Detailed Predictions for: Laguna
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 32.9339606586, -116.481859729, 5630
LZ Altitude (f): 2210
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

21 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 62 62 E 10 17 4990 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 61 61 E 11 18 4990 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 60 60 E 11 18 4990 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 60 60 E 11 19 4990 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 60 60 E 10 18 4990 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 59 59 E 11 19 4990 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 60 60 E 11 19 4990 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 60 60 E 11 19 4990 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 65 65 E 10 18 4990 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 72 74 E 10 18 8514 6299 669 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 73 76 E 10 18 8984 7771 2141 Blue 2
11 AM Tue 75 80 E 11 19 9731 9166 3536 Blue 6
12 Noon Tue 76 82 E 11 19 9986 9577 3947 Blue 8
1 PM Tue 77 83 E 11 19 10159 9714 4084 Blue 9
2 PM Tue 78 84 ENE 10 18 10551 9841 4211 Blue 10
3 PM Tue 78 82 ENE 9 17 9986 9577 3947 Blue 8
4 PM Tue 78 80 ENE 9 16 9731 9166 3536 Blue 6
5 PM Tue 77 78 ENE 8 13 9398 8754 3124 Blue 4
6 PM Tue 76 76 E 6 12 8984 7771 2141 Blue 2
7 PM Tue 70 70 E 5 11 5492 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 65 65 E 5 10 4990 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 64 64 E 4 9 4990 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 63 63 ENE 3 8 4990 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 64 64 NE 2 6 4990 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 64 64 NNE 2 6 4990 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 64 64 NNW 2 6 4990 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 63 63 NW 2 6 4990 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 63 63 NNW 2 6 4990 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 62 62 NNW 2 6 4990 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 62 62 NNW 2 6 4990 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 62 62 N 3 8 4990 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 63 63 NE 3 9 4990 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 69 69 ENE 4 10 4990 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 76 78 ENE 5 11 9398 8754 3124 Blue 4
10 AM Wed 77 80 ENE 6 12 9731 9166 3536 Blue 6
11 AM Wed 79 84 ENE 8 13 10551 9841 4211 Blue 10
12 Noon Wed 80 86 ENE 8 14 10970 10095 4465 Blue 11
1 PM Wed 80 86 ENE 9 16 10970 10095 4465 Blue 11
2 PM Wed 80 85 ENE 9 17 10761 9968 4338 Blue 11
3 PM Wed 80 84 NNE 10 18 10551 9841 4211 Blue 10
4 PM Wed 79 81 NW 10 18 9859 9372 3742 Blue 7
5 PM Wed 78 79 WNW 11 19 9604 8961 3331 Blue 5
6 PM Wed 75 75 WNW 11 19 8776 7057 1427 Blue 1
7 PM Wed 69 69 WNW 11 19 4990 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 65 65 WNW 11 19 4990 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 65 65 WNW 12 20 4990 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 64 64 WNW 12 21 4990 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 64 64 W 13 21 4990 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 64 64 W 13 23 4990 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 64 64 W 14 23 4990 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 64 64 W 14 24 4990 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 63 63 W 13 23 4990 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 64 64 W 13 23 4990 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 63 63 W 13 21 4990 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 64 64 WNW 12 20 4990 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 65 65 WNW 11 19 4990 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 69 69 WNW 10 18 4990 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 75 76 WNW 11 18 8984 7771 2141 Blue 2
10 AM Thu 76 79 WNW 11 19 9604 8961 3331 Blue 5
11 AM Thu 78 82 WNW 12 20 9986 9577 3947 Blue 8
12 Noon Thu 78 82 WNW 12 21 9986 9577 3947 Blue 8
1 PM Thu 78 83 WNW 13 21 10159 9714 4084 Blue 9
2 PM Thu 78 82 WNW 13 23 9986 9577 3947 Blue 8
3 PM Thu 78 81 W 14 23 9859 9372 3742 Blue 7
4 PM Thu 77 79 W 14 24 9604 8961 3331 Blue 5
5 PM Thu 75 76 W 13 23 8984 7771 2141 Blue 2
6 PM Thu 72 72 W 12 20 7096 5630 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 66 66 W 10 18 4990 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 62 62 W 9 16 4990 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 61 61 W 8 14 4990 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 61 61 W 8 13 4990 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 60 60 W 6 13 4990 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 60 60 WSW 6 12 4990 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 60 60 S 6 12 4990 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 60 60 SE 6 12 4990 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 59 59 ESE 6 12 4990 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 60 60 ESE 6 12 4990 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 59 59 E 6 10 4990 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 60 60 E 6 10 4990 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 61 61 E 6 10 4990 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 66 66 ESE 8 10 4990 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 72 73 ESE 8 10 7824 5630 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 74 77 ESE 8 10 9191 8449 2819 Blue 3
11 AM Fri 75 78 E 10 16 9398 8754 3124 Blue 4
12 Noon Fri 76 80 E 10 16 9731 9166 3536 Blue 6
1 PM Fri 76 80 E 10 16 9731 9166 3536 Blue 6
2 PM Fri 76 80 ESE 10 18 9731 9166 3536 Blue 6
3 PM Fri 76 79 ESE 10 18 9604 8961 3331 Blue 5
4 PM Fri 75 77 ESE 10 18 9191 8449 2819 Blue 3
5 PM Fri 74 75 E 9 17 8776 7057 1427 Blue 1
6 PM Fri 71 71 E 9 17 6322 5630 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 65 65 E 9 17 4990 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 60 60 S 3 9 4990 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 60 60 S 3 9 4990 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 60 60 S 3 9 4990 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 59 59 NNW 3 6 4990 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 59 59 NNW 3 6 4990 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 59 59 NNW 3 6 4990 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 58 58 SSW 4 8 4990 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 58 58 SSW 4 8 4990 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 59 59 SSW 4 8 4990 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 58 58 NNW 3 8 4990 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 59 59 NNW 3 8 4990 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 60 60 NNW 3 8 4990 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 64 64 E 4 8 4990 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 71 72 E 4 8 7096 5630 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 72 75 E 4 8 8776 7057 1427 Blue 1
11 AM Sat 74 77 E 8 16 9191 8449 2819 Blue 3
12 Noon Sat 74 78 E 8 16 9398 8754 3124 Blue 4
1 PM Sat 74 78 E 8 16 9398 8754 3124 Blue 4
2 PM Sat 74 78 E 6 18 9398 8754 3124 Blue 4
3 PM Sat 74 77 E 6 18 9191 8449 2819 Blue 3
4 PM Sat 73 75 E 6 18 8776 7057 1427 Blue 1
5 PM Sat 72 72 NW 6 17 7096 5630 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 69 69 NW 6 17 4990 5630 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 63 63 NW 6 17 4990 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 58 58 N 4 8 4990 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 58 58 N 4 8 4990 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 58 58 N 4 8 4990 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 57 57 NNE 5 9 4990 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 57 57 NNE 5 9 4990 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 57 57 NNE 5 9 4990 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 56 56 NE 6 11 4990 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 56 56 NE 6 11 4990 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 57 57 NE 6 11 4990 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 56 56 NE 8 12 4990 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 57 57 NE 8 12 4990 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 58 58 NE 8 12 4990 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 63 63 NE 6 11 4990 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 70 71 NE 6 11 6322 5630 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 72 74 NE 6 11 8514 6299 669 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 73 77 NE 9 17 9191 8449 2819 Blue 3
12 Noon Sun 74 79 NE 9 17 9604 8961 3331 Blue 5
1 PM Sun 74 79 NE 9 17 9604 8961 3331 Blue 5
2 PM Sun 74 78 NE 9 18 9398 8754 3124 Blue 4
3 PM Sun 74 77 NE 9 18 9191 8449 2819 Blue 3
4 PM Sun 73 75 NE 9 18 8776 7057 1427 Blue 1
5 PM Sun 71 72 NNW 9 18 7096 5630 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 68 68 NNW 9 18 4990 5630 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 61 61 NNW 9 18 4990 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 57 57 NW 8 10 4990 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 56 56 NW 8 10 4990 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 56 56 NW 8 10 4990 5630 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst