Detailed Predictions for: La Cumbre Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 3960
LZ Altitude (f): 695
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

19 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 52 52 NE 18 2792 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 52 52 NE 18 2792 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 55 55 NE 18 2792 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 53 53 N 13 2792 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 61 62 N 13 3662 3960 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 68 70 N 13 6220 4529 569 Blue 7
11 AM Sat 73 76 SW 14 8817 7493 3533 Blue 13
12 Noon Sat 75 79 SW 14 9705 8737 4777 Blue 16
1 PM Sat 78 82 SW 14 10031 9683 5723 Blue 19
2 PM Sat 79 83 N 22 10139 9791 5831 Blue 20
3 PM Sat 79 82 N 22 10031 9683 5723 Blue 19
4 PM Sat 79 80 N 22 9814 9176 5216 Blue 17
5 PM Sat 76 76 E 22 8817 7493 3533 Blue 13
6 PM Sat 74 74 E 22 7977 6631 2671 Blue 11
7 PM Sat 73 73 E 22 7552 6171 2211 Blue 10
8 PM Sat 70 70 NE 22 6220 4529 569 Blue 7
9 PM Sat 69 69 NE 22 5688 4362 402 Blue 6
10 PM Sat 66 66 NE 22 4368 3960 0 Blue 3
11 PM Sat 66 66 NE 28 4368 3960 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Sun 65 65 NE 28 4200 3960 0 Blue 2
1 AM Sun 66 66 NE 28 4368 3960 0 Blue 3
2 AM Sun 68 68 NE 28 4718 4195 235 Blue 5
3 AM Sun 67 67 NE 28 4536 4027 67 Blue 4
4 AM Sun 65 65 NE 28 4200 3960 0 Blue 2
5 AM Sun 63 63 NE 22 3857 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 63 63 NE 22 3857 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 65 65 NE 22 4200 3960 0 Blue 2
8 AM Sun 64 64 NE 22 4031 3960 0 Blue 1
9 AM Sun 69 70 NE 22 6220 4529 569 Blue 7
10 AM Sun 74 76 NE 22 8817 7493 3533 Blue 13
11 AM Sun 77 80 NE 7 9814 9176 5216 Blue 17
12 Noon Sun 78 82 NE 7 10031 9683 5723 Blue 19
1 PM Sun 80 84 NE 7 10224 9899 5939 Blue 21
2 PM Sun 81 85 NE 8 10317 10007 6047 Blue 22
3 PM Sun 81 84 NE 8 10224 9899 5939 Blue 21
4 PM Sun 81 82 NE 8 10031 9683 5723 Blue 19
5 PM Sun 77 77 NE 15 9261 7913 3953 Blue 14
6 PM Sun 75 75 NE 15 8394 7066 3106 Blue 12
7 PM Sun 74 74 NE 15 7977 6631 2671 Blue 11
8 PM Sun 70 70 NE 15 6220 4529 569 Blue 7
9 PM Sun 69 69 NE 15 5688 4362 402 Blue 6
10 PM Sun 66 66 NE 15 4368 3960 0 Blue 3
11 PM Sun 66 66 NE 15 4368 3960 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Mon 65 65 NE 15 4200 3960 0 Blue 2
1 AM Mon 66 66 NE 15 4368 3960 0 Blue 3
2 AM Mon 68 68 NE 15 4718 4195 235 Blue 5
3 AM Mon 66 66 NE 15 4368 3960 0 Blue 3
4 AM Mon 65 65 NE 15 4200 3960 0 Blue 2
5 AM Mon 62 62 NE 9 3662 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 62 62 NE 9 3662 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 63 63 NE 9 3857 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 62 62 NE 9 3662 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 65 66 NE 9 4368 3960 0 Blue 3
10 AM Mon 68 70 NE 9 6220 4529 569 Blue 7
11 AM Mon 70 73 W 8 7552 6171 2211 Blue 10
12 Noon Mon 70 74 W 8 7977 6631 2671 Blue 11
1 PM Mon 72 76 W 8 8817 7493 3533 Blue 13
2 PM Mon 72 76 W 8 8817 7493 3533 Blue 13
3 PM Mon 72 75 W 8 8394 7066 3106 Blue 12
4 PM Mon 72 73 W 8 7552 6171 2211 Blue 10
5 PM Mon 71 71 NW 8 6679 4696 736 Blue 8
6 PM Mon 70 70 NW 8 6220 4529 569 Blue 7
7 PM Mon 70 70 NW 8 6220 4529 569 Blue 7
8 PM Mon 69 69 NW 8 5688 4362 402 Blue 6
9 PM Mon 68 68 NW 8 4718 4195 235 Blue 5
10 PM Mon 67 67 NW 8 4536 4027 67 Blue 4
11 PM Mon 67 67 NE 9 4536 4027 67 Blue 4
12 Midnight Tue 67 67 NE 9 4536 4027 67 Blue 4
1 AM Tue 67 67 NE 9 4536 4027 67 Blue 4
2 AM Tue 68 68 NE 9 4718 4195 235 Blue 5
3 AM Tue 67 67 NE 9 4536 4027 67 Blue 4
4 AM Tue 67 67 NE 9 4536 4027 67 Blue 4
5 AM Tue 66 66 NE 8 4368 3960 0 Blue 3
6 AM Tue 66 66 NE 8 4368 3960 0 Blue 3
7 AM Tue 67 67 NE 8 4536 4027 67 Blue 4
8 AM Tue 67 67 NE 8 4536 4027 67 Blue 4
9 AM Tue 70 71 NE 8 6679 4696 736 Blue 8
10 AM Tue 74 76 NE 8 8817 7493 3533 Blue 13
11 AM Tue 76 79 W 10 9705 8737 4777 Blue 16
12 Noon Tue 77 81 W 10 9922 9574 5614 Blue 18
1 PM Tue 79 83 W 10 10139 9791 5831 Blue 20
2 PM Tue 79 83 W 10 10139 9791 5831 Blue 20
3 PM Tue 79 82 W 10 10031 9683 5723 Blue 19
4 PM Tue 79 80 W 10 9814 9176 5216 Blue 17
5 PM Tue 76 76 NW 12 8817 7493 3533 Blue 13
6 PM Tue 74 74 NW 12 7977 6631 2671 Blue 11
7 PM Tue 73 73 NW 12 7552 6171 2211 Blue 10
8 PM Tue 71 71 NW 12 6679 4696 736 Blue 8
9 PM Tue 69 69 NW 12 5688 4362 402 Blue 6
10 PM Tue 67 67 NW 12 4536 4027 67 Blue 4
11 PM Tue 67 67 N 7 4536 4027 67 Blue 4
12 Midnight Wed 66 66 N 7 4368 3960 0 Blue 3
1 AM Wed 67 67 N 7 4536 4027 67 Blue 4
2 AM Wed 69 69 N 7 5688 4362 402 Blue 6
3 AM Wed 67 67 N 7 4536 4027 67 Blue 4
4 AM Wed 66 66 N 7 4368 3960 0 Blue 3
5 AM Wed 64 64 N 7 4031 3960 0 Blue 1
6 AM Wed 64 64 N 7 4031 3960 0 Blue 1
7 AM Wed 66 66 N 7 4368 3960 0 Blue 3
8 AM Wed 65 65 N 7 4200 3960 0 Blue 2
9 AM Wed 71 72 N 7 7120 5647 1687 Blue 9
10 AM Wed 77 79 N 7 9705 8737 4777 Blue 16
11 AM Wed 81 84 NW 10 10224 9899 5939 Blue 21
12 Noon Wed 82 86 NW 10 10491 10115 6155 Blue 23
1 PM Wed 84 88 NW 10 10968 10278 6318 Blue 25
2 PM Wed 85 89 NW 10 11207 10450 6490 Blue 26
3 PM Wed 84 87 NW 10 10728 10210 6250 Blue 24
4 PM Wed 85 86 NW 10 10491 10115 6155 Blue 23
5 PM Wed 80 80 NW 10 9814 9176 5216 Blue 17
6 PM Wed 77 77 NW 10 9261 7913 3953 Blue 14
7 PM Wed 75 75 NW 10 8394 7066 3106 Blue 12
8 PM Wed 71 71 NW 10 6679 4696 736 Blue 8
9 PM Wed 69 69 NW 10 5688 4362 402 Blue 6
10 PM Wed 65 65 NW 10 4200 3960 0 Blue 2
11 PM Wed 65 65 NE 7 4200 3960 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Thu 64 64 NE 7 4031 3960 0 Blue 1
1 AM Thu 65 65 NE 7 4200 3960 0 Blue 2
2 AM Thu 68 68 NE 7 4718 4195 235 Blue 5
3 AM Thu 66 66 NE 7 4368 3960 0 Blue 3
4 AM Thu 63 63 NE 7 3857 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 60 60 NE 9 3272 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 60 60 NE 9 3272 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 62 62 NE 9 3662 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 61 61 NE 9 3467 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 68 69 NE 9 5688 4362 402 Blue 6
10 AM Thu 74 76 NE 9 8817 7493 3533 Blue 13
11 AM Thu 79 82 SE 8 10031 9683 5723 Blue 19
12 Noon Thu 80 84 SE 8 10224 9899 5939 Blue 21
1 PM Thu 83 87 SE 8 10728 10210 6250 Blue 24
2 PM Thu 84 88 SE 8 10968 10278 6318 Blue 25
3 PM Thu 84 87 SE 8 10728 10210 6250 Blue 24
4 PM Thu 84 85 SE 8 10317 10007 6047 Blue 22
5 PM Thu 80 80 N 9 9814 9176 5216 Blue 17
6 PM Thu 77 77 N 9 9261 7913 3953 Blue 14
7 PM Thu 75 75 N 9 8394 7066 3106 Blue 12
8 PM Thu 72 72 N 9 7120 5647 1687 Blue 9
9 PM Thu 70 70 N 9 6220 4529 569 Blue 7
10 PM Thu 66 66 N 9 4368 3960 0 Blue 3
11 PM Thu 67 67 NE 9 4536 4027 67 Blue 4
12 Midnight Fri 65 65 NE 9 4200 3960 0 Blue 2
1 AM Fri 66 66 NE 9 4368 3960 0 Blue 3
2 AM Fri 69 69 NE 9 5688 4362 402 Blue 6
3 AM Fri 67 67 NE 9 4536 4027 67 Blue 4
4 AM Fri 65 65 NE 9 4200 3960 0 Blue 2

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]