Detailed Predictions for: Crestline
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.2359889702, -117.312661227, 5200
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 6 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Wed 54 52 NNE 9 16 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 54 52 NNE 9 16 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 53 51 NNE 10 17 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 53 51 NNE 9 17 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 52 50 NNE 8 13 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 52 50 NNE 4 10 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 50 48 NNE 4 9 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 51 49 E 1 5 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 53 51 SE 3 9 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 56 55 SSE 5 11 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 59 59 S 9 16 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 60 60 S 10 18 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 60 60 S 11 19 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 61 61 S 12 20 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 60 59 S 13 21 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 59 57 SSW 12 21 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 57 55 SSW 12 20 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 52 50 SSW 10 18 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 51 49 SSE 8 14 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 50 48 SE 6 13 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 49 47 SE 6 12 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 48 46 SSE 6 12 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 47 45 SSE 6 12 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 47 45 SSE 6 12 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 47 45 SSE 6 13 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 45 43 SE 8 13 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 45 43 SSE 8 13 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 45 43 SSE 6 13 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 43 41 SSE 6 12 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 43 41 SSE 6 12 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 43 41 SE 6 13 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 42 40 SE 6 13 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 45 43 SSE 8 13 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 47 46 SSE 8 13 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 48 47 S 6 13 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 50 50 S 6 13 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 51 51 S 6 12 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 51 50 S 6 12 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 50 49 S 6 12 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 49 47 SSW 6 12 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 48 46 SSW 5 12 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 46 44 SSW 4 10 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 44 42 S 3 8 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 43 41 S 2 6 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 42 40 S 3 8 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 42 40 SSE 4 10 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 42 40 SE 5 11 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 41 39 SE 4 9 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 41 39 SE 3 8 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 40 38 ESE 3 8 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 39 37 E 5 11 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 39 37 NE 10 18 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 38 36 NNE 16 26 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 37 35 NNE 24 37 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 36 34 NNE 33 49 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 36 34 NNE 39 58 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 38 36 NNE 42 63 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 40 39 N 43 64 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 42 42 N 43 64 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 44 44 N 42 62 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 46 46 N 40 59 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 47 47 N 39 57 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 47 46 N 39 57 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 46 44 N 40 59 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 45 43 NNE 40 59 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 43 41 NNE 39 57 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 42 40 NNE 36 54 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 40 38 NNE 34 51 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 40 38 NNE 35 52 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 40 38 NNE 36 55 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 40 38 NNE 36 55 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 39 37 NNE 34 50 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 39 37 NNE 29 44 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 38 36 NNE 25 39 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 38 36 NNE 24 36 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 38 36 NNE 24 36 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 38 36 NNE 24 37 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 37 35 NNE 24 37 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 37 35 NNE 24 37 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 38 36 NNE 25 37 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 40 38 NNE 25 37 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 42 41 NNE 25 37 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 44 43 NNE 25 37 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 46 46 NNE 25 37 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 48 48 NNE 25 37 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 49 49 NNE 21 34 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 49 48 NNE 21 34 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 48 46 NNE 21 34 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 46 44 NNE 23 34 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 45 43 NNE 23 34 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 43 41 NNE 23 34 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 42 40 N 19 31 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 41 39 N 19 31 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 41 39 N 19 31 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 42 40 N 21 34 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 41 39 N 21 34 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 41 39 N 21 34 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 41 39 N 24 37 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 41 39 N 24 37 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 41 39 N 24 37 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 40 38 NNE 24 36 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 40 38 NNE 24 36 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 40 38 NNE 24 36 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 40 38 NNE 23 35 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 43 41 NNE 23 35 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 46 45 NNE 23 35 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 49 48 NNE 21 33 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 52 51 NNE 21 33 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 55 55 NNE 21 33 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 56 55 NNE 20 32 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 56 55 NNE 20 32 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 54 52 NNE 20 32 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 52 50 NNE 18 28 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 51 49 NNE 18 28 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 49 47 NNE 18 28 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 47 45 NNE 19 29 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 47 45 NNE 19 29 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 47 45 NNE 19 29 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 47 45 NNE 19 29 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 47 45 NNE 19 29 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 47 45 NNE 19 29 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 46 44 NNE 18 28 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 46 44 NNE 18 28 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 45 43 NNE 18 28 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 45 43 NNE 17 27 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 44 42 NNE 17 27 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 44 42 NNE 17 27 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 45 43 NNE 14 24 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 46 44 NNE 14 24 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 49 47 NNE 14 24 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 51 50 ENE 5 11 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 53 53 ENE 5 11 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 54 54 ENE 5 11 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 55 54 S 9 16 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 54 53 S 9 16 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 53 51 S 9 16 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 52 50 SSW 9 16 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 50 48 SSW 9 16 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 48 46 SSW 9 16 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 47 45 SE 6 13 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 46 44 SE 6 13 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 46 44 SE 6 13 3753 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 47 45 SE 8 13 3753 5200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst