Detailed Predictions for: Saddle Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 2770
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

19 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 51 51 N 14 794 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 51 51 N 14 794 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 52 52 N 14 794 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 52 52 N 13 794 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 57 58 N 13 886 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 65 67 N 13 2845 2770 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sat 72 75 NW 13 4307 3786 1016 Blue 9
12 Noon Sat 76 80 NW 13 6454 4620 1850 Blue 14
1 PM Sat 78 82 NW 13 7311 5898 3128 Blue 16
2 PM Sat 78 82 SW 18 7311 5898 3128 Blue 16
3 PM Sat 77 80 SW 18 6454 4620 1850 Blue 14
4 PM Sat 76 77 SW 18 4636 4129 1359 Blue 11
5 PM Sat 75 75 N 22 4307 3786 1016 Blue 9
6 PM Sat 72 72 N 22 3799 3218 448 Blue 6
7 PM Sat 69 69 N 22 3228 2770 0 Blue 3
8 PM Sat 66 66 N 24 1873 2770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 63 63 N 24 1503 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 61 61 N 24 1256 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 59 59 N 31 1009 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 59 59 N 31 1009 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 58 58 N 31 886 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 58 58 N 30 886 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 57 57 N 30 794 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 57 57 N 30 794 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 55 55 N 31 794 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 55 55 N 31 794 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 56 56 N 31 794 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 56 56 N 32 794 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 61 62 N 32 1379 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 69 71 N 32 3609 3027 257 Blue 5
11 AM Sun 75 78 N 30 5448 4293 1523 Blue 12
12 Noon Sun 79 83 N 30 7727 6386 3616 Blue 17
1 PM Sun 81 85 N 30 8540 7233 4463 Blue 19
2 PM Sun 81 85 N 30 8540 7233 4463 Blue 19
3 PM Sun 80 83 N 30 7727 6386 3616 Blue 17
4 PM Sun 79 80 N 30 6454 4620 1850 Blue 14
5 PM Sun 78 78 N 21 5448 4293 1523 Blue 12
6 PM Sun 76 76 N 21 4472 3965 1195 Blue 10
7 PM Sun 72 72 N 21 3799 3218 448 Blue 6
8 PM Sun 69 69 N 21 3228 2770 0 Blue 3
9 PM Sun 67 67 N 21 2845 2770 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sun 65 65 N 21 1750 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 63 63 NE 16 1503 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 63 63 NE 16 1503 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 62 62 NE 16 1379 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 62 62 NE 16 1379 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 61 61 NE 16 1256 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 61 61 NE 16 1256 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 59 59 N 17 1009 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 59 59 N 17 1009 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 60 60 N 17 1133 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 60 60 N 17 1133 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 66 67 N 17 2845 2770 0 Blue 1
10 AM Mon 74 76 N 17 4472 3965 1195 Blue 10
11 AM Mon 81 84 N 17 8137 6814 4044 Blue 18
12 Noon Mon 85 89 N 17 9733 8858 6088 Blue 23
1 PM Mon 87 91 N 17 9945 9598 6828 Blue 25
2 PM Mon 87 91 N 17 9945 9598 6828 Blue 25
3 PM Mon 86 89 N 17 9733 8858 6088 Blue 23
4 PM Mon 85 86 N 17 8962 7645 4875 Blue 20
5 PM Mon 84 84 N 14 8137 6814 4044 Blue 18
6 PM Mon 81 81 N 14 6887 5383 2613 Blue 15
7 PM Mon 76 76 N 14 4472 3965 1195 Blue 10
8 PM Mon 73 73 N 14 3978 3407 637 Blue 7
9 PM Mon 70 70 N 14 3419 2837 67 Blue 4
10 PM Mon 68 68 N 14 3036 2770 0 Blue 2
11 PM Mon 66 66 N 12 1873 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 65 65 N 12 1750 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 65 65 N 12 1750 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 64 64 N 12 1626 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 63 63 N 12 1503 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 63 63 N 12 1503 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 61 61 N 9 1256 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 61 61 N 9 1256 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 62 62 N 9 1379 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 62 62 N 9 1379 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 68 69 N 9 3228 2770 0 Blue 3
10 AM Tue 78 80 N 9 6454 4620 1850 Blue 14
11 AM Tue 85 88 W 16 9626 8449 5679 Blue 22
12 Noon Tue 89 93 W 16 10158 9810 7040 Blue 27
1 PM Tue 92 96 W 16 10512 10127 7357 Blue 30
2 PM Tue 92 96 W 16 10512 10127 7357 Blue 30
3 PM Tue 91 94 W 16 10234 9916 7146 Blue 28
4 PM Tue 90 91 W 16 9945 9598 6828 Blue 25
5 PM Tue 88 88 NW 17 9626 8449 5679 Blue 22
6 PM Tue 84 84 NW 17 8137 6814 4044 Blue 18
7 PM Tue 78 78 NW 17 5448 4293 1523 Blue 12
8 PM Tue 74 74 NW 17 4143 3597 827 Blue 8
9 PM Tue 70 70 NW 17 3419 2837 67 Blue 4
10 PM Tue 67 67 NW 17 2845 2770 0 Blue 1
11 PM Tue 65 65 N 10 1750 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 64 64 N 10 1626 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 63 63 N 10 1503 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 63 63 N 10 1503 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 61 61 N 10 1256 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 61 61 N 10 1256 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 58 58 N 10 886 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 58 58 N 10 886 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 59 59 N 10 1009 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 59 59 N 10 1009 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 64 65 N 10 1750 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 72 74 N 10 4143 3597 827 Blue 8
11 AM Wed 79 82 SW 13 7311 5898 3128 Blue 16
12 Noon Wed 83 87 SW 13 9391 8051 5281 Blue 21
1 PM Wed 85 89 SW 13 9733 8858 6088 Blue 23
2 PM Wed 85 89 SW 13 9733 8858 6088 Blue 23
3 PM Wed 84 87 SW 13 9391 8051 5281 Blue 21
4 PM Wed 83 84 SW 13 8137 6814 4044 Blue 18
5 PM Wed 81 81 W 15 6887 5383 2613 Blue 15
6 PM Wed 78 78 W 15 5448 4293 1523 Blue 12
7 PM Wed 73 73 W 15 3978 3407 637 Blue 7
8 PM Wed 69 69 W 15 3228 2770 0 Blue 3
9 PM Wed 66 66 W 15 1873 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 63 63 W 15 1503 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 61 61 NE 12 1256 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 60 60 NE 12 1133 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 59 59 NE 12 1009 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 59 59 NE 12 1009 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 58 58 NE 12 886 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 58 58 NE 12 886 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 55 55 NE 14 794 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 55 55 NE 14 794 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 56 56 NE 14 794 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 56 56 NE 14 794 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 62 63 NE 14 1503 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 70 72 NE 14 3799 3218 448 Blue 6
11 AM Thu 77 80 NE 20 6454 4620 1850 Blue 14
12 Noon Thu 81 85 NE 20 8540 7233 4463 Blue 19
1 PM Thu 83 87 NE 20 9391 8051 5281 Blue 21
2 PM Thu 83 87 NE 20 9391 8051 5281 Blue 21
3 PM Thu 82 85 NE 20 8540 7233 4463 Blue 19
4 PM Thu 81 82 NE 20 7311 5898 3128 Blue 16
5 PM Thu 80 80 NE 17 6454 4620 1850 Blue 14
6 PM Thu 77 77 NE 17 4636 4129 1359 Blue 11
7 PM Thu 72 72 NE 17 3799 3218 448 Blue 6
8 PM Thu 69 69 NE 17 3228 2770 0 Blue 3
9 PM Thu 66 66 NE 17 1873 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 64 64 NE 17 1626 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 62 62 NE 15 1379 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 61 61 NE 15 1256 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 61 61 NE 15 1256 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 60 60 NE 15 1133 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 59 59 NE 15 1009 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 59 59 NE 15 1009 2770 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]