Detailed Predictions for: Horse Canyon
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 32.7747, -116.477, 4540
LZ Altitude (f): 3300
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 17 APR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Wed 55 55 N 9 16 3143 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 54 54 NNW 9 16 3143 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 54 54 N 9 16 3143 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 54 54 N 9 17 3143 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 53 53 N 9 16 3143 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 53 53 N 9 16 3143 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 54 54 N 9 16 3143 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 55 55 N 9 16 3143 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 60 61 N 5 11 3143 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 67 69 NNW 4 9 5288 4540 0 Blue 3
10 AM Wed 72 76 WNW 4 9 7803 7175 2635 Blue 10
11 AM Wed 75 82 WSW 6 12 9863 8991 4451 Blue 16
12 Noon Wed 76 84 W 9 17 10287 9655 5115 Blue 18
1 PM Wed 78 86 W 10 18 10815 9943 5403 Blue 20
2 PM Wed 77 83 W 12 20 9965 9325 4785 Blue 17
3 PM Wed 78 82 W 12 20 9863 8991 4451 Blue 16
4 PM Wed 76 79 W 12 21 9053 7737 3197 Blue 13
5 PM Wed 74 75 WNW 12 20 7368 6574 2034 Blue 9
6 PM Wed 72 72 NW 11 18 6642 5277 737 Blue 6
7 PM Wed 64 64 NNW 9 17 3143 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 60 60 NNW 9 14 3143 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 58 58 NNW 8 14 3143 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 56 56 NNW 8 14 3143 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 56 56 NNW 8 14 3143 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 54 54 NNW 8 14 3143 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 54 54 NNW 8 14 3143 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 54 54 NNW 8 14 3143 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 53 53 NNW 8 13 3143 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 53 53 NNW 6 12 3143 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 53 53 NNW 5 11 3143 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 54 54 NNW 3 9 3143 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 55 55 NW 2 6 3143 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 59 59 WNW 1 5 3143 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 65 66 WNW 3 8 4077 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 69 71 W 5 11 5961 4710 170 Blue 5
11 AM Thu 71 74 WSW 8 14 7277 5905 1365 Blue 8
12 Noon Thu 73 77 WSW 10 17 8271 7266 2726 Blue 11
1 PM Thu 73 77 WSW 11 19 8271 7266 2726 Blue 11
2 PM Thu 73 74 W 11 19 7277 5905 1365 Blue 8
3 PM Thu 73 74 W 12 20 7277 5905 1365 Blue 8
4 PM Thu 72 72 W 11 19 6642 5277 737 Blue 6
5 PM Thu 71 71 W 11 18 5961 4710 170 Blue 5
6 PM Thu 67 67 W 9 17 4414 4540 0 Blue 1
7 PM Thu 62 62 WNW 8 14 3143 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 58 58 NW 6 12 3143 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 56 56 NW 5 11 3143 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 54 54 NNW 4 10 3143 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 54 54 NNW 4 10 3143 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 52 52 NNW 4 10 3143 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 51 51 NNW 5 10 3143 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 50 50 NNW 5 11 3143 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 49 49 NNW 5 10 3143 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 48 48 NW 4 10 3143 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 49 49 NW 4 10 3143 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 49 49 NW 4 9 3143 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 51 51 WNW 4 9 3143 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 54 55 W 4 10 3143 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 59 62 W 6 12 3143 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 64 68 W 9 16 4735 4540 0 Blue 2
11 AM Fri 69 75 W 11 18 7368 6574 2034 Blue 9
12 Noon Fri 71 78 W 12 20 8713 7357 2817 Blue 12
1 PM Fri 72 79 W 12 21 9053 7737 3197 Blue 13
2 PM Fri 71 78 W 13 23 8713 7357 2817 Blue 12
3 PM Fri 71 76 WNW 14 24 7803 7175 2635 Blue 10
4 PM Fri 70 73 WNW 16 26 7186 5591 1051 Blue 7
5 PM Fri 68 69 WNW 17 26 5288 4540 0 Blue 3
6 PM Fri 64 64 WNW 16 25 3143 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 59 59 NW 13 23 3143 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 55 55 NW 12 20 3143 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 54 54 NW 11 19 3143 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 52 52 NW 11 19 3143 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 52 52 NW 11 19 3143 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 51 51 NW 11 18 3143 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 50 50 NW 10 18 3143 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 49 49 NW 10 17 3143 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 48 48 NW 9 16 3143 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 48 48 NW 9 16 3143 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 48 48 NNW 9 16 3143 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 49 49 NNW 9 16 3143 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 51 51 NNW 9 16 3143 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 54 55 NW 6 13 3143 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 60 62 NW 6 13 3143 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 66 70 NW 6 13 5619 4540 0 Blue 4
11 AM Sat 71 77 W 10 17 8271 7266 2726 Blue 11
12 Noon Sat 74 81 W 10 17 9723 8651 4111 Blue 15
1 PM Sat 76 83 W 10 17 9965 9325 4785 Blue 17
2 PM Sat 76 82 W 11 19 9863 8991 4451 Blue 16
3 PM Sat 76 81 W 11 19 9723 8651 4111 Blue 15
4 PM Sat 76 79 W 11 19 9053 7737 3197 Blue 13
5 PM Sat 73 74 WNW 11 19 7277 5905 1365 Blue 8
6 PM Sat 69 69 WNW 11 19 5288 4540 0 Blue 3
7 PM Sat 64 64 WNW 11 19 3143 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 60 60 NNW 8 14 3143 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 58 58 NNW 8 14 3143 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 57 57 NNW 8 14 3143 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 56 56 NNW 6 13 3143 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 55 55 NNW 6 13 3143 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 55 55 NNW 6 13 3143 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 54 54 N 8 14 3143 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 54 54 N 8 14 3143 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 53 53 N 8 14 3143 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 54 54 N 6 13 3143 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 56 56 N 6 13 3143 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 59 59 N 6 13 3143 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 63 64 ENE 6 12 3143 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 67 70 ENE 6 12 5619 4540 0 Blue 4
10 AM Sun 72 77 ENE 6 12 8271 7266 2726 Blue 11
11 AM Sun 76 83 E 11 19 9965 9325 4785 Blue 17
12 Noon Sun 78 86 E 11 19 10815 9943 5403 Blue 20
1 PM Sun 80 88 E 11 19 11447 10491 5951 Blue 22
2 PM Sun 80 87 E 13 21 11079 10214 5674 Blue 21
3 PM Sun 80 85 E 13 21 10552 9841 5301 Blue 19
4 PM Sun 79 82 E 13 21 9863 8991 4451 Blue 16
5 PM Sun 77 78 W 10 18 8713 7357 2817 Blue 12
6 PM Sun 73 73 W 10 18 7186 5591 1051 Blue 7
7 PM Sun 68 68 W 10 18 4735 4540 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sun 63 63 NW 8 14 3143 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 61 61 NW 8 14 3143 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 59 59 NW 8 14 3143 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 58 58 NNW 6 13 3143 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 57 57 NNW 6 13 3143 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 56 56 NNW 6 13 3143 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 55 55 N 6 13 3143 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 54 54 N 6 13 3143 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 53 53 N 6 13 3143 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 54 54 NNE 5 11 3143 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 54 54 NNE 5 11 3143 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 56 56 NNE 5 11 3143 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 58 59 E 5 11 3143 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 63 66 E 5 11 4077 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 68 72 E 5 11 6642 5277 737 Blue 6
11 AM Mon 72 78 SSW 10 17 8713 7357 2817 Blue 12
12 Noon Mon 75 82 SSW 10 17 9863 8991 4451 Blue 16
1 PM Mon 76 83 SSW 10 17 9965 9325 4785 Blue 17
2 PM Mon 76 83 WSW 13 23 9965 9325 4785 Blue 17
3 PM Mon 76 81 WSW 13 23 9723 8651 4111 Blue 15
4 PM Mon 74 77 WSW 13 23 8271 7266 2726 Blue 11
5 PM Mon 72 73 W 13 21 7186 5591 1051 Blue 7
6 PM Mon 67 67 W 13 21 4414 4540 0 Blue 1
7 PM Mon 62 62 W 13 21 3143 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 58 58 NW 10 18 3143 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 55 55 NW 10 18 3143 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 53 53 NW 10 18 3143 4540 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst