Detailed Predictions for: Malibu - Castro Peak
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.08528, -118.7783, 2600
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

23 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 66 56 NW 4 8 2533 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 64 54 NW 5 9 2533 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 62 52 NW 5 11 2533 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 63 53 WNW 4 8 2533 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 65 55 WNW 3 5 2533 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 66 56 WNW 2 2 2533 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 69 59 WSW 2 2 2533 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 71 61 SSW 2 3 2533 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 74 65 SE 3 3 2730 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 75 68 SSE 4 4 3164 2729 129 Blue 2
10 AM Wed 77 72 S 4 5 3542 3256 656 Blue 6
11 AM Wed 79 76 SSW 5 6 4314 3851 1251 Blue 10
12 Noon Wed 80 79 SW 7 8 5468 4306 1706 Blue 13
1 PM Wed 80 79 SW 9 10 5468 4306 1706 Blue 13
2 PM Wed 80 79 WSW 11 13 5468 4306 1706 Blue 13
3 PM Wed 79 76 WSW 11 13 4314 3851 1251 Blue 10
4 PM Wed 77 72 W 12 14 3542 3256 656 Blue 6
5 PM Wed 75 68 W 13 15 3164 2729 129 Blue 2
6 PM Wed 74 65 W 11 13 2730 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 72 62 W 10 11 2533 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 70 60 WNW 8 10 2533 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 68 58 WNW 7 8 2533 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 66 56 NW 6 7 2533 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 64 54 NW 4 6 2533 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 64 54 NW 3 4 2533 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 65 55 WNW 2 3 2533 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 66 56 WNW 1 2 2533 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 65 55 WNW 1 1 2533 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 65 55 WNW 1 1 2533 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 64 54 NW 1 1 2533 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 67 57 W 1 1 2533 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 70 60 SW 1 1 2533 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 72 63 SSW 1 1 2533 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 74 67 SSW 3 3 3064 2607 7 Blue 1
10 AM Thu 76 71 SSW 4 5 3447 3162 562 Blue 5
11 AM Thu 78 75 SW 6 7 4172 3539 939 Blue 9
12 Noon Thu 79 78 SW 7 8 5227 4164 1564 Blue 12
1 PM Thu 79 78 SW 8 10 5227 4164 1564 Blue 12
2 PM Thu 80 79 WSW 9 11 5468 4306 1706 Blue 13
3 PM Thu 78 75 WSW 10 12 4172 3539 939 Blue 9
4 PM Thu 77 72 WSW 11 13 3542 3256 656 Blue 6
5 PM Thu 75 68 W 12 14 3164 2729 129 Blue 2
6 PM Thu 73 64 W 10 12 2607 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 71 61 W 8 10 2533 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 68 58 WNW 6 8 2533 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 68 58 NW 4 6 2533 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 68 58 NW 3 4 2533 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 67 57 NNW 1 1 2533 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 67 57 WSW 2 2 2533 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 67 57 S 2 3 2533 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 67 57 E 3 4 2533 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 66 56 E 2 3 2533 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 66 56 E 1 2 2533 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 66 56 E 1 1 2533 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 68 58 ESE 1 1 2533 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 72 62 SE 1 2 2533 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 74 65 SE 2 2 2730 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 77 70 S 3 3 3353 3062 462 Blue 4
10 AM Fri 79 74 SSW 4 5 4029 3445 845 Blue 8
11 AM Fri 82 79 SW 5 6 5468 4306 1706 Blue 13
12 Noon Fri 82 81 SW 7 8 6171 5207 2607 Blue 15
1 PM Fri 82 81 WSW 9 11 6171 5207 2607 Blue 15
2 PM Fri 81 80 W 11 13 5708 4467 1867 Blue 14
3 PM Fri 81 78 W 11 13 5227 4164 1564 Blue 12
4 PM Fri 81 76 W 11 13 4314 3851 1251 Blue 10
5 PM Fri 81 74 W 11 13 4029 3445 845 Blue 8
6 PM Fri 78 69 W 9 12 3258 2929 329 Blue 3
7 PM Fri 75 65 WNW 8 11 2730 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 73 63 WNW 6 10 2533 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 72 62 SSW 4 7 2533 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 71 61 ESE 2 4 2533 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 70 60 N 0 1 2533 2600 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]