Detailed Predictions for: Little Black
Launch Altitude (f): 1050
LZ Altitude (f): 750
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

16 NOV 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sat 52 44 NE 3 548 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 51 43 NE 2 548 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 51 43 NE 2 548 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 53 45 N 1 548 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 57 49 N 0 548 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 62 55 W 0 548 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 68 62 W 5 1452 1050 0 Blue 4
11 AM Sat 73 68 W 6 1667 1558 508 Blue 10
12 Noon Sat 77 72 W 7 1764 1693 643 Blue 14
1 PM Sat 78 73 W 7 1787 1716 666 Blue 15
2 PM Sat 79 73 W 7 1787 1716 666 Blue 15
3 PM Sat 76 69 W 7 1694 1594 544 Blue 11
4 PM Sat 73 65 W 6 1559 1451 401 Blue 7
5 PM Sat 68 60 W 5 1198 1050 0 Blue 2
6 PM Sat 63 55 W 3 548 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 60 52 N 0 548 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 57 49 NE 1 548 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 56 48 NE 1 548 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 56 48 NE 1 548 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 56 48 NE 2 548 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 56 48 NE 3 548 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 57 49 NE 6 548 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 58 50 NE 7 548 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 59 51 NE 6 548 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 59 51 NE 7 548 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 58 50 NE 6 548 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 59 51 NE 5 548 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 61 53 NE 6 548 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 68 60 NE 6 1198 1050 0 Blue 2
9 AM Sun 76 69 NE 5 1694 1594 544 Blue 11
10 AM Sun 84 78 W 2 2365 1842 792 Blue 20
11 AM Sun 88 83 W 2 3777 2897 1847 Blue 25
12 Noon Sun 89 84 W 3 4500 3154 2104 Blue 26
1 PM Sun 89 84 W 6 4500 3154 2104 Blue 26
2 PM Sun 86 80 W 6 2916 2046 996 Blue 22
3 PM Sun 83 76 W 6 1889 1787 737 Blue 18
4 PM Sun 79 71 NW 6 1740 1665 615 Blue 13
5 PM Sun 75 67 NW 5 1631 1523 473 Blue 9
6 PM Sun 71 63 N 5 1488 1193 143 Blue 5
7 PM Sun 68 60 E 6 1198 1050 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sun 66 58 NE 6 763 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 64 56 E 6 559 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 62 54 E 5 548 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 61 53 E 5 548 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 59 51 E 3 548 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 58 50 SE 3 548 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 57 49 E 3 548 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 57 49 E 6 548 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 57 49 E 7 548 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 58 50 E 7 548 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 60 52 E 6 548 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 64 56 E 5 559 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 69 61 SE 5 1414 1050 0 Blue 3
9 AM Mon 75 68 S 2 1667 1558 508 Blue 10
10 AM Mon 80 74 W 5 1811 1740 690 Blue 16
11 AM Mon 84 78 W 6 2365 1842 792 Blue 20
12 Noon Mon 86 81 W 7 3175 2348 1298 Blue 23
1 PM Mon 85 79 W 9 2657 1887 837 Blue 21
2 PM Mon 85 78 W 9 2365 1842 792 Blue 20
3 PM Mon 83 75 W 9 1844 1763 713 Blue 17
4 PM Mon 80 72 NW 7 1764 1693 643 Blue 14
5 PM Mon 75 67 NW 5 1631 1523 473 Blue 9
6 PM Mon 70 62 NW 2 1452 1050 0 Blue 4
7 PM Mon 67 59 NE 1 981 1050 0 Blue 1
8 PM Mon 64 56 NE 1 559 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 63 55 SE 3 548 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 62 54 SE 6 548 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 62 54 SE 9 548 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 61 53 SE 9 548 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 60 52 E 7 548 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 60 52 E 7 548 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 60 52 E 7 548 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 59 51 SE 2 548 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 57 49 SE 2 548 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 55 47 SE 2 548 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 55 47 SE 3 548 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 57 49 SE 3 548 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 61 54 SE 3 548 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 65 58 S 6 763 1050 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 69 62 S 6 1452 1050 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Tue 72 65 S 6 1559 1451 401 Blue 7
1 PM Tue 71 64 S 10 1524 1408 358 Blue 6
2 PM Tue 69 62 S 10 1452 1050 0 Blue 4
3 PM Tue 65 57 S 10 625 1050 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 61 53 S 9 548 1050 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 59 51 S 9 548 1050 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 58 50 S 9 548 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 58 50 S 8 548 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 57 49 S 8 548 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 56 48 S 8 548 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 55 47 S 9 548 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 55 47 S 9 548 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 54 46 S 9 548 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 54 46 SW 10 548 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 54 46 SW 10 548 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 54 46 SW 10 548 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 53 45 SW 12 548 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 53 45 SW 12 548 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 53 45 SW 12 548 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 54 46 S 10 548 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 54 46 S 10 548 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 53 45 S 10 548 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 54 46 SW 16 548 1050 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 56 48 SW 16 548 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 60 52 SW 16 548 1050 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 60 52 SW 17 548 1050 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 61 53 SW 17 548 1050 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 60 52 SW 17 548 1050 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 58 50 S 13 548 1050 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 57 49 S 13 548 1050 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 56 48 S 13 548 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 55 47 S 10 548 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 55 47 S 10 548 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 56 48 S 10 548 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 56 48 SE 9 548 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 55 47 SE 9 548 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 54 46 SE 9 548 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 53 45 SE 8 548 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 52 44 SE 8 548 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 51 43 SE 8 548 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 50 42 SE 7 548 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 49 41 SE 7 548 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 49 41 SE 7 548 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 50 42 SE 7 548 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 52 44 SE 7 548 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 55 47 SE 7 548 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 58 51 S 7 548 1050 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 60 53 S 7 548 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 62 55 S 7 548 1050 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 61 54 S 8 548 1050 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 62 54 S 8 548 1050 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 60 52 S 8 548 1050 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 59 51 SW 6 548 1050 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 58 50 SW 6 548 1050 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 56 48 SW 6 548 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 55 47 SE 2 548 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 54 46 SE 2 548 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 52 44 SE 2 548 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 52 44 SE 3 548 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 51 43 SE 3 548 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 50 42 SE 3 548 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 50 42 E 3 548 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 50 42 E 3 548 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 49 41 E 3 548 1050 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst