Detailed Predictions for: Horse Canyon
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 32.7747, -116.477, 4540
LZ Altitude (f): 3300
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

21 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 71 71 ENE 12 20 2645 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 70 70 ENE 12 20 2569 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 70 70 ENE 13 21 2569 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 69 69 ENE 14 24 2569 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 70 70 ENE 14 25 2569 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 69 69 ENE 16 26 2569 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 69 69 ENE 16 25 2569 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 69 69 ENE 14 24 2569 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 74 74 ENE 13 21 3046 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 80 82 ENE 12 21 6382 4540 0 Blue 5
10 AM Tue 84 87 ENE 12 20 8964 7727 3187 Blue 10
11 AM Tue 86 91 E 11 19 9706 9129 4589 Blue 14
12 Noon Tue 87 93 E 10 17 9955 9528 4988 Blue 16
1 PM Tue 88 94 E 8 14 10079 9681 5141 Blue 17
2 PM Tue 89 95 E 8 14 10487 9805 5265 Blue 18
3 PM Tue 91 95 E 5 11 10487 9805 5265 Blue 18
4 PM Tue 90 92 E 6 12 9830 9329 4789 Blue 15
5 PM Tue 89 90 W 5 11 9568 8928 4388 Blue 13
6 PM Tue 86 86 WNW 5 11 8761 7039 2499 Blue 9
7 PM Tue 79 79 NNE 6 12 4071 4540 0 Blue 2
8 PM Tue 76 76 ENE 6 12 3313 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 74 74 ENE 6 12 3046 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 73 73 ENE 5 11 2912 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 72 72 NE 5 11 2779 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 72 72 NE 5 11 2779 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 71 71 NE 5 11 2645 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 71 71 NNE 5 11 2645 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 71 71 NNE 5 11 2645 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 71 71 NNE 6 12 2645 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 71 71 NNE 6 12 2645 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 67 67 NE 5 11 2569 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 68 68 NE 4 10 2569 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 73 73 ENE 4 10 2912 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 81 83 E 5 10 7122 4540 0 Blue 6
10 AM Wed 86 89 SE 5 12 9367 8727 4187 Blue 12
11 AM Wed 89 94 S 6 13 10079 9681 5141 Blue 17
12 Noon Wed 91 97 SSW 6 12 10896 10053 5513 Blue 20
1 PM Wed 92 98 W 6 12 11099 10441 5901 Blue 21
2 PM Wed 91 96 WNW 6 13 10692 9929 5389 Blue 19
3 PM Wed 92 96 WNW 9 16 10692 9929 5389 Blue 19
4 PM Wed 91 93 NW 12 20 9955 9528 4988 Blue 16
5 PM Wed 89 90 NW 13 23 9568 8928 4388 Blue 13
6 PM Wed 86 86 NW 13 21 8761 7039 2499 Blue 9
7 PM Wed 78 78 NNW 11 19 3762 4540 0 Blue 1
8 PM Wed 74 74 N 10 18 3046 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 71 71 NNW 10 18 2645 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 70 70 NNW 10 18 2569 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 69 69 NNW 11 19 2569 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 69 69 NNW 11 19 2569 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 68 68 NNW 11 19 2569 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 69 69 NNW 11 19 2569 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 68 68 NNW 12 20 2569 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 69 69 NNW 12 20 2569 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 68 68 NNW 12 20 2569 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 68 68 NNW 11 19 2569 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 69 69 NNW 11 19 2569 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 73 73 NNW 11 18 2912 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 81 82 NNW 11 19 6382 4540 0 Blue 5
10 AM Thu 84 87 NW 11 19 8964 7727 3187 Blue 10
11 AM Thu 87 91 NW 12 20 9706 9129 4589 Blue 14
12 Noon Thu 89 94 NW 12 20 10079 9681 5141 Blue 17
1 PM Thu 90 95 NW 13 21 10487 9805 5265 Blue 18
2 PM Thu 89 94 NW 13 23 10079 9681 5141 Blue 17
3 PM Thu 90 94 NW 13 23 10079 9681 5141 Blue 17
4 PM Thu 89 91 NW 13 23 9706 9129 4589 Blue 14
5 PM Thu 87 88 NW 13 21 9166 8382 3842 Blue 11
6 PM Thu 84 84 NW 11 19 7820 5537 997 Blue 7
7 PM Thu 74 74 NNW 9 16 3046 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 70 70 NNW 6 13 2569 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 68 68 NNW 6 12 2569 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 66 66 NNW 5 11 2569 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 65 65 NNW 5 11 2569 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 65 65 N 4 10 2569 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 64 64 NE 3 9 2569 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 65 65 E 3 8 2569 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 64 64 E 4 9 2569 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 65 65 E 5 11 2569 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 65 65 E 6 6 2569 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 64 64 E 6 6 2569 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 65 65 E 6 6 2569 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 69 69 E 6 5 2569 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 77 78 E 6 5 3762 4540 0 Blue 1
10 AM Fri 81 83 E 6 5 7122 4540 0 Blue 6
11 AM Fri 84 88 ESE 9 16 9166 8382 3842 Blue 11
12 Noon Fri 86 90 ESE 9 16 9568 8928 4388 Blue 13
1 PM Fri 87 92 ESE 9 16 9830 9329 4789 Blue 15
2 PM Fri 86 90 SE 9 18 9568 8928 4388 Blue 13
3 PM Fri 87 90 SE 9 18 9568 8928 4388 Blue 13
4 PM Fri 86 88 SE 9 18 9166 8382 3842 Blue 11
5 PM Fri 84 85 W 8 17 8485 6312 1772 Blue 8
6 PM Fri 81 81 W 8 17 5592 4540 0 Blue 4
7 PM Fri 72 72 W 8 17 2779 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 69 69 NNW 4 6 2569 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 66 66 NNW 4 6 2569 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 65 65 NNW 4 6 2569 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 64 64 NW 2 3 2569 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 64 64 NW 2 3 2569 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 64 64 NW 2 3 2569 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 64 64 N 2 3 2569 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 63 63 N 2 3 2569 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 64 64 N 2 3 2569 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 64 64 N 3 4 2569 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 63 63 N 3 4 2569 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 64 64 N 3 4 2569 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 68 68 ENE 2 4 2569 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 76 77 ENE 2 4 3450 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 80 83 ENE 2 4 7122 4540 0 Blue 6
11 AM Sat 82 86 SW 6 14 8761 7039 2499 Blue 9
12 Noon Sat 84 88 SW 6 14 9166 8382 3842 Blue 11
1 PM Sat 85 89 SW 6 14 9367 8727 4187 Blue 12
2 PM Sat 84 88 W 9 19 9166 8382 3842 Blue 11
3 PM Sat 85 88 W 9 19 9166 8382 3842 Blue 11
4 PM Sat 84 86 W 9 19 8761 7039 2499 Blue 9
5 PM Sat 82 82 W 9 17 6382 4540 0 Blue 5
6 PM Sat 79 79 W 9 17 4071 4540 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sat 70 70 W 9 17 2569 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 67 67 NNW 5 6 2569 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 64 64 NNW 5 6 2569 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 63 63 NNW 5 6 2569 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 62 62 N 4 5 2569 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 62 62 N 4 5 2569 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 62 62 N 4 5 2569 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 62 62 NNW 3 5 2569 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 61 61 NNW 3 5 2569 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 62 62 NNW 3 5 2569 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 62 62 NNE 4 6 2569 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 61 61 NNE 4 6 2569 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 62 62 NNE 4 6 2569 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 66 66 NNE 3 6 2569 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 75 76 NNE 3 6 3313 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 79 81 NNE 3 6 5592 4540 0 Blue 4
11 AM Sun 82 86 N 5 16 8761 7039 2499 Blue 9
12 Noon Sun 84 88 N 5 16 9166 8382 3842 Blue 11
1 PM Sun 85 90 N 5 16 9568 8928 4388 Blue 13
2 PM Sun 84 88 N 9 18 9166 8382 3842 Blue 11
3 PM Sun 85 88 N 9 18 9166 8382 3842 Blue 11
4 PM Sun 84 86 N 9 18 8761 7039 2499 Blue 9
5 PM Sun 82 83 NW 10 18 7122 4540 0 Blue 6
6 PM Sun 79 79 NW 10 18 4071 4540 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sun 70 70 NW 10 18 2569 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 66 66 NNW 5 8 2569 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 64 64 NNW 5 8 2569 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 62 62 NNW 5 8 2569 4540 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst