Detailed Predictions for: Horse Canyon
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 32.7747, -116.477, 4540
LZ Altitude (f): 3300
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 5 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Tue 55 55 NE 17 27 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 54 54 NE 17 27 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 54 54 NE 17 27 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 55 55 NE 17 27 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 54 54 NE 17 27 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 54 54 NE 17 27 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 54 54 NE 18 28 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 55 55 NE 17 27 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 59 59 NE 16 26 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 64 65 NE 14 24 3181 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 67 69 ENE 13 23 4842 4540 0 Blue 2
11 AM Tue 69 72 ENE 12 20 7796 4804 264 Blue 5
12 Noon Tue 70 73 ENE 11 19 8015 5997 1457 Blue 6
1 PM Tue 71 73 E 10 17 8015 5997 1457 Blue 6
2 PM Tue 72 73 ENE 9 16 8015 5997 1457 Blue 6
3 PM Tue 70 70 ENE 6 12 6109 4540 0 Blue 3
4 PM Tue 67 67 NE 3 8 3587 4540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 64 64 NE 8 13 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 59 59 NE 11 19 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 58 58 NE 13 23 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 57 57 NE 14 24 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 57 57 NE 13 23 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 56 56 NE 12 20 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 55 55 NE 11 18 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 55 55 NE 9 17 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 54 54 NE 8 14 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 54 54 NNE 6 12 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 53 53 NNE 5 11 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 53 53 NNE 5 11 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 52 52 NNE 4 10 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 53 53 NNE 4 10 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 53 53 NNE 4 10 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 58 58 NNW 4 10 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 63 64 W 4 9 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 68 70 SW 4 10 6109 4540 0 Blue 3
11 AM Wed 71 73 SW 6 12 8015 5997 1457 Blue 6
12 Noon Wed 72 74 WSW 9 16 8274 7184 2644 Blue 7
1 PM Wed 72 74 W 11 18 8274 7184 2644 Blue 7
2 PM Wed 71 72 W 10 18 7796 4804 264 Blue 5
3 PM Wed 69 69 WNW 10 17 4842 4540 0 Blue 2
4 PM Wed 66 66 WNW 8 14 3384 4540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 62 62 NW 6 13 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 58 58 NNW 5 11 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 55 55 NNW 5 10 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 53 53 NNW 4 10 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 53 53 NNW 4 10 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 52 52 NNW 5 11 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 52 52 NNW 8 14 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 51 51 NNW 10 17 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 50 50 NNW 11 19 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 50 50 NNW 11 19 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 50 50 NNW 11 19 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 49 49 NNW 10 18 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 48 48 NNW 10 17 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 48 48 NNW 10 17 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 49 49 NW 10 18 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 52 52 NW 10 18 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 56 57 WNW 11 18 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 59 61 WNW 11 19 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 61 63 WNW 11 19 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 62 64 W 12 20 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 62 64 W 12 20 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 62 63 W 12 20 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 60 60 W 12 20 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 58 58 W 11 19 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 54 54 WNW 10 17 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 51 51 NNW 8 14 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 48 48 N 6 13 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 47 47 N 6 12 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 47 47 NNW 8 13 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 47 47 NNW 8 14 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 47 47 NNW 10 17 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 46 46 NNW 11 19 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 46 46 NNW 12 20 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 46 46 NNW 12 20 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 45 45 NNW 11 19 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 44 44 NNW 10 18 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 43 43 NNW 10 18 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 42 42 NNW 10 18 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 43 43 NNW 10 18 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 46 46 NNW 10 18 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 51 52 NNW 10 18 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 56 58 N 8 14 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 59 61 N 8 14 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 60 63 N 8 14 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 61 63 ENE 14 24 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 61 62 ENE 14 24 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 60 60 ENE 14 24 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 58 58 NE 16 26 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 55 55 NE 16 26 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 51 51 NE 16 26 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 48 48 ENE 17 27 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 47 47 ENE 17 27 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 47 47 ENE 17 27 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 47 47 ENE 16 26 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 47 47 ENE 16 26 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 47 47 ENE 16 26 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 46 46 NE 16 25 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 46 46 NE 16 25 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 45 45 NE 16 25 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 45 45 NE 16 25 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 44 44 NE 16 25 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 44 44 NE 16 25 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 45 45 NE 14 25 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 48 48 NE 14 25 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 52 53 NE 14 25 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 56 58 NE 16 25 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 58 60 NE 16 25 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 59 61 NE 16 25 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 59 61 NE 16 25 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 58 59 NE 16 25 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 57 57 NE 16 25 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 55 55 NE 14 25 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 53 53 NE 14 25 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 50 50 NE 14 25 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 48 48 NE 16 25 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 47 47 NE 16 25 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 48 48 NE 16 25 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 48 48 NE 14 24 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 48 48 NE 14 24 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 48 48 NE 14 24 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 48 48 NE 16 25 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 48 48 NE 16 25 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 48 48 NE 16 25 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 48 48 NE 14 24 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 47 47 NE 14 24 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 47 47 NE 14 24 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 48 48 NE 14 24 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 52 52 NE 14 24 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 56 57 NE 14 24 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 61 63 NE 14 24 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 63 65 NE 14 24 3181 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 65 67 NE 14 24 3587 4540 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 66 68 NE 13 21 3966 4540 0 Blue 1
2 PM Sun 65 66 NE 13 21 3384 4540 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 64 64 NE 13 21 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 62 62 NE 12 20 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 58 58 NE 12 20 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 55 55 NE 12 20 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 52 52 NE 11 19 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 52 52 NE 11 19 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 52 52 NE 11 19 2989 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 52 52 NE 11 19 2989 4540 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst