Detailed Predictions for: Horse Canyon
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 32.7747, -116.477, 4540
LZ Altitude (f): 3300
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

23 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 68 68 WNW 3 8 4446 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 66 66 W 4 8 4446 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 63 63 W 4 8 4446 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 63 63 SW 3 7 4446 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 62 62 SSW 3 6 4446 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 61 61 SSE 2 5 4446 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 64 64 S 3 5 4446 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 68 68 SW 4 5 4446 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 72 72 WSW 4 5 4446 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 74 75 WSW 5 6 4687 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 77 81 SW 6 6 13157 9142 4602 Blue 6
11 AM Wed 80 87 SW 6 7 16059 14600 10060 Blue 11
12 Noon Wed 81 89 WSW 10 11 16601 15455 10915 White 13
1 PM Wed 81 89 WSW 13 15 16601 15455 10915 White 13
2 PM Wed 82 90 WSW 16 19 16805 15869 11329 White 14
3 PM Wed 81 87 W 15 17 16059 14600 10060 Blue 11
4 PM Wed 79 83 W 13 15 14302 11660 7120 Blue 7
5 PM Wed 77 79 W 12 14 10460 6180 1640 Blue 4
6 PM Wed 75 76 W 11 14 6287 4540 0 Blue 1
7 PM Wed 73 73 W 9 15 4446 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 72 72 W 8 15 4446 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 69 69 WNW 7 14 4446 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 67 67 WNW 6 12 4446 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 64 64 WNW 5 11 4446 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 63 63 WNW 5 10 4446 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 61 61 WNW 4 10 4446 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 59 59 WNW 4 9 4446 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 58 58 WNW 4 9 4446 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 58 58 WNW 4 8 4446 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 57 57 WNW 4 8 4446 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 62 62 W 4 7 4446 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 66 66 W 4 6 4446 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 71 73 WSW 4 5 4446 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 74 78 WSW 6 7 9316 4685 145 Blue 3
10 AM Thu 77 83 WSW 8 9 14302 11660 7120 Blue 7
11 AM Thu 80 88 WSW 9 11 16398 15032 10492 White 12
12 Noon Thu 81 90 WSW 11 12 16805 15869 11329 White 14
1 PM Thu 82 91 WSW 11 13 17009 16381 11841 White 15
2 PM Thu 82 90 W 13 15 16805 15869 11329 White 14
3 PM Thu 81 88 W 12 14 16398 15032 10492 White 12
4 PM Thu 79 84 W 12 14 14747 12857 8317 Blue 8
5 PM Thu 77 80 W 12 14 11968 7853 3313 Blue 5
6 PM Thu 75 76 W 10 14 6287 4540 0 Blue 1
7 PM Thu 74 74 W 8 14 4446 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 73 73 WNW 7 15 4446 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 72 72 WNW 6 13 4446 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 71 71 WNW 6 12 4446 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 69 69 NW 5 11 4446 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 66 66 WNW 4 9 4446 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 62 62 WNW 3 7 4446 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 58 58 WNW 2 6 4446 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 58 58 WNW 2 5 4446 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 57 57 WNW 2 5 4446 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 57 57 NW 2 5 4446 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 62 62 WNW 2 4 4446 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 68 68 WNW 3 4 4446 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 74 76 W 4 4 6287 4540 0 Blue 1
9 AM Fri 77 81 W 5 6 13157 9142 4602 Blue 6
10 AM Fri 81 87 W 6 7 16059 14600 10060 Blue 11
11 AM Fri 85 93 WSW 7 8 17415 17386 12846 White 17
12 Noon Fri 85 94 W 9 10 17618 17618 13078 White 18
1 PM Fri 86 95 W 10 12 17819 17819 13279 White 19
2 PM Fri 87 95 W 12 14 17819 17819 13279 White 19
3 PM Fri 85 92 W 12 14 17213 16891 12351 White 16
4 PM Fri 83 88 W 12 13 16398 15032 10492 White 12
5 PM Fri 82 85 W 11 13 15182 13707 9167 Blue 9
6 PM Fri 80 81 W 10 13 13157 9142 4602 Blue 6
7 PM Fri 78 78 WNW 8 14 9316 4685 145 Blue 3
8 PM Fri 76 76 WNW 6 14 6287 4540 0 Blue 1
9 PM Fri 74 74 WNW 6 12 4446 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 73 73 WNW 4 10 4446 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 71 71 NW 4 8 4446 4540 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst