Detailed Predictions for: Kagel
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.3333769599, -118.384563808, 3540
LZ Altitude (f): 1340
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

19 JUN 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 59 59 ESE 4 4 2756 3540 0 Blue 3
1 AM Wed 58 58 ESE 4 4 2732 3540 0 Blue 2
2 AM Wed 58 58 ESE 3 3 2732 3540 0 Blue 2
3 AM Wed 58 58 ESE 3 3 2732 3540 0 Blue 2
4 AM Wed 58 58 ESE 3 3 2732 3540 0 Blue 2
5 AM Wed 58 58 SE 3 3 2732 3540 0 Blue 2
6 AM Wed 57 57 SE 3 3 2715 3540 0 Blue 1
7 AM Wed 59 59 SE 3 3 2756 3540 0 Blue 3
8 AM Wed 61 61 S 5 5 2821 3540 0 Blue 5
9 AM Wed 64 64 S 5 5 2953 3540 0 Blue 8
10 AM Wed 66 66 S 5 5 3263 3540 0 Blue 10
11 AM Wed 68 75 SSW 9 11 4524 3838 298 Blue 19
12 Noon Wed 71 79 SSW 9 11 5112 4757 1217 Blue 23
1 PM Wed 73 81 SSW 9 11 5813 4959 1419 Blue 25
2 PM Wed 75 83 SSW 10 13 6577 5333 1793 Blue 27
3 PM Wed 75 81 SSW 10 13 5813 4959 1419 Blue 25
4 PM Wed 74 78 SSW 10 13 4972 4517 977 Blue 22
5 PM Wed 73 76 S 9 11 4764 3922 382 Blue 20
6 PM Wed 72 73 S 9 11 3925 3540 0 Blue 17
7 PM Wed 70 70 S 9 11 3525 3540 0 Blue 14
8 PM Wed 67 67 S 5 5 3343 3540 0 Blue 11
9 PM Wed 63 63 S 5 5 2891 3540 0 Blue 7
10 PM Wed 62 62 S 5 5 2844 3540 0 Blue 6
11 PM Wed 61 61 SE 4 4 2821 3540 0 Blue 5
12 Midnight Thu 60 60 SE 4 4 2780 3540 0 Blue 4
1 AM Thu 59 59 SE 4 4 2756 3540 0 Blue 3
2 AM Thu 58 58 ESE 3 3 2732 3540 0 Blue 2
3 AM Thu 58 58 ESE 3 3 2732 3540 0 Blue 2
4 AM Thu 57 57 ESE 3 3 2715 3540 0 Blue 1
5 AM Thu 56 56 E 3 3 2700 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 56 56 E 3 3 2700 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 60 60 E 3 3 2780 3540 0 Blue 4
8 AM Thu 64 65 SSW 3 3 3144 3540 0 Blue 9
9 AM Thu 66 69 SSW 3 3 3434 3540 0 Blue 13
10 AM Thu 70 75 SSW 3 3 4524 3838 298 Blue 19
11 AM Thu 72 79 SW 6 8 5112 4757 1217 Blue 23
12 Noon Thu 75 83 SW 6 8 6577 5333 1793 Blue 27
1 PM Thu 77 85 SW 6 8 7301 6197 2657 Blue 29
2 PM Thu 79 87 SW 10 13 7693 7048 3508 Blue 31
3 PM Thu 79 85 SW 10 13 7301 6197 2657 Blue 29
4 PM Thu 79 83 SW 10 13 6577 5333 1793 Blue 27
5 PM Thu 79 82 SW 10 13 6246 5102 1562 Blue 26
6 PM Thu 79 80 SW 10 13 5371 4838 1298 Blue 24
7 PM Thu 77 77 SW 10 13 4844 4411 871 Blue 21
8 PM Thu 71 71 SW 6 8 3757 3540 0 Blue 15
9 PM Thu 67 67 SW 6 8 3343 3540 0 Blue 11
10 PM Thu 65 65 SW 6 8 3144 3540 0 Blue 9
11 PM Thu 65 65 S 4 4 3144 3540 0 Blue 9
12 Midnight Fri 64 64 S 4 4 2953 3540 0 Blue 8
1 AM Fri 64 64 S 4 4 2953 3540 0 Blue 8
2 AM Fri 62 62 ENE 4 4 2844 3540 0 Blue 6
3 AM Fri 61 61 ENE 4 4 2821 3540 0 Blue 5
4 AM Fri 60 60 ENE 4 4 2780 3540 0 Blue 4
5 AM Fri 60 60 NNE 5 5 2780 3540 0 Blue 4
6 AM Fri 60 60 NNE 5 5 2780 3540 0 Blue 4
7 AM Fri 63 63 NNE 5 5 2891 3540 0 Blue 7
8 AM Fri 69 70 N 4 4 3525 3540 0 Blue 14
9 AM Fri 72 75 N 4 4 4524 3838 298 Blue 19
10 AM Fri 73 78 N 4 4 4972 4517 977 Blue 22
11 AM Fri 76 83 WSW 4 4 6577 5333 1793 Blue 27
12 Noon Fri 79 87 WSW 4 4 7693 7048 3508 Blue 31
1 PM Fri 81 89 WSW 4 4 9219 7467 3927 Blue 33
2 PM Fri 83 91 SW 8 9 10744 7822 4282 Blue 35
3 PM Fri 84 90 SW 8 9 10237 7662 4122 Blue 34
4 PM Fri 84 88 SW 8 9 7837 7272 3732 Blue 32
5 PM Fri 83 86 SW 9 11 7497 6500 2960 Blue 30
6 PM Fri 82 83 SW 9 11 6577 5333 1793 Blue 27
7 PM Fri 80 80 SW 9 11 5371 4838 1298 Blue 24
8 PM Fri 75 75 SW 5 5 4524 3838 298 Blue 19
9 PM Fri 71 71 SW 5 5 3757 3540 0 Blue 15
10 PM Fri 70 70 SW 5 5 3525 3540 0 Blue 14
11 PM Fri 68 68 SE 4 4 3363 3540 0 Blue 12
12 Midnight Sat 68 68 SE 4 4 3363 3540 0 Blue 12
1 AM Sat 67 67 SE 4 4 3343 3540 0 Blue 11
2 AM Sat 65 65 ENE 5 5 3144 3540 0 Blue 9
3 AM Sat 64 64 ENE 5 5 2953 3540 0 Blue 8
4 AM Sat 64 64 ENE 5 5 2953 3540 0 Blue 8
5 AM Sat 64 64 NE 5 9 2953 3540 0 Blue 8
6 AM Sat 64 64 NE 5 9 2953 3540 0 Blue 8
7 AM Sat 65 65 NE 5 9 3144 3540 0 Blue 9
8 AM Sat 68 69 NNE 4 6 3434 3540 0 Blue 13
9 AM Sat 72 75 NNE 4 6 4524 3838 298 Blue 19
10 AM Sat 77 82 NNE 4 6 6246 5102 1562 Blue 26
11 AM Sat 81 88 SSW 5 9 7837 7272 3732 Blue 32
12 Noon Sat 84 92 SSW 5 9 10952 8996 5456 Blue 36
1 PM Sat 86 94 SSW 5 9 11098 10660 7120 Blue 38
2 PM Sat 87 95 SSW 9 14 11309 10932 7392 Blue 39
3 PM Sat 88 94 SSW 9 14 11098 10660 7120 Blue 38
4 PM Sat 89 93 SSW 9 14 11025 9992 6452 Blue 37
5 PM Sat 88 91 SSW 10 16 10744 7822 4282 Blue 35
6 PM Sat 86 87 SSW 10 16 7693 7048 3508 Blue 31
7 PM Sat 82 82 SSW 10 16 6246 5102 1562 Blue 26
8 PM Sat 78 78 SSW 5 9 4972 4517 977 Blue 22
9 PM Sat 73 73 SSW 5 9 3925 3540 0 Blue 17
10 PM Sat 69 69 SSW 5 9 3434 3540 0 Blue 13
11 PM Sat 67 67 S 4 6 3343 3540 0 Blue 11
12 Midnight Sun 65 65 S 4 6 3144 3540 0 Blue 9
1 AM Sun 65 65 S 4 6 3144 3540 0 Blue 9
2 AM Sun 64 64 SE 2 3 2953 3540 0 Blue 8
3 AM Sun 64 64 SE 2 3 2953 3540 0 Blue 8
4 AM Sun 63 63 SE 2 3 2891 3540 0 Blue 7
5 AM Sun 63 63 NE 3 5 2891 3540 0 Blue 7
6 AM Sun 64 64 NE 3 5 2953 3540 0 Blue 8
7 AM Sun 67 67 NE 3 5 3343 3540 0 Blue 11
8 AM Sun 70 71 SW 3 5 3757 3540 0 Blue 15
9 AM Sun 73 76 SW 3 5 4764 3922 382 Blue 20
10 AM Sun 77 82 SW 3 5 6246 5102 1562 Blue 26
11 AM Sun 80 87 SSW 6 11 7693 7048 3508 Blue 31
12 Noon Sun 83 91 SSW 6 11 10744 7822 4282 Blue 35
1 PM Sun 85 93 SSW 6 11 11025 9992 6452 Blue 37
2 PM Sun 86 94 SW 11 18 11098 10660 7120 Blue 38
3 PM Sun 87 93 SW 11 18 11025 9992 6452 Blue 37
4 PM Sun 87 91 SW 11 18 10744 7822 4282 Blue 35
5 PM Sun 86 89 SW 10 16 9219 7467 3927 Blue 33
6 PM Sun 83 84 SW 10 16 7096 5769 2229 Blue 28
7 PM Sun 80 80 SW 10 16 5371 4838 1298 Blue 24
8 PM Sun 76 76 SW 8 12 4764 3922 382 Blue 20
9 PM Sun 73 73 SW 8 12 3925 3540 0 Blue 17
10 PM Sun 70 70 SW 8 12 3525 3540 0 Blue 14
11 PM Sun 67 67 S 4 6 3343 3540 0 Blue 11
12 Midnight Mon 66 66 S 4 6 3263 3540 0 Blue 10
1 AM Mon 65 65 S 4 6 3144 3540 0 Blue 9
2 AM Mon 64 64 S 3 5 2953 3540 0 Blue 8
3 AM Mon 63 63 S 3 5 2891 3540 0 Blue 7
4 AM Mon 63 63 S 3 5 2891 3540 0 Blue 7
5 AM Mon 63 63 ESE 3 5 2891 3540 0 Blue 7
6 AM Mon 64 64 ESE 3 5 2953 3540 0 Blue 8
7 AM Mon 66 66 ESE 3 5 3263 3540 0 Blue 10
8 AM Mon 68 69 SSW 3 5 3434 3540 0 Blue 13
9 AM Mon 71 74 SSW 3 5 4417 3754 214 Blue 18
10 AM Mon 74 79 SSW 3 5 5112 4757 1217 Blue 23
11 AM Mon 77 84 SSW 8 12 7096 5769 2229 Blue 28
12 Noon Mon 79 87 SSW 8 12 7693 7048 3508 Blue 31
1 PM Mon 81 89 SSW 8 12 9219 7467 3927 Blue 33
2 PM Mon 82 90 SW 11 18 10237 7662 4122 Blue 34
3 PM Mon 83 89 SW 11 18 9219 7467 3927 Blue 33
4 PM Mon 83 87 SW 11 18 7693 7048 3508 Blue 31
5 PM Mon 82 85 SW 11 18 7301 6197 2657 Blue 29
6 PM Mon 80 81 SW 11 18 5813 4959 1419 Blue 25
7 PM Mon 78 78 SW 11 18 4972 4517 977 Blue 22
8 PM Mon 75 75 SW 8 12 4524 3838 298 Blue 19
9 PM Mon 73 73 SW 8 12 3925 3540 0 Blue 17
10 PM Mon 71 71 SW 8 12 3757 3540 0 Blue 15

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst