Detailed Predictions for: Ord
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.403, -117.183, 4753
LZ Altitude (f): 1614
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

21 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 72 72 E 14 24 3445 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 70 70 E 14 23 3445 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 68 68 E 11 19 3445 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 67 67 E 9 16 3445 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 66 66 E 8 13 3445 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 64 64 E 6 13 3445 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 62 62 E 5 11 3445 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 61 61 E 4 10 3445 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 62 62 NE 3 9 3445 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 67 68 NE 4 10 3445 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 72 75 NE 5 11 4125 4753 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 77 82 NE 6 12 8818 7223 2470 Blue 6
12 Noon Tue 80 86 NE 8 13 9621 8991 4238 Blue 10
1 PM Tue 82 88 NE 8 13 9873 9396 4643 Blue 12
2 PM Tue 84 90 NE 6 13 10218 9725 4972 Blue 14
3 PM Tue 85 89 NE 6 12 9998 9597 4844 Blue 13
4 PM Tue 85 88 NE 6 13 9873 9396 4643 Blue 12
5 PM Tue 84 85 NE 6 12 9429 8788 4035 Blue 9
6 PM Tue 83 83 E 8 14 9022 7912 3159 Blue 7
7 PM Tue 81 81 SE 9 16 8614 6495 1742 Blue 5
8 PM Tue 80 80 SSE 9 16 7993 5721 968 Blue 4
9 PM Tue 79 79 S 9 16 7293 4753 0 Blue 3
10 PM Tue 78 78 S 9 16 6552 4753 0 Blue 2
11 PM Tue 75 75 SSW 8 14 4125 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 72 72 SSW 8 14 3445 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 71 71 SSW 6 13 3445 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 69 69 SSW 6 12 3445 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 68 68 SSW 5 11 3445 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 68 68 SSW 5 11 3445 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 66 66 SSW 4 10 3445 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 64 64 S 4 9 3445 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 63 63 S 3 8 3445 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 66 66 S 3 8 3445 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 69 70 SSW 3 8 3445 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 74 77 WNW 4 9 5761 4753 0 Blue 1
11 AM Wed 81 86 NNW 5 11 9621 8991 4238 Blue 10
12 Noon Wed 84 90 NW 6 12 10218 9725 4972 Blue 14
1 PM Wed 85 91 WNW 8 13 10563 9850 5097 Blue 15
2 PM Wed 86 91 WNW 9 14 10563 9850 5097 Blue 15
3 PM Wed 85 89 W 10 17 9998 9597 4844 Blue 13
4 PM Wed 86 88 SW 11 19 9873 9396 4643 Blue 12
5 PM Wed 84 85 SSW 12 20 9429 8788 4035 Blue 9
6 PM Wed 84 84 SSW 13 21 9226 8568 3815 Blue 8
7 PM Wed 83 83 S 13 23 9022 7912 3159 Blue 7
8 PM Wed 82 82 S 13 23 8818 7223 2470 Blue 6
9 PM Wed 81 81 SSW 12 20 8614 6495 1742 Blue 5
10 PM Wed 80 80 SW 10 17 7993 5721 968 Blue 4
11 PM Wed 78 78 SW 8 14 6552 4753 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Thu 76 76 SW 8 13 4682 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 74 74 SW 6 13 3812 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 72 72 SW 6 13 3445 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 70 70 SW 6 13 3445 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 69 69 SW 6 12 3445 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 68 68 SW 6 12 3445 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 66 66 SW 6 12 3445 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 65 65 SW 6 12 3445 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 68 68 SW 6 13 3445 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 70 71 WSW 8 14 3445 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 74 77 W 9 17 5761 4753 0 Blue 1
11 AM Thu 80 83 W 10 18 9022 7912 3159 Blue 7
12 Noon Thu 82 86 W 10 18 9621 8991 4238 Blue 10
1 PM Thu 83 87 W 10 18 9747 9194 4441 Blue 11
2 PM Thu 84 88 W 10 18 9873 9396 4643 Blue 12
3 PM Thu 83 86 WSW 12 20 9621 8991 4238 Blue 10
4 PM Thu 84 86 SSW 13 23 9621 8991 4238 Blue 10
5 PM Thu 82 83 S 14 24 9022 7912 3159 Blue 7
6 PM Thu 82 82 S 16 25 8818 7223 2470 Blue 6
7 PM Thu 81 81 S 16 25 8614 6495 1742 Blue 5
8 PM Thu 80 80 S 14 25 7993 5721 968 Blue 4
9 PM Thu 79 79 S 14 24 7293 4753 0 Blue 3
10 PM Thu 78 78 S 13 21 6552 4753 0 Blue 2
11 PM Thu 76 76 S 11 19 4682 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 74 74 SSE 10 18 3812 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 72 72 ESE 9 16 3445 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 70 70 E 8 13 3445 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 68 68 E 6 12 3445 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 67 67 ENE 5 11 3445 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 66 66 ENE 4 10 3445 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 64 64 ENE 4 10 3445 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 63 63 ENE 4 10 3445 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 66 66 NNE 4 9 3445 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 68 69 NNE 4 9 3445 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 72 75 NNE 4 9 4125 4753 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 78 81 S 6 18 8614 6495 1742 Blue 5
12 Noon Fri 81 85 S 6 18 9429 8788 4035 Blue 9
1 PM Fri 82 86 S 6 18 9621 8991 4238 Blue 10
2 PM Fri 83 87 E 8 18 9747 9194 4441 Blue 11
3 PM Fri 82 85 E 8 18 9429 8788 4035 Blue 9
4 PM Fri 82 84 E 8 18 9226 8568 3815 Blue 8
5 PM Fri 81 81 SSW 12 19 8614 6495 1742 Blue 5
6 PM Fri 81 81 SSW 12 19 8614 6495 1742 Blue 5
7 PM Fri 80 80 SSW 12 19 7993 5721 968 Blue 4
8 PM Fri 79 79 S 13 16 7293 4753 0 Blue 3
9 PM Fri 78 78 S 13 16 6552 4753 0 Blue 2
10 PM Fri 77 77 S 13 16 5761 4753 0 Blue 1
11 PM Fri 75 75 S 9 13 4125 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 74 74 S 9 13 3812 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 71 71 S 9 13 3445 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 70 70 SW 6 11 3445 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 68 68 SW 6 11 3445 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 67 67 SW 6 11 3445 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 66 66 S 4 10 3445 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 64 64 S 4 10 3445 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 63 63 S 4 10 3445 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 66 66 ENE 5 8 3445 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 68 69 ENE 5 8 3445 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 71 73 ENE 5 8 3498 4753 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 76 79 NNE 6 14 7293 4753 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Sat 78 82 NNE 6 14 8818 7223 2470 Blue 6
1 PM Sat 79 83 NNE 6 14 9022 7912 3159 Blue 7
2 PM Sat 80 84 SSW 11 18 9226 8568 3815 Blue 8
3 PM Sat 79 82 SSW 11 18 8818 7223 2470 Blue 6
4 PM Sat 80 82 SSW 11 18 8818 7223 2470 Blue 6
5 PM Sat 78 78 SSW 13 18 6552 4753 0 Blue 2
6 PM Sat 78 78 SSW 13 18 6552 4753 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sat 77 77 SSW 13 18 5761 4753 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sat 76 76 S 11 17 4682 4753 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 75 75 S 11 17 4125 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 75 75 S 11 17 4125 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 73 73 WNW 6 13 3498 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 71 71 WNW 6 13 3445 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 69 69 WNW 6 13 3445 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 67 67 SW 5 11 3445 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 66 66 SW 5 11 3445 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 65 65 SW 5 11 3445 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 64 64 NW 5 11 3445 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 62 62 NW 5 11 3445 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 61 61 NW 5 11 3445 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 64 64 ENE 5 10 3445 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 66 67 ENE 5 10 3445 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 70 72 ENE 5 10 3445 4753 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 75 78 NNE 8 17 6552 4753 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Sun 77 81 NNE 8 17 8614 6495 1742 Blue 5
1 PM Sun 78 82 NNE 8 17 8818 7223 2470 Blue 6
2 PM Sun 79 83 NNE 10 21 9022 7912 3159 Blue 7
3 PM Sun 78 81 NNE 10 21 8614 6495 1742 Blue 5
4 PM Sun 78 80 NNE 10 21 7993 5721 968 Blue 4
5 PM Sun 77 78 SW 11 19 6552 4753 0 Blue 2
6 PM Sun 77 77 SW 11 19 5761 4753 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sun 76 76 SW 11 19 4682 4753 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 75 75 SSW 11 19 4125 4753 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 74 74 SSW 11 19 3812 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 74 74 SSW 11 19 3812 4753 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst