Detailed Predictions for: Horseshoe
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 36.472708, -118.115092, 9085
LZ Altitude (f): 3640
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time UTC:

241105/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 41 41 WNW 9 11 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 40 40 WNW 8 11 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 39 39 WNW 8 10 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 39 39 NW 9 11 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 40 40 NW 9 11 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 39 39 NW 9 12 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 40 40 NW 10 13 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 40 40 NW 10 13 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 45 45 N 6 12 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 49 50 N 5 12 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 51 52 NNE 5 11 7140 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 52 54 NNE 6 12 7268 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 52 54 NNE 8 12 7268 9085 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 52 54 NNE 9 12 7268 9085 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 53 54 NNE 8 12 7268 9085 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 51 51 NNE 8 11 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 50 50 N 6 10 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 47 47 NNW 5 10 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 42 42 NW 8 11 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 41 41 NW 10 12 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 39 39 NW 10 14 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 38 38 NW 11 16 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 37 37 NW 13 18 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 36 36 NW 14 21 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 34 34 NW 17 24 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 32 32 NW 18 26 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 31 31 NW 20 29 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 29 29 NW 21 31 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 29 29 NW 21 32 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 28 28 NW 25 34 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 27 27 NNW 25 35 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 28 28 NNW 23 34 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 30 30 NNW 21 32 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 33 34 N 19 28 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 35 37 N 18 25 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 37 40 N 17 23 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 38 41 N 17 21 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 38 41 N 16 20 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 38 40 N 14 19 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 37 38 N 14 19 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 36 36 N 13 19 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 34 34 NNW 13 19 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 32 32 NNW 13 19 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 30 30 NW 13 19 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 29 29 NW 13 19 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 29 29 NW 13 20 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 29 29 NW 13 20 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 29 29 NW 13 20 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 28 28 NW 13 19 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 28 28 NW 13 19 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 28 28 NW 13 19 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 29 29 NW 14 20 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 29 29 NW 14 20 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 29 29 NW 14 20 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 29 29 NW 13 19 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 30 30 NW 12 18 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 33 33 NNW 11 17 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 37 38 N 11 14 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 41 43 N 10 13 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 44 47 NNE 10 12 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 45 48 NNE 10 12 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 46 49 NNE 10 12 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 46 48 NE 9 11 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 46 47 NE 8 11 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 44 44 NE 6 10 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 41 41 NNE 6 10 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 38 38 NW 8 10 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 36 36 W 8 10 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 35 35 W 8 10 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 35 35 WNW 8 10 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 35 35 WNW 8 10 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 35 35 WNW 8 10 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 34 34 W 6 9 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 34 34 W 6 9 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 34 34 W 6 9 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 34 34 W 8 10 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 34 34 W 8 10 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 34 34 W 8 10 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 34 34 W 6 10 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 36 36 W 5 9 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 40 40 WSW 4 8 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 45 46 SSE 4 6 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 49 51 E 4 5 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 51 54 ESE 5 6 7268 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 52 55 ESE 5 8 7333 9085 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 52 55 SE 6 9 7333 9085 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 52 54 SE 6 9 7268 9085 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 52 53 SSE 5 9 7204 9085 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 50 50 SSE 5 9 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 47 47 S 5 8 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 43 43 SSW 5 8 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 40 40 SSW 5 6 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 39 39 SSW 5 6 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 39 39 SW 5 6 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 39 39 SW 5 6 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 39 39 SW 5 6 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 39 39 SSW 5 6 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 39 39 SSW 5 6 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 39 39 SW 5 6 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 39 39 SW 5 8 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 39 39 WSW 5 8 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 38 38 WSW 5 8 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 38 38 WSW 5 9 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 39 39 WSW 5 9 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 42 42 SW 5 9 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 47 48 S 4 8 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 51 53 SE 4 8 7204 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 53 55 SE 5 9 7333 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 55 57 SE 6 10 7857 9085 0 Blue 2
1 PM Sat 55 56 SE 8 11 7546 9085 0 Blue 1
2 PM Sat 55 56 SSE 8 11 7546 9085 0 Blue 1
3 PM Sat 54 54 SSE 6 11 7268 9085 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 52 52 SSE 6 10 7140 9085 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 48 48 S 6 10 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 44 44 WSW 6 9 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 41 41 W 6 9 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 40 40 W 8 10 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 40 40 WNW 8 10 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 40 40 WNW 9 11 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 40 40 WNW 9 11 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 39 39 WNW 9 11 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 39 39 WNW 9 11 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 39 39 WNW 9 12 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 39 39 WNW 10 13 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 39 39 WNW 10 13 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 38 38 WNW 9 13 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 38 38 NW 8 12 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 39 39 NW 6 11 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 42 42 NNW 5 10 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 46 47 N 4 9 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 50 52 N 4 8 7140 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 52 54 NE 5 9 7268 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 54 57 E 6 10 7857 9085 0 Blue 2
1 PM Sun 54 56 ESE 8 11 7546 9085 0 Blue 1
2 PM Sun 54 55 SE 8 11 7333 9085 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 53 53 SE 6 11 7204 9085 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 51 51 SSE 6 11 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 48 48 S 6 10 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 44 44 WSW 6 9 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 41 41 W 6 9 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 40 40 W 6 9 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 41 41 W 8 10 7113 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 41 41 W 9 11 7113 9085 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]