Detailed Predictions for: Pine Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 7000
LZ Altitude (f): 4000
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

2 DEC 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 47 47 NE 9 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 46 46 NE 9 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 45 45 NE 9 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 46 46 NE 9 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 52 52 NE 9 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 54 54 NE 9 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 58 59 N 7 6432 7000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 60 61 N 7 7204 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 62 63 N 7 7956 7000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 62 63 NW 9 7956 7000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 60 60 NW 9 6821 7000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 58 58 NW 9 6039 7000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 52 52 NE 9 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 44 44 NE 9 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 42 42 NE 9 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 42 42 E 12 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 43 43 E 12 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 41 41 E 12 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 40 40 E 17 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 38 38 E 17 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 40 40 E 17 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 38 38 NE 16 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 38 38 NE 16 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 38 38 NE 16 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 39 39 NE 17 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 38 38 NE 17 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 37 37 NE 17 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 38 38 NE 17 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 44 44 NE 17 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 47 47 NE 17 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 51 52 E 17 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 54 55 E 17 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 56 57 E 17 5640 7000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 56 57 E 16 5640 7000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 55 56 E 16 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 53 53 E 16 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 49 49 NE 18 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 43 43 NE 18 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 42 42 NE 18 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 42 42 NE 17 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 42 42 NE 17 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 41 41 NE 17 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 40 40 NE 18 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 39 39 NE 18 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 40 40 NE 18 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 39 39 NE 21 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 39 39 NE 21 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 39 39 NE 21 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 39 39 NE 21 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 39 39 NE 21 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 38 38 NE 21 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 39 39 NE 20 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 46 46 NE 20 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 49 49 NE 20 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 53 54 NE 17 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 55 57 NE 17 5640 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 58 60 NE 17 6821 7000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 58 60 NE 16 6821 7000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 57 58 NE 16 6039 7000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 55 55 NE 16 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 51 51 NE 13 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 46 46 NE 13 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 45 45 NE 13 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 45 45 N 15 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 45 45 N 15 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 44 44 N 15 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 43 43 NE 17 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 42 42 NE 17 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 43 43 NE 17 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 42 42 NE 16 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 42 42 NE 16 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 42 42 NE 16 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 42 42 NE 14 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 42 42 NE 14 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 41 41 NE 14 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 42 42 NE 13 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 49 49 NE 13 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 52 53 NE 13 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 56 57 NE 13 5640 7000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 58 60 NE 13 6821 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 61 63 NE 13 7956 7000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 61 63 N 10 7956 7000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 60 61 N 10 7204 7000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 57 57 N 10 5640 7000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 53 53 N 10 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 47 47 N 10 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 45 45 N 10 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 45 45 N 13 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 46 46 N 13 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 44 44 N 13 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 43 43 NE 14 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 42 42 NE 14 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 44 44 NE 14 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 42 42 NE 14 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 42 42 NE 14 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 42 42 NE 14 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 42 42 NE 14 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 42 42 NE 14 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 41 41 NE 14 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 42 42 N 12 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 48 48 N 12 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 51 52 N 12 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 55 56 N 10 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 58 60 N 10 6821 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 60 62 N 10 7582 7000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 60 62 W 9 7582 7000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 59 60 W 9 6821 7000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 56 56 W 9 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 52 52 W 9 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 46 46 W 9 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 44 44 W 9 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 44 44 N 12 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 45 45 N 12 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 43 43 N 12 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 42 42 NE 13 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 41 41 NE 13 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 43 43 NE 13 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 41 41 NE 12 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 41 41 NE 12 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 41 41 NE 12 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 41 41 N 13 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 41 41 N 13 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 40 40 N 13 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 41 41 NE 12 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 47 47 NE 12 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 50 51 NE 12 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 54 55 E 9 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 57 59 E 9 6432 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 59 61 E 9 7204 7000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 59 61 E 12 7204 7000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 58 59 E 12 6432 7000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 56 56 E 12 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 52 52 NE 13 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 47 47 NE 13 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 46 46 NE 13 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 46 46 NE 14 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 46 46 NE 14 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 45 45 NE 14 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 44 44 NE 16 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 43 43 NE 16 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 44 44 NE 16 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 43 43 NE 13 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 43 43 NE 13 5394 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 43 43 NE 13 5394 7000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]