Detailed Predictions for: La Cumbre Peak
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.4946, -119.713218, 3960
LZ Altitude (f): 695
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

19 JUN 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 63 63 NNE 11 14 3156 3960 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 63 63 NNE 11 14 3156 3960 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 63 63 N 6 6 3156 3960 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 62 62 N 6 6 3156 3960 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 62 62 N 6 6 3156 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 62 62 N 4 4 3156 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 60 60 N 4 4 3156 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 62 62 N 4 4 3156 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 66 67 NW 5 5 3223 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 67 70 NW 5 5 4891 3960 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 68 73 NW 5 5 6539 4861 901 Blue 3
11 AM Wed 70 76 WSW 8 9 8051 6485 2525 Blue 6
12 Noon Wed 70 78 WSW 8 9 8998 7492 3532 Blue 8
1 PM Wed 71 79 WSW 8 9 9456 7977 4017 Blue 9
2 PM Wed 72 80 W 11 14 9905 8450 4490 Blue 10
3 PM Wed 73 79 W 11 14 9456 7977 4017 Blue 9
4 PM Wed 73 78 W 11 14 8998 7492 3532 Blue 8
5 PM Wed 73 76 WNW 13 18 8051 6485 2525 Blue 6
6 PM Wed 71 72 WNW 13 18 6007 3960 0 Blue 2
7 PM Wed 69 69 WNW 13 18 3722 3960 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 67 67 NW 11 14 3223 3960 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 64 64 NW 11 14 3156 3960 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 63 63 NW 11 14 3156 3960 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 63 63 NNW 10 12 3156 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 63 63 NNW 10 12 3156 3960 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 63 63 NNW 10 12 3156 3960 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 62 62 N 8 9 3156 3960 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 61 61 N 8 9 3156 3960 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 61 61 N 8 9 3156 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 60 60 NNE 6 6 3156 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 60 60 NNE 6 6 3156 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 63 63 NNE 6 6 3156 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 68 69 W 3 3 3722 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 70 73 W 3 3 6539 4861 901 Blue 3
10 AM Thu 72 77 W 3 3 8530 6995 3035 Blue 7
11 AM Thu 72 78 SW 5 5 8998 7492 3532 Blue 8
12 Noon Thu 73 81 SW 5 5 10742 8913 4953 Blue 11
1 PM Thu 74 82 SW 5 5 10867 9366 5406 Blue 12
2 PM Thu 75 83 WSW 6 6 10992 9811 5851 Blue 13
3 PM Thu 76 82 WSW 6 6 10867 9366 5406 Blue 12
4 PM Thu 76 81 WSW 6 6 10742 8913 4953 Blue 11
5 PM Thu 75 78 W 10 12 8998 7492 3532 Blue 8
6 PM Thu 73 74 W 10 12 7056 5419 1459 Blue 4
7 PM Thu 71 71 W 10 12 5458 3960 0 Blue 1
8 PM Thu 68 68 NW 10 12 3473 3960 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 66 66 NW 10 12 3156 3960 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 66 66 NW 10 12 3156 3960 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 65 65 N 10 12 3156 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 65 65 N 10 12 3156 3960 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 65 65 N 10 12 3156 3960 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 65 65 N 9 11 3156 3960 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 65 65 N 9 11 3156 3960 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 65 65 N 9 11 3156 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 65 65 NNE 6 6 3156 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 64 64 NNE 6 6 3156 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 68 68 NNE 6 6 3473 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 75 76 NNE 4 4 8051 6485 2525 Blue 6
9 AM Fri 76 79 NNE 4 4 9456 7977 4017 Blue 9
10 AM Fri 78 83 NNE 4 4 10992 9811 5851 Blue 13
11 AM Fri 78 84 WSW 4 4 11117 10501 6541 Blue 14
12 Noon Fri 79 87 WSW 4 4 11701 11085 7125 Blue 17
1 PM Fri 81 89 WSW 4 4 12803 11333 7373 Blue 19
2 PM Fri 81 89 WSW 5 5 12803 11333 7373 Blue 19
3 PM Fri 82 88 WSW 5 5 12369 11209 7249 Blue 18
4 PM Fri 82 87 WSW 5 5 11701 11085 7125 Blue 17
5 PM Fri 81 84 W 5 5 11117 10501 6541 Blue 14
6 PM Fri 80 81 W 5 5 10742 8913 4953 Blue 11
7 PM Fri 76 76 W 5 5 8051 6485 2525 Blue 6
8 PM Fri 72 72 NW 5 5 6007 3960 0 Blue 2
9 PM Fri 68 68 NW 5 5 3473 3960 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 68 68 NW 5 5 3473 3960 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 68 68 NNE 5 5 3473 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 68 68 NNE 5 5 3473 3960 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 68 68 NNE 5 5 3473 3960 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 68 68 NE 5 5 3473 3960 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 68 68 NE 5 5 3473 3960 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 67 67 NE 5 5 3223 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 66 66 ENE 5 9 3156 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 68 68 ENE 5 9 3473 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 72 72 ENE 5 9 6007 3960 0 Blue 2
8 AM Sat 76 77 SE 4 6 8530 6995 3035 Blue 7
9 AM Sat 79 82 SE 4 6 10867 9366 5406 Blue 12
10 AM Sat 80 85 SE 4 6 11242 10836 6876 Blue 15
11 AM Sat 81 87 S 5 9 11701 11085 7125 Blue 17
12 Noon Sat 83 91 S 5 9 14086 12186 8226 Blue 21
1 PM Sat 84 92 S 5 9 14480 12668 8708 Blue 22
2 PM Sat 84 92 SSW 5 9 14480 12668 8708 Blue 22
3 PM Sat 83 89 SSW 5 9 12803 11333 7373 Blue 19
4 PM Sat 80 85 SSW 5 9 11242 10836 6876 Blue 15
5 PM Sat 77 80 SW 5 9 9905 8450 4490 Blue 10
6 PM Sat 75 76 SW 5 9 8051 6485 2525 Blue 6
7 PM Sat 73 73 SW 5 9 6539 4861 901 Blue 3
8 PM Sat 71 71 WSW 4 6 5458 3960 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sat 71 71 WSW 4 6 5458 3960 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sat 71 71 WSW 4 6 5458 3960 0 Blue 1
11 PM Sat 71 71 ENE 3 5 5458 3960 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sun 71 71 ENE 3 5 5458 3960 0 Blue 1
1 AM Sun 71 71 ENE 3 5 5458 3960 0 Blue 1
2 AM Sun 70 70 E 3 5 4891 3960 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 70 70 E 3 5 4891 3960 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 69 69 E 3 5 3722 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 69 69 ENE 3 5 3722 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 71 71 ENE 3 5 5458 3960 0 Blue 1
7 AM Sun 73 73 ENE 3 5 6539 4861 901 Blue 3
8 AM Sun 75 76 S 2 3 8051 6485 2525 Blue 6
9 AM Sun 78 81 S 2 3 10742 8913 4953 Blue 11
10 AM Sun 80 85 S 2 3 11242 10836 6876 Blue 15
11 AM Sun 82 88 SSW 5 9 12369 11209 7249 Blue 18
12 Noon Sun 84 92 SSW 5 9 14480 12668 8708 Blue 22
1 PM Sun 85 93 SSW 5 9 14811 13152 9192 Blue 23
2 PM Sun 85 93 SW 5 9 14811 13152 9192 Blue 23
3 PM Sun 83 89 SW 5 9 12803 11333 7373 Blue 19
4 PM Sun 81 86 SW 5 9 11367 10960 7000 Blue 16
5 PM Sun 78 81 SW 5 9 10742 8913 4953 Blue 11
6 PM Sun 76 77 SW 5 9 8530 6995 3035 Blue 7
7 PM Sun 74 74 SW 5 9 7056 5419 1459 Blue 4
8 PM Sun 73 73 W 4 6 6539 4861 901 Blue 3
9 PM Sun 73 73 W 4 6 6539 4861 901 Blue 3
10 PM Sun 74 74 W 4 6 7056 5419 1459 Blue 4
11 PM Sun 74 74 N 3 5 7056 5419 1459 Blue 4
12 Midnight Mon 74 74 N 3 5 7056 5419 1459 Blue 4
1 AM Mon 73 73 N 3 5 6539 4861 901 Blue 3
2 AM Mon 72 72 NE 2 3 6007 3960 0 Blue 2
3 AM Mon 71 71 NE 2 3 5458 3960 0 Blue 1
4 AM Mon 71 71 NE 2 3 5458 3960 0 Blue 1
5 AM Mon 71 71 NNE 2 3 5458 3960 0 Blue 1
6 AM Mon 72 72 NNE 2 3 6007 3960 0 Blue 2
7 AM Mon 72 72 NNE 2 3 6007 3960 0 Blue 2
8 AM Mon 74 75 SW 2 3 7560 5960 2000 Blue 5
9 AM Mon 75 78 SW 2 3 8998 7492 3532 Blue 8
10 AM Mon 77 82 SW 2 3 10867 9366 5406 Blue 12
11 AM Mon 79 85 SW 4 6 11242 10836 6876 Blue 15
12 Noon Mon 81 89 SW 4 6 12803 11333 7373 Blue 19
1 PM Mon 82 90 SW 4 6 13391 11509 7549 Blue 20
2 PM Mon 82 90 SW 5 9 13391 11509 7549 Blue 20
3 PM Mon 80 86 SW 5 9 11367 10960 7000 Blue 16
4 PM Mon 77 82 SW 5 9 10867 9366 5406 Blue 12
5 PM Mon 75 78 WSW 6 10 8998 7492 3532 Blue 8
6 PM Mon 72 73 WSW 6 10 6539 4861 901 Blue 3
7 PM Mon 70 70 WSW 6 10 4891 3960 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 70 70 W 5 9 4891 3960 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 69 69 W 5 9 3722 3960 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 69 69 W 5 9 3722 3960 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]