Detailed Predictions for: Blossom Valley
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 32.8766103497, -116.848377211, 1500
LZ Altitude (f): 700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

23 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 62 62 SSW 3 9 1482 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 61 61 N 2 5 728 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 61 61 WNW 2 6 728 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 61 61 WSW 3 8 728 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 61 61 ESE 3 8 728 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 62 62 NW 2 6 1482 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 62 62 WSW 3 8 1482 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 63 63 W 2 6 1553 1500 0 Blue 1
8 AM Wed 66 66 WSW 3 8 1767 1552 52 Blue 4
9 AM Wed 70 71 WSW 5 11 2091 1907 407 Blue 9
10 AM Wed 75 77 WSW 5 11 2643 2359 859 Blue 15
11 AM Wed 79 83 WSW 6 13 3040 2841 1341 Blue 21
12 Noon Wed 81 85 WSW 8 14 3170 2971 1471 Blue 23
1 PM Wed 82 86 WSW 10 17 3235 3036 1536 Blue 24
2 PM Wed 81 86 W 10 17 3235 3036 1536 Blue 24
3 PM Wed 81 85 W 10 17 3170 2971 1471 Blue 23
4 PM Wed 82 85 W 10 17 3170 2971 1471 Blue 23
5 PM Wed 80 82 W 9 16 2975 2777 1277 Blue 20
6 PM Wed 77 78 W 9 14 2713 2486 986 Blue 16
7 PM Wed 74 74 W 8 13 2367 2089 589 Blue 12
8 PM Wed 70 70 W 6 12 2041 1836 336 Blue 8
9 PM Wed 67 67 W 5 11 1838 1623 123 Blue 5
10 PM Wed 65 65 W 4 9 1696 1500 0 Blue 3
11 PM Wed 64 64 W 3 8 1624 1500 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Thu 62 62 W 2 6 1482 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 62 62 WNW 2 6 1482 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 60 60 WNW 2 6 440 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 59 59 WNW 2 5 440 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 58 58 WNW 2 5 440 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 57 57 WNW 2 5 440 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 58 58 WNW 2 6 440 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 60 60 W 3 8 440 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 63 63 W 3 9 1553 1500 0 Blue 1
9 AM Thu 66 67 W 4 10 1838 1623 123 Blue 5
10 AM Thu 70 72 W 5 11 2141 1978 478 Blue 10
11 AM Thu 74 81 W 6 13 2910 2709 1209 Blue 19
12 Noon Thu 77 86 W 9 16 3235 3036 1536 Blue 24
1 PM Thu 79 88 W 10 18 3365 3165 1665 Blue 26
2 PM Thu 79 87 W 11 19 3300 3100 1600 Blue 25
3 PM Thu 80 87 W 11 19 3300 3100 1600 Blue 25
4 PM Thu 78 83 W 11 18 3040 2841 1341 Blue 21
5 PM Thu 76 78 W 10 17 2713 2486 986 Blue 16
6 PM Thu 74 75 W 9 16 2490 2139 639 Blue 13
7 PM Thu 70 70 W 8 14 2041 1836 336 Blue 8
8 PM Thu 68 68 W 6 12 1909 1694 194 Blue 6
9 PM Thu 65 65 W 5 11 1696 1500 0 Blue 3
10 PM Thu 63 63 W 4 9 1553 1500 0 Blue 1
11 PM Thu 62 62 W 3 8 1482 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 61 61 WSW 2 6 728 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 59 59 SW 2 6 440 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 58 58 SW 2 6 440 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 57 57 SW 2 5 440 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 56 56 SW 2 5 440 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 56 56 WSW 2 6 440 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 57 57 WSW 2 6 440 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 59 59 W 2 6 440 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 63 64 W 3 8 1624 1500 0 Blue 2
9 AM Fri 67 69 W 4 10 1980 1765 265 Blue 7
10 AM Fri 72 75 W 5 11 2490 2139 639 Blue 13
11 AM Fri 76 83 W 6 13 3040 2841 1341 Blue 21
12 Noon Fri 79 88 W 9 16 3365 3165 1665 Blue 26
1 PM Fri 81 90 W 10 17 3495 3295 1795 Blue 28
2 PM Fri 81 89 W 10 18 3430 3230 1730 Blue 27
3 PM Fri 82 89 W 10 18 3430 3230 1730 Blue 27
4 PM Fri 81 86 W 10 18 3235 3036 1536 Blue 24
5 PM Fri 79 82 W 9 17 2975 2777 1277 Blue 20
6 PM Fri 76 77 W 8 14 2643 2359 859 Blue 15
7 PM Fri 74 74 W 6 13 2367 2089 589 Blue 12
8 PM Fri 71 71 W 5 11 2091 1907 407 Blue 9
9 PM Fri 68 68 W 4 9 1909 1694 194 Blue 6
10 PM Fri 66 66 W 3 8 1767 1552 52 Blue 4
11 PM Fri 64 64 W 2 6 1624 1500 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Sat 63 63 W 2 5 1553 1500 0 Blue 1
1 AM Sat 61 61 W 2 5 728 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 60 60 WSW 2 5 440 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 58 58 W 1 5 440 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 57 57 W 1 5 440 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 57 57 W 1 5 440 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 59 59 W 1 5 440 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 62 62 W 1 5 1482 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 66 67 W 2 6 1838 1623 123 Blue 5
9 AM Sat 70 73 W 2 6 2191 2039 539 Blue 11
10 AM Sat 74 78 W 2 6 2713 2486 986 Blue 16
11 AM Sat 78 86 W 5 11 3235 3036 1536 Blue 24
12 Noon Sat 82 91 W 5 11 3592 3360 1860 Blue 29
1 PM Sat 84 93 W 5 11 4042 3489 1989 Blue 31
2 PM Sat 86 94 W 9 16 4272 3583 2083 Blue 32
3 PM Sat 85 92 W 9 16 3811 3425 1925 Blue 30
4 PM Sat 85 90 W 9 16 3495 3295 1795 Blue 28
5 PM Sat 83 86 W 8 13 3235 3036 1536 Blue 24
6 PM Sat 81 82 W 8 13 2975 2777 1277 Blue 20
7 PM Sat 78 78 W 8 13 2713 2486 986 Blue 16
8 PM Sat 75 75 W 4 10 2490 2139 639 Blue 13
9 PM Sat 73 73 W 4 10 2191 2039 539 Blue 11
10 PM Sat 70 70 W 4 10 2041 1836 336 Blue 8
11 PM Sat 68 68 SW 2 6 1909 1694 194 Blue 6
12 Midnight Sun 66 66 SW 2 6 1767 1552 52 Blue 4
1 AM Sun 64 64 SW 2 6 1624 1500 0 Blue 2
2 AM Sun 62 62 SSW 2 6 1482 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 61 61 SSW 2 6 728 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 61 61 SSW 2 6 728 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 61 61 W 2 5 728 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 62 62 W 2 5 1482 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 63 63 W 2 5 1553 1500 0 Blue 1
8 AM Sun 66 67 W 2 6 1838 1623 123 Blue 5
9 AM Sun 71 73 W 2 6 2191 2039 539 Blue 11
10 AM Sun 77 81 W 2 6 2910 2709 1209 Blue 19
11 AM Sun 82 89 WSW 5 11 3430 3230 1730 Blue 27
12 Noon Sun 85 94 WSW 5 11 4272 3583 2083 Blue 32
1 PM Sun 88 97 WSW 5 11 9336 4248 2748 White 35
2 PM Sun 89 97 WSW 9 14 9336 4248 2748 White 35
3 PM Sun 88 95 WSW 9 14 4578 3790 2290 Blue 33
4 PM Sun 88 93 WSW 9 14 4042 3489 1989 Blue 31
5 PM Sun 87 90 WSW 8 13 3495 3295 1795 Blue 28
6 PM Sun 84 85 WSW 8 13 3170 2971 1471 Blue 23
7 PM Sun 80 80 WSW 8 13 2845 2640 1140 Blue 18
8 PM Sun 77 77 WSW 4 10 2643 2359 859 Blue 15
9 PM Sun 74 74 WSW 4 10 2367 2089 589 Blue 12
10 PM Sun 72 72 WSW 4 10 2141 1978 478 Blue 10
11 PM Sun 71 71 WSW 2 6 2091 1907 407 Blue 9
12 Midnight Mon 69 69 WSW 2 6 1980 1765 265 Blue 7
1 AM Mon 68 68 WSW 2 6 1909 1694 194 Blue 6
2 AM Mon 66 66 W 2 6 1767 1552 52 Blue 4
3 AM Mon 64 64 W 2 6 1624 1500 0 Blue 2
4 AM Mon 63 63 W 2 6 1553 1500 0 Blue 1
5 AM Mon 63 63 WSW 1 5 1553 1500 0 Blue 1
6 AM Mon 64 64 WSW 1 5 1624 1500 0 Blue 2
7 AM Mon 67 67 WSW 1 5 1838 1623 123 Blue 5
8 AM Mon 71 72 SW 2 6 2141 1978 478 Blue 10
9 AM Mon 76 79 SW 2 6 2780 2570 1070 Blue 17
10 AM Mon 82 86 SW 2 6 3235 3036 1536 Blue 24
11 AM Mon 86 93 WSW 5 11 4042 3489 1989 Blue 31
12 Noon Mon 89 97 WSW 5 11 9336 4248 2748 White 35
1 PM Mon 90 98 WSW 5 11 9549 4517 3017 White 36
2 PM Mon 90 97 WSW 8 14 9336 4248 2748 White 35
3 PM Mon 91 97 WSW 8 14 9336 4248 2748 White 35
4 PM Mon 90 94 WSW 8 14 4272 3583 2083 Blue 32
5 PM Mon 88 90 WSW 6 13 3495 3295 1795 Blue 28
6 PM Mon 85 86 WSW 6 13 3235 3036 1536 Blue 24
7 PM Mon 82 82 WSW 6 13 2975 2777 1277 Blue 20
8 PM Mon 79 79 WSW 4 10 2780 2570 1070 Blue 17
9 PM Mon 76 76 WSW 4 10 2574 2189 689 Blue 14
10 PM Mon 73 73 WSW 4 10 2191 2039 539 Blue 11

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst