Detailed Predictions for: Pine Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.63616582095678, -119.3070454653368, 7000
LZ Altitude (f): 4000
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 6 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Wed 49 49 E 9 12 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 49 49 ESE 9 12 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 49 49 ESE 9 12 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 49 49 ESE 9 12 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 49 49 SE 10 14 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 49 49 SE 10 14 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 49 49 SE 10 14 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 48 48 SSE 9 12 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 51 51 SSE 9 12 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 55 56 SSE 9 12 6805 7000 0 Blue 1
10 AM Wed 56 57 SSW 10 16 7373 7000 0 Blue 2
11 AM Wed 58 60 SSW 10 16 9212 7350 350 Blue 5
12 Noon Wed 58 60 SSW 10 16 9212 7350 350 Blue 5
1 PM Wed 58 60 SW 10 14 9212 7350 350 Blue 5
2 PM Wed 57 58 SW 10 14 8112 7000 0 Blue 3
3 PM Wed 56 56 SW 10 14 6805 7000 0 Blue 1
4 PM Wed 54 54 W 9 11 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 50 50 W 9 11 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 49 49 W 9 11 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 48 48 NNW 10 14 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 47 47 NNW 10 14 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 46 46 NNW 10 14 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 45 45 NNW 11 17 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 45 45 NNW 11 17 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 45 45 NNW 11 17 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 43 43 NNW 13 20 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 43 43 NNW 13 20 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 42 42 NNW 13 20 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 41 41 NNW 16 24 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 42 42 NNW 16 24 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 41 41 NNW 16 24 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 40 40 N 19 29 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 39 39 N 19 29 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 39 39 N 19 29 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 39 40 N 20 31 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 41 42 N 20 31 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 41 42 N 20 31 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 41 42 N 21 33 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 39 40 N 21 33 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 36 36 N 21 33 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 34 34 N 25 37 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 33 33 N 25 37 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 34 34 N 25 37 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 34 34 N 27 41 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 34 34 N 27 41 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 33 33 N 27 41 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 32 32 N 32 48 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 32 32 N 32 48 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 32 32 N 32 48 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 32 32 N 33 50 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 32 32 N 33 50 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 32 32 N 33 50 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 32 32 N 32 48 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 32 32 N 32 48 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 32 32 N 32 48 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 32 32 N 28 43 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 33 33 N 28 43 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 34 34 N 28 43 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 36 38 N 25 37 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 38 40 N 25 37 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 41 43 N 25 37 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 42 44 N 23 34 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 42 43 N 23 34 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 40 40 N 23 34 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 38 38 N 18 27 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 36 36 N 18 27 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 35 35 N 18 27 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 34 34 N 18 27 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 34 34 N 18 27 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 35 35 N 18 27 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 35 35 NNE 16 24 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 35 35 NNE 16 24 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 35 35 NNE 16 24 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 35 35 NE 16 24 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 35 35 NE 16 24 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 35 35 NE 16 24 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 35 35 NNE 13 20 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 35 35 NNE 13 20 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 35 35 NNE 13 20 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 36 36 NNE 12 19 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 38 38 NNE 12 19 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 41 42 NNE 12 19 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 44 45 NNE 10 14 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 46 48 NNE 10 14 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 48 50 NNE 10 14 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 49 51 NNW 10 14 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 48 49 NNW 10 14 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 47 47 NNW 10 14 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 45 45 NNW 9 12 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 43 43 NNW 9 12 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 41 41 NNW 9 12 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 40 40 N 10 14 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 39 39 N 10 14 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 39 39 N 10 14 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 39 39 N 11 17 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 39 39 N 11 17 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 40 40 N 11 17 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 40 40 N 10 14 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 41 41 N 10 14 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 41 41 N 10 14 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 41 41 N 11 17 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 41 41 N 11 17 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 40 40 N 11 17 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 41 41 N 10 14 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 43 43 N 10 14 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 47 47 N 10 14 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 50 51 N 10 14 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 52 53 N 10 14 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 53 55 N 10 14 6218 7000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 53 54 NNW 11 17 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 50 51 NNW 11 17 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 46 46 NNW 11 17 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 42 42 NNW 10 14 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 39 39 NNW 10 14 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 36 36 NNW 10 14 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 35 35 N 11 17 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 35 35 N 11 17 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 35 35 N 11 17 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 35 35 N 11 17 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 35 35 N 11 17 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 35 35 N 11 17 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 35 35 N 11 17 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 36 36 N 11 17 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 37 37 N 11 17 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 38 38 N 11 17 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 37 37 N 11 17 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 37 37 N 11 17 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 38 38 N 11 17 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 40 40 N 11 17 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 43 43 N 11 17 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 46 47 NNW 9 12 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 50 52 NNW 9 12 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 53 55 NNW 9 12 6218 7000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 53 54 W 10 14 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 52 53 W 10 14 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 50 50 W 10 14 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 48 48 W 10 14 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 46 46 W 10 14 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 45 45 W 10 14 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 44 44 NNW 11 17 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 44 44 NNW 11 17 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 44 44 NNW 11 17 5663 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 44 44 N 11 17 5663 7000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]