Detailed Predictions for: Ojai
Launch Altitude (f): 4700
LZ Altitude (f): 1000
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

19 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 44 44 N 9 3901 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 43 43 N 9 3901 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 43 43 N 9 3901 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 45 45 N 13 3901 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 53 54 N 13 3901 4700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 61 63 N 13 4796 4700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 66 69 N 12 8075 6726 2026 Blue 6
12 Noon Sat 69 73 N 12 9629 8439 3739 Blue 10
1 PM Sat 71 75 N 12 9848 9311 4611 Blue 12
2 PM Sat 72 76 N 14 9958 9610 4910 Blue 13
3 PM Sat 72 75 N 14 9848 9311 4611 Blue 12
4 PM Sat 70 71 N 14 8936 7598 2898 Blue 8
5 PM Sat 69 69 N 23 8075 6726 2026 Blue 6
6 PM Sat 65 65 N 23 6307 4700 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sat 60 60 N 23 4215 4700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 56 56 N 25 3901 4700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 53 53 N 25 3901 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 52 52 N 25 3901 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 51 51 N 16 3901 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 49 49 N 16 3901 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 49 49 N 16 3901 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 48 48 N 15 3901 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 49 49 N 15 3901 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 47 47 N 15 3901 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 45 45 NE 15 3901 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 44 44 NE 15 3901 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 44 44 NE 15 3901 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 46 46 N 16 3901 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 54 55 N 16 3901 4700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 62 64 N 16 5770 4700 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sun 67 70 SW 9 8497 7166 2466 Blue 7
12 Noon Sun 70 74 SW 9 9739 8867 4167 Blue 11
1 PM Sun 72 76 SW 9 9958 9610 4910 Blue 13
2 PM Sun 73 77 SW 9 10068 9719 5019 Blue 14
3 PM Sun 73 76 SW 9 9958 9610 4910 Blue 13
4 PM Sun 71 72 SW 9 9385 8022 3322 Blue 9
5 PM Sun 70 70 E 7 8497 7166 2466 Blue 7
6 PM Sun 66 66 E 7 6762 4784 84 Blue 3
7 PM Sun 61 61 E 7 4386 4700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 57 57 E 7 3901 4700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 54 54 E 7 3901 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 53 53 E 7 3901 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 52 52 NE 14 3901 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 50 50 NE 14 3901 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 50 50 NE 14 3901 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 49 49 NE 14 3901 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 50 50 NE 14 3901 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 48 48 NE 14 3901 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 46 46 NE 12 3901 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 45 45 NE 12 3901 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 45 45 NE 12 3901 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 47 47 NE 12 3901 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 57 58 NE 12 3901 4700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 65 67 NE 12 7208 5743 1043 Blue 4
11 AM Mon 70 73 S 7 9629 8439 3739 Blue 10
12 Noon Mon 74 78 S 7 10178 9828 5128 Blue 15
1 PM Mon 76 80 S 7 10383 10047 5347 Blue 17
2 PM Mon 77 81 S 7 10580 10156 5456 Blue 18
3 PM Mon 77 80 S 7 10383 10047 5347 Blue 17
4 PM Mon 75 76 S 7 9958 9610 4910 Blue 13
5 PM Mon 74 74 E 7 9739 8867 4167 Blue 11
6 PM Mon 72 72 E 7 9385 8022 3322 Blue 9
7 PM Mon 68 68 E 7 7646 6274 1574 Blue 5
8 PM Mon 65 65 E 7 6307 4700 0 Blue 2
9 PM Mon 63 63 E 7 4796 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 62 62 E 7 4556 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 61 61 NE 10 4386 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 60 60 NE 10 4215 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 60 60 NE 10 4215 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 59 59 NE 10 4045 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 59 59 NE 10 4045 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 58 58 NE 10 3901 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 57 57 NE 9 3901 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 56 56 NE 9 3901 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 56 56 NE 9 3901 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 58 58 NE 9 3901 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 66 67 NE 9 7208 5743 1043 Blue 4
10 AM Tue 73 75 NE 9 9848 9311 4611 Blue 12
11 AM Tue 77 80 W 8 10383 10047 5347 Blue 17
12 Noon Tue 80 84 W 8 11310 10530 5830 Blue 21
1 PM Tue 82 86 W 8 12311 11013 6313 Blue 23
2 PM Tue 83 87 W 8 13583 11254 6554 Blue 24
3 PM Tue 83 86 W 8 12311 11013 6313 Blue 23
4 PM Tue 80 81 W 8 10580 10156 5456 Blue 18
5 PM Tue 78 78 W 7 10178 9828 5128 Blue 15
6 PM Tue 74 74 W 7 9739 8867 4167 Blue 11
7 PM Tue 67 67 W 7 7208 5743 1043 Blue 4
8 PM Tue 62 62 W 7 4556 4700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 58 58 W 7 3901 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 57 57 W 7 3901 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 55 55 N 7 3901 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 53 53 N 7 3901 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 53 53 N 7 3901 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 52 52 N 7 3901 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 52 52 N 7 3901 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 50 50 N 7 3901 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 48 48 N 7 3901 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 46 46 N 7 3901 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 46 46 N 7 3901 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 48 48 N 7 3901 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 59 60 N 7 4215 4700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 68 70 N 7 8497 7166 2466 Blue 7
11 AM Wed 74 77 SW 9 10068 9719 5019 Blue 14
12 Noon Wed 77 81 SW 9 10580 10156 5456 Blue 18
1 PM Wed 80 84 SW 9 11310 10530 5830 Blue 21
2 PM Wed 81 85 SW 9 11551 10772 6072 Blue 22
3 PM Wed 81 84 SW 9 11310 10530 5830 Blue 21
4 PM Wed 78 79 SW 9 10247 9938 5238 Blue 16
5 PM Wed 77 77 SW 9 10068 9719 5019 Blue 14
6 PM Wed 72 72 SW 9 9385 8022 3322 Blue 9
7 PM Wed 65 65 SW 9 6307 4700 0 Blue 2
8 PM Wed 60 60 SW 9 4215 4700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 57 57 SW 9 3901 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 55 55 SW 9 3901 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 54 54 N 7 3901 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 52 52 N 7 3901 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 52 52 N 7 3901 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 50 50 N 7 3901 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 51 51 N 7 3901 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 49 49 N 7 3901 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 47 47 NE 8 3901 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 45 45 NE 8 3901 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 45 45 NE 8 3901 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 47 47 NE 8 3901 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 57 58 NE 8 3901 4700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 66 68 NE 8 7646 6274 1574 Blue 5
11 AM Thu 72 75 NE 17 9848 9311 4611 Blue 12
12 Noon Thu 75 79 NE 17 10247 9938 5238 Blue 16
1 PM Thu 78 82 NE 17 10824 10235 5535 Blue 19
2 PM Thu 79 83 NE 17 11068 10347 5647 Blue 20
3 PM Thu 79 82 NE 17 10824 10235 5535 Blue 19
4 PM Thu 77 78 NE 17 10178 9828 5128 Blue 15
5 PM Thu 75 75 NE 14 9848 9311 4611 Blue 12
6 PM Thu 71 71 NE 14 8936 7598 2898 Blue 8
7 PM Thu 64 64 NE 14 5770 4700 0 Blue 1
8 PM Thu 60 60 NE 14 4215 4700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 57 57 NE 14 3901 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 56 56 NE 14 3901 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 54 54 NE 14 3901 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 52 52 NE 14 3901 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 52 52 NE 14 3901 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 51 51 NE 14 3901 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 51 51 NE 14 3901 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 50 50 NE 14 3901 4700 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]