Detailed Predictions for: Little Black
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 32.9879562095, -117.122319277, 1050
LZ Altitude (f): 750
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 5 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Tue 54 46 SE 3 8 594 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 54 46 SE 4 9 594 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 53 45 ESE 4 9 594 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 53 45 ESE 3 9 594 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 52 44 E 2 6 594 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 52 44 NE 2 6 594 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 52 44 ENE 2 6 594 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 53 45 E 2 6 594 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 59 51 SE 3 8 594 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 66 59 SE 3 8 594 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 74 68 SW 3 8 594 1050 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 76 71 WSW 4 9 781 1050 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Tue 78 73 WSW 5 11 1026 1050 0 Blue 4
1 PM Tue 77 71 W 6 12 781 1050 0 Blue 2
2 PM Tue 76 69 W 6 12 648 1050 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 75 67 W 6 12 594 1050 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 71 63 WNW 5 11 594 1050 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 66 58 W 3 9 594 1050 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 62 54 S 2 6 594 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 60 52 SSE 2 5 594 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 60 52 SSE 1 5 594 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 58 50 SSE 1 5 594 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 58 50 SSE 2 5 594 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 56 48 SE 2 5 594 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 56 48 ENE 2 5 594 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 54 46 NNE 2 5 594 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 54 46 NE 2 5 594 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 53 45 E 2 6 594 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 53 45 ESE 2 6 594 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 52 44 ESE 2 6 594 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 52 44 SE 2 6 594 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 52 44 SE 2 6 594 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 57 49 S 2 6 594 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 64 57 SW 2 6 594 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 70 64 WSW 3 8 594 1050 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 73 67 WSW 4 10 594 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 73 67 W 6 13 594 1050 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 73 67 W 8 14 594 1050 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 72 65 W 8 13 594 1050 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 70 62 W 5 11 594 1050 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 68 60 W 4 9 594 1050 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 65 57 W 3 8 594 1050 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 61 53 W 2 6 594 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 58 50 W 2 6 594 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 56 48 WNW 1 5 594 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 55 47 N 1 4 594 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 55 47 NE 1 1 594 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 54 46 ENE 1 5 594 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 54 46 ESE 2 5 594 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 53 45 ESE 2 6 594 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 52 44 SE 2 6 594 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 52 44 S 2 6 594 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 52 44 S 2 6 594 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 51 43 S 3 8 594 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 51 43 S 3 8 594 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 52 44 S 4 9 594 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 55 47 S 4 10 594 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 59 51 S 4 10 594 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 63 56 S 5 11 594 1050 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 65 58 SSW 6 12 594 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 66 60 SW 8 14 594 1050 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 66 59 SW 9 16 594 1050 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 66 59 SW 9 16 594 1050 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 64 56 WSW 9 16 594 1050 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 62 54 WSW 8 13 594 1050 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 60 52 SSW 5 11 594 1050 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 58 50 SSE 4 9 594 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 55 47 ESE 2 6 594 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 54 46 ESE 3 8 594 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 54 46 SE 3 9 594 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 54 46 SSE 4 10 594 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 53 45 SSE 5 11 594 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 53 45 SSE 5 11 594 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 52 44 SSE 6 12 594 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 51 43 SSE 6 12 594 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 50 42 SSE 6 12 594 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 50 42 SSE 6 13 594 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 48 40 SSE 6 13 594 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 48 40 SSE 6 13 594 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 48 40 SE 8 14 594 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 52 44 SE 8 14 594 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 58 50 SE 8 14 594 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 62 56 SSE 5 11 594 1050 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 65 59 SSE 5 11 594 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 67 61 SSE 5 11 594 1050 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 67 61 WNW 6 13 594 1050 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 67 60 WNW 6 13 594 1050 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 66 58 WNW 6 13 594 1050 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 64 56 NW 9 16 594 1050 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 61 53 NW 9 16 594 1050 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 58 50 NW 9 16 594 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 55 47 E 5 11 594 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 54 46 E 5 11 594 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 53 45 E 5 11 594 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 52 44 ESE 6 12 594 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 51 43 ESE 6 12 594 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 50 42 ESE 6 12 594 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 50 42 ESE 6 12 594 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 50 42 ESE 6 12 594 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 50 42 ESE 6 12 594 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 50 42 E 6 13 594 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 49 41 E 6 13 594 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 49 41 E 6 13 594 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 50 42 E 8 14 594 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 55 47 E 8 14 594 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 61 54 E 8 14 594 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 67 61 SSW 5 11 594 1050 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 70 64 SSW 5 11 594 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 72 66 SSW 5 11 594 1050 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 72 66 W 9 14 594 1050 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 72 65 W 9 14 594 1050 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 70 62 W 9 14 594 1050 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 68 60 NNW 10 17 594 1050 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 64 56 NNW 10 17 594 1050 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 60 52 NNW 10 17 594 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 57 49 NE 9 16 594 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 56 48 NE 9 16 594 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 54 46 NE 9 16 594 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 54 46 ESE 6 12 594 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 53 45 ESE 6 12 594 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 52 44 ESE 6 12 594 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 51 43 S 4 10 594 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 50 42 S 4 10 594 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 50 42 S 4 10 594 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 50 42 NE 6 12 594 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 49 41 NE 6 12 594 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 49 41 NE 6 12 594 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 50 42 SE 4 10 594 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 55 47 SE 4 10 594 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 62 55 SE 4 10 594 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 68 61 SW 4 9 594 1050 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 72 66 SW 4 9 594 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 73 67 SW 4 9 594 1050 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 73 67 W 6 13 594 1050 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 73 66 W 6 13 594 1050 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 71 63 W 6 13 594 1050 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 68 60 NW 6 12 594 1050 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 65 57 NW 6 12 594 1050 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 61 53 NW 6 12 594 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 58 50 N 4 10 594 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 56 48 N 4 10 594 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 56 48 N 4 10 594 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 55 47 ESE 5 11 594 1050 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst