Detailed Predictions for: Ojai
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.51624419593214, -119.2046327531341, 4700
LZ Altitude (f): 1000
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

21 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 67 67 ENE 14 21 3481 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 66 66 ENE 14 21 3481 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 66 66 ENE 16 24 3481 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 66 66 ENE 16 24 3481 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 65 65 ENE 16 24 3481 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 64 64 ENE 19 29 3481 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 65 65 ENE 19 29 3481 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 66 66 ENE 19 29 3481 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 64 64 ESE 20 31 3481 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 73 74 ESE 20 31 5819 5253 553 Blue 3
10 AM Tue 78 81 ESE 20 31 7045 6402 1702 Blue 10
11 AM Tue 80 84 E 18 27 7939 7018 2318 Blue 13
12 Noon Tue 82 87 E 18 27 8812 7904 3204 Blue 16
1 PM Tue 84 90 E 18 27 9668 8771 4071 Blue 19
2 PM Tue 86 91 SW 10 16 9950 9055 4355 Blue 20
3 PM Tue 86 90 SW 10 16 9668 8771 4071 Blue 19
4 PM Tue 86 88 SW 10 16 9099 8196 3496 Blue 17
5 PM Tue 85 86 S 3 4 8524 7611 2911 Blue 15
6 PM Tue 83 83 S 3 4 7643 6718 2018 Blue 12
7 PM Tue 82 82 S 3 4 7345 6549 1849 Blue 11
8 PM Tue 75 75 S 3 4 5967 5515 815 Blue 4
9 PM Tue 72 72 S 3 4 5521 4700 0 Blue 1
10 PM Tue 71 71 S 3 4 5284 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 69 69 NE 3 4 3837 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 68 68 NE 3 4 3481 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 67 67 NE 3 4 3481 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 67 67 S 3 4 3481 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 66 66 S 3 4 3481 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 65 65 S 3 4 3481 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 65 65 S 3 4 3481 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 65 65 S 3 4 3481 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 67 67 S 3 4 3481 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 64 64 S 3 4 3481 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 71 72 S 3 4 5521 4700 0 Blue 1
10 AM Wed 75 77 S 3 4 6264 5811 1111 Blue 6
11 AM Wed 77 81 SW 8 12 7045 6402 1702 Blue 10
12 Noon Wed 78 83 SW 8 12 7643 6718 2018 Blue 12
1 PM Wed 80 85 SW 8 12 8233 7315 2615 Blue 14
2 PM Wed 82 87 SW 9 13 8812 7904 3204 Blue 16
3 PM Wed 82 86 SW 9 13 8524 7611 2911 Blue 15
4 PM Wed 82 84 SW 9 13 7939 7018 2318 Blue 13
5 PM Wed 81 82 SW 9 13 7345 6549 1849 Blue 11
6 PM Wed 79 79 SW 9 13 6560 6107 1407 Blue 8
7 PM Wed 78 78 SW 9 13 6412 5959 1259 Blue 7
8 PM Wed 72 72 SW 9 13 5521 4700 0 Blue 1
9 PM Wed 70 70 SW 9 13 4530 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 69 69 SW 9 13 3837 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 67 67 NNW 5 6 3481 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 66 66 NNW 5 6 3481 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 66 66 NNW 5 6 3481 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 65 65 NNW 5 6 3481 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 65 65 NNW 5 6 3481 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 64 64 NNW 5 6 3481 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 64 64 NNW 5 6 3481 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 64 64 NNW 5 6 3481 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 66 66 NNW 5 6 3481 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 63 63 NNW 5 6 3481 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 68 69 NNW 5 6 3837 4700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 71 74 NNW 5 6 5819 5253 553 Blue 3
11 AM Thu 73 77 SSW 9 13 6264 5811 1111 Blue 6
12 Noon Thu 73 78 SSW 9 13 6412 5959 1259 Blue 7
1 PM Thu 75 80 SSW 9 13 6742 6254 1554 Blue 9
2 PM Thu 76 81 SSW 9 13 7045 6402 1702 Blue 10
3 PM Thu 76 80 SSW 9 13 6742 6254 1554 Blue 9
4 PM Thu 76 78 SSW 9 13 6412 5959 1259 Blue 7
5 PM Thu 75 76 SSW 9 13 6116 5663 963 Blue 5
6 PM Thu 74 74 SSW 9 13 5819 5253 553 Blue 3
7 PM Thu 73 73 SSW 9 13 5670 4700 0 Blue 2
8 PM Thu 69 69 SSW 9 13 3837 4700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 67 67 SSW 9 13 3481 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 66 66 SSW 9 13 3481 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 65 65 NE 5 6 3481 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 64 64 NE 5 6 3481 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 64 64 NE 5 6 3481 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 64 64 NE 5 6 3481 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 64 64 NE 5 6 3481 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 63 63 NE 5 6 3481 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 62 62 NE 4 5 3481 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 62 62 NE 4 5 3481 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 64 64 NE 4 5 3481 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 62 62 NE 5 8 3481 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 68 69 NE 5 8 3837 4700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 71 74 NE 5 8 5819 5253 553 Blue 3
11 AM Fri 73 77 S 9 11 6264 5811 1111 Blue 6
12 Noon Fri 74 79 S 9 11 6560 6107 1407 Blue 8
1 PM Fri 76 81 S 9 11 7045 6402 1702 Blue 10
2 PM Fri 77 82 S 11 14 7345 6549 1849 Blue 11
3 PM Fri 77 81 S 11 14 7045 6402 1702 Blue 10
4 PM Fri 77 79 S 11 14 6560 6107 1407 Blue 8
5 PM Fri 76 77 SSW 8 10 6264 5811 1111 Blue 6
6 PM Fri 75 75 SSW 8 10 5967 5515 815 Blue 4
7 PM Fri 74 74 SSW 8 10 5819 5253 553 Blue 3
8 PM Fri 69 69 WNW 3 4 3837 4700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 67 67 WNW 3 4 3481 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 67 67 WNW 3 4 3481 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 65 65 NNW 2 3 3481 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 65 65 NNW 2 3 3481 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 64 64 NNW 2 3 3481 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 64 64 N 3 4 3481 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 64 64 N 3 4 3481 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 63 63 N 3 4 3481 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 62 62 N 5 8 3481 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 63 63 N 5 8 3481 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 64 64 N 5 8 3481 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 62 62 NE 5 8 3481 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 67 68 NE 5 8 3481 4700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 69 71 NE 5 8 5284 4700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 71 74 S 9 11 5819 5253 553 Blue 3
12 Noon Sat 72 76 S 9 11 6116 5663 963 Blue 5
1 PM Sat 73 78 S 9 11 6412 5959 1259 Blue 7
2 PM Sat 74 78 SSW 10 13 6412 5959 1259 Blue 7
3 PM Sat 74 77 SSW 10 13 6264 5811 1111 Blue 6
4 PM Sat 74 76 SSW 10 13 6116 5663 963 Blue 5
5 PM Sat 73 73 SW 8 10 5670 4700 0 Blue 2
6 PM Sat 72 72 SW 8 10 5521 4700 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sat 71 71 SW 8 10 5284 4700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 67 67 W 3 4 3481 4700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 65 65 W 3 4 3481 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 64 64 W 3 4 3481 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 63 63 NNW 3 4 3481 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 62 62 NNW 3 4 3481 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 62 62 NNW 3 4 3481 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 62 62 N 3 4 3481 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 62 62 N 3 4 3481 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 61 61 N 3 4 3481 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 60 60 N 3 4 3481 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 60 60 N 3 4 3481 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 62 62 N 3 4 3481 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 60 60 SSE 4 5 3481 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 65 66 SSE 4 5 3481 4700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 67 69 SSE 4 5 3837 4700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 69 73 SSW 9 11 5670 4700 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Sun 70 75 SSW 9 11 5967 5515 815 Blue 4
1 PM Sun 71 76 SSW 9 11 6116 5663 963 Blue 5
2 PM Sun 72 77 SSW 10 13 6264 5811 1111 Blue 6
3 PM Sun 72 76 SSW 10 13 6116 5663 963 Blue 5
4 PM Sun 72 74 SSW 10 13 5819 5253 553 Blue 3
5 PM Sun 71 72 SW 8 10 5521 4700 0 Blue 1
6 PM Sun 70 70 SW 8 10 4530 4700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 69 69 SW 8 10 3837 4700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 65 65 W 3 4 3481 4700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 63 63 W 3 4 3481 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 62 62 W 3 4 3481 4700 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]