Detailed Predictions for: Lake Elsinore
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.6298130238, -117.371441183, 2650
LZ Altitude (f): 1350
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

21 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 69 69 N 2 6 2464 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 69 69 N 2 6 2464 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 68 68 NNE 2 6 2464 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 69 69 N 3 8 2464 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 69 69 N 3 8 2464 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 68 68 NE 3 8 2464 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 68 68 NE 3 8 2464 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 69 69 NE 3 8 2464 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 74 74 NNE 3 8 2464 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 78 79 NE 3 8 3099 2701 51 Blue 4
10 AM Tue 82 85 ENE 3 9 5021 3554 904 Blue 10
11 AM Tue 86 91 E 4 9 8806 7208 4558 Blue 16
12 Noon Tue 90 96 E 4 9 9726 9163 6513 Blue 21
1 PM Tue 92 98 SSW 4 9 9973 9558 6908 Blue 23
2 PM Tue 94 100 SW 9 16 10512 9821 7171 Blue 25
3 PM Tue 94 98 SW 10 18 9973 9558 6908 Blue 23
4 PM Tue 93 96 SW 12 20 9726 9163 6513 Blue 21
5 PM Tue 90 91 WSW 13 23 8806 7208 4558 Blue 16
6 PM Tue 85 85 W 10 17 5021 3554 904 Blue 10
7 PM Tue 78 78 NW 6 12 2966 2650 0 Blue 3
8 PM Tue 76 76 N 3 8 2702 2650 0 Blue 1
9 PM Tue 75 75 N 2 6 2569 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 73 73 NNE 2 5 2464 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 72 72 NE 2 6 2464 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 72 72 NNE 2 5 2464 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 71 71 N 1 5 2464 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 71 71 NNW 1 5 2464 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 71 71 NNW 2 6 2464 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 72 72 NW 2 6 2464 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 71 71 NW 3 8 2464 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 69 69 NNW 2 6 2464 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 69 69 NNW 2 6 2464 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 74 74 NNW 2 6 2464 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 77 78 NNW 2 6 2966 2650 0 Blue 3
10 AM Wed 78 81 N 3 9 3363 2965 315 Blue 6
11 AM Wed 83 88 N 4 10 7311 4882 2232 Blue 13
12 Noon Wed 88 94 NNW 5 11 9404 8766 6116 Blue 19
1 PM Wed 91 97 NW 6 13 9850 9361 6711 Blue 22
2 PM Wed 92 97 WNW 9 16 9850 9361 6711 Blue 22
3 PM Wed 92 96 WNW 11 19 9726 9163 6513 Blue 21
4 PM Wed 93 95 W 13 23 9603 8965 6315 Blue 20
5 PM Wed 90 91 W 14 24 8806 7208 4558 Blue 16
6 PM Wed 84 84 W 14 24 4175 3360 710 Blue 9
7 PM Wed 77 77 W 13 21 2834 2650 0 Blue 2
8 PM Wed 76 76 W 11 19 2702 2650 0 Blue 1
9 PM Wed 75 75 WNW 8 14 2569 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 72 72 WNW 4 10 2464 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 71 71 NW 2 6 2464 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 71 71 WNW 3 8 2464 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 70 70 WNW 5 11 2464 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 70 70 W 6 13 2464 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 69 69 W 6 13 2464 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 69 69 WNW 6 12 2464 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 69 69 WNW 5 11 2464 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 68 68 WNW 4 9 2464 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 68 68 WNW 3 8 2464 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 73 73 WNW 3 8 2464 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 75 76 WNW 2 6 2702 2650 0 Blue 1
10 AM Thu 76 79 WNW 2 6 3099 2701 51 Blue 4
11 AM Thu 81 85 W 3 8 5021 3554 904 Blue 10
12 Noon Thu 85 90 W 5 11 8606 6504 3854 Blue 15
1 PM Thu 88 94 W 9 16 9404 8766 6116 Blue 19
2 PM Thu 90 95 WSW 12 20 9603 8965 6315 Blue 20
3 PM Thu 89 93 WSW 14 24 9205 8513 5863 Blue 18
4 PM Thu 90 92 WSW 16 25 9006 7876 5226 Blue 17
5 PM Thu 86 87 WSW 16 25 6596 4160 1510 Blue 12
6 PM Thu 81 81 W 12 20 3363 2965 315 Blue 6
7 PM Thu 74 74 W 8 14 2464 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 72 72 WNW 4 10 2464 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 71 71 WSW 2 6 2464 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 68 68 S 2 6 2464 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 67 67 SE 2 6 2464 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 67 67 SSE 2 6 2464 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 67 67 SSE 2 6 2464 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 66 66 S 3 8 2464 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 65 65 S 4 9 2464 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 65 65 SSE 4 10 2464 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 65 65 SSE 5 4 2464 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 64 64 SSE 5 4 2464 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 64 64 SSE 5 4 2464 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 70 70 E 2 4 2464 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 72 73 E 2 4 2464 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 73 76 E 2 4 2702 2650 0 Blue 1
11 AM Fri 78 82 SSE 4 6 3564 3096 446 Blue 7
12 Noon Fri 83 88 SSE 4 6 7311 4882 2232 Blue 13
1 PM Fri 86 91 SSE 4 6 8806 7208 4558 Blue 16
2 PM Fri 88 93 SW 8 11 9205 8513 5863 Blue 18
3 PM Fri 87 91 SW 8 11 8806 7208 4558 Blue 16
4 PM Fri 88 90 SW 8 11 8606 6504 3854 Blue 15
5 PM Fri 85 86 SW 10 16 5836 3858 1208 Blue 11
6 PM Fri 80 80 SW 10 16 3231 2833 183 Blue 5
7 PM Fri 73 73 SW 10 16 2464 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 72 72 SSW 5 6 2464 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 70 70 SSW 5 6 2464 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 68 68 SSW 5 6 2464 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 67 67 NNE 2 3 2464 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 66 66 NNE 2 3 2464 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 66 66 NNE 2 3 2464 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 66 66 ENE 2 3 2464 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 65 65 ENE 2 3 2464 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 65 65 ENE 2 3 2464 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 65 65 NNE 2 3 2464 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 64 64 NNE 2 3 2464 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 64 64 NNE 2 3 2464 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 69 69 NNE 2 4 2464 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 71 72 NNE 2 4 2464 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 72 74 NNE 2 4 2464 2650 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 76 80 W 3 6 3231 2833 183 Blue 5
12 Noon Sat 80 85 W 3 6 5021 3554 904 Blue 10
1 PM Sat 83 88 W 3 6 7311 4882 2232 Blue 13
2 PM Sat 84 88 W 6 11 7311 4882 2232 Blue 13
3 PM Sat 84 87 W 6 11 6596 4160 1510 Blue 12
4 PM Sat 85 87 W 6 11 6596 4160 1510 Blue 12
5 PM Sat 82 83 W 10 16 3871 3228 578 Blue 8
6 PM Sat 77 77 W 10 16 2834 2650 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sat 70 70 W 10 16 2464 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 69 69 N 6 8 2464 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 68 68 N 6 8 2464 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 66 66 N 6 8 2464 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 64 64 WNW 2 3 2464 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 64 64 WNW 2 3 2464 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 64 64 WNW 2 3 2464 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 64 64 NNW 1 2 2464 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 63 63 NNW 1 2 2464 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 63 63 NNW 1 2 2464 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 63 63 N 2 4 2464 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 62 62 N 2 4 2464 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 62 62 N 2 4 2464 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 67 67 NNE 2 4 2464 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 69 70 NNE 2 4 2464 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 70 72 NNE 2 4 2464 2650 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 75 79 NW 3 5 3099 2701 51 Blue 4
12 Noon Sun 79 84 NW 3 5 4175 3360 710 Blue 9
1 PM Sun 82 87 NW 3 5 6596 4160 1510 Blue 12
2 PM Sun 84 88 WNW 5 11 7311 4882 2232 Blue 13
3 PM Sun 83 86 WNW 5 11 5836 3858 1208 Blue 11
4 PM Sun 84 86 WNW 5 11 5836 3858 1208 Blue 11
5 PM Sun 81 82 W 11 14 3564 3096 446 Blue 7
6 PM Sun 76 76 W 11 14 2702 2650 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sun 69 69 W 11 14 2464 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 68 68 NNE 5 8 2464 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 66 66 NNE 5 8 2464 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 64 64 NNE 5 8 2464 2650 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst