Detailed Predictions for: La Cumbre Peak
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.4946, -119.713218, 3960
LZ Altitude (f): 695
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

21 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 73 73 ENE 10 12 3374 3960 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 73 73 ENE 10 12 3374 3960 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 72 72 ENE 12 17 3177 3960 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 72 72 ENE 12 17 3177 3960 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 71 71 ENE 12 17 2979 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 70 70 ESE 13 20 2781 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 70 70 ESE 13 20 2781 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 69 69 ESE 13 20 2582 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 71 71 ESE 13 20 2979 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 74 75 ESE 13 20 4488 3960 0 Blue 1
10 AM Tue 77 80 ESE 13 20 5948 5497 1537 Blue 6
11 AM Tue 80 84 SE 13 20 6535 6082 2122 Blue 10
12 Noon Tue 81 86 SE 13 20 6985 6374 2414 Blue 12
1 PM Tue 83 89 SE 13 20 7868 6950 2990 Blue 15
2 PM Tue 85 90 WSW 9 13 8159 7244 3284 Blue 16
3 PM Tue 85 89 WSW 9 13 7868 6950 2990 Blue 15
4 PM Tue 85 88 WSW 9 13 7576 6665 2705 Blue 14
5 PM Tue 84 85 S 4 5 6686 6228 2268 Blue 11
6 PM Tue 84 84 S 4 5 6535 6082 2122 Blue 10
7 PM Tue 81 81 S 4 5 6095 5644 1684 Blue 7
8 PM Tue 80 80 S 4 5 5948 5497 1537 Blue 6
9 PM Tue 80 80 S 4 5 5948 5497 1537 Blue 6
10 PM Tue 78 78 S 4 5 5654 4463 503 Blue 4
11 PM Tue 77 77 ESE 6 8 5508 3960 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Wed 77 77 ESE 6 8 5508 3960 0 Blue 3
1 AM Wed 76 76 ESE 6 8 5175 3960 0 Blue 2
2 AM Wed 75 75 NNE 4 5 4488 3960 0 Blue 1
3 AM Wed 75 75 NNE 4 5 4488 3960 0 Blue 1
4 AM Wed 74 74 NNE 4 5 3806 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 73 73 NNE 4 5 3374 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 72 72 NNE 4 5 3177 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 71 71 NNE 4 5 2979 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 73 73 NNE 4 5 3374 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 76 77 NNE 4 5 5508 3960 0 Blue 3
10 AM Wed 80 82 NNE 4 5 6242 5790 1830 Blue 8
11 AM Wed 82 86 SW 5 9 6985 6374 2414 Blue 12
12 Noon Wed 84 89 SW 5 9 7868 6950 2990 Blue 15
1 PM Wed 86 91 SW 5 9 8446 7536 3576 Blue 17
2 PM Wed 88 93 WSW 6 10 9015 8114 4154 Blue 19
3 PM Wed 88 92 WSW 6 10 8732 7826 3866 Blue 18
4 PM Wed 88 90 WSW 6 10 8159 7244 3284 Blue 16
5 PM Wed 87 88 WSW 6 10 7576 6665 2705 Blue 14
6 PM Wed 86 86 WSW 6 10 6985 6374 2414 Blue 12
7 PM Wed 82 82 WSW 6 10 6242 5790 1830 Blue 8
8 PM Wed 82 82 WSW 6 10 6242 5790 1830 Blue 8
9 PM Wed 81 81 WSW 6 10 6095 5644 1684 Blue 7
10 PM Wed 78 78 WSW 6 10 5654 4463 503 Blue 4
11 PM Wed 77 77 NNE 1 1 5508 3960 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Thu 77 77 NNE 1 1 5508 3960 0 Blue 3
1 AM Thu 75 75 NNE 1 1 4488 3960 0 Blue 1
2 AM Thu 74 74 NNE 1 1 3806 3960 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 74 74 NNE 1 1 3806 3960 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 73 73 NNE 1 1 3374 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 70 70 NNE 1 1 2781 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 70 70 NNE 1 1 2781 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 68 68 NNE 1 1 2546 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 70 70 NNE 1 1 2781 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 72 73 NNE 1 1 3374 3960 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 75 78 NNE 1 1 5654 4463 503 Blue 4
11 AM Thu 77 81 SW 5 9 6095 5644 1684 Blue 7
12 Noon Thu 78 83 SW 5 9 6388 5936 1976 Blue 9
1 PM Thu 79 84 SW 5 9 6535 6082 2122 Blue 10
2 PM Thu 81 86 SW 5 9 6985 6374 2414 Blue 12
3 PM Thu 81 85 SW 5 9 6686 6228 2268 Blue 11
4 PM Thu 81 83 SW 5 9 6388 5936 1976 Blue 9
5 PM Thu 80 81 WSW 11 17 6095 5644 1684 Blue 7
6 PM Thu 79 79 WSW 11 17 5801 5081 1121 Blue 5
7 PM Thu 77 77 WSW 11 17 5508 3960 0 Blue 3
8 PM Thu 76 76 WSW 11 17 5175 3960 0 Blue 2
9 PM Thu 76 76 WSW 11 17 5175 3960 0 Blue 2
10 PM Thu 74 74 WSW 11 17 3806 3960 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 73 73 NE 5 6 3374 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 72 72 NE 5 6 3177 3960 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 71 71 NE 5 6 2979 3960 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 71 71 NE 5 6 2979 3960 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 71 71 NE 5 6 2979 3960 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 69 69 NE 5 6 2582 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 68 68 ENE 6 9 2546 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 67 67 ENE 6 9 2546 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 66 66 ENE 6 9 2546 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 68 68 E 4 5 2546 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 70 71 E 4 5 2979 3960 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 73 75 E 4 5 4488 3960 0 Blue 1
11 AM Fri 75 79 SSW 8 10 5801 5081 1121 Blue 5
12 Noon Fri 77 82 SSW 8 10 6242 5790 1830 Blue 8
1 PM Fri 78 83 SSW 8 10 6388 5936 1976 Blue 9
2 PM Fri 80 85 SW 9 11 6686 6228 2268 Blue 11
3 PM Fri 80 84 SW 9 11 6535 6082 2122 Blue 10
4 PM Fri 80 82 SW 9 11 6242 5790 1830 Blue 8
5 PM Fri 79 80 WSW 10 13 5948 5497 1537 Blue 6
6 PM Fri 79 79 WSW 10 13 5801 5081 1121 Blue 5
7 PM Fri 77 77 WSW 10 13 5508 3960 0 Blue 3
8 PM Fri 76 76 WNW 10 13 5175 3960 0 Blue 2
9 PM Fri 76 76 WNW 10 13 5175 3960 0 Blue 2
10 PM Fri 74 74 WNW 10 13 3806 3960 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 74 74 N 5 8 3806 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 73 73 N 5 8 3374 3960 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 72 72 N 5 8 3177 3960 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 72 72 N 5 8 3177 3960 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 72 72 N 5 8 3177 3960 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 71 71 N 5 8 2979 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 69 69 N 5 8 2582 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 69 69 N 5 8 2582 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 68 68 N 5 8 2546 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 69 69 SW 5 8 2582 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 71 72 SW 5 8 3177 3960 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 73 75 SW 5 8 4488 3960 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sat 75 78 SSW 6 9 5654 4463 503 Blue 4
12 Noon Sat 76 80 SSW 6 9 5948 5497 1537 Blue 6
1 PM Sat 77 81 SSW 6 9 6095 5644 1684 Blue 7
2 PM Sat 78 82 SW 9 11 6242 5790 1830 Blue 8
3 PM Sat 78 81 SW 9 11 6095 5644 1684 Blue 7
4 PM Sat 78 80 SW 9 11 5948 5497 1537 Blue 6
5 PM Sat 77 78 WSW 9 12 5654 4463 503 Blue 4
6 PM Sat 77 77 WSW 9 12 5508 3960 0 Blue 3
7 PM Sat 75 75 WSW 9 12 4488 3960 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sat 74 74 W 9 12 3806 3960 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 74 74 W 9 12 3806 3960 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 72 72 W 9 12 3177 3960 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 72 72 NNW 5 8 3177 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 71 71 NNW 5 8 2979 3960 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 70 70 NNW 5 8 2781 3960 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 70 70 NNW 5 8 2781 3960 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 70 70 NNW 5 8 2781 3960 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 69 69 NNW 5 8 2582 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 67 67 N 4 5 2546 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 67 67 N 4 5 2546 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 66 66 N 4 5 2546 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 67 67 SSE 4 5 2546 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 69 70 SSE 4 5 2781 3960 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 71 73 SSE 4 5 3374 3960 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 73 77 SSW 8 10 5508 3960 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Sun 74 79 SSW 8 10 5801 5081 1121 Blue 5
1 PM Sun 75 80 SSW 8 10 5948 5497 1537 Blue 6
2 PM Sun 76 81 SW 9 11 6095 5644 1684 Blue 7
3 PM Sun 76 80 SW 9 11 5948 5497 1537 Blue 6
4 PM Sun 76 78 SW 9 11 5654 4463 503 Blue 4
5 PM Sun 75 76 WSW 10 13 5175 3960 0 Blue 2
6 PM Sun 75 75 WSW 10 13 4488 3960 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sun 72 72 WSW 10 13 3177 3960 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 72 72 W 9 12 3177 3960 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 72 72 W 9 12 3177 3960 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 70 70 W 9 12 2781 3960 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]