Detailed Predictions for: Horseshoe
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 36.472708, -118.115092, 9085
LZ Altitude (f): 3640
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

21 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 53 53 NW 13 18 6676 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 53 53 NW 13 18 6676 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 53 53 NW 11 16 6676 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 52 52 NW 11 16 6676 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 52 52 NW 11 16 6676 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 51 51 NW 10 14 6676 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 50 50 NW 9 12 6676 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 50 50 WNW 10 14 6676 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 55 55 NW 9 13 6676 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 61 62 NNE 9 12 6676 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 64 67 ENE 9 12 8068 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 66 70 E 10 13 8978 9085 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Tue 67 73 E 11 17 9869 9085 0 Blue 6
1 PM Tue 70 76 ESE 13 20 10817 9847 762 Blue 9
2 PM Tue 70 75 SE 14 23 10469 9554 469 Blue 8
3 PM Tue 70 74 SE 17 25 10163 9260 175 Blue 7
4 PM Tue 71 73 SE 17 26 9869 9085 0 Blue 6
5 PM Tue 71 72 SSE 13 21 9574 9085 0 Blue 5
6 PM Tue 69 69 SSE 11 18 8677 9085 0 Blue 2
7 PM Tue 65 65 SW 10 14 7448 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 63 63 W 12 17 6819 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 57 57 W 11 16 6676 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 57 57 W 10 14 6676 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 57 57 W 9 12 6676 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 58 58 W 9 12 6676 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 57 57 W 9 12 6676 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 56 56 W 11 16 6676 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 56 56 W 11 16 6676 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 55 55 W 12 17 6676 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 55 55 W 12 17 6676 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 54 54 W 11 16 6676 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 54 54 WNW 10 13 6676 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 59 59 WNW 9 12 6676 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 65 66 NNW 8 11 7759 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 67 70 NE 8 11 8978 9085 0 Blue 3
11 AM Wed 69 73 ENE 8 12 9869 9085 0 Blue 6
12 Noon Wed 71 76 E 10 16 10817 9847 762 Blue 9
1 PM Wed 72 77 ESE 12 19 11161 10137 1052 Blue 10
2 PM Wed 72 76 ESE 14 23 10817 9847 762 Blue 9
3 PM Wed 73 76 ESE 16 24 10817 9847 762 Blue 9
4 PM Wed 73 75 ESE 14 23 10469 9554 469 Blue 8
5 PM Wed 72 73 ESE 14 21 9869 9085 0 Blue 6
6 PM Wed 69 69 SSE 14 21 8677 9085 0 Blue 2
7 PM Wed 66 66 WSW 14 20 7759 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 63 63 WNW 13 19 6819 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 61 61 WNW 12 17 6676 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 59 59 WNW 11 14 6676 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 58 58 WNW 10 12 6676 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 57 57 WNW 10 12 6676 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 57 57 WNW 10 12 6676 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 56 56 WNW 10 12 6676 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 55 55 WNW 10 12 6676 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 53 53 WNW 10 12 6676 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 53 53 WNW 10 12 6676 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 54 54 NW 10 13 6676 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 55 55 NW 10 14 6676 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 58 58 NNW 10 16 6676 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 61 62 NNW 10 16 6676 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 64 67 N 10 14 8068 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 67 71 NNE 10 13 9277 9085 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Thu 69 74 NNE 11 13 10163 9260 175 Blue 7
1 PM Thu 69 74 NE 11 14 10163 9260 175 Blue 7
2 PM Thu 70 75 ENE 12 14 10469 9554 469 Blue 8
3 PM Thu 70 74 ENE 12 14 10163 9260 175 Blue 7
4 PM Thu 70 72 NE 11 13 9574 9085 0 Blue 5
5 PM Thu 69 70 NE 11 13 8978 9085 0 Blue 3
6 PM Thu 67 67 NNE 11 13 8068 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 64 64 N 10 14 7135 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 62 62 NNW 10 14 6676 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 59 59 NNW 9 14 6676 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 58 58 NW 8 13 6676 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 56 56 NW 8 13 6676 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 56 56 NW 8 13 6676 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 56 56 NW 9 12 6676 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 56 56 NW 10 12 6676 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 55 55 NW 10 12 6676 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 55 55 NW 10 13 6676 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 55 55 NW 10 13 6676 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 56 56 NNW 9 13 6676 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 57 57 NNW 8 12 6676 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 60 60 NNW 8 12 6676 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 63 64 N 8 12 7135 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 66 69 NNE 9 12 8677 9085 0 Blue 2
11 AM Fri 69 73 NE 10 13 9869 9085 0 Blue 6
12 Noon Fri 71 76 ENE 11 14 10817 9847 762 Blue 9
1 PM Fri 71 76 ENE 12 14 10817 9847 762 Blue 9
2 PM Fri 71 76 E 13 16 10817 9847 762 Blue 9
3 PM Fri 72 76 E 13 16 10817 9847 762 Blue 9
4 PM Fri 72 74 ESE 12 16 10163 9260 175 Blue 7
5 PM Fri 71 72 ESE 11 16 9574 9085 0 Blue 5
6 PM Fri 69 69 SSE 11 14 8677 9085 0 Blue 2
7 PM Fri 66 66 WSW 10 13 7759 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 63 63 WNW 10 12 6819 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 61 61 WNW 9 11 6676 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 59 59 WNW 8 10 6676 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 58 58 WNW 6 10 6676 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 57 57 WNW 6 10 6676 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 57 57 WNW 8 11 6676 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 57 57 WNW 9 11 6676 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 56 56 WNW 10 11 6676 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 55 55 WNW 10 12 6676 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 55 55 WNW 10 12 6676 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 56 56 WNW 9 12 6676 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 58 58 WNW 9 11 6676 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 60 60 WNW 8 11 6676 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 63 64 WSW 8 11 7135 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 66 68 SSE 8 11 8374 9085 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sat 68 71 ESE 9 12 9277 9085 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Sat 70 73 ESE 10 13 9869 9085 0 Blue 6
1 PM Sat 70 74 SE 12 13 10163 9260 175 Blue 7
2 PM Sat 70 73 SE 13 14 9869 9085 0 Blue 6
3 PM Sat 71 73 SSE 13 16 9869 9085 0 Blue 6
4 PM Sat 70 71 S 13 17 9277 9085 0 Blue 4
5 PM Sat 69 69 S 13 17 8677 9085 0 Blue 2
6 PM Sat 67 67 S 13 17 8068 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 65 65 SW 12 17 7448 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 63 63 SW 11 16 6819 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 60 60 WSW 10 14 6676 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 59 59 W 9 12 6676 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 57 57 WNW 8 11 6676 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 56 56 WNW 8 10 6676 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 55 55 W 9 10 6676 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 55 55 W 9 10 6676 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 54 54 W 9 10 6676 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 54 54 WNW 9 10 6676 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 54 54 WNW 9 10 6676 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 55 55 WNW 8 10 6676 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 57 57 WNW 6 10 6676 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 59 59 WNW 5 10 6676 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 62 63 NNW 5 10 6819 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 65 67 ENE 6 10 8068 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 67 70 E 8 11 8978 9085 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Sun 69 72 ESE 9 13 9574 9085 0 Blue 5
1 PM Sun 69 73 SE 11 16 9869 9085 0 Blue 6
2 PM Sun 69 72 SE 12 17 9574 9085 0 Blue 5
3 PM Sun 70 73 SE 12 18 9869 9085 0 Blue 6
4 PM Sun 69 70 SSE 12 18 8978 9085 0 Blue 3
5 PM Sun 68 68 SSE 12 17 8374 9085 0 Blue 1
6 PM Sun 66 66 S 12 16 7759 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 64 64 SSW 11 13 7135 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 61 61 SW 10 12 6676 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 59 59 WSW 9 11 6676 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 57 57 W 8 11 6676 9085 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]