Detailed Predictions for: Mentone
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.11893, -117.11256, 3170
LZ Altitude (f): 1900
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

21 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 72 70 ENE 4 10 2569 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 71 69 ENE 5 11 2569 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 71 69 NE 5 12 2569 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 70 68 NE 5 11 2569 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 70 68 NE 5 11 2569 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 70 68 ENE 5 10 2569 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 71 69 ENE 5 11 2569 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 71 69 ENE 5 10 2569 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 73 71 E 3 8 2569 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 79 78 E 2 6 3250 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 81 82 SSE 3 9 4225 3381 211 Blue 3
11 AM Tue 84 87 WSW 4 9 8124 5904 2734 Blue 7
12 Noon Tue 87 91 W 5 10 9251 8612 5442 Blue 11
1 PM Tue 90 94 W 5 11 9756 9211 6041 Blue 14
2 PM Tue 91 95 WSW 4 10 9880 9410 6240 Blue 15
3 PM Tue 92 94 WSW 8 13 9756 9211 6041 Blue 14
4 PM Tue 92 93 WSW 6 13 9632 9012 5842 Blue 13
5 PM Tue 91 90 W 12 20 9051 8017 4847 Blue 10
6 PM Tue 88 86 WNW 8 14 7448 5109 1939 Blue 6
7 PM Tue 83 81 N 4 9 3919 3249 79 Blue 2
8 PM Tue 78 76 NNE 2 5 2984 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 76 74 NNE 1 5 2718 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 74 72 NNE 1 5 2569 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 73 71 NNE 2 6 2569 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 73 71 NNE 2 6 2569 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 71 69 NNE 2 6 2569 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 71 69 NNE 3 6 2569 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 71 69 NNE 3 8 2569 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 71 69 NNE 3 8 2569 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 71 69 NE 3 8 2569 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 69 67 NE 3 8 2569 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 69 67 NE 2 6 2569 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 73 71 NE 2 5 2569 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 76 75 N 2 6 2851 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 78 79 W 3 8 3383 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 82 85 WSW 4 10 6735 4213 1043 Blue 6
12 Noon Wed 86 90 WSW 5 12 9051 8017 4847 Blue 10
1 PM Wed 89 93 WSW 8 14 9632 9012 5842 Blue 13
2 PM Wed 91 94 W 9 16 9756 9211 6041 Blue 14
3 PM Wed 92 94 W 11 19 9756 9211 6041 Blue 14
4 PM Wed 91 91 W 12 20 9251 8612 5442 Blue 11
5 PM Wed 92 91 W 11 20 9251 8612 5442 Blue 11
6 PM Wed 88 86 W 9 16 7448 5109 1939 Blue 6
7 PM Wed 84 82 NNW 5 10 4225 3381 211 Blue 3
8 PM Wed 78 76 N 2 6 2984 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 74 72 NNE 1 5 2569 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 71 69 ENE 2 6 2569 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 70 68 E 2 6 2569 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 70 68 E 2 6 2569 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 68 66 E 2 5 2569 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 67 65 E 2 5 2569 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 66 64 E 2 5 2569 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 66 64 ENE 2 5 2569 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 67 65 ENE 2 6 2569 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 67 65 NNE 1 5 2569 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 67 65 NW 1 5 2569 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 71 69 W 1 5 2569 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 73 72 W 2 6 2569 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 75 76 WSW 3 9 2984 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 79 81 WSW 5 11 3919 3249 79 Blue 2
12 Noon Thu 82 85 WSW 6 12 6735 4213 1043 Blue 6
1 PM Thu 85 88 WSW 8 14 8648 6649 3479 Blue 8
2 PM Thu 87 89 W 9 16 8850 7351 4181 Blue 9
3 PM Thu 88 89 W 10 17 8850 7351 4181 Blue 9
4 PM Thu 87 87 W 10 17 8124 5904 2734 Blue 7
5 PM Thu 88 87 W 9 16 8124 5904 2734 Blue 7
6 PM Thu 85 83 W 6 13 5166 3604 434 Blue 4
7 PM Thu 81 79 WNW 4 10 3383 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 75 73 WNW 2 6 2585 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 72 70 NNW 1 5 2569 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 69 67 NNE 1 5 2569 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 68 66 ENE 1 5 2569 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 68 66 E 1 4 2569 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 66 64 E 1 5 2569 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 65 63 ESE 2 5 2569 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 64 62 ESE 2 5 2569 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 64 62 E 2 5 2569 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 65 63 E 2 4 2569 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 65 63 E 2 4 2569 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 65 63 E 2 4 2569 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 69 67 W 1 4 2569 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 71 70 W 1 4 2569 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 73 74 W 1 4 2718 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 77 79 WNW 4 10 3383 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 80 82 WNW 4 10 4225 3381 211 Blue 3
1 PM Fri 83 86 WNW 4 10 7448 5109 1939 Blue 6
2 PM Fri 85 87 W 6 13 8124 5904 2734 Blue 7
3 PM Fri 86 87 W 6 13 8124 5904 2734 Blue 7
4 PM Fri 85 85 W 6 13 6735 4213 1043 Blue 6
5 PM Fri 86 84 W 8 12 5977 3909 739 Blue 5
6 PM Fri 83 81 W 8 12 3919 3249 79 Blue 2
7 PM Fri 79 77 W 8 12 3117 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 74 72 W 3 6 2569 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 70 68 W 3 6 2569 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 68 66 W 3 6 2569 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 67 65 NW 1 3 2569 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 67 65 NW 1 3 2569 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 65 63 NW 1 3 2569 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 64 62 SW 1 3 2569 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 63 61 SW 1 3 2569 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 63 61 SW 1 3 2569 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 64 62 ENE 1 4 2569 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 64 62 ENE 1 4 2569 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 64 62 ENE 1 4 2569 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 68 66 SSW 1 4 2569 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 70 69 SSW 1 4 2569 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 72 72 SSW 1 4 2569 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 75 76 WSW 5 9 2984 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 79 81 WSW 5 9 3919 3249 79 Blue 2
1 PM Sat 81 83 WSW 5 9 5166 3604 434 Blue 4
2 PM Sat 83 85 W 6 11 6735 4213 1043 Blue 6
3 PM Sat 84 85 W 6 11 6735 4213 1043 Blue 6
4 PM Sat 83 83 W 6 11 5166 3604 434 Blue 4
5 PM Sat 84 82 N 8 11 4225 3381 211 Blue 3
6 PM Sat 81 79 N 8 11 3383 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 77 75 N 8 11 2851 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 72 70 N 4 6 2569 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 68 66 N 4 6 2569 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 66 64 N 4 6 2569 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 65 63 WNW 2 5 2569 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 65 63 WNW 2 5 2569 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 63 61 WNW 2 5 2569 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 62 60 WNW 1 4 2569 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 61 59 WNW 1 4 2569 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 61 59 WNW 1 4 2569 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 62 60 NNW 1 4 2569 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 62 60 NNW 1 4 2569 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 62 60 NNW 1 4 2569 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 66 64 WSW 2 4 2569 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 68 67 WSW 2 4 2569 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 70 70 WSW 2 4 2569 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 74 75 WSW 4 9 2851 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 77 79 WSW 4 9 3383 3170 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 80 82 WSW 4 9 4225 3381 211 Blue 3
2 PM Sun 82 84 WSW 6 12 5977 3909 739 Blue 5
3 PM Sun 83 84 WSW 6 12 5977 3909 739 Blue 5
4 PM Sun 82 82 WSW 6 12 4225 3381 211 Blue 3
5 PM Sun 82 81 W 8 11 3919 3249 79 Blue 2
6 PM Sun 80 78 W 8 11 3250 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 76 74 W 8 11 2718 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 71 69 W 3 6 2569 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 67 65 W 3 6 2569 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 65 63 W 3 6 2569 3170 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst