SoaringPredictor for Pine Mountain

Detailed Predictions for: Pine Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 7000
LZ Altitude (f): 4000

Sounding
Station:	KVBG
Date/Time:	19 OCT 2019
Temp/Wind data from:	NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts

Time (Local)	High Temp	Puddle Temp	Wind (mph)	Thermal Ceiling (ft)	Soaring Ceiling (ft)	Above Launch (ft)	Thermal Type	Thermal Index (F)
5 AM Sat	39	39	N 17	5194	7000	0	Blue	0
6 AM Sat	40	40	N 17	5194	7000	0	Blue	0
7 AM Sat	41	41	N 17	5194	7000	0	Blue	0
8 AM Sat	44	44	N 22	5194	7000	0	Blue	0
9 AM Sat	50	51	N 22	5194	7000	0	Blue	0
10 AM Sat	54	56	N 22	6874	7000	0	Blue	1
11 AM Sat	57	60	N 25	8654	7314	314	Blue	5
12 Noon Sat	60	64	N 25	9792	9075	2075	Blue	9
1 PM Sat	62	66	N 25	10016	9667	2667	Blue	11
2 PM Sat	62	66	N 26	10016	9667	2667	Blue	11
3 PM Sat	62	65	N 26	9904	9529	2529	Blue	10
4 PM Sat	59	60	N 26	8654	7314	314	Blue	5
5 PM Sat	55	55	N 29	6406	7000	0	Blue	0
6 PM Sat	49	49	N 29	5194	7000	0	Blue	0
7 PM Sat	44	44	N 29	5194	7000	0	Blue	0
8 PM Sat	42	42	N 31	5194	7000	0	Blue	0
9 PM Sat	41	41	N 31	5194	7000	0	Blue	0
10 PM Sat	41	41	N 31	5194	7000	0	Blue	0
11 PM Sat	40	40	N 30	5194	7000	0	Blue	0
12 Midnight Sun	40	40	N 30	5194	7000	0	Blue	0
1 AM Sun	41	41	N 30	5194	7000	0	Blue	0
2 AM Sun	40	40	N 29	5194	7000	0	Blue	0
3 AM Sun	41	41	N 29	5194	7000	0	Blue	0
4 AM Sun	42	42	N 29	5194	7000	0	Blue	0
5 AM Sun	39	39	N 28	5194	7000	0	Blue	0
6 AM Sun	40	40	N 28	5194	7000	0	Blue	0
7 AM Sun	41	41	N 28	5194	7000	0	Blue	0
8 AM Sun	45	45	N 29	5194	7000	0	Blue	0
9 AM Sun	51	52	N 29	5194	7000	0	Blue	0
10 AM Sun	55	57	N 29	7332	7000	0	Blue	2
11 AM Sun	58	61	N 26	9120	7757	757	Blue	6
12 Noon Sun	61	65	N 26	9904	9529	2529	Blue	10
1 PM Sun	64	68	N 26	10221	9890	2890	Blue	13
2 PM Sun	64	68	N 26	10221	9890	2890	Blue	13
3 PM Sun	64	67	N 26	10129	9779	2779	Blue	12
4 PM Sun	61	62	N 26	9568	8191	1191	Blue	7
5 PM Sun	58	58	N 22	7781	7000	0	Blue	3
6 PM Sun	53	53	N 22	5298	7000	0	Blue	0
7 PM Sun	48	48	N 22	5194	7000	0	Blue	0
8 PM Sun	47	47	N 22	5194	7000	0	Blue	0
9 PM Sun	46	46	N 22	5194	7000	0	Blue	0
10 PM Sun	46	46	N 22	5194	7000	0	Blue	0
11 PM Sun	45	45	NE 13	5194	7000	0	Blue	0
12 Midnight Mon	45	45	NE 13	5194	7000	0	Blue	0
1 AM Mon	46	46	NE 13	5194	7000	0	Blue	0
2 AM Mon	45	45	NE 13	5194	7000	0	Blue	0
3 AM Mon	45	45	NE 13	5194	7000	0	Blue	0
4 AM Mon	46	46	NE 13	5194	7000	0	Blue	0
5 AM Mon	44	44	NE 12	5194	7000	0	Blue	0
6 AM Mon	45	45	NE 12	5194	7000	0	Blue	0
7 AM Mon	46	46	NE 12	5194	7000	0	Blue	0
8 AM Mon	50	50	NE 12	5194	7000	0	Blue	0
9 AM Mon	57	58	NE 12	7781	7000	0	Blue	3
10 AM Mon	61	63	NE 12	9680	8618	1618	Blue	8
11 AM Mon	64	67	SW 7	10129	9779	2779	Blue	12
12 Noon Mon	67	71	SW 7	10740	10212	3212	Blue	16
1 PM Mon	70	74	SW 7	11486	10702	3702	Blue	19
2 PM Mon	70	74	SW 7	11486	10702	3702	Blue	19
3 PM Mon	70	73	SW 7	11238	10467	3467	Blue	18
4 PM Mon	67	68	SW 7	10221	9890	2890	Blue	13
5 PM Mon	64	64	NE 9	9792	9075	2075	Blue	9
6 PM Mon	60	60	NE 9	8654	7314	314	Blue	5
7 PM Mon	55	55	NE 9	6406	7000	0	Blue	0
8 PM Mon	54	54	NE 9	5870	7000	0	Blue	0
9 PM Mon	53	53	NE 9	5298	7000	0	Blue	0
10 PM Mon	53	53	NE 9	5298	7000	0	Blue	0
11 PM Mon	52	52	NE 13	5194	7000	0	Blue	0
12 Midnight Tue	52	52	NE 13	5194	7000	0	Blue	0
1 AM Tue	52	52	NE 13	5194	7000	0	Blue	0
2 AM Tue	52	52	NE 13	5194	7000	0	Blue	0
3 AM Tue	52	52	NE 13	5194	7000	0	Blue	0
4 AM Tue	53	53	NE 13	5298	7000	0	Blue	0
5 AM Tue	51	51	NE 10	5194	7000	0	Blue	0
6 AM Tue	52	52	NE 10	5194	7000	0	Blue	0
7 AM Tue	53	53	NE 10	5298	7000	0	Blue	0
8 AM Tue	57	57	NE 10	7332	7000	0	Blue	2
9 AM Tue	64	65	NE 10	9904	9529	2529	Blue	10
10 AM Tue	68	70	NE 10	10492	10114	3114	Blue	15
11 AM Tue	71	74	NW 10	11486	10702	3702	Blue	19
12 Noon Tue	74	78	NW 10	16032	11688	4688	Blue	23
1 PM Tue	77	81	NW 10	17754	15830	8830	Blue	26
2 PM Tue	77	81	NW 10	17754	15830	8830	Blue	26
3 PM Tue	76	79	NW 10	16630	13084	6084	Blue	24
4 PM Tue	73	74	NW 10	11486	10702	3702	Blue	19
5 PM Tue	67	67	NW 10	10129	9779	2779	Blue	12
6 PM Tue	61	61	NW 10	9120	7757	757	Blue	6
7 PM Tue	54	54	NW 10	5870	7000	0	Blue	0
8 PM Tue	51	51	NW 10	5194	7000	0	Blue	0
9 PM Tue	50	50	NW 10	5194	7000	0	Blue	0
10 PM Tue	50	50	NW 10	5194	7000	0	Blue	0
11 PM Tue	48	48	N 9	5194	7000	0	Blue	0
12 Midnight Wed	48	48	N 9	5194	7000	0	Blue	0
1 AM Wed	49	49	N 9	5194	7000	0	Blue	0
2 AM Wed	49	49	N 9	5194	7000	0	Blue	0
3 AM Wed	49	49	N 9	5194	7000	0	Blue	0
4 AM Wed	50	50	N 9	5194	7000	0	Blue	0
5 AM Wed	47	47	N 9	5194	7000	0	Blue	0
6 AM Wed	48	48	N 9	5194	7000	0	Blue	0
7 AM Wed	49	49	N 9	5194	7000	0	Blue	0
8 AM Wed	53	53	N 9	5298	7000	0	Blue	0
9 AM Wed	61	62	N 9	9568	8191	1191	Blue	7
10 AM Wed	65	67	N 9	10129	9779	2779	Blue	12
11 AM Wed	69	72	NW 12	10990	10288	3288	Blue	17
12 Noon Wed	72	76	NW 12	13379	11197	4197	Blue	21
1 PM Wed	75	79	NW 12	16630	13084	6084	Blue	24
2 PM Wed	75	79	NW 12	16630	13084	6084	Blue	24
3 PM Wed	74	77	NW 12	14635	11443	4443	Blue	22
4 PM Wed	71	72	NW 12	10990	10288	3288	Blue	17
5 PM Wed	65	65	NW 12	9904	9529	2529	Blue	10
6 PM Wed	58	58	NW 12	7781	7000	0	Blue	3
7 PM Wed	51	51	NW 12	5194	7000	0	Blue	0
8 PM Wed	48	48	NW 12	5194	7000	0	Blue	0
9 PM Wed	47	47	NW 12	5194	7000	0	Blue	0
10 PM Wed	47	47	NW 12	5194	7000	0	Blue	0
11 PM Wed	45	45	NE 12	5194	7000	0	Blue	0
12 Midnight Thu	45	45	NE 12	5194	7000	0	Blue	0
1 AM Thu	46	46	NE 12	5194	7000	0	Blue	0
2 AM Thu	46	46	NE 12	5194	7000	0	Blue	0
3 AM Thu	46	46	NE 12	5194	7000	0	Blue	0
4 AM Thu	47	47	NE 12	5194	7000	0	Blue	0
5 AM Thu	44	44	NE 12	5194	7000	0	Blue	0
6 AM Thu	45	45	NE 12	5194	7000	0	Blue	0
7 AM Thu	46	46	NE 12	5194	7000	0	Blue	0
8 AM Thu	50	50	NE 12	5194	7000	0	Blue	0
9 AM Thu	58	59	NE 12	8221	7000	0	Blue	4
10 AM Thu	63	65	NE 12	9904	9529	2529	Blue	10
11 AM Thu	67	70	NE 16	10492	10114	3114	Blue	15
12 Noon Thu	70	74	NE 16	11486	10702	3702	Blue	19
1 PM Thu	73	77	NE 16	14635	11443	4443	Blue	22
2 PM Thu	73	77	NE 16	14635	11443	4443	Blue	22
3 PM Thu	72	75	NE 16	11966	10950	3950	Blue	20
4 PM Thu	69	70	NE 16	10492	10114	3114	Blue	15
5 PM Thu	64	64	NE 15	9792	9075	2075	Blue	9
6 PM Thu	57	57	NE 15	7332	7000	0	Blue	2
7 PM Thu	50	50	NE 15	5194	7000	0	Blue	0
8 PM Thu	48	48	NE 15	5194	7000	0	Blue	0
9 PM Thu	47	47	NE 15	5194	7000	0	Blue	0
10 PM Thu	46	46	NE 15	5194	7000	0	Blue	0
11 PM Thu	45	45	NE 15	5194	7000	0	Blue	0
12 Midnight Fri	45	45	NE 15	5194	7000	0	Blue	0
1 AM Fri	46	46	NE 15	5194	7000	0	Blue	0
2 AM Fri	46	46	NE 15	5194	7000	0	Blue	0
3 AM Fri	46	46	NE 15	5194	7000	0	Blue	0
4 AM Fri	47	47	NE 15	5194	7000	0	Blue	0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only. No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates. These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying. Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released. If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid. Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST). If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level. We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes. Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate. Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink. It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website. Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature.

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun. When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air. The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals. A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable. Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates.

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]