Detailed Predictions for: Marshall
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.2099918919, -117.302860125, 4040
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 5 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Tue 55 53 NNE 5 11 3730 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 54 52 NNE 5 11 3730 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 53 51 NNE 5 11 3730 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 52 50 NNE 5 11 3730 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 51 49 NNE 5 11 3730 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 51 49 NNE 5 12 3730 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 51 49 NNE 5 12 3730 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 54 52 NW 5 12 3730 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 50 48 NNE 6 12 3730 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 53 52 NNE 5 10 3730 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 58 58 N 4 4 3730 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 66 66 N 3 4 5292 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 76 77 NNW 3 3 12076 9669 5629 Blue 11
1 PM Tue 80 80 NW 3 4 15000 11959 7919 Blue 14
2 PM Tue 81 80 NW 3 4 15000 11959 7919 Blue 14
3 PM Tue 80 78 NNW 4 5 12566 10655 6615 Blue 12
4 PM Tue 79 77 NNW 3 4 12076 9669 5629 Blue 11
5 PM Tue 74 72 NNW 2 4 8654 7838 3798 Blue 6
6 PM Tue 70 68 N 3 7 7731 4326 286 Blue 2
7 PM Tue 68 66 NNE 4 8 5292 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 61 59 NNE 4 8 3730 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 59 57 NNE 3 8 3730 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 58 56 NNE 3 7 3730 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 57 55 NE 3 6 3730 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 49 47 NNE 2 5 3730 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 49 47 NNE 2 6 3730 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 57 55 NNE 3 6 3730 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 48 46 NE 3 7 3730 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 48 46 NE 2 6 3730 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 56 54 NE 3 6 3730 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 47 45 NE 2 4 3730 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 47 45 NE 1 3 3730 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 56 54 ENE 2 5 3730 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 56 55 E 1 2 3730 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 67 67 S 2 2 6676 4040 0 Blue 1
11 AM Wed 71 71 S 4 4 8377 7693 3653 Blue 5
12 Noon Wed 72 73 SW 4 5 9111 8130 4090 Blue 7
1 PM Wed 73 73 WSW 6 7 9111 8130 4090 Blue 7
2 PM Wed 73 72 SW 4 5 8654 7838 3798 Blue 6
3 PM Wed 72 70 SW 5 6 8163 6574 2534 Blue 4
4 PM Wed 71 69 SW 4 4 7853 5231 1191 Blue 3
5 PM Wed 72 70 WSW 3 3 8163 6574 2534 Blue 4
6 PM Wed 62 60 WSW 2 3 3730 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 56 54 SSE 0 1 3730 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 62 60 SSE 1 2 3730 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 55 53 S 0 1 3730 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 55 53 SE 1 3 3730 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 59 57 SSE 2 4 3730 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 53 51 SE 2 5 3730 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 52 50 SE 2 5 3730 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 56 54 SE 3 7 3730 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 51 49 SE 4 8 3730 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 51 49 SE 3 7 3730 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 54 52 SSE 2 5 3730 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 49 47 SE 2 5 3730 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 46 44 SE 2 4 3730 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 54 52 SE 2 6 3730 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 54 53 SE 2 3 3730 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 61 60 SSE 2 3 3730 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 61 61 S 2 2 3730 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 65 65 S 4 4 4335 4040 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 65 65 SSW 4 5 4335 4040 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 67 66 SW 4 4 5292 4040 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 65 63 SW 3 3 3730 4040 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 65 63 WSW 2 3 3730 4040 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 65 63 WSW 3 3 3730 4040 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 50 48 W 2 6 3730 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 46 44 WNW 1 3 3730 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 50 48 NW 1 2 3730 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 43 41 NNW 3 6 3730 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 42 40 N 2 4 3730 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 48 46 NNW 3 7 3730 4040 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst