Detailed Predictions for: Slick Rock
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 36.184800, -118.727000, 5075
LZ Altitude (f): 1140
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time UTC:

 250511/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Sun 67 67 E 2 4 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 66 66 E 2 3 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 64 64 E 2 3 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 64 64 E 2 3 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 63 63 ENE 1 3 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 61 61 SE 1 3 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 62 62 ESE 1 3 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 61 61 S 1 3 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 65 66 WSW 2 4 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 67 70 W 2 5 4062 5075 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 71 76 WSW 4 8 5602 5085 10 Blue 6
11 AM Sun 73 80 WSW 5 9 10184 5761 686 Blue 10
12 Noon Sun 75 83 WSW 5 11 14121 9825 4750 Blue 13
1 PM Sun 77 85 WSW 5 11 14612 13496 8421 Blue 15
2 PM Sun 77 84 W 5 11 14367 11898 6823 Blue 14
3 PM Sun 79 85 W 6 12 14612 13496 8421 Blue 15
4 PM Sun 79 83 W 6 12 14121 9825 4750 Blue 13
5 PM Sun 78 80 W 5 11 10184 5761 686 Blue 10
6 PM Sun 77 77 W 5 11 5771 5254 179 Blue 7
7 PM Sun 72 72 W 4 10 4922 5075 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sun 67 67 W 3 8 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 63 63 E 3 6 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 62 62 E 2 5 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 60 60 ESE 2 4 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 58 58 N 2 4 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 56 56 NW 2 3 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 54 54 NW 1 3 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 52 52 NW 1 3 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 51 51 NNW 1 3 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 50 50 NNE 1 3 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 50 50 NNE 1 3 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 50 50 NNE 1 3 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 53 54 WSW 2 4 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 54 57 WSW 2 4 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 57 61 WSW 2 4 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 60 66 W 6 10 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 62 70 W 6 10 4062 5075 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 63 71 W 6 10 4506 5075 0 Blue 1
2 PM Mon 64 71 W 6 12 4506 5075 0 Blue 1
3 PM Mon 65 70 W 6 12 4062 5075 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 65 69 W 6 12 3623 5075 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 64 66 W 6 12 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 61 61 W 6 12 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 58 58 W 6 12 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 54 54 WNW 5 11 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 52 52 WNW 5 11 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 50 50 WNW 5 11 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 48 48 WNW 3 8 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 47 47 WNW 3 8 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 46 46 WNW 3 8 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 45 45 WNW 2 5 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 44 44 WNW 2 5 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 43 43 WNW 2 5 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 43 43 WNW 2 4 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 43 43 WNW 2 4 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 44 44 WNW 2 4 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 45 46 W 3 6 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 46 48 W 3 6 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 48 51 W 3 6 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 50 53 W 6 11 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 51 55 W 6 11 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 53 57 W 6 11 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 54 58 W 8 13 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 56 59 W 8 13 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 57 59 W 8 13 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 57 58 WNW 6 13 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 55 55 WNW 6 13 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 53 53 WNW 6 13 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 50 50 NW 4 9 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 48 48 NW 4 9 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 47 47 NW 4 9 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 46 46 NNE 2 5 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 45 45 NNE 2 5 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 44 44 NNE 2 5 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 44 44 ENE 2 4 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 43 43 ENE 2 4 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 43 43 ENE 2 4 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 43 43 E 2 4 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 45 45 E 2 4 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 47 47 E 2 4 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 50 51 SW 2 4 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 53 56 SW 2 4 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 57 62 SW 2 4 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 60 67 WSW 4 8 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 62 70 WSW 4 8 4062 5075 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 64 72 WSW 4 8 4922 5075 0 Blue 2
2 PM Wed 65 72 W 6 10 4922 5075 0 Blue 2
3 PM Wed 67 72 W 6 10 4922 5075 0 Blue 2
4 PM Wed 68 72 W 6 10 4922 5075 0 Blue 2
5 PM Wed 67 69 W 5 10 3623 5075 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 64 64 W 5 10 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 60 60 W 5 10 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 56 56 NW 3 6 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 54 54 NW 3 6 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 53 53 NW 3 6 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 53 53 E 2 4 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 52 52 E 2 4 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 52 52 E 2 4 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 51 51 E 2 4 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 50 50 E 2 4 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 50 50 E 2 4 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 50 50 E 2 4 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 51 51 E 2 4 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 53 53 E 2 4 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 56 57 SW 2 4 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 59 62 SW 2 4 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 63 68 SW 2 4 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 66 72 WSW 4 8 4922 5075 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Thu 68 75 WSW 4 8 5432 5075 0 Blue 5
1 PM Thu 70 78 WSW 4 8 6863 5423 348 Blue 8
2 PM Thu 71 77 W 5 10 5771 5254 179 Blue 7
3 PM Thu 72 77 W 5 10 5771 5254 179 Blue 7
4 PM Thu 73 76 W 5 10 5602 5085 10 Blue 6
5 PM Thu 72 74 W 5 10 5262 5075 0 Blue 4
6 PM Thu 69 69 W 5 10 3623 5075 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 66 66 W 5 10 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 62 62 NNW 3 6 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 60 60 NNW 3 6 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 58 58 NNW 3 6 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 57 57 ENE 2 5 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 56 56 ENE 2 5 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 56 56 ENE 2 5 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 55 55 ENE 2 4 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 54 54 ENE 2 4 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 53 53 ENE 2 4 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 53 53 E 2 5 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 54 54 E 2 5 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 56 56 E 2 5 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 59 60 SW 2 4 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 62 64 SW 2 4 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 66 69 SW 2 4 3623 5075 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 69 72 WSW 4 8 4922 5075 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Fri 71 75 WSW 4 8 5432 5075 0 Blue 5
1 PM Fri 72 76 WSW 4 8 5602 5085 10 Blue 6
2 PM Fri 73 75 W 6 10 5432 5075 0 Blue 5
3 PM Fri 74 76 W 6 10 5602 5085 10 Blue 6
4 PM Fri 74 75 W 6 10 5432 5075 0 Blue 5
5 PM Fri 73 73 WNW 5 10 5092 5075 0 Blue 3
6 PM Fri 70 70 WNW 5 10 4062 5075 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 66 66 WNW 5 10 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 63 63 WNW 3 8 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 61 61 WNW 3 8 3423 5075 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 59 59 WNW 3 8 3423 5075 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]