Detailed Predictions for: Pine Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.63616582095678, -119.3070454653368, 7000
LZ Altitude (f): 4000
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 23 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Wed 60 60 N 2 5 8164 7000 0 Blue 1
1 AM Wed 63 63 N 2 5 9080 8157 1157 Blue 4
2 AM Wed 66 66 N 2 5 10299 9038 2038 Blue 7
3 AM Wed 66 66 N 2 5 10299 9038 2038 Blue 7
4 AM Wed 65 65 N 2 4 9967 8564 1564 Blue 6
5 AM Wed 65 65 N 2 4 9967 8564 1564 Blue 6
6 AM Wed 68 68 WNW 3 4 11439 9937 2937 Blue 9
7 AM Wed 71 71 SW 3 4 13309 11349 4349 Blue 12
8 AM Wed 73 74 SSE 4 4 14971 13194 6194 Blue 15
9 AM Wed 70 73 S 5 8 14436 12605 5605 Blue 14
10 AM Wed 67 72 S 6 12 13882 11991 4991 Blue 13
11 AM Wed 64 71 S 7 15 13309 11349 4349 Blue 12
12 Noon Wed 66 75 SSW 7 16 15403 13761 6761 Blue 16
1 PM Wed 68 77 SSW 8 16 16412 14837 7837 White 18
2 PM Wed 69 78 SSW 8 16 16622 15299 8299 White 19
3 PM Wed 68 75 SSW 7 16 15403 13761 6761 Blue 16
4 PM Wed 67 72 SSW 7 15 13882 11991 4991 Blue 13
5 PM Wed 65 68 SSW 6 14 11439 9937 2937 Blue 9
6 PM Wed 63 64 SSW 5 10 9626 8361 1361 Blue 5
7 PM Wed 61 61 SSW 3 6 8369 7467 467 Blue 2
8 PM Wed 58 58 SSW 1 2 7472 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 55 55 SE 1 3 6870 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 51 51 E 2 3 6870 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 47 47 NNE 2 4 6870 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 52 52 NNE 2 4 6870 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 57 57 NE 2 4 6985 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 62 62 NE 2 4 8574 7936 936 Blue 3
3 AM Thu 61 61 NE 2 4 8369 7467 467 Blue 2
4 AM Thu 61 61 NNE 2 4 8369 7467 467 Blue 2
5 AM Thu 61 61 NNE 2 4 8369 7467 467 Blue 2
6 AM Thu 64 64 ENE 3 4 9626 8361 1361 Blue 5
7 AM Thu 67 67 SE 3 4 10752 9599 2599 Blue 8
8 AM Thu 70 71 S 4 4 13309 11349 4349 Blue 12
9 AM Thu 68 71 S 5 8 13309 11349 4349 Blue 12
10 AM Thu 66 71 S 6 12 13309 11349 4349 Blue 12
11 AM Thu 64 71 SSW 7 16 13309 11349 4349 Blue 12
12 Noon Thu 65 74 SSW 8 16 14971 13194 6194 Blue 15
1 PM Thu 66 75 SSW 8 17 15403 13761 6761 Blue 16
2 PM Thu 67 76 SSW 8 17 15787 14308 7308 Blue 17
3 PM Thu 67 74 SSW 8 16 14971 13194 6194 Blue 15
4 PM Thu 66 71 SSW 7 15 13309 11349 4349 Blue 12
5 PM Thu 66 69 SSW 7 15 12090 10271 3271 Blue 10
6 PM Thu 63 64 SSW 4 10 9626 8361 1361 Blue 5
7 PM Thu 61 61 SSW 2 5 8369 7467 467 Blue 2
8 PM Thu 59 59 SW 0 0 7948 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 55 55 SSE 1 2 6870 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 51 51 ENE 2 3 6870 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 48 48 N 2 4 6870 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 54 54 N 2 4 6870 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 60 60 NNE 2 4 8164 7000 0 Blue 1
2 AM Fri 66 66 NNE 2 4 10299 9038 2038 Blue 7
3 AM Fri 65 65 N 2 5 9967 8564 1564 Blue 6
4 AM Fri 65 65 N 2 5 9967 8564 1564 Blue 6
5 AM Fri 65 65 N 3 5 9967 8564 1564 Blue 6
6 AM Fri 68 68 ENE 3 5 11439 9937 2937 Blue 9
7 AM Fri 72 72 SE 3 4 13882 11991 4991 Blue 13
8 AM Fri 75 76 SSW 3 3 15787 14308 7308 Blue 17
9 AM Fri 74 77 SSW 4 6 16412 14837 7837 White 18
10 AM Fri 74 79 SSW 6 9 16831 15679 8679 White 20
11 AM Fri 73 80 SSW 8 11 17041 16053 9053 White 21
12 Noon Fri 73 82 SSW 8 13 17457 17457 10457 White 23
1 PM Fri 72 81 SSW 8 14 17248 17248 10248 White 22
2 PM Fri 72 81 SSW 8 16 17248 17248 10248 White 22
3 PM Fri 71 78 SSW 8 15 16622 15299 8299 White 19
4 PM Fri 70 75 SSW 7 15 15403 13761 6761 Blue 16
5 PM Fri 69 72 SSW 6 14 13882 11991 4991 Blue 13
6 PM Fri 68 69 WSW 4 10 12090 10271 3271 Blue 10
7 PM Fri 67 67 NW 2 6 10752 9599 2599 Blue 8
8 PM Fri 66 66 N 0 1 10299 9038 2038 Blue 7
9 PM Fri 63 63 WSW 1 3 9080 8157 1157 Blue 4
10 PM Fri 61 61 SE 2 4 8369 7467 467 Blue 2
11 PM Fri 58 58 NNE 3 6 7472 7000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]