Detailed Predictions for: Lake Elsinore
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.6298130238, -117.371441183, 2650
LZ Altitude (f): 1350
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time UTC:

241105/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 47 47 NE 1 2 2631 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 45 45 NE 1 3 2631 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 44 44 NE 1 2 2631 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 43 43 N 1 2 2631 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 42 42 N 1 2 2631 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 42 42 NE 1 2 2631 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 42 42 ENE 1 3 2631 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 41 41 E 2 6 2631 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 49 49 NNE 0 1 2631 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 57 59 N 1 2 2631 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 65 68 NNE 0 0 5665 5021 2371 Blue 4
11 AM Tue 70 74 SW 1 1 6817 5845 3195 Blue 10
12 Noon Tue 72 76 SW 3 3 7014 6706 4056 Blue 12
1 PM Tue 74 77 SW 3 4 7201 6804 4154 Blue 13
2 PM Tue 73 75 W 5 5 6916 6132 3482 Blue 11
3 PM Tue 72 73 W 6 8 6718 5751 3101 Blue 9
4 PM Tue 71 71 W 6 7 5855 5661 3011 Blue 7
5 PM Tue 66 66 WSW 5 7 5474 3925 1275 Blue 2
6 PM Tue 62 62 SW 4 8 3361 2650 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 57 57 S 3 6 2631 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 53 53 S 3 6 2631 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 51 51 SSE 2 5 2631 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 48 48 SSE 2 6 2631 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 47 47 ESE 1 3 2631 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 46 46 ESE 2 4 2631 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 45 45 ESE 1 3 2631 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 43 43 E 2 5 2631 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 42 42 ESE 2 5 2631 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 40 40 NE 0 1 2631 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 39 39 NNE 2 4 2631 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 39 39 NNE 3 7 2631 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 39 39 N 4 9 2631 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 45 45 N 5 10 2631 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 52 54 N 6 7 2631 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 58 61 NNE 8 9 2756 2650 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 62 66 NE 8 9 5474 3925 1275 Blue 2
12 Noon Wed 65 69 NNE 9 10 5710 5462 2812 Blue 5
1 PM Wed 68 71 NE 9 11 5855 5661 3011 Blue 7
2 PM Wed 68 70 NE 9 10 5755 5605 2955 Blue 6
3 PM Wed 67 68 NE 12 13 5665 5021 2371 Blue 4
4 PM Wed 66 66 NE 12 13 5474 3925 1275 Blue 2
5 PM Wed 60 60 NE 10 13 2631 2650 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 54 54 NNE 9 19 2631 2650 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 49 49 NE 7 16 2631 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 45 45 NNE 7 15 2631 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 43 43 NNE 7 15 2631 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 44 44 NNE 7 15 2631 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 42 42 N 7 15 2631 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 40 40 N 7 15 2631 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 39 39 N 6 14 2631 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 38 38 NNE 6 14 2631 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 37 37 NNE 6 13 2631 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 36 36 NNE 6 14 2631 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 36 36 NNE 6 14 2631 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 37 37 N 6 14 2631 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 37 37 N 7 15 2631 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 44 44 N 6 14 2631 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 51 53 NNE 7 9 2631 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 57 60 NE 9 10 2631 2650 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 62 66 NE 8 10 5474 3925 1275 Blue 2
12 Noon Thu 65 69 ENE 7 8 5710 5462 2812 Blue 5
1 PM Thu 67 70 NE 5 6 5755 5605 2955 Blue 6
2 PM Thu 68 70 NNE 5 5 5755 5605 2955 Blue 6
3 PM Thu 69 70 NNE 5 5 5755 5605 2955 Blue 6
4 PM Thu 68 68 N 4 5 5665 5021 2371 Blue 4
5 PM Thu 61 61 NNE 4 6 2756 2650 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 56 56 NNE 4 10 2631 2650 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 52 52 NE 6 12 2631 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 49 49 NE 5 11 2631 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 48 48 NNE 4 10 2631 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 44 44 NNE 5 11 2631 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 44 44 NNE 6 13 2631 2650 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst