Detailed Predictions for: Malibu - Castro Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 2600
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

2 DEC 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 56 46 NE 22 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 56 46 NE 22 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 57 47 NE 22 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 56 46 NE 23 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 59 49 NE 23 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 61 52 NE 23 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 63 54 NE 22 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 65 56 NE 22 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 67 58 NE 22 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 67 58 NE 20 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 68 59 NE 20 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 68 58 NE 20 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 65 55 NE 22 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 61 51 NE 22 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 60 50 NE 22 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 59 49 NE 22 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 58 48 NE 22 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 57 47 NE 22 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 55 45 NE 26 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 53 43 NE 26 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 54 44 NE 26 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 52 42 NE 37 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 51 41 NE 37 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 50 40 NE 37 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 49 39 NE 39 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 49 39 NE 39 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 50 40 NE 39 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 49 39 NE 39 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 53 43 NE 39 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 55 45 NE 39 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 57 48 NE 36 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 59 51 NE 36 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 61 53 NE 36 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 62 53 NE 32 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 63 54 NE 32 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 63 53 NE 32 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 61 51 NE 32 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 58 48 NE 32 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 57 47 NE 32 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 56 46 NE 28 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 55 45 NE 28 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 55 45 NE 28 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 54 44 NE 32 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 52 42 NE 32 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 53 43 NE 32 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 51 41 NE 31 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 50 40 NE 31 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 50 40 NE 31 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 49 39 NE 26 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 49 39 NE 26 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 50 40 NE 26 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 49 39 NE 26 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 54 44 NE 26 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 56 46 NE 26 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 59 50 NE 24 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 61 53 NE 24 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 64 56 NE 24 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 65 57 N 20 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 66 57 N 20 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 66 56 N 20 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 64 54 N 17 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 61 51 N 17 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 59 49 N 17 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 59 49 N 16 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 58 48 N 16 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 57 47 N 16 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 56 46 N 16 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 54 44 N 16 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 55 45 N 16 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 53 43 N 16 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 52 42 N 16 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 52 42 N 16 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 51 41 NE 16 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 51 41 NE 16 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 52 42 NE 16 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 51 41 NE 17 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 55 45 NE 17 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 58 49 NE 17 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 61 53 NE 17 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 63 55 NE 17 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 65 57 NE 17 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 66 58 N 12 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 67 58 N 12 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 67 57 N 12 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 65 55 N 14 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 62 52 N 14 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 60 50 N 14 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 60 50 N 12 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 59 49 N 12 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 58 48 N 12 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 57 47 N 13 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 55 45 N 13 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 56 46 N 13 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 54 44 N 13 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 53 43 N 13 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 53 43 N 13 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 52 42 NE 14 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 52 42 NE 14 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 53 43 NE 14 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 52 42 N 16 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 57 47 N 16 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 59 50 N 16 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 62 53 NE 15 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 64 56 NE 15 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 67 59 NE 15 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 68 60 W 12 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 69 60 W 12 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 69 59 W 12 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 66 56 NW 10 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 63 53 NW 10 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 62 52 NW 10 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 61 51 N 10 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 60 50 N 10 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 60 50 N 10 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 58 48 N 12 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 56 46 N 12 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 57 47 N 12 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 55 45 NE 10 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 55 45 NE 10 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 54 44 NE 10 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 53 43 NE 12 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 53 43 NE 12 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 54 44 NE 12 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 53 43 NE 13 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 57 47 NE 13 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 59 50 NE 13 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 61 52 NE 10 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 63 55 NE 10 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 65 57 NE 10 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 66 58 NE 14 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 67 58 NE 14 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 67 57 NE 14 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 65 55 N 13 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 62 52 N 13 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 61 51 N 13 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 61 51 N 12 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 60 50 N 12 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 59 49 N 12 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 58 48 NE 10 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 57 47 NE 10 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 57 47 NE 10 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 56 46 NE 10 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 55 45 NE 10 1398 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 54 44 NE 10 1398 2600 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]