Detailed Predictions for: Pine Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 7000
LZ Altitude (f): 4000
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

19 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 39 39 N 17 5194 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 40 40 N 17 5194 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 41 41 N 17 5194 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 44 44 N 22 5194 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 50 51 N 22 5194 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 54 56 N 22 6874 7000 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sat 57 60 N 25 8654 7314 314 Blue 5
12 Noon Sat 60 64 N 25 9792 9075 2075 Blue 9
1 PM Sat 62 66 N 25 10016 9667 2667 Blue 11
2 PM Sat 62 66 N 26 10016 9667 2667 Blue 11
3 PM Sat 62 65 N 26 9904 9529 2529 Blue 10
4 PM Sat 59 60 N 26 8654 7314 314 Blue 5
5 PM Sat 55 55 N 29 6406 7000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 49 49 N 29 5194 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 44 44 N 29 5194 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 42 42 N 31 5194 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 41 41 N 31 5194 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 41 41 N 31 5194 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 40 40 N 30 5194 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 40 40 N 30 5194 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 41 41 N 30 5194 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 40 40 N 29 5194 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 41 41 N 29 5194 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 42 42 N 29 5194 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 39 39 N 28 5194 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 40 40 N 28 5194 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 41 41 N 28 5194 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 45 45 N 29 5194 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 51 52 N 29 5194 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 55 57 N 29 7332 7000 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sun 58 61 N 26 9120 7757 757 Blue 6
12 Noon Sun 61 65 N 26 9904 9529 2529 Blue 10
1 PM Sun 64 68 N 26 10221 9890 2890 Blue 13
2 PM Sun 64 68 N 26 10221 9890 2890 Blue 13
3 PM Sun 64 67 N 26 10129 9779 2779 Blue 12
4 PM Sun 61 62 N 26 9568 8191 1191 Blue 7
5 PM Sun 58 58 N 22 7781 7000 0 Blue 3
6 PM Sun 53 53 N 22 5298 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 48 48 N 22 5194 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 47 47 N 22 5194 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 46 46 N 22 5194 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 46 46 N 22 5194 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 45 45 NE 13 5194 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 45 45 NE 13 5194 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 46 46 NE 13 5194 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 45 45 NE 13 5194 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 45 45 NE 13 5194 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 46 46 NE 13 5194 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 44 44 NE 12 5194 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 45 45 NE 12 5194 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 46 46 NE 12 5194 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 50 50 NE 12 5194 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 57 58 NE 12 7781 7000 0 Blue 3
10 AM Mon 61 63 NE 12 9680 8618 1618 Blue 8
11 AM Mon 64 67 SW 7 10129 9779 2779 Blue 12
12 Noon Mon 67 71 SW 7 10740 10212 3212 Blue 16
1 PM Mon 70 74 SW 7 11486 10702 3702 Blue 19
2 PM Mon 70 74 SW 7 11486 10702 3702 Blue 19
3 PM Mon 70 73 SW 7 11238 10467 3467 Blue 18
4 PM Mon 67 68 SW 7 10221 9890 2890 Blue 13
5 PM Mon 64 64 NE 9 9792 9075 2075 Blue 9
6 PM Mon 60 60 NE 9 8654 7314 314 Blue 5
7 PM Mon 55 55 NE 9 6406 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 54 54 NE 9 5870 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 53 53 NE 9 5298 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 53 53 NE 9 5298 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 52 52 NE 13 5194 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 52 52 NE 13 5194 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 52 52 NE 13 5194 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 52 52 NE 13 5194 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 52 52 NE 13 5194 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 53 53 NE 13 5298 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 51 51 NE 10 5194 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 52 52 NE 10 5194 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 53 53 NE 10 5298 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 57 57 NE 10 7332 7000 0 Blue 2
9 AM Tue 64 65 NE 10 9904 9529 2529 Blue 10
10 AM Tue 68 70 NE 10 10492 10114 3114 Blue 15
11 AM Tue 71 74 NW 10 11486 10702 3702 Blue 19
12 Noon Tue 74 78 NW 10 16032 11688 4688 Blue 23
1 PM Tue 77 81 NW 10 17754 15830 8830 Blue 26
2 PM Tue 77 81 NW 10 17754 15830 8830 Blue 26
3 PM Tue 76 79 NW 10 16630 13084 6084 Blue 24
4 PM Tue 73 74 NW 10 11486 10702 3702 Blue 19
5 PM Tue 67 67 NW 10 10129 9779 2779 Blue 12
6 PM Tue 61 61 NW 10 9120 7757 757 Blue 6
7 PM Tue 54 54 NW 10 5870 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 51 51 NW 10 5194 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 50 50 NW 10 5194 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 50 50 NW 10 5194 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 48 48 N 9 5194 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 48 48 N 9 5194 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 49 49 N 9 5194 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 49 49 N 9 5194 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 49 49 N 9 5194 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 50 50 N 9 5194 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 47 47 N 9 5194 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 48 48 N 9 5194 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 49 49 N 9 5194 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 53 53 N 9 5298 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 61 62 N 9 9568 8191 1191 Blue 7
10 AM Wed 65 67 N 9 10129 9779 2779 Blue 12
11 AM Wed 69 72 NW 12 10990 10288 3288 Blue 17
12 Noon Wed 72 76 NW 12 13379 11197 4197 Blue 21
1 PM Wed 75 79 NW 12 16630 13084 6084 Blue 24
2 PM Wed 75 79 NW 12 16630 13084 6084 Blue 24
3 PM Wed 74 77 NW 12 14635 11443 4443 Blue 22
4 PM Wed 71 72 NW 12 10990 10288 3288 Blue 17
5 PM Wed 65 65 NW 12 9904 9529 2529 Blue 10
6 PM Wed 58 58 NW 12 7781 7000 0 Blue 3
7 PM Wed 51 51 NW 12 5194 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 48 48 NW 12 5194 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 47 47 NW 12 5194 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 47 47 NW 12 5194 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 45 45 NE 12 5194 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 45 45 NE 12 5194 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 46 46 NE 12 5194 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 46 46 NE 12 5194 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 46 46 NE 12 5194 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 47 47 NE 12 5194 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 44 44 NE 12 5194 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 45 45 NE 12 5194 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 46 46 NE 12 5194 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 50 50 NE 12 5194 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 58 59 NE 12 8221 7000 0 Blue 4
10 AM Thu 63 65 NE 12 9904 9529 2529 Blue 10
11 AM Thu 67 70 NE 16 10492 10114 3114 Blue 15
12 Noon Thu 70 74 NE 16 11486 10702 3702 Blue 19
1 PM Thu 73 77 NE 16 14635 11443 4443 Blue 22
2 PM Thu 73 77 NE 16 14635 11443 4443 Blue 22
3 PM Thu 72 75 NE 16 11966 10950 3950 Blue 20
4 PM Thu 69 70 NE 16 10492 10114 3114 Blue 15
5 PM Thu 64 64 NE 15 9792 9075 2075 Blue 9
6 PM Thu 57 57 NE 15 7332 7000 0 Blue 2
7 PM Thu 50 50 NE 15 5194 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 48 48 NE 15 5194 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 47 47 NE 15 5194 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 46 46 NE 15 5194 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 45 45 NE 15 5194 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 45 45 NE 15 5194 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 46 46 NE 15 5194 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 46 46 NE 15 5194 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 46 46 NE 15 5194 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 47 47 NE 15 5194 7000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]