Detailed Predictions for: Saddle Peak
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.076058, -118.658831, 2770
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

23 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 64 64 WNW 4 5 2290 2770 0 Blue 7
1 AM Wed 63 63 WNW 4 5 2247 2770 0 Blue 6
2 AM Wed 62 62 S 4 5 2205 2770 0 Blue 5
3 AM Wed 60 60 S 4 5 2120 2770 0 Blue 3
4 AM Wed 59 59 S 4 5 2078 2770 0 Blue 2
5 AM Wed 59 59 SSW 3 4 2078 2770 0 Blue 2
6 AM Wed 58 58 SSW 3 4 2035 2770 0 Blue 1
7 AM Wed 59 59 SSW 3 4 2078 2770 0 Blue 2
8 AM Wed 63 64 SSE 5 6 2290 2770 0 Blue 7
9 AM Wed 68 70 SSE 5 6 2658 2770 0 Blue 13
10 AM Wed 72 75 SSE 5 6 3292 2977 207 Blue 18
11 AM Wed 74 79 S 10 13 3930 3380 610 Blue 22
12 Noon Wed 76 82 S 10 13 4351 3920 1150 Blue 25
1 PM Wed 77 83 S 10 13 4699 4060 1290 Blue 26
2 PM Wed 78 84 SSW 12 17 5282 4199 1429 Blue 27
3 PM Wed 78 83 SSW 12 17 4699 4060 1290 Blue 26
4 PM Wed 78 81 SSW 12 17 4211 3566 796 Blue 24
5 PM Wed 77 80 SW 12 17 4071 3473 703 Blue 23
6 PM Wed 77 78 SW 12 17 3572 3286 516 Blue 21
7 PM Wed 74 74 SW 12 17 3198 2775 5 Blue 17
8 PM Wed 71 71 WSW 6 8 2780 2770 0 Blue 14
9 PM Wed 67 67 WSW 6 8 2417 2770 0 Blue 10
10 PM Wed 65 65 WSW 6 8 2332 2770 0 Blue 8
11 PM Wed 63 63 SW 5 6 2247 2770 0 Blue 6
12 Midnight Thu 61 61 SW 5 6 2162 2770 0 Blue 4
1 AM Thu 60 60 SW 5 6 2120 2770 0 Blue 3
2 AM Thu 59 59 SSW 4 5 2078 2770 0 Blue 2
3 AM Thu 58 58 SSW 4 5 2035 2770 0 Blue 1
4 AM Thu 57 57 SSW 4 5 1993 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 57 57 SSE 4 5 1993 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 56 56 SSE 4 5 791 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 58 58 SSE 4 5 2035 2770 0 Blue 1
8 AM Thu 61 61 S 5 6 2162 2770 0 Blue 4
9 AM Thu 67 67 S 5 6 2417 2770 0 Blue 10
10 AM Thu 71 72 S 5 6 2983 2770 0 Blue 15
11 AM Thu 73 79 S 12 17 3930 3380 610 Blue 22
12 Noon Thu 76 83 S 12 17 4699 4060 1290 Blue 26
1 PM Thu 77 84 S 12 17 5282 4199 1429 Blue 27
2 PM Thu 78 85 SW 12 17 5519 4339 1569 Blue 28
3 PM Thu 78 84 SW 12 17 5282 4199 1429 Blue 27
4 PM Thu 78 82 SW 12 17 4351 3920 1150 Blue 25
5 PM Thu 77 80 SW 11 16 4071 3473 703 Blue 23
6 PM Thu 77 78 SW 11 16 3572 3286 516 Blue 21
7 PM Thu 74 74 SW 11 16 3198 2775 5 Blue 17
8 PM Thu 70 70 WNW 6 8 2658 2770 0 Blue 13
9 PM Thu 66 66 WNW 6 8 2374 2770 0 Blue 9
10 PM Thu 64 64 WNW 6 8 2290 2770 0 Blue 7
11 PM Thu 62 62 ESE 5 6 2205 2770 0 Blue 5
12 Midnight Fri 60 60 ESE 5 6 2120 2770 0 Blue 3
1 AM Fri 59 59 ESE 5 6 2078 2770 0 Blue 2
2 AM Fri 58 58 SE 4 5 2035 2770 0 Blue 1
3 AM Fri 57 57 SE 4 5 1993 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 56 56 SE 4 5 791 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 56 56 ESE 4 5 791 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 55 55 ESE 4 5 791 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 57 57 ESE 4 5 1993 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 61 62 S 4 5 2205 2770 0 Blue 5
9 AM Fri 68 70 S 4 5 2658 2770 0 Blue 13
10 AM Fri 72 75 S 4 5 3292 2977 207 Blue 18
11 AM Fri 75 82 SSW 10 13 4351 3920 1150 Blue 25
12 Noon Fri 77 85 SSW 10 13 5519 4339 1569 Blue 28
1 PM Fri 79 88 SSW 10 13 7030 5490 2720 Blue 31
2 PM Fri 80 88 SW 12 17 7030 5490 2720 Blue 31
3 PM Fri 80 87 SW 12 17 6336 5254 2484 Blue 30
4 PM Fri 80 85 SW 12 17 5519 4339 1569 Blue 28
5 PM Fri 79 82 SW 11 16 4351 3920 1150 Blue 25
6 PM Fri 79 80 SW 11 16 4071 3473 703 Blue 23
7 PM Fri 76 76 SW 11 16 3385 3100 330 Blue 19
8 PM Fri 72 72 WNW 8 9 2983 2770 0 Blue 15
9 PM Fri 68 68 WNW 8 9 2459 2770 0 Blue 11
10 PM Fri 66 66 WNW 8 9 2374 2770 0 Blue 9
11 PM Fri 63 63 ESE 5 6 2247 2770 0 Blue 6
12 Midnight Sat 61 61 ESE 5 6 2162 2770 0 Blue 4
1 AM Sat 60 60 ESE 5 6 2120 2770 0 Blue 3
2 AM Sat 59 59 ESE 5 6 2078 2770 0 Blue 2
3 AM Sat 58 58 ESE 5 6 2035 2770 0 Blue 1
4 AM Sat 57 57 ESE 5 6 1993 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 57 57 ENE 5 8 1993 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 56 56 ENE 5 8 791 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 58 58 ENE 5 8 2035 2770 0 Blue 1
8 AM Sat 63 64 ESE 5 8 2290 2770 0 Blue 7
9 AM Sat 71 73 ESE 5 8 3105 2770 0 Blue 16
10 AM Sat 76 80 ESE 5 8 4071 3473 703 Blue 23
11 AM Sat 79 86 SSW 11 14 5756 4619 1849 Blue 29
12 Noon Sat 82 91 SSW 11 14 8130 6952 4182 Blue 34
1 PM Sat 83 92 SSW 11 14 8320 7389 4619 Blue 35
2 PM Sat 85 93 SW 13 19 8511 7818 5048 Blue 36
3 PM Sat 85 92 SW 13 19 8320 7389 4619 Blue 35
4 PM Sat 85 90 SW 13 19 7905 6204 3434 Blue 33
5 PM Sat 84 87 WSW 13 19 6336 5254 2484 Blue 30
6 PM Sat 84 85 WSW 13 19 5519 4339 1569 Blue 28
7 PM Sat 82 82 WSW 13 19 4351 3920 1150 Blue 25
8 PM Sat 79 79 SW 9 12 3930 3380 610 Blue 22
9 PM Sat 76 76 SW 9 12 3385 3100 330 Blue 19
10 PM Sat 74 74 SW 9 12 3198 2775 5 Blue 17
11 PM Sat 73 73 SE 5 8 3105 2770 0 Blue 16
12 Midnight Sun 71 71 SE 5 8 2780 2770 0 Blue 14
1 AM Sun 70 70 SE 5 8 2658 2770 0 Blue 13
2 AM Sun 69 69 E 5 8 2536 2770 0 Blue 12
3 AM Sun 68 68 E 5 8 2459 2770 0 Blue 11
4 AM Sun 68 68 E 5 8 2459 2770 0 Blue 11
5 AM Sun 68 68 E 5 8 2459 2770 0 Blue 11
6 AM Sun 67 67 E 5 8 2417 2770 0 Blue 10
7 AM Sun 68 68 E 5 8 2459 2770 0 Blue 11
8 AM Sun 72 73 ESE 5 8 3105 2770 0 Blue 16
9 AM Sun 77 80 ESE 5 8 4071 3473 703 Blue 23
10 AM Sun 81 86 ESE 5 8 5756 4619 1849 Blue 29
11 AM Sun 83 90 S 10 14 7905 6204 3434 Blue 33
12 Noon Sun 85 93 S 10 14 8511 7818 5048 Blue 36
1 PM Sun 86 95 S 10 14 9434 8279 5509 Blue 38
2 PM Sun 87 95 SW 12 17 9434 8279 5509 Blue 38
3 PM Sun 87 94 SW 12 17 8803 8089 5319 Blue 37
4 PM Sun 87 92 SW 12 17 8320 7389 4619 Blue 35
5 PM Sun 86 89 WSW 12 17 7471 5725 2955 Blue 32
6 PM Sun 86 87 WSW 12 17 6336 5254 2484 Blue 30
7 PM Sun 83 83 WSW 12 17 4699 4060 1290 Blue 26
8 PM Sun 80 80 SW 9 11 4071 3473 703 Blue 23
9 PM Sun 76 76 SW 9 11 3385 3100 330 Blue 19
10 PM Sun 74 74 SW 9 11 3198 2775 5 Blue 17
11 PM Sun 73 73 SE 6 9 3105 2770 0 Blue 16
12 Midnight Mon 71 71 SE 6 9 2780 2770 0 Blue 14
1 AM Mon 70 70 SE 6 9 2658 2770 0 Blue 13
2 AM Mon 69 69 E 6 9 2536 2770 0 Blue 12
3 AM Mon 68 68 E 6 9 2459 2770 0 Blue 11
4 AM Mon 67 67 E 6 9 2417 2770 0 Blue 10
5 AM Mon 67 67 E 6 9 2417 2770 0 Blue 10
6 AM Mon 66 66 E 6 9 2374 2770 0 Blue 9
7 AM Mon 68 68 E 6 9 2459 2770 0 Blue 11
8 AM Mon 71 72 SE 5 8 2983 2770 0 Blue 15
9 AM Mon 77 80 SE 5 8 4071 3473 703 Blue 23
10 AM Mon 81 86 SE 5 8 5756 4619 1849 Blue 29
11 AM Mon 83 90 SSW 10 14 7905 6204 3434 Blue 33
12 Noon Mon 86 94 SSW 10 14 8803 8089 5319 Blue 37
1 PM Mon 87 95 SSW 10 14 9434 8279 5509 Blue 38
2 PM Mon 88 96 SW 13 18 9770 8468 5698 Blue 39
3 PM Mon 88 94 SW 13 18 8803 8089 5319 Blue 37
4 PM Mon 88 93 SW 13 18 8511 7818 5048 Blue 36
5 PM Mon 87 90 WSW 12 18 7905 6204 3434 Blue 33
6 PM Mon 87 88 WSW 12 18 7030 5490 2720 Blue 31
7 PM Mon 85 85 WSW 12 18 5519 4339 1569 Blue 28
8 PM Mon 82 82 SW 8 11 4351 3920 1150 Blue 25
9 PM Mon 78 78 SW 8 11 3572 3286 516 Blue 21
10 PM Mon 77 77 SW 8 11 3478 3193 423 Blue 20

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]