Detailed Predictions for: Kagel
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.3333769599, -118.384563808, 3540
LZ Altitude (f): 1340
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 5 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Tue 65 65 NE 21 31 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 62 62 NE 23 33 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 62 62 NE 23 33 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 62 62 NE 23 33 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 61 61 NE 23 33 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 61 61 NE 23 33 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 60 60 NE 23 33 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 60 60 NE 20 29 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 64 64 NE 20 29 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 67 68 NE 20 29 2871 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 69 70 ENE 14 20 3355 3540 0 Blue 2
11 AM Tue 72 74 ENE 14 20 5832 3549 9 Blue 6
12 Noon Tue 73 75 ENE 14 20 7066 3781 241 Blue 7
1 PM Tue 74 76 NE 12 18 7767 4634 1094 Blue 8
2 PM Tue 74 75 NE 12 18 7066 3781 241 Blue 7
3 PM Tue 74 74 NE 12 18 5832 3549 9 Blue 6
4 PM Tue 72 72 ENE 13 19 3814 3540 0 Blue 4
5 PM Tue 68 68 ENE 13 19 2871 3540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 64 64 ENE 13 19 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 63 63 NE 10 13 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 63 63 NE 10 13 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 62 62 NE 10 13 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 62 62 NE 10 13 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 60 60 NE 10 13 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 60 60 NE 10 13 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 60 60 NE 9 11 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 58 58 NE 9 11 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 58 58 NE 9 11 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 57 57 ENE 6 8 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 57 57 ENE 6 8 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 56 56 ENE 6 8 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 56 56 E 4 5 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 59 59 E 4 5 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 65 66 E 4 5 1914 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 67 69 WSW 8 9 3154 3540 0 Blue 1
11 AM Wed 69 71 WSW 8 9 3555 3540 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Wed 70 72 WSW 8 9 3814 3540 0 Blue 4
1 PM Wed 70 72 SW 11 16 3814 3540 0 Blue 4
2 PM Wed 70 71 SW 11 16 3555 3540 0 Blue 3
3 PM Wed 69 69 SW 11 16 3154 3540 0 Blue 1
4 PM Wed 67 67 SSW 8 10 2372 3540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 64 64 SSW 8 10 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 61 61 SSW 8 10 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 58 58 SW 6 8 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 57 57 SW 6 8 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 55 55 SW 6 8 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 54 54 NE 5 6 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 53 53 NE 5 6 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 53 53 NE 5 6 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 52 52 NNE 4 5 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 52 52 NNE 4 5 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 52 52 NNE 4 5 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 52 52 N 6 9 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 51 51 N 6 9 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 50 50 N 6 9 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 50 50 N 10 14 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 52 52 N 10 14 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 56 57 N 10 14 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 59 60 NNW 12 18 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 61 63 NNW 12 18 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 62 64 NNW 12 18 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 62 64 NNW 18 26 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 62 63 NNW 18 26 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 61 61 NNW 18 26 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 59 59 NNW 18 26 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 57 57 NNW 18 26 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 55 55 NNW 18 26 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 53 53 N 20 29 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 52 52 N 20 29 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 52 52 N 20 29 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 52 52 N 21 31 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 51 51 N 21 31 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 49 49 N 21 31 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 48 48 N 21 31 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 47 47 N 21 31 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 47 47 N 21 31 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 47 47 N 20 29 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 45 45 N 20 29 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 44 44 N 20 29 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 44 44 NNE 14 21 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 46 46 NNE 14 21 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 49 50 NNE 14 21 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 52 54 N 13 19 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 55 57 N 13 19 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 57 59 N 13 19 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 58 60 NNE 14 21 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 59 60 NNE 14 21 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 59 59 NNE 14 21 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 58 58 NNE 14 21 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 55 55 NNE 14 21 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 53 53 NNE 14 21 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 50 50 NNE 12 18 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 49 49 NNE 12 18 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 49 49 NNE 12 18 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 49 49 NNE 13 19 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 48 48 NNE 13 19 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 48 48 NNE 13 19 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 48 48 NNE 13 19 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 48 48 NNE 13 19 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 48 48 NNE 13 19 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 48 48 NNE 14 21 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 47 47 NNE 14 21 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 46 46 NNE 14 21 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 46 46 NNE 16 23 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 48 48 NNE 16 23 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 51 52 NNE 16 23 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 55 56 NNE 16 23 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 57 59 NNE 16 23 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 59 61 NNE 16 23 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 60 62 NNE 14 21 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 61 62 NNE 14 21 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 61 61 NNE 14 21 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 60 60 NNE 13 19 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 58 58 NNE 13 19 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 55 55 NNE 13 19 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 53 53 NNE 12 18 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 52 52 NNE 12 18 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 51 51 NNE 12 18 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 50 50 NNE 12 18 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 50 50 NNE 12 18 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 49 49 NNE 12 18 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 49 49 NNE 13 19 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 49 49 NNE 13 19 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 49 49 NNE 13 19 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 49 49 NNE 13 19 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 48 48 NNE 13 19 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 48 48 NNE 13 19 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 49 49 NNE 13 19 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 51 51 NNE 13 19 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 55 55 NNE 13 19 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 58 59 NNE 12 18 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 61 62 NNE 12 18 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 63 64 NNE 12 18 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 64 65 NNE 13 19 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 65 66 NNE 13 19 1914 3540 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 65 65 NNE 13 19 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 63 63 N 12 18 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 61 61 N 12 18 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 59 59 N 12 18 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 57 57 NNE 11 16 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 56 56 NNE 11 16 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 56 56 NNE 11 16 1601 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 56 56 NNE 11 16 1601 3540 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst