Detailed Predictions for: Lake Elsinore
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.6298130238, -117.371441183, 2650
LZ Altitude (f): 1350
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

23 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 70 70 SSW 1 3 2890 2756 106 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 67 67 SSW 1 3 2756 2756 106 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 63 63 SSW 1 3 2756 2756 106 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 62 62 S 1 3 2756 2756 106 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 61 61 S 2 4 2756 2756 106 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 60 60 SSE 2 4 2756 2756 106 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 63 63 SSE 2 4 2756 2756 106 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 67 67 SSE 2 3 2756 2756 106 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 70 71 SSE 2 2 2956 2758 108 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 75 78 S 2 2 3421 3221 571 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 80 85 SSW 1 1 5806 4025 1375 Blue 6
11 AM Wed 85 92 SW 1 1 14059 11016 8366 Blue 13
12 Noon Wed 87 96 WSW 3 3 15756 14331 11681 Blue 17
1 PM Wed 88 97 WSW 5 5 16231 14756 12106 Blue 18
2 PM Wed 90 98 WSW 6 8 16741 15173 12523 Blue 19
3 PM Wed 89 96 WSW 7 8 15756 14331 11681 Blue 17
4 PM Wed 87 92 WSW 7 8 14059 11016 8366 Blue 13
5 PM Wed 86 89 WSW 7 8 11392 7374 4724 Blue 10
6 PM Wed 83 84 SW 6 7 4589 3789 1139 Blue 5
7 PM Wed 81 81 SSW 4 6 3796 3420 770 Blue 2
8 PM Wed 79 79 SSW 3 5 3487 3287 637 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 77 77 S 3 5 3354 3155 505 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 76 76 S 2 5 3288 3088 438 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 75 75 S 2 5 3221 3022 372 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 69 69 S 2 3 2824 2756 106 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 64 64 SSE 1 2 2756 2756 106 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 58 58 SSE 0 0 2756 2756 106 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 57 57 ESE 0 1 2756 2756 106 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 57 57 ENE 0 2 2756 2756 106 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 56 56 NNE 1 2 2756 2756 106 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 61 61 NNE 0 2 2756 2756 106 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 66 66 NNE 0 1 2756 2756 106 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 71 72 NNE 0 0 3022 2824 174 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 76 79 E 1 1 3487 3287 637 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 80 86 SSE 2 2 7590 4260 1610 Blue 7
11 AM Thu 84 92 SW 3 3 14059 11016 8366 Blue 13
12 Noon Thu 86 95 SW 4 4 15345 13896 11246 Blue 16
1 PM Thu 88 97 WSW 5 6 16231 14756 12106 Blue 18
2 PM Thu 90 98 W 6 7 16741 15173 12523 Blue 19
3 PM Thu 89 96 WSW 6 7 15756 14331 11681 Blue 17
4 PM Thu 88 93 WSW 6 7 14497 12276 9626 Blue 14
5 PM Thu 86 89 WSW 6 7 11392 7374 4724 Blue 10
6 PM Thu 84 85 SW 5 6 5806 4025 1375 Blue 6
7 PM Thu 82 82 SSW 3 4 4033 3486 836 Blue 3
8 PM Thu 79 79 SSE 2 3 3487 3287 637 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 78 78 S 1 2 3421 3221 571 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 77 77 SSW 1 1 3354 3155 505 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 76 76 SSW 0 0 3288 3088 438 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 70 70 SSE 0 2 2890 2756 106 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 65 65 E 1 3 2756 2756 106 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 59 59 NE 2 4 2756 2756 106 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 59 59 ENE 1 3 2756 2756 106 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 58 58 E 1 3 2756 2756 106 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 57 57 ESE 1 2 2756 2756 106 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 63 63 E 1 2 2756 2756 106 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 68 68 NE 1 2 2757 2756 106 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 74 75 N 1 2 3221 3022 372 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 79 82 E 2 2 4033 3486 836 Blue 3
10 AM Fri 84 90 S 2 2 12630 8695 6045 Blue 11
11 AM Fri 90 98 WNW 2 3 16741 15173 12523 Blue 19
12 Noon Fri 91 100 W 4 4 17565 16000 13350 White 21
1 PM Fri 93 102 W 5 6 17961 16999 14349 White 23
2 PM Fri 94 102 W 6 8 17961 16999 14349 White 23
3 PM Fri 93 100 W 6 7 17565 16000 13350 White 21
4 PM Fri 92 97 WSW 6 7 16231 14756 12106 Blue 18
5 PM Fri 90 93 WSW 5 6 14497 12276 9626 Blue 14
6 PM Fri 89 90 SW 4 6 12630 8695 6045 Blue 11
7 PM Fri 88 88 SSW 3 6 10033 5612 2962 Blue 9
8 PM Fri 87 87 S 2 5 8920 4560 1910 Blue 8
9 PM Fri 85 85 SSE 2 4 5806 4025 1375 Blue 6
10 PM Fri 83 83 SSE 2 4 4270 3580 930 Blue 4
11 PM Fri 81 81 SE 1 3 3796 3420 770 Blue 2

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst