Detailed Predictions for: Blossom Valley
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 32.8766103497, -116.848377211, 1500
LZ Altitude (f): 700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

21 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 64 64 WSW 1 1 840 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 64 64 W 1 1 840 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 65 65 NE 1 1 840 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 66 66 NE 1 4 840 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 67 67 NE 1 5 840 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 67 67 NNE 1 4 840 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 67 67 N 1 4 840 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 66 66 NW 1 5 840 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 72 72 W 2 6 1650 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 78 80 W 4 9 2148 2052 552 Blue 8
10 AM Tue 81 84 W 5 10 2607 2178 678 Blue 12
11 AM Tue 85 90 W 6 12 3386 2989 1489 Blue 18
12 Noon Tue 89 95 W 8 14 5861 3882 2382 Blue 23
1 PM Tue 91 97 W 9 16 7287 4945 3445 Blue 25
2 PM Tue 91 97 W 10 18 7287 4945 3445 Blue 25
3 PM Tue 90 94 W 10 17 5078 3585 2085 Blue 22
4 PM Tue 89 92 W 8 14 3910 3247 1747 Blue 20
5 PM Tue 87 88 W 6 13 3127 2730 1230 Blue 16
6 PM Tue 84 84 W 4 10 2607 2178 678 Blue 12
7 PM Tue 79 79 NW 3 8 2116 2021 521 Blue 7
8 PM Tue 76 76 NNW 2 5 2022 1800 300 Blue 4
9 PM Tue 73 73 NW 1 5 1802 1500 0 Blue 1
10 PM Tue 72 72 W 2 6 1650 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 71 71 W 2 6 1285 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 70 70 WNW 2 6 916 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 71 71 N 2 6 1285 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 71 71 NE 2 6 1285 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 70 70 NE 2 6 916 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 69 69 E 2 6 840 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 70 70 E 2 6 916 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 68 68 ESE 2 6 840 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 67 67 SE 2 5 840 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 72 72 SSE 2 5 1650 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 76 78 S 3 8 2085 1961 461 Blue 6
10 AM Wed 81 84 SW 4 10 2607 2178 678 Blue 12
11 AM Wed 87 92 WSW 6 13 3910 3247 1747 Blue 20
12 Noon Wed 91 97 W 10 17 7287 4945 3445 Blue 25
1 PM Wed 95 101 W 12 20 8978 7802 6302 Blue 29
2 PM Wed 96 101 W 13 23 8978 7802 6302 Blue 29
3 PM Wed 96 100 W 13 23 8782 7153 5653 Blue 28
4 PM Wed 95 97 W 12 20 7287 4945 3445 Blue 25
5 PM Wed 92 93 W 10 18 4207 3377 1877 Blue 21
6 PM Wed 88 88 W 8 14 3127 2730 1230 Blue 16
7 PM Wed 82 82 W 5 11 2274 2115 615 Blue 10
8 PM Wed 77 77 WNW 3 8 2053 1880 380 Blue 5
9 PM Wed 74 74 W 2 6 1883 1500 0 Blue 2
10 PM Wed 72 72 SSW 2 6 1650 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 70 70 S 2 6 916 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 69 69 S 2 5 840 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 69 69 S 1 5 840 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 68 68 S 1 5 840 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 68 68 S 1 5 840 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 67 67 SSW 2 5 840 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 67 67 SSW 2 5 840 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 67 67 SW 2 5 840 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 66 66 SW 2 5 840 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 70 70 WSW 2 6 916 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 73 74 WSW 3 8 1883 1500 0 Blue 2
10 AM Thu 77 80 WSW 4 10 2148 2052 552 Blue 8
11 AM Thu 82 86 WSW 6 12 2867 2391 891 Blue 14
12 Noon Thu 86 91 WSW 9 16 3610 3118 1618 Blue 19
1 PM Thu 88 94 W 10 18 5078 3585 2085 Blue 22
2 PM Thu 89 94 W 11 19 5078 3585 2085 Blue 22
3 PM Thu 90 94 W 11 19 5078 3585 2085 Blue 22
4 PM Thu 88 90 W 10 17 3386 2989 1489 Blue 18
5 PM Thu 85 86 W 9 16 2867 2391 891 Blue 14
6 PM Thu 82 82 W 6 13 2274 2115 615 Blue 10
7 PM Thu 76 76 W 5 11 2022 1800 300 Blue 4
8 PM Thu 72 72 W 4 9 1650 1500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 69 69 WSW 3 8 840 1500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 67 67 SW 2 6 840 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 65 65 SSW 2 6 840 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 65 65 WSW 2 5 840 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 64 64 WNW 1 5 840 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 64 64 NW 1 5 840 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 63 63 NW 1 5 840 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 63 63 WNW 1 5 840 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 63 63 WNW 1 3 840 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 63 63 WNW 1 3 840 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 62 62 WNW 1 3 840 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 66 66 WNW 2 3 840 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 69 70 WNW 2 3 916 1500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 73 76 WNW 2 3 2022 1800 300 Blue 4
11 AM Fri 77 81 WSW 5 11 2179 2084 584 Blue 9
12 Noon Fri 81 86 WSW 5 11 2867 2391 891 Blue 14
1 PM Fri 84 89 WSW 5 11 3257 2859 1359 Blue 17
2 PM Fri 84 89 WSW 9 17 3257 2859 1359 Blue 17
3 PM Fri 85 89 WSW 9 17 3257 2859 1359 Blue 17
4 PM Fri 83 85 WSW 9 17 2737 2269 769 Blue 13
5 PM Fri 81 82 W 8 13 2274 2115 615 Blue 10
6 PM Fri 78 78 W 8 13 2085 1961 461 Blue 6
7 PM Fri 73 73 W 8 13 1802 1500 0 Blue 1
8 PM Fri 69 69 W 3 6 840 1500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 67 67 W 3 6 840 1500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 65 65 W 3 6 840 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 64 64 WNW 2 2 840 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 64 64 WNW 2 2 840 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 63 63 WNW 2 2 840 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 63 63 NNW 2 3 840 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 62 62 NNW 2 3 840 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 62 62 NNW 2 3 840 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 62 62 N 2 3 840 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 62 62 N 2 3 840 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 61 61 N 2 3 840 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 64 64 NW 2 3 840 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 68 69 NW 2 3 840 1500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 72 74 NW 2 3 1883 1500 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sat 76 80 WSW 5 9 2148 2052 552 Blue 8
12 Noon Sat 80 85 WSW 5 9 2737 2269 769 Blue 13
1 PM Sat 82 87 WSW 5 9 2997 2601 1101 Blue 15
2 PM Sat 83 88 W 9 17 3127 2730 1230 Blue 16
3 PM Sat 84 87 W 9 17 2997 2601 1101 Blue 15
4 PM Sat 82 84 W 9 17 2607 2178 678 Blue 12
5 PM Sat 80 80 W 9 16 2148 2052 552 Blue 8
6 PM Sat 77 77 W 9 16 2053 1880 380 Blue 5
7 PM Sat 72 72 W 9 16 1650 1500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 68 68 WNW 5 6 840 1500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 66 66 WNW 5 6 840 1500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 64 64 WNW 5 6 840 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 63 63 NNW 2 3 840 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 62 62 NNW 2 3 840 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 62 62 NNW 2 3 840 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 62 62 N 2 3 840 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 61 61 N 2 3 840 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 61 61 N 2 3 840 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 60 60 NNW 2 3 840 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 61 61 NNW 2 3 840 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 60 60 NNW 2 3 840 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 64 64 NNW 2 4 840 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 67 68 NNW 2 4 840 1500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 71 73 NNW 2 4 1802 1500 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sun 75 79 W 6 10 2116 2021 521 Blue 7
12 Noon Sun 79 84 W 6 10 2607 2178 678 Blue 12
1 PM Sun 82 87 W 6 10 2997 2601 1101 Blue 15
2 PM Sun 82 87 W 10 17 2997 2601 1101 Blue 15
3 PM Sun 82 85 W 10 17 2737 2269 769 Blue 13
4 PM Sun 81 83 W 10 17 2396 2146 646 Blue 11
5 PM Sun 79 80 W 9 14 2148 2052 552 Blue 8
6 PM Sun 76 76 W 9 14 2022 1800 300 Blue 4
7 PM Sun 71 71 W 9 14 1285 1500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 67 67 WNW 4 5 840 1500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 64 64 WNW 4 5 840 1500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 62 62 WNW 4 5 840 1500 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst