Detailed Predictions for: Horseshoe
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 36.472708, -118.115092, 9085
LZ Altitude (f): 3640
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 5 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Tue 38 38 NNW 5 6 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 38 38 NW 5 5 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 38 38 NW 5 5 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 38 38 NNW 3 4 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 38 38 NW 3 5 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 38 38 NW 2 3 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 38 38 NW 2 2 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 37 37 WNW 2 2 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 40 40 WNW 2 3 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 46 47 WNW 2 2 6471 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 48 49 SE 3 5 7441 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 49 51 SE 3 5 8530 9085 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Tue 50 52 SE 3 5 9252 9085 0 Blue 2
1 PM Tue 50 52 SE 5 8 9252 9085 0 Blue 2
2 PM Tue 50 51 SE 5 6 8530 9085 0 Blue 1
3 PM Tue 49 49 SSE 5 8 7441 9085 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 47 47 S 5 9 6471 9085 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 44 44 SSW 5 9 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 42 42 SW 5 9 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 41 41 SW 5 10 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 40 40 SW 6 10 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 40 40 SW 6 11 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 40 40 SW 8 11 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 40 40 SW 8 11 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 39 39 WSW 8 11 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 39 39 WSW 8 11 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 39 39 WSW 9 12 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 39 39 WSW 10 13 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 39 39 WSW 10 14 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 38 38 WSW 8 12 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 38 38 WSW 9 12 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 37 37 WSW 9 13 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 39 39 WSW 11 17 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 44 44 SW 14 23 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 48 49 SW 18 28 7441 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 50 51 SW 23 34 8530 9085 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Wed 50 52 SSW 26 40 9252 9085 0 Blue 2
1 PM Wed 50 51 SSW 29 44 8530 9085 0 Blue 1
2 PM Wed 49 50 SW 31 46 7910 9085 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 48 48 WSW 31 46 6961 9085 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 46 46 WSW 29 44 5969 9085 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 43 43 WSW 29 46 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 40 40 WSW 31 46 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 38 38 WSW 29 44 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 37 37 WSW 27 41 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 37 37 W 25 37 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 37 37 W 21 33 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 37 37 W 18 28 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 36 36 W 16 25 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 36 36 W 13 21 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 36 36 W 12 19 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 35 35 W 11 18 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 35 35 W 11 17 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 34 34 W 11 16 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 33 33 W 10 14 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 33 33 W 10 13 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 35 35 W 10 13 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 39 39 W 9 13 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 42 43 W 9 13 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 44 45 W 9 12 5455 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 45 47 W 8 11 6471 9085 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 45 46 WSW 8 11 5969 9085 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 44 45 W 9 11 5455 9085 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 43 43 W 9 12 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 41 41 WNW 10 13 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 38 38 WNW 10 14 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 35 35 W 10 14 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 33 33 W 10 16 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 32 32 W 10 17 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 32 32 W 11 17 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 32 32 W 11 17 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 32 32 W 11 17 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 31 31 W 10 16 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 31 31 W 10 14 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 30 30 W 10 13 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 30 30 WNW 9 13 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 29 29 WNW 9 13 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 28 28 WNW 9 13 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 28 28 NW 10 14 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 28 28 NW 10 14 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 30 30 NW 10 14 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 33 33 NNW 10 16 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 36 37 N 10 16 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 38 40 N 10 16 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 39 41 N 10 16 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 39 41 N 10 16 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 39 40 N 10 14 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 38 38 WNW 10 14 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 36 36 W 10 13 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 34 34 W 10 13 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 31 31 WNW 9 13 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 29 29 WNW 9 13 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 28 28 WNW 9 13 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 28 28 NW 9 13 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 28 28 NW 9 13 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 28 28 NW 9 13 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 28 28 NNW 8 12 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 28 28 NNW 8 12 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 28 28 NNW 8 12 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 27 27 NNW 9 13 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 27 27 NNW 9 13 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 27 27 NNW 9 13 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 27 27 NNW 8 12 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 28 28 NNW 8 12 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 31 31 NNW 8 12 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 35 35 N 9 12 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 38 39 N 9 12 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 40 41 N 9 12 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 41 42 N 9 13 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 42 43 N 9 13 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 42 43 N 9 13 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 41 41 NW 9 12 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 40 40 WNW 9 12 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 38 38 NW 9 12 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 35 35 NW 9 12 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 33 33 NW 9 12 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 32 32 NW 9 12 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 33 33 NW 9 13 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 33 33 NW 9 13 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 33 33 NW 9 13 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 34 34 NW 9 12 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 34 34 NW 9 12 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 34 34 NW 9 12 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 34 34 WNW 9 13 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 34 34 WNW 9 13 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 34 34 WNW 9 13 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 34 34 NW 9 12 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 35 35 NW 9 12 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 38 38 NW 9 12 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 41 41 NNW 9 13 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 44 45 NNW 9 13 5455 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 46 47 NNW 9 13 6471 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 47 48 N 9 14 6961 9085 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 47 48 N 9 14 6961 9085 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 46 46 NNW 9 14 5969 9085 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 45 45 NW 9 13 5455 9085 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 43 43 NW 9 13 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 41 41 NW 9 13 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 38 38 NW 9 12 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 36 36 NW 9 12 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 36 36 NW 9 12 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 36 36 NW 9 13 5075 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 36 36 NW 9 13 5075 9085 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]