Detailed Predictions for: Kagel
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.3333769599, -118.384563808, 3540
LZ Altitude (f): 1340
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

18 MAY 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 59 59 SSE 5 6 4341 4268 728 Blue 11
1 AM Tue 59 59 SE 4 5 4341 4268 728 Blue 11
2 AM Tue 58 58 SE 4 5 4317 4245 705 Blue 10
3 AM Tue 58 58 SE 3 4 4317 4245 705 Blue 10
4 AM Tue 58 58 SE 3 3 4317 4245 705 Blue 10
5 AM Tue 58 58 SE 2 3 4317 4245 705 Blue 10
6 AM Tue 59 59 S 2 3 4341 4268 728 Blue 11
7 AM Tue 61 61 SSW 2 3 4388 4316 776 Blue 13
8 AM Tue 62 63 WSW 2 3 4436 4364 824 Blue 15
9 AM Tue 66 69 SW 3 4 5310 4944 1404 Blue 21
10 AM Tue 70 75 SW 4 5 7679 5728 2188 Blue 27
11 AM Tue 73 80 SW 5 6 9076 8201 4661 Blue 32
12 Noon Tue 76 85 SSW 6 7 11537 9570 6030 Blue 37
1 PM Tue 79 88 SSW 7 8 12416 11255 7715 White 40
2 PM Tue 81 89 SSW 8 9 12619 12619 9079 White 41
3 PM Tue 80 86 SSW 8 9 12008 9884 6344 White 38
4 PM Tue 79 83 S 7 8 9951 9027 5487 Blue 35
5 PM Tue 78 80 S 7 8 9076 8201 4661 Blue 32
6 PM Tue 76 77 S 6 7 8243 7358 3818 Blue 29
7 PM Tue 74 74 SSE 5 6 7394 5572 2032 Blue 26
8 PM Tue 72 72 SSE 4 5 5739 5304 1764 Blue 24
9 PM Tue 70 70 SSE 4 4 5431 5064 1524 Blue 22
10 PM Tue 69 69 SSE 3 4 5310 4944 1404 Blue 21
11 PM Tue 67 67 SSE 3 3 5070 4483 943 Blue 19
12 Midnight Wed 67 67 SSE 3 3 5070 4483 943 Blue 19
1 AM Wed 67 67 SSE 2 3 5070 4483 943 Blue 19
2 AM Wed 67 67 SSE 2 2 5070 4483 943 Blue 19
3 AM Wed 66 66 S 2 2 4949 4436 896 Blue 18
4 AM Wed 64 64 SSW 2 3 4486 4388 848 Blue 16
5 AM Wed 62 62 SW 2 3 4412 4340 800 Blue 14
6 AM Wed 63 63 SSW 2 3 4436 4364 824 Blue 15
7 AM Wed 64 64 S 3 3 4486 4388 848 Blue 16
8 AM Wed 64 65 SSE 3 3 4586 4412 872 Blue 17
9 AM Wed 67 70 S 4 4 5431 5064 1524 Blue 22
10 AM Wed 70 75 S 5 5 7679 5728 2188 Blue 27
11 AM Wed 72 79 S 6 6 8800 7922 4382 Blue 31
12 Noon Wed 74 83 S 6 8 9951 9027 5487 Blue 35
1 PM Wed 76 85 S 7 8 11537 9570 6030 Blue 37
2 PM Wed 78 86 S 8 10 12008 9884 6344 White 38
3 PM Wed 77 83 S 8 9 9951 9027 5487 Blue 35
4 PM Wed 75 79 S 8 9 8800 7922 4382 Blue 31
5 PM Wed 73 75 S 7 8 7679 5728 2188 Blue 27
6 PM Wed 71 72 S 7 8 5739 5304 1764 Blue 24
7 PM Wed 69 69 S 6 8 5310 4944 1404 Blue 21
8 PM Wed 67 67 S 6 8 5070 4483 943 Blue 19
9 PM Wed 65 65 SSE 6 8 4586 4412 872 Blue 17
10 PM Wed 64 64 SSE 7 9 4486 4388 848 Blue 16
11 PM Wed 62 62 SSE 7 9 4412 4340 800 Blue 14
12 Midnight Thu 61 61 SE 7 9 4388 4316 776 Blue 13
1 AM Thu 60 60 SE 7 9 4365 4292 752 Blue 12
2 AM Thu 58 58 SE 7 9 4317 4245 705 Blue 10
3 AM Thu 58 58 SE 7 8 4317 4245 705 Blue 10
4 AM Thu 58 58 SE 6 8 4317 4245 705 Blue 10
5 AM Thu 58 58 SE 6 7 4317 4245 705 Blue 10
6 AM Thu 58 58 SE 6 7 4317 4245 705 Blue 10
7 AM Thu 58 58 SSE 5 6 4317 4245 705 Blue 10
8 AM Thu 57 57 SSE 4 5 4293 4195 655 Blue 9
9 AM Thu 59 59 SSE 4 5 4341 4268 728 Blue 11
10 AM Thu 60 60 SSE 5 5 4365 4292 752 Blue 12
11 AM Thu 61 62 S 5 5 4412 4340 800 Blue 14
12 Noon Thu 63 66 S 5 6 4949 4436 896 Blue 18
1 PM Thu 65 70 S 5 6 5431 5064 1524 Blue 22
2 PM Thu 67 74 S 6 6 7394 5572 2032 Blue 26
3 PM Thu 68 73 SSW 6 7 6148 5424 1884 Blue 25
4 PM Thu 68 71 SSW 7 8 5583 5184 1644 Blue 23
5 PM Thu 69 71 SW 7 9 5583 5184 1644 Blue 23
6 PM Thu 67 67 SSW 7 9 5070 4483 943 Blue 19
7 PM Thu 65 65 S 7 9 4586 4412 872 Blue 17
8 PM Thu 63 63 SSE 7 9 4436 4364 824 Blue 15
9 PM Thu 62 62 SE 7 8 4412 4340 800 Blue 14
10 PM Thu 60 60 SE 7 8 4365 4292 752 Blue 12
11 PM Thu 59 59 SE 7 8 4341 4268 728 Blue 11

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst