Detailed Predictions for: Laguna
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 32.9339606586, -116.481859729, 5630
LZ Altitude (f): 2210
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

23 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 69 69 WSW 8 13 4957 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 69 69 S 9 17 4957 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 68 68 W 8 14 4957 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 67 67 SSW 11 19 4957 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 66 66 S 9 16 4957 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 65 65 SSE 9 16 4957 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 66 66 ESE 8 14 4957 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 69 69 ESE 12 20 4957 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 72 72 E 11 19 7160 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 74 75 E 10 17 11323 7066 1436 Blue 1
10 AM Wed 76 78 S 6 13 14118 11042 5412 Blue 3
11 AM Wed 78 81 S 8 13 15254 13988 8358 White 6
12 Noon Wed 79 83 S 8 13 15668 14880 9250 White 8
1 PM Wed 78 82 S 8 14 15461 14439 8809 White 7
2 PM Wed 78 82 WSW 8 14 15461 14439 8809 White 7
3 PM Wed 76 79 WSW 9 16 14574 12383 6753 Blue 4
4 PM Wed 74 76 WSW 10 17 12660 8545 2915 Blue 1
5 PM Wed 71 73 WSW 11 19 8680 5630 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 69 69 WSW 12 20 4957 5630 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 67 67 WSW 13 21 4957 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 66 66 SW 13 23 4957 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 65 65 SW 13 21 4957 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 64 64 SW 13 21 4957 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 63 63 SW 12 21 4957 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 62 62 SW 12 20 4957 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 61 61 SW 12 20 4957 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 60 60 SW 12 20 4957 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 58 58 SW 12 20 4957 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 57 57 SW 12 20 4957 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 57 57 SW 12 20 4957 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 59 59 SW 11 19 4957 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 63 63 SW 11 19 4957 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 67 69 SW 11 18 4957 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 71 74 SW 10 17 9900 5630 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 73 79 SW 10 17 14574 12383 6753 Blue 4
11 AM Thu 75 82 SW 10 17 15461 14439 8809 White 7
12 Noon Thu 76 85 SW 11 19 16081 15735 10105 White 10
1 PM Thu 75 84 WSW 13 23 15874 15312 9682 White 9
2 PM Thu 76 84 WSW 16 25 15874 15312 9682 White 9
3 PM Thu 75 82 WSW 16 26 15461 14439 8809 White 7
4 PM Thu 73 78 WSW 16 26 14118 11042 5412 Blue 3
5 PM Thu 71 74 WSW 16 25 9900 5630 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 68 69 WSW 14 25 4957 5630 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 66 66 WSW 14 24 4957 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 63 63 WSW 13 23 4957 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 61 61 WSW 12 21 4957 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 60 60 W 12 21 4957 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 60 60 W 12 20 4957 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 61 61 W 12 20 4957 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 62 62 W 12 20 4957 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 61 61 W 12 20 4957 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 59 59 W 11 19 4957 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 57 57 W 11 18 4957 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 57 57 W 10 17 4957 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 60 60 W 8 14 4957 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 65 65 W 6 13 4957 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 71 73 WNW 5 11 8680 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 76 79 NW 5 10 14574 12383 6753 Blue 4
10 AM Fri 79 85 N 4 10 16081 15735 10105 White 10
11 AM Fri 81 89 N 5 11 16903 16903 11273 White 14
12 Noon Fri 80 89 NNW 8 13 16903 16903 11273 White 14
1 PM Fri 80 89 WNW 10 18 16903 16903 11273 White 14
2 PM Fri 78 86 W 12 21 16287 16287 10657 White 11
3 PM Fri 76 83 W 13 23 15668 14880 9250 White 8
4 PM Fri 75 80 W 14 24 15019 13488 7858 Blue 5
5 PM Fri 74 76 W 14 24 12660 8545 2915 Blue 1
6 PM Fri 73 74 W 13 23 9900 5630 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 71 71 W 12 21 4957 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 70 70 W 11 19 4957 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 68 68 W 11 19 4957 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 67 67 W 12 20 4957 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 66 66 W 12 20 4957 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 66 66 W 11 19 4957 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 65 65 WSW 11 19 4957 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 64 64 WSW 10 18 4957 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 61 61 WSW 9 16 4957 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 59 59 WSW 8 14 4957 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 59 59 WSW 8 14 4957 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 63 63 WSW 8 14 4957 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 68 68 WSW 8 14 4957 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 73 74 SW 4 9 9900 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 76 79 SW 4 9 14574 12383 6753 Blue 4
10 AM Sat 77 82 SW 4 9 15461 14439 8809 White 7
11 AM Sat 79 86 E 6 13 16287 16287 10657 White 11
12 Noon Sat 80 89 E 6 13 16903 16903 11273 White 14
1 PM Sat 82 91 E 6 13 17312 17312 11682 White 16
2 PM Sat 84 92 ENE 8 13 17516 17516 11886 White 17
3 PM Sat 83 90 ENE 8 13 17108 17108 11478 White 15
4 PM Sat 84 89 ENE 8 13 16903 16903 11273 White 14
5 PM Sat 82 84 NW 8 14 15874 15312 9682 White 9
6 PM Sat 81 82 NW 8 14 15461 14439 8809 White 7
7 PM Sat 80 80 NW 8 14 15019 13488 7858 Blue 5
8 PM Sat 79 79 N 5 11 14574 12383 6753 Blue 4
9 PM Sat 78 78 N 5 11 14118 11042 5412 Blue 3
10 PM Sat 77 77 N 5 11 13651 9744 4114 Blue 2
11 PM Sat 75 75 NNW 4 10 11323 7066 1436 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sun 73 73 NNW 4 10 8680 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 71 71 NNW 4 10 4957 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 68 68 N 5 10 4957 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 65 65 N 5 10 4957 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 64 64 N 5 10 4957 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 65 65 N 5 10 4957 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 67 67 N 5 10 4957 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 71 71 N 5 10 4957 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 74 75 E 5 11 11323 7066 1436 Blue 1
9 AM Sun 76 79 E 5 11 14574 12383 6753 Blue 4
10 AM Sun 77 82 E 5 11 15461 14439 8809 White 7
11 AM Sun 79 86 E 10 17 16287 16287 10657 White 11
12 Noon Sun 81 89 E 10 17 16903 16903 11273 White 14
1 PM Sun 83 91 E 10 17 17312 17312 11682 White 16
2 PM Sun 86 93 E 10 18 17720 17720 12090 White 18
3 PM Sun 88 94 E 10 18 17924 17924 12294 White 19
4 PM Sun 88 92 E 10 18 17516 17516 11886 White 17
5 PM Sun 89 91 ENE 8 14 17312 17312 11682 White 16
6 PM Sun 86 87 ENE 8 14 16492 16492 10862 White 12
7 PM Sun 83 83 ENE 8 14 15668 14880 9250 White 8
8 PM Sun 79 79 NW 6 13 14574 12383 6753 Blue 4
9 PM Sun 77 77 NW 6 13 13651 9744 4114 Blue 2
10 PM Sun 75 75 NW 6 13 11323 7066 1436 Blue 1
11 PM Sun 75 75 WNW 6 12 11323 7066 1436 Blue 1
12 Midnight Mon 75 75 WNW 6 12 11323 7066 1436 Blue 1
1 AM Mon 75 75 WNW 6 12 11323 7066 1436 Blue 1
2 AM Mon 75 75 NW 6 12 11323 7066 1436 Blue 1
3 AM Mon 72 72 NW 6 12 7160 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 69 69 NW 6 12 4957 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 68 68 ENE 6 12 4957 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 70 70 ENE 6 12 4957 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 73 73 ENE 6 12 8680 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 76 77 ESE 8 14 13651 9744 4114 Blue 2
9 AM Mon 76 79 ESE 8 14 14574 12383 6753 Blue 4
10 AM Mon 76 80 ESE 8 14 15019 13488 7858 Blue 5
11 AM Mon 77 83 E 9 17 15668 14880 9250 White 8
12 Noon Mon 78 84 E 9 17 15874 15312 9682 White 9
1 PM Mon 81 88 E 9 17 16698 16698 11068 White 13
2 PM Mon 84 90 E 10 17 17108 17108 11478 White 15
3 PM Mon 87 92 E 10 17 17516 17516 11886 White 17
4 PM Mon 88 91 E 10 17 17312 17312 11682 White 16
5 PM Mon 89 91 E 9 17 17312 17312 11682 White 16
6 PM Mon 88 88 E 9 17 16698 16698 11068 White 13
7 PM Mon 85 85 E 9 17 16081 15735 10105 White 10
8 PM Mon 83 83 E 6 12 15668 14880 9250 White 8
9 PM Mon 81 81 E 6 12 15254 13988 8358 White 6
10 PM Mon 80 80 E 6 12 15019 13488 7858 Blue 5

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst