Detailed Predictions for: Blackhawk
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.344300, -116.820000, 6280
LZ Altitude (f): 3700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

2 AUG 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Mon 76 76 W 14 24 6827 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 75 75 W 14 24 5305 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 74 74 W 12 20 5305 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 72 72 W 11 19 5305 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 71 71 W 9 16 5305 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 71 71 W 8 13 5305 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 73 73 WSW 5 11 5305 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 76 76 WSW 4 9 6827 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 79 80 WSW 3 8 11347 8329 2049 Blue 1
9 AM Mon 81 84 NW 4 10 12918 11672 5392 Blue 5
10 AM Mon 82 87 NNW 6 12 13884 12829 6549 Blue 8
11 AM Mon 84 91 N 6 13 15622 14109 7829 Blue 12
12 Noon Mon 86 94 N 6 13 18732 15014 8734 Blue 14
1 PM Mon 88 97 N 8 13 19855 18552 12272 Blue 17
2 PM Mon 90 98 NNE 8 14 20169 18958 12678 Blue 18
3 PM Mon 91 97 NE 8 14 19855 18552 12272 Blue 17
4 PM Mon 90 94 NE 8 13 18732 15014 8734 Blue 14
5 PM Mon 90 92 NNW 8 13 17459 14413 8133 Blue 13
6 PM Mon 89 90 NW 8 14 14805 13802 7522 Blue 11
7 PM Mon 87 87 WNW 8 14 13884 12829 6549 Blue 8
8 PM Mon 85 85 W 9 16 13257 12064 5784 Blue 6
9 PM Mon 83 83 W 9 16 12534 11274 4994 Blue 4
10 PM Mon 82 82 W 9 17 12145 10870 4590 Blue 3
11 PM Mon 80 80 W 10 17 11347 8329 2049 Blue 1
12 Midnight Tue 79 79 W 9 17 10939 6757 477 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 77 77 W 9 16 8450 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 76 76 W 8 14 6827 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 74 74 W 8 13 5305 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 73 73 W 6 12 5305 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 73 73 W 5 10 5305 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 76 76 W 3 9 6827 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 78 78 WNW 2 6 9722 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 81 82 WNW 2 6 12145 10870 4590 Blue 3
9 AM Tue 83 86 NW 3 8 13572 12449 6169 Blue 7
10 AM Tue 84 89 NNW 5 11 14501 13492 7212 Blue 10
11 AM Tue 85 92 N 6 13 17459 14413 8133 Blue 13
12 Noon Tue 87 95 N 8 14 19140 16869 10589 Blue 15
1 PM Tue 89 98 NE 9 16 20169 18958 12678 Blue 18
2 PM Tue 90 98 ENE 9 16 20169 18958 12678 Blue 18
3 PM Tue 92 98 NE 8 14 20169 18958 12678 Blue 18
4 PM Tue 91 96 NNE 6 12 19537 18139 11859 Blue 16
5 PM Tue 92 95 N 5 11 19140 16869 10589 Blue 15
6 PM Tue 90 91 N 5 11 15622 14109 7829 Blue 12
7 PM Tue 89 89 WNW 5 11 14501 13492 7212 Blue 10
8 PM Tue 87 87 W 6 12 13884 12829 6549 Blue 8
9 PM Tue 85 85 W 8 14 13257 12064 5784 Blue 6
10 PM Tue 84 84 W 9 16 12918 11672 5392 Blue 5
11 PM Tue 82 82 W 10 17 12145 10870 4590 Blue 3
12 Midnight Wed 80 80 W 10 17 11347 8329 2049 Blue 1
1 AM Wed 79 79 W 9 17 10939 6757 477 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 77 77 W 9 16 8450 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 76 76 W 8 14 6827 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 75 75 W 6 13 5305 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 75 75 W 5 11 5305 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 77 77 W 4 10 8450 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 80 80 W 3 8 11347 8329 2049 Blue 1
8 AM Wed 82 83 W 3 8 12534 11274 4994 Blue 4
9 AM Wed 84 87 WNW 4 9 13884 12829 6549 Blue 8
10 AM Wed 85 90 NNW 5 11 14805 13802 7522 Blue 11
11 AM Wed 87 94 N 6 13 18732 15014 8734 Blue 14
12 Noon Wed 89 97 N 8 14 19855 18552 12272 Blue 17
1 PM Wed 91 100 N 9 16 21740 19703 13423 White 20
2 PM Wed 93 101 N 10 17 21934 20016 13736 White 21
3 PM Wed 93 100 NNW 10 18 21740 19703 13423 White 20
4 PM Wed 94 99 W 11 19 20480 19356 13076 Blue 19
5 PM Wed 93 96 WSW 11 19 19537 18139 11859 Blue 16
6 PM Wed 91 92 WSW 11 19 17459 14413 8133 Blue 13
7 PM Wed 89 89 SW 10 18 14501 13492 7212 Blue 10
8 PM Wed 87 87 SW 10 18 13884 12829 6549 Blue 8
9 PM Wed 85 85 SW 10 18 13257 12064 5784 Blue 6
10 PM Wed 83 83 SW 10 18 12534 11274 4994 Blue 4
11 PM Wed 82 82 SW 11 18 12145 10870 4590 Blue 3
12 Midnight Thu 81 81 SW 11 18 11749 9576 3296 Blue 2
1 AM Thu 80 80 WSW 10 18 11347 8329 2049 Blue 1
2 AM Thu 79 79 WSW 10 18 10939 6757 477 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 78 78 WSW 10 18 9722 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 77 77 WSW 10 17 8450 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 76 76 WSW 10 11 6827 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 76 76 WSW 10 11 6827 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 78 78 WSW 10 11 9722 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 80 81 WSW 8 11 11749 9576 3296 Blue 2
9 AM Thu 83 86 WSW 8 11 13572 12449 6169 Blue 7
10 AM Thu 86 91 WSW 8 11 15622 14109 7829 Blue 12
11 AM Thu 89 95 WSW 9 19 19140 16869 10589 Blue 15
12 Noon Thu 91 99 WSW 9 19 20480 19356 13076 Blue 19
1 PM Thu 92 100 WSW 9 19 21740 19703 13423 White 20
2 PM Thu 91 99 SSW 13 20 20480 19356 13076 Blue 19
3 PM Thu 91 97 SSW 13 20 19855 18552 12272 Blue 17
4 PM Thu 90 94 SSW 13 20 18732 15014 8734 Blue 14
5 PM Thu 88 91 SSW 17 23 15622 14109 7829 Blue 12
6 PM Thu 87 88 SSW 17 23 14194 13179 6899 Blue 9
7 PM Thu 87 87 SSW 17 23 13884 12829 6549 Blue 8
8 PM Thu 86 86 SSW 16 17 13572 12449 6169 Blue 7
9 PM Thu 86 86 SSW 16 17 13572 12449 6169 Blue 7
10 PM Thu 85 85 SSW 16 17 13257 12064 5784 Blue 6
11 PM Thu 84 84 SSW 14 14 12918 11672 5392 Blue 5
12 Midnight Fri 83 83 SSW 14 14 12534 11274 4994 Blue 4
1 AM Fri 82 82 SSW 14 14 12145 10870 4590 Blue 3
2 AM Fri 81 81 SSW 14 12 11749 9576 3296 Blue 2
3 AM Fri 80 80 SSW 14 12 11347 8329 2049 Blue 1
4 AM Fri 78 78 SSW 14 12 9722 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 76 76 SSW 11 9 6827 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 74 74 SSW 11 9 5305 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 73 73 SSW 11 9 5305 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 72 73 SSE 3 8 5305 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 73 76 SSE 3 8 6827 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 75 80 SSE 3 8 11347 8329 2049 Blue 1
11 AM Fri 79 86 ENE 8 17 13572 12449 6169 Blue 7
12 Noon Fri 83 91 ENE 8 17 15622 14109 7829 Blue 12
1 PM Fri 87 95 ENE 8 17 19140 16869 10589 Blue 15
2 PM Fri 88 96 WSW 10 18 19537 18139 11859 Blue 16
3 PM Fri 89 95 WSW 10 18 19140 16869 10589 Blue 15
4 PM Fri 87 92 WSW 10 18 17459 14413 8133 Blue 13
5 PM Fri 85 88 SW 14 19 14194 13179 6899 Blue 9
6 PM Fri 85 86 SW 14 19 13572 12449 6169 Blue 7
7 PM Fri 85 85 SW 14 19 13257 12064 5784 Blue 6
8 PM Fri 84 84 SW 13 14 12918 11672 5392 Blue 5
9 PM Fri 84 84 SW 13 14 12918 11672 5392 Blue 5
10 PM Fri 83 83 SW 13 14 12534 11274 4994 Blue 4
11 PM Fri 83 83 SSW 13 12 12534 11274 4994 Blue 4
12 Midnight Sat 82 82 SSW 13 12 12145 10870 4590 Blue 3
1 AM Sat 82 82 SSW 13 12 12145 10870 4590 Blue 3
2 AM Sat 80 80 SSW 10 11 11347 8329 2049 Blue 1
3 AM Sat 77 77 SSW 10 11 8450 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 73 73 SSW 10 11 5305 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 70 70 SSW 4 8 5305 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 70 70 SSW 4 8 5305 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 71 71 SSW 4 8 5305 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 73 74 W 3 8 5305 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 74 77 W 3 8 8450 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 76 81 W 3 8 11749 9576 3296 Blue 2
11 AM Sat 78 84 NNE 8 17 12918 11672 5392 Blue 5
12 Noon Sat 81 88 NNE 8 17 14194 13179 6899 Blue 9
1 PM Sat 84 92 NNE 8 17 17459 14413 8133 Blue 13
2 PM Sat 85 92 NW 10 20 17459 14413 8133 Blue 13
3 PM Sat 86 92 NW 10 20 17459 14413 8133 Blue 13
4 PM Sat 84 88 NW 10 20 14194 13179 6899 Blue 9
5 PM Sat 82 84 SW 13 18 12918 11672 5392 Blue 5
6 PM Sat 81 82 SW 13 18 12145 10870 4590 Blue 3
7 PM Sat 81 81 SW 13 18 11749 9576 3296 Blue 2
8 PM Sat 80 80 SW 10 16 11347 8329 2049 Blue 1
9 PM Sat 80 80 SW 10 16 11347 8329 2049 Blue 1
10 PM Sat 79 79 SW 10 16 10939 6757 477 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst