Detailed Predictions for: Kagel
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.3333769599, -118.384563808, 3540
LZ Altitude (f): 1340
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time UTC:

 250620/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Fri 61 61 SW 4 5 2616 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 60 60 SW 4 5 2601 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 59 59 WNW 4 5 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 59 59 WNW 4 5 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 58 58 WNW 4 5 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 57 57 W 3 4 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 58 58 W 3 4 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 62 62 W 3 4 2630 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 64 65 WSW 4 5 2687 3540 0 Blue 1
9 AM Fri 64 67 WSW 4 5 2742 3540 0 Blue 3
10 AM Fri 65 70 WSW 4 5 3024 3540 0 Blue 6
11 AM Fri 67 74 SSW 9 11 3730 3540 0 Blue 10
12 Noon Fri 68 76 SSW 9 11 3902 3577 37 Blue 12
1 PM Fri 69 78 SSW 9 11 4014 3840 300 Blue 14
2 PM Fri 70 78 SSW 14 21 4014 3840 300 Blue 14
3 PM Fri 70 77 SSW 14 21 3958 3725 185 Blue 13
4 PM Fri 70 75 SSW 14 21 3844 3540 0 Blue 11
5 PM Fri 69 72 SSW 14 21 3414 3540 0 Blue 8
6 PM Fri 68 69 SSW 14 21 2870 3540 0 Blue 5
7 PM Fri 66 66 SSW 14 21 2715 3540 0 Blue 2
8 PM Fri 62 62 SSW 9 11 2630 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 61 61 SSW 9 11 2616 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 60 60 SSW 9 11 2601 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 58 58 W 19 27 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 61 61 W 19 27 2616 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 58 58 W 19 27 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 56 56 WNW 5 6 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 56 56 WNW 5 6 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 55 55 WNW 5 6 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 54 54 WNW 5 6 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 54 54 WNW 5 6 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 56 56 WNW 5 6 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 59 60 W 6 8 2601 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 62 65 W 6 8 2687 3540 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sat 64 69 W 6 8 2870 3540 0 Blue 5
11 AM Sat 66 73 WSW 10 13 3582 3540 0 Blue 9
12 Noon Sat 67 75 WSW 10 13 3844 3540 0 Blue 11
1 PM Sat 69 77 WSW 10 13 3958 3725 185 Blue 13
2 PM Sat 70 78 SW 12 18 4014 3840 300 Blue 14
3 PM Sat 71 77 SW 12 18 3958 3725 185 Blue 13
4 PM Sat 70 75 SW 12 18 3844 3540 0 Blue 11
5 PM Sat 71 74 SW 12 18 3730 3540 0 Blue 10
6 PM Sat 70 71 SW 12 18 3178 3540 0 Blue 7
7 PM Sat 68 68 SW 12 18 2793 3540 0 Blue 4
8 PM Sat 64 64 NNW 19 27 2660 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 63 63 NNW 19 27 2644 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 58 58 NNW 19 27 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 57 57 N 16 23 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 55 55 N 16 23 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 54 54 N 16 23 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 54 54 N 11 16 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 54 54 N 11 16 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 53 53 N 11 16 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 53 53 NNE 6 9 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 52 52 NNE 6 9 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 52 52 NNE 6 9 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 54 55 N 5 8 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 58 61 N 5 8 2616 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 62 67 N 5 8 2742 3540 0 Blue 3
11 AM Sun 67 74 W 9 12 3730 3540 0 Blue 10
12 Noon Sun 70 79 W 9 12 4070 3900 360 Blue 15
1 PM Sun 72 81 W 9 12 4195 4011 471 Blue 17
2 PM Sun 74 82 SW 10 14 4335 4067 527 Blue 18
3 PM Sun 75 82 SW 10 14 4335 4067 527 Blue 18
4 PM Sun 76 81 SW 10 14 4195 4011 471 Blue 17
5 PM Sun 75 78 SW 6 9 4014 3840 300 Blue 14
6 PM Sun 73 74 SW 6 9 3730 3540 0 Blue 10
7 PM Sun 70 70 SW 6 9 3024 3540 0 Blue 6
8 PM Sun 67 67 SW 5 8 2742 3540 0 Blue 3
9 PM Sun 64 64 SW 5 8 2660 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 61 61 SW 5 8 2616 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 59 59 SSE 5 8 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 57 57 SSE 5 8 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 56 56 SSE 5 8 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 55 55 SE 5 8 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 54 54 SE 5 8 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 54 54 SE 5 8 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 54 54 SE 5 8 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 55 55 SE 5 8 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 56 56 SE 5 8 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 57 58 S 8 11 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 60 62 S 8 11 2630 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 63 66 S 8 11 2715 3540 0 Blue 2
11 AM Mon 65 72 SSW 10 14 3414 3540 0 Blue 8
12 Noon Mon 68 77 SSW 10 14 3958 3725 185 Blue 13
1 PM Mon 70 79 SSW 10 14 4070 3900 360 Blue 15
2 PM Mon 72 80 SSW 10 14 4126 3955 415 Blue 16
3 PM Mon 74 81 SSW 10 14 4195 4011 471 Blue 17
4 PM Mon 74 79 SSW 10 14 4070 3900 360 Blue 15
5 PM Mon 73 76 SSW 8 11 3902 3577 37 Blue 12
6 PM Mon 71 72 SSW 8 11 3414 3540 0 Blue 8
7 PM Mon 69 69 SSW 8 11 2870 3540 0 Blue 5
8 PM Mon 65 65 SSW 5 8 2687 3540 0 Blue 1
9 PM Mon 62 62 SSW 5 8 2630 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 60 60 SSW 5 8 2601 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 58 58 S 4 6 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 56 56 S 4 6 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 55 55 S 4 6 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 54 54 SSE 4 6 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 54 54 SSE 4 6 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 53 53 SSE 4 6 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 53 53 SSE 4 6 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 53 53 SSE 4 6 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 54 54 SSE 4 6 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 55 56 S 6 9 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 58 60 S 6 9 2601 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 62 65 S 6 9 2687 3540 0 Blue 1
11 AM Tue 65 72 SSW 10 14 3414 3540 0 Blue 8
12 Noon Tue 67 76 SSW 10 14 3902 3577 37 Blue 12
1 PM Tue 69 78 SSW 10 14 4014 3840 300 Blue 14
2 PM Tue 71 79 SSW 10 14 4070 3900 360 Blue 15
3 PM Tue 72 79 SSW 10 14 4070 3900 360 Blue 15
4 PM Tue 73 78 SSW 10 14 4014 3840 300 Blue 14
5 PM Tue 73 76 SSW 6 9 3902 3577 37 Blue 12
6 PM Tue 72 73 SSW 6 9 3582 3540 0 Blue 9
7 PM Tue 69 69 SSW 6 9 2870 3540 0 Blue 5
8 PM Tue 66 66 SSW 4 6 2715 3540 0 Blue 2
9 PM Tue 63 63 SSW 4 6 2644 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 61 61 SSW 4 6 2616 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 59 59 S 3 4 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 57 57 S 3 4 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 56 56 S 3 4 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 55 55 SSE 2 3 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 55 55 SSE 2 3 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 55 55 SSE 2 3 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 55 55 SE 2 3 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 56 56 SE 2 3 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 57 57 SE 2 3 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 60 61 SSW 5 8 2616 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 62 65 SSW 5 8 2687 3540 0 Blue 1
10 AM Wed 66 70 SSW 5 8 3024 3540 0 Blue 6
11 AM Wed 69 76 SW 9 12 3902 3577 37 Blue 12
12 Noon Wed 72 81 SW 9 12 4195 4011 471 Blue 17
1 PM Wed 75 84 SW 9 12 4618 4188 648 Blue 20
2 PM Wed 76 84 SW 9 12 4618 4188 648 Blue 20
3 PM Wed 78 85 SW 9 12 4867 4327 787 Blue 21
4 PM Wed 78 83 SW 9 12 4473 4123 583 Blue 19
5 PM Wed 77 80 SW 5 8 4126 3955 415 Blue 16
6 PM Wed 76 77 SW 5 8 3958 3725 185 Blue 13
7 PM Wed 74 74 SW 5 8 3730 3540 0 Blue 10
8 PM Wed 71 71 SW 4 6 3178 3540 0 Blue 7
9 PM Wed 68 68 SW 4 6 2793 3540 0 Blue 4
10 PM Wed 65 65 SW 4 6 2687 3540 0 Blue 1

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst