Detailed Predictions for: Slick Rock
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 36.184800, -118.727000, 5075
LZ Altitude (f): 1140
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

24 JUL 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 81 81 ENE 2 3 3917 5075 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 80 80 E 1 4 3683 5075 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 80 80 E 2 5 3683 5075 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 80 80 E 2 4 3683 5075 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 78 78 E 2 4 3212 5075 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 77 77 E 2 4 2975 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 77 77 ENE 2 4 2975 5075 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 75 75 E 2 4 2746 5075 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 77 78 WSW 2 4 3212 5075 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 83 85 WSW 2 4 5569 5075 0 Blue 4
10 AM Wed 88 92 WSW 3 5 9795 7547 2472 Blue 11
11 AM Wed 90 93 WSW 5 8 10442 8296 3221 Blue 12
12 Noon Wed 94 98 WSW 5 9 14037 12355 7280 White 17
1 PM Wed 95 99 WSW 5 9 14244 12871 7796 White 18
2 PM Wed 96 100 W 5 10 14449 13373 8298 White 19
3 PM Wed 98 101 W 5 10 14653 13861 8786 White 20
4 PM Wed 98 100 W 5 10 14449 13373 8298 White 19
5 PM Wed 98 101 WNW 5 10 14653 13861 8786 White 20
6 PM Wed 97 98 WNW 5 9 14037 12355 7280 White 17
7 PM Wed 95 95 WNW 4 9 12501 9672 4597 Blue 14
8 PM Wed 90 90 WNW 3 8 8399 6243 1168 Blue 9
9 PM Wed 83 83 E 2 5 4790 5075 0 Blue 2
10 PM Wed 81 81 ESE 2 4 3917 5075 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 79 79 SE 2 4 3448 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 79 79 E 2 4 3448 5075 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 78 78 E 2 3 3212 5075 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 77 77 E 1 3 2975 5075 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 76 76 E 1 3 2746 5075 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 76 76 E 1 3 2746 5075 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 75 75 ENE 1 3 2746 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 74 74 E 1 3 2746 5075 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 74 74 E 1 3 2746 5075 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 76 77 WSW 2 3 2975 5075 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 81 84 W 2 4 5214 5075 0 Blue 3
10 AM Thu 86 90 WSW 3 5 8399 6243 1168 Blue 9
11 AM Thu 89 95 WSW 5 10 12501 9672 4597 Blue 14
12 Noon Thu 93 101 WSW 5 10 14653 13861 8786 White 20
1 PM Thu 95 103 WSW 5 10 15063 14827 9752 White 22
2 PM Thu 95 103 W 6 11 15063 14827 9752 White 22
3 PM Thu 96 103 W 6 11 15063 14827 9752 White 22
4 PM Thu 97 102 W 6 11 14858 14442 9367 White 21
5 PM Thu 97 100 W 6 12 14449 13373 8298 White 19
6 PM Thu 95 96 W 6 12 13022 10312 5237 Blue 15
7 PM Thu 92 92 W 6 12 9795 7547 2472 Blue 11
8 PM Thu 88 88 NW 5 10 6825 5550 475 Blue 7
9 PM Thu 84 84 NW 5 10 5214 5075 0 Blue 3
10 PM Thu 80 80 NW 5 10 3683 5075 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 77 77 NE 2 4 2975 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 75 75 NE 2 4 2746 5075 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 75 75 NE 2 4 2746 5075 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 74 74 ENE 2 3 2746 5075 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 73 73 ENE 2 3 2746 5075 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 72 72 ENE 2 3 2746 5075 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 71 71 ENE 2 3 2746 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 71 71 ENE 2 3 2746 5075 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 71 71 ENE 2 3 2746 5075 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 73 74 WSW 2 4 2746 5075 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 77 80 WSW 2 4 3683 5075 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 82 87 WSW 2 4 6269 5199 124 Blue 6
11 AM Fri 86 92 WSW 5 9 9795 7547 2472 Blue 11
12 Noon Fri 89 97 WSW 5 9 13528 11821 6746 Blue 16
1 PM Fri 91 99 WSW 5 9 14244 12871 7796 White 18
2 PM Fri 92 100 W 6 11 14449 13373 8298 White 19
3 PM Fri 94 101 W 6 11 14653 13861 8786 White 20
4 PM Fri 95 100 W 6 11 14449 13373 8298 White 19
5 PM Fri 94 97 W 6 12 13528 11821 6746 Blue 16
6 PM Fri 91 92 W 6 12 9795 7547 2472 Blue 11
7 PM Fri 88 88 W 6 12 6825 5550 475 Blue 7
8 PM Fri 83 83 W 5 10 4790 5075 0 Blue 2
9 PM Fri 78 78 W 5 10 3212 5075 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 74 74 W 5 10 2746 5075 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 70 70 ENE 2 4 2746 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 68 68 ENE 2 4 2746 5075 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 67 67 ENE 2 4 2746 5075 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 66 66 ENE 1 3 2746 5075 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 65 65 ENE 1 3 2746 5075 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 64 64 ENE 1 3 2746 5075 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 63 63 ENE 1 3 2746 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 63 63 ENE 1 3 2746 5075 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 63 63 ENE 1 3 2746 5075 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 65 66 WSW 2 4 2746 5075 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 69 72 WSW 2 4 2746 5075 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 74 79 WSW 2 4 3448 5075 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 78 85 WSW 5 9 5569 5075 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Sat 81 89 WSW 5 9 7639 5898 823 Blue 8
1 PM Sat 83 91 WSW 5 9 9116 6748 1673 Blue 10
2 PM Sat 85 93 W 6 10 10442 8296 3221 Blue 12
3 PM Sat 87 94 W 6 10 11962 9002 3927 Blue 13
4 PM Sat 87 92 W 6 10 9795 7547 2472 Blue 11
5 PM Sat 87 90 W 4 11 8399 6243 1168 Blue 9
6 PM Sat 85 86 W 4 11 5921 5075 0 Blue 5
7 PM Sat 82 82 W 4 11 4335 5075 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sat 78 78 W 4 11 3212 5075 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 74 74 W 4 11 2746 5075 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 71 71 W 4 11 2746 5075 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 68 68 ENE 2 4 2746 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 66 66 ENE 2 4 2746 5075 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 66 66 ENE 2 4 2746 5075 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 65 65 ENE 2 4 2746 5075 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 64 64 ENE 2 4 2746 5075 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 63 63 ENE 2 4 2746 5075 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 62 62 SSW 2 3 2746 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 61 61 SSW 2 3 2746 5075 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 61 61 SSW 2 3 2746 5075 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 63 64 SSW 2 3 2746 5075 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 67 70 SSW 2 3 2746 5075 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 72 77 SSW 2 3 2975 5075 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 77 84 W 5 10 5214 5075 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Sun 80 88 W 5 10 6825 5550 475 Blue 7
1 PM Sun 83 91 W 5 10 9116 6748 1673 Blue 10
2 PM Sun 85 93 W 5 10 10442 8296 3221 Blue 12
3 PM Sun 87 94 W 5 10 11962 9002 3927 Blue 13
4 PM Sun 87 92 W 5 10 9795 7547 2472 Blue 11
5 PM Sun 87 90 W 4 9 8399 6243 1168 Blue 9
6 PM Sun 86 87 W 4 9 6269 5199 124 Blue 6
7 PM Sun 83 83 W 4 9 4790 5075 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sun 80 80 W 4 9 3683 5075 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 76 76 W 4 9 2746 5075 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 72 72 W 4 9 2746 5075 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 68 68 ENE 2 4 2746 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 66 66 ENE 2 4 2746 5075 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 65 65 ENE 2 4 2746 5075 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 65 65 ENE 2 4 2746 5075 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 64 64 ENE 2 4 2746 5075 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 63 63 ENE 2 4 2746 5075 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 63 63 SSE 2 3 2746 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 63 63 SSE 2 3 2746 5075 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 63 63 SSE 2 3 2746 5075 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 65 66 SSE 2 3 2746 5075 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 69 72 SSE 2 3 2746 5075 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 74 79 SSE 2 3 3448 5075 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 79 85 W 5 10 5569 5075 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Mon 82 90 W 5 10 8399 6243 1168 Blue 9
1 PM Mon 85 93 W 5 10 10442 8296 3221 Blue 12
2 PM Mon 87 95 W 5 10 12501 9672 4597 Blue 14
3 PM Mon 89 96 W 5 10 13022 10312 5237 Blue 15
4 PM Mon 90 95 W 5 10 12501 9672 4597 Blue 14
5 PM Mon 89 92 W 4 9 9795 7547 2472 Blue 11
6 PM Mon 87 88 W 4 9 6825 5550 475 Blue 7
7 PM Mon 84 84 W 4 9 5214 5075 0 Blue 3
8 PM Mon 80 80 W 4 9 3683 5075 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 76 76 W 4 9 2746 5075 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 73 73 W 4 9 2746 5075 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]