Detailed Predictions for: La Cumbre Peak
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.4946, -119.713218, 3960
LZ Altitude (f): 695
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time UTC:

 250511/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Sun 67 67 NNW 9 11 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 67 67 NNW 9 11 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 67 67 NNE 8 10 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 65 65 NNE 8 10 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 65 65 NNE 8 10 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 64 64 NE 8 9 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 64 64 NE 8 9 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 66 66 NE 8 9 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 71 71 ESE 4 5 3325 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 75 77 ESE 4 5 5276 4533 573 Blue 6
10 AM Sun 75 78 ESE 4 5 5445 4929 969 Blue 7
11 AM Sun 76 81 SW 8 9 6924 5433 1473 Blue 10
12 Noon Sun 76 82 SW 8 9 8466 5601 1641 Blue 11
1 PM Sun 76 83 SW 8 9 10202 5768 1808 Blue 12
2 PM Sun 78 84 WNW 14 19 12649 6777 2817 Blue 13
3 PM Sun 75 80 WNW 14 19 5782 5265 1305 Blue 9
4 PM Sun 75 78 WNW 14 19 5445 4929 969 Blue 7
5 PM Sun 72 74 NW 16 21 4551 3960 0 Blue 3
6 PM Sun 69 69 NW 16 21 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 65 65 NW 16 21 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 63 63 NNW 12 17 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 62 62 NNW 12 17 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 62 62 NNW 12 17 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 60 60 N 11 16 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 60 60 N 11 16 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 59 59 N 11 16 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 58 58 N 10 13 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 57 57 N 10 13 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 55 55 N 10 13 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 54 54 NNW 12 17 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 54 54 NNW 12 17 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 55 55 NNW 12 17 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 58 59 WNW 10 13 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 58 60 WNW 10 13 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 58 62 WNW 10 13 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 59 63 W 13 18 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 61 66 W 13 18 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 61 66 W 13 18 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 61 66 WNW 13 18 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 60 64 WNW 13 18 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 58 60 WNW 13 18 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 56 57 WNW 16 21 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 52 52 WNW 16 21 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 49 49 WNW 16 21 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 47 47 WNW 18 24 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 45 45 WNW 18 24 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 45 45 WNW 18 24 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 45 45 NW 16 21 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 46 46 NW 16 21 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 46 46 NW 16 21 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 45 45 N 12 17 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 45 45 N 12 17 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 44 44 N 12 17 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 44 44 NNW 11 17 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 46 46 NNW 11 17 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 48 48 NNW 11 17 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 50 51 NW 10 16 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 52 54 NW 10 16 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 54 57 NW 10 16 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 55 61 W 11 17 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 57 64 W 11 17 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 58 65 W 11 17 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 60 67 W 13 20 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 61 66 W 13 20 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 61 65 W 13 20 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 59 61 WNW 17 26 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 56 56 WNW 17 26 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 52 52 WNW 17 26 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 49 49 NW 17 26 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 48 48 NW 17 26 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 48 48 NW 17 26 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 49 49 NNW 13 20 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 49 49 NNW 13 20 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 48 48 NNW 13 20 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 47 47 N 11 17 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 46 46 N 11 17 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 46 46 N 11 17 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 47 47 N 10 16 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 49 49 N 10 16 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 52 52 N 10 16 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 55 56 NNE 5 9 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 57 59 NNE 5 9 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 59 63 NNE 5 9 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 60 66 SW 5 9 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 61 68 SW 5 9 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 62 70 SW 5 9 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 62 69 WSW 8 12 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 63 69 WSW 8 12 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 63 67 WSW 8 12 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 62 64 W 10 16 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 59 60 W 10 16 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 56 56 W 10 16 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 53 53 WNW 11 17 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 52 52 WNW 11 17 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 51 51 WNW 11 17 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 51 51 NNW 10 16 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 50 50 NNW 10 16 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 50 50 NNW 10 16 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 49 49 N 8 12 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 48 48 N 8 12 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 48 48 N 8 12 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 49 49 NNE 5 9 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 50 50 NNE 5 9 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 53 53 NNE 5 9 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 55 56 ESE 4 6 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 58 60 ESE 4 6 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 60 64 ESE 4 6 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 62 68 SSW 6 10 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 63 70 SSW 6 10 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 64 71 SSW 6 10 3325 3960 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 64 71 SW 6 10 3325 3960 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 64 69 SW 6 10 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 64 68 SW 6 10 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 62 64 WSW 8 12 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 59 59 WSW 8 12 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 57 57 WSW 8 12 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 54 54 W 6 10 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 54 54 W 6 10 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 54 54 W 6 10 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 54 54 N 5 9 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 54 54 N 5 9 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 52 52 N 5 9 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 51 51 ENE 5 9 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 50 50 ENE 5 9 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 50 50 ENE 5 9 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 51 51 E 3 5 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 52 52 E 3 5 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 54 54 E 3 5 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 55 56 SSE 3 5 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 57 59 SSE 3 5 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 58 62 SSE 3 5 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 60 64 S 6 10 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 61 66 S 6 10 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 61 66 S 6 10 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 62 67 SW 8 12 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 62 66 SW 8 12 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 61 63 SW 8 12 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 60 61 WSW 8 12 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 56 56 WSW 8 12 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 53 53 WSW 8 12 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 50 50 W 6 10 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 50 50 W 6 10 3109 3960 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 51 51 W 6 10 3109 3960 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]