Detailed Predictions for: Blossom Valley
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 32.8766103497, -116.848377211, 1500
LZ Altitude (f): 700
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 6 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Wed 59 59 E 6 12 735 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 58 58 ENE 5 10 735 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 58 58 E 5 11 735 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 56 56 E 6 12 735 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 55 55 E 5 11 735 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 55 55 E 4 10 735 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 54 54 ESE 4 9 735 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 55 55 ESE 3 9 735 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 60 60 ESE 3 8 735 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 65 66 ESE 2 6 950 1500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 71 73 WSW 3 9 1823 1500 0 Blue 6
11 AM Wed 73 75 WSW 5 11 2236 1691 191 Blue 8
12 Noon Wed 74 76 WSW 6 12 2455 1820 320 Blue 9
1 PM Wed 75 77 WSW 8 14 2665 2010 510 Blue 10
2 PM Wed 73 74 WSW 8 14 2017 1563 63 Blue 7
3 PM Wed 72 72 WSW 8 14 1694 1500 0 Blue 5
4 PM Wed 70 70 WSW 6 13 1436 1500 0 Blue 3
5 PM Wed 65 65 WSW 4 10 851 1500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 61 61 SW 3 8 735 1500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 58 58 SSW 2 5 735 1500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 57 57 SW 1 5 735 1500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 56 56 SW 1 5 735 1500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 55 55 SW 2 5 735 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 54 54 SSW 2 5 735 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 53 53 SE 2 6 735 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 51 51 ESE 2 6 735 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 51 51 SE 2 5 735 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 50 50 S 1 5 735 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 49 49 SSW 1 1 735 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 48 48 S 1 1 735 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 48 48 S 1 5 735 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 48 48 SSE 2 5 735 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 52 52 S 3 8 735 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 56 56 SW 4 9 735 1500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 60 61 WSW 5 11 735 1500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 62 63 WSW 6 12 735 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 64 66 WSW 8 14 950 1500 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 65 66 WSW 9 16 950 1500 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 65 65 WSW 9 16 851 1500 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 64 64 SW 8 14 753 1500 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 62 62 SW 8 13 735 1500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 59 59 SSW 6 12 735 1500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 57 57 S 5 11 735 1500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 54 54 S 4 10 735 1500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 53 53 SSE 5 10 735 1500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 53 53 SSE 5 12 735 1500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 52 52 SE 6 13 735 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 52 52 SE 8 13 735 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 51 51 SE 8 13 735 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 50 50 SE 8 14 735 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 49 49 SE 9 16 735 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 48 48 ESE 9 16 735 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 47 47 ESE 9 17 735 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 46 46 ESE 9 17 735 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 45 45 ESE 9 16 735 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 46 46 ESE 8 14 735 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 49 49 SE 6 13 735 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 54 55 S 5 11 735 1500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 59 61 SSW 4 10 735 1500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 62 64 SW 4 10 753 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 65 67 WSW 4 10 1049 1500 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 66 68 WSW 5 11 1178 1500 0 Blue 1
2 PM Fri 67 68 W 6 13 1178 1500 0 Blue 1
3 PM Fri 66 66 WNW 9 17 950 1500 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 64 64 NW 11 18 753 1500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 61 61 N 10 17 735 1500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 57 57 E 8 14 735 1500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 54 54 SE 6 13 735 1500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 52 52 ESE 8 13 735 1500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 51 51 E 9 16 735 1500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 51 51 ENE 12 20 735 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 50 50 ENE 18 28 735 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 50 50 E 24 37 735 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 49 49 E 28 43 735 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 49 49 E 29 44 735 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 48 48 E 27 41 735 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 48 48 E 26 39 735 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 47 47 E 26 39 735 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 47 47 E 26 39 735 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 48 48 E 17 26 735 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 52 52 E 17 26 735 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 57 58 E 17 26 735 1500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 62 64 WSW 6 13 753 1500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 66 68 WSW 6 13 1178 1500 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sat 68 70 WSW 6 13 1436 1500 0 Blue 3
1 PM Sat 69 71 W 6 12 1565 1500 0 Blue 4
2 PM Sat 69 70 W 6 12 1436 1500 0 Blue 3
3 PM Sat 68 68 W 6 12 1178 1500 0 Blue 1
4 PM Sat 66 66 W 8 13 950 1500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 62 62 W 8 13 735 1500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 59 59 W 8 13 735 1500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 55 55 E 10 18 735 1500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 54 54 E 10 18 735 1500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 52 52 E 10 18 735 1500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 52 52 E 10 17 735 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 51 51 E 10 17 735 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 51 51 E 10 17 735 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 50 50 ENE 8 14 735 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 50 50 ENE 8 14 735 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 49 49 ENE 8 14 735 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 49 49 ENE 5 11 735 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 48 48 ENE 5 11 735 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 48 48 ENE 5 11 735 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 49 49 NNW 4 10 735 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 54 54 NNW 4 10 735 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 61 62 NNW 4 10 735 1500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 67 68 W 5 11 1178 1500 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sun 71 73 W 5 11 1823 1500 0 Blue 6
12 Noon Sun 74 76 W 5 11 2455 1820 320 Blue 9
1 PM Sun 75 77 WSW 8 14 2665 2010 510 Blue 10
2 PM Sun 75 76 WSW 8 14 2455 1820 320 Blue 9
3 PM Sun 73 73 WSW 8 14 1823 1500 0 Blue 6
4 PM Sun 71 71 W 6 12 1565 1500 0 Blue 4
5 PM Sun 67 67 W 6 12 1049 1500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 62 62 W 6 12 735 1500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 59 59 ENE 1 5 735 1500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 57 57 ENE 1 5 735 1500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 56 56 ENE 1 5 735 1500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 56 56 SSW 2 5 735 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 55 55 SSW 2 5 735 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 54 54 SSW 2 5 735 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 53 53 E 8 13 735 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 52 52 E 8 13 735 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 52 52 E 8 13 735 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 51 51 E 10 17 735 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 51 51 E 10 17 735 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 51 51 E 10 17 735 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 53 53 E 10 17 735 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 57 57 E 10 17 735 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 62 62 E 10 17 735 1500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 68 69 WSW 4 10 1307 1500 0 Blue 2
11 AM Mon 71 73 WSW 4 10 1823 1500 0 Blue 6
12 Noon Mon 73 75 WSW 4 10 2236 1691 191 Blue 8
1 PM Mon 74 75 W 8 13 2236 1691 191 Blue 8
2 PM Mon 74 75 W 8 13 2236 1691 191 Blue 8
3 PM Mon 72 72 W 8 13 1694 1500 0 Blue 5
4 PM Mon 69 69 WNW 8 14 1307 1500 0 Blue 2
5 PM Mon 66 66 WNW 8 14 950 1500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 62 62 WNW 8 14 735 1500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 58 58 ENE 4 10 735 1500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 56 56 ENE 4 10 735 1500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 55 55 ENE 4 10 735 1500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 55 55 ESE 4 10 735 1500 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst