Detailed Predictions for: Blackhawk
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.344300, -116.820000, 6280
LZ Altitude (f): 3700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

18 MAY 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 59 59 WNW 21 33 5469 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 59 59 WNW 20 32 5469 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 58 58 WNW 18 28 5446 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 57 57 WNW 17 27 5446 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 57 57 W 16 25 5446 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 57 57 W 14 24 5446 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 58 58 W 14 24 5446 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 59 59 W 16 25 5469 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 60 62 W 14 24 7024 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 62 65 W 14 24 8098 6930 650 Blue 3
10 AM Tue 64 70 WNW 13 21 9524 8646 2366 Blue 8
11 AM Tue 66 73 WNW 11 20 11264 9489 3209 Blue 11
12 Noon Tue 68 76 WNW 11 19 15795 11049 4769 Blue 14
1 PM Tue 70 79 NW 12 20 17859 15433 9153 White 17
2 PM Tue 72 80 WNW 11 19 18060 16440 10160 White 18
3 PM Tue 74 80 WNW 13 21 18060 16440 10160 White 18
4 PM Tue 74 78 W 14 24 17658 14247 7967 White 16
5 PM Tue 75 77 WNW 17 26 16791 12722 6442 Blue 15
6 PM Tue 72 72 WNW 16 25 10176 9210 2930 Blue 10
7 PM Tue 69 69 W 16 25 9243 8361 2081 Blue 7
8 PM Tue 66 66 W 14 25 8387 7496 1216 Blue 4
9 PM Tue 64 64 W 16 25 7807 6280 0 Blue 2
10 PM Tue 64 64 WNW 17 26 7807 6280 0 Blue 2
11 PM Tue 64 64 WNW 17 27 7807 6280 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Wed 63 63 WNW 18 28 7514 6280 0 Blue 1
1 AM Wed 63 63 W 18 28 7514 6280 0 Blue 1
2 AM Wed 62 62 W 17 27 7024 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 61 61 W 17 27 5790 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 60 60 W 17 27 5629 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 59 59 W 17 26 5469 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 59 59 W 14 24 5469 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 60 60 WNW 13 21 5629 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 63 64 WNW 12 20 7807 6280 0 Blue 2
9 AM Wed 66 69 WNW 12 21 9243 8361 2081 Blue 7
10 AM Wed 70 75 WNW 14 24 14630 10128 3848 Blue 13
11 AM Wed 73 80 WNW 16 26 18060 16440 10160 White 18
12 Noon Wed 76 85 W 17 26 19085 19085 12805 White 23
1 PM Wed 76 85 WSW 17 27 19085 19085 12805 White 23
2 PM Wed 77 85 WSW 18 29 19085 19085 12805 White 23
3 PM Wed 76 82 WSW 21 33 18459 18082 11802 White 20
4 PM Wed 74 78 SW 25 37 17658 14247 7967 White 16
5 PM Wed 72 74 SW 27 41 13152 9798 3518 Blue 12
6 PM Wed 70 70 SW 28 43 9524 8646 2366 Blue 8
7 PM Wed 68 68 SW 28 43 8959 8075 1795 Blue 6
8 PM Wed 66 66 SW 28 42 8387 7496 1216 Blue 4
9 PM Wed 65 65 WSW 27 41 8098 6930 650 Blue 3
10 PM Wed 64 64 WSW 26 39 7807 6280 0 Blue 2
11 PM Wed 63 63 W 24 36 7514 6280 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Thu 62 62 W 21 33 7024 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 61 61 W 19 29 5790 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 59 59 W 17 27 5469 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 58 58 W 17 27 5446 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 56 56 WSW 17 27 5446 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 55 55 WSW 17 27 5446 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 54 54 WSW 13 23 5446 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 54 54 W 10 17 5446 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 56 57 W 8 14 5446 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 59 62 W 9 16 7024 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 62 66 WSW 11 20 8387 7496 1216 Blue 4
11 AM Thu 64 71 WSW 14 25 9843 8929 2649 Blue 9
12 Noon Thu 63 71 SW 18 28 9843 8929 2649 Blue 9
1 PM Thu 63 71 SW 20 32 9843 8929 2649 Blue 9
2 PM Thu 62 70 SW 23 34 9524 8646 2366 Blue 8
3 PM Thu 61 67 SW 24 36 8674 7787 1507 Blue 5
4 PM Thu 59 63 SW 25 37 7514 6280 0 Blue 1
5 PM Thu 58 60 SW 26 40 5629 6280 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 56 56 SW 28 42 5446 6280 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 55 55 SW 29 44 5446 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 53 53 SW 31 47 5446 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 51 51 SW 33 49 5446 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 50 50 SW 33 49 5446 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 49 49 SW 32 48 5446 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 47 47 WSW 27 41 5446 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 46 46 W 21 33 5446 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 44 44 W 16 26 5446 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 43 43 W 16 25 5446 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 42 42 W 17 27 5446 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 41 41 W 18 28 5446 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 41 41 W 18 28 5446 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 42 42 W 18 28 5446 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 43 44 W 18 28 5446 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 46 49 W 18 28 5446 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 49 54 W 18 28 5446 6280 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 52 59 W 19 31 5469 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 53 62 W 19 31 7024 6280 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 53 62 W 19 31 7024 6280 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 54 62 WSW 21 34 7024 6280 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 53 59 WSW 21 34 5469 6280 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 51 55 WSW 21 34 5446 6280 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 49 51 WSW 19 31 5446 6280 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 47 47 WSW 19 31 5446 6280 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 45 45 WSW 19 31 5446 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 43 43 SW 19 29 5446 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 42 42 SW 19 29 5446 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 42 42 SW 19 29 5446 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 42 42 WSW 17 26 5446 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 43 43 WSW 17 26 5446 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 43 43 WSW 17 26 5446 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 43 43 WSW 14 23 5446 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 43 43 WSW 14 23 5446 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 43 43 WSW 14 23 5446 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 43 43 W 12 20 5446 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 44 44 W 12 20 5446 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 45 45 W 12 20 5446 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 47 49 W 8 14 5446 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 49 52 W 8 14 5446 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 52 57 W 8 14 5446 6280 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 54 61 NW 11 19 5790 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 56 64 NW 11 19 7807 6280 0 Blue 2
1 PM Sat 58 66 NW 11 19 8387 7496 1216 Blue 4
2 PM Sat 59 67 WNW 11 19 8674 7787 1507 Blue 5
3 PM Sat 60 66 WNW 11 19 8387 7496 1216 Blue 4
4 PM Sat 59 63 WNW 11 19 7514 6280 0 Blue 1
5 PM Sat 60 62 W 11 19 7024 6280 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 59 59 W 11 19 5469 6280 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 57 57 W 11 19 5446 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 55 55 W 11 20 5446 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 53 53 W 11 20 5446 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 52 52 W 11 20 5446 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 50 50 W 12 20 5446 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 49 49 W 12 20 5446 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 48 48 W 12 20 5446 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 48 48 W 11 19 5446 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 47 47 W 11 19 5446 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 46 46 W 11 19 5446 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 46 46 WNW 10 17 5446 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 46 46 WNW 10 17 5446 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 47 47 WNW 10 17 5446 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 48 49 NW 9 16 5446 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 50 53 NW 9 16 5446 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 53 58 NW 9 16 5446 6280 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 56 63 N 9 16 7514 6280 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sun 59 67 N 9 16 8674 7787 1507 Blue 5
1 PM Sun 62 71 N 9 16 9843 8929 2649 Blue 9
2 PM Sun 64 72 N 9 16 10176 9210 2930 Blue 10
3 PM Sun 65 71 N 9 16 9843 8929 2649 Blue 9
4 PM Sun 66 70 N 9 16 9524 8646 2366 Blue 8
5 PM Sun 66 68 NNW 9 16 8959 8075 1795 Blue 6
6 PM Sun 67 67 NNW 9 16 8674 7787 1507 Blue 5
7 PM Sun 66 66 NNW 9 16 8387 7496 1216 Blue 4
8 PM Sun 64 64 NW 8 14 7807 6280 0 Blue 2
9 PM Sun 63 63 NW 8 14 7514 6280 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sun 62 62 NW 8 14 7024 6280 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst