Detailed Predictions for: Slick Rock
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 36.184800, -118.727000, 5075
LZ Altitude (f): 1140
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

28 MAR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Thu 47 47 SSW 0 4 4852 5075 0 Blue 4
1 AM Thu 46 46 S 2 4 4710 5075 0 Blue 3
2 AM Thu 45 45 SSW 2 4 4547 5075 0 White 2
3 AM Thu 45 45 SW 2 4 4547 5075 0 White 2
4 AM Thu 45 45 SW 2 3 4547 5075 0 White 2
5 AM Thu 44 44 WSW 2 4 4320 5075 0 White 1
6 AM Thu 43 43 SSE 2 3 4095 5075 0 White 0
7 AM Thu 43 43 S 2 3 4095 5075 0 White 0
8 AM Thu 43 43 SSW 2 4 4095 5075 0 White 0
9 AM Thu 41 41 WSW 3 4 3285 5075 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 45 45 WSW 3 5 4547 5075 0 White 2
11 AM Thu 48 49 W 5 6 5189 5075 0 Blue 6
12 Noon Thu 49 50 W 4 6 5499 5075 0 Blue 7
1 PM Thu 50 52 W 5 8 6098 5175 100 White 9
2 PM Thu 52 54 W 5 9 6537 5787 712 White 11
3 PM Thu 53 54 W 5 10 6537 5787 712 White 11
4 PM Thu 53 54 W 6 10 6537 5787 712 White 11
5 PM Thu 54 54 W 5 8 6537 5787 712 White 11
6 PM Thu 53 53 W 5 8 6318 5482 407 White 10
7 PM Thu 50 50 W 3 5 5499 5075 0 Blue 7
8 PM Thu 47 47 WNW 3 5 4852 5075 0 Blue 4
9 PM Thu 44 44 WSW 2 4 4320 5075 0 White 1
10 PM Thu 43 43 E 3 4 4095 5075 0 White 0
11 PM Thu 42 42 SSW 3 4 3821 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 42 42 ESE 3 4 3821 5075 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 41 41 ESE 3 4 3285 5075 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 40 40 E 2 4 2732 5075 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 40 40 E 2 4 2732 5075 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 39 39 E 2 4 2648 5075 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 39 39 E 2 3 2648 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 39 39 ESE 2 2 2648 5075 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 40 40 E 2 3 2732 5075 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 39 39 E 2 3 2648 5075 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 38 38 WSW 2 3 2648 5075 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 43 43 WSW 3 5 4095 5075 0 White 0
11 AM Fri 46 46 WSW 5 9 4710 5075 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Fri 48 48 WSW 5 9 4982 5075 0 Blue 5
1 PM Fri 49 49 WSW 5 9 5189 5075 0 Blue 6
2 PM Fri 49 49 WSW 5 10 5189 5075 0 Blue 6
3 PM Fri 50 50 WSW 5 10 5499 5075 0 Blue 7
4 PM Fri 50 50 WSW 5 10 5499 5075 0 Blue 7
5 PM Fri 49 49 E 5 9 5189 5075 0 Blue 6
6 PM Fri 48 48 E 5 9 4982 5075 0 Blue 5
7 PM Fri 46 46 E 5 9 4710 5075 0 Blue 3
8 PM Fri 44 44 E 3 5 4320 5075 0 White 1
9 PM Fri 43 43 E 3 5 4095 5075 0 White 0
10 PM Fri 42 42 E 3 5 3821 5075 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 42 42 ESE 5 8 3821 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 42 42 ESE 5 8 3821 5075 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 43 43 ESE 5 8 4095 5075 0 White 0
2 AM Sat 43 43 SE 5 8 4095 5075 0 White 0
3 AM Sat 42 42 SE 5 8 3821 5075 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 41 41 SE 5 8 3285 5075 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 40 40 SSE 4 5 2732 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 39 39 SSE 4 5 2648 5075 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 39 39 SSE 4 5 2648 5075 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 39 39 SSE 4 5 2648 5075 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 41 41 SSE 4 5 3285 5075 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 43 43 SSE 4 5 4095 5075 0 White 0
11 AM Sat 45 45 S 6 10 4547 5075 0 White 2
12 Noon Sat 47 47 S 6 10 4852 5075 0 Blue 4
1 PM Sat 48 48 S 6 10 4982 5075 0 Blue 5
2 PM Sat 49 49 SW 6 11 5189 5075 0 Blue 6
3 PM Sat 50 50 SW 6 11 5499 5075 0 Blue 7
4 PM Sat 50 50 SW 6 11 5499 5075 0 Blue 7
5 PM Sat 49 49 SW 9 13 5189 5075 0 Blue 6
6 PM Sat 47 47 SW 9 13 4852 5075 0 Blue 4
7 PM Sat 44 44 SW 9 13 4320 5075 0 White 1
8 PM Sat 42 42 SSE 5 9 3821 5075 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 41 41 SSE 5 9 3285 5075 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 40 40 SSE 5 9 2732 5075 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 39 39 E 5 9 2648 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 38 38 E 5 9 2648 5075 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 38 38 E 5 9 2648 5075 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 37 37 E 5 9 2648 5075 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 36 36 E 5 9 2648 5075 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 35 35 E 5 9 2648 5075 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 35 35 ENE 5 8 2648 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 35 35 ENE 5 8 2648 5075 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 35 35 ENE 5 8 2648 5075 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 37 37 ENE 5 8 2648 5075 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 40 40 ENE 5 8 2732 5075 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 44 45 ENE 5 8 4547 5075 0 White 2
11 AM Sun 47 49 W 6 11 5189 5075 0 Blue 6
12 Noon Sun 48 50 W 6 11 5499 5075 0 Blue 7
1 PM Sun 49 51 W 6 11 5807 5075 0 Blue 8
2 PM Sun 49 50 W 8 12 5499 5075 0 Blue 7
3 PM Sun 50 51 W 8 12 5807 5075 0 Blue 8
4 PM Sun 50 50 W 8 12 5499 5075 0 Blue 7
5 PM Sun 50 50 W 8 12 5499 5075 0 Blue 7
6 PM Sun 48 48 W 8 12 4982 5075 0 Blue 5
7 PM Sun 46 46 W 8 12 4710 5075 0 Blue 3
8 PM Sun 44 44 WNW 5 9 4320 5075 0 White 1
9 PM Sun 43 43 WNW 5 9 4095 5075 0 White 0
10 PM Sun 42 42 WNW 5 9 3821 5075 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 41 41 E 5 8 3285 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 41 41 E 5 8 3285 5075 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 40 40 E 5 8 2732 5075 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 40 40 ENE 4 8 2732 5075 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 39 39 ENE 4 8 2648 5075 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 38 38 ENE 4 8 2648 5075 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 37 37 E 5 8 2648 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 37 37 E 5 8 2648 5075 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 37 37 E 5 8 2648 5075 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 39 39 E 5 8 2648 5075 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 42 43 E 5 8 4095 5075 0 White 0
10 AM Mon 46 48 E 5 8 4982 5075 0 Blue 5
11 AM Mon 50 54 WSW 6 10 6537 5787 712 White 11
12 Noon Mon 52 57 WSW 6 10 7192 6688 1613 White 14
1 PM Mon 53 58 WSW 6 10 7409 6983 1908 White 15
2 PM Mon 54 57 W 8 12 7192 6688 1613 White 14
3 PM Mon 55 57 W 8 12 7192 6688 1613 White 14
4 PM Mon 56 57 W 8 12 7192 6688 1613 White 14
5 PM Mon 56 56 W 8 11 6974 6390 1315 White 13
6 PM Mon 54 54 W 8 11 6537 5787 712 White 11
7 PM Mon 52 52 W 8 11 6098 5175 100 White 9
8 PM Mon 49 49 NNE 5 9 5189 5075 0 Blue 6
9 PM Mon 47 47 NNE 5 9 4852 5075 0 Blue 4
10 PM Mon 45 45 NNE 5 9 4547 5075 0 White 2
11 PM Mon 44 44 ENE 5 8 4320 5075 0 White 1
12 Midnight Tue 43 43 ENE 5 8 4095 5075 0 White 0
1 AM Tue 43 43 ENE 5 8 4095 5075 0 White 0
2 AM Tue 42 42 ENE 6 10 3821 5075 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 41 41 ENE 6 10 3285 5075 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 40 40 ENE 6 10 2732 5075 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 40 40 ENE 6 10 2732 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 40 40 ENE 6 10 2732 5075 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 41 41 ENE 6 10 3285 5075 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 43 43 ENE 6 10 4095 5075 0 White 0
9 AM Tue 48 49 ENE 6 10 5189 5075 0 Blue 6
10 AM Tue 53 56 ENE 6 10 6974 6390 1315 White 13
11 AM Tue 58 63 WSW 5 8 8489 8489 3414 White 20
12 Noon Tue 61 67 WSW 5 8 9346 9346 4271 White 24
1 PM Tue 62 68 WSW 5 8 9560 9560 4485 White 25
2 PM Tue 63 68 W 6 11 9560 9560 4485 White 25
3 PM Tue 64 68 W 6 11 9560 9560 4485 White 25
4 PM Tue 65 68 W 6 11 9560 9560 4485 White 25
5 PM Tue 64 65 W 6 11 8918 8918 3843 White 22
6 PM Tue 62 62 W 6 11 8274 8274 3199 White 19
7 PM Tue 58 58 W 6 11 7409 6983 1908 White 15
8 PM Tue 55 55 NNE 5 8 6756 6090 1015 White 12
9 PM Tue 53 53 NNE 5 8 6318 5482 407 White 10
10 PM Tue 51 51 NNE 5 8 5807 5075 0 Blue 8

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]