Detailed Predictions for: Ojai
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.51624419593214, -119.2046327531341, 4700
LZ Altitude (f): 1000
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 5 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Tue 54 54 NNE 6 13 2717 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 54 54 NNE 6 14 2717 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 52 52 NNE 6 13 2717 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 50 50 NNE 6 13 2717 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 49 49 NNE 6 13 2717 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 49 49 NNE 6 13 2717 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 52 52 N 2 14 2717 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 50 50 NNE 6 14 2717 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 55 55 NNE 6 14 2717 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 64 65 NNE 5 11 8311 6852 2152 Blue 7
10 AM Tue 69 71 NE 2 5 11002 10033 5333 Blue 13
11 AM Tue 75 77 ESE 3 6 13074 11973 7273 Blue 19
12 Noon Tue 78 81 SE 4 9 14728 13311 8611 Blue 23
1 PM Tue 79 81 S 5 10 14728 13311 8611 Blue 23
2 PM Tue 80 81 SSW 5 11 14728 13311 8611 Blue 23
3 PM Tue 78 78 SSW 5 10 13406 12313 7613 Blue 20
4 PM Tue 75 75 SSW 3 8 12399 11281 6581 Blue 17
5 PM Tue 71 71 SSW 2 5 11002 10033 5333 Blue 13
6 PM Tue 67 67 NNW 2 5 9670 7752 3052 Blue 9
7 PM Tue 65 65 N 4 10 8311 6852 2152 Blue 7
8 PM Tue 56 56 N 5 10 2717 4700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 56 56 N 4 9 2717 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 54 54 NNE 5 10 2717 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 54 54 N 5 10 2717 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 56 56 N 5 10 2717 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 61 61 N 5 10 6413 4720 20 Blue 3
2 AM Wed 64 64 N 5 9 7795 6388 1688 Blue 6
3 AM Wed 61 61 NNE 5 10 6413 4720 20 Blue 3
4 AM Wed 61 61 NNE 5 10 6413 4720 20 Blue 3
5 AM Wed 63 63 NNE 5 10 7344 5914 1214 Blue 5
6 AM Wed 60 60 NNE 4 9 5932 4700 0 Blue 2
7 AM Wed 60 60 NNE 4 8 5932 4700 0 Blue 2
8 AM Wed 62 62 N 4 8 6883 5428 728 Blue 4
9 AM Wed 63 64 NNE 3 4 7795 6388 1688 Blue 6
10 AM Wed 69 71 SSW 2 2 11002 10033 5333 Blue 13
11 AM Wed 70 72 SW 5 6 11357 10260 5560 Blue 14
12 Noon Wed 72 75 SSW 6 7 12399 11281 6581 Blue 17
1 PM Wed 72 74 SW 6 7 12056 10929 6229 Blue 16
2 PM Wed 71 72 SW 6 7 11357 10260 5560 Blue 14
3 PM Wed 71 71 SW 6 8 11002 10033 5333 Blue 13
4 PM Wed 70 70 SW 6 7 10641 9568 4868 Blue 12
5 PM Wed 65 65 SSW 4 4 8311 6852 2152 Blue 7
6 PM Wed 59 59 N 1 3 5439 4700 0 Blue 1
7 PM Wed 59 59 N 3 6 5439 4700 0 Blue 1
8 PM Wed 60 60 N 4 7 5932 4700 0 Blue 2
9 PM Wed 57 57 N 4 8 3232 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 56 56 N 5 10 2717 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 57 57 N 5 10 3232 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 56 56 N 5 10 2717 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 56 56 N 5 9 2717 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 53 53 N 6 10 2717 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 55 55 N 6 11 2717 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 54 54 N 6 10 2717 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 47 47 N 7 11 2717 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 52 52 N 7 11 2717 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 50 50 N 8 13 2717 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 47 47 N 8 16 2717 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 51 52 N 7 11 2717 4700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 56 58 N 5 6 4720 4700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 61 63 NNW 3 3 7344 5914 1214 Blue 5
12 Noon Thu 63 65 W 2 2 8311 6852 2152 Blue 7
1 PM Thu 63 65 WSW 4 4 8311 6852 2152 Blue 7
2 PM Thu 64 65 WSW 4 5 8311 6852 2152 Blue 7
3 PM Thu 62 62 W 4 4 6883 5428 728 Blue 4
4 PM Thu 59 59 WNW 3 4 5439 4700 0 Blue 1
5 PM Thu 61 61 NNW 4 5 6413 4720 20 Blue 3
6 PM Thu 50 50 N 6 12 2717 4700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 48 48 N 8 17 2717 4700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 52 52 N 9 19 2717 4700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 47 47 N 9 19 2717 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 47 47 N 10 20 2717 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 48 48 N 9 19 2717 4700 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]