Detailed Predictions for: Malibu - Castro Peak
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.08528, -118.7783, 2600
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time UTC:

 251212/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Fri 56 46 NE 5 8 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 56 46 NE 4 6 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 54 44 NE 4 6 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 54 44 NE 4 6 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 54 44 N 3 5 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 54 44 N 3 5 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 54 44 N 3 5 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 53 43 NE 4 6 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 60 50 NE 4 6 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 65 56 NE 4 6 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 70 62 NE 2 3 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 71 63 NE 2 3 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 74 66 NE 2 3 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 74 66 WNW 6 9 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 71 62 WNW 6 9 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 69 59 WNW 6 9 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 62 52 WNW 4 6 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 57 47 WNW 4 6 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 57 47 WNW 4 6 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 56 46 N 2 3 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 57 47 N 2 3 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 56 46 N 2 3 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 56 46 E 2 3 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 55 45 E 2 3 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 55 45 E 2 3 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 52 42 ENE 2 3 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 52 42 ENE 2 3 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 52 42 ENE 2 3 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 52 42 ENE 2 3 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 52 42 ENE 2 3 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 52 42 ENE 2 3 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 52 42 NNE 2 3 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 57 47 NNE 2 3 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 62 53 NNE 2 3 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 67 58 WNW 3 4 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 68 60 WNW 3 4 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 70 62 WNW 3 4 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 71 63 W 5 8 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 70 61 W 5 8 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 68 58 W 5 8 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 64 54 W 5 9 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 59 49 W 5 9 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 59 49 W 5 9 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 59 49 NW 5 9 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 59 49 NW 5 9 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 59 49 NW 5 9 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 58 48 N 5 9 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 58 48 N 5 9 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 58 48 N 5 9 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 57 47 N 4 6 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 57 47 N 4 6 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 57 47 N 4 6 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 56 46 N 4 6 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 54 44 N 4 6 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 52 42 N 4 6 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 52 42 N 4 6 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 54 44 N 4 6 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 58 49 N 4 6 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 63 55 N 3 5 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 67 59 N 3 5 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 70 62 N 3 5 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 71 63 W 5 9 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 71 62 W 5 9 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 69 59 W 5 9 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 67 57 WNW 6 10 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 64 54 WNW 6 10 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 62 52 WNW 6 10 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 60 50 NNW 6 10 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 58 48 NNW 6 10 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 57 47 NNW 6 10 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 57 47 N 8 12 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 56 46 N 8 12 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 56 46 N 8 12 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 55 45 N 6 10 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 55 45 N 6 10 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 55 45 N 6 10 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 54 44 N 5 9 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 53 43 N 5 9 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 53 43 N 5 9 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 54 44 NNE 5 9 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 57 47 NNE 5 9 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 61 52 NNE 5 9 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 65 57 N 4 6 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 69 61 N 4 6 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 72 64 N 4 6 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 74 66 NW 4 6 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 74 65 NW 4 6 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 72 62 NW 4 6 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 70 60 WNW 5 9 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 67 57 WNW 5 9 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 64 54 WNW 5 9 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 62 52 N 5 9 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 61 51 N 5 9 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 60 50 N 5 9 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 59 49 NNE 8 12 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 58 48 NNE 8 12 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 57 47 NNE 8 12 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 56 46 NNE 8 11 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 56 46 NNE 8 11 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 55 45 NNE 8 11 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 55 45 NNE 6 10 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 54 44 NNE 6 10 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 54 44 NNE 6 10 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 55 45 NNE 5 9 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 58 48 NNE 5 9 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 62 52 NNE 5 9 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 66 58 ENE 3 5 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 69 61 ENE 3 5 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 71 63 ENE 3 5 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 72 64 SW 3 5 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 71 62 SW 3 5 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 69 59 SW 3 5 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 67 57 W 4 6 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 66 56 W 4 6 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 64 54 W 4 6 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 63 53 N 2 3 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 62 52 N 2 3 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 61 51 N 2 3 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 61 51 NE 4 6 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 60 50 NE 4 6 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 60 50 NE 4 6 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 60 50 NNE 4 6 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 59 49 NNE 4 6 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 59 49 NNE 4 6 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 58 48 NNE 4 6 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 58 48 NNE 4 6 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 57 47 NNE 4 6 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 57 47 NNE 4 6 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 59 49 NNE 4 6 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 62 52 NNE 4 6 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 64 55 E 3 5 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 67 59 E 3 5 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 68 60 E 3 5 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 69 61 WSW 5 9 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 69 60 WSW 5 9 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 68 58 WSW 5 9 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 66 56 W 5 9 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 65 55 W 5 9 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 64 54 W 5 9 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 63 53 N 5 9 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 62 52 N 5 9 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 62 52 N 5 9 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 61 51 N 8 12 2001 2600 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]