Detailed Predictions for: Crestline
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.2359889702, -117.312661227, 5200
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

21 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 70 68 N 10 17 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 70 68 NNE 10 18 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 69 67 NNE 11 18 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 69 67 NNE 11 19 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 69 67 NNE 11 19 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 69 67 N 11 19 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 68 66 N 12 20 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 68 66 N 12 20 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 69 67 N 12 20 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 74 73 N 12 20 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 76 77 N 11 19 4347 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 78 81 N 10 18 7782 5478 278 Blue 4
12 Noon Tue 80 84 N 9 16 8958 7700 2500 Blue 7
1 PM Tue 82 86 N 5 11 9364 8723 3523 Blue 9
2 PM Tue 83 87 S 5 11 9566 8925 3725 Blue 10
3 PM Tue 83 85 S 8 14 9161 8362 3162 Blue 8
4 PM Tue 82 83 SSW 9 16 8754 7003 1803 Blue 6
5 PM Tue 81 80 SW 9 14 7073 5200 0 Blue 3
6 PM Tue 78 76 SSW 6 12 4037 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 73 71 SSE 5 10 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 71 69 SE 4 9 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 70 68 SE 3 8 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 70 68 SE 2 6 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 70 68 SE 2 5 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 71 69 E 2 5 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 71 69 NNE 2 6 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 71 69 N 3 8 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 71 69 N 4 9 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 71 69 N 4 10 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 72 70 NNE 5 11 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 68 66 NNE 5 11 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 68 66 NNE 4 10 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 71 69 NNE 4 9 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 76 75 NNW 4 9 3725 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 77 78 WSW 4 9 5519 5200 0 Blue 1
11 AM Wed 80 83 SSW 4 10 8754 7003 1803 Blue 6
12 Noon Wed 82 86 SSW 6 12 9364 8723 3523 Blue 9
1 PM Wed 83 87 SSW 8 14 9566 8925 3725 Blue 10
2 PM Wed 85 88 SW 9 17 9705 9127 3927 Blue 11
3 PM Wed 84 86 SW 10 18 9364 8723 3523 Blue 9
4 PM Wed 84 84 SW 11 18 8958 7700 2500 Blue 7
5 PM Wed 82 81 SW 10 18 7782 5478 278 Blue 4
6 PM Wed 78 76 SSW 9 16 4037 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 70 68 SSE 6 12 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 68 66 SE 4 10 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 67 65 SE 4 9 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 66 64 SE 3 9 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 66 64 SE 3 9 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 67 65 SE 3 8 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 67 65 ESE 3 8 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 67 65 ESE 2 6 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 66 64 ESE 2 6 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 67 65 SE 2 6 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 67 65 SE 2 5 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 67 65 SE 1 5 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 67 65 ESE 1 5 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 69 67 ESE 1 5 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 73 72 SE 3 6 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 74 75 S 4 10 3725 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 76 77 SSW 6 12 4347 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 78 80 SSW 8 14 7073 5200 0 Blue 3
1 PM Thu 79 82 SSW 9 17 8455 6265 1065 Blue 5
2 PM Thu 80 82 SSW 10 18 8455 6265 1065 Blue 5
3 PM Thu 79 80 SSW 11 18 7073 5200 0 Blue 3
4 PM Thu 80 80 SSW 11 18 7073 5200 0 Blue 3
5 PM Thu 77 76 SSW 10 17 4037 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 73 71 S 8 13 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 67 65 S 4 10 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 64 62 SSE 2 6 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 64 62 SSE 2 5 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 63 61 SSE 2 6 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 63 61 SSE 3 8 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 64 62 SSE 3 8 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 64 62 SE 4 9 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 64 62 SE 4 9 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 64 62 SE 4 9 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 64 62 SE 4 9 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 64 62 SE 3 8 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 64 62 SE 3 8 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 64 62 SE 3 8 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 67 65 ENE 2 9 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 70 69 ENE 2 9 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 71 72 ENE 2 9 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 74 75 N 9 17 3725 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 75 77 N 9 17 4347 5200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 77 79 N 9 17 6322 5200 0 Blue 2
2 PM Fri 78 80 S 8 18 7073 5200 0 Blue 3
3 PM Fri 77 78 S 8 18 5519 5200 0 Blue 1
4 PM Fri 78 78 S 8 18 5519 5200 0 Blue 1
5 PM Fri 76 74 SSW 8 16 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 72 70 SSW 8 16 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 66 64 SSW 8 16 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 64 62 S 3 10 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 64 62 S 3 10 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 63 61 S 3 10 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 63 61 S 2 8 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 64 62 S 2 8 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 64 62 S 2 8 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 64 62 SSE 2 8 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 63 61 SSE 2 8 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 64 62 SSE 2 8 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 64 62 ENE 2 8 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 64 62 ENE 2 8 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 64 62 ENE 2 8 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 66 64 ENE 3 9 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 69 68 ENE 3 9 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 70 70 ENE 3 9 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 71 72 SSW 5 16 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 73 75 SSW 5 16 3725 5200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 74 76 SSW 5 16 4037 5200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 75 77 SSW 9 17 4347 5200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 74 75 SSW 9 17 3725 5200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 75 75 SSW 9 17 3725 5200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 73 72 NNW 8 14 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 69 67 NNW 8 14 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 64 62 NNW 8 14 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 62 60 SE 2 10 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 62 60 SE 2 10 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 61 59 SE 2 10 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 61 59 ESE 3 9 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 62 60 ESE 3 9 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 62 60 ESE 3 9 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 62 60 W 2 9 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 62 60 W 2 9 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 62 60 W 2 9 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 62 60 NNE 2 9 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 62 60 NNE 2 9 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 62 60 NNE 2 9 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 64 62 NE 2 9 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 67 66 NE 2 9 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 68 68 NE 2 9 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 70 71 W 5 16 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 72 74 W 5 16 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 73 75 W 5 16 3725 5200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 74 76 SSW 9 18 4037 5200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 73 74 SSW 9 18 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 74 74 SSW 9 18 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 72 71 SSW 8 14 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 68 66 SSW 8 14 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 62 60 SSW 8 14 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 60 58 S 3 10 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 60 58 S 3 10 3445 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 59 57 S 3 10 3445 5200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst