Detailed Predictions for: La Cumbre Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 3960
LZ Altitude (f): 695
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

2 DEC 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 56 56 NE 6 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 56 56 NE 6 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 56 56 NE 6 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 56 56 N 6 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 55 55 N 6 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 57 57 N 6 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 59 60 SW 7 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 61 62 SW 7 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 62 63 SW 7 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 63 64 W 9 2663 3960 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 64 65 W 9 2888 3960 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 62 62 W 9 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 60 60 NW 9 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 57 57 NW 9 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 55 55 NW 9 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 53 53 E 6 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 51 51 E 6 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 49 49 E 6 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 49 49 E 8 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 48 48 E 8 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 50 50 E 8 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 48 48 SE 3 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 48 48 SE 3 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 48 48 SE 3 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 47 47 SE 3 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 47 47 SE 3 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 47 47 SE 3 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 47 47 SE 3 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 46 46 SE 3 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 48 48 SE 3 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 51 52 W 6 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 54 55 W 6 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 56 58 W 6 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 57 58 W 6 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 58 59 W 6 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 57 57 W 6 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 55 55 NE 7 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 53 53 NE 7 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 52 52 NE 7 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 51 51 N 12 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 49 49 N 12 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 48 48 N 12 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 48 48 NE 9 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 48 48 NE 9 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 49 49 NE 9 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 47 47 NE 9 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 47 47 NE 9 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 47 47 NE 9 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 47 47 NE 10 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 47 47 NE 10 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 47 47 NE 10 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 47 47 NE 9 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 46 46 NE 9 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 49 49 NE 9 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 53 54 E 8 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 57 59 E 8 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 58 60 E 8 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 60 62 NE 10 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 61 62 NE 10 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 60 60 NE 10 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 58 58 NW 10 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 57 57 NW 10 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 56 56 NW 10 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 55 55 NW 14 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 53 53 NW 14 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 52 52 NW 14 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 52 52 N 13 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 51 51 N 13 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 52 52 N 13 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 51 51 N 12 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 51 51 N 12 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 51 51 N 12 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 50 50 N 9 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 51 51 N 9 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 51 51 N 9 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 51 51 N 8 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 50 50 N 8 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 53 53 N 8 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 56 57 NE 7 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 59 61 NE 7 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 61 63 NE 7 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 62 64 W 8 2663 3960 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 63 64 W 8 2663 3960 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 62 62 W 8 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 60 60 NW 7 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 58 58 NW 7 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 57 57 NW 7 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 55 55 N 13 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 53 53 N 13 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 52 52 N 13 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 52 52 N 12 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 52 52 N 12 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 53 53 N 12 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 51 51 N 10 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 51 51 N 10 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 51 51 N 10 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 51 51 N 9 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 51 51 N 9 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 51 51 N 9 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 51 51 N 8 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 50 50 N 8 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 53 53 N 8 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 56 57 W 7 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 59 61 W 7 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 61 63 W 7 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 62 64 W 8 2663 3960 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 63 64 W 8 2663 3960 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 62 62 W 8 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 60 60 W 7 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 58 58 W 7 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 57 57 W 7 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 56 56 N 13 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 54 54 N 13 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 53 53 N 13 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 53 53 N 10 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 53 53 N 10 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 54 54 N 10 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 52 52 NE 8 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 52 52 NE 8 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 52 52 NE 8 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 52 52 NE 8 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 52 52 NE 8 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 52 52 NE 8 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 52 52 NE 8 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 51 51 NE 8 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 53 53 NE 8 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 56 57 E 7 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 59 61 E 7 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 61 63 E 7 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 62 64 SW 8 2663 3960 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 63 64 SW 8 2663 3960 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 62 62 SW 8 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 60 60 NW 8 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 59 59 NW 8 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 58 58 NW 8 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 57 57 N 15 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 55 55 N 15 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 54 54 N 15 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 54 54 NE 13 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 53 53 NE 13 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 54 54 NE 13 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 53 53 NE 8 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 53 53 NE 8 2625 3960 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 53 53 NE 8 2625 3960 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]