Detailed Predictions for: Henninger Flats
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.1898, -118.0876, 3427
LZ Altitude (f): 1033
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

21 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 72 72 NE 4 5 2188 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 72 72 NE 4 5 2188 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 72 72 NE 6 8 2188 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 71 71 NE 6 8 2188 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 71 71 NE 6 8 2188 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 70 70 NE 8 9 2188 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 69 69 NE 8 9 2188 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 69 69 NE 8 9 2188 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 71 71 ESE 4 5 2188 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 75 76 ESE 4 5 2405 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 77 80 ESE 4 5 3014 3427 0 Blue 4
11 AM Tue 79 83 SSE 6 10 3410 3427 0 Blue 7
12 Noon Tue 82 87 SSE 6 10 5297 3657 230 Blue 10
1 PM Tue 85 91 SSE 6 10 8189 5997 2570 Blue 14
2 PM Tue 88 93 SSW 6 10 8865 7414 3987 Blue 16
3 PM Tue 91 95 SSW 6 10 9263 8625 5198 Blue 18
4 PM Tue 90 92 SSW 6 10 8666 6725 3298 Blue 15
5 PM Tue 88 89 SSW 1 1 6827 4259 832 Blue 12
6 PM Tue 82 82 SSW 1 1 3278 3427 0 Blue 6
7 PM Tue 77 77 SSW 1 1 2619 3427 0 Blue 1
8 PM Tue 77 77 SSW 1 1 2619 3427 0 Blue 1
9 PM Tue 77 77 SSW 1 1 2619 3427 0 Blue 1
10 PM Tue 76 76 SSW 1 1 2405 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 77 77 N 3 4 2619 3427 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Wed 75 75 N 3 4 2281 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 75 75 N 3 4 2281 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 74 74 NNW 4 5 2188 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 74 74 NNW 4 5 2188 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 74 74 NNW 4 5 2188 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 72 72 NNW 4 5 2188 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 71 71 NNW 4 5 2188 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 71 71 NNW 4 5 2188 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 73 73 NNW 4 5 2188 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 77 78 NNW 4 5 2751 3427 0 Blue 2
10 AM Wed 79 82 NNW 4 5 3278 3427 0 Blue 6
11 AM Wed 81 85 SW 5 9 3975 3427 0 Blue 9
12 Noon Wed 84 89 SW 5 9 6827 4259 832 Blue 12
1 PM Wed 86 91 SW 5 9 8189 5997 2570 Blue 14
2 PM Wed 89 94 SW 6 10 9064 8068 4641 Blue 17
3 PM Wed 92 96 SW 6 10 9461 8823 5396 Blue 19
4 PM Wed 91 93 SW 6 10 8865 7414 3987 Blue 16
5 PM Wed 88 89 SW 6 10 6827 4259 832 Blue 12
6 PM Wed 82 82 SW 6 10 3278 3427 0 Blue 6
7 PM Wed 76 76 SW 6 10 2405 3427 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 75 75 SW 6 10 2281 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 75 75 SW 6 10 2281 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 74 74 SW 6 10 2188 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 75 75 NNW 3 4 2281 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 73 73 NNW 3 4 2188 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 73 73 NNW 3 4 2188 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 72 72 NNW 3 4 2188 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 71 71 NNW 3 4 2188 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 71 71 NNW 3 4 2188 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 69 69 NNW 3 4 2188 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 68 68 NNW 3 4 2188 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 68 68 NNW 3 4 2188 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 69 69 NNW 3 4 2188 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 72 73 NNW 3 4 2188 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 73 75 NNW 3 4 2281 3427 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 75 78 S 6 10 2751 3427 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Thu 77 81 S 6 10 3146 3427 0 Blue 5
1 PM Thu 78 82 S 6 10 3278 3427 0 Blue 6
2 PM Thu 80 84 S 6 10 3670 3427 0 Blue 8
3 PM Thu 82 85 S 6 10 3975 3427 0 Blue 9
4 PM Thu 81 83 S 6 10 3410 3427 0 Blue 7
5 PM Thu 79 80 SSW 9 13 3014 3427 0 Blue 4
6 PM Thu 75 75 SSW 9 13 2281 3427 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 70 70 SSW 9 13 2188 3427 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 70 70 SSW 9 13 2188 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 70 70 SSW 9 13 2188 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 69 69 SSW 9 13 2188 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 70 70 SE 5 6 2188 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 69 69 SE 5 6 2188 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 69 69 SE 5 6 2188 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 68 68 SE 5 6 2188 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 67 67 SE 5 6 2188 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 67 67 SE 5 6 2188 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 66 66 ENE 4 5 2188 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 65 65 ENE 4 5 2188 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 65 65 ENE 4 5 2188 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 67 67 ENE 4 5 2188 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 69 70 ENE 4 5 2188 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 71 74 ENE 4 5 2188 3427 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 73 76 SSW 6 9 2405 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 75 79 SSW 6 9 2883 3427 0 Blue 3
1 PM Fri 77 82 SSW 6 9 3278 3427 0 Blue 6
2 PM Fri 79 83 SSW 10 13 3410 3427 0 Blue 7
3 PM Fri 81 84 SSW 10 13 3670 3427 0 Blue 8
4 PM Fri 80 82 SSW 10 13 3278 3427 0 Blue 6
5 PM Fri 78 79 SW 9 12 2883 3427 0 Blue 3
6 PM Fri 74 74 SW 9 12 2188 3427 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 70 70 SW 9 12 2188 3427 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 70 70 SW 5 8 2188 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 70 70 SW 5 8 2188 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 69 69 SW 5 8 2188 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 69 69 S 4 5 2188 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 68 68 S 4 5 2188 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 68 68 S 4 5 2188 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 68 68 NNE 4 5 2188 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 67 67 NNE 4 5 2188 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 67 67 NNE 4 5 2188 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 66 66 E 4 6 2188 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 65 65 E 4 6 2188 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 65 65 E 4 6 2188 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 66 66 SSE 4 6 2188 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 69 70 SSE 4 6 2188 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 70 72 SSE 4 6 2188 3427 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 71 74 SSW 6 9 2188 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 73 77 SSW 6 9 2619 3427 0 Blue 1
1 PM Sat 74 78 SSW 6 9 2751 3427 0 Blue 2
2 PM Sat 76 80 SSW 9 12 3014 3427 0 Blue 4
3 PM Sat 78 81 SSW 9 12 3146 3427 0 Blue 5
4 PM Sat 77 79 SSW 9 12 2883 3427 0 Blue 3
5 PM Sat 76 76 SW 9 12 2405 3427 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 72 72 SW 9 12 2188 3427 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 68 68 SW 9 12 2188 3427 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 68 68 WSW 6 9 2188 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 68 68 WSW 6 9 2188 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 67 67 WSW 6 9 2188 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 67 67 S 5 8 2188 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 66 66 S 5 8 2188 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 66 66 S 5 8 2188 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 65 65 S 5 8 2188 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 65 65 S 5 8 2188 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 65 65 S 5 8 2188 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 64 64 SE 4 5 2188 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 63 63 SE 4 5 2188 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 63 63 SE 4 5 2188 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 64 64 S 4 6 2188 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 67 68 S 4 6 2188 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 68 70 S 4 6 2188 3427 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 70 73 SSW 8 10 2188 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 72 76 SSW 8 10 2405 3427 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 73 77 SSW 8 10 2619 3427 0 Blue 1
2 PM Sun 75 79 SW 10 13 2883 3427 0 Blue 3
3 PM Sun 77 80 SW 10 13 3014 3427 0 Blue 4
4 PM Sun 76 78 SW 10 13 2751 3427 0 Blue 2
5 PM Sun 74 75 SW 10 13 2281 3427 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 70 70 SW 10 13 2188 3427 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 66 66 SW 10 13 2188 3427 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 66 66 SW 6 9 2188 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 66 66 SW 6 9 2188 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 65 65 SW 6 9 2188 3427 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst