Detailed Predictions for: Pine Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.63616582095678, -119.3070454653368, 7000
LZ Altitude (f): 4000
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 21 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Tue 64 64 ESE 17 26 5847 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 64 64 ESE 17 26 5847 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 64 64 ENE 19 29 5847 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 63 63 ENE 19 29 5695 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 63 63 ENE 19 29 5695 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 64 64 ENE 19 29 5847 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 64 64 ENE 19 29 5847 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 64 64 ENE 19 29 5847 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 67 67 ESE 23 34 6303 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 72 73 ESE 23 34 7766 7000 0 Blue 4
10 AM Tue 75 78 ESE 23 34 9257 8348 1348 Blue 8
11 AM Tue 77 81 SE 18 27 10127 9228 2228 Blue 11
12 Noon Tue 80 85 SE 18 27 11553 10375 3375 Blue 15
1 PM Tue 81 87 SE 18 27 13416 11048 4048 Blue 17
2 PM Tue 81 86 SW 9 13 12535 10713 3713 Blue 16
3 PM Tue 81 85 SW 9 13 11553 10375 3375 Blue 15
4 PM Tue 80 82 SW 9 13 10420 9518 2518 Blue 12
5 PM Tue 78 79 SSW 4 5 9549 8644 1644 Blue 9
6 PM Tue 76 76 SSW 4 5 8668 7750 750 Blue 6
7 PM Tue 72 72 SSW 4 5 7461 7000 0 Blue 3
8 PM Tue 68 68 SSW 4 5 6454 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 67 67 SSW 4 5 6303 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 66 66 SSW 4 5 6151 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 65 65 ESE 8 9 5999 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 64 64 ESE 8 9 5847 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 65 65 ESE 8 9 5999 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 64 64 SSE 6 8 5847 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 64 64 SSE 6 8 5847 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 63 63 SSE 6 8 5695 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 64 64 SSE 6 8 5847 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 64 64 SSE 6 8 5847 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 64 64 SSE 6 8 5847 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 67 67 SSE 6 8 6303 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 71 72 SSE 6 8 7461 7000 0 Blue 3
10 AM Wed 73 75 SSE 6 8 8370 7448 448 Blue 6
11 AM Wed 75 79 SSW 9 13 9549 8644 1644 Blue 9
12 Noon Wed 77 82 SSW 9 13 10420 9518 2518 Blue 12
1 PM Wed 78 83 SSW 9 13 10762 9805 2805 Blue 13
2 PM Wed 78 83 W 9 13 10762 9805 2805 Blue 13
3 PM Wed 78 82 W 9 13 10420 9518 2518 Blue 12
4 PM Wed 77 79 W 9 13 9549 8644 1644 Blue 9
5 PM Wed 75 76 W 9 13 8668 7750 750 Blue 6
6 PM Wed 74 74 W 9 13 8069 7143 143 Blue 5
7 PM Wed 70 70 W 9 13 6843 7000 0 Blue 1
8 PM Wed 67 67 W 9 13 6303 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 66 66 W 9 13 6151 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 65 65 W 9 13 5999 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 64 64 NNW 5 6 5847 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 63 63 NNW 5 6 5695 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 63 63 NNW 5 6 5695 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 63 63 NNW 5 6 5695 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 62 62 NNW 5 6 5543 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 62 62 NNW 5 6 5543 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 63 63 NNW 5 6 5695 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 63 63 NNW 5 6 5695 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 63 63 NNW 5 6 5695 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 65 65 NNW 5 6 5999 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 68 69 NNW 5 6 6606 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 69 72 NNW 5 6 7461 7000 0 Blue 3
11 AM Thu 71 75 SW 4 5 8370 7448 448 Blue 6
12 Noon Thu 72 77 SW 4 5 8963 8051 1051 Blue 7
1 PM Thu 73 78 SW 4 5 9257 8348 1348 Blue 8
2 PM Thu 73 78 SW 4 5 9257 8348 1348 Blue 8
3 PM Thu 73 77 SW 4 5 8963 8051 1051 Blue 7
4 PM Thu 72 74 SW 4 5 8069 7143 143 Blue 5
5 PM Thu 71 72 SSW 11 17 7461 7000 0 Blue 3
6 PM Thu 70 70 SSW 11 17 6843 7000 0 Blue 1
7 PM Thu 68 68 SSW 11 17 6454 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 65 65 SSW 11 17 5999 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 65 65 SSW 11 17 5999 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 64 64 SSW 11 17 5847 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 63 63 E 6 8 5695 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 63 63 E 6 8 5695 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 63 63 E 6 8 5695 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 63 63 E 6 8 5695 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 62 62 E 6 8 5543 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 62 62 E 6 8 5543 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 63 63 E 10 13 5695 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 63 63 E 10 13 5695 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 63 63 E 10 13 5695 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 65 65 ENE 8 10 5999 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 69 70 ENE 8 10 6843 7000 0 Blue 1
10 AM Fri 71 74 ENE 8 10 8069 7143 143 Blue 5
11 AM Fri 72 76 S 9 11 8668 7750 750 Blue 6
12 Noon Fri 74 79 S 9 11 9549 8644 1644 Blue 9
1 PM Fri 75 80 S 9 11 9839 8937 1937 Blue 10
2 PM Fri 75 80 SSW 10 13 9839 8937 1937 Blue 10
3 PM Fri 75 79 SSW 10 13 9549 8644 1644 Blue 9
4 PM Fri 74 76 SSW 10 13 8668 7750 750 Blue 6
5 PM Fri 73 74 SW 8 10 8069 7143 143 Blue 5
6 PM Fri 72 72 SW 8 10 7461 7000 0 Blue 3
7 PM Fri 69 69 SW 8 10 6606 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 66 66 WNW 9 11 6151 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 66 66 WNW 9 11 6151 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 65 65 WNW 9 11 5999 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 64 64 N 9 11 5847 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 64 64 N 9 11 5847 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 64 64 N 9 11 5847 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 64 64 NE 8 10 5847 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 63 63 NE 8 10 5695 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 63 63 NE 8 10 5695 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 64 64 ENE 9 11 5847 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 63 63 ENE 9 11 5695 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 63 63 ENE 9 11 5695 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 65 65 E 9 11 5999 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 68 69 E 9 11 6606 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 69 71 E 9 11 7153 7000 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sat 70 74 SSW 9 11 8069 7143 143 Blue 5
12 Noon Sat 71 75 SSW 9 11 8370 7448 448 Blue 6
1 PM Sat 72 77 SSW 9 11 8963 8051 1051 Blue 7
2 PM Sat 72 76 SSW 10 13 8668 7750 750 Blue 6
3 PM Sat 72 75 SSW 10 13 8370 7448 448 Blue 6
4 PM Sat 71 73 SSW 10 13 7766 7000 0 Blue 4
5 PM Sat 70 71 SW 10 13 7153 7000 0 Blue 2
6 PM Sat 69 69 SW 10 13 6606 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 66 66 SW 10 13 6151 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 63 63 WSW 8 10 5695 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 63 63 WSW 8 10 5695 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 62 62 WSW 8 10 5543 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 61 61 NW 9 11 5479 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 61 61 NW 9 11 5479 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 61 61 NW 9 11 5479 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 61 61 N 8 10 5479 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 60 60 N 8 10 5479 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 60 60 N 8 10 5479 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 61 61 N 8 10 5479 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 60 60 N 8 10 5479 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 60 60 N 8 10 5479 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 62 62 SSE 8 10 5543 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 65 66 SSE 8 10 6151 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 67 69 SSE 8 10 6606 7000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 68 72 SW 9 11 7461 7000 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Sun 69 74 SW 9 11 8069 7143 143 Blue 5
1 PM Sun 70 75 SW 9 11 8370 7448 448 Blue 6
2 PM Sun 70 75 SW 10 13 8370 7448 448 Blue 6
3 PM Sun 70 74 SW 10 13 8069 7143 143 Blue 5
4 PM Sun 69 71 SW 10 13 7153 7000 0 Blue 2
5 PM Sun 68 69 WSW 10 13 6606 7000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 67 67 WSW 10 13 6303 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 64 64 WSW 10 13 5847 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 61 61 W 8 10 5479 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 61 61 W 8 10 5479 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 60 60 W 8 10 5479 7000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]