Detailed Predictions for: Little Black
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 32.9879562095, -117.122319277, 1050
LZ Altitude (f): 750
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

21 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 61 53 WNW 1 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 61 53 NNW 1 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 61 53 NNE 1 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 62 54 NNE 1 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 62 54 NNE 2 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 63 55 N 2 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 62 54 N 2 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 62 54 NNW 2 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 65 57 W 2 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 71 64 W 3 8 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 77 72 W 4 10 892 1050 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 80 77 W 6 12 1956 1611 561 Blue 5
12 Noon Tue 82 80 W 8 14 2082 1953 903 Blue 8
1 PM Tue 82 80 W 9 16 2082 1953 903 Blue 8
2 PM Tue 83 81 W 9 16 2113 2018 968 Blue 9
3 PM Tue 81 77 W 9 14 1956 1611 561 Blue 5
4 PM Tue 80 75 W 8 13 1796 1050 0 Blue 3
5 PM Tue 79 72 W 6 13 892 1050 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 76 68 W 5 11 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 71 63 NW 4 9 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 68 60 NW 3 8 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 68 60 NW 3 8 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 67 59 WNW 3 8 440 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 67 59 WNW 3 9 440 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 65 57 WNW 3 8 440 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 65 57 NW 2 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 65 57 NW 2 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 64 56 NW 2 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 64 56 NW 2 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 65 57 NW 3 8 440 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 64 56 NW 2 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 64 56 NNW 2 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 67 59 N 2 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 71 65 NNW 3 8 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 77 72 WNW 5 11 892 1050 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 82 79 W 8 14 2050 1873 823 Blue 7
12 Noon Wed 86 84 W 10 17 2260 2111 1061 Blue 12
1 PM Wed 85 83 W 11 19 2175 2080 1030 Blue 11
2 PM Wed 86 83 WNW 12 20 2175 2080 1030 Blue 11
3 PM Wed 85 81 WNW 12 21 2113 2018 968 Blue 9
4 PM Wed 83 77 WNW 12 20 1956 1611 561 Blue 5
5 PM Wed 81 74 WNW 11 19 1623 1050 0 Blue 2
6 PM Wed 77 69 WNW 9 16 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 71 63 W 6 12 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 68 60 W 4 9 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 67 59 W 3 8 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 66 58 W 3 8 440 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 66 58 WSW 3 8 440 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 65 57 WSW 2 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 65 57 SSW 2 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 65 57 S 2 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 65 57 SSE 2 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 65 57 ESE 2 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 65 57 E 2 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 64 56 NE 2 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 64 56 NW 2 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 66 58 W 2 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 70 63 W 3 8 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 75 70 W 4 10 440 1050 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 79 75 WSW 5 12 1796 1050 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Thu 83 80 WSW 8 14 2082 1953 903 Blue 8
1 PM Thu 82 79 W 9 16 2050 1873 823 Blue 7
2 PM Thu 83 80 W 10 17 2082 1953 903 Blue 8
3 PM Thu 82 78 W 10 17 2019 1793 743 Blue 6
4 PM Thu 80 74 W 9 16 1623 1050 0 Blue 2
5 PM Thu 78 71 W 8 14 440 1050 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 74 66 W 6 12 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 68 60 W 5 11 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 66 58 W 4 10 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 64 56 W 4 9 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 64 56 WNW 3 8 440 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 63 55 WNW 3 8 440 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 62 54 W 2 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 62 54 S 2 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 62 54 SSE 2 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 62 54 SE 2 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 62 54 ENE 2 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 62 54 NE 2 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 61 53 NE 2 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 61 53 NE 2 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 63 55 N 2 4 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 67 60 N 2 4 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 72 66 N 2 4 440 1050 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 76 72 WSW 5 9 892 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 79 76 WSW 5 9 1876 1252 202 Blue 4
1 PM Fri 78 75 WSW 5 9 1796 1050 0 Blue 3
2 PM Fri 79 76 W 9 16 1876 1252 202 Blue 4
3 PM Fri 78 74 W 9 16 1623 1050 0 Blue 2
4 PM Fri 77 71 W 9 16 440 1050 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 75 68 W 8 12 440 1050 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 72 64 W 8 12 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 67 59 W 8 12 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 65 57 W 4 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 64 56 W 4 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 64 56 W 4 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 64 56 WNW 2 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 63 55 WNW 2 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 63 55 WNW 2 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 63 55 NW 2 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 63 55 NW 2 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 63 55 NW 2 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 63 55 N 2 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 62 54 N 2 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 62 54 N 2 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 64 56 NW 2 4 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 67 59 NW 2 4 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 72 65 NW 2 4 440 1050 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 75 71 W 5 9 440 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 78 75 W 5 9 1796 1050 0 Blue 3
1 PM Sat 77 74 W 5 9 1623 1050 0 Blue 2
2 PM Sat 78 75 W 10 16 1796 1050 0 Blue 3
3 PM Sat 77 73 W 10 16 1260 1050 0 Blue 1
4 PM Sat 76 70 W 10 16 440 1050 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 74 66 WNW 9 13 440 1050 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 71 63 WNW 9 13 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 66 58 WNW 9 13 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 64 56 W 4 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 63 55 W 4 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 63 55 W 4 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 63 55 NW 3 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 62 54 NW 3 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 62 54 NW 3 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 62 54 NW 2 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 62 54 NW 2 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 62 54 NW 2 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 62 54 NW 2 4 440 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 61 53 NW 2 4 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 61 53 NW 2 4 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 63 55 NNW 2 4 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 66 58 NNW 2 4 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 70 63 NNW 2 4 440 1050 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 73 69 W 6 9 440 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 76 72 W 6 9 892 1050 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 75 72 W 6 9 892 1050 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 76 72 W 10 16 892 1050 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 75 70 W 10 16 440 1050 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 74 68 W 10 16 440 1050 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 72 65 W 9 13 440 1050 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 69 61 W 9 13 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 64 56 W 9 13 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 62 54 W 4 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 61 53 W 4 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 61 53 W 4 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst