Detailed Predictions for: Lake Elsinore
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.6298130238, -117.371441183, 2650
LZ Altitude (f): 1350
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

19 JUN 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 59 59 NNE 2 5 2744 2650 0 Blue 3
1 AM Wed 58 58 NNE 2 6 2723 2650 0 Blue 2
2 AM Wed 56 56 ENE 2 6 2516 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 56 56 ESE 2 5 2516 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 56 56 NE 2 5 2516 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 55 55 NNW 2 5 2516 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 56 56 SW 1 5 2516 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 58 58 SSE 2 5 2723 2650 0 Blue 2
8 AM Wed 60 61 SE 2 5 2800 2723 73 Blue 5
9 AM Wed 64 66 SSE 2 6 3203 2867 217 Blue 10
10 AM Wed 66 70 S 3 8 3463 3325 675 Blue 14
11 AM Wed 72 79 SW 4 10 5042 4569 1919 Blue 23
12 Noon Wed 77 85 SW 5 11 7197 5973 3323 Blue 29
1 PM Wed 79 88 WSW 6 12 7782 7168 4518 Blue 32
2 PM Wed 80 88 WSW 8 14 7782 7168 4518 Blue 32
3 PM Wed 81 88 WSW 9 16 7782 7168 4518 Blue 32
4 PM Wed 79 84 WSW 10 18 6919 5541 2891 Blue 28
5 PM Wed 77 80 W 10 18 5177 4804 2154 Blue 24
6 PM Wed 74 75 W 9 16 4469 3795 1145 Blue 19
7 PM Wed 70 70 W 8 13 3463 3325 675 Blue 14
8 PM Wed 65 65 W 5 11 3085 2832 182 Blue 9
9 PM Wed 63 63 WSW 4 10 2867 2768 118 Blue 7
10 PM Wed 62 62 SSE 3 8 2832 2744 94 Blue 6
11 PM Wed 60 60 ESE 2 6 2768 2708 58 Blue 4
12 Midnight Thu 59 59 ESE 2 5 2744 2650 0 Blue 3
1 AM Thu 58 58 SE 2 5 2723 2650 0 Blue 2
2 AM Thu 57 57 SE 2 5 2708 2650 0 Blue 1
3 AM Thu 57 57 ESE 2 5 2708 2650 0 Blue 1
4 AM Thu 56 56 NE 2 6 2516 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 57 57 N 2 6 2708 2650 0 Blue 1
6 AM Thu 57 57 NE 2 5 2708 2650 0 Blue 1
7 AM Thu 59 59 E 2 5 2744 2650 0 Blue 3
8 AM Thu 63 64 SE 2 6 2915 2800 150 Blue 8
9 AM Thu 65 67 S 2 6 3329 2914 264 Blue 11
10 AM Thu 69 73 WSW 3 8 3882 3461 811 Blue 17
11 AM Thu 74 81 W 4 9 5583 4881 2231 Blue 25
12 Noon Thu 78 86 W 4 10 7393 6364 3714 Blue 30
1 PM Thu 81 90 W 5 12 9699 7558 4908 Blue 34
2 PM Thu 83 91 WSW 6 13 10570 7752 5102 Blue 35
3 PM Thu 83 90 WSW 9 16 9699 7558 4908 Blue 34
4 PM Thu 82 87 W 10 17 7589 6872 4222 Blue 31
5 PM Thu 80 83 W 10 18 6396 5166 2516 Blue 27
6 PM Thu 76 77 W 9 17 4808 3962 1312 Blue 21
7 PM Thu 72 72 W 8 14 3798 3393 743 Blue 16
8 PM Thu 68 68 W 6 12 3353 3083 433 Blue 12
9 PM Thu 65 65 WNW 4 10 3085 2832 182 Blue 9
10 PM Thu 64 64 NW 3 8 2915 2800 150 Blue 8
11 PM Thu 63 63 NNW 2 5 2867 2768 118 Blue 7
12 Midnight Fri 62 62 N 1 5 2832 2744 94 Blue 6
1 AM Fri 61 61 N 2 5 2800 2723 73 Blue 5
2 AM Fri 61 61 NNE 2 6 2800 2723 73 Blue 5
3 AM Fri 60 60 NNE 2 6 2768 2708 58 Blue 4
4 AM Fri 59 59 NNE 2 6 2744 2650 0 Blue 3
5 AM Fri 60 60 NNW 3 6 2768 2708 58 Blue 4
6 AM Fri 61 61 N 2 6 2800 2723 73 Blue 5
7 AM Fri 63 63 N 2 6 2867 2768 118 Blue 7
8 AM Fri 66 67 N 2 6 3329 2914 264 Blue 11
9 AM Fri 71 73 N 2 6 3882 3461 811 Blue 17
10 AM Fri 76 80 NW 3 8 5177 4804 2154 Blue 24
11 AM Fri 82 89 NW 4 9 8626 7363 4713 Blue 33
12 Noon Fri 86 95 WNW 4 10 11165 10805 8155 Blue 39
1 PM Fri 89 98 WSW 5 11 11953 11111 8461 Blue 42
2 PM Fri 90 98 SW 6 12 11953 11111 8461 Blue 42
3 PM Fri 90 97 SW 8 14 11692 11038 8388 Blue 41
4 PM Fri 89 94 WSW 9 16 11058 10487 7837 Blue 38
5 PM Fri 87 90 WSW 9 16 9699 7558 4908 Blue 34
6 PM Fri 82 83 WSW 8 14 6396 5166 2516 Blue 27
7 PM Fri 78 78 WSW 6 12 4887 4462 1812 Blue 22
8 PM Fri 73 73 W 4 10 3882 3461 811 Blue 17
9 PM Fri 71 71 SW 4 9 3715 3353 703 Blue 15
10 PM Fri 69 69 SE 3 8 3396 3201 551 Blue 13
11 PM Fri 68 68 E 3 8 3353 3083 433 Blue 12
12 Midnight Sat 67 67 SE 2 6 3329 2914 264 Blue 11
1 AM Sat 66 66 S 2 6 3203 2867 217 Blue 10
2 AM Sat 66 66 SW 2 6 3203 2867 217 Blue 10
3 AM Sat 65 65 S 2 6 3085 2832 182 Blue 9
4 AM Sat 64 64 E 2 6 2915 2800 150 Blue 8
5 AM Sat 65 65 N 3 8 3085 2832 182 Blue 9
6 AM Sat 66 66 N 3 8 3203 2867 217 Blue 10
7 AM Sat 68 68 N 3 8 3353 3083 433 Blue 12
8 AM Sat 71 72 NNE 2 6 3798 3393 743 Blue 16
9 AM Sat 76 78 NNE 2 6 4887 4462 1812 Blue 22
10 AM Sat 81 85 NNE 2 6 7197 5973 3323 Blue 29
11 AM Sat 86 93 WSW 3 9 10985 9470 6820 Blue 37
12 Noon Sat 90 99 WSW 3 9 12213 11353 8703 Blue 43
1 PM Sat 93 102 WSW 3 9 13346 12131 9481 White 46
2 PM Sat 94 102 SW 8 14 13346 12131 9481 White 46
3 PM Sat 95 102 SW 8 14 13346 12131 9481 White 46
4 PM Sat 94 99 SW 8 14 12213 11353 8703 Blue 43
5 PM Sat 91 94 WSW 10 18 11058 10487 7837 Blue 38
6 PM Sat 87 88 WSW 10 18 7782 7168 4518 Blue 32
7 PM Sat 81 81 WSW 10 18 5583 4881 2231 Blue 25
8 PM Sat 77 77 SW 5 11 4808 3962 1312 Blue 21
9 PM Sat 74 74 SW 5 11 3966 3711 1061 Blue 18
10 PM Sat 73 73 SW 5 11 3882 3461 811 Blue 17
11 PM Sat 72 72 NNE 3 8 3798 3393 743 Blue 16
12 Midnight Sun 71 71 NNE 3 8 3715 3353 703 Blue 15
1 AM Sun 70 70 NNE 3 8 3463 3325 675 Blue 14
2 AM Sun 69 69 NNE 2 6 3396 3201 551 Blue 13
3 AM Sun 68 68 NNE 2 6 3353 3083 433 Blue 12
4 AM Sun 68 68 NNE 2 6 3353 3083 433 Blue 12
5 AM Sun 68 68 NNW 3 8 3353 3083 433 Blue 12
6 AM Sun 70 70 NNW 3 8 3463 3325 675 Blue 14
7 AM Sun 71 71 NNW 3 8 3715 3353 703 Blue 15
8 AM Sun 74 75 WNW 2 6 4469 3795 1145 Blue 19
9 AM Sun 78 80 WNW 2 6 5177 4804 2154 Blue 24
10 AM Sun 83 87 WNW 2 6 7589 6872 4222 Blue 31
11 AM Sun 87 94 WNW 4 10 11058 10487 7837 Blue 38
12 Noon Sun 91 99 WNW 4 10 12213 11353 8703 Blue 43
1 PM Sun 93 101 WNW 4 10 13142 11873 9223 White 45
2 PM Sun 94 102 W 8 14 13346 12131 9481 White 46
3 PM Sun 94 100 W 8 14 12936 11614 8964 White 44
4 PM Sun 92 96 W 8 14 11429 10965 8315 Blue 40
5 PM Sun 89 92 W 11 19 10891 7864 5214 Blue 36
6 PM Sun 85 86 W 11 19 7393 6364 3714 Blue 30
7 PM Sun 80 80 W 11 19 5177 4804 2154 Blue 24
8 PM Sun 76 76 WSW 6 13 4575 3879 1229 Blue 20
9 PM Sun 74 74 WSW 6 13 3966 3711 1061 Blue 18
10 PM Sun 72 72 WSW 6 13 3798 3393 743 Blue 16
11 PM Sun 70 70 NNE 2 6 3463 3325 675 Blue 14
12 Midnight Mon 69 69 NNE 2 6 3396 3201 551 Blue 13
1 AM Mon 68 68 NNE 2 6 3353 3083 433 Blue 12
2 AM Mon 68 68 NW 1 5 3353 3083 433 Blue 12
3 AM Mon 67 67 NW 1 5 3329 2914 264 Blue 11
4 AM Mon 67 67 NW 1 5 3329 2914 264 Blue 11
5 AM Mon 67 67 W 2 5 3329 2914 264 Blue 11
6 AM Mon 68 68 W 2 5 3353 3083 433 Blue 12
7 AM Mon 70 70 W 2 5 3463 3325 675 Blue 14
8 AM Mon 73 74 E 1 5 3966 3711 1061 Blue 18
9 AM Mon 77 79 E 1 5 5042 4569 1919 Blue 23
10 AM Mon 81 85 E 1 5 7197 5973 3323 Blue 29
11 AM Mon 85 92 W 5 10 10891 7864 5214 Blue 36
12 Noon Mon 88 96 W 5 10 11429 10965 8315 Blue 40
1 PM Mon 90 98 W 5 10 11953 11111 8461 Blue 42
2 PM Mon 92 100 W 9 14 12936 11614 8964 White 44
3 PM Mon 92 98 W 9 14 11953 11111 8461 Blue 42
4 PM Mon 90 94 W 9 14 11058 10487 7837 Blue 38
5 PM Mon 88 91 W 11 19 10570 7752 5102 Blue 35
6 PM Mon 84 85 W 11 19 7197 5973 3323 Blue 29
7 PM Mon 80 80 W 11 19 5177 4804 2154 Blue 24
8 PM Mon 75 75 W 6 13 4469 3795 1145 Blue 19
9 PM Mon 73 73 W 6 13 3882 3461 811 Blue 17
10 PM Mon 71 71 W 6 13 3715 3353 703 Blue 15

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst