Detailed Predictions for: Big Black
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.1559626015, -116.809663372, 3900
LZ Altitude (f): 1645
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 5 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Tue 63 63 ENE 17 27 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 61 61 ENE 17 27 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 61 61 ENE 17 27 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 61 61 ENE 17 27 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 59 59 ENE 17 27 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 61 61 ENE 18 28 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 61 61 ENE 18 28 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 61 61 ENE 18 28 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 62 62 ENE 16 25 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 64 65 E 13 23 3224 3900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 66 68 E 12 21 4160 3900 0 Blue 1
11 AM Tue 68 70 E 12 20 6390 3900 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Tue 69 72 E 11 19 7822 4980 1080 Blue 5
1 PM Tue 69 71 ESE 10 18 7559 4139 239 Blue 4
2 PM Tue 70 71 E 10 18 7559 4139 239 Blue 4
3 PM Tue 69 69 E 9 17 5021 3900 0 Blue 2
4 PM Tue 67 67 E 6 12 3630 3900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 66 66 E 10 17 3427 3900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 63 63 E 12 21 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 63 63 ENE 14 24 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 62 62 ENE 14 25 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 62 62 ENE 14 24 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 62 62 ENE 14 23 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 63 63 ENE 13 23 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 62 62 ENE 12 20 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 61 61 ENE 11 19 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 61 61 ENE 10 18 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 61 61 ENE 10 17 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 60 60 ENE 9 16 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 60 60 ENE 9 16 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 59 59 E 9 16 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 58 58 E 8 14 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 60 60 ESE 6 12 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 62 63 S 5 10 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 65 67 SW 4 10 3630 3900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 66 68 WSW 5 12 4160 3900 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Wed 67 69 WSW 8 14 5021 3900 0 Blue 2
1 PM Wed 66 68 WSW 10 17 4160 3900 0 Blue 1
2 PM Wed 65 66 WSW 10 17 3427 3900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 64 64 WSW 8 14 3021 3900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 62 62 WSW 6 12 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 60 60 W 5 10 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 58 58 NNW 3 9 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 57 57 N 3 8 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 56 56 NNE 2 6 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 55 55 NNE 3 8 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 55 55 NE 3 8 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 55 55 NE 3 9 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 55 55 NE 4 9 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 55 55 NE 4 9 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 54 54 NE 4 9 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 54 54 NNE 3 9 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 53 53 NNE 3 8 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 52 52 NE 3 8 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 51 51 ENE 3 9 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 51 51 E 4 9 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 52 52 ESE 5 10 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 53 54 S 6 12 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 55 56 SW 8 14 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 56 58 SW 9 17 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 57 59 WSW 10 18 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 57 59 WSW 11 19 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 56 57 WSW 12 20 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 55 55 WSW 12 20 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 54 54 WSW 11 19 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 53 53 WNW 9 16 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 52 52 N 6 12 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 51 51 NE 4 9 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 51 51 ENE 3 9 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 51 51 E 4 9 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 51 51 ESE 5 10 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 51 51 E 5 11 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 51 51 E 6 12 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 51 51 E 6 13 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 50 50 E 6 12 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 50 50 E 6 12 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 49 49 E 5 11 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 48 48 E 5 11 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 47 47 E 5 11 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 47 47 NE 8 14 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 48 48 NE 8 14 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 50 51 NE 8 14 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 52 54 W 6 13 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 54 56 W 6 13 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 56 58 W 6 13 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 57 59 E 9 16 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 57 58 E 9 16 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 57 57 E 9 16 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 55 55 E 13 21 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 54 54 E 13 21 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 52 52 E 13 21 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 50 50 E 14 24 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 50 50 E 14 24 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 50 50 E 14 24 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 51 51 E 14 25 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 51 51 E 14 25 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 51 51 E 14 25 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 51 51 E 14 24 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 50 50 E 14 24 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 50 50 E 14 24 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 49 49 E 16 25 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 49 49 E 16 25 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 49 49 E 16 25 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 49 49 E 16 25 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 50 50 E 16 25 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 52 53 E 16 25 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 54 56 E 14 24 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 56 58 E 14 24 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 58 60 E 14 24 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 58 60 E 16 25 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 57 58 E 16 25 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 56 56 E 16 25 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 54 54 E 14 24 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 53 53 E 14 24 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 52 52 E 14 24 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 51 51 ENE 13 23 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 51 51 ENE 13 23 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 52 52 ENE 13 23 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 52 52 ENE 14 25 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 53 53 ENE 14 25 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 53 53 ENE 14 25 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 53 53 ENE 16 25 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 53 53 ENE 16 25 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 53 53 ENE 16 25 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 53 53 E 14 24 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 52 52 E 14 24 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 51 51 E 14 24 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 52 52 E 14 24 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 54 54 E 14 24 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 56 57 E 14 24 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 59 60 E 13 23 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 61 63 E 13 23 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 62 64 E 13 23 3021 3900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 63 65 E 11 19 3224 3900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 62 63 E 11 19 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 61 61 E 11 19 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 59 59 E 9 16 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 58 58 E 9 16 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 56 56 E 9 16 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 54 54 E 10 18 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 54 54 E 10 18 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 54 54 E 10 18 2989 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 55 55 ENE 11 19 2989 3900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst