Detailed Predictions for: Blackhawk
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.344300, -116.820000, 6280
LZ Altitude (f): 3700
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 5 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Tue 49 49 SSE 5 11 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 49 49 SE 5 11 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 49 49 SE 5 11 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 48 48 SE 5 11 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 47 47 SE 5 12 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 48 48 SE 5 11 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 47 47 SE 5 11 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 48 48 SSE 6 12 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 51 51 SE 6 13 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 53 54 SE 6 13 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 54 56 E 8 14 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 56 58 E 8 14 6225 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 56 59 E 9 16 7488 6280 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 57 59 E 9 17 7488 6280 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 58 59 E 10 17 7488 6280 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 57 57 E 10 17 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 56 56 E 9 16 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 54 54 ESE 8 14 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 52 52 SE 6 13 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 52 52 SSE 5 11 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 52 52 SSE 5 10 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 52 52 S 4 9 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 52 52 S 4 9 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 52 52 SSW 4 9 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 52 52 SW 4 9 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 52 52 SW 4 10 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 51 51 SW 4 10 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 51 51 SSW 4 10 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 50 50 SSW 4 10 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 50 50 SSW 6 12 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 50 50 SW 8 13 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 50 50 SW 8 14 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 52 52 WSW 6 12 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 55 56 NW 4 10 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 58 60 NNW 3 8 7818 6280 0 Blue 1
11 AM Wed 59 61 NNW 3 8 8088 6280 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Wed 60 62 N 3 9 8327 7421 1141 Blue 3
1 PM Wed 60 62 N 5 10 8327 7421 1141 Blue 3
2 PM Wed 60 61 NNW 5 11 8088 6280 0 Blue 2
3 PM Wed 59 59 W 6 13 7488 6280 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 57 57 WSW 9 14 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 55 55 WSW 11 19 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 53 53 SW 13 23 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 52 52 SW 16 25 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 51 51 SW 16 25 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 50 50 SW 14 24 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 50 50 SW 14 24 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 50 50 SW 17 27 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 50 50 SW 19 31 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 50 50 SW 21 34 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 49 49 SW 21 34 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 48 48 SW 21 33 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 47 47 SW 20 32 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 46 46 SW 19 31 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 46 46 SW 19 29 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 46 46 SW 19 29 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 47 47 WSW 19 29 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 49 50 W 19 29 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 51 52 WNW 19 31 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 52 54 WNW 20 33 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 53 55 WNW 23 34 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 53 55 WNW 23 35 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 52 53 WNW 24 36 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 51 51 W 24 36 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 50 50 W 23 35 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 48 48 W 21 34 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 47 47 W 20 32 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 46 46 W 20 32 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 46 46 W 21 33 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 46 46 W 23 34 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 45 45 W 24 36 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 45 45 W 24 36 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 45 45 W 23 35 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 45 45 W 23 35 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 44 44 W 23 34 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 43 43 W 21 34 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 42 42 W 21 34 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 41 41 W 21 34 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 40 40 W 21 34 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 40 40 W 13 21 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 40 40 W 13 21 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 42 43 W 13 21 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 43 45 ENE 8 14 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 45 47 ENE 8 14 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 46 48 ENE 8 14 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 47 49 E 11 18 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 46 47 E 11 18 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 46 46 E 11 18 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 44 44 E 10 18 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 43 43 E 10 18 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 41 41 E 10 18 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 40 40 SE 9 16 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 40 40 SE 9 16 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 40 40 SE 9 16 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 40 40 SE 9 16 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 40 40 SE 9 16 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 40 40 SE 9 16 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 40 40 ESE 6 12 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 39 39 ESE 6 12 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 38 38 ESE 6 12 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 37 37 ESE 8 13 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 37 37 ESE 8 13 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 37 37 ESE 8 13 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 38 38 ESE 5 11 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 40 40 ESE 5 11 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 42 43 ESE 5 11 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 43 45 NE 6 12 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 45 47 NE 6 12 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 46 48 NE 6 12 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 46 48 NNE 8 14 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 46 47 NNE 8 14 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 45 45 NNE 8 14 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 44 44 NNE 6 12 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 43 43 NNE 6 12 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 42 42 NNE 6 12 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 41 41 S 5 11 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 41 41 S 5 11 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 41 41 S 5 11 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 42 42 SE 6 12 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 42 42 SE 6 12 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 43 43 SE 6 12 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 43 43 SSE 6 12 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 43 43 SSE 6 12 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 42 42 SSE 6 12 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 42 42 SSE 6 13 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 42 42 SSE 6 13 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 42 42 SSE 6 13 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 42 42 SSE 8 13 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 44 44 SSE 8 13 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 46 47 SSE 8 13 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 48 49 NE 6 12 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 50 52 NE 6 12 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 52 54 NE 6 12 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 52 54 NE 8 14 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 52 53 NE 8 14 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 51 51 NE 8 14 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 50 50 E 6 12 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 48 48 E 6 12 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 47 47 E 6 12 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 46 46 SE 6 13 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 46 46 SE 6 13 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 46 46 SE 6 13 5089 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 46 46 SE 6 13 5089 6280 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst