Detailed Predictions for: Malibu - Castro Peak
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.08528, -118.7783, 2600
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time UTC:

 241208/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Sun 62 52 NW 5 6 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 61 51 E 4 5 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 60 50 E 4 5 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 60 50 E 4 5 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 59 49 E 4 5 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 59 49 E 4 5 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 58 48 E 4 5 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 57 47 E 5 6 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 57 47 E 5 6 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 59 49 E 5 6 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 60 50 SE 6 8 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 60 51 SE 6 8 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 61 52 SE 6 8 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 60 51 SE 8 9 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 60 50 SE 8 9 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 60 50 SE 8 9 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 59 49 SSE 6 8 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 58 48 SSE 6 8 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 58 48 SSE 6 8 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 58 48 E 4 5 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 58 48 E 4 5 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 57 47 E 4 5 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 57 47 E 6 8 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 57 47 E 6 8 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 57 47 E 6 8 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 56 46 E 6 8 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 56 46 E 6 8 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 56 46 E 6 8 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 56 46 ENE 6 8 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 56 46 ENE 6 8 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 55 45 ENE 6 8 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 56 46 NNE 10 13 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 57 47 NNE 10 13 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 59 50 NNE 10 13 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 60 51 NE 12 17 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 63 55 NE 12 17 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 65 57 NE 12 17 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 65 57 NE 13 18 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 65 56 NE 13 18 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 64 54 NE 13 18 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 63 53 NNE 20 28 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 62 52 NNE 20 28 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 62 52 NNE 20 28 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 61 51 NE 23 31 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 61 51 NE 23 31 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 61 51 NE 23 31 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 61 51 NE 27 37 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 60 50 NE 27 37 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 59 49 NE 27 37 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 59 49 NE 32 43 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 58 48 NE 32 43 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 58 48 NE 32 43 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 58 48 NE 32 43 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 57 47 NE 32 43 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 56 46 NE 32 43 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 56 46 NE 28 39 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 57 47 NE 28 39 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 58 49 NE 28 39 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 60 52 NE 31 42 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 62 54 NE 31 42 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 63 55 NE 31 42 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 64 56 NNE 18 25 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 64 55 NNE 18 25 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 63 53 NNE 18 25 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 62 52 NNE 14 20 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 60 50 NNE 14 20 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 59 49 NNE 14 20 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 58 48 NE 29 40 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 57 47 NE 29 40 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 56 46 NE 29 40 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 56 46 NE 26 35 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 55 45 NE 26 35 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 55 45 NE 26 35 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 55 45 NE 23 31 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 54 44 NE 23 31 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 54 44 NE 23 31 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 53 43 NE 25 34 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 53 43 NE 25 34 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 52 42 NE 25 34 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 52 42 NE 20 28 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 54 44 NE 20 28 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 57 47 NE 20 28 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 61 52 NNE 14 19 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 63 54 NNE 14 19 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 65 57 NNE 14 19 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 66 57 N 5 9 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 66 57 N 5 9 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 65 55 N 5 9 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 63 53 NNW 6 10 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 61 51 NNW 6 10 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 60 50 NNW 6 10 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 59 49 N 6 10 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 58 48 N 6 10 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 58 48 N 6 10 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 57 47 N 9 13 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 57 47 N 9 13 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 57 47 N 9 13 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 57 47 NNE 8 12 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 57 47 NNE 8 12 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 57 47 NNE 8 12 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 56 46 NNE 6 10 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 55 45 NNE 6 10 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 54 44 NNE 6 10 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 54 44 NE 5 9 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 56 46 NE 5 9 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 59 49 NE 5 9 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 61 52 ENE 4 6 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 64 55 ENE 4 6 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 65 56 ENE 4 6 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 65 56 SSE 3 5 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 64 55 SSE 3 5 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 63 53 SSE 3 5 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 61 51 WSW 4 6 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 60 50 WSW 4 6 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 58 48 WSW 4 6 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 57 47 NNE 2 3 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 57 47 NNE 2 3 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 56 46 NNE 2 3 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 56 46 NE 5 9 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 56 46 NE 5 9 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 55 45 NE 5 9 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 55 45 NE 5 9 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 54 44 NE 5 9 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 54 44 NE 5 9 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 53 43 NE 5 9 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 53 43 NE 5 9 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 52 42 NE 5 9 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 52 42 NE 5 9 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 53 43 NE 5 9 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 55 45 NE 5 9 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 58 49 ENE 4 6 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 60 51 ENE 4 6 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 61 52 ENE 4 6 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 62 53 S 3 5 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 62 53 S 3 5 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 62 52 S 3 5 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 61 51 WSW 4 6 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 59 49 WSW 4 6 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 57 47 WSW 4 6 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 56 46 NNW 3 5 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 55 45 NNW 3 5 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 55 45 NNW 3 5 1289 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 55 45 NE 4 6 1289 2600 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]