Detailed Predictions for: Horse Canyon
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 32.7747, -116.477, 4540
LZ Altitude (f): 3300
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

19 JUN 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 60 60 WNW 3 9 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 58 58 NW 3 8 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 57 57 NW 3 8 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 57 57 NW 3 8 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 57 57 NNW 3 8 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 56 56 NNW 3 8 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 58 58 NNW 3 8 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 60 60 NW 3 8 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 66 68 WNW 3 8 3860 4540 0 Blue 3
9 AM Wed 74 78 W 4 9 6360 5145 605 Blue 13
10 AM Wed 78 84 W 5 11 8010 7349 2809 Blue 19
11 AM Wed 84 92 W 8 13 11708 11042 6502 Blue 27
12 Noon Wed 86 95 W 9 16 13047 11636 7096 Blue 30
1 PM Wed 87 96 W 9 16 13323 11899 7359 Blue 31
2 PM Wed 88 96 W 10 18 13323 11899 7359 Blue 31
3 PM Wed 87 94 W 10 18 12235 11373 6833 Blue 29
4 PM Wed 86 91 W 10 18 11442 10968 6428 Blue 26
5 PM Wed 82 85 W 10 17 9667 7546 3006 Blue 20
6 PM Wed 79 80 WNW 9 16 7176 5919 1379 Blue 15
7 PM Wed 75 75 WNW 8 14 5153 4790 250 Blue 10
8 PM Wed 69 69 NW 6 12 3945 4540 0 Blue 4
9 PM Wed 66 66 NW 5 11 3620 4540 0 Blue 1
10 PM Wed 64 64 NW 4 10 3370 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 62 62 NW 4 9 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 61 61 NW 4 9 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 60 60 NW 3 9 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 59 59 NW 3 8 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 58 58 NNW 3 8 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 60 60 NNW 3 8 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 59 59 NNW 3 8 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 60 60 NNW 3 6 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 64 64 WNW 2 6 3370 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 71 73 W 3 8 4869 4540 0 Blue 8
9 AM Thu 77 80 W 3 9 7176 5919 1379 Blue 15
10 AM Thu 82 88 WSW 4 10 10986 9464 4924 Blue 23
11 AM Thu 86 94 SW 6 12 12235 11373 6833 Blue 29
12 Noon Thu 88 97 WSW 8 13 13495 12160 7620 Blue 32
1 PM Thu 90 99 W 8 14 13976 13268 8728 Blue 34
2 PM Thu 90 98 W 9 16 13731 12788 8248 Blue 33
3 PM Thu 90 97 W 9 16 13495 12160 7620 Blue 32
4 PM Thu 88 93 W 9 16 11972 11116 6576 Blue 28
5 PM Thu 86 89 W 9 16 11060 10492 5952 Blue 24
6 PM Thu 81 82 WNW 8 13 7573 6841 2301 Blue 17
7 PM Thu 76 76 WNW 6 12 5510 4865 325 Blue 11
8 PM Thu 72 72 WNW 5 11 4795 4540 0 Blue 7
9 PM Thu 69 69 WNW 4 10 3945 4540 0 Blue 4
10 PM Thu 66 66 NW 4 9 3620 4540 0 Blue 1
11 PM Thu 65 65 NW 3 9 3446 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 64 64 NW 3 8 3370 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 63 63 NW 3 8 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 63 63 NW 2 6 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 62 62 N 2 6 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 61 61 NE 2 5 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 62 62 ENE 2 6 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 64 64 ENE 2 6 3370 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 68 68 E 2 5 3860 4540 0 Blue 3
8 AM Fri 73 75 E 2 6 5153 4790 250 Blue 10
9 AM Fri 80 83 ESE 2 6 7769 7152 2612 Blue 18
10 AM Fri 87 93 SE 3 9 11972 11116 6576 Blue 28
11 AM Fri 93 101 SSE 4 10 15168 13651 9111 Blue 36
12 Noon Fri 96 105 S 5 11 16688 15502 10962 White 40
1 PM Fri 97 106 SW 6 12 16889 16039 11499 White 41
2 PM Fri 97 105 WSW 6 13 16688 15502 10962 White 40
3 PM Fri 97 104 W 8 13 16487 14946 10406 White 39
4 PM Fri 96 101 W 8 13 15168 13651 9111 Blue 36
5 PM Fri 93 95 W 6 12 13047 11636 7096 Blue 30
6 PM Fri 89 90 W 5 11 11174 10814 6274 Blue 25
7 PM Fri 84 84 W 4 9 8010 7349 2809 Blue 19
8 PM Fri 79 79 W 3 8 6878 5480 940 Blue 14
9 PM Fri 76 76 W 2 6 5510 4865 325 Blue 11
10 PM Fri 73 73 W 2 6 4869 4540 0 Blue 8
11 PM Fri 72 72 WSW 2 6 4795 4540 0 Blue 7
12 Midnight Sat 70 70 SW 2 6 4444 4540 0 Blue 5
1 AM Sat 69 69 S 2 5 3945 4540 0 Blue 4
2 AM Sat 69 69 SSE 2 5 3945 4540 0 Blue 4
3 AM Sat 69 69 SE 1 5 3945 4540 0 Blue 4
4 AM Sat 69 69 E 2 5 3945 4540 0 Blue 4
5 AM Sat 71 71 ESE 2 5 4552 4540 0 Blue 6
6 AM Sat 73 73 ESE 2 5 4869 4540 0 Blue 8
7 AM Sat 77 77 ESE 2 5 5954 5009 469 Blue 12
8 AM Sat 81 82 E 3 8 7573 6841 2301 Blue 17
9 AM Sat 86 89 E 3 8 11060 10492 5952 Blue 24
10 AM Sat 90 95 E 3 8 13047 11636 7096 Blue 30
11 AM Sat 95 102 E 6 12 15727 13884 9344 Blue 37
12 Noon Sat 97 105 E 6 12 16688 15502 10962 White 40
1 PM Sat 99 108 E 6 12 17283 16881 12341 White 43
2 PM Sat 99 107 WSW 6 13 17086 16557 12017 White 42
3 PM Sat 99 105 WSW 6 13 16688 15502 10962 White 40
4 PM Sat 98 102 WSW 6 13 15727 13884 9344 Blue 37
5 PM Sat 95 97 W 6 13 13495 12160 7620 Blue 32
6 PM Sat 91 92 W 6 13 11708 11042 6502 Blue 27
7 PM Sat 86 86 W 6 13 10567 7743 3203 Blue 21
8 PM Sat 82 82 W 4 9 7573 6841 2301 Blue 17
9 PM Sat 79 79 W 4 9 6878 5480 940 Blue 14
10 PM Sat 77 77 W 4 9 5954 5009 469 Blue 12
11 PM Sat 75 75 W 3 8 5153 4790 250 Blue 10
12 Midnight Sun 74 74 W 3 8 5016 4548 8 Blue 9
1 AM Sun 73 73 W 3 8 4869 4540 0 Blue 8
2 AM Sun 73 73 NW 2 6 4869 4540 0 Blue 8
3 AM Sun 72 72 NW 2 6 4795 4540 0 Blue 7
4 AM Sun 71 71 NW 2 6 4552 4540 0 Blue 6
5 AM Sun 72 72 NW 2 6 4795 4540 0 Blue 7
6 AM Sun 73 73 NW 2 6 4869 4540 0 Blue 8
7 AM Sun 76 76 NW 2 6 5510 4865 325 Blue 11
8 AM Sun 81 82 W 2 5 7573 6841 2301 Blue 17
9 AM Sun 86 89 W 2 5 11060 10492 5952 Blue 24
10 AM Sun 92 97 W 2 5 13495 12160 7620 Blue 32
11 AM Sun 96 103 WNW 5 11 16287 14366 9826 White 38
12 Noon Sun 99 107 WNW 5 11 17086 16557 12017 White 42
1 PM Sun 100 108 WNW 5 11 17283 16881 12341 White 43
2 PM Sun 99 106 NW 8 14 16889 16039 11499 White 41
3 PM Sun 98 104 NW 8 14 16487 14946 10406 White 39
4 PM Sun 96 100 NW 8 14 14585 13435 8895 Blue 35
5 PM Sun 93 95 WNW 9 16 13047 11636 7096 Blue 30
6 PM Sun 89 90 WNW 9 16 11174 10814 6274 Blue 25
7 PM Sun 84 84 WNW 9 16 8010 7349 2809 Blue 19
8 PM Sun 80 80 WNW 6 12 7176 5919 1379 Blue 15
9 PM Sun 77 77 WNW 6 12 5954 5009 469 Blue 12
10 PM Sun 75 75 WNW 6 12 5153 4790 250 Blue 10
11 PM Sun 74 74 WNW 4 9 5016 4548 8 Blue 9
12 Midnight Mon 73 73 WNW 4 9 4869 4540 0 Blue 8
1 AM Mon 72 72 WNW 4 9 4795 4540 0 Blue 7
2 AM Mon 72 72 WNW 3 8 4795 4540 0 Blue 7
3 AM Mon 71 71 WNW 3 8 4552 4540 0 Blue 6
4 AM Mon 70 70 WNW 3 8 4444 4540 0 Blue 5
5 AM Mon 71 71 WNW 3 8 4552 4540 0 Blue 6
6 AM Mon 73 73 WNW 3 8 4869 4540 0 Blue 8
7 AM Mon 76 76 WNW 3 8 5510 4865 325 Blue 11
8 AM Mon 80 81 NNW 3 8 7374 6335 1795 Blue 16
9 AM Mon 85 88 NNW 3 8 10986 9464 4924 Blue 23
10 AM Mon 90 95 NNW 3 8 13047 11636 7096 Blue 30
11 AM Mon 95 102 N 5 11 15727 13884 9344 Blue 37
12 Noon Mon 97 106 N 5 11 16889 16039 11499 White 41
1 PM Mon 98 107 N 5 11 17086 16557 12017 White 42
2 PM Mon 98 106 WNW 9 16 16889 16039 11499 White 41
3 PM Mon 97 104 WNW 9 16 16487 14946 10406 White 39
4 PM Mon 95 100 WNW 9 16 14585 13435 8895 Blue 35
5 PM Mon 92 94 WNW 9 17 12235 11373 6833 Blue 29
6 PM Mon 88 89 WNW 9 17 11060 10492 5952 Blue 24
7 PM Mon 83 83 WNW 9 17 7769 7152 2612 Blue 18
8 PM Mon 79 79 WNW 6 13 6878 5480 940 Blue 14
9 PM Mon 76 76 WNW 6 13 5510 4865 325 Blue 11
10 PM Mon 74 74 WNW 6 13 5016 4548 8 Blue 9

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst