Detailed Predictions for: Malibu - Castro Peak
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.08528, -118.7783, 2600
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

24 JUL 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 83 73 SSE 1 1 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 83 73 SSE 1 1 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 82 72 SE 2 2 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 81 71 SE 2 2 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 81 71 SE 2 2 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 80 70 ESE 2 2 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 81 71 ESE 2 2 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 82 72 ESE 2 2 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 83 74 ESE 2 2 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 85 77 ESE 2 2 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 87 80 ESE 2 2 1930 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 90 86 WSW 10 16 3320 2600 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Wed 91 88 WSW 10 16 3782 3083 483 Blue 4
1 PM Wed 91 89 WSW 10 16 4065 3314 714 Blue 5
2 PM Wed 92 90 WSW 6 9 4506 3544 944 Blue 6
3 PM Wed 92 88 WSW 6 9 3782 3083 483 Blue 4
4 PM Wed 91 86 WSW 6 9 3320 2600 0 Blue 2
5 PM Wed 90 83 WSW 6 9 2267 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 88 79 WSW 6 9 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 86 76 WSW 6 9 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 85 75 WNW 6 10 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 82 72 WNW 6 10 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 82 72 WNW 6 10 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 82 72 SE 4 5 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 82 72 SE 4 5 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 80 70 SE 4 5 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 79 69 ENE 4 5 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 78 68 ENE 4 5 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 77 67 ENE 4 5 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 77 67 ENE 4 5 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 77 67 ENE 4 5 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 78 68 ENE 4 5 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 80 71 ENE 4 5 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 83 75 ENE 4 5 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 85 79 ENE 4 5 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 88 84 WSW 9 13 2379 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 90 87 WSW 9 13 3552 2852 252 Blue 3
1 PM Thu 91 89 WSW 9 13 4065 3314 714 Blue 5
2 PM Thu 92 90 W 9 13 4506 3544 944 Blue 6
3 PM Thu 92 88 W 9 13 3782 3083 483 Blue 4
4 PM Thu 91 86 W 9 13 3320 2600 0 Blue 2
5 PM Thu 90 83 WSW 9 13 2267 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 88 79 WSW 9 13 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 86 76 WSW 9 13 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 84 74 WSW 9 13 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 83 73 WSW 9 13 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 82 72 WSW 9 13 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 81 71 WSW 4 5 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 79 69 WSW 4 5 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 78 68 WSW 4 5 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 76 66 E 3 4 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 75 65 E 3 4 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 74 64 E 3 4 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 74 64 ENE 3 4 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 74 64 ENE 3 4 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 74 64 ENE 3 4 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 76 67 SSW 2 3 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 78 70 SSW 2 3 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 80 74 SSW 2 3 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 82 79 SW 4 5 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 84 82 SW 4 5 2155 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 85 84 SW 4 5 2379 2600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 85 83 WSW 8 10 2267 2600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 85 82 WSW 8 10 2155 2600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 83 78 WSW 8 10 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 82 75 W 9 12 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 79 70 W 9 12 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 77 67 W 9 12 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 75 65 W 6 9 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 74 64 W 6 9 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 73 63 W 6 9 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 72 62 SSW 5 8 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 70 60 SSW 5 8 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 69 59 SSW 5 8 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 67 57 E 3 4 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 66 56 E 3 4 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 65 55 E 3 4 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 65 55 ENE 3 4 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 65 55 ENE 3 4 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 66 56 ENE 3 4 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 68 58 ESE 3 4 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 71 63 ESE 3 4 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 74 67 ESE 3 4 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 77 74 SSW 5 8 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 79 77 SSW 5 8 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 80 79 SSW 5 8 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 80 78 WSW 8 10 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 80 77 WSW 8 10 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 79 74 WSW 8 10 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 78 71 WSW 9 12 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 76 67 WSW 9 12 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 74 64 WSW 9 12 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 72 62 W 6 9 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 70 60 W 6 9 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 69 59 W 6 9 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 68 58 SW 5 8 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 66 56 SW 5 8 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 65 55 SW 5 8 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 64 54 ESE 3 4 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 63 53 ESE 3 4 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 62 52 ESE 3 4 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 62 52 E 3 4 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 62 52 E 3 4 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 63 53 E 3 4 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 66 56 SSE 3 4 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 69 60 SSE 3 4 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 73 65 SSE 3 4 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 76 73 SSW 5 8 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 78 76 SSW 5 8 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 78 77 SSW 5 8 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 78 76 SW 9 12 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 79 76 SW 9 12 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 79 74 SW 9 12 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 78 71 WSW 10 13 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 77 68 WSW 10 13 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 74 64 WSW 10 13 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 72 62 W 8 10 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 70 60 W 8 10 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 69 59 W 8 10 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 68 58 WNW 5 8 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 66 56 WNW 5 8 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 65 55 WNW 5 8 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 64 54 NE 3 4 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 62 52 NE 3 4 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 61 51 NE 3 4 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 61 51 E 3 4 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 61 51 E 3 4 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 63 53 E 3 4 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 65 55 SSE 3 4 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 68 59 SSE 3 4 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 71 64 SSE 3 4 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 75 71 SSW 4 5 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 77 74 SSW 4 5 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 79 77 SSW 4 5 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 80 78 WSW 8 10 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 80 76 WSW 8 10 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 80 75 WSW 8 10 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 78 71 W 10 13 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 76 67 W 10 13 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 73 63 W 10 13 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 71 61 W 6 9 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 69 59 W 6 9 1896 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 69 59 W 6 9 1896 2600 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]