Detailed Predictions for: Blackhawk
Launch Altitude (f): 6280
LZ Altitude (f): 3700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

18 NOV 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Mon 54 54 SE 5 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 54 54 SE 5 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 55 55 SE 5 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 57 57 SE 5 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 59 59 SE 3 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 62 63 SE 3 6919 6280 0 Blue 1
10 AM Mon 64 66 E 5 8628 6902 622 Blue 4
11 AM Mon 65 68 E 5 8875 7723 1443 Blue 6
12 Noon Mon 66 69 E 5 9129 8616 2336 Blue 7
1 PM Mon 67 69 E 6 9129 8616 2336 Blue 7
2 PM Mon 66 67 E 6 8751 7316 1036 Blue 5
3 PM Mon 67 67 E 6 8751 7316 1036 Blue 5
4 PM Mon 66 66 E 5 8628 6902 622 Blue 4
5 PM Mon 65 65 S 2 7750 6481 201 Blue 3
6 PM Mon 64 64 SW 3 7338 6280 0 Blue 2
7 PM Mon 62 62 SW 7 6493 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 60 60 SW 7 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 58 58 W 6 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 56 56 SW 6 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 55 55 SW 7 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 55 55 SW 6 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 56 56 SW 6 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 59 59 SW 7 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 62 62 SW 8 6493 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 63 63 SW 12 6919 6280 0 Blue 1
5 AM Tue 63 63 SW 12 6919 6280 0 Blue 1
6 AM Tue 62 62 SW 13 6493 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 61 61 SW 13 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 60 60 SW 12 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 60 61 SW 9 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 62 63 SW 8 6919 6280 0 Blue 1
11 AM Tue 63 64 SW 9 7338 6280 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Tue 62 63 SW 12 6919 6280 0 Blue 1
1 PM Tue 63 64 SW 13 7338 6280 0 Blue 2
2 PM Tue 62 63 SW 15 6919 6280 0 Blue 1
3 PM Tue 61 61 SW 17 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 60 60 SW 18 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 58 58 SW 17 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 56 56 SW 15 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 55 55 SW 15 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 54 54 SW 16 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 53 53 SW 20 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 52 52 SW 23 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 51 51 SW 25 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 50 50 SW 26 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 49 49 SW 25 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 48 48 SW 22 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 47 47 SW 17 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 46 46 SW 13 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 44 44 SW 10 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 43 43 S 8 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 42 42 S 8 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 42 42 S 6 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 43 43 SW 6 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 43 43 SW 5 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 43 43 SW 7 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 44 44 W 9 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 43 43 W 12 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 42 42 W 12 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 42 42 W 13 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 42 42 W 13 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 41 41 W 13 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 40 40 W 13 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 40 40 W 14 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 39 39 W 15 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 38 38 W 15 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 38 38 W 16 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 39 39 SW 17 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 41 41 SW 17 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 42 42 SW 17 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 42 42 SW 14 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 42 42 SW 10 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 41 41 SW 7 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 41 41 SW 7 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 41 41 SW 7 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 40 40 E 5 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 40 40 E 5 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 40 40 E 5 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 40 41 E 9 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 41 42 E 9 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 42 43 E 9 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 43 44 E 12 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 44 45 E 12 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 43 43 E 12 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 43 43 E 5 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 44 44 E 5 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 43 43 E 5 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 43 43 E 6 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 42 42 E 6 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 42 42 E 6 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 42 42 E 5 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 42 42 E 5 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 41 41 E 5 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 41 41 E 5 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 40 40 E 5 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 40 40 E 5 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 40 40 SE 7 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 40 40 SE 7 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 40 40 SE 7 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 41 41 SE 9 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 42 42 SE 9 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 43 44 SE 9 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 44 45 E 12 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 45 47 E 12 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 46 48 E 12 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 46 48 E 10 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 45 46 E 10 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 45 45 E 10 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 46 46 E 10 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 46 46 E 10 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 45 45 E 10 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 45 45 E 10 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 44 44 E 10 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 44 44 E 10 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 44 44 E 9 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 43 43 E 9 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 43 43 E 9 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 42 42 E 9 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 42 42 E 9 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 42 42 E 9 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 42 42 E 9 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 41 41 E 9 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 41 41 E 9 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 41 41 E 12 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 42 42 E 12 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 44 45 E 12 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 46 47 E 12 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 47 49 E 12 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 48 50 E 12 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 49 51 E 13 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 49 50 E 13 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 48 48 E 13 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 49 49 E 12 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 48 48 E 12 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 48 48 E 12 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 48 48 SE 8 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 47 47 SE 8 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 47 47 SE 8 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 46 46 E 7 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 46 46 E 7 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 45 45 E 7 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 45 45 SE 2 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 45 45 SE 2 4984 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 45 45 SE 2 4984 6280 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst