Detailed Predictions for: Saddle Peak
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.076058, -118.658831, 2770
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

21 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 62 62 ENE 2 2 1181 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 61 61 ENE 2 2 1181 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 60 60 ENE 3 4 1181 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 59 59 ENE 3 4 1181 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 58 58 ENE 3 4 1181 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 58 58 ENE 17 26 1181 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 57 57 ENE 17 26 1181 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 57 57 ENE 17 26 1181 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 61 61 ESE 12 19 1181 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 70 71 ESE 12 19 1520 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 79 82 ESE 12 19 3336 2770 0 Blue 6
11 AM Tue 87 91 ESE 9 13 6180 5730 2960 Blue 15
12 Noon Tue 90 95 ESE 9 13 6834 6302 3532 Blue 19
1 PM Tue 92 98 ESE 9 13 7700 6786 4016 Blue 22
2 PM Tue 94 99 SW 6 10 7984 7074 4304 Blue 23
3 PM Tue 95 99 SW 6 10 7984 7074 4304 Blue 23
4 PM Tue 95 97 SW 6 10 7413 6588 3818 Blue 21
5 PM Tue 94 95 SSW 1 1 6834 6302 3532 Blue 19
6 PM Tue 91 91 SSW 1 1 6180 5730 2960 Blue 15
7 PM Tue 86 86 SSW 1 1 5446 3609 839 Blue 10
8 PM Tue 80 80 SSW 1 1 2949 2770 0 Blue 4
9 PM Tue 75 75 SSW 1 1 1738 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 72 72 SSW 1 1 1574 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 69 69 NNE 3 4 1411 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 67 67 NNE 3 4 1302 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 65 65 NNE 3 4 1193 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 64 64 NW 2 2 1181 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 63 63 NW 2 2 1181 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 62 62 NW 2 2 1181 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 62 62 NW 2 2 1181 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 61 61 NW 2 2 1181 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 61 61 NW 2 2 1181 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 64 64 NW 2 2 1181 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 73 74 NW 2 2 1683 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 81 83 NW 2 2 3652 2941 171 Blue 7
11 AM Wed 89 93 SW 5 9 6467 6016 3246 Blue 17
12 Noon Wed 92 97 SW 5 9 7413 6588 3818 Blue 21
1 PM Wed 94 99 SW 5 9 7984 7074 4304 Blue 23
2 PM Wed 95 100 W 8 12 8267 7360 4590 Blue 24
3 PM Wed 96 100 W 8 12 8267 7360 4590 Blue 24
4 PM Wed 96 98 W 8 12 7700 6786 4016 Blue 22
5 PM Wed 95 96 W 8 12 7125 6445 3675 Blue 20
6 PM Wed 91 91 W 8 12 6180 5730 2960 Blue 15
7 PM Wed 86 86 W 8 12 5446 3609 839 Blue 10
8 PM Wed 79 79 W 8 12 2755 2770 0 Blue 3
9 PM Wed 74 74 W 8 12 1683 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 71 71 W 8 12 1520 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 68 68 N 2 2 1356 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 66 66 N 2 2 1248 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 64 64 N 2 2 1181 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 62 62 N 2 2 1181 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 62 62 N 2 2 1181 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 60 60 N 2 2 1181 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 60 60 N 2 2 1181 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 59 59 N 2 2 1181 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 59 59 N 2 2 1181 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 62 62 N 2 2 1181 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 68 69 N 2 2 1411 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 74 76 N 2 2 1799 2770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 79 83 SW 6 10 3652 2941 171 Blue 7
12 Noon Thu 82 87 SW 6 10 5605 4264 1494 Blue 11
1 PM Thu 83 88 SW 6 10 5749 4891 2121 Blue 12
2 PM Thu 85 89 SW 6 10 5893 5415 2645 Blue 13
3 PM Thu 85 88 SW 6 10 5749 4891 2121 Blue 12
4 PM Thu 85 87 SW 6 10 5605 4264 1494 Blue 11
5 PM Thu 84 85 WSW 11 17 4950 3326 556 Blue 9
6 PM Thu 82 82 WSW 11 17 3336 2770 0 Blue 6
7 PM Thu 78 78 WSW 11 17 2560 2770 0 Blue 2
8 PM Thu 73 73 WSW 11 17 1629 2770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 69 69 WSW 11 17 1411 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 67 67 WSW 11 17 1302 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 65 65 NNE 5 6 1193 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 63 63 NNE 5 6 1181 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 61 61 NNE 5 6 1181 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 60 60 NNE 5 6 1181 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 60 60 NNE 5 6 1181 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 59 59 NNE 5 6 1181 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 59 59 NE 5 8 1181 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 58 58 NE 5 8 1181 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 58 58 NE 5 8 1181 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 61 61 ENE 5 8 1181 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 67 68 ENE 5 8 1356 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 73 75 ENE 5 8 1738 2770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 78 82 S 9 12 3336 2770 0 Blue 6
12 Noon Fri 81 86 S 9 12 5446 3609 839 Blue 10
1 PM Fri 82 87 S 9 12 5605 4264 1494 Blue 11
2 PM Fri 84 89 SW 12 17 5893 5415 2645 Blue 13
3 PM Fri 84 88 SW 12 17 5749 4891 2121 Blue 12
4 PM Fri 84 86 SW 12 17 5446 3609 839 Blue 10
5 PM Fri 83 84 WSW 11 14 4319 3133 363 Blue 8
6 PM Fri 81 81 WSW 11 14 3143 2770 0 Blue 5
7 PM Fri 77 77 WSW 11 14 1869 2770 0 Blue 1
8 PM Fri 72 72 W 5 8 1574 2770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 69 69 W 5 8 1411 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 66 66 W 5 8 1248 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 64 64 WNW 4 5 1181 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 63 63 WNW 4 5 1181 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 61 61 WNW 4 5 1181 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 60 60 N 5 8 1181 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 60 60 N 5 8 1181 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 59 59 N 5 8 1181 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 59 59 N 5 8 1181 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 58 58 N 5 8 1181 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 58 58 N 5 8 1181 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 60 60 ENE 5 8 1181 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 66 67 ENE 5 8 1302 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 72 74 ENE 5 8 1683 2770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 77 80 SSW 9 11 2949 2770 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Sat 79 83 SSW 9 11 3652 2941 171 Blue 7
1 PM Sat 80 84 SSW 9 11 4319 3133 363 Blue 8
2 PM Sat 82 86 SW 11 16 5446 3609 839 Blue 10
3 PM Sat 82 85 SW 11 16 4950 3326 556 Blue 9
4 PM Sat 82 84 SW 11 16 4319 3133 363 Blue 8
5 PM Sat 81 82 WSW 11 14 3336 2770 0 Blue 6
6 PM Sat 79 79 WSW 11 14 2755 2770 0 Blue 3
7 PM Sat 75 75 WSW 11 14 1738 2770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 71 71 W 8 10 1520 2770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 67 67 W 8 10 1302 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 65 65 W 8 10 1193 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 63 63 W 5 8 1181 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 62 62 W 5 8 1181 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 60 60 W 5 8 1181 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 59 59 WSW 6 9 1181 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 59 59 WSW 6 9 1181 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 58 58 WSW 6 9 1181 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 58 58 E 5 8 1181 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 57 57 E 5 8 1181 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 57 57 E 5 8 1181 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 59 59 S 5 8 1181 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 65 66 S 5 8 1248 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 71 73 S 5 8 1629 2770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 76 79 SSW 8 10 2755 2770 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Sun 78 82 SSW 8 10 3336 2770 0 Blue 6
1 PM Sun 79 84 SSW 8 10 4319 3133 363 Blue 8
2 PM Sun 81 85 SW 11 16 4950 3326 556 Blue 9
3 PM Sun 81 84 SW 11 16 4319 3133 363 Blue 8
4 PM Sun 81 83 SW 11 16 3652 2941 171 Blue 7
5 PM Sun 80 81 WSW 11 14 3143 2770 0 Blue 5
6 PM Sun 78 78 WSW 11 14 2560 2770 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sun 74 74 WSW 11 14 1683 2770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 69 69 W 6 9 1411 2770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 66 66 W 6 9 1248 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 63 63 W 6 9 1181 2770 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]