Detailed Predictions for: Kagel
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.3333769599, -118.384563808, 3540
LZ Altitude (f): 1340
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 2 AUG 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Fri 72 72 SE 4 5 2244 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 70 70 SE 4 5 2244 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 70 70 ESE 2 2 2244 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 69 69 ESE 2 2 2244 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 68 68 ESE 2 2 2244 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 68 68 NNE 2 2 2244 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 68 68 NNE 2 2 2244 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 69 69 NNE 2 2 2244 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 73 74 SSW 5 6 2244 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 76 78 SSW 5 6 2244 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 79 83 SSW 5 6 2805 3540 0 Blue 1
11 AM Fri 81 85 S 10 13 3170 3540 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Fri 83 88 S 10 13 4080 3540 0 Blue 6
1 PM Fri 85 90 S 10 13 4771 3718 178 Blue 8
2 PM Fri 86 91 S 12 18 5111 4064 524 Blue 9
3 PM Fri 87 91 S 12 18 5111 4064 524 Blue 9
4 PM Fri 87 90 S 12 18 4771 3718 178 Blue 8
5 PM Fri 86 87 S 11 16 3729 3540 0 Blue 5
6 PM Fri 85 85 S 11 16 3170 3540 0 Blue 3
7 PM Fri 82 82 S 11 16 2586 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 79 79 SSE 8 9 2244 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 76 76 SSE 8 9 2244 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 74 74 SSE 8 9 2244 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 72 72 SSE 5 6 2244 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 71 71 SSE 5 6 2244 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 70 70 SSE 5 6 2244 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 69 69 SSE 2 2 2244 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 69 69 SSE 2 2 2244 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 68 68 SSE 2 2 2244 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 68 68 E 2 2 2244 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 68 68 E 2 2 2244 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 69 69 E 2 2 2244 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 73 73 SSW 5 6 2244 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 77 78 SSW 5 6 2244 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 79 82 SSW 5 6 2586 3540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 82 87 S 10 13 3729 3540 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Sat 84 90 S 10 13 4771 3718 178 Blue 8
1 PM Sat 86 92 S 10 13 6102 4408 868 Blue 10
2 PM Sat 87 93 SSW 13 19 7790 4748 1208 Blue 11
3 PM Sat 88 93 SSW 13 19 7790 4748 1208 Blue 11
4 PM Sat 88 92 SSW 13 19 6102 4408 868 Blue 10
5 PM Sat 87 89 SSW 13 19 4427 3540 0 Blue 7
6 PM Sat 86 87 SSW 13 19 3729 3540 0 Blue 5
7 PM Sat 83 83 SSW 13 19 2805 3540 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sat 79 79 S 9 11 2244 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 75 75 S 9 11 2244 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 73 73 S 9 11 2244 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 71 71 SE 5 6 2244 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 69 69 SE 5 6 2244 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 68 68 SE 5 6 2244 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 67 67 ESE 3 4 2244 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 67 67 ESE 3 4 2244 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 66 66 ESE 3 4 2244 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 66 66 ESE 3 4 2244 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 66 66 ESE 3 4 2244 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 67 67 ESE 3 4 2244 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 72 73 SW 6 8 2244 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 75 77 SW 6 8 2244 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 78 82 SW 6 8 2586 3540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 81 87 SSW 11 16 3729 3540 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Sun 83 91 SSW 11 16 5111 4064 524 Blue 9
1 PM Sun 86 94 SSW 11 16 9081 5085 1545 Blue 12
2 PM Sun 87 95 SSW 16 24 10171 5889 2349 Blue 13
3 PM Sun 88 95 SSW 16 24 10171 5889 2349 Blue 13
4 PM Sun 88 93 SSW 16 24 7790 4748 1208 Blue 11
5 PM Sun 87 90 S 16 23 4771 3718 178 Blue 8
6 PM Sun 85 86 S 16 23 3375 3540 0 Blue 4
7 PM Sun 82 82 S 16 23 2586 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 79 79 SW 10 12 2244 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 74 74 SW 10 12 2244 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 72 72 SW 10 12 2244 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 70 70 WSW 6 8 2244 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 69 69 WSW 6 8 2244 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 67 67 WSW 6 8 2244 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 67 67 S 6 8 2244 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 66 66 S 6 8 2244 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 65 65 S 6 8 2244 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 65 65 E 6 9 2244 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 65 65 E 6 9 2244 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 66 66 E 6 9 2244 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 71 72 SW 6 9 2244 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 75 78 SW 6 9 2244 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 78 83 SW 6 9 2805 3540 0 Blue 1
11 AM Mon 81 88 SSW 10 13 4080 3540 0 Blue 6
12 Noon Mon 83 91 SSW 10 13 5111 4064 524 Blue 9
1 PM Mon 85 94 SSW 10 13 9081 5085 1545 Blue 12
2 PM Mon 87 95 SSW 16 20 10171 5889 2349 Blue 13
3 PM Mon 88 95 SSW 16 20 10171 5889 2349 Blue 13
4 PM Mon 88 93 SSW 16 20 7790 4748 1208 Blue 11
5 PM Mon 87 90 SW 14 19 4771 3718 178 Blue 8
6 PM Mon 86 87 SW 14 19 3729 3540 0 Blue 5
7 PM Mon 83 83 SW 14 19 2805 3540 0 Blue 1
8 PM Mon 79 79 WSW 9 11 2244 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 75 75 WSW 9 11 2244 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 73 73 WSW 9 11 2244 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 71 71 S 5 8 2244 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 69 69 S 5 8 2244 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 68 68 S 5 8 2244 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 67 67 E 5 8 2244 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 67 67 E 5 8 2244 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 66 66 E 5 8 2244 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 66 66 ENE 6 9 2244 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 66 66 ENE 6 9 2244 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 67 67 ENE 6 9 2244 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 72 73 NNE 5 8 2244 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 77 80 NNE 5 8 2244 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 80 85 NNE 5 8 3170 3540 0 Blue 3
11 AM Tue 83 90 SW 10 13 4771 3718 178 Blue 8
12 Noon Tue 86 94 SW 10 13 9081 5085 1545 Blue 12
1 PM Tue 88 97 SW 10 13 11462 8847 5307 Blue 15
2 PM Tue 90 98 SW 14 19 11843 9931 6391 Blue 16
3 PM Tue 91 98 SW 14 19 11843 9931 6391 Blue 16
4 PM Tue 91 96 SW 14 19 11074 7563 4023 Blue 14
5 PM Tue 90 93 SW 14 19 7790 4748 1208 Blue 11
6 PM Tue 88 89 SW 14 19 4427 3540 0 Blue 7
7 PM Tue 85 85 SW 14 19 3170 3540 0 Blue 3
8 PM Tue 81 81 SW 8 10 2311 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 77 77 SW 8 10 2244 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 74 74 SW 8 10 2244 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 72 72 SSE 5 8 2244 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 71 71 SSE 5 8 2244 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 69 69 SSE 5 8 2244 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 69 69 ESE 5 8 2244 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 68 68 ESE 5 8 2244 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 67 67 ESE 5 8 2244 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 67 67 NE 6 9 2244 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 67 67 NE 6 9 2244 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 68 68 NE 6 9 2244 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 73 74 S 6 9 2244 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 77 80 S 6 9 2244 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 80 85 S 6 9 3170 3540 0 Blue 3
11 AM Wed 83 90 SSW 10 13 4771 3718 178 Blue 8
12 Noon Wed 85 93 SSW 10 13 7790 4748 1208 Blue 11
1 PM Wed 87 96 SSW 10 13 11074 7563 4023 Blue 14
2 PM Wed 89 97 SSW 16 20 11462 8847 5307 Blue 15
3 PM Wed 90 97 SSW 16 20 11462 8847 5307 Blue 15
4 PM Wed 90 95 SSW 16 20 10171 5889 2349 Blue 13
5 PM Wed 89 92 SW 16 20 6102 4408 868 Blue 10
6 PM Wed 87 88 SW 16 20 4080 3540 0 Blue 6
7 PM Wed 84 84 SW 16 20 2988 3540 0 Blue 2
8 PM Wed 81 81 SW 8 10 2311 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 76 76 SW 8 10 2244 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 74 74 SW 8 10 2244 3540 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst