Detailed Predictions for: Crestline
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.2359889702, -117.312661227, 5200
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

23 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 75 73 SSW 2 2 7722 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 73 71 SSW 2 3 4957 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 71 69 SSW 2 3 4957 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 70 68 SSW 2 3 4957 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 69 67 S 2 3 4957 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 68 66 S 2 3 4957 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 70 68 S 2 3 4957 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 73 71 SSW 3 4 4957 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 75 74 SSW 4 4 9111 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 78 79 SSW 4 5 14265 11512 6312 Blue 4
10 AM Wed 81 84 SW 5 6 15726 15016 9816 White 8
11 AM Wed 84 89 SW 6 6 16753 16753 11553 White 13
12 Noon Wed 85 91 SW 7 8 17162 17162 11962 White 15
1 PM Wed 87 94 SW 8 9 17774 17774 12574 White 18
2 PM Wed 89 95 WSW 9 11 17977 17977 12777 White 19
3 PM Wed 88 93 WSW 9 11 17570 17570 12370 White 17
4 PM Wed 87 90 WSW 10 11 16958 16958 11758 White 14
5 PM Wed 86 87 WSW 10 12 16343 16343 11143 White 11
6 PM Wed 85 84 SW 8 9 15726 15016 9816 White 8
7 PM Wed 84 82 SW 6 7 15313 14131 8931 White 7
8 PM Wed 83 81 SSW 4 5 15105 13673 8473 White 6
9 PM Wed 82 80 SSW 4 4 14716 12757 7557 Blue 5
10 PM Wed 81 79 S 3 4 14265 11512 6312 Blue 4
11 PM Wed 79 77 S 3 3 13037 8964 3764 Blue 2
12 Midnight Thu 75 73 S 2 3 7722 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 70 68 SSE 2 2 4957 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 66 64 SSE 2 2 4957 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 65 63 SSE 2 2 4957 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 64 62 SE 2 2 4957 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 64 62 SE 1 2 4957 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 67 65 SSE 2 2 4957 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 70 68 SSW 2 3 4957 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 73 73 SW 3 4 7722 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 76 77 SW 4 5 13037 8964 3764 Blue 2
10 AM Thu 79 83 SW 5 6 15519 14578 9378 White 7
11 AM Thu 82 88 SW 6 7 16548 16548 11348 White 12
12 Noon Thu 84 91 SW 7 8 17162 17162 11962 White 15
1 PM Thu 86 93 SW 8 9 17570 17570 12370 White 17
2 PM Thu 87 93 WSW 8 10 17570 17570 12370 White 17
3 PM Thu 87 92 WSW 8 10 17366 17366 12166 White 16
4 PM Thu 86 89 WSW 8 10 16753 16753 11553 White 13
5 PM Thu 85 86 WSW 8 10 16138 15863 10663 White 10
6 PM Thu 84 83 SW 7 8 15519 14578 9378 White 7
7 PM Thu 82 80 SW 5 6 14716 12757 7557 Blue 5
8 PM Thu 80 78 SSW 3 4 13802 10098 4898 Blue 3
9 PM Thu 78 76 S 2 3 11796 7605 2405 Blue 1
10 PM Thu 75 73 SSE 2 2 7722 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 73 71 SE 1 1 4957 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 71 69 ESE 1 1 4957 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 69 67 E 1 2 4957 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 67 65 ENE 1 2 4957 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 66 64 E 1 2 4957 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 66 64 E 1 2 4957 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 66 64 E 2 3 4957 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 70 68 SE 2 2 4957 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 74 72 S 2 2 5805 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 78 78 SW 2 2 13802 10098 4898 Blue 3
9 AM Fri 81 82 SW 3 4 15313 14131 8931 White 7
10 AM Fri 84 88 SW 4 5 16548 16548 11348 White 12
11 AM Fri 87 93 SW 6 7 17570 17570 12370 White 17
12 Noon Fri 89 96 WSW 7 8 18179 18179 12979 White 20
1 PM Fri 90 97 WSW 8 9 18381 18381 13181 White 21
2 PM Fri 92 98 WSW 8 10 18584 18584 13384 White 22
3 PM Fri 91 96 WSW 8 10 18179 18179 12979 White 20
4 PM Fri 90 93 WSW 8 10 17570 17570 12370 White 17
5 PM Fri 90 91 WSW 8 10 17162 17162 11962 White 15
6 PM Fri 88 87 WSW 7 8 16343 16343 11143 White 11
7 PM Fri 87 85 SW 5 6 15931 15444 10244 White 9
8 PM Fri 86 84 SW 3 3 15726 15016 9816 White 8
9 PM Fri 84 82 S 2 3 15313 14131 8931 White 7
10 PM Fri 82 80 SE 2 3 14716 12757 7557 Blue 5
11 PM Fri 81 79 ESE 2 3 14265 11512 6312 Blue 4

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst