Detailed Predictions for: Little Black
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 32.9879562095, -117.122319277, 1050
LZ Altitude (f): 750
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

23 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 62 54 NW 4 9 440 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 61 53 W 2 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 61 53 NW 4 10 440 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 61 53 W 3 8 440 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 61 53 W 3 8 440 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 62 54 WNW 4 9 440 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 62 54 NW 4 9 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 63 55 NW 4 10 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 65 57 WNW 5 10 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 68 61 WNW 6 12 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 72 65 W 6 13 1548 1050 0 Blue 1
11 AM Wed 75 71 W 8 14 1973 1758 708 Blue 7
12 Noon Wed 76 72 W 9 16 2035 1828 778 Blue 8
1 PM Wed 75 71 W 10 17 1973 1758 708 Blue 7
2 PM Wed 76 73 W 10 18 2085 1899 849 Blue 9
3 PM Wed 76 72 W 10 18 2035 1828 778 Blue 8
4 PM Wed 75 70 W 10 17 1902 1687 637 Blue 6
5 PM Wed 74 68 W 10 17 1760 1546 496 Blue 4
6 PM Wed 72 64 W 9 16 1477 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 69 61 W 8 13 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 67 59 W 6 12 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 65 57 WNW 5 11 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 64 56 WNW 4 10 440 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 64 56 WNW 4 9 440 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 63 55 NW 4 9 440 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 62 54 NW 3 9 440 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 62 54 NW 3 9 440 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 61 53 NW 3 8 440 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 60 52 NW 3 8 440 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 59 51 NW 3 8 440 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 59 51 NW 3 8 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 60 52 WNW 3 9 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 62 54 WNW 4 9 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 65 57 WNW 5 11 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 68 60 WNW 6 13 440 1050 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 71 70 W 8 14 1902 1687 637 Blue 6
12 Noon Thu 73 73 W 10 17 2085 1899 849 Blue 9
1 PM Thu 74 74 W 11 18 2135 1970 920 Blue 10
2 PM Thu 73 72 W 11 19 2035 1828 778 Blue 8
3 PM Thu 74 72 W 11 19 2035 1828 778 Blue 8
4 PM Thu 73 69 WNW 11 18 1831 1616 566 Blue 5
5 PM Thu 71 64 WNW 10 17 1477 1050 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 69 61 WNW 9 16 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 66 58 WNW 8 14 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 64 56 WNW 6 13 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 63 55 WNW 6 12 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 62 54 WNW 5 11 440 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 61 53 WNW 4 10 440 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 60 52 NW 4 9 440 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 59 51 NW 3 8 440 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 58 50 NW 2 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 58 50 NNW 2 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 57 49 NNW 2 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 57 49 N 3 8 440 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 58 50 NNW 3 8 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 59 51 NW 3 8 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 62 54 WNW 4 9 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 65 57 WNW 5 11 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 69 61 WNW 6 12 440 1050 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 72 71 W 8 14 1973 1758 708 Blue 7
12 Noon Fri 74 74 W 9 16 2135 1970 920 Blue 10
1 PM Fri 74 75 W 10 17 2184 2033 983 Blue 11
2 PM Fri 74 74 W 10 18 2135 1970 920 Blue 10
3 PM Fri 75 74 W 10 18 2135 1970 920 Blue 10
4 PM Fri 74 71 W 10 17 1973 1758 708 Blue 7
5 PM Fri 72 66 W 9 16 1619 1050 0 Blue 2
6 PM Fri 71 64 W 8 14 1477 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 69 61 WNW 6 13 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 67 59 WNW 5 12 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 66 58 WNW 5 10 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 65 57 WNW 4 9 440 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 64 56 WNW 3 8 440 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 62 54 WNW 2 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 61 53 W 2 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 60 52 W 2 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 59 51 WSW 1 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 58 50 S 1 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 58 50 S 1 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 59 51 S 1 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 61 53 S 1 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 64 57 W 2 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 67 61 W 2 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 70 65 W 2 5 1548 1050 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sat 73 72 W 6 12 2035 1828 778 Blue 8
12 Noon Sat 75 75 W 6 12 2184 2033 983 Blue 11
1 PM Sat 76 77 W 6 12 2478 2132 1082 Blue 13
2 PM Sat 76 76 W 9 16 2344 2082 1032 Blue 12
3 PM Sat 77 75 W 9 16 2184 2033 983 Blue 11
4 PM Sat 76 72 W 9 16 2035 1828 778 Blue 8
5 PM Sat 75 70 W 8 14 1902 1687 637 Blue 6
6 PM Sat 73 66 W 8 14 1619 1050 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sat 71 63 W 8 14 656 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 69 61 W 4 9 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 67 59 W 4 9 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 66 58 W 4 9 440 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 64 56 WSW 2 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 64 56 WSW 2 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 63 55 WSW 2 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 62 54 S 2 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 61 53 S 2 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 60 52 S 2 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 60 52 SSW 1 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 60 52 SSW 1 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 62 54 SSW 1 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 65 57 SW 2 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 70 63 SW 2 5 656 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 75 69 SW 2 5 1831 1616 566 Blue 5
11 AM Sun 78 77 WSW 6 12 2478 2132 1082 Blue 13
12 Noon Sun 80 80 WSW 6 12 2703 2473 1423 Blue 16
1 PM Sun 80 81 WSW 6 12 2771 2560 1510 Blue 17
2 PM Sun 81 81 WSW 9 16 2771 2560 1510 Blue 17
3 PM Sun 81 80 WSW 9 16 2703 2473 1423 Blue 16
4 PM Sun 80 77 WSW 9 16 2478 2132 1082 Blue 13
5 PM Sun 79 74 WSW 8 14 2135 1970 920 Blue 10
6 PM Sun 77 70 WSW 8 14 1902 1687 637 Blue 6
7 PM Sun 74 66 WSW 8 14 1619 1050 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sun 71 63 SSW 4 10 656 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 70 62 SSW 4 10 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 68 60 SSW 4 10 440 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 67 59 SSW 2 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 66 58 SSW 2 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 64 56 SSW 2 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 63 55 SW 2 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 62 54 SW 2 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 62 54 SW 2 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 62 54 S 2 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 62 54 S 2 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 64 56 S 2 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 67 59 SSW 3 8 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 71 64 SSW 3 8 1477 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 76 70 SSW 3 8 1902 1687 637 Blue 6
11 AM Mon 80 79 SW 5 12 2634 2334 1284 Blue 15
12 Noon Mon 82 82 SW 5 12 2835 2629 1579 Blue 18
1 PM Mon 82 82 SW 5 12 2835 2629 1579 Blue 18
2 PM Mon 82 82 SW 9 16 2835 2629 1579 Blue 18
3 PM Mon 82 80 SW 9 16 2703 2473 1423 Blue 16
4 PM Mon 80 76 SW 9 16 2344 2082 1032 Blue 12
5 PM Mon 78 72 SW 6 13 2035 1828 778 Blue 8
6 PM Mon 77 70 SW 6 13 1902 1687 637 Blue 6
7 PM Mon 74 66 SW 6 13 1619 1050 0 Blue 2
8 PM Mon 72 64 SW 4 10 1477 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 70 62 SW 4 10 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 69 61 SW 4 10 440 1050 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst