Detailed Predictions for: Lake Elsinore
Launch Altitude (f): 2650
LZ Altitude (f): 1350
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

18 NOV 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Mon 59 59 NW 2 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 59 59 S 2 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 60 60 SE 2 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 62 62 SE 2 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 66 66 SE 2 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 70 71 E 2 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 75 77 NE 3 3189 2650 0 Blue 1
11 AM Mon 79 81 N 3 7400 4677 2027 Blue 5
12 Noon Mon 82 84 N 3 8751 7339 4689 Blue 8
1 PM Mon 83 85 NE 3 8870 7727 5077 Blue 9
2 PM Mon 83 84 N 3 8751 7339 4689 Blue 8
3 PM Mon 83 83 N 3 8632 6946 4296 Blue 7
4 PM Mon 81 81 W 7 7400 4677 2027 Blue 5
5 PM Mon 77 77 W 6 3189 2650 0 Blue 1
6 PM Mon 72 72 W 7 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 68 68 W 5 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 65 65 W 3 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 63 63 W 3 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 62 62 NW 2 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 61 61 N 3 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 60 60 NW 3 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 59 59 NW 2 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 59 59 NW 2 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 59 59 W 2 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 59 59 SW 1 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 59 59 S 2 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 58 58 S 3 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 59 59 S 5 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 65 65 S 7 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 71 72 S 9 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 72 73 S 12 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 72 73 S 13 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 70 71 SW 13 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 68 69 SW 13 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 67 68 SW 13 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 66 66 SW 10 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 65 65 SW 10 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 63 63 S 10 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 61 61 S 10 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 60 60 S 12 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 58 58 S 13 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 58 58 S 15 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 58 58 S 16 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 57 57 S 16 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 56 56 SW 16 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 55 55 SW 16 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 53 53 SW 16 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 52 52 SW 17 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 50 50 SW 16 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 50 50 SW 13 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 50 50 SW 9 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 50 50 SW 6 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 50 50 SW 6 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 51 51 S 6 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 51 51 SE 7 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 52 53 SE 8 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 53 54 S 9 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 53 53 S 9 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 53 53 S 12 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 53 53 S 13 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 52 52 S 14 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 50 50 S 13 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 49 49 S 12 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 48 48 S 9 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 48 48 S 9 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 47 47 S 9 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 47 47 S 8 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 48 48 S 8 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 48 48 S 8 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 49 49 S 7 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 49 49 S 6 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 49 49 S 5 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 49 49 S 3 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 49 49 S 3 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 49 49 S 3 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 49 49 SW 6 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 50 50 SW 6 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 50 50 SW 6 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 51 52 E 8 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 52 53 E 8 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 52 53 E 8 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 53 54 S 9 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 54 55 S 9 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 54 54 S 9 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 54 54 S 6 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 54 54 S 6 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 54 54 S 6 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 54 54 SE 3 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 52 52 SE 3 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 51 51 SE 3 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 50 50 E 2 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 49 49 E 2 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 48 48 E 2 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 48 48 NE 3 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 47 47 NE 3 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 47 47 NE 3 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 47 47 NE 5 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 47 47 NE 5 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 47 47 NE 5 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 48 48 N 3 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 50 50 N 3 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 53 54 N 3 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 56 58 NE 3 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 59 61 NE 3 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 62 64 NE 3 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 63 65 NE 3 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 63 64 NE 3 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 64 64 NE 3 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 62 62 SE 3 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 61 61 SE 3 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 58 58 SE 3 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 57 57 E 9 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 55 55 E 9 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 54 54 E 9 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 54 54 E 6 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 53 53 E 6 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 52 52 E 6 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 51 51 NE 6 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 50 50 NE 6 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 49 49 NE 6 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 49 49 E 6 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 48 48 E 6 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 48 48 E 6 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 49 49 E 5 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 52 52 E 5 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 56 57 E 5 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 60 61 E 5 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 63 65 E 5 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 66 68 E 5 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 66 68 NE 3 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 67 68 NE 3 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 65 65 NE 3 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 63 63 W 10 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 62 62 W 10 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 60 60 W 10 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 58 58 NW 3 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 56 56 NW 3 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 53 53 NW 3 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 50 50 N 3 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 49 49 N 3 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 49 49 N 3 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 49 49 NE 5 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 50 50 NE 5 1611 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 50 50 NE 5 1611 2650 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst