Detailed Predictions for: Mentone
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.11893, -117.11256, 3170
LZ Altitude (f): 1900
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 26 APR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Fri 50 48 W 4 9 3882 3170 0 White 2
1 AM Fri 50 48 W 3 8 3882 3170 0 White 2
2 AM Fri 50 48 WNW 2 6 3882 3170 0 White 2
3 AM Fri 50 48 W 3 6 3882 3170 0 White 2
4 AM Fri 50 48 WSW 3 8 3882 3170 0 White 2
5 AM Fri 50 48 WSW 3 8 3882 3170 0 White 2
6 AM Fri 50 48 WSW 4 9 3882 3170 0 White 2
7 AM Fri 50 48 SW 3 9 3882 3170 0 White 2
8 AM Fri 50 48 SSW 4 9 3882 3170 0 White 2
9 AM Fri 50 48 S 4 10 3882 3170 0 White 2
10 AM Fri 51 50 SSW 5 11 4329 3692 522 White 4
11 AM Fri 52 52 WSW 6 12 4773 4462 1292 White 6
12 Noon Fri 55 56 SW 5 11 5643 5643 2473 White 10
1 PM Fri 57 58 SW 5 10 6078 5860 2690 White 12
2 PM Fri 58 59 NNW 5 11 6294 5876 2706 White 13
3 PM Fri 59 59 WSW 11 19 6294 5876 2706 White 13
4 PM Fri 58 57 WSW 13 23 5860 5844 2674 White 11
5 PM Fri 58 56 WSW 17 27 5643 5643 2473 White 10
6 PM Fri 58 56 W 12 21 5643 5643 2473 White 10
7 PM Fri 56 54 N 9 16 5209 5209 2039 White 8
8 PM Fri 53 51 NNE 6 12 4550 4079 909 White 5
9 PM Fri 52 50 NE 5 11 4329 3692 522 White 4
10 PM Fri 51 49 E 5 12 4106 3281 111 White 3
11 PM Fri 50 48 ESE 6 12 3882 3170 0 White 2
12 Midnight Sat 49 47 ESE 6 12 3659 3170 0 White 1
1 AM Sat 49 47 ESE 5 11 3659 3170 0 White 1
2 AM Sat 48 46 ESE 5 11 3287 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 46 44 ESE 5 11 2566 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 46 44 ESE 5 11 2566 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 46 44 ESE 5 11 2566 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 46 44 SE 5 11 2566 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 47 45 SSE 5 11 2835 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 49 48 S 5 11 3882 3170 0 White 2
9 AM Sat 51 51 S 5 11 4550 4079 909 White 5
10 AM Sat 53 55 SW 6 12 5427 5427 2257 White 9
11 AM Sat 56 60 WSW 6 13 6510 5892 2722 White 14
12 Noon Sat 59 64 WSW 8 14 6839 6758 3588 Blue 18
1 PM Sat 62 67 W 9 16 7112 6836 3666 Blue 21
2 PM Sat 64 68 W 10 17 7261 6871 3701 Blue 22
3 PM Sat 66 69 W 11 18 7790 6944 3774 Blue 23
4 PM Sat 67 68 W 11 19 7261 6871 3701 Blue 22
5 PM Sat 66 65 W 11 19 6879 6784 3614 Blue 19
6 PM Sat 64 62 W 10 17 6788 6407 3237 Blue 16
7 PM Sat 61 59 W 9 16 6294 5876 2706 White 13
8 PM Sat 58 56 W 6 12 5643 5643 2473 White 10
9 PM Sat 55 53 WSW 4 10 4992 4839 1669 White 7
10 PM Sat 54 52 S 3 8 4773 4462 1292 White 6
11 PM Sat 52 50 SSE 2 5 4329 3692 522 White 4
12 Midnight Sun 51 49 S 1 5 4106 3281 111 White 3
1 AM Sun 51 49 S 1 5 4106 3281 111 White 3
2 AM Sun 50 48 S 1 5 3882 3170 0 White 2
3 AM Sun 50 48 S 2 5 3882 3170 0 White 2
4 AM Sun 49 47 SSE 2 6 3659 3170 0 White 1
5 AM Sun 50 48 SE 2 6 3882 3170 0 White 2
6 AM Sun 50 48 SSE 2 6 3882 3170 0 White 2
7 AM Sun 52 50 S 3 8 4329 3692 522 White 4
8 AM Sun 54 53 SSW 3 8 4992 4839 1669 White 7
9 AM Sun 57 58 SSW 4 9 6078 5860 2690 White 12
10 AM Sun 61 64 SW 4 10 6839 6758 3588 Blue 18
11 AM Sun 64 68 SW 5 11 7261 6871 3701 Blue 22
12 Noon Sun 67 72 WSW 6 12 8618 7704 4534 Blue 25
1 PM Sun 70 76 WSW 6 13 9961 8817 5647 White 29
2 PM Sun 71 76 WSW 8 14 9961 8817 5647 White 29
3 PM Sun 73 76 WSW 10 17 9961 8817 5647 White 29
4 PM Sun 74 75 W 12 20 9743 8571 5401 White 28
5 PM Sun 73 72 W 12 21 8618 7704 4534 Blue 25
6 PM Sun 70 68 W 11 19 7261 6871 3701 Blue 22
7 PM Sun 66 64 W 9 16 6839 6758 3588 Blue 18
8 PM Sun 63 61 W 5 11 6726 6069 2899 White 15
9 PM Sun 60 58 WNW 4 9 6078 5860 2690 White 12
10 PM Sun 59 57 NNW 2 6 5860 5844 2674 White 11
11 PM Sun 57 55 N 2 5 5427 5427 2257 White 9
12 Midnight Mon 56 54 N 1 5 5209 5209 2039 White 8
1 AM Mon 56 54 NW 2 5 5209 5209 2039 White 8
2 AM Mon 55 53 NW 2 6 4992 4839 1669 White 7
3 AM Mon 55 53 W 2 5 4992 4839 1669 White 7
4 AM Mon 54 52 SW 2 5 4773 4462 1292 White 6
5 AM Mon 54 52 S 2 5 4773 4462 1292 White 6
6 AM Mon 55 53 S 2 5 4992 4839 1669 White 7
7 AM Mon 56 54 S 2 5 5209 5209 2039 White 8
8 AM Mon 58 57 SSW 4 9 5860 5844 2674 White 11
9 AM Mon 61 62 SSW 4 9 6788 6407 3237 Blue 16
10 AM Mon 64 67 SSW 4 9 7112 6836 3666 Blue 21
11 AM Mon 68 72 SW 6 12 8618 7704 4534 Blue 25
12 Noon Mon 71 76 SW 6 12 9961 8817 5647 White 29
1 PM Mon 73 79 SW 6 12 10587 10266 7096 White 32
2 PM Mon 74 79 WSW 9 16 10587 10266 7096 White 32
3 PM Mon 76 79 WSW 9 16 10587 10266 7096 White 32
4 PM Mon 75 76 WSW 9 16 9961 8817 5647 White 29
5 PM Mon 76 75 W 10 18 9743 8571 5401 White 28
6 PM Mon 74 72 W 10 18 8618 7704 4534 Blue 25
7 PM Mon 71 69 W 10 18 7790 6944 3774 Blue 23
8 PM Mon 68 66 W 8 13 6964 6810 3640 Blue 20
9 PM Mon 65 63 W 8 13 6814 6684 3514 Blue 17
10 PM Mon 62 60 W 8 13 6510 5892 2722 White 14
11 PM Mon 60 58 W 4 10 6078 5860 2690 White 12
12 Midnight Tue 59 57 W 4 10 5860 5844 2674 White 11
1 AM Tue 58 56 W 4 10 5643 5643 2473 White 10
2 AM Tue 57 55 NW 3 9 5427 5427 2257 White 9
3 AM Tue 57 55 NW 3 9 5427 5427 2257 White 9
4 AM Tue 56 54 NW 3 9 5209 5209 2039 White 8
5 AM Tue 56 54 S 3 8 5209 5209 2039 White 8
6 AM Tue 57 55 S 3 8 5427 5427 2257 White 9
7 AM Tue 59 57 S 3 8 5860 5844 2674 White 11
8 AM Tue 61 60 WSW 4 9 6510 5892 2722 White 14
9 AM Tue 64 65 WSW 4 9 6879 6784 3614 Blue 19
10 AM Tue 68 71 WSW 4 9 8368 7240 4070 Blue 24
11 AM Tue 71 75 WSW 8 13 9743 8571 5401 White 28
12 Noon Tue 74 79 WSW 8 13 10587 10266 7096 White 32
1 PM Tue 76 81 WSW 8 13 11004 10588 7418 White 34
2 PM Tue 77 81 WSW 11 19 11004 10588 7418 White 34
3 PM Tue 77 80 WSW 11 19 10796 10462 7292 White 33
4 PM Tue 77 78 WSW 11 19 10380 9306 6136 White 31
5 PM Tue 78 77 W 11 19 10172 9062 5892 White 30
6 PM Tue 75 73 W 11 19 8866 8072 4902 Blue 26
7 PM Tue 72 70 W 11 19 8116 7092 3922 Blue 23
8 PM Tue 69 67 W 8 14 7112 6836 3666 Blue 21
9 PM Tue 66 64 W 8 14 6839 6758 3588 Blue 18
10 PM Tue 62 60 W 8 14 6510 5892 2722 White 14
11 PM Tue 60 58 WSW 4 10 6078 5860 2690 White 12
12 Midnight Wed 58 56 WSW 4 10 5643 5643 2473 White 10
1 AM Wed 58 56 WSW 4 10 5643 5643 2473 White 10
2 AM Wed 57 55 WSW 3 9 5427 5427 2257 White 9
3 AM Wed 57 55 WSW 3 9 5427 5427 2257 White 9
4 AM Wed 56 54 WSW 3 9 5209 5209 2039 White 8
5 AM Wed 56 54 WSW 4 9 5209 5209 2039 White 8
6 AM Wed 57 55 WSW 4 9 5427 5427 2257 White 9
7 AM Wed 58 56 WSW 4 9 5643 5643 2473 White 10
8 AM Wed 60 59 WSW 5 10 6294 5876 2706 White 13
9 AM Wed 63 63 WSW 5 10 6814 6684 3514 Blue 17
10 AM Wed 67 69 WSW 5 10 7790 6944 3774 Blue 23
11 AM Wed 70 75 WSW 8 14 9743 8571 5401 White 28
12 Noon Wed 73 79 WSW 8 14 10587 10266 7096 White 32
1 PM Wed 75 81 WSW 8 14 11004 10588 7418 White 34
2 PM Wed 77 82 WSW 10 18 11211 10715 7545 White 35
3 PM Wed 77 80 WSW 10 18 10796 10462 7292 White 33
4 PM Wed 77 79 WSW 10 18 10587 10266 7096 White 32
5 PM Wed 78 77 W 11 19 10172 9062 5892 White 30
6 PM Wed 75 73 W 11 19 8866 8072 4902 Blue 26
7 PM Wed 72 70 W 11 19 8116 7092 3922 Blue 23
8 PM Wed 69 67 W 8 14 7112 6836 3666 Blue 21
9 PM Wed 66 64 W 8 14 6839 6758 3588 Blue 18
10 PM Wed 63 61 W 8 14 6726 6069 2899 White 15

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst