Detailed Predictions for: Saddle Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 2770
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

2 DEC 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 43 43 N 21 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 42 42 N 21 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 43 43 N 21 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 43 43 NE 22 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 48 48 NE 22 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 55 56 NE 22 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 63 64 NE 15 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 69 70 NE 15 1560 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 72 73 NE 15 2616 2770 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 73 74 N 14 2840 2770 0 Blue 1
2 PM Wed 74 75 N 14 3059 2770 0 Blue 2
3 PM Wed 72 72 N 14 2267 2770 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 69 69 N 15 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 63 63 N 15 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 57 57 N 15 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 53 53 N 20 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 48 48 N 20 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 45 45 N 20 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 42 42 NE 22 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 40 40 NE 22 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 40 40 NE 22 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 39 39 NE 28 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 38 38 NE 28 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 37 37 NE 28 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 36 36 NE 31 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 35 35 NE 31 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 36 36 NE 31 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 36 36 NE 31 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 41 41 NE 31 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 49 49 NE 31 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 58 59 NE 33 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 64 66 NE 33 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 67 69 NE 33 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 68 69 NE 24 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 69 70 NE 24 1560 2770 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 67 67 NE 24 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 65 65 N 26 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 59 59 N 26 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 54 54 N 26 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 50 50 N 23 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 46 46 N 23 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 43 43 N 23 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 40 40 N 26 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 38 38 N 26 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 39 39 N 26 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 38 38 N 26 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 37 37 N 26 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 35 35 N 26 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 35 35 NE 22 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 34 34 NE 22 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 35 35 NE 22 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 35 35 NE 23 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 41 41 NE 23 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 50 50 NE 23 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 59 60 NE 21 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 65 67 NE 21 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 69 71 NE 21 1915 2770 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 70 72 N 20 2267 2770 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 71 72 N 20 2267 2770 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 70 70 N 20 1560 2770 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 68 68 N 17 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 63 63 N 17 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 59 59 N 17 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 56 56 N 14 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 53 53 N 14 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 50 50 N 14 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 48 48 N 16 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 46 46 N 16 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 47 47 N 16 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 46 46 N 15 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 45 45 N 15 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 44 44 N 15 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 44 44 NE 15 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 43 43 NE 15 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 44 44 NE 15 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 44 44 NE 15 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 48 48 NE 15 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 55 56 NE 15 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 62 64 NE 14 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 67 69 NE 14 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 70 72 NE 14 2267 2770 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 72 74 N 12 2840 2770 0 Blue 1
2 PM Sat 72 73 N 12 2616 2770 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 71 71 N 12 1915 2770 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 68 68 NW 13 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 64 64 NW 13 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 59 59 NW 13 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 56 56 N 8 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 53 53 N 8 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 50 50 N 8 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 48 48 N 12 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 47 47 N 12 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 47 47 N 12 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 46 46 N 10 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 45 45 N 10 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 44 44 N 10 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 44 44 NE 12 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 43 43 NE 12 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 44 44 NE 12 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 44 44 NE 13 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 48 48 NE 13 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 56 57 NE 13 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 63 65 E 13 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 68 70 E 13 1560 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 71 73 E 13 2616 2770 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 72 74 W 10 2840 2770 0 Blue 1
2 PM Sun 73 74 W 10 2840 2770 0 Blue 1
3 PM Sun 72 72 W 10 2267 2770 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 69 69 W 10 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 64 64 W 10 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 60 60 W 10 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 56 56 N 8 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 53 53 N 8 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 50 50 N 8 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 48 48 N 9 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 46 46 N 9 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 46 46 N 9 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 45 45 N 9 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 44 44 N 9 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 43 43 N 9 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 43 43 N 9 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 42 42 N 9 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 43 43 N 9 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 43 43 NE 10 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 47 47 NE 10 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 54 55 NE 10 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 61 62 NE 9 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 66 68 NE 9 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 69 71 NE 9 1915 2770 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 71 73 N 13 2616 2770 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 71 72 N 13 2267 2770 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 70 70 N 13 1560 2770 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 68 68 NW 10 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 63 63 NW 10 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 59 59 NW 10 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 56 56 N 9 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 53 53 N 9 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 51 51 N 9 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 49 49 N 9 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 47 47 N 9 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 48 48 N 9 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 47 47 NE 9 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 46 46 NE 9 1398 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 45 45 NE 9 1398 2770 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]