Detailed Predictions for: Malibu - Castro Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 2600
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

19 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 57 47 N 9 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 56 46 N 9 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 56 46 N 9 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 58 48 N 9 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 61 52 N 9 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 63 55 N 9 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 67 60 NW 9 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 69 63 NW 9 2939 2600 0 Blue 1
1 PM Sat 72 66 NW 9 3518 2935 335 Blue 4
2 PM Sat 72 66 W 13 3518 2935 335 Blue 4
3 PM Sat 71 64 W 13 3132 2600 0 Blue 2
4 PM Sat 71 62 W 13 2538 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 69 59 N 14 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 67 57 N 14 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 66 56 N 14 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 65 55 N 18 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 64 54 N 18 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 64 54 N 18 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 64 54 N 21 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 63 53 N 21 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 63 53 N 21 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 62 52 N 21 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 61 51 N 21 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 60 50 N 21 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 60 50 N 28 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 59 49 N 28 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 60 50 N 28 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 61 51 N 29 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 64 55 N 29 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 66 58 N 29 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 70 63 NE 29 2939 2600 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sun 73 67 NE 29 3711 3128 528 Blue 5
1 PM Sun 76 70 NE 29 4236 3703 1103 Blue 8
2 PM Sun 76 70 N 29 4236 3703 1103 Blue 8
3 PM Sun 75 68 N 29 3903 3320 720 Blue 6
4 PM Sun 75 66 N 29 3518 2935 335 Blue 4
5 PM Sun 73 63 N 22 2939 2600 0 Blue 1
6 PM Sun 71 61 N 22 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 70 60 N 22 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 69 59 N 22 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 68 58 N 22 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 68 58 N 22 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 68 58 NE 14 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 67 57 NE 14 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 67 57 NE 14 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 66 56 NE 14 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 65 55 NE 14 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 64 54 NE 14 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 64 54 NE 18 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 63 53 NE 18 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 64 54 NE 18 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 67 57 NE 18 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 71 62 NE 18 2538 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 75 67 NE 18 3711 3128 528 Blue 5
11 AM Mon 81 74 N 23 5774 4391 1791 Blue 12
12 Noon Mon 85 79 N 23 8012 6676 4076 Blue 17
1 PM Mon 89 83 N 23 9600 8343 5743 Blue 21
2 PM Mon 90 84 N 23 9707 8749 6149 Blue 22
3 PM Mon 87 80 N 23 8422 7104 4504 Blue 18
4 PM Mon 87 78 N 23 7594 6231 3631 Blue 16
5 PM Mon 83 73 NE 13 4826 4226 1626 Blue 11
6 PM Mon 80 70 NE 13 4236 3703 1103 Blue 8
7 PM Mon 79 69 NE 13 4069 3511 911 Blue 7
8 PM Mon 76 66 NE 13 3518 2935 335 Blue 4
9 PM Mon 75 65 NE 13 3325 2600 0 Blue 3
10 PM Mon 74 64 NE 13 3132 2600 0 Blue 2
11 PM Mon 73 63 NE 14 2939 2600 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Tue 71 61 NE 14 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 71 61 NE 14 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 71 61 NE 14 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 67 57 NE 14 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 67 57 NE 14 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 66 56 NE 10 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 64 54 NE 10 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 65 55 NE 10 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 68 58 NE 10 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 73 64 NE 10 3132 2600 0 Blue 2
10 AM Tue 77 69 NE 10 4069 3511 911 Blue 7
11 AM Tue 83 76 W 14 6736 4781 2181 Blue 14
12 Noon Tue 88 82 W 14 9278 7937 5337 Blue 20
1 PM Tue 92 86 W 14 9922 9574 6974 Blue 24
2 PM Tue 93 87 W 14 10029 9681 7081 Blue 25
3 PM Tue 90 83 W 14 9600 8343 5743 Blue 21
4 PM Tue 90 81 W 14 8841 7524 4924 Blue 19
5 PM Tue 85 75 W 16 6295 4557 1957 Blue 13
6 PM Tue 81 71 W 16 4402 3894 1294 Blue 9
7 PM Tue 79 69 W 16 4069 3511 911 Blue 7
8 PM Tue 76 66 W 16 3518 2935 335 Blue 4
9 PM Tue 74 64 W 16 3132 2600 0 Blue 2
10 PM Tue 73 63 W 16 2939 2600 0 Blue 1
11 PM Tue 72 62 N 13 2538 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 70 60 N 13 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 70 60 N 13 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 70 60 N 13 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 65 55 N 13 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 65 55 N 13 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 63 53 N 13 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 61 51 N 13 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 62 52 N 13 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 64 54 N 13 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 67 58 N 13 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 70 62 N 13 2538 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 74 67 SW 12 3711 3128 528 Blue 5
12 Noon Wed 77 71 SW 12 4402 3894 1294 Blue 9
1 PM Wed 81 75 SW 12 6295 4557 1957 Blue 13
2 PM Wed 81 75 SW 12 6295 4557 1957 Blue 13
3 PM Wed 79 72 SW 12 4568 4060 1460 Blue 10
4 PM Wed 79 70 SW 12 4236 3703 1103 Blue 8
5 PM Wed 75 65 SW 14 3325 2600 0 Blue 3
6 PM Wed 73 63 SW 14 2939 2600 0 Blue 1
7 PM Wed 71 61 SW 14 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 69 59 SW 14 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 68 58 SW 14 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 68 58 SW 14 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 67 57 NE 13 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 65 55 NE 13 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 65 55 NE 13 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 65 55 NE 13 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 62 52 NE 13 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 61 51 NE 13 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 60 50 NE 16 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 59 49 NE 16 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 60 50 NE 16 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 62 52 NE 16 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 65 56 NE 16 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 68 60 NE 16 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 72 65 NE 23 3325 2600 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Thu 75 69 NE 23 4069 3511 911 Blue 7
1 PM Thu 79 73 NE 23 4826 4226 1626 Blue 11
2 PM Thu 79 73 NE 23 4826 4226 1626 Blue 11
3 PM Thu 77 70 NE 23 4236 3703 1103 Blue 8
4 PM Thu 77 68 NE 23 3903 3320 720 Blue 6
5 PM Thu 74 64 E 21 3132 2600 0 Blue 2
6 PM Thu 72 62 E 21 2538 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 71 61 E 21 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 69 59 E 21 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 68 58 E 21 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 67 57 E 21 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 67 57 NE 21 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 65 55 NE 21 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 65 55 NE 21 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 65 55 NE 21 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 63 53 NE 21 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 62 52 NE 21 1890 2600 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]