Detailed Predictions for: Pine Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.63616582095678, -119.3070454653368, 7000
LZ Altitude (f): 4000
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time UTC:

 250620/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Fri 60 60 NNW 16 24 5110 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 59 59 NNW 16 24 4823 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 58 58 N 20 31 4823 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 58 58 N 20 31 4823 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 58 58 N 20 31 4823 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 58 58 N 16 24 4823 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 57 57 N 16 24 4823 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 60 60 N 16 24 5110 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 64 65 N 13 20 7220 7000 0 Blue 2
9 AM Fri 67 70 N 13 20 8376 7673 673 Blue 7
10 AM Fri 68 73 N 13 20 9060 8359 1359 Blue 10
11 AM Fri 69 76 NW 13 20 12216 9038 2038 Blue 13
12 Noon Fri 70 78 NW 13 20 13624 11306 4306 Blue 15
1 PM Fri 70 79 NW 13 20 13952 12070 5070 Blue 16
2 PM Fri 69 77 NW 20 31 12940 10495 3495 Blue 14
3 PM Fri 69 76 NW 20 31 12216 9038 2038 Blue 13
4 PM Fri 69 74 NW 20 31 10605 8586 1586 Blue 11
5 PM Fri 67 70 NW 20 31 8376 7673 673 Blue 7
6 PM Fri 66 67 NW 20 31 7685 7000 0 Blue 4
7 PM Fri 62 62 NW 20 31 6215 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 57 57 NNW 18 27 4823 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 54 54 NNW 18 27 4823 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 54 54 NNW 18 27 4823 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 52 52 NNW 13 20 4823 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 52 52 NNW 13 20 4823 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 51 51 NNW 13 20 4823 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 50 50 NNW 18 27 4823 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 49 49 NNW 18 27 4823 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 49 49 NNW 18 27 4823 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 48 48 NNW 16 24 4823 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 48 48 NNW 16 24 4823 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 51 51 NNW 16 24 4823 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 53 54 NNW 16 24 4823 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 55 58 NNW 16 24 4823 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 56 61 NNW 16 24 5671 7000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 58 65 NW 19 29 7220 7000 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Sat 60 68 NW 19 29 7916 7212 212 Blue 5
1 PM Sat 61 70 NW 19 29 8376 7673 673 Blue 7
2 PM Sat 61 69 NNW 23 34 8146 7443 443 Blue 6
3 PM Sat 61 68 NNW 23 34 7916 7212 212 Blue 5
4 PM Sat 61 66 NNW 23 34 7453 7000 0 Blue 3
5 PM Sat 61 64 NNW 23 34 6987 7000 0 Blue 1
6 PM Sat 60 61 NNW 23 34 5671 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 57 57 NNW 23 34 4823 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 55 55 N 28 43 4823 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 54 54 N 28 43 4823 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 54 54 N 28 43 4823 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 52 52 N 32 48 4823 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 52 52 N 32 48 4823 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 50 50 N 32 48 4823 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 50 50 N 24 36 4823 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 49 49 N 24 36 4823 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 48 48 N 24 36 4823 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 48 48 N 12 19 4823 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 50 50 N 12 19 4823 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 54 54 N 12 19 4823 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 57 58 N 8 11 4823 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 60 63 N 8 11 6744 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 62 67 N 8 11 7685 7000 0 Blue 4
11 AM Sun 63 70 W 10 14 8376 7673 673 Blue 7
12 Noon Sun 65 74 W 10 14 10605 8586 1586 Blue 11
1 PM Sun 66 75 W 10 14 11442 8813 1813 Blue 12
2 PM Sun 67 75 WSW 10 14 11442 8813 1813 Blue 12
3 PM Sun 67 74 WSW 10 14 10605 8586 1586 Blue 11
4 PM Sun 67 72 WSW 10 14 8832 8131 1131 Blue 9
5 PM Sun 65 68 WSW 11 17 7916 7212 212 Blue 5
6 PM Sun 64 65 WSW 11 17 7220 7000 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sun 61 61 WSW 11 17 5671 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 59 59 W 12 19 4823 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 56 56 W 12 19 4823 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 54 54 W 12 19 4823 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 53 53 W 11 17 4823 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 52 52 W 11 17 4823 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 52 52 W 11 17 4823 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 52 52 W 9 12 4823 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 51 51 W 9 12 4823 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 51 51 W 9 12 4823 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 52 52 WNW 6 9 4823 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 54 54 WNW 6 9 4823 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 56 56 WNW 6 9 4823 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 59 60 SSW 10 14 5110 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 61 64 SSW 10 14 6987 7000 0 Blue 1
10 AM Mon 62 67 SSW 10 14 7685 7000 0 Blue 4
11 AM Mon 63 70 SSW 10 14 8376 7673 673 Blue 7
12 Noon Mon 65 74 SSW 10 14 10605 8586 1586 Blue 11
1 PM Mon 66 75 SSW 10 14 11442 8813 1813 Blue 12
2 PM Mon 67 75 SSW 10 14 11442 8813 1813 Blue 12
3 PM Mon 67 74 SSW 10 14 10605 8586 1586 Blue 11
4 PM Mon 67 72 SSW 10 14 8832 8131 1131 Blue 9
5 PM Mon 65 68 SSW 9 12 7916 7212 212 Blue 5
6 PM Mon 63 64 SSW 9 12 6987 7000 0 Blue 1
7 PM Mon 60 60 SSW 9 12 5110 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 58 58 SSW 8 11 4823 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 56 56 SSW 8 11 4823 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 54 54 SSW 8 11 4823 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 53 53 SSW 6 9 4823 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 53 53 SSW 6 9 4823 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 52 52 SSW 6 9 4823 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 52 52 S 5 8 4823 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 52 52 S 5 8 4823 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 52 52 S 5 8 4823 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 53 53 SSW 5 8 4823 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 55 55 SSW 5 8 4823 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 58 58 SSW 5 8 4823 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 60 61 SSW 9 12 5671 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 63 66 SSW 9 12 7453 7000 0 Blue 3
10 AM Tue 65 70 SSW 9 12 8376 7673 673 Blue 7
11 AM Tue 66 73 SSW 10 14 9060 8359 1359 Blue 10
12 Noon Tue 68 76 SSW 10 14 12216 9038 2038 Blue 13
1 PM Tue 68 77 SSW 10 14 12940 10495 3495 Blue 14
2 PM Tue 69 77 SSW 10 14 12940 10495 3495 Blue 14
3 PM Tue 69 76 SSW 10 14 12216 9038 2038 Blue 13
4 PM Tue 69 74 SSW 10 14 10605 8586 1586 Blue 11
5 PM Tue 68 71 SW 9 12 8604 7902 902 Blue 8
6 PM Tue 66 67 SW 9 12 7685 7000 0 Blue 4
7 PM Tue 64 64 SW 9 12 6987 7000 0 Blue 1
8 PM Tue 61 61 SSW 6 9 5671 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 59 59 SSW 6 9 4823 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 58 58 SSW 6 9 4823 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 57 57 SW 6 9 4823 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 56 56 SW 6 9 4823 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 56 56 SW 6 9 4823 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 56 56 WNW 6 9 4823 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 55 55 WNW 6 9 4823 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 55 55 WNW 6 9 4823 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 56 56 N 5 8 4823 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 58 58 N 5 8 4823 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 61 61 N 5 8 5671 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 64 65 SSW 8 11 7220 7000 0 Blue 2
9 AM Wed 67 70 SSW 8 11 8376 7673 673 Blue 7
10 AM Wed 68 73 SSW 8 11 9060 8359 1359 Blue 10
11 AM Wed 70 77 SSW 8 11 12940 10495 3495 Blue 14
12 Noon Wed 71 80 SSW 8 11 14040 12786 5786 Blue 17
1 PM Wed 72 81 SSW 8 11 14129 13463 6463 Blue 18
2 PM Wed 73 81 SSW 9 12 14129 13463 6463 Blue 18
3 PM Wed 73 80 SSW 9 12 14040 12786 5786 Blue 17
4 PM Wed 73 78 SSW 9 12 13624 11306 4306 Blue 15
5 PM Wed 72 75 SW 8 11 11442 8813 1813 Blue 12
6 PM Wed 70 71 SW 8 11 8604 7902 902 Blue 8
7 PM Wed 67 67 SW 8 11 7685 7000 0 Blue 4
8 PM Wed 65 65 WSW 8 11 7220 7000 0 Blue 2
9 PM Wed 63 63 WSW 8 11 6744 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 62 62 WSW 8 11 6215 7000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]