Detailed Predictions for: Ojai
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.51624419593214, -119.2046327531341, 4700
LZ Altitude (f): 1000
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

23 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 66 66 SSE 3 4 4148 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 64 64 SSE 3 4 3894 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 63 63 SSE 2 2 3894 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 62 62 SSE 2 2 3894 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 60 60 SSE 2 2 3894 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 60 60 S 3 4 3894 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 60 60 S 3 4 3894 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 59 59 S 3 4 3894 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 66 67 S 6 8 4293 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 70 73 S 6 8 6967 5442 742 Blue 5
10 AM Wed 74 79 S 6 8 8870 8103 3403 Blue 11
11 AM Wed 76 81 S 10 13 9833 8495 3795 Blue 13
12 Noon Wed 78 84 S 10 13 11077 9774 5074 Blue 16
1 PM Wed 78 84 S 10 13 11077 9774 5074 Blue 16
2 PM Wed 78 84 S 9 11 11077 9774 5074 Blue 16
3 PM Wed 79 84 S 9 11 11077 9774 5074 Blue 16
4 PM Wed 79 82 S 9 11 10158 8771 4071 Blue 14
5 PM Wed 79 82 S 8 9 10158 8771 4071 Blue 14
6 PM Wed 79 80 S 8 9 9506 8299 3599 Blue 12
7 PM Wed 77 77 S 8 9 8325 7384 2684 Blue 9
8 PM Wed 75 75 SSE 5 6 7884 6097 1397 Blue 7
9 PM Wed 69 69 SSE 5 6 5205 4700 0 Blue 1
10 PM Wed 67 67 SSE 5 6 4293 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 66 66 SE 4 5 4148 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 65 65 SE 4 5 4003 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 62 62 SE 4 5 3894 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 61 61 SE 3 4 3894 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 60 60 SE 3 4 3894 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 58 58 SE 3 4 3894 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 57 57 SE 3 4 3894 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 58 58 SE 3 4 3894 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 56 56 SE 3 4 3894 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 63 64 SSE 5 6 3894 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 67 70 SSE 5 6 5452 4700 0 Blue 2
10 AM Thu 71 75 SSE 5 6 7884 6097 1397 Blue 7
11 AM Thu 73 80 S 8 9 9506 8299 3599 Blue 12
12 Noon Thu 75 83 S 8 9 10445 9423 4723 Blue 15
1 PM Thu 75 83 S 8 9 10445 9423 4723 Blue 15
2 PM Thu 75 83 SSW 6 8 10445 9423 4723 Blue 15
3 PM Thu 76 83 SSW 6 8 10445 9423 4723 Blue 15
4 PM Thu 76 81 SSW 6 8 9833 8495 3795 Blue 13
5 PM Thu 76 79 SW 5 6 8870 8103 3403 Blue 11
6 PM Thu 76 77 SW 5 6 8325 7384 2684 Blue 9
7 PM Thu 75 75 SW 5 6 7884 6097 1397 Blue 7
8 PM Thu 73 73 WNW 2 2 6967 5442 742 Blue 5
9 PM Thu 69 69 WNW 2 2 5205 4700 0 Blue 1
10 PM Thu 67 67 WNW 2 2 4293 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 66 66 N 3 4 4148 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 66 66 N 3 4 4148 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 64 64 N 3 4 3894 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 63 63 N 3 4 3894 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 62 62 N 3 4 3894 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 60 60 N 3 4 3894 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 60 60 N 4 5 3894 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 60 60 N 4 5 3894 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 59 59 N 4 5 3894 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 65 66 SW 4 5 4148 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 68 71 SW 4 5 5697 4700 0 Blue 3
10 AM Fri 71 76 SW 4 5 8128 6926 2226 Blue 8
11 AM Fri 73 80 WSW 6 8 9506 8299 3599 Blue 12
12 Noon Fri 74 82 WSW 6 8 10158 8771 4071 Blue 14
1 PM Fri 74 83 WSW 6 8 10445 9423 4723 Blue 15
2 PM Fri 74 82 WSW 8 9 10158 8771 4071 Blue 14
3 PM Fri 75 82 WSW 8 9 10158 8771 4071 Blue 14
4 PM Fri 75 80 WSW 8 9 9506 8299 3599 Blue 12
5 PM Fri 75 78 WNW 5 6 8522 7832 3132 Blue 10
6 PM Fri 75 76 WNW 5 6 8128 6926 2226 Blue 8
7 PM Fri 74 74 WNW 5 6 7430 5686 986 Blue 6
8 PM Fri 73 73 NNW 5 6 6967 5442 742 Blue 5
9 PM Fri 69 69 NNW 5 6 5205 4700 0 Blue 1
10 PM Fri 68 68 NNW 5 6 4456 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 68 68 N 6 8 4456 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 67 67 N 6 8 4293 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 66 66 N 6 8 4148 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 65 65 N 9 11 4003 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 64 64 N 9 11 3894 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 63 63 N 9 11 3894 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 62 62 N 5 8 3894 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 63 63 N 5 8 3894 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 62 62 N 5 8 3894 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 70 71 N 5 8 5697 4700 0 Blue 3
9 AM Sat 74 77 N 5 8 8325 7384 2684 Blue 9
10 AM Sat 78 83 N 5 8 10445 9423 4723 Blue 15
11 AM Sat 80 87 S 10 13 12894 10935 6235 Blue 19
12 Noon Sat 81 89 S 10 13 13991 12159 7459 Blue 21
1 PM Sat 82 91 S 10 13 15018 13287 8587 Blue 23
2 PM Sat 82 90 SSW 10 13 14512 12734 8034 Blue 22
3 PM Sat 83 90 SSW 10 13 14512 12734 8034 Blue 22
4 PM Sat 83 88 SSW 10 13 13452 11561 6861 Blue 20
5 PM Sat 83 86 WSW 8 11 12314 10391 5691 Blue 18
6 PM Sat 83 84 WSW 8 11 11077 9774 5074 Blue 16
7 PM Sat 82 82 WSW 8 11 10158 8771 4071 Blue 14
8 PM Sat 81 81 NW 6 9 9833 8495 3795 Blue 13
9 PM Sat 78 78 NW 6 9 8522 7832 3132 Blue 10
10 PM Sat 77 77 NW 6 9 8325 7384 2684 Blue 9
11 PM Sat 76 76 N 5 8 8128 6926 2226 Blue 8
12 Midnight Sun 76 76 N 5 8 8128 6926 2226 Blue 8
1 AM Sun 74 74 N 5 8 7430 5686 986 Blue 6
2 AM Sun 74 74 N 6 9 7430 5686 986 Blue 6
3 AM Sun 73 73 N 6 9 6967 5442 742 Blue 5
4 AM Sun 72 72 N 6 9 6156 5197 497 Blue 4
5 AM Sun 71 71 N 6 9 5697 4700 0 Blue 3
6 AM Sun 72 72 N 6 9 6156 5197 497 Blue 4
7 AM Sun 71 71 N 6 9 5697 4700 0 Blue 3
8 AM Sun 77 78 N 6 9 8522 7832 3132 Blue 10
9 AM Sun 80 83 N 6 9 10445 9423 4723 Blue 15
10 AM Sun 83 88 N 6 9 13452 11561 6861 Blue 20
11 AM Sun 85 92 S 9 11 15420 13821 9121 Blue 24
12 Noon Sun 86 94 S 9 11 16151 14840 10140 Blue 26
1 PM Sun 86 95 S 9 11 18554 15283 10583 Blue 27
2 PM Sun 86 94 SSW 10 13 16151 14840 10140 Blue 26
3 PM Sun 87 94 SSW 10 13 16151 14840 10140 Blue 26
4 PM Sun 87 92 SSW 10 13 15420 13821 9121 Blue 24
5 PM Sun 87 90 SW 8 10 14512 12734 8034 Blue 22
6 PM Sun 87 88 SW 8 10 13452 11561 6861 Blue 20
7 PM Sun 86 86 SW 8 10 12314 10391 5691 Blue 18
8 PM Sun 84 84 W 5 8 11077 9774 5074 Blue 16
9 PM Sun 80 80 W 5 8 9506 8299 3599 Blue 12
10 PM Sun 78 78 W 5 8 8522 7832 3132 Blue 10
11 PM Sun 77 77 N 4 6 8325 7384 2684 Blue 9
12 Midnight Mon 77 77 N 4 6 8325 7384 2684 Blue 9
1 AM Mon 75 75 N 4 6 7884 6097 1397 Blue 7
2 AM Mon 74 74 N 5 8 7430 5686 986 Blue 6
3 AM Mon 73 73 N 5 8 6967 5442 742 Blue 5
4 AM Mon 71 71 N 5 8 5697 4700 0 Blue 3
5 AM Mon 71 71 N 5 8 5697 4700 0 Blue 3
6 AM Mon 71 71 N 5 8 5697 4700 0 Blue 3
7 AM Mon 70 70 N 5 8 5452 4700 0 Blue 2
8 AM Mon 76 77 N 4 6 8325 7384 2684 Blue 9
9 AM Mon 79 82 N 4 6 10158 8771 4071 Blue 14
10 AM Mon 82 87 N 4 6 12894 10935 6235 Blue 19
11 AM Mon 84 91 S 9 11 15018 13287 8587 Blue 23
12 Noon Mon 85 93 S 9 11 15785 14338 9638 Blue 25
1 PM Mon 85 94 S 9 11 16151 14840 10140 Blue 26
2 PM Mon 85 93 SSW 10 13 15785 14338 9638 Blue 25
3 PM Mon 86 93 SSW 10 13 15785 14338 9638 Blue 25
4 PM Mon 86 91 SSW 10 13 15018 13287 8587 Blue 23
5 PM Mon 86 89 SW 8 10 13991 12159 7459 Blue 21
6 PM Mon 86 87 SW 8 10 12894 10935 6235 Blue 19
7 PM Mon 85 85 SW 8 10 11710 10096 5396 Blue 17
8 PM Mon 83 83 W 5 8 10445 9423 4723 Blue 15
9 PM Mon 79 79 W 5 8 8870 8103 3403 Blue 11
10 PM Mon 77 77 W 5 8 8325 7384 2684 Blue 9

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]