Detailed Predictions for: Kagel
Launch Altitude (f): 3540
LZ Altitude (f): 1340
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

18 NOV 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Mon 66 66 NE 20 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 66 66 NE 20 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 66 66 NE 20 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 67 67 E 13 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 71 71 E 13 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 74 75 E 13 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 76 78 E 14 6389 3540 0 Blue 1
11 AM Mon 77 80 E 14 7197 3540 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Mon 78 81 E 14 7593 6108 2568 Blue 4
1 PM Mon 79 81 S 6 7593 6108 2568 Blue 4
2 PM Mon 79 80 S 6 7197 3540 0 Blue 3
3 PM Mon 78 78 S 6 6389 3540 0 Blue 1
4 PM Mon 76 76 S 6 2816 3540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 72 72 S 6 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 69 69 S 6 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 67 67 SW 2 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 67 67 SW 2 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 66 66 SW 2 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 65 65 S 5 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 65 65 S 5 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 64 64 S 5 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 62 62 S 5 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 62 62 S 5 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 62 62 S 5 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 62 62 S 6 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 63 63 S 6 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 62 62 S 6 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 63 63 S 7 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 65 65 S 7 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 67 68 S 7 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 67 68 S 9 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 68 69 S 9 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 69 70 S 9 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 69 70 S 13 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 69 69 S 13 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 68 68 S 13 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 66 66 S 15 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 62 62 S 15 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 59 59 S 15 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 57 57 S 12 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 57 57 S 12 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 56 56 S 12 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 55 55 S 10 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 55 55 S 10 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 54 54 S 10 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 52 52 S 10 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 52 52 S 10 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 52 52 S 10 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 52 52 S 8 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 52 52 S 8 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 52 52 S 8 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 52 52 S 7 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 53 53 S 7 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 53 53 S 7 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 54 54 S 12 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 54 54 S 12 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 54 54 S 12 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 54 54 S 10 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 54 54 S 10 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 54 54 S 10 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 53 53 S 8 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 52 52 S 8 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 52 52 S 8 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 51 51 S 8 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 51 51 S 8 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 51 51 S 8 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 51 51 SE 7 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 51 51 SE 7 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 50 50 SE 7 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 50 50 SE 7 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 50 50 SE 7 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 50 50 SE 7 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 50 50 NE 7 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 50 50 NE 7 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 50 50 NE 7 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 51 51 NE 7 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 52 52 NE 7 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 53 53 NE 7 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 54 55 S 9 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 54 55 S 9 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 55 56 S 9 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 55 56 S 9 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 55 56 S 9 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 54 54 S 9 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 54 54 S 9 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 53 53 S 9 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 52 52 S 9 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 51 51 S 9 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 51 51 S 9 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 51 51 S 9 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 50 50 NE 7 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 50 50 NE 7 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 50 50 NE 7 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 49 49 NE 7 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 50 50 NE 7 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 50 50 NE 7 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 50 50 NE 8 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 50 50 NE 8 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 50 50 NE 8 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 50 50 NE 8 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 53 53 NE 8 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 55 56 NE 8 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 57 58 NE 9 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 57 59 NE 9 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 59 61 NE 9 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 59 61 NE 9 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 59 60 NE 9 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 58 58 NE 9 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 58 58 NE 8 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 56 56 NE 8 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 54 54 NE 8 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 54 54 NE 8 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 53 53 NE 8 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 53 53 NE 8 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 53 53 N 10 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 52 52 N 10 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 52 52 N 10 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 51 51 N 10 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 52 52 N 10 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 52 52 N 10 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 52 52 NE 12 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 52 52 NE 12 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 52 52 NE 12 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 53 53 NE 12 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 56 56 NE 12 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 58 59 NE 12 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 59 60 N 8 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 60 62 N 8 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 61 63 N 8 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 62 64 N 8 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 62 63 N 8 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 61 61 N 8 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 60 60 N 9 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 58 58 N 9 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 56 56 N 9 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 55 55 N 9 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 55 55 N 9 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 55 55 N 9 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 54 54 N 9 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 54 54 N 9 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 53 53 N 9 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 52 52 N 9 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 53 53 N 9 2585 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 53 53 N 9 2585 3540 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst