Detailed Predictions for: Lake Elsinore
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.6298130238, -117.371441183, 2650
LZ Altitude (f): 1350
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 6 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Wed 60 60 WNW 1 5 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 59 59 WNW 2 6 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 59 59 WNW 2 6 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 58 58 W 2 5 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 57 57 SSW 2 5 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 56 56 S 3 8 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 56 56 S 3 8 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 55 55 S 3 9 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 57 57 S 4 9 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 61 62 S 3 8 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 66 68 SSW 3 8 2605 2650 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 69 71 SW 6 12 4237 2650 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Wed 70 72 SW 9 16 4571 3095 445 Blue 4
1 PM Wed 70 72 WSW 11 19 4571 3095 445 Blue 4
2 PM Wed 69 70 WSW 10 18 3901 2650 0 Blue 2
3 PM Wed 68 68 SW 11 19 2605 2650 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 66 66 SW 11 19 2160 2650 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 60 60 SW 8 13 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 58 58 S 4 9 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 56 56 S 2 5 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 55 55 SSW 1 1 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 54 54 WSW 1 5 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 53 53 W 2 5 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 53 53 WSW 2 5 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 52 52 SSW 2 6 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 51 51 SSW 2 6 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 50 50 SSW 2 6 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 50 50 SW 3 8 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 48 48 WSW 3 8 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 48 48 WSW 4 9 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 48 48 SW 4 10 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 48 48 SW 4 10 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 49 49 WSW 3 8 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 52 53 NW 2 5 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 55 57 NNW 1 5 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 57 59 NW 3 9 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 59 61 W 6 12 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 60 62 WSW 10 17 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 60 61 WSW 11 19 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 58 58 WSW 12 20 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 56 56 WSW 12 20 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 54 54 WSW 12 21 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 52 52 WSW 12 21 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 50 50 WSW 12 21 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 50 50 WSW 13 21 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 49 49 WSW 13 21 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 49 49 WSW 13 21 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 49 49 WSW 13 21 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 49 49 WSW 12 21 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 48 48 WSW 12 21 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 47 47 WSW 12 21 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 46 46 SW 12 21 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 45 45 SW 12 20 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 44 44 SSW 10 17 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 43 43 S 6 12 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 44 44 S 5 11 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 45 45 SE 6 13 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 48 49 NE 10 18 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 52 54 N 13 23 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 55 57 N 17 27 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 58 60 N 20 32 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 59 61 N 21 34 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 60 61 N 21 34 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 59 59 N 20 32 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 57 57 N 20 31 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 55 55 NNW 20 32 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 52 52 NW 21 33 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 50 50 NW 21 34 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 49 49 NW 21 34 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 49 49 NW 20 32 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 49 49 NW 19 31 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 49 49 NW 17 27 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 48 48 NNW 14 25 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 48 48 NNW 13 21 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 47 47 NNW 12 20 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 46 46 NNW 11 19 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 46 46 NNW 11 18 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 45 45 NNW 11 18 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 45 45 NNW 11 18 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 46 46 NNW 12 20 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 48 48 NNW 12 20 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 52 53 NNW 12 20 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 55 57 N 16 25 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 58 60 N 16 25 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 61 63 N 16 25 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 62 64 N 11 19 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 62 63 N 11 19 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 61 61 N 11 19 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 59 59 N 13 21 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 57 57 N 13 21 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 54 54 N 13 21 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 52 52 NNW 11 19 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 51 51 NNW 11 19 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 50 50 NNW 11 19 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 50 50 NNW 6 13 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 50 50 NNW 6 13 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 50 50 NNW 6 13 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 49 49 NW 14 23 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 48 48 NW 14 23 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 48 48 NW 14 23 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 48 48 NW 13 23 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 47 47 NW 13 23 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 46 46 NW 13 23 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 48 48 NW 16 25 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 51 51 NW 16 25 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 56 57 NW 16 25 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 60 61 NNW 12 20 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 64 66 NNW 12 20 2160 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 67 69 NNW 12 20 3116 2650 0 Blue 1
1 PM Sun 68 69 N 10 18 3116 2650 0 Blue 1
2 PM Sun 68 69 N 10 18 3116 2650 0 Blue 1
3 PM Sun 66 66 N 10 18 2160 2650 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 64 64 NNW 13 23 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 61 61 NNW 13 23 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 58 58 NNW 13 23 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 56 56 NW 13 21 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 55 55 NW 13 21 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 55 55 NW 13 21 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 54 54 NW 10 18 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 54 54 NW 10 18 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 54 54 NW 10 18 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 53 53 NW 11 18 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 52 52 NW 11 18 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 51 51 NW 11 18 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 50 50 NW 11 19 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 50 50 NW 11 19 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 50 50 NW 11 19 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 51 51 NW 10 17 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 54 54 NW 10 17 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 58 58 NW 10 17 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 62 63 N 5 11 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 65 67 N 5 11 2384 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 68 70 N 5 11 3901 2650 0 Blue 2
1 PM Mon 69 70 NNW 5 11 3901 2650 0 Blue 2
2 PM Mon 69 70 NNW 5 11 3901 2650 0 Blue 2
3 PM Mon 67 67 NNW 5 11 2384 2650 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 64 64 W 8 14 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 62 62 W 8 14 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 58 58 W 8 14 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 56 56 W 8 13 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 55 55 W 8 13 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 55 55 W 8 13 1860 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 55 55 WNW 4 9 1860 2650 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst