Detailed Predictions for: Kagel
Launch Altitude (f): 3540
LZ Altitude (f): 1340
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 2 DEC 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
4 AM Wed 53 53 NE 28 968 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 53 53 NE 28 968 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 53 53 NE 28 968 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 54 54 NE 28 968 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 57 57 NE 28 968 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 58 59 NE 28 1030 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 60 61 NE 23 1418 3540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 63 64 NE 23 1997 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 64 66 NE 23 2381 3540 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 65 66 NE 23 2381 3540 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 66 67 NE 23 2573 3540 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 66 66 NE 23 2381 3540 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 62 62 NE 30 1611 3540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 55 55 NE 30 968 3540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 51 51 NE 30 968 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 52 52 NE 31 968 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 52 52 NE 31 968 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 51 51 NE 31 968 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 51 51 NE 39 968 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 51 51 NE 39 968 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 50 50 NE 39 968 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 47 47 NE 37 968 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 47 47 NE 37 968 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 46 46 NE 37 968 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 46 46 NE 41 968 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 46 46 NE 41 968 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 46 46 NE 41 968 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 47 47 NE 41 968 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 50 50 NE 41 968 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 51 51 NE 41 968 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 54 55 NE 39 968 3540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 57 59 NE 39 1030 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 58 60 NE 39 1224 3540 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 59 61 NE 36 1418 3540 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 60 61 NE 36 1418 3540 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 60 60 NE 36 1224 3540 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 57 57 NE 28 968 3540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 52 52 NE 28 968 3540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 49 49 NE 28 968 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 50 50 NE 30 968 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 49 49 NE 30 968 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 49 49 NE 30 968 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 49 49 NE 30 968 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 49 49 NE 30 968 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 48 48 NE 30 968 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 46 46 NE 33 968 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 45 45 NE 33 968 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 45 45 NE 33 968 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 45 45 NE 31 968 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 46 46 NE 31 968 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 45 45 NE 31 968 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 47 47 NE 30 968 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 50 50 NE 30 968 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 52 53 NE 30 968 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 55 56 NE 28 968 3540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 59 61 NE 28 1418 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 61 63 NE 28 1804 3540 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 61 63 NE 24 1804 3540 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 63 64 NE 24 1997 3540 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 63 63 NE 24 1804 3540 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 60 60 N 22 1224 3540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 55 55 N 22 968 3540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 53 53 N 22 968 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 53 53 N 16 968 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 53 53 N 16 968 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 53 53 N 16 968 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 53 53 NE 20 968 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 52 52 NE 20 968 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 52 52 NE 20 968 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 50 50 NE 20 968 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 49 49 NE 20 968 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 49 49 NE 20 968 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 49 49 NE 22 968 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 50 50 NE 22 968 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 49 49 NE 22 968 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 50 50 NE 22 968 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 54 54 NE 22 968 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 55 56 NE 22 968 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 58 60 NE 20 1224 3540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 61 63 NE 20 1804 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 63 65 NE 20 2189 3540 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 64 66 NE 15 2381 3540 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 65 66 NE 15 2381 3540 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 65 65 NE 15 2189 3540 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 61 61 NE 16 1418 3540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 55 55 NE 16 968 3540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 53 53 NE 16 968 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 53 53 N 10 968 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 53 53 N 10 968 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 53 53 N 10 968 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 52 52 NE 15 968 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 52 52 NE 15 968 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 52 52 NE 15 968 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 49 49 NE 15 968 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 48 48 NE 15 968 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 48 48 NE 15 968 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 48 48 NE 17 968 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 49 49 NE 17 968 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 48 48 NE 17 968 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 50 50 NE 18 968 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 53 53 NE 18 968 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 55 56 NE 18 968 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 58 60 NE 16 1224 3540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 62 64 NE 16 1997 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 64 66 NE 16 2381 3540 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 64 66 N 13 2381 3540 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 66 67 N 13 2573 3540 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 66 66 N 13 2381 3540 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 62 62 N 12 1611 3540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 56 56 N 12 968 3540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 54 54 N 12 968 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 54 54 N 10 968 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 54 54 N 10 968 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 54 54 N 10 968 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 53 53 NE 14 968 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 53 53 NE 14 968 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 53 53 NE 14 968 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 50 50 NE 14 968 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 49 49 NE 14 968 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 49 49 NE 14 968 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 49 49 N 15 968 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 50 50 N 15 968 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 49 49 N 15 968 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 50 50 NE 15 968 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 54 54 NE 15 968 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 55 56 NE 15 968 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 58 59 NE 14 1030 3540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 62 64 NE 14 1997 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 64 66 NE 14 2381 3540 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 65 67 NE 15 2573 3540 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 66 67 NE 15 2573 3540 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 66 66 NE 15 2381 3540 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 63 63 NE 15 1804 3540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 58 58 NE 15 968 3540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 55 55 NE 15 968 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 56 56 NE 12 968 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 55 55 NE 12 968 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 55 55 NE 12 968 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 55 55 NE 14 968 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 55 55 NE 14 968 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 54 54 NE 14 968 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 52 52 NE 15 968 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 51 51 NE 15 968 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 51 51 NE 15 968 3540 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst