Detailed Predictions for: Laguna
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 32.9339606586, -116.481859729, 5630
LZ Altitude (f): 2210
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 5 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Tue 54 54 ENE 7 15 5089 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 54 54 ENE 6 14 5089 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 54 54 ENE 6 13 5089 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 54 54 ENE 7 15 5089 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 53 53 ENE 7 16 5089 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 53 53 ENE 7 16 5089 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 52 52 ENE 7 16 5089 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 43 43 N 2 16 5089 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 52 52 ENE 7 16 5089 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 55 56 ENE 7 12 5089 5630 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 59 61 ENE 7 9 7789 5630 0 Blue 1
11 AM Tue 64 67 ENE 6 9 10523 8470 2840 Blue 6
12 Noon Tue 67 70 ENE 5 8 12348 10388 4758 Blue 9
1 PM Tue 69 71 ENE 4 6 14321 11287 5657 Blue 10
2 PM Tue 70 71 ENE 4 5 14321 11287 5657 Blue 10
3 PM Tue 70 70 NE 3 5 12348 10388 4758 Blue 9
4 PM Tue 70 70 NE 3 5 12348 10388 4758 Blue 9
5 PM Tue 67 67 ENE 4 5 10523 8470 2840 Blue 6
6 PM Tue 64 64 ENE 4 9 8492 7780 2150 Blue 3
7 PM Tue 61 61 ENE 5 10 7789 5630 0 Blue 1
8 PM Tue 56 56 ENE 5 11 5089 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 56 56 ENE 5 11 5089 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 56 56 ENE 5 10 5089 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 56 56 ENE 4 10 5089 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 55 55 ENE 4 9 5089 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 55 55 ENE 4 8 5089 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 55 55 NE 3 6 5089 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 54 54 NE 2 4 5089 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 53 53 ENE 2 5 5089 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 55 55 ENE 2 5 5089 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 53 53 ENE 2 6 5089 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 53 53 E 3 7 5089 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 57 57 E 2 5 5089 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 61 62 E 1 2 8005 5877 247 Blue 2
10 AM Wed 64 66 S 0 0 9371 8253 2623 Blue 5
11 AM Wed 68 71 WSW 3 4 14321 11287 5657 Blue 10
12 Noon Wed 66 69 WSW 4 6 11931 9313 3683 Blue 8
1 PM Wed 67 69 W 8 11 11931 9313 3683 Blue 8
2 PM Wed 70 71 W 10 13 14321 11287 5657 Blue 10
3 PM Wed 63 63 W 11 15 8274 7147 1517 Blue 2
4 PM Wed 62 62 W 6 10 8005 5877 247 Blue 2
5 PM Wed 63 63 W 6 9 8274 7147 1517 Blue 2
6 PM Wed 57 57 W 5 10 5089 5630 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 51 51 W 5 11 5089 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 55 55 W 3 8 5089 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 50 50 W 4 8 5089 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 50 50 W 4 9 5089 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 50 50 W 5 10 5089 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 48 48 W 5 10 5089 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 48 48 W 5 12 5089 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 48 48 W 5 11 5089 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 46 46 W 4 9 5089 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 47 47 W 4 10 5089 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 46 46 W 5 10 5089 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 46 46 W 6 12 5089 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 46 46 W 6 13 5089 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 47 47 WSW 5 11 5089 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 50 51 WSW 5 10 5089 5630 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 53 53 WSW 7 10 5089 5630 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 56 59 WSW 7 10 5901 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 56 58 WSW 8 11 5089 5630 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 57 59 WSW 8 11 5901 5630 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 58 59 WSW 8 11 5901 5630 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 58 58 WSW 9 12 5089 5630 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 56 56 WSW 8 13 5089 5630 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 53 53 WSW 8 13 5089 5630 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 50 50 WSW 6 12 5089 5630 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 48 48 WSW 6 11 5089 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 43 43 W 6 11 5089 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 47 47 W 4 8 5089 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 46 46 W 5 11 5089 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 43 43 W 4 9 5089 5630 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst