Detailed Predictions for: La Cumbre Peak
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.4946, -119.713218, 3960
LZ Altitude (f): 695
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

23 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 69 69 ESE 5 6 3737 3960 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 68 68 ESE 5 6 3515 3960 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 66 66 ESE 4 5 3324 3960 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 66 66 ESE 4 5 3324 3960 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 65 65 ESE 4 5 3229 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 64 64 SE 5 6 3134 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 63 63 SE 5 6 3081 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 64 64 SE 5 6 3134 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 66 67 SSE 6 8 3419 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 68 70 SSE 6 8 3991 3960 0 Blue 1
10 AM Wed 69 73 SSE 6 8 4434 3988 28 Blue 4
11 AM Wed 70 75 S 9 11 5415 4274 314 Blue 6
12 Noon Wed 70 76 S 9 11 5658 4427 467 Blue 7
1 PM Wed 71 78 S 9 11 6875 5399 1439 Blue 9
2 PM Wed 71 77 SSW 10 12 5983 5157 1197 Blue 8
3 PM Wed 72 77 SSW 10 12 5983 5157 1197 Blue 8
4 PM Wed 72 76 SSW 10 12 5658 4427 467 Blue 7
5 PM Wed 70 73 WSW 8 9 4434 3988 28 Blue 4
6 PM Wed 70 71 WSW 8 9 4135 3960 0 Blue 2
7 PM Wed 69 69 WSW 8 9 3737 3960 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 68 68 SW 8 9 3515 3960 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 67 67 SW 8 9 3419 3960 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 66 66 SW 8 9 3324 3960 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 65 65 ESE 6 8 3229 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 64 64 ESE 6 8 3134 3960 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 63 63 ESE 6 8 3081 3960 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 62 62 ESE 6 8 3081 3960 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 62 62 ESE 6 8 3081 3960 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 61 61 ESE 6 8 3081 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 61 61 ESE 5 6 3081 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 60 60 ESE 5 6 3081 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 61 61 ESE 5 6 3081 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 65 66 SE 6 8 3324 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 68 70 SE 6 8 3991 3960 0 Blue 1
10 AM Thu 69 72 SE 6 8 4278 3960 0 Blue 3
11 AM Thu 70 76 SSW 8 9 5658 4427 467 Blue 7
12 Noon Thu 71 79 SSW 8 9 7333 5640 1680 Blue 10
1 PM Thu 72 80 SSW 8 9 7782 5901 1941 Blue 11
2 PM Thu 73 81 WSW 9 11 8080 6784 2824 Blue 12
3 PM Thu 74 80 WSW 9 11 7782 5901 1941 Blue 11
4 PM Thu 74 79 WSW 9 11 7333 5640 1680 Blue 10
5 PM Thu 73 76 WSW 8 9 5658 4427 467 Blue 7
6 PM Thu 72 73 WSW 8 9 4434 3988 28 Blue 4
7 PM Thu 71 71 WSW 8 9 4135 3960 0 Blue 2
8 PM Thu 70 70 WNW 6 8 3991 3960 0 Blue 1
9 PM Thu 69 69 WNW 6 8 3737 3960 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 68 68 WNW 6 8 3515 3960 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 67 67 NNE 4 5 3419 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 67 67 NNE 4 5 3419 3960 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 66 66 NNE 4 5 3324 3960 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 65 65 N 4 5 3229 3960 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 65 65 N 4 5 3229 3960 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 64 64 N 4 5 3134 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 64 64 N 4 5 3134 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 63 63 N 4 5 3081 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 64 64 N 4 5 3134 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 68 69 WSW 5 6 3737 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 71 74 WSW 5 6 5172 4131 171 Blue 5
10 AM Fri 72 77 WSW 5 6 5983 5157 1197 Blue 8
11 AM Fri 73 80 WSW 8 9 7782 5901 1941 Blue 11
12 Noon Fri 74 82 WSW 8 9 8275 7275 3315 Blue 13
1 PM Fri 75 84 WSW 8 9 8680 8050 4090 Blue 15
2 PM Fri 76 84 WNW 10 12 8680 8050 4090 Blue 15
3 PM Fri 77 84 WNW 10 12 8680 8050 4090 Blue 15
4 PM Fri 77 82 WNW 10 12 8275 7275 3315 Blue 13
5 PM Fri 75 78 WNW 12 17 6875 5399 1439 Blue 9
6 PM Fri 75 76 WNW 12 17 5658 4427 467 Blue 7
7 PM Fri 74 74 WNW 12 17 5172 4131 171 Blue 5
8 PM Fri 73 73 NW 12 17 4434 3988 28 Blue 4
9 PM Fri 72 72 NW 12 17 4278 3960 0 Blue 3
10 PM Fri 71 71 NW 12 17 4135 3960 0 Blue 2
11 PM Fri 70 70 N 11 14 3991 3960 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sat 69 69 N 11 14 3737 3960 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 68 68 N 11 14 3515 3960 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 67 67 N 9 11 3419 3960 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 67 67 N 9 11 3419 3960 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 66 66 N 9 11 3324 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 66 66 NNE 9 11 3324 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 65 65 NNE 9 11 3229 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 67 67 NNE 9 11 3419 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 72 73 N 8 10 4434 3988 28 Blue 4
9 AM Sat 75 78 N 8 10 6875 5399 1439 Blue 9
10 AM Sat 76 81 N 8 10 8080 6784 2824 Blue 12
11 AM Sat 78 85 WSW 9 11 9339 8244 4284 Blue 16
12 Noon Sat 80 88 WSW 9 11 10354 9214 5254 Blue 19
1 PM Sat 80 89 WSW 9 11 10843 9664 5704 Blue 20
2 PM Sat 82 90 WSW 10 13 11475 9982 6022 Blue 21
3 PM Sat 83 90 WSW 10 13 11475 9982 6022 Blue 21
4 PM Sat 83 88 WSW 10 13 10354 9214 5254 Blue 19
5 PM Sat 82 85 W 13 18 9339 8244 4284 Blue 16
6 PM Sat 81 82 W 13 18 8275 7275 3315 Blue 13
7 PM Sat 81 81 W 13 18 8080 6784 2824 Blue 12
8 PM Sat 80 80 NW 13 18 7782 5901 1941 Blue 11
9 PM Sat 79 79 NW 13 18 7333 5640 1680 Blue 10
10 PM Sat 79 79 NW 13 18 7333 5640 1680 Blue 10
11 PM Sat 78 78 N 11 14 6875 5399 1439 Blue 9
12 Midnight Sun 78 78 N 11 14 6875 5399 1439 Blue 9
1 AM Sun 77 77 N 11 14 5983 5157 1197 Blue 8
2 AM Sun 76 76 NE 10 13 5658 4427 467 Blue 7
3 AM Sun 76 76 NE 10 13 5658 4427 467 Blue 7
4 AM Sun 76 76 NE 10 13 5658 4427 467 Blue 7
5 AM Sun 76 76 NNE 10 13 5658 4427 467 Blue 7
6 AM Sun 75 75 NNE 10 13 5415 4274 314 Blue 6
7 AM Sun 76 76 NNE 10 13 5658 4427 467 Blue 7
8 AM Sun 80 81 NNE 8 10 8080 6784 2824 Blue 12
9 AM Sun 82 85 NNE 8 10 9339 8244 4284 Blue 16
10 AM Sun 82 87 NNE 8 10 10052 8631 4671 Blue 18
11 AM Sun 84 91 SW 8 10 12079 10294 6334 Blue 22
12 Noon Sun 85 93 SW 8 10 13215 11312 7352 Blue 24
1 PM Sun 85 94 SW 8 10 13752 11910 7950 Blue 25
2 PM Sun 86 94 WSW 9 12 13752 11910 7950 Blue 25
3 PM Sun 87 94 WSW 9 12 13752 11910 7950 Blue 25
4 PM Sun 87 92 WSW 9 12 12658 10686 6726 Blue 23
5 PM Sun 85 88 W 13 18 10354 9214 5254 Blue 19
6 PM Sun 84 85 W 13 18 9339 8244 4284 Blue 16
7 PM Sun 84 84 W 13 18 8680 8050 4090 Blue 15
8 PM Sun 82 82 WNW 13 18 8275 7275 3315 Blue 13
9 PM Sun 81 81 WNW 13 18 8080 6784 2824 Blue 12
10 PM Sun 80 80 WNW 13 18 7782 5901 1941 Blue 11
11 PM Sun 79 79 NE 10 13 7333 5640 1680 Blue 10
12 Midnight Mon 78 78 NE 10 13 6875 5399 1439 Blue 9
1 AM Mon 77 77 NE 10 13 5983 5157 1197 Blue 8
2 AM Mon 76 76 NE 9 11 5658 4427 467 Blue 7
3 AM Mon 76 76 NE 9 11 5658 4427 467 Blue 7
4 AM Mon 76 76 NE 9 11 5658 4427 467 Blue 7
5 AM Mon 75 75 N 9 11 5415 4274 314 Blue 6
6 AM Mon 74 74 N 9 11 5172 4131 171 Blue 5
7 AM Mon 75 75 N 9 11 5415 4274 314 Blue 6
8 AM Mon 79 80 NNW 6 9 7782 5901 1941 Blue 11
9 AM Mon 81 84 NNW 6 9 8680 8050 4090 Blue 15
10 AM Mon 82 87 NNW 6 9 10052 8631 4671 Blue 18
11 AM Mon 84 91 SW 8 10 12079 10294 6334 Blue 22
12 Noon Mon 85 93 SW 8 10 13215 11312 7352 Blue 24
1 PM Mon 85 93 SW 8 10 13215 11312 7352 Blue 24
2 PM Mon 86 94 WSW 9 13 13752 11910 7950 Blue 25
3 PM Mon 87 94 WSW 9 13 13752 11910 7950 Blue 25
4 PM Mon 87 92 WSW 9 13 12658 10686 6726 Blue 23
5 PM Mon 85 88 WSW 12 18 10354 9214 5254 Blue 19
6 PM Mon 84 85 WSW 12 18 9339 8244 4284 Blue 16
7 PM Mon 83 83 WSW 12 18 8470 7718 3758 Blue 14
8 PM Mon 82 82 WNW 14 19 8275 7275 3315 Blue 13
9 PM Mon 81 81 WNW 14 19 8080 6784 2824 Blue 12
10 PM Mon 80 80 WNW 14 19 7782 5901 1941 Blue 11

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]