Detailed Predictions for: Mentone
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.11893, -117.11256, 3170
LZ Altitude (f): 1900
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 5 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Tue 60 58 ENE 5 11 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 59 57 ENE 6 12 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 59 57 ENE 6 12 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 58 56 ENE 6 13 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 58 56 ENE 8 14 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 58 56 ENE 8 14 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 58 56 ENE 8 14 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 58 56 ENE 6 13 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 60 58 E 4 10 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 65 64 ENE 3 8 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 68 68 SW 3 8 3286 3170 0 Blue 1
11 AM Tue 72 72 WSW 4 9 5382 3484 314 Blue 5
12 Noon Tue 73 74 WSW 4 10 7731 4371 1201 Blue 7
1 PM Tue 74 74 W 4 10 7731 4371 1201 Blue 7
2 PM Tue 74 73 W 4 10 6708 3683 513 Blue 6
3 PM Tue 74 72 W 4 9 5382 3484 314 Blue 5
4 PM Tue 72 70 W 4 9 3687 3170 0 Blue 3
5 PM Tue 70 68 NW 4 10 3286 3170 0 Blue 1
6 PM Tue 66 64 NNE 5 10 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 65 63 NE 5 11 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 62 60 NE 5 11 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 62 60 NE 5 11 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 61 59 NE 5 11 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 61 59 NE 5 11 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 61 59 NE 5 11 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 60 58 NE 5 11 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 60 58 NE 5 11 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 60 58 NE 5 11 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 59 57 NE 5 11 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 58 56 NE 5 11 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 58 56 NE 5 11 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 58 56 NE 5 11 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 60 58 N 4 10 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 64 63 W 4 9 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 68 68 WSW 4 9 3286 3170 0 Blue 1
11 AM Wed 71 71 WSW 4 10 4411 3284 114 Blue 4
12 Noon Wed 72 72 WSW 5 11 5382 3484 314 Blue 5
1 PM Wed 72 72 WSW 6 12 5382 3484 314 Blue 5
2 PM Wed 72 71 W 6 13 4411 3284 114 Blue 4
3 PM Wed 71 69 W 6 12 3488 3170 0 Blue 2
4 PM Wed 69 67 W 5 11 3084 3170 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 66 64 WNW 4 9 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 62 60 NNW 2 6 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 60 58 N 1 1 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 58 56 NNE 1 1 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 56 54 NE 1 5 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 55 53 ENE 2 5 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 55 53 ENE 2 6 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 55 53 ENE 2 6 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 54 52 NE 2 6 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 54 52 ENE 2 6 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 53 51 ENE 2 6 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 52 50 E 2 6 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 51 49 E 2 6 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 50 48 E 2 6 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 50 48 E 2 6 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 53 51 SE 3 8 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 56 55 S 3 8 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 59 58 SW 4 9 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 61 61 SW 4 10 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 62 62 WSW 5 11 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 63 63 WSW 5 12 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 64 63 WSW 6 12 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 63 61 WSW 6 13 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 61 59 W 6 13 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 59 57 W 5 11 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 56 54 NW 4 10 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 53 51 N 3 8 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 52 50 N 3 8 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 50 48 NNE 3 9 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 50 48 NNE 4 10 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 49 47 NNE 6 12 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 49 47 N 9 16 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 48 46 N 10 18 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 48 46 N 10 17 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 47 45 N 8 14 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 47 45 N 6 13 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 46 44 N 6 13 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 46 44 N 6 13 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 46 44 NNE 8 14 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 49 47 NNE 8 14 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 52 51 NNE 8 14 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 56 56 S 9 16 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 59 59 S 9 16 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 61 61 S 9 16 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 63 63 WSW 8 14 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 63 62 WSW 8 14 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 63 61 WSW 8 14 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 61 59 S 5 11 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 59 57 S 5 11 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 56 54 S 5 11 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 53 51 NE 11 19 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 51 49 NE 11 19 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 51 49 NE 11 19 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 50 48 ENE 11 18 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 50 48 ENE 11 18 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 50 48 ENE 11 18 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 50 48 NE 9 16 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 49 47 NE 9 16 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 49 47 NE 9 16 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 48 46 ENE 9 16 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 48 46 ENE 9 16 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 48 46 ENE 9 16 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 48 46 NE 8 14 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 51 49 NE 8 14 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 55 54 NE 8 14 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 58 58 SSW 6 12 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 61 61 SSW 6 12 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 63 63 SSW 6 12 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 64 64 SW 8 13 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 64 63 SW 8 13 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 63 61 SW 8 13 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 62 60 WSW 5 11 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 59 57 WSW 5 11 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 57 55 WSW 5 11 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 54 52 ENE 6 12 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 53 51 ENE 6 12 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 52 50 ENE 6 12 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 52 50 ENE 5 11 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 52 50 ENE 5 11 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 52 50 ENE 5 11 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 52 50 ENE 8 13 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 52 50 ENE 8 13 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 52 50 ENE 8 13 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 52 50 ENE 9 16 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 51 49 ENE 9 16 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 51 49 ENE 9 16 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 52 50 ENE 9 16 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 54 52 ENE 9 16 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 58 57 ENE 9 16 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 62 61 SSW 5 11 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 65 65 SSW 5 11 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 68 68 SSW 5 11 3286 3170 0 Blue 1
1 PM Sun 69 69 SW 6 12 3488 3170 0 Blue 2
2 PM Sun 69 68 SW 6 12 3286 3170 0 Blue 1
3 PM Sun 68 66 SW 6 12 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 66 64 WSW 4 10 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 63 61 WSW 4 10 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 60 58 WSW 4 10 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 58 56 NE 6 13 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 56 54 NE 6 13 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 56 54 NE 6 13 2717 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 55 53 NE 8 14 2717 3170 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst