Detailed Predictions for: La Cumbre Peak
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.4946, -119.713218, 3960
LZ Altitude (f): 695
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 5 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Tue 58 58 NE 6 8 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 61 61 E 8 9 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 61 61 E 8 9 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 61 61 E 8 9 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 58 58 ENE 8 9 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 58 58 ENE 8 9 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 56 56 ENE 8 9 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 58 58 SE 6 8 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 58 58 SE 6 8 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 64 65 SE 6 8 3258 3960 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 71 72 SSE 6 8 7712 6314 2354 Blue 6
11 AM Tue 73 75 SSE 6 8 9494 7649 3689 Blue 9
12 Noon Tue 75 77 SSE 6 8 10228 8724 4764 Blue 10
1 PM Tue 75 77 SSE 8 9 10228 8724 4764 Blue 10
2 PM Tue 75 76 SSE 8 9 10004 8078 4118 Blue 9
3 PM Tue 73 73 SSE 8 9 8159 6768 2808 Blue 7
4 PM Tue 70 70 ENE 8 9 6820 5377 1417 Blue 4
5 PM Tue 64 64 ENE 8 9 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 62 62 ENE 8 9 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 60 60 NNE 8 9 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 62 62 NNE 8 9 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 60 60 NNE 8 9 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 62 62 ENE 6 8 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 62 62 ENE 6 8 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 62 62 ENE 6 8 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 62 62 ENE 8 9 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 60 60 ENE 8 9 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 60 60 ENE 8 9 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 60 60 ESE 8 9 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 59 59 ESE 8 9 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 57 57 ESE 8 9 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 57 57 E 5 6 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 55 55 E 5 6 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 59 59 E 5 6 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 63 65 SW 6 8 3258 3960 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 68 70 SW 6 8 6820 5377 1417 Blue 4
12 Noon Wed 69 71 SW 6 8 7270 5851 1891 Blue 5
1 PM Wed 68 70 WNW 9 11 6820 5377 1417 Blue 4
2 PM Wed 67 68 WNW 9 11 5890 3960 0 Blue 2
3 PM Wed 65 65 WNW 9 11 3258 3960 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 62 62 NW 9 11 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 60 60 NW 9 11 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 58 58 NW 9 11 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 56 56 N 9 11 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 57 57 N 9 11 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 57 57 N 9 11 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 58 58 N 8 10 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 58 58 N 8 10 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 56 56 N 8 10 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 55 55 NNE 12 16 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 53 53 NNE 12 16 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 52 52 NNE 12 16 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 51 51 N 16 21 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 50 50 N 16 21 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 49 49 N 16 21 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 49 49 N 17 23 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 50 50 N 17 23 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 53 53 N 17 23 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 56 57 N 13 18 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 59 61 N 13 18 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 61 63 N 13 18 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 62 63 NNW 16 21 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 61 62 NNW 16 21 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 59 59 NNW 16 21 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 57 57 N 18 24 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 55 55 N 18 24 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 53 53 N 18 24 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 52 52 N 21 29 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 51 51 N 21 29 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 50 50 N 21 29 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 50 50 N 25 34 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 50 50 N 25 34 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 49 49 N 25 34 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 48 48 N 21 29 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 47 47 N 21 29 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 46 46 N 21 29 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 45 45 N 23 31 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 44 44 N 23 31 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 43 43 N 23 31 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 43 43 N 16 21 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 45 45 N 16 21 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 47 47 N 16 21 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 51 52 N 12 17 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 54 56 N 12 17 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 57 59 N 12 17 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 58 60 NNW 10 13 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 57 58 NNW 10 13 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 55 55 NNW 10 13 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 52 52 N 10 13 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 49 49 N 10 13 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 46 46 N 10 13 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 44 44 N 12 17 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 43 43 N 12 17 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 43 43 N 12 17 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 44 44 NNE 12 17 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 44 44 NNE 12 17 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 45 45 NNE 12 17 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 45 45 NNE 11 14 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 45 45 NNE 11 14 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 44 44 NNE 11 14 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 44 44 NNE 10 13 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 43 43 NNE 10 13 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 44 44 NNE 10 13 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 45 45 NNE 9 12 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 49 49 NNE 9 12 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 53 53 NNE 9 12 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 57 58 N 6 9 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 60 62 N 6 9 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 62 64 N 6 9 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 62 64 WSW 9 12 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 60 61 WSW 9 12 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 57 57 WSW 9 12 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 54 54 WNW 9 12 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 51 51 WNW 9 12 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 49 49 WNW 9 12 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 48 48 N 10 13 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 48 48 N 10 13 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 48 48 N 10 13 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 48 48 NNE 10 13 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 48 48 NNE 10 13 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 48 48 NNE 10 13 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 48 48 NNE 9 12 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 48 48 NNE 9 12 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 48 48 NNE 9 12 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 48 48 NNE 10 13 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 47 47 NNE 10 13 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 47 47 NNE 10 13 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 48 48 NNE 10 13 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 50 50 NNE 10 13 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 54 54 NNE 10 13 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 58 59 N 10 13 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 62 63 N 10 13 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 64 65 N 10 13 3258 3960 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 65 66 NW 10 13 4681 3960 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 64 65 NW 10 13 3258 3960 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 61 61 NW 10 13 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 58 58 NNW 10 13 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 55 55 NNW 10 13 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 53 53 NNW 10 13 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 52 52 N 11 14 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 52 52 N 11 14 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 53 53 N 11 14 2717 3960 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 53 53 N 11 14 2717 3960 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]