Detailed Predictions for: Henninger Flats
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.1898, -118.0876, 3427
LZ Altitude (f): 1033
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

23 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 70 70 ESE 2 3 2735 3427 0 Blue 3
1 AM Wed 70 70 ESE 2 3 2735 3427 0 Blue 3
2 AM Wed 70 70 E 2 2 2735 3427 0 Blue 3
3 AM Wed 70 70 ESE 2 2 2735 3427 0 Blue 3
4 AM Wed 69 69 ESE 2 3 2664 3427 0 Blue 2
5 AM Wed 69 69 ESE 2 3 2664 3427 0 Blue 2
6 AM Wed 70 70 SE 3 4 2735 3427 0 Blue 3
7 AM Wed 71 71 SE 4 5 2802 3427 0 Blue 4
8 AM Wed 73 74 SSE 5 6 3000 3427 0 Blue 7
9 AM Wed 73 76 S 6 7 3132 3427 0 Blue 9
10 AM Wed 73 78 S 7 9 3264 3427 0 Blue 11
11 AM Wed 74 81 SSW 7 10 3462 3427 0 Blue 14
12 Noon Wed 75 84 SSW 8 11 3941 3460 33 Blue 17
1 PM Wed 76 85 SSW 8 12 4176 3538 111 Blue 18
2 PM Wed 77 85 SSW 9 13 4176 3538 111 Blue 18
3 PM Wed 75 82 SSW 9 13 3542 3427 0 Blue 15
4 PM Wed 74 79 SSW 8 13 3330 3427 0 Blue 12
5 PM Wed 73 76 SSW 8 14 3132 3427 0 Blue 9
6 PM Wed 70 71 SSW 7 12 2802 3427 0 Blue 4
7 PM Wed 68 68 S 6 10 2593 3427 0 Blue 1
8 PM Wed 65 65 S 4 8 2431 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 63 63 SSE 4 7 2431 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 60 60 SE 3 5 2431 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 58 58 ESE 3 3 2431 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 61 61 SE 2 3 2431 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 65 65 SE 2 3 2431 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 68 68 SE 2 2 2593 3427 0 Blue 1
3 AM Thu 68 68 SE 2 2 2593 3427 0 Blue 1
4 AM Thu 67 67 ESE 2 2 2515 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 66 66 ESE 1 2 2431 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 68 68 SE 2 3 2593 3427 0 Blue 1
7 AM Thu 70 70 SSE 3 4 2735 3427 0 Blue 3
8 AM Thu 72 73 S 4 5 2934 3427 0 Blue 6
9 AM Thu 72 75 S 5 6 3066 3427 0 Blue 8
10 AM Thu 72 77 SSW 6 7 3198 3427 0 Blue 10
11 AM Thu 72 79 SSW 7 8 3330 3427 0 Blue 12
12 Noon Thu 73 82 SSW 8 10 3542 3427 0 Blue 15
1 PM Thu 74 83 SSW 8 11 3704 3427 0 Blue 16
2 PM Thu 75 83 SSW 8 13 3704 3427 0 Blue 16
3 PM Thu 74 81 SSW 8 13 3462 3427 0 Blue 14
4 PM Thu 74 79 SSW 8 13 3330 3427 0 Blue 12
5 PM Thu 74 77 SSW 8 13 3198 3427 0 Blue 10
6 PM Thu 72 73 SSW 6 10 2934 3427 0 Blue 6
7 PM Thu 70 70 SSW 4 7 2735 3427 0 Blue 3
8 PM Thu 67 67 S 3 5 2515 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 64 64 SSE 2 4 2431 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 60 60 SE 2 3 2431 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 57 57 E 1 2 2431 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 61 61 E 1 2 2431 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 66 66 E 1 2 2431 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 71 71 ENE 1 2 2802 3427 0 Blue 4
3 AM Fri 70 70 ENE 1 1 2735 3427 0 Blue 3
4 AM Fri 70 70 NE 1 1 2735 3427 0 Blue 3
5 AM Fri 70 70 NE 1 1 2735 3427 0 Blue 3
6 AM Fri 72 72 E 2 2 2868 3427 0 Blue 5
7 AM Fri 74 74 SSE 2 3 3000 3427 0 Blue 7
8 AM Fri 76 77 SSW 3 3 3198 3427 0 Blue 10
9 AM Fri 77 80 SSW 4 5 3396 3427 0 Blue 13
10 AM Fri 77 82 SSW 6 7 3542 3427 0 Blue 15
11 AM Fri 78 85 SW 7 8 4176 3538 111 Blue 18
12 Noon Fri 79 88 SW 8 10 6908 4164 737 Blue 21
1 PM Fri 79 88 SW 8 12 6908 4164 737 Blue 21
2 PM Fri 80 88 SW 9 13 6908 4164 737 Blue 21
3 PM Fri 79 86 SW 8 13 4411 3695 268 Blue 19
4 PM Fri 79 84 SSW 8 13 3941 3460 33 Blue 17
5 PM Fri 78 81 SSW 8 13 3462 3427 0 Blue 14
6 PM Fri 75 76 SSW 6 11 3132 3427 0 Blue 9
7 PM Fri 73 73 SSW 5 8 2934 3427 0 Blue 6
8 PM Fri 71 71 SSW 3 6 2802 3427 0 Blue 4
9 PM Fri 68 68 SSE 2 4 2593 3427 0 Blue 1
10 PM Fri 65 65 SE 2 3 2431 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 62 62 ESE 1 2 2431 3427 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst