Detailed Predictions for: Ojai
Launch Altitude (f): 4700
LZ Altitude (f): 1000
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

2 DEC 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 47 47 NE 13 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 45 45 NE 13 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 44 44 NE 13 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 44 44 NE 10 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 49 49 NE 10 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 52 52 NE 10 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 57 58 SE 7 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 62 63 SE 7 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 67 68 SE 7 5958 4700 0 Blue 2
1 PM Wed 68 69 S 8 6341 4781 81 Blue 3
2 PM Wed 68 69 S 8 6341 4781 81 Blue 3
3 PM Wed 67 67 S 8 5570 4700 0 Blue 1
4 PM Wed 63 63 E 10 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 53 53 E 10 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 49 49 E 10 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 44 44 NE 15 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 43 43 NE 15 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 43 43 NE 15 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 43 43 NE 21 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 41 41 NE 21 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 44 44 NE 21 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 42 42 NE 20 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 41 41 NE 20 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 40 40 NE 20 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 39 39 NE 18 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 37 37 NE 18 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 36 36 NE 18 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 36 36 NE 18 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 41 41 NE 18 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 45 45 NE 18 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 50 51 NE 18 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 56 57 NE 18 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 61 62 NE 18 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 62 63 NE 16 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 62 63 NE 16 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 61 61 NE 16 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 58 58 NE 21 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 51 51 NE 21 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 48 48 NE 21 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 44 44 NE 15 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 43 43 NE 15 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 43 43 NE 15 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 43 43 NE 17 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 42 42 NE 17 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 44 44 NE 17 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 42 42 NE 17 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 42 42 NE 17 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 41 41 NE 17 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 40 40 NE 16 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 39 39 NE 16 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 38 38 NE 16 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 38 38 NE 17 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 44 44 NE 17 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 48 48 NE 17 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 53 54 NE 15 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 59 61 NE 15 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 65 67 NE 15 5570 4700 0 Blue 1
1 PM Fri 66 68 NE 13 5958 4700 0 Blue 2
2 PM Fri 66 67 NE 13 5570 4700 0 Blue 1
3 PM Fri 65 65 NE 13 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 62 62 N 9 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 56 56 N 9 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 53 53 N 9 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 50 50 N 8 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 49 49 N 8 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 50 50 N 8 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 50 50 NE 10 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 48 48 NE 10 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 50 50 NE 10 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 49 49 NE 10 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 48 48 NE 10 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 47 47 NE 10 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 47 47 NE 10 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 46 46 NE 10 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 45 45 NE 10 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 45 45 N 8 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 49 49 N 8 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 52 53 N 8 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 56 57 NE 9 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 61 63 NE 9 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 65 67 NE 9 5570 4700 0 Blue 1
1 PM Sat 66 68 E 8 5958 4700 0 Blue 2
2 PM Sat 66 67 E 8 5570 4700 0 Blue 1
3 PM Sat 65 65 E 8 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 62 62 N 5 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 56 56 N 5 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 53 53 N 5 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 50 50 N 5 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 49 49 N 5 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 50 50 N 5 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 50 50 N 8 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 48 48 N 8 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 50 50 N 8 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 49 49 N 8 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 48 48 N 8 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 47 47 N 8 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 47 47 N 8 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 46 46 N 8 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 45 45 N 8 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 45 45 N 7 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 49 49 N 7 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 52 53 N 7 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 56 57 N 7 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 61 63 N 7 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 65 67 N 7 5570 4700 0 Blue 1
1 PM Sun 66 68 SW 7 5958 4700 0 Blue 2
2 PM Sun 66 67 SW 7 5570 4700 0 Blue 1
3 PM Sun 65 65 SW 7 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 62 62 W 6 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 55 55 W 6 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 52 52 W 6 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 49 49 N 6 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 48 48 N 6 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 48 48 N 6 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 48 48 N 7 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 47 47 N 7 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 49 49 N 7 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 47 47 N 7 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 47 47 N 7 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 46 46 N 7 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 45 45 N 8 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 44 44 N 8 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 43 43 N 8 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 43 43 N 7 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 48 48 N 7 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 51 52 N 7 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 55 56 NE 8 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 60 62 NE 8 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 64 66 NE 8 4799 4700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 65 67 E 12 5570 4700 0 Blue 1
2 PM Mon 65 66 E 12 4799 4700 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 64 64 E 12 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 61 61 NE 7 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 55 55 NE 7 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 52 52 NE 7 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 49 49 N 8 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 48 48 N 8 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 49 49 N 8 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 49 49 N 10 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 47 47 N 10 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 49 49 N 10 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 48 48 N 9 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 47 47 N 9 4085 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 46 46 N 9 4085 4700 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]