Detailed Predictions for: Malibu - Castro Peak
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.08528, -118.7783, 2600
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 5 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Tue 60 50 NE 9 12 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 60 50 ENE 11 14 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 59 49 ENE 11 14 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 57 47 ENE 11 14 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 59 49 NE 11 14 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 59 49 NE 11 14 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 57 47 NE 11 14 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 55 45 NE 11 16 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 59 49 NE 11 16 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 65 56 NE 11 16 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 68 59 E 9 11 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 72 64 E 9 11 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 75 67 E 9 11 1706 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 75 67 SE 10 13 1706 2600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 75 66 SE 10 13 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 74 64 SE 10 13 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 71 61 NE 9 11 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 68 58 NE 9 11 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 67 57 NE 9 11 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 65 55 NNE 6 8 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 65 55 NNE 6 8 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 64 54 NNE 6 8 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 63 53 NE 6 8 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 63 53 NE 6 8 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 62 52 NE 6 8 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 61 51 NE 6 8 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 59 49 NE 6 8 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 59 49 NE 6 8 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 58 48 ENE 5 6 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 59 49 ENE 5 6 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 58 48 ENE 5 6 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 57 47 ENE 4 5 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 61 51 ENE 4 5 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 65 56 ENE 4 5 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 66 58 E 8 9 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 69 61 E 8 9 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 70 62 E 8 9 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 70 62 WSW 11 14 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 69 60 WSW 11 14 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 67 57 WSW 11 14 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 65 55 SW 6 8 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 63 53 SW 6 8 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 61 51 SW 6 8 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 60 50 WNW 6 8 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 59 49 WNW 6 8 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 58 48 WNW 6 8 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 58 48 N 4 5 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 57 47 N 4 5 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 57 47 N 4 5 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 57 47 NNE 5 6 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 56 46 NNE 5 6 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 55 45 NNE 5 6 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 54 44 NNE 5 8 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 53 43 NNE 5 8 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 52 42 NNE 5 8 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 52 42 NNE 5 8 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 54 44 NNE 5 8 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 56 47 NNE 5 8 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 59 50 N 6 9 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 60 52 N 6 9 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 62 54 N 6 9 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 62 54 WNW 10 13 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 62 53 WNW 10 13 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 62 52 WNW 10 13 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 61 51 WNW 11 16 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 60 50 WNW 11 16 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 59 49 WNW 11 16 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 57 47 N 10 13 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 56 46 N 10 13 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 54 44 N 10 13 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 53 43 N 12 17 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 52 42 N 12 17 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 52 42 N 12 17 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 52 42 N 13 18 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 51 41 N 13 18 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 50 40 N 13 18 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 50 40 N 11 16 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 49 39 N 11 16 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 48 38 N 11 16 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 48 38 NNE 11 16 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 50 40 NNE 11 16 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 53 44 NNE 11 16 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 56 48 NNE 12 17 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 58 50 NNE 12 17 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 60 52 NNE 12 17 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 62 54 N 12 17 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 62 53 N 12 17 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 61 51 N 12 17 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 60 50 NNW 13 18 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 59 49 NNW 13 18 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 58 48 NNW 13 18 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 57 47 N 11 16 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 55 45 N 11 16 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 55 45 N 11 16 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 54 44 NNE 12 17 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 54 44 NNE 12 17 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 54 44 NNE 12 17 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 54 44 NNE 13 18 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 54 44 NNE 13 18 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 53 43 NNE 13 18 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 53 43 NNE 12 17 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 52 42 NNE 12 17 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 51 41 NNE 12 17 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 51 41 NNE 12 17 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 53 43 NNE 12 17 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 56 47 NNE 12 17 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 59 50 NNE 12 17 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 62 54 NNE 12 17 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 64 56 NNE 12 17 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 65 57 NNE 12 17 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 65 56 NNE 12 17 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 64 54 NNE 12 17 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 63 53 N 10 13 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 62 52 N 10 13 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 61 51 N 10 13 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 59 49 N 10 13 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 58 48 N 10 13 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 57 47 N 10 13 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 57 47 N 11 16 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 56 46 N 11 16 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 56 46 N 11 16 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 55 45 NNE 12 17 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 55 45 NNE 12 17 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 55 45 NNE 12 17 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 54 44 NNE 11 16 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 53 43 NNE 11 16 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 52 42 NNE 11 16 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 53 43 NNE 11 16 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 55 45 NNE 11 16 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 59 49 NNE 11 16 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 63 54 NNE 10 13 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 65 56 NNE 10 13 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 67 59 NNE 10 13 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 68 59 N 9 12 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 68 59 N 9 12 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 68 58 N 9 12 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 66 56 NW 10 13 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 65 55 NW 10 13 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 63 53 NW 10 13 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 61 51 N 9 12 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 60 50 N 9 12 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 59 49 N 9 12 1542 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 58 48 NNE 10 13 1542 2600 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]