Detailed Predictions for: Malibu - Castro Peak
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.08528, -118.7783, 2600
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

21 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 71 61 ENE 2 2 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 70 60 ENE 2 2 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 69 59 ENE 4 5 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 68 58 ENE 4 5 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 67 57 ENE 4 5 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 65 55 ENE 17 26 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 64 54 ENE 17 26 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 64 54 ENE 17 26 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 66 56 ENE 20 31 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 67 58 ENE 20 31 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 72 65 ENE 20 31 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 81 75 ESE 9 13 2840 2600 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Tue 85 80 ESE 9 13 4643 3227 627 Blue 6
1 PM Tue 89 85 ESE 9 13 5974 5523 2923 Blue 11
2 PM Tue 89 84 WSW 8 12 5828 5296 2696 Blue 10
3 PM Tue 90 84 WSW 8 12 5828 5296 2696 Blue 10
4 PM Tue 88 80 WSW 8 12 4643 3227 627 Blue 6
5 PM Tue 86 77 W 4 5 3232 2642 42 Blue 3
6 PM Tue 82 72 W 4 5 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 78 68 W 4 5 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 75 65 W 4 5 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 77 67 W 4 5 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 77 67 W 4 5 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 77 67 NNW 2 2 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 76 66 NNW 2 2 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 76 66 NNW 2 2 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 74 64 WNW 2 2 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 73 63 WNW 2 2 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 72 62 WNW 2 2 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 70 60 WNW 2 2 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 69 59 WNW 2 2 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 69 59 WNW 2 2 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 71 61 WNW 2 2 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 71 62 WNW 2 2 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 76 68 WNW 2 2 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 83 77 WNW 4 5 3232 2642 42 Blue 3
12 Noon Wed 86 81 WNW 4 5 5320 3421 821 Blue 7
1 PM Wed 89 84 WNW 4 5 5828 5296 2696 Blue 10
2 PM Wed 89 84 W 9 13 5828 5296 2696 Blue 10
3 PM Wed 90 84 W 9 13 5828 5296 2696 Blue 10
4 PM Wed 88 80 W 9 13 4643 3227 627 Blue 6
5 PM Wed 85 76 W 9 13 3036 2600 0 Blue 2
6 PM Wed 81 71 W 9 13 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 75 65 W 9 13 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 72 62 W 9 13 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 74 64 W 9 13 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 74 64 W 9 13 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 74 64 N 3 4 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 74 64 N 3 4 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 73 63 N 3 4 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 71 61 N 3 4 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 70 60 N 3 4 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 68 58 N 3 4 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 66 56 N 3 4 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 65 55 N 3 4 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 65 55 N 3 4 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 66 56 N 3 4 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 67 58 N 3 4 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 70 62 N 3 4 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 75 69 SW 6 10 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 77 72 SW 6 10 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 79 74 SW 6 10 2644 2600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 79 74 SW 6 10 2644 2600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 80 74 SW 6 10 2644 2600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 79 71 SW 6 10 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 76 67 WSW 10 16 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 74 64 WSW 10 16 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 70 60 WSW 10 16 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 68 58 WSW 10 16 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 69 59 WSW 10 16 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 69 59 WSW 10 16 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 69 59 NNE 5 6 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 69 59 NNE 5 6 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 68 58 NNE 5 6 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 67 57 NNE 5 6 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 66 56 NNE 5 6 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 65 55 NNE 5 6 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 64 54 NE 6 9 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 63 53 NE 6 9 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 63 53 NE 6 9 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 64 54 E 6 9 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 65 56 E 6 9 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 68 60 E 6 9 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 74 68 S 9 12 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 76 71 S 9 12 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 78 73 S 9 12 2010 2600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 78 73 SW 11 16 2010 2600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 79 73 SW 11 16 2010 2600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 78 70 SW 11 16 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 76 67 WSW 10 13 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 73 63 WSW 10 13 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 69 59 WSW 10 13 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 68 58 W 6 9 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 69 59 W 6 9 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 69 59 W 6 9 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 69 59 NW 4 5 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 68 58 NW 4 5 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 68 58 NW 4 5 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 67 57 NNW 5 8 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 66 56 NNW 5 8 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 65 55 NNW 5 8 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 64 54 NNW 6 9 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 63 53 NNW 6 9 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 63 53 NNW 6 9 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 64 54 ENE 6 9 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 65 56 ENE 6 9 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 68 60 ENE 6 9 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 72 65 SSW 9 11 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 75 69 SSW 9 11 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 76 70 SSW 9 11 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 76 70 WSW 10 14 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 77 70 WSW 10 14 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 76 68 WSW 10 14 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 74 65 W 10 14 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 71 61 W 10 14 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 68 58 W 10 14 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 66 56 W 8 10 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 68 58 W 8 10 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 68 58 W 8 10 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 68 58 WNW 5 8 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 67 57 WNW 5 8 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 67 57 WNW 5 8 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 66 56 W 6 9 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 65 55 W 6 9 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 64 54 W 6 9 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 63 53 N 6 9 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 62 52 N 6 9 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 62 52 N 6 9 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 63 53 S 6 9 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 64 55 S 6 9 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 67 59 S 6 9 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 71 65 SSW 9 11 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 74 69 SSW 9 11 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 75 70 SSW 9 11 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 75 69 WSW 10 14 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 76 69 WSW 10 14 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 75 67 WSW 10 14 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 73 64 W 10 14 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 70 60 W 10 14 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 66 56 W 10 14 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 65 55 W 8 10 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 66 56 W 8 10 1890 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 66 56 W 8 10 1890 2600 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]