Detailed Predictions for: Marshall
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.2099918919, -117.302860125, 4040
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

24 JUL 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 77 75 SSW 2 5 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 77 75 S 1 5 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 76 74 S 1 5 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 75 73 S 1 4 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 76 74 SSE 1 1 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 75 73 SSE 1 1 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 75 73 SSE 1 1 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 74 72 SSE 1 1 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 77 76 S 1 5 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 81 82 S 1 5 3008 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 83 86 SSW 2 6 3380 4040 0 Blue 3
11 AM Wed 86 90 SSW 4 10 4015 4040 0 Blue 7
12 Noon Wed 90 95 SSW 5 10 7816 4918 878 Blue 12
1 PM Wed 92 98 SSW 5 12 9485 7654 3614 Blue 15
2 PM Wed 93 98 SSW 8 13 9485 7654 3614 Blue 15
3 PM Wed 94 98 SSW 8 14 9485 7654 3614 Blue 15
4 PM Wed 94 96 SSW 8 14 8368 5414 1374 Blue 13
5 PM Wed 93 93 SSW 8 14 5447 4040 0 Blue 10
6 PM Wed 92 91 SSW 6 12 4334 4040 0 Blue 8
7 PM Wed 88 86 S 5 11 3380 4040 0 Blue 3
8 PM Wed 83 81 S 4 9 2888 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 80 78 S 3 8 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 79 77 S 2 6 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 77 75 S 2 5 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 76 74 SW 1 5 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 76 74 W 1 5 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 75 73 NW 1 4 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 75 73 NNW 1 5 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 75 73 NNE 1 5 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 75 73 ENE 1 5 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 75 73 E 1 5 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 74 72 SSE 1 1 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 77 76 S 1 1 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 80 81 S 2 5 2888 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 84 87 S 3 8 3467 4040 0 Blue 4
11 AM Thu 87 92 S 4 9 4954 4040 0 Blue 9
12 Noon Thu 90 96 SSW 5 11 8368 5414 1374 Blue 13
1 PM Thu 92 98 SSW 6 13 9485 7654 3614 Blue 15
2 PM Thu 94 100 SSW 8 14 12733 8727 4687 White 17
3 PM Thu 95 99 SSW 9 16 11199 8311 4271 Blue 16
4 PM Thu 95 97 SSW 10 17 8825 6473 2433 Blue 14
5 PM Thu 94 95 SSW 10 17 7816 4918 878 Blue 12
6 PM Thu 91 90 SSW 9 16 4015 4040 0 Blue 7
7 PM Thu 87 85 S 8 13 3293 4040 0 Blue 2
8 PM Thu 83 81 S 5 11 2888 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 81 79 S 4 10 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 79 77 SSE 3 8 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 78 76 SSE 3 6 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 76 74 SSE 2 6 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 76 74 S 2 6 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 75 73 S 2 6 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 74 72 S 2 5 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 74 72 SSE 2 5 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 74 72 S 2 5 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 74 72 S 2 6 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 74 72 S 2 6 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 76 75 S 3 8 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 79 80 S 4 9 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 82 85 S 5 10 3293 4040 0 Blue 2
11 AM Fri 86 91 S 5 12 4334 4040 0 Blue 8
12 Noon Fri 88 94 S 6 13 6616 4308 268 Blue 11
1 PM Fri 91 97 SSW 8 13 8825 6473 2433 Blue 14
2 PM Fri 92 98 SSW 8 14 9485 7654 3614 Blue 15
3 PM Fri 92 96 SSW 9 16 8368 5414 1374 Blue 13
4 PM Fri 92 95 SW 9 16 7816 4918 878 Blue 12
5 PM Fri 90 91 SW 9 16 4334 4040 0 Blue 8
6 PM Fri 86 85 SW 8 13 3293 4040 0 Blue 2
7 PM Fri 82 80 SSW 5 11 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 78 76 SSW 4 9 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 76 74 SSW 3 8 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 74 72 SSW 3 8 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 73 71 S 2 6 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 71 69 S 2 6 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 70 68 S 2 6 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 69 67 S 2 6 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 68 66 S 2 6 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 67 65 S 2 6 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 66 64 S 2 6 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 66 64 S 2 6 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 67 65 S 2 6 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 69 68 S 2 6 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 72 73 S 2 6 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 76 79 S 2 6 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 80 85 SSW 4 10 3293 4040 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Sat 83 89 SSW 4 10 3925 4040 0 Blue 6
1 PM Sat 85 91 SSW 4 10 4334 4040 0 Blue 8
2 PM Sat 87 93 SW 5 12 5447 4040 0 Blue 10
3 PM Sat 87 92 SW 5 12 4954 4040 0 Blue 9
4 PM Sat 87 90 SW 5 12 4015 4040 0 Blue 7
5 PM Sat 85 86 SW 6 13 3380 4040 0 Blue 3
6 PM Sat 81 80 SW 6 13 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 77 75 SW 6 13 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 73 71 SSW 4 9 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 70 68 SSW 4 9 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 68 66 SSW 4 9 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 67 65 SSW 2 6 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 66 64 SSW 2 6 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 65 63 SSW 2 6 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 64 62 S 2 6 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 63 61 S 2 6 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 63 61 S 2 6 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 63 61 S 2 6 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 63 61 S 2 6 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 64 62 S 2 6 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 66 65 S 2 6 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 68 68 S 2 6 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 72 74 S 2 6 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 76 80 SSW 2 6 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 79 85 SSW 2 6 3293 4040 0 Blue 2
1 PM Sun 82 88 SSW 2 6 3703 4040 0 Blue 5
2 PM Sun 84 90 SW 4 9 4015 4040 0 Blue 7
3 PM Sun 85 89 SW 4 9 3925 4040 0 Blue 6
4 PM Sun 85 87 SW 4 9 3467 4040 0 Blue 4
5 PM Sun 84 85 SW 5 12 3293 4040 0 Blue 2
6 PM Sun 81 80 SW 5 12 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 76 74 SW 5 12 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 72 70 SW 3 8 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 70 68 SW 3 8 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 68 66 SW 3 8 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 67 65 SSW 2 5 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 66 64 SSW 2 5 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 65 63 SSW 2 5 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 64 62 S 2 5 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 63 61 S 2 5 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 63 61 S 2 5 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 63 61 SSE 2 5 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 64 62 SSE 2 5 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 65 63 SSE 2 5 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 68 67 S 2 5 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 71 72 S 2 5 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 74 77 S 2 5 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 78 83 SSW 2 6 3120 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 81 87 SSW 2 6 3467 4040 0 Blue 4
1 PM Mon 84 90 SSW 2 6 4015 4040 0 Blue 7
2 PM Mon 86 92 SW 4 9 4954 4040 0 Blue 9
3 PM Mon 87 91 SW 4 9 4334 4040 0 Blue 8
4 PM Mon 87 90 SW 4 9 4015 4040 0 Blue 7
5 PM Mon 86 87 SW 5 10 3467 4040 0 Blue 4
6 PM Mon 83 82 SW 5 10 3008 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 78 76 SW 5 10 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 74 72 SW 2 6 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 72 70 SW 2 6 2844 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 70 68 SW 2 6 2844 4040 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst