Detailed Predictions for: Big Black
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.1559626015, -116.809663372, 3900
LZ Altitude (f): 1645
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

21 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 73 73 E 8 13 2941 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 73 73 E 8 14 2941 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 73 73 E 9 16 2941 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 74 74 E 10 18 3074 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 74 74 E 12 21 3074 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 74 74 E 14 24 3074 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 76 76 E 16 26 3342 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 75 75 E 14 24 3208 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 77 77 E 12 21 3517 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 81 83 E 11 19 7277 4644 744 Blue 6
10 AM Tue 82 85 E 10 17 8603 6474 2574 Blue 8
11 AM Tue 83 88 SE 8 13 9210 8522 4622 Blue 11
12 Noon Tue 84 90 SSE 8 14 9609 8973 5073 Blue 13
1 PM Tue 84 90 S 9 16 9609 8973 5073 Blue 13
2 PM Tue 85 91 WSW 10 17 9733 9173 5273 Blue 14
3 PM Tue 84 88 WSW 10 18 9210 8522 4622 Blue 11
4 PM Tue 83 86 WSW 9 17 8806 7192 3292 Blue 9
5 PM Tue 81 82 W 8 14 6546 4130 230 Blue 5
6 PM Tue 79 79 WNW 5 11 4137 3900 0 Blue 2
7 PM Tue 76 76 N 4 9 3342 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 75 75 NNE 3 8 3208 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 75 75 NNE 3 9 3208 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 75 75 NNE 4 10 3208 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 75 75 N 5 11 3208 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 76 76 N 5 10 3342 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 76 76 NNE 4 9 3342 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 76 76 NNE 3 8 3342 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 76 76 NNE 3 8 3342 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 76 76 NNE 3 8 3342 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 76 76 NNE 4 9 3342 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 76 76 NNE 4 10 3342 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 76 76 NNE 5 11 3342 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 80 80 NNE 5 11 4772 3900 0 Blue 3
9 AM Wed 84 86 N 6 12 8806 7192 3292 Blue 9
10 AM Wed 84 87 WNW 6 13 9008 7873 3973 Blue 10
11 AM Wed 84 89 W 8 14 9411 8771 4871 Blue 12
12 Noon Wed 85 91 W 10 17 9733 9173 5273 Blue 14
1 PM Wed 87 93 W 11 19 9983 9573 5673 Blue 16
2 PM Wed 88 93 W 13 21 9983 9573 5673 Blue 16
3 PM Wed 87 91 W 13 23 9733 9173 5273 Blue 14
4 PM Wed 87 89 WNW 13 23 9411 8771 4871 Blue 12
5 PM Wed 83 84 WNW 12 20 7968 5710 1810 Blue 7
6 PM Wed 80 80 WNW 10 18 4772 3900 0 Blue 3
7 PM Wed 74 74 NW 8 14 3074 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 71 71 NW 5 11 2673 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 70 70 NW 5 11 2569 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 70 70 NNW 5 11 2569 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 71 71 NNW 6 12 2673 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 74 74 NNW 6 12 3074 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 72 72 NNW 6 13 2807 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 71 71 NW 8 13 2673 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 71 71 NW 8 14 2673 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 72 72 NW 8 14 2807 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 72 72 NW 8 14 2807 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 74 74 NW 8 13 3074 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 73 73 NW 6 12 2941 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 76 76 NW 6 12 3342 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 79 80 WNW 6 12 4772 3900 0 Blue 3
10 AM Thu 79 82 W 8 13 6546 4130 230 Blue 5
11 AM Thu 79 83 W 9 16 7277 4644 744 Blue 6
12 Noon Thu 80 85 W 10 18 8603 6474 2574 Blue 8
1 PM Thu 81 86 W 12 20 8806 7192 3292 Blue 9
2 PM Thu 82 87 W 13 21 9008 7873 3973 Blue 10
3 PM Thu 81 84 W 12 21 7968 5710 1810 Blue 7
4 PM Thu 81 83 W 11 19 7277 4644 744 Blue 6
5 PM Thu 77 78 W 10 17 3828 3900 0 Blue 1
6 PM Thu 75 75 W 8 14 3208 3900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 70 70 WNW 5 11 2569 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 67 67 NW 3 9 2569 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 66 66 NW 3 8 2569 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 66 66 NW 3 8 2569 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 67 67 NW 3 8 2569 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 70 70 W 3 8 2569 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 68 68 S 3 8 2569 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 67 67 SE 3 8 2569 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 67 67 SE 4 9 2569 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 68 68 SE 4 10 2569 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 68 68 SE 4 5 2569 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 70 70 SE 4 5 2569 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 69 69 SE 4 5 2569 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 72 72 ESE 4 4 2807 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 75 76 ESE 4 4 3342 3900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 75 78 ESE 4 4 3828 3900 0 Blue 1
11 AM Fri 75 79 SSW 5 11 4137 3900 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Fri 76 81 SSW 5 11 5767 3900 0 Blue 4
1 PM Fri 77 82 SSW 5 11 6546 4130 230 Blue 5
2 PM Fri 78 82 WSW 9 17 6546 4130 230 Blue 5
3 PM Fri 77 80 WSW 9 17 4772 3900 0 Blue 3
4 PM Fri 77 79 WSW 9 17 4137 3900 0 Blue 2
5 PM Fri 74 75 W 8 13 3208 3900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 73 73 W 8 13 2941 3900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 69 69 W 8 13 2569 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 67 67 N 2 3 2569 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 66 66 N 2 3 2569 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 66 66 N 2 3 2569 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 67 67 NNE 2 3 2569 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 69 69 NNE 2 3 2569 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 68 68 NNE 2 3 2569 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 67 67 NNE 2 3 2569 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 67 67 NNE 2 3 2569 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 67 67 NNE 2 3 2569 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 67 67 E 2 4 2569 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 69 69 E 2 4 2569 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 69 69 E 2 4 2569 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 71 71 NE 3 4 2673 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 74 75 NE 3 4 3208 3900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 74 77 NE 3 4 3517 3900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 74 78 WSW 5 10 3828 3900 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sat 74 79 WSW 5 10 4137 3900 0 Blue 2
1 PM Sat 76 81 WSW 5 10 5767 3900 0 Blue 4
2 PM Sat 76 80 W 9 17 4772 3900 0 Blue 3
3 PM Sat 75 78 W 9 17 3828 3900 0 Blue 1
4 PM Sat 75 77 W 9 17 3517 3900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 72 72 W 9 13 2807 3900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 70 70 W 9 13 2569 3900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 66 66 W 9 13 2569 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 64 64 NNW 3 3 2569 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 63 63 NNW 3 3 2569 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 63 63 NNW 3 3 2569 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 64 64 NNW 3 3 2569 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 66 66 NNW 3 3 2569 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 65 65 NNW 3 3 2569 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 64 64 NNW 3 4 2569 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 64 64 NNW 3 4 2569 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 64 64 NNW 3 4 2569 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 65 65 NNW 3 4 2569 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 66 66 NNW 3 4 2569 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 66 66 NNW 3 4 2569 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 69 69 N 4 4 2569 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 72 73 N 4 4 2941 3900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 72 74 N 4 4 3074 3900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 72 76 W 6 11 3342 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 73 78 W 6 11 3828 3900 0 Blue 1
1 PM Sun 74 79 W 6 11 4137 3900 0 Blue 2
2 PM Sun 75 79 W 10 17 4137 3900 0 Blue 2
3 PM Sun 74 77 W 10 17 3517 3900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 74 76 W 10 17 3342 3900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 71 71 W 9 14 2673 3900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 69 69 W 9 14 2569 3900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 64 64 W 9 14 2569 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 62 62 NNW 3 2 2569 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 61 61 NNW 3 2 2569 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 61 61 NNW 3 2 2569 3900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst