Detailed Predictions for: Henninger Flats
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.1898, -118.0876, 3427
LZ Altitude (f): 1033
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 5 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Tue 59 59 NNE 7 10 1601 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 58 58 NNE 8 11 1601 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 57 57 NNE 7 10 1601 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 57 57 NNE 7 10 1601 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 57 57 NNE 8 11 1601 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 56 56 NNE 8 12 1601 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 56 56 NNE 8 13 1601 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 55 55 N 2 13 1601 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 55 55 NNE 8 13 1601 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 58 59 NNE 7 8 1601 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 61 63 NNE 5 5 1601 3427 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 70 72 N 3 3 3575 3427 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Tue 74 77 NW 2 2 7777 4706 1279 Blue 8
1 PM Tue 72 74 W 2 3 4765 3427 0 Blue 5
2 PM Tue 75 76 WSW 2 4 7160 3862 435 Blue 7
3 PM Tue 75 75 WSW 2 3 5952 3568 141 Blue 6
4 PM Tue 75 75 WSW 3 3 5952 3568 141 Blue 6
5 PM Tue 73 73 W 2 3 3903 3427 0 Blue 4
6 PM Tue 71 71 N 4 4 3375 3427 0 Blue 2
7 PM Tue 69 69 NNE 5 7 2940 3427 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 64 64 NNE 6 7 1601 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 63 63 NNE 5 7 1601 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 62 62 NNE 5 6 1601 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 62 62 NNE 4 5 1601 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 65 65 NNE 4 5 1601 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 64 64 NNE 4 6 1601 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 61 61 NNE 4 6 1601 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 64 64 NNE 4 6 1601 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 63 63 NNE 3 5 1601 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 60 60 NNE 3 4 1601 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 63 63 NNE 3 5 1601 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 62 62 NE 4 5 1601 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 58 58 NE 3 5 1601 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 66 67 NE 2 3 1965 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 71 73 SSE 2 3 3903 3427 0 Blue 4
11 AM Wed 65 67 SSW 4 5 1965 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 73 76 SW 6 7 7160 3862 435 Blue 7
1 PM Wed 74 76 SSW 6 7 7160 3862 435 Blue 7
2 PM Wed 70 71 SSW 6 7 3375 3427 0 Blue 2
3 PM Wed 73 73 SSW 5 6 3903 3427 0 Blue 4
4 PM Wed 72 72 SSW 5 6 3575 3427 0 Blue 3
5 PM Wed 62 62 SSW 4 5 1601 3427 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 64 64 S 2 2 1601 3427 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 62 62 E 3 3 1601 3427 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 56 56 ESE 2 3 1601 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 50 50 ENE 3 7 1601 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 49 49 ENE 3 8 1601 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 54 54 ENE 4 8 1601 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 45 45 ENE 4 8 1601 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 45 45 ENE 4 8 1601 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 52 52 ENE 4 8 1601 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 47 47 ENE 3 7 1601 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 43 43 ENE 3 7 1601 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 51 51 ENE 4 8 1601 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 42 42 NE 3 8 1601 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 42 42 NE 4 9 1601 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 49 49 NNE 4 8 1601 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 46 46 NNE 2 5 1601 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 50 51 WSW 0 1 1601 3427 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 57 59 SSW 3 6 1601 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 54 56 SSW 4 9 1601 3427 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 54 56 SW 6 11 1601 3427 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 64 65 SW 5 11 1601 3427 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 54 54 SW 5 10 1601 3427 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 54 54 SW 4 9 1601 3427 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 59 59 WSW 3 4 1601 3427 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 59 59 NNW 3 4 1601 3427 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 53 53 N 4 7 1601 3427 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 51 51 N 6 12 1601 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 42 42 NNE 6 13 1601 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 42 42 NNE 6 13 1601 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 48 48 NNE 6 14 1601 3427 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst