Detailed Predictions for: Mentone
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.11893, -117.11256, 3170
LZ Altitude (f): 1900
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

23 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 64 62 S 3 4 2756 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 66 64 S 3 5 2756 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 69 67 S 4 5 2781 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 68 66 S 4 5 2756 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 67 65 S 4 5 2756 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 67 65 S 3 5 2756 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 66 64 S 4 6 2756 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 66 64 SSW 4 7 2756 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 66 64 SSW 5 8 2756 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 68 67 SW 5 8 2781 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 70 69 SW 6 9 2914 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 72 72 SW 6 9 3114 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 73 75 SW 8 10 3313 3170 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 75 80 SW 9 12 3890 3446 276 Blue 2
2 PM Wed 77 83 SW 11 13 4817 3885 715 Blue 5
3 PM Wed 76 81 SW 11 14 4128 3516 346 Blue 3
4 PM Wed 75 78 SW 11 15 3517 3313 143 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 73 74 SW 11 15 3247 3170 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 72 71 SW 9 15 3047 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 71 69 SSW 8 14 2914 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 70 68 SSW 6 14 2848 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 67 65 S 6 12 2756 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 65 63 S 5 10 2756 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 63 61 S 4 8 2756 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 62 60 SSE 4 7 2756 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 62 60 SSE 4 6 2756 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 61 59 SSE 4 6 2756 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 61 59 SSE 4 6 2756 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 60 58 SSE 3 6 2756 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 60 58 SSE 3 6 2756 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 61 59 S 4 6 2756 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 62 60 SSW 4 7 2756 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 64 64 SW 4 7 2756 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 66 67 SW 6 8 2781 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 69 73 SW 7 9 3180 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 71 77 SW 8 11 3447 3246 76 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 73 80 SW 9 11 3890 3446 276 Blue 2
1 PM Thu 74 81 SW 9 11 4128 3516 346 Blue 3
2 PM Thu 75 81 SW 10 12 4128 3516 346 Blue 3
3 PM Thu 74 79 SW 10 12 3652 3379 209 Blue 1
4 PM Thu 73 76 SW 9 13 3380 3180 10 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 72 73 SW 9 13 3180 3170 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 71 70 SW 7 12 2981 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 69 67 SSW 6 11 2781 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 67 65 S 4 9 2756 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 66 64 S 3 7 2756 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 66 64 SSE 3 5 2756 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 65 63 SE 2 3 2756 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 65 63 SE 2 3 2756 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 65 63 ESE 2 3 2756 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 65 63 ESE 2 3 2756 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 64 62 ESE 2 4 2756 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 64 62 ESE 2 4 2756 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 64 62 ESE 3 5 2756 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 66 64 SSE 2 4 2756 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 68 66 S 2 4 2756 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 70 70 SW 2 3 2981 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 72 73 WSW 4 5 3180 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 74 78 WSW 5 7 3517 3313 143 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 77 83 WSW 7 9 4817 3885 715 Blue 5
12 Noon Fri 78 85 WSW 7 9 8193 4357 1187 Blue 7
1 PM Fri 79 86 WSW 8 10 9423 4788 1618 Blue 8
2 PM Fri 81 87 SW 9 11 10554 6446 3276 Blue 9
3 PM Fri 79 84 SW 9 11 6639 4121 951 Blue 6
4 PM Fri 78 81 SW 9 13 4128 3516 346 Blue 3
5 PM Fri 77 78 SW 9 13 3517 3313 143 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 75 74 SW 7 11 3247 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 72 70 SSW 5 8 2981 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 70 68 S 4 6 2848 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 70 68 SSE 3 5 2848 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 69 67 SE 3 5 2781 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 69 67 ESE 2 4 2781 3170 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst