Detailed Predictions for: Slick Rock
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 36.184800, -118.727000, 5075
LZ Altitude (f): 1140
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

2 AUG 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Mon 72 72 SE 4 6 3761 5075 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 72 72 ESE 4 6 3761 5075 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 72 72 E 4 6 3761 5075 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 71 71 ESE 1 2 3568 5075 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 70 70 S 2 3 3374 5075 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 70 70 SE 1 2 3374 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 69 69 SE 2 3 3180 5075 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 71 71 SSE 1 2 3568 5075 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 75 76 W 1 2 4531 5075 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 76 78 W 4 6 5785 5075 0 Blue 2
10 AM Mon 78 83 W 5 9 8717 6864 1789 Blue 7
11 AM Mon 81 87 W 6 10 11190 10039 4964 Blue 11
12 Noon Mon 83 91 W 6 10 12527 11399 6324 Blue 15
1 PM Mon 85 93 W 8 12 13221 12087 7012 Blue 17
2 PM Mon 87 95 W 9 13 14638 12782 7707 Blue 19
3 PM Mon 87 94 W 8 12 13704 12437 7362 Blue 18
4 PM Mon 88 93 W 9 13 13221 12087 7012 Blue 17
5 PM Mon 87 90 W 8 12 12174 11132 6057 Blue 14
6 PM Mon 86 87 W 8 12 11190 10039 4964 Blue 11
7 PM Mon 83 83 W 6 10 8717 6864 1789 Blue 7
8 PM Mon 80 80 WSW 3 5 6905 5183 108 Blue 4
9 PM Mon 78 78 SE 5 9 5785 5075 0 Blue 2
10 PM Mon 76 76 SE 4 6 4531 5075 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 75 75 ESE 3 5 4339 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 74 74 ESE 4 6 4147 5075 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 74 74 ESE 2 3 4147 5075 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 73 73 ENE 2 3 3954 5075 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 73 73 E 2 3 3954 5075 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 72 72 ENE 1 2 3761 5075 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 72 72 ESE 2 3 3761 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 71 71 SSE 1 2 3568 5075 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 73 73 SSE 2 3 3954 5075 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 77 78 SSW 2 3 5785 5075 0 Blue 2
9 AM Tue 78 80 W 4 6 6905 5183 108 Blue 4
10 AM Tue 80 84 W 5 9 10266 7392 2317 Blue 8
11 AM Tue 83 89 W 6 10 11817 10864 5789 Blue 13
12 Noon Tue 85 93 W 6 10 13221 12087 7012 Blue 17
1 PM Tue 87 95 W 8 12 14638 12782 7707 Blue 19
2 PM Tue 89 97 W 8 12 16327 13468 8393 Blue 21
3 PM Tue 89 96 W 8 12 15522 13124 8049 Blue 20
4 PM Tue 90 95 W 8 12 14638 12782 7707 Blue 19
5 PM Tue 89 92 W 6 10 12876 11733 6658 Blue 16
6 PM Tue 88 89 W 6 10 11817 10864 5789 Blue 13
7 PM Tue 85 85 W 5 9 10647 7905 2830 Blue 9
8 PM Tue 82 82 SW 2 3 7960 6322 1247 Blue 6
9 PM Tue 80 80 SSE 3 5 6905 5183 108 Blue 4
10 PM Tue 78 78 SE 2 3 5785 5075 0 Blue 2
11 PM Tue 76 76 ESE 3 5 4531 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 75 75 ESE 3 5 4339 5075 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 75 75 ESE 3 5 4339 5075 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 74 74 ENE 2 4 4147 5075 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 74 74 ENE 2 4 4147 5075 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 73 73 ENE 2 4 3954 5075 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 73 73 ENE 2 4 3954 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 72 72 ENE 2 4 3761 5075 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 74 74 ENE 2 4 4147 5075 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 77 78 SSE 2 4 5785 5075 0 Blue 2
9 AM Wed 78 80 SSE 2 4 6905 5183 108 Blue 4
10 AM Wed 80 84 SSE 2 4 10266 7392 2317 Blue 8
11 AM Wed 82 88 SW 6 9 11459 10594 5519 Blue 12
12 Noon Wed 84 92 SW 6 9 12876 11733 6658 Blue 16
1 PM Wed 86 94 SW 6 9 13704 12437 7362 Blue 18
2 PM Wed 87 95 WSW 8 11 14638 12782 7707 Blue 19
3 PM Wed 87 94 WSW 8 11 13704 12437 7362 Blue 18
4 PM Wed 88 93 WSW 8 11 13221 12087 7012 Blue 17
5 PM Wed 87 90 W 8 10 12174 11132 6057 Blue 14
6 PM Wed 85 86 W 8 10 10919 8476 3401 Blue 10
7 PM Wed 83 83 W 8 10 8717 6864 1789 Blue 7
8 PM Wed 79 79 WNW 4 5 6354 5075 0 Blue 3
9 PM Wed 77 77 WNW 4 5 5197 5075 0 Blue 1
10 PM Wed 74 74 WNW 4 5 4147 5075 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 73 73 NNE 4 4 3954 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 71 71 NNE 4 4 3568 5075 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 71 71 NNE 4 4 3568 5075 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 71 71 NNE 2 4 3568 5075 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 70 70 NNE 2 4 3374 5075 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 70 70 NNE 2 4 3374 5075 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 69 69 NE 2 3 3180 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 68 68 NE 2 3 2986 5075 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 70 70 NE 2 3 3374 5075 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 73 74 W 2 5 4147 5075 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 74 76 W 2 5 4531 5075 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 76 80 W 2 5 6905 5183 108 Blue 4
11 AM Thu 78 84 W 5 10 10266 7392 2317 Blue 8
12 Noon Thu 80 88 W 5 10 11459 10594 5519 Blue 12
1 PM Thu 82 90 W 5 10 12174 11132 6057 Blue 14
2 PM Thu 83 91 W 6 11 12527 11399 6324 Blue 15
3 PM Thu 83 90 W 6 11 12174 11132 6057 Blue 14
4 PM Thu 84 89 W 6 11 11817 10864 5789 Blue 13
5 PM Thu 83 86 W 6 11 10919 8476 3401 Blue 10
6 PM Thu 82 83 W 6 11 8717 6864 1789 Blue 7
7 PM Thu 79 79 W 6 11 6354 5075 0 Blue 3
8 PM Thu 76 76 NW 3 8 4531 5075 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 74 74 NW 3 8 4147 5075 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 72 72 NW 3 8 3761 5075 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 70 70 NNE 3 5 3374 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 69 69 NNE 3 5 3180 5075 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 69 69 NNE 3 5 3180 5075 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 68 68 NE 2 4 2986 5075 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 68 68 NE 2 4 2986 5075 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 67 67 NE 2 4 2890 5075 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 67 67 ENE 2 4 2890 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 66 66 ENE 2 4 2890 5075 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 68 68 ENE 2 4 2986 5075 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 72 73 E 2 4 3954 5075 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 73 75 E 2 4 4339 5075 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 75 79 E 2 4 6354 5075 0 Blue 3
11 AM Fri 78 84 WSW 5 9 10266 7392 2317 Blue 8
12 Noon Fri 80 88 WSW 5 9 11459 10594 5519 Blue 12
1 PM Fri 82 90 WSW 5 9 12174 11132 6057 Blue 14
2 PM Fri 84 92 WSW 6 11 12876 11733 6658 Blue 16
3 PM Fri 84 91 WSW 6 11 12527 11399 6324 Blue 15
4 PM Fri 85 90 WSW 6 11 12174 11132 6057 Blue 14
5 PM Fri 84 87 W 5 10 11190 10039 4964 Blue 11
6 PM Fri 83 84 W 5 10 10266 7392 2317 Blue 8
7 PM Fri 80 80 W 5 10 6905 5183 108 Blue 4
8 PM Fri 77 77 NW 3 6 5197 5075 0 Blue 1
9 PM Fri 75 75 NW 3 6 4339 5075 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 73 73 NW 3 6 3954 5075 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 71 71 ENE 3 4 3568 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 70 70 ENE 3 4 3374 5075 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 70 70 ENE 3 4 3374 5075 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 69 69 ENE 3 5 3180 5075 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 69 69 ENE 3 5 3180 5075 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 68 68 ENE 3 5 2986 5075 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 68 68 E 2 5 2986 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 67 67 E 2 5 2890 5075 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 69 69 E 2 5 3180 5075 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 73 74 S 2 5 4147 5075 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 74 76 S 2 5 4531 5075 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 76 80 S 2 5 6905 5183 108 Blue 4
11 AM Sat 79 85 WSW 5 10 10647 7905 2830 Blue 9
12 Noon Sat 81 89 WSW 5 10 11817 10864 5789 Blue 13
1 PM Sat 83 91 WSW 5 10 12527 11399 6324 Blue 15
2 PM Sat 85 93 W 6 11 13221 12087 7012 Blue 17
3 PM Sat 85 92 W 6 11 12876 11733 6658 Blue 16
4 PM Sat 86 91 W 6 11 12527 11399 6324 Blue 15
5 PM Sat 85 88 W 6 11 11459 10594 5519 Blue 12
6 PM Sat 83 84 W 6 11 10266 7392 2317 Blue 8
7 PM Sat 81 81 W 6 11 7440 5762 687 Blue 5
8 PM Sat 77 77 WNW 3 9 5197 5075 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sat 75 75 WNW 3 9 4339 5075 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 73 73 WNW 3 9 3954 5075 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]