Detailed Predictions for: Marshall
Launch Altitude (f): 4040
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

17 NOV 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sun 64 62 N 24 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 63 61 N 24 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 63 61 N 24 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 64 62 N 24 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 65 63 N 25 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 68 67 N 24 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 71 71 N 24 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 74 75 N 23 6221 4040 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sun 76 77 N 23 6932 5417 1377 Blue 3
1 PM Sun 78 79 N 21 7287 6578 2538 Blue 5
2 PM Sun 78 78 N 20 7110 6180 2140 Blue 4
3 PM Sun 79 78 N 18 7110 6180 2140 Blue 4
4 PM Sun 77 75 N 15 6221 4040 0 Blue 1
5 PM Sun 74 72 N 16 2806 4040 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 71 69 N 16 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 68 66 N 16 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 66 64 N 16 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 66 64 N 16 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 65 63 N 16 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 65 63 N 15 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 64 62 N 16 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 64 62 N 17 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 64 62 N 17 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 64 62 N 17 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 63 61 N 20 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 62 60 N 18 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 62 60 N 18 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 63 61 N 16 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 66 64 N 15 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 71 70 N 14 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 75 75 N 7 6221 4040 0 Blue 1
11 AM Mon 77 78 N 7 7110 6180 2140 Blue 4
12 Noon Mon 78 79 N 8 7287 6578 2538 Blue 5
1 PM Mon 79 79 N 7 7287 6578 2538 Blue 5
2 PM Mon 78 77 N 6 6932 5417 1377 Blue 3
3 PM Mon 79 77 N 6 6932 5417 1377 Blue 3
4 PM Mon 78 76 N 6 6624 4152 112 Blue 2
5 PM Mon 76 74 N 6 5543 4040 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 73 71 N 3 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 71 69 E 3 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 70 68 E 3 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 69 67 E 3 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 69 67 E 1 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 68 66 E 2 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 66 64 E 5 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 65 63 E 5 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 65 63 E 5 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 65 63 E 5 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 65 63 E 5 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 64 62 E 5 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 64 62 E 5 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 64 62 E 5 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 65 63 SE 6 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 67 65 SE 6 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 69 68 SE 7 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 70 69 S 8 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 69 68 S 9 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 70 69 S 9 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 69 67 S 10 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 67 65 SW 9 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 65 63 SW 9 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 63 61 S 8 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 60 58 S 12 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 58 56 SE 15 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 56 54 SE 14 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 56 54 SE 15 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 56 54 SE 17 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 56 54 SE 13 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 56 54 SE 13 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 56 54 SE 15 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 56 54 SE 15 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 56 54 SE 15 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 55 53 S 15 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 54 52 S 15 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 52 50 S 15 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 52 50 S 10 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 53 51 S 10 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 55 53 S 10 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 56 54 S 10 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 56 54 S 10 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 56 54 S 10 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 57 55 S 9 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 56 54 S 9 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 56 54 S 9 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 55 53 S 7 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 55 53 S 7 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 54 52 S 7 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 54 52 S 8 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 54 52 S 8 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 54 52 S 8 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 54 52 SE 9 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 54 52 SE 9 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 54 52 SE 9 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 53 51 SE 9 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 53 51 SE 9 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 54 52 SE 9 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 54 52 E 7 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 53 51 E 7 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 53 51 E 7 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 53 51 E 6 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 53 51 E 6 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 54 52 E 6 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 54 53 SE 6 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 55 54 SE 6 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 55 54 SE 6 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 56 55 SW 6 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 56 54 SW 6 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 55 53 SW 6 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 56 54 SW 6 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 55 53 SW 6 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 55 53 SW 6 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 54 52 SW 3 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 54 52 SW 3 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 54 52 SW 3 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 54 52 E 3 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 54 52 E 3 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 53 51 E 3 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 53 51 NE 5 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 53 51 NE 5 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 53 51 NE 5 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 53 51 NE 7 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 53 51 NE 7 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 53 51 NE 7 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 53 51 NE 9 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 54 52 NE 9 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 56 55 NE 9 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 57 57 SE 5 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 58 58 SE 5 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 58 58 SE 5 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 59 59 SW 6 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 59 58 SW 6 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 58 56 SW 6 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 59 57 W 3 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 58 56 W 3 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 57 55 W 3 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 56 54 S 3 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 56 54 S 3 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 55 53 S 3 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 54 52 N 5 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 54 52 N 5 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 54 52 N 5 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 54 52 N 8 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 53 51 N 8 2631 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 53 51 N 8 2631 4040 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst