NEWS:

Feb 16, 2021
- Problems getting data from National Weather Service began on Feb 11 impacting operation of the Soaring Predictor software.
The service seems to be working again at about 75% as of this morning, Feb 16.


Backup data is being sourced from WeatherAPI.com however, their free service is limited to 3 days. If you see a three day forecast for your favorite site, thank the WeatherAPI folks. The full 5-day forecasts are receiving input data from the National Weather service (thank them too :-).

RASP and Windgrams should not be impacted


See the southern California RASP Model The detail grid covers the San Diego sites, but the 4km grid covers most of southern California.

Instructional video on reading the RASP Model


NEW!
Check out the WINDGRAMS Windgrams are available for most Santa Barbara sites from the more accurate RASP data


Sounding

Station:

KVBG (alt)

Date/Time:

24 JUL 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast
Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon
Site
Name
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Bates Beach WSW 10 0 WSW 14 682 WSW 10 294 WSW 9 0 WSW 8 0 WSW 6 0
Pine Mountain SW 11 9215 SW 17 9421 W 17 7424 WSW 12 3118 WSW 11 1725 SW 10 3118
Eliminator Skyport WSW 10 1898 SW 11 2267 WNW 12 2611 N 9 712 WSW 6 21 WSW 5 252
Ojai SSW 16 10579 SSW 19 10579 SW 10 4487 SSW 10 1279 SSW 10 0 SSW 9 576
Dunlap SW 5 3971 W 6 5336 WSW 6 3230 WSW 5 0 WSW 5 0 WSW 5 315
Calabasas SW 8 4652 W 10 4320 WSW 10 3262 WSW 10 1452 SW 10 524 WSW 10 745
Saddle Peak SW 8 2305 W 9 1871 SW 9 867 SW 9 0 SW 9 0 SW 9 0
Garlock W 14 10865 W 17 11064 W 18 10272 WSW 18 8052 SW 14 7533 SW 14 7533
Blackhawk WSW 12 8637 WSW 16 9698 SW 20 9698 WSW 17 8637 WSW 11 7232 WSW 9 8391
La Cumbre Peak WSW 10 3603 SW 11 4342 W 13 5704 W 11 1955 WSW 10 403 WSW 8 849
Slick Rock WSW 5 8786 W 6 9752 W 6 8786 W 6 3927 W 5 3927 W 5 5237
Horseshoe SW 10 5499 W 12 7230 SW 16 7650 WSW 14 7230 SSE 17 5499 SSE 18 7230
Malibu - Castro Peak WSW 10 944 WSW 9 944 W 9 0 WSW 9 0 WSW 10 0 W 10 0
Cayucos W 10 535 W 11 322 W 11 245 W 12 91 W 10 3 W 10 168

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]