Detailed Predictions for: Slick Rock
Launch Altitude (f): 5075
LZ Altitude (f): 1140
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

2 DEC 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 50 50 NE 8 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 49 49 NE 7 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 55 55 NE 7 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 46 46 NE 8 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 52 52 E 7 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 61 62 E 6 2859 5075 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 60 61 E 2 2632 5075 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 63 65 S 1 3536 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 64 66 SW 2 3761 5075 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 65 67 SW 3 3985 5075 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 65 66 SW 3 3761 5075 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 64 64 SW 2 3311 5075 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 57 57 E 1 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 49 49 E 6 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 46 46 NE 8 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 47 47 NE 7 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 47 47 E 7 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 48 48 E 5 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 46 46 E 2 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 46 46 NE 8 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 44 44 E 8 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 45 45 NE 6 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 46 46 E 7 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 47 47 NE 5 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 46 46 E 2 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 44 44 E 2 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 45 45 NE 5 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 43 43 E 5 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 49 49 E 5 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 58 59 E 2 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 56 57 W 1 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 59 61 W 1 2632 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 60 62 W 1 2859 5075 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 61 63 W 5 3086 5075 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 61 62 W 5 2859 5075 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 61 61 W 5 2632 5075 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 55 55 W 2 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 48 48 W 2 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 47 47 W 2 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 47 47 E 5 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 47 47 E 5 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 48 48 E 5 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 46 46 E 5 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 47 47 E 5 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 45 45 E 5 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 45 45 E 6 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 46 46 E 6 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 47 47 E 6 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 47 47 NE 6 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 45 45 NE 6 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 46 46 NE 6 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 44 44 E 6 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 50 50 E 6 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 59 60 E 6 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 58 59 S 3 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 61 63 S 3 3086 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 62 64 S 3 3311 5075 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 63 65 W 2 3536 5075 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 63 64 W 2 3311 5075 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 63 63 W 2 3086 5075 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 56 56 NE 2 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 50 50 NE 2 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 48 48 NE 2 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 48 48 E 6 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 49 49 E 6 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 49 49 E 6 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 48 48 NE 5 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 48 48 NE 5 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 46 46 NE 5 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 46 46 E 7 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 47 47 E 7 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 48 48 E 7 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 48 48 E 6 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 46 46 E 6 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 47 47 E 6 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 45 45 E 6 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 51 51 E 6 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 60 61 E 6 2632 5075 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 59 60 SW 2 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 62 64 SW 2 3311 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 63 65 SW 2 3536 5075 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 64 66 SW 2 3761 5075 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 64 65 SW 2 3536 5075 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 63 63 SW 2 3086 5075 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 57 57 NW 1 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 49 49 NW 1 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 47 47 NW 1 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 48 48 NW 1 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 48 48 NW 1 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 49 49 NW 1 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 47 47 NE 2 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 47 47 NE 2 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 45 45 NE 2 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 45 45 NE 2 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 46 46 NE 2 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 47 47 NE 2 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 47 47 NE 3 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 45 45 NE 3 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 46 46 NE 3 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 44 44 NE 3 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 50 50 NE 3 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 59 59 NE 3 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 57 58 W 2 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 60 62 W 2 2859 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 61 63 W 2 3086 5075 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 62 64 W 2 3311 5075 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 62 63 W 2 3086 5075 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 61 61 W 2 2632 5075 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 55 55 N 3 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 48 48 N 3 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 46 46 N 3 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 47 47 N 3 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 47 47 N 3 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 47 47 N 3 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 46 46 E 2 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 46 46 E 2 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 44 44 E 2 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 44 44 E 2 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 45 45 E 2 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 46 46 E 2 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 46 46 NE 5 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 44 44 NE 5 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 45 45 NE 5 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 43 43 NE 5 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 49 49 NE 5 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 58 58 NE 5 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 56 57 SE 1 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 59 60 SE 1 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 60 61 SE 1 2632 5075 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 61 62 SE 1 2859 5075 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 61 62 SE 1 2859 5075 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 61 61 SE 1 2632 5075 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 55 55 NE 5 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 48 48 NE 5 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 47 47 NE 5 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 47 47 NE 5 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 47 47 NE 5 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 48 48 NE 5 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 46 46 E 5 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 47 47 E 5 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 45 45 E 5 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 45 45 E 5 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 46 46 E 5 2625 5075 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 47 47 E 5 2625 5075 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]