Detailed Predictions for: Mentone
Launch Altitude (f): 3170
LZ Altitude (f): 1900
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

18 NOV 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Mon 64 62 E 3 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 64 62 E 3 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 65 63 NE 3 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 67 65 NE 3 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 70 68 NE 2 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 74 73 NE 1 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 77 77 SW 2 6667 3170 0 Blue 1
11 AM Mon 79 80 SW 3 7961 6619 3449 Blue 4
12 Noon Mon 80 81 W 3 8655 7020 3850 Blue 5
1 PM Mon 81 81 W 3 8655 7020 3850 Blue 5
2 PM Mon 81 80 W 3 7961 6619 3449 Blue 4
3 PM Mon 81 79 W 3 7471 5171 2001 Blue 3
4 PM Mon 80 78 W 2 7072 3279 109 Blue 2
5 PM Mon 76 74 NW 2 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 71 69 NW 3 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 67 65 N 3 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 64 62 NE 3 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 63 61 NE 2 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 63 61 E 3 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 62 60 E 2 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 62 60 E 2 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 62 60 NE 2 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 63 61 NE 2 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 63 61 E 2 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 64 62 NE 3 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 64 62 NE 3 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 65 63 E 3 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 66 64 E 3 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 67 65 E 5 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 69 68 S 6 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 71 70 S 7 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 71 70 S 7 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 72 71 S 8 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 71 70 S 8 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 69 68 SW 7 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 66 64 SW 6 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 64 62 W 5 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 62 60 W 5 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 62 60 SW 5 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 61 59 S 5 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 60 58 S 5 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 58 56 S 5 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 56 54 S 5 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 55 53 S 6 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 54 52 SE 8 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 54 52 SE 9 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 54 52 S 9 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 53 51 S 9 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 52 50 SW 8 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 51 49 S 7 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 50 48 SE 7 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 49 47 SE 6 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 49 47 SE 5 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 50 48 S 5 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 50 48 S 5 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 50 48 S 5 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 51 49 S 5 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 51 49 S 6 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 51 49 S 7 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 50 48 S 7 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 51 49 S 7 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 50 48 S 6 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 50 48 S 3 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 49 47 S 2 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 49 47 S 3 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 48 46 S 5 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 48 46 S 7 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 48 46 S 7 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 49 47 S 6 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 49 47 S 5 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 50 48 SE 3 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 50 48 E 3 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 50 48 E 3 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 49 47 E 3 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 48 46 E 3 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 48 46 E 6 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 49 47 E 6 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 51 49 E 6 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 52 51 SW 5 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 54 53 SW 5 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 54 54 SW 5 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 55 54 S 7 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 55 54 S 7 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 54 52 S 7 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 55 53 SW 3 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 54 52 SW 3 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 54 52 SW 3 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 53 51 SW 1 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 52 50 SW 1 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 51 49 SW 1 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 51 49 E 2 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 50 48 E 2 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 50 48 E 2 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 50 48 E 5 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 50 48 E 5 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 50 48 E 5 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 50 48 E 6 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 50 48 E 6 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 50 48 E 6 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 51 49 E 5 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 53 51 E 5 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 54 53 E 5 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 56 56 W 3 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 58 58 W 3 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 59 59 W 3 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 59 59 W 5 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 60 59 W 5 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 59 57 W 5 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 60 58 SW 2 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 58 56 SW 2 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 56 54 SW 2 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 55 53 E 6 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 53 51 E 6 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 52 50 E 6 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 52 50 E 3 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 51 49 E 3 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 50 48 E 3 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 50 48 E 5 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 50 48 E 5 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 50 48 E 5 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 50 48 E 3 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 50 48 E 3 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 50 48 E 3 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 51 49 E 3 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 54 52 E 3 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 56 55 E 3 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 59 59 W 5 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 61 61 W 5 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 62 62 W 5 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 63 63 W 5 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 64 63 W 5 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 63 61 W 5 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 63 61 S 3 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 60 58 S 3 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 57 55 S 3 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 54 52 NW 3 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 52 50 NW 3 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 52 50 NW 3 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 51 49 E 1 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 51 49 E 1 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 51 49 E 1 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 51 49 NE 2 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 51 49 NE 2 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 51 49 NE 2 2585 3170 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst