Detailed Predictions for: Lake Elsinore
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.6298130238, -117.371441183, 2650
LZ Altitude (f): 1350
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 15 APR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 45 45 WSW 11 18 3055 2650 0 Blue 1
1 AM Mon 44 44 WSW 11 18 2166 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 44 44 WSW 9 16 2166 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 43 43 W 8 13 2146 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 43 43 W 5 10 2146 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 42 42 W 4 10 2146 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 43 43 WSW 5 10 2146 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 43 43 WSW 3 8 2146 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 45 45 SW 2 6 3055 2650 0 Blue 1
9 AM Mon 47 48 SW 3 8 4202 3044 394 White 4
10 AM Mon 48 50 WSW 4 9 4637 4303 1653 White 6
11 AM Mon 51 55 WNW 3 8 5538 4848 2198 Blue 11
12 Noon Mon 54 59 NW 4 10 6496 5697 3047 Blue 15
1 PM Mon 58 63 NW 5 11 7449 6744 4094 White 19
2 PM Mon 60 65 WNW 6 12 7875 7342 4692 White 21
3 PM Mon 61 65 W 6 13 7875 7342 4692 White 21
4 PM Mon 62 64 W 9 16 7661 7044 4394 White 20
5 PM Mon 62 63 NW 8 14 7449 6744 4094 White 19
6 PM Mon 60 60 NW 8 13 6787 6199 3549 Blue 16
7 PM Mon 57 57 WNW 6 12 6168 5208 2558 White 13
8 PM Mon 54 54 WNW 5 11 5274 4809 2159 Blue 10
9 PM Mon 52 52 NW 4 9 4865 4740 2090 Blue 8
10 PM Mon 52 52 N 2 6 4865 4740 2090 Blue 8
11 PM Mon 51 51 NNE 2 5 4811 4705 2055 Blue 7
12 Midnight Tue 50 50 N 2 5 4637 4303 1653 White 6
1 AM Tue 49 49 WNW 2 6 4419 3666 1016 White 5
2 AM Tue 49 49 W 3 8 4419 3666 1016 White 5
3 AM Tue 49 49 WNW 3 8 4419 3666 1016 White 5
4 AM Tue 48 48 NW 2 6 4202 3044 394 White 4
5 AM Tue 49 49 NW 2 6 4419 3666 1016 White 5
6 AM Tue 49 49 NNW 2 6 4419 3666 1016 White 5
7 AM Tue 51 51 N 2 6 4811 4705 2055 Blue 7
8 AM Tue 56 57 N 2 6 6168 5208 2558 White 13
9 AM Tue 59 62 N 3 8 7237 6464 3814 White 18
10 AM Tue 63 68 N 4 9 8508 8058 5408 White 24
11 AM Tue 67 73 N 4 10 9556 8852 6202 White 29
12 Noon Tue 70 78 N 4 10 10616 10223 7573 White 34
1 PM Tue 72 80 NNW 5 10 11027 10963 8313 White 36
2 PM Tue 72 79 NW 5 11 10822 10712 8062 White 35
3 PM Tue 72 77 WNW 9 16 10409 9746 7096 White 33
4 PM Tue 73 76 W 12 20 10202 9575 6925 White 32
5 PM Tue 72 73 W 14 24 9556 8852 6202 White 29
6 PM Tue 68 68 W 13 23 8508 8058 5408 White 24
7 PM Tue 64 64 W 11 18 7661 7044 4394 White 20
8 PM Tue 61 61 WSW 8 14 7024 6287 3637 White 17
9 PM Tue 59 59 W 6 12 6496 5697 3047 Blue 15
10 PM Tue 58 58 W 4 10 6298 5520 2870 Blue 14
11 PM Tue 58 58 W 3 9 6298 5520 2870 Blue 14
12 Midnight Wed 57 57 W 3 8 6168 5208 2558 White 13
1 AM Wed 56 56 W 4 9 5716 4964 2314 Blue 12
2 AM Wed 55 55 WSW 4 10 5538 4848 2198 Blue 11
3 AM Wed 53 53 W 4 10 4972 4774 2124 Blue 9
4 AM Wed 52 52 W 4 10 4865 4740 2090 Blue 8
5 AM Wed 52 52 W 4 10 4865 4740 2090 Blue 8
6 AM Wed 53 53 WNW 3 9 4972 4774 2124 Blue 9
7 AM Wed 55 55 NW 2 6 5538 4848 2198 Blue 11
8 AM Wed 57 58 NW 2 6 6298 5520 2870 Blue 14
9 AM Wed 61 63 NW 2 6 7449 6744 4094 White 19
10 AM Wed 64 68 W 3 9 8508 8058 5408 White 24
11 AM Wed 68 74 W 5 11 9765 8978 6328 White 30
12 Noon Wed 70 77 W 8 13 10409 9746 7096 White 33
1 PM Wed 72 79 WSW 10 17 10822 10712 8062 White 35
2 PM Wed 72 78 WSW 12 20 10616 10223 7573 White 34
3 PM Wed 73 78 WSW 13 23 10616 10223 7573 White 34
4 PM Wed 72 75 SW 14 24 9992 9339 6689 White 31
5 PM Wed 70 71 SW 14 24 9006 8591 5941 Blue 27
6 PM Wed 67 67 SW 13 23 8297 7764 5114 White 23
7 PM Wed 63 63 SW 12 20 7449 6744 4094 White 19
8 PM Wed 60 60 SW 10 17 6787 6199 3549 Blue 16
9 PM Wed 58 58 SW 8 14 6298 5520 2870 Blue 14
10 PM Wed 57 57 SW 6 12 6168 5208 2558 White 13
11 PM Wed 56 56 SW 4 10 5716 4964 2314 Blue 12
12 Midnight Thu 56 56 SW 4 10 5716 4964 2314 Blue 12
1 AM Thu 55 55 SSW 4 10 5538 4848 2198 Blue 11
2 AM Thu 54 54 SSW 5 10 5274 4809 2159 Blue 10
3 AM Thu 53 53 SSW 5 11 4972 4774 2124 Blue 9
4 AM Thu 52 52 SSW 5 11 4865 4740 2090 Blue 8
5 AM Thu 52 52 SSW 5 11 4865 4740 2090 Blue 8
6 AM Thu 52 52 SSW 5 11 4865 4740 2090 Blue 8
7 AM Thu 54 54 SSW 5 11 5274 4809 2159 Blue 10
8 AM Thu 56 56 S 5 11 5716 4964 2314 Blue 12
9 AM Thu 58 59 S 5 11 6496 5697 3047 Blue 15
10 AM Thu 61 63 S 5 11 7449 6744 4094 White 19
11 AM Thu 64 67 SW 6 13 8297 7764 5114 White 23
12 Noon Thu 66 70 SW 6 13 8879 8442 5792 Blue 26
1 PM Thu 68 72 SW 6 13 9348 8726 6076 White 28
2 PM Thu 68 72 WSW 11 19 9348 8726 6076 White 28
3 PM Thu 69 72 WSW 11 19 9348 8726 6076 White 28
4 PM Thu 68 70 WSW 11 19 8879 8442 5792 Blue 26
5 PM Thu 66 67 WSW 13 21 8297 7764 5114 White 23
6 PM Thu 63 63 WSW 13 21 7449 6744 4094 White 19
7 PM Thu 60 60 WSW 13 21 6787 6199 3549 Blue 16
8 PM Thu 57 57 WSW 10 17 6168 5208 2558 White 13
9 PM Thu 55 55 WSW 10 17 5538 4848 2198 Blue 11
10 PM Thu 54 54 WSW 10 17 5274 4809 2159 Blue 10
11 PM Thu 54 54 SW 6 12 5274 4809 2159 Blue 10
12 Midnight Fri 53 53 SW 6 12 4972 4774 2124 Blue 9
1 AM Fri 52 52 SW 6 12 4865 4740 2090 Blue 8
2 AM Fri 52 52 SSW 5 12 4865 4740 2090 Blue 8
3 AM Fri 51 51 SSW 5 12 4811 4705 2055 Blue 7
4 AM Fri 50 50 SSW 5 12 4637 4303 1653 White 6
5 AM Fri 50 50 SSW 5 10 4637 4303 1653 White 6
6 AM Fri 50 50 SSW 5 10 4637 4303 1653 White 6
7 AM Fri 51 51 SSW 5 10 4811 4705 2055 Blue 7
8 AM Fri 52 53 SSW 5 10 4972 4774 2124 Blue 9
9 AM Fri 54 56 SSW 5 10 5716 4964 2314 Blue 12
10 AM Fri 57 61 SSW 5 10 7024 6287 3637 White 17
11 AM Fri 60 66 WSW 8 14 8087 7637 4987 White 22
12 Noon Fri 62 69 WSW 8 14 8717 8293 5643 White 25
1 PM Fri 64 71 WSW 8 14 9006 8591 5941 Blue 27
2 PM Fri 66 72 WSW 12 20 9348 8726 6076 White 28
3 PM Fri 66 71 WSW 12 20 9006 8591 5941 Blue 27
4 PM Fri 65 68 WSW 12 20 8508 8058 5408 White 24
5 PM Fri 63 64 WSW 13 23 7661 7044 4394 White 20
6 PM Fri 61 61 WSW 13 23 7024 6287 3637 White 17
7 PM Fri 58 58 WSW 13 23 6298 5520 2870 Blue 14
8 PM Fri 55 55 W 11 19 5538 4848 2198 Blue 11
9 PM Fri 54 54 W 11 19 5274 4809 2159 Blue 10
10 PM Fri 53 53 W 11 19 4972 4774 2124 Blue 9
11 PM Fri 52 52 WSW 6 12 4865 4740 2090 Blue 8
12 Midnight Sat 52 52 WSW 6 12 4865 4740 2090 Blue 8
1 AM Sat 51 51 WSW 6 12 4811 4705 2055 Blue 7
2 AM Sat 50 50 SSW 6 12 4637 4303 1653 White 6
3 AM Sat 50 50 SSW 6 12 4637 4303 1653 White 6
4 AM Sat 49 49 SSW 6 12 4419 3666 1016 White 5
5 AM Sat 49 49 S 6 12 4419 3666 1016 White 5
6 AM Sat 49 49 S 6 12 4419 3666 1016 White 5
7 AM Sat 50 50 S 6 12 4637 4303 1653 White 6
8 AM Sat 51 52 S 5 12 4865 4740 2090 Blue 8
9 AM Sat 54 56 S 5 12 5716 4964 2314 Blue 12
10 AM Sat 56 60 S 5 12 6787 6199 3549 Blue 16
11 AM Sat 59 65 SSW 6 12 7875 7342 4692 White 21
12 Noon Sat 62 69 SSW 6 12 8717 8293 5643 White 25
1 PM Sat 64 71 SSW 6 12 9006 8591 5941 Blue 27
2 PM Sat 66 72 SSW 10 17 9348 8726 6076 White 28
3 PM Sat 66 71 SSW 10 17 9006 8591 5941 Blue 27
4 PM Sat 67 70 SSW 10 17 8879 8442 5792 Blue 26
5 PM Sat 66 67 SW 11 18 8297 7764 5114 White 23
6 PM Sat 64 64 SW 11 18 7661 7044 4394 White 20
7 PM Sat 61 61 SW 11 18 7024 6287 3637 White 17
8 PM Sat 58 58 SW 10 17 6298 5520 2870 Blue 14
9 PM Sat 57 57 SW 10 17 6168 5208 2558 White 13
10 PM Sat 56 56 SW 10 17 5716 4964 2314 Blue 12

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst