Detailed Predictions for: Marshall
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.2099918919, -117.302860125, 4040
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

2 AUG 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Mon 72 70 E 3 6 2697 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 73 71 NE 3 8 2697 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 74 72 NNE 4 10 2697 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 74 72 NNE 4 10 2697 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 74 72 NNE 4 9 2697 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 75 73 NNE 4 9 2697 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 77 75 NNE 3 9 2697 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 79 77 NNE 2 6 2697 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 82 81 NNE 1 4 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 84 85 NW 2 6 3684 4040 0 Blue 1
10 AM Mon 86 89 SSW 4 9 5074 4040 0 Blue 5
11 AM Mon 89 94 SSW 5 10 11051 7450 3410 Blue 10
12 Noon Mon 91 97 SSW 6 12 12203 10950 6910 Blue 13
1 PM Mon 94 101 SSW 6 13 13569 12461 8421 Blue 17
2 PM Mon 96 102 SW 9 16 13869 12826 8786 Blue 18
3 PM Mon 96 101 SW 10 17 13569 12461 8421 Blue 17
4 PM Mon 97 100 SW 11 18 13265 12092 8052 Blue 16
5 PM Mon 95 96 SW 10 17 11824 9871 5831 Blue 12
6 PM Mon 92 91 SSW 8 13 7662 4713 673 Blue 7
7 PM Mon 88 86 SSE 5 10 4037 4040 0 Blue 2
8 PM Mon 84 82 SSE 3 8 2962 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 81 79 SE 2 6 2697 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 80 78 E 2 6 2697 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 78 76 ENE 2 6 2697 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 78 76 ENE 2 6 2697 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 78 76 NE 2 6 2697 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 77 75 NE 3 8 2697 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 76 74 NE 3 8 2697 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 75 73 NE 3 8 2697 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 75 73 NE 3 8 2697 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 78 76 NE 2 6 2697 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 81 79 NE 1 5 2697 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 85 84 NE 1 4 3328 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 87 88 E 2 6 4732 4040 0 Blue 4
10 AM Tue 89 92 SSE 3 8 8989 5053 1013 Blue 8
11 AM Tue 91 96 SSW 5 10 11824 9871 5831 Blue 12
12 Noon Tue 94 100 SSW 6 12 13265 12092 8052 Blue 16
1 PM Tue 96 103 SSW 8 13 14167 13164 9124 Blue 19
2 PM Tue 98 104 SW 9 16 14462 13465 9425 Blue 20
3 PM Tue 98 103 SW 9 17 14167 13164 9124 Blue 19
4 PM Tue 99 102 SW 10 17 13869 12826 8786 Blue 18
5 PM Tue 96 97 SW 9 16 12203 10950 6910 Blue 13
6 PM Tue 93 92 SSW 6 12 8989 5053 1013 Blue 8
7 PM Tue 89 87 S 4 9 4386 4040 0 Blue 3
8 PM Tue 85 83 S 2 6 3145 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 82 80 SSE 1 5 2697 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 80 78 ESE 2 5 2697 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 79 77 E 2 6 2697 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 78 76 E 2 6 2697 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 77 75 ENE 2 6 2697 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 76 74 NE 2 6 2697 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 75 73 NE 2 6 2697 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 74 72 NE 2 6 2697 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 74 72 ENE 2 5 2697 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 76 74 E 1 5 2697 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 78 76 S 1 5 2697 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 82 81 SSW 1 5 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 84 85 SSW 2 6 3684 4040 0 Blue 1
10 AM Wed 87 90 SSW 4 9 5890 4371 331 Blue 6
11 AM Wed 90 95 SSW 5 11 11441 8766 4726 Blue 11
12 Noon Wed 93 99 SSW 6 13 12943 11717 7677 Blue 15
1 PM Wed 96 103 SSW 8 14 14167 13164 9124 Blue 19
2 PM Wed 98 104 SSW 9 16 14462 13465 9425 Blue 20
3 PM Wed 98 103 SSW 10 17 14167 13164 9124 Blue 19
4 PM Wed 98 101 SSW 10 17 13569 12461 8421 Blue 17
5 PM Wed 96 97 SSW 9 16 12203 10950 6910 Blue 13
6 PM Wed 92 91 SW 8 13 7662 4713 673 Blue 7
7 PM Wed 88 86 SW 5 10 4037 4040 0 Blue 2
8 PM Wed 84 82 SW 3 8 2962 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 81 79 S 2 6 2697 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 79 77 SE 2 6 2697 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 78 76 ESE 3 8 2697 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 77 75 E 3 6 2697 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 76 74 ENE 2 6 2697 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 75 73 ENE 2 6 2697 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 73 71 ENE 3 6 2697 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 72 70 NE 3 8 2697 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 72 70 NE 3 8 2697 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 75 73 NE 3 8 2697 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 79 77 NE 3 8 2697 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 82 81 SSW 3 8 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 85 86 SSW 3 8 4037 4040 0 Blue 2
10 AM Thu 87 90 SSW 3 8 5890 4371 331 Blue 6
11 AM Thu 88 93 S 6 14 10101 5700 1660 Blue 9
12 Noon Thu 90 96 S 6 14 11824 9871 5831 Blue 12
1 PM Thu 92 99 S 6 14 12943 11717 7677 Blue 15
2 PM Thu 94 100 SSW 10 20 13265 12092 8052 Blue 16
3 PM Thu 94 99 SSW 10 20 12943 11717 7677 Blue 15
4 PM Thu 95 98 SSW 10 20 12575 11336 7296 Blue 14
5 PM Thu 94 95 SSW 10 20 11441 8766 4726 Blue 11
6 PM Thu 91 90 SSW 10 20 5890 4371 331 Blue 6
7 PM Thu 87 85 SSW 10 20 3684 4040 0 Blue 1
8 PM Thu 83 81 S 6 13 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 80 78 S 6 13 2697 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 78 76 S 6 13 2697 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 76 74 E 4 11 2697 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 75 73 E 4 11 2697 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 74 72 E 4 11 2697 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 72 70 E 3 9 2697 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 70 68 E 3 9 2697 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 69 67 E 3 9 2697 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 69 67 E 4 8 2697 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 71 69 E 4 8 2697 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 75 73 E 4 8 2697 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 79 78 SSE 3 8 2697 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 82 83 SSE 3 8 3145 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 84 87 SSE 3 8 4386 4040 0 Blue 3
11 AM Fri 87 92 S 6 14 8989 5053 1013 Blue 8
12 Noon Fri 89 95 S 6 14 11441 8766 4726 Blue 11
1 PM Fri 91 97 S 6 14 12203 10950 6910 Blue 13
2 PM Fri 92 98 SSW 9 20 12575 11336 7296 Blue 14
3 PM Fri 92 96 SSW 9 20 11824 9871 5831 Blue 12
4 PM Fri 92 95 SSW 9 20 11441 8766 4726 Blue 11
5 PM Fri 91 92 SSW 11 19 8989 5053 1013 Blue 8
6 PM Fri 87 86 SSW 11 19 4037 4040 0 Blue 2
7 PM Fri 83 81 SSW 11 19 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 79 77 S 6 16 2697 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 76 74 S 6 16 2697 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 73 71 S 6 16 2697 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 71 69 SE 5 11 2697 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 70 68 SE 5 11 2697 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 69 67 SE 5 11 2697 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 68 66 ESE 4 10 2697 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 67 65 ESE 4 10 2697 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 66 64 ESE 4 10 2697 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 66 64 ESE 3 9 2697 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 68 66 ESE 3 9 2697 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 70 68 ESE 3 9 2697 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 74 73 S 3 9 2697 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 77 78 S 3 9 2697 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 80 82 S 3 9 2962 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 83 88 SSW 6 14 4732 4040 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Sat 86 92 SSW 6 14 8989 5053 1013 Blue 8
1 PM Sat 88 95 SSW 6 14 11441 8766 4726 Blue 11
2 PM Sat 90 96 SSW 10 20 11824 9871 5831 Blue 12
3 PM Sat 89 94 SSW 10 20 11051 7450 3410 Blue 10
4 PM Sat 90 93 SSW 10 20 10101 5700 1660 Blue 9
5 PM Sat 88 89 SW 12 20 5074 4040 0 Blue 5
6 PM Sat 85 84 SW 12 20 3328 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 82 80 SW 12 20 2697 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 78 76 S 6 14 2697 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 75 73 S 6 14 2697 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 73 71 S 6 14 2697 4040 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst