Detailed Predictions for: Big Black
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.1559626015, -116.809663372, 3900
LZ Altitude (f): 1645
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

23 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 67 67 WNW 1 2 3602 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 64 64 W 1 3 3602 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 60 60 WSW 2 4 3602 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 59 59 SW 2 4 3602 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 59 59 SW 1 3 3602 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 59 59 SSW 1 2 3602 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 62 62 SW 1 2 3602 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 66 66 WSW 2 3 3602 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 69 70 W 2 3 3602 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 73 76 W 4 4 3929 3900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 77 82 W 5 6 9725 4908 1008 Blue 4
11 AM Wed 81 88 W 7 8 14863 13157 9257 Blue 10
12 Noon Wed 81 89 W 8 10 15291 13829 9929 Blue 11
1 PM Wed 82 91 W 10 12 16182 14707 10807 Blue 13
2 PM Wed 82 90 W 12 14 15710 14273 10373 Blue 12
3 PM Wed 81 88 W 11 13 14863 13157 9257 Blue 10
4 PM Wed 79 84 W 11 12 12367 8338 4438 Blue 6
5 PM Wed 78 81 W 10 11 8525 4405 505 Blue 3
6 PM Wed 76 77 W 8 10 4169 3900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 74 74 W 6 9 3602 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 72 72 W 4 8 3602 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 70 70 WNW 3 5 3602 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 69 69 NW 2 3 3602 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 67 67 NNW 0 1 3602 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 63 63 NNW 0 1 3602 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 59 59 NNW 1 2 3602 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 55 55 NNW 1 2 3602 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 55 55 SW 1 2 3602 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 54 54 SE 1 2 3602 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 54 54 NNE 1 2 3602 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 58 58 ESE 1 3 3602 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 63 63 S 2 3 3602 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 67 69 W 2 3 3602 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 71 75 W 4 5 3688 3900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 75 81 W 6 7 8525 4405 505 Blue 3
11 AM Thu 79 87 W 8 9 14425 12041 8141 Blue 9
12 Noon Thu 80 89 W 9 11 15291 13829 9929 Blue 11
1 PM Thu 81 90 W 10 12 15710 14273 10373 Blue 12
2 PM Thu 82 90 W 11 13 15710 14273 10373 Blue 12
3 PM Thu 80 87 W 10 12 14425 12041 8141 Blue 9
4 PM Thu 78 83 W 10 11 11018 6874 2974 Blue 5
5 PM Thu 76 79 W 9 10 4926 3929 29 Blue 1
6 PM Thu 74 75 W 7 10 3688 3900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 72 72 W 5 9 3602 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 69 69 WNW 4 8 3602 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 67 67 NW 3 7 3602 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 64 64 NW 2 6 3602 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 62 62 NNW 2 4 3602 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 60 60 NNW 1 3 3602 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 57 57 NNW 1 2 3602 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 55 55 NNW 0 0 3602 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 54 54 NNW 0 1 3602 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 54 54 NNW 0 1 3602 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 54 54 NNW 0 1 3602 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 59 59 NW 1 1 3602 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 64 64 WNW 1 2 3602 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 70 72 WNW 2 2 3602 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 74 78 W 3 4 4409 3900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 79 85 W 5 6 13474 9525 5625 Blue 7
11 AM Fri 83 91 W 6 8 16182 14707 10807 Blue 13
12 Noon Fri 84 93 W 8 10 17207 15548 11648 Blue 15
1 PM Fri 85 94 W 10 12 17696 15966 12066 Blue 16
2 PM Fri 86 94 W 12 14 17696 15966 12066 Blue 16
3 PM Fri 84 91 W 11 13 16182 14707 10807 Blue 13
4 PM Fri 83 88 W 10 11 14863 13157 9257 Blue 10
5 PM Fri 81 84 W 8 10 12367 8338 4438 Blue 6
6 PM Fri 79 80 W 7 9 7036 4167 267 Blue 2
7 PM Fri 76 76 W 5 8 3929 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 74 74 W 3 8 3602 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 72 72 WNW 2 5 3602 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 70 70 NW 1 2 3602 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 68 68 NNW 0 0 3602 3900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst