Detailed Predictions for: Marshall
Launch Altitude (f): 4040
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

2 DEC 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 55 53 N 26 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 54 52 N 28 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 54 52 N 26 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 54 52 N 26 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 55 53 N 25 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 57 56 N 25 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 59 58 N 24 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 62 62 N 24 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 64 64 N 26 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 64 64 N 23 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 64 63 N 23 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 64 62 N 23 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 63 61 N 25 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 61 59 N 28 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 59 57 N 30 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 57 55 N 31 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 56 54 N 31 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 55 53 N 31 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 54 52 N 31 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 53 51 N 33 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 52 50 N 35 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 50 48 N 36 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 50 48 N 37 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 48 46 N 37 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 47 45 N 38 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 45 43 N 39 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 44 42 N 40 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 44 42 N 40 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 45 43 N 39 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 48 47 N 38 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 50 49 N 36 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 54 54 N 35 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 56 56 N 35 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 58 58 N 33 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 58 57 N 32 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 58 56 N 32 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 57 55 N 31 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 55 53 N 31 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 53 51 N 31 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 52 50 N 31 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 51 49 N 31 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 50 48 N 30 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 50 48 N 30 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 50 48 N 30 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 50 48 N 31 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 50 48 N 31 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 50 48 N 32 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 50 48 N 33 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 49 47 N 33 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 48 46 N 32 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 47 45 N 31 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 47 45 N 29 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 49 47 N 26 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 52 51 N 24 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 55 54 N 23 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 58 58 N 23 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 60 60 N 23 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 62 62 N 23 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 64 63 N 21 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 63 61 N 18 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 63 61 N 16 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 60 58 N 16 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 57 55 N 17 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 54 52 N 18 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 53 51 N 18 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 52 50 N 18 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 53 51 N 17 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 53 51 N 16 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 53 51 N 16 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 52 50 N 15 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 52 50 N 15 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 52 50 N 15 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 52 50 N 15 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 51 49 N 15 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 51 49 N 15 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 52 50 N 10 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 53 51 N 10 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 56 55 N 10 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 59 59 N 10 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 62 62 N 10 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 64 64 N 10 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 66 66 N 9 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 66 65 N 9 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 67 65 N 9 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 65 63 N 8 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 63 61 N 8 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 60 58 N 8 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 58 56 N 8 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 56 54 N 8 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 56 54 N 8 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 55 53 N 9 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 55 53 N 9 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 55 53 N 9 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 54 52 N 10 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 54 52 N 10 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 53 51 N 10 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 53 51 N 12 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 52 50 N 12 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 52 50 N 12 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 53 51 N 12 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 54 52 N 12 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 57 56 N 12 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 60 60 N 12 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 62 62 N 12 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 64 64 N 12 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 66 66 N 10 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 65 64 N 10 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 65 63 N 10 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 64 62 N 9 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 61 59 N 9 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 59 57 N 9 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 56 54 N 10 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 55 53 N 10 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 55 53 N 10 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 55 53 N 10 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 55 53 N 10 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 55 53 N 10 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 54 52 N 12 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 54 52 N 12 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 53 51 N 12 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 53 51 N 13 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 52 50 N 13 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 51 49 N 13 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 52 50 N 10 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 54 52 N 10 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 56 55 N 10 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 60 60 N 8 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 62 62 N 8 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 64 64 N 8 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 66 66 N 7 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 66 65 N 7 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 66 64 N 7 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 66 64 N 7 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 63 61 N 7 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 61 59 N 7 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 58 56 NE 6 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 57 55 NE 6 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 57 55 NE 6 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 57 55 NE 8 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 57 55 NE 8 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 56 54 NE 8 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 56 54 N 13 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 55 53 N 13 2779 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 54 52 N 13 2779 4040 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst