Detailed Predictions for: Slick Rock
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 36.184800, -118.727000, 5075
LZ Altitude (f): 1140
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 5 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Tue 45 45 ENE 6 13 5075 5075 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 45 45 ENE 6 13 5075 5075 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 45 45 ENE 6 13 5075 5075 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 44 44 ENE 6 13 5075 5075 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 44 44 ENE 6 13 5075 5075 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 44 44 ENE 6 14 5075 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 44 44 ENE 6 14 5075 5075 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 39 39 SE 4 14 5075 5075 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 44 44 ENE 6 14 5075 5075 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 44 45 ENE 4 10 5075 5075 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 46 47 ESE 1 1 5075 5075 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 59 61 SSW 2 3 7302 5867 792 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 63 65 SW 4 5 9628 7719 2644 Blue 2
1 PM Tue 64 66 SW 4 5 10059 8182 3107 Blue 3
2 PM Tue 64 65 SW 5 5 9628 7719 2644 Blue 2
3 PM Tue 64 64 SW 4 5 8960 7270 2195 Blue 1
4 PM Tue 63 63 WSW 4 4 8254 6812 1737 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 59 59 WSW 1 2 6364 5075 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 55 55 ENE 3 7 5075 5075 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 55 55 ENE 5 11 5075 5075 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 51 51 ENE 5 12 5075 5075 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 50 50 ENE 6 13 5075 5075 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 48 48 ENE 6 13 5075 5075 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 47 47 ENE 6 13 5075 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 42 42 ENE 6 13 5075 5075 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 42 42 ENE 6 12 5075 5075 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 45 45 ENE 6 12 5075 5075 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 43 43 ENE 6 12 5075 5075 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 43 43 ENE 5 11 5075 5075 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 46 46 NE 5 11 5075 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 42 42 NE 5 12 5075 5075 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 42 42 NE 5 11 5075 5075 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 45 45 NE 5 10 5075 5075 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 46 47 NE 2 6 5075 5075 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 58 59 WSW 3 3 6364 5075 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 54 56 W 7 8 5075 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 60 62 W 7 8 7757 6345 1270 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 60 62 W 8 9 7757 6345 1270 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 57 58 W 8 9 5879 5075 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 58 58 W 8 9 5879 5075 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 56 56 W 7 9 5075 5075 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 53 53 W 5 7 5075 5075 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 39 39 NW 3 6 5075 5075 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 39 39 N 3 7 5075 5075 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 40 40 N 3 6 5075 5075 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 38 38 N 2 5 5075 5075 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 37 37 NNW 3 6 5075 5075 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 38 38 NNW 2 6 5075 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 35 35 NNW 2 5 5075 5075 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 34 34 N 2 5 5075 5075 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 36 36 N 2 6 5075 5075 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 33 33 NNW 2 6 5075 5075 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 32 32 N 3 6 5075 5075 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 37 37 N 3 7 5075 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 31 31 NNW 3 7 5075 5075 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 31 31 N 3 7 5075 5075 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 36 36 N 3 6 5075 5075 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 40 41 NW 2 2 5075 5075 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 45 46 W 4 4 5075 5075 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 45 47 W 5 6 5075 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 48 50 W 6 7 5075 5075 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 47 49 W 6 7 5075 5075 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 47 48 W 6 7 5075 5075 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 46 46 W 5 6 5075 5075 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 44 44 W 5 6 5075 5075 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 43 43 W 4 5 5075 5075 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 37 37 NW 3 5 5075 5075 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 37 37 NNW 3 5 5075 5075 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 34 34 NW 4 6 5075 5075 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 36 36 NNW 4 6 5075 5075 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 35 35 NNW 3 5 5075 5075 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 33 33 NNW 3 6 5075 5075 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]