Detailed Predictions for: Slick Rock
Launch Altitude (f): 5075
LZ Altitude (f): 1140
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

19 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 49 49 N 3 2792 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 48 48 N 3 2792 5075 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 47 47 N 5 2792 5075 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 48 48 N 3 2792 5075 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 58 59 SW 3 3641 5075 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 59 61 W 5 4015 5075 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sat 60 63 W 6 4354 5075 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Sat 63 67 W 6 6196 5075 0 Blue 7
1 PM Sat 64 68 W 7 6663 5075 0 Blue 8
2 PM Sat 66 70 W 6 7545 6156 1081 Blue 10
3 PM Sat 65 67 W 6 6196 5075 0 Blue 7
4 PM Sat 65 66 W 6 5658 5075 0 Blue 6
5 PM Sat 62 62 W 6 4185 5075 0 Blue 2
6 PM Sat 57 57 NW 5 3248 5075 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 53 53 NW 5 2792 5075 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 52 52 NW 6 2792 5075 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 51 51 N 6 2792 5075 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 52 52 NW 6 2792 5075 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 51 51 N 6 2792 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 50 50 NW 6 2792 5075 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 51 51 NW 5 2792 5075 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 50 50 NE 3 2792 5075 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 50 50 NE 5 2792 5075 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 50 50 N 3 2792 5075 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 49 49 N 3 2792 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 49 49 E 5 2792 5075 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 48 48 E 5 2792 5075 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 48 48 S 3 2792 5075 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 59 60 S 2 3837 5075 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 60 62 SW 5 4185 5075 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sun 61 64 SW 6 4523 5075 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Sun 63 67 SW 6 6196 5075 0 Blue 7
1 PM Sun 65 69 SW 6 7108 5626 551 Blue 9
2 PM Sun 66 70 W 6 7545 6156 1081 Blue 10
3 PM Sun 66 69 W 6 7108 5626 551 Blue 9
4 PM Sun 65 66 W 6 5658 5075 0 Blue 6
5 PM Sun 63 63 W 3 4354 5075 0 Blue 3
6 PM Sun 60 60 W 3 3837 5075 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 56 56 W 3 3051 5075 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 53 53 NE 3 2792 5075 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 53 53 NE 3 2792 5075 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 53 53 NE 3 2792 5075 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 54 54 E 3 2792 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 54 54 E 3 2792 5075 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 54 54 E 3 2792 5075 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 54 54 NE 3 2792 5075 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 54 54 NE 3 2792 5075 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 54 54 NE 3 2792 5075 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 54 54 E 5 2792 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 53 53 E 5 2792 5075 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 52 52 E 5 2792 5075 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 53 53 E 3 2792 5075 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 57 58 E 3 3445 5075 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 63 65 E 3 4692 5075 0 Blue 5
11 AM Mon 68 71 SW 5 7973 6622 1547 Blue 11
12 Noon Mon 71 75 SW 5 9600 8332 3257 Blue 15
1 PM Mon 73 77 SW 5 9818 9191 4116 Blue 17
2 PM Mon 74 78 W 5 9927 9579 4504 Blue 18
3 PM Mon 74 77 W 5 9818 9191 4116 Blue 17
4 PM Mon 74 75 W 5 9600 8332 3257 Blue 15
5 PM Mon 72 72 W 2 8394 7062 1987 Blue 12
6 PM Mon 69 69 W 2 7108 5626 551 Blue 9
7 PM Mon 64 64 W 2 4523 5075 0 Blue 4
8 PM Mon 61 61 E 5 4015 5075 0 Blue 1
9 PM Mon 60 60 E 5 3837 5075 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 60 60 E 5 3837 5075 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 60 60 E 5 3837 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 60 60 E 5 3837 5075 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 59 59 E 5 3641 5075 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 59 59 NE 6 3641 5075 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 59 59 NE 6 3641 5075 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 59 59 NE 6 3641 5075 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 59 59 NE 6 3641 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 58 58 NE 6 3445 5075 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 57 57 NE 6 3248 5075 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 58 58 E 5 3445 5075 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 62 63 E 5 4354 5075 0 Blue 3
10 AM Tue 68 70 E 5 7545 6156 1081 Blue 10
11 AM Tue 73 76 W 5 9709 8748 3673 Blue 16
12 Noon Tue 76 80 W 5 10146 9797 4722 Blue 20
1 PM Tue 78 82 W 5 10330 10014 4939 Blue 22
2 PM Tue 79 83 W 6 10505 10123 5048 Blue 23
3 PM Tue 79 82 W 6 10330 10014 4939 Blue 22
4 PM Tue 78 79 W 6 10036 9688 4613 Blue 19
5 PM Tue 75 75 W 3 9600 8332 3257 Blue 15
6 PM Tue 71 71 W 3 7973 6622 1547 Blue 11
7 PM Tue 67 67 W 3 6196 5075 0 Blue 7
8 PM Tue 63 63 E 5 4354 5075 0 Blue 3
9 PM Tue 61 61 E 5 4015 5075 0 Blue 1
10 PM Tue 61 61 E 5 4015 5075 0 Blue 1
11 PM Tue 61 61 NE 5 4015 5075 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Wed 61 61 NE 5 4015 5075 0 Blue 1
1 AM Wed 60 60 NE 5 3837 5075 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 60 60 NE 5 3837 5075 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 60 60 NE 5 3837 5075 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 59 59 NE 5 3641 5075 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 59 59 NE 6 3641 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 58 58 NE 6 3445 5075 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 57 57 NE 6 3248 5075 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 58 58 NE 5 3445 5075 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 62 63 NE 5 4354 5075 0 Blue 3
10 AM Wed 68 70 NE 5 7545 6156 1081 Blue 10
11 AM Wed 73 76 W 5 9709 8748 3673 Blue 16
12 Noon Wed 76 80 W 5 10146 9797 4722 Blue 20
1 PM Wed 78 82 W 5 10330 10014 4939 Blue 22
2 PM Wed 78 82 W 5 10330 10014 4939 Blue 22
3 PM Wed 78 81 W 5 10229 9905 4830 Blue 21
4 PM Wed 77 78 W 5 9927 9579 4504 Blue 18
5 PM Wed 75 75 W 2 9600 8332 3257 Blue 15
6 PM Wed 71 71 W 2 7973 6622 1547 Blue 11
7 PM Wed 66 66 W 2 5658 5075 0 Blue 6
8 PM Wed 62 62 NE 5 4185 5075 0 Blue 2
9 PM Wed 61 61 NE 5 4015 5075 0 Blue 1
10 PM Wed 61 61 NE 5 4015 5075 0 Blue 1
11 PM Wed 61 61 E 6 4015 5075 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Thu 60 60 E 6 3837 5075 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 60 60 E 6 3837 5075 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 59 59 E 6 3641 5075 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 59 59 E 6 3641 5075 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 58 58 E 6 3445 5075 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 58 58 NE 6 3445 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 57 57 NE 6 3248 5075 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 56 56 NE 6 3051 5075 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 57 57 E 6 3248 5075 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 61 61 E 6 4015 5075 0 Blue 1
10 AM Thu 67 69 E 6 7108 5626 551 Blue 9
11 AM Thu 72 75 W 6 9600 8332 3257 Blue 15
12 Noon Thu 75 79 W 6 10036 9688 4613 Blue 19
1 PM Thu 77 81 W 6 10229 9905 4830 Blue 21
2 PM Thu 78 81 W 6 10229 9905 4830 Blue 21
3 PM Thu 78 80 W 6 10146 9797 4722 Blue 20
4 PM Thu 77 78 W 6 9927 9579 4504 Blue 18
5 PM Thu 74 74 W 2 9269 7916 2841 Blue 14
6 PM Thu 70 70 W 2 7545 6156 1081 Blue 10
7 PM Thu 66 66 W 2 5658 5075 0 Blue 6
8 PM Thu 62 62 E 6 4185 5075 0 Blue 2
9 PM Thu 61 61 E 6 4015 5075 0 Blue 1
10 PM Thu 60 60 E 6 3837 5075 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 60 60 E 6 3837 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 59 59 E 6 3641 5075 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 59 59 E 6 3641 5075 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 58 58 E 6 3445 5075 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 58 58 E 6 3445 5075 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 57 57 E 6 3248 5075 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]