Detailed Predictions for: Pine Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.63616582095678, -119.3070454653368, 7000
LZ Altitude (f): 4000
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time UTC:

241105/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 46 46 NNE 10 14 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 46 46 N 10 14 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 44 44 N 10 14 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 44 44 N 10 14 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 44 44 N 10 14 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 44 44 N 10 14 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 44 44 N 10 14 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 44 44 N 11 17 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 50 50 N 11 17 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 53 54 N 11 17 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 55 57 N 13 20 7021 7000 0 Blue 1
11 AM Tue 57 60 N 13 20 7211 7019 19 Blue 4
12 Noon Tue 58 61 N 13 20 7274 7082 82 Blue 5
1 PM Tue 57 59 N 16 24 7148 7000 0 Blue 3
2 PM Tue 56 58 N 16 24 7084 7000 0 Blue 2
3 PM Tue 54 55 N 16 24 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 51 51 N 18 27 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 49 49 N 18 27 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 47 47 N 18 27 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 47 47 N 23 34 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 47 47 N 23 34 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 46 46 N 23 34 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 47 47 N 19 29 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 47 47 N 19 29 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 47 47 N 19 29 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 47 47 NNE 16 24 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 47 47 NNE 16 24 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 46 46 NNE 16 24 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 46 46 NE 21 33 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 45 45 NE 21 33 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 43 43 NE 21 33 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 43 43 ENE 20 31 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 46 46 ENE 20 31 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 49 50 ENE 20 31 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 49 51 ESE 17 26 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 53 56 ESE 17 26 6426 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 54 57 ESE 17 26 7021 7000 0 Blue 1
1 PM Wed 54 57 SE 14 23 7021 7000 0 Blue 1
2 PM Wed 53 55 SE 14 23 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 52 53 SE 14 23 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 49 49 E 16 24 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 45 45 E 16 24 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 41 41 E 16 24 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 38 38 NE 18 27 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 37 37 NE 18 27 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 37 37 NE 18 27 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 38 38 NE 19 29 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 38 38 NE 19 29 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 38 38 NE 19 29 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 38 38 ENE 20 31 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 38 38 ENE 20 31 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 37 37 ENE 20 31 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 36 36 ENE 20 31 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 35 35 ENE 20 31 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 35 35 ENE 20 31 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 36 36 E 19 29 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 39 39 E 19 29 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 43 44 E 19 29 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 47 49 N 14 23 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 50 53 N 14 23 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 51 54 N 14 23 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 52 55 W 8 11 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 52 54 W 8 11 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 51 52 W 8 11 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 49 49 NW 10 16 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 47 47 NW 10 16 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 45 45 NW 10 16 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 43 43 N 13 21 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 42 42 N 13 21 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 42 42 N 13 21 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 42 42 N 14 23 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 42 42 N 14 23 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 43 43 N 14 23 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 43 43 N 14 23 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 43 43 N 14 23 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 43 43 N 14 23 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 43 43 N 14 21 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 42 42 N 14 21 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 42 42 N 14 21 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 43 43 N 12 19 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 46 46 N 12 19 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 50 51 N 12 19 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 53 55 NW 9 12 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 55 58 NW 9 12 7084 7000 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Fri 56 59 NW 9 12 7148 7000 0 Blue 3
1 PM Fri 56 59 WNW 5 8 7148 7000 0 Blue 3
2 PM Fri 55 57 WNW 5 8 7021 7000 0 Blue 1
3 PM Fri 54 55 WNW 5 8 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 52 52 WNW 5 9 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 50 50 WNW 5 9 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 48 48 WNW 5 9 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 46 46 NNE 10 16 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 45 45 NNE 10 16 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 45 45 NNE 10 16 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 45 45 N 13 20 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 45 45 N 13 20 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 46 46 N 13 20 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 46 46 NNE 13 20 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 46 46 NNE 13 20 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 46 46 NNE 13 20 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 46 46 N 8 11 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 46 46 N 8 11 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 46 46 N 8 11 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 47 47 N 5 9 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 49 49 N 5 9 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 52 53 N 5 9 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 55 57 W 3 5 7021 7000 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sat 57 59 W 3 5 7148 7000 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Sat 58 61 W 3 5 7274 7082 82 Blue 5
1 PM Sat 58 60 W 4 6 7211 7019 19 Blue 4
2 PM Sat 57 58 W 4 6 7084 7000 0 Blue 2
3 PM Sat 55 56 W 4 6 6426 7000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 53 53 NW 4 6 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 50 50 NW 4 6 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 49 49 NW 4 6 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 47 47 N 10 14 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 47 47 N 10 14 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 46 46 N 10 14 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 46 46 N 13 19 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 46 46 N 13 19 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 45 45 N 13 19 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 45 45 N 13 19 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 45 45 N 13 19 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 45 45 N 13 19 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 45 45 N 12 18 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 45 45 N 12 18 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 45 45 N 12 18 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 46 46 N 10 16 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 48 48 N 10 16 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 51 52 N 10 16 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 54 56 N 4 6 6426 7000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 56 59 N 4 6 7148 7000 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Sun 57 60 N 4 6 7211 7019 19 Blue 4
1 PM Sun 57 60 WNW 4 6 7211 7019 19 Blue 4
2 PM Sun 56 58 WNW 4 6 7084 7000 0 Blue 2
3 PM Sun 55 56 WNW 4 6 6426 7000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 53 53 NW 5 9 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 51 51 NW 5 9 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 49 49 NW 5 9 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 47 47 N 10 14 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 46 46 N 10 14 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 46 46 N 10 14 5649 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 46 46 NNE 10 14 5649 7000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]