Detailed Predictions for: Ord
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.403, -117.183, 4753
LZ Altitude (f): 1614
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

23 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 74 74 SSW 12 21 3765 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 73 73 SSW 11 19 3602 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 72 72 SSW 11 18 3602 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 70 70 S 11 20 3602 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 69 69 S 12 21 3602 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 70 70 SSE 13 23 3602 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 73 73 S 11 19 3602 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 78 78 S 6 12 5703 4753 0 Blue 1
8 AM Wed 81 81 SSW 4 9 10110 5592 839 Blue 4
9 AM Wed 80 81 S 10 17 10110 5592 839 Blue 4
10 AM Wed 77 79 S 11 19 7593 4753 0 Blue 2
11 AM Wed 74 77 S 13 21 4545 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 75 79 S 14 25 7593 4753 0 Blue 2
1 PM Wed 77 81 S 17 27 10110 5592 839 Blue 4
2 PM Wed 80 84 S 17 27 13693 9913 5160 Blue 7
3 PM Wed 82 85 S 18 29 14149 11221 6468 Blue 8
4 PM Wed 82 84 S 19 31 13693 9913 5160 Blue 7
5 PM Wed 82 84 S 19 29 13693 9913 5160 Blue 7
6 PM Wed 80 81 S 20 31 10110 5592 839 Blue 4
7 PM Wed 78 78 S 20 32 5703 4753 0 Blue 1
8 PM Wed 76 76 S 19 31 4247 4753 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 74 74 S 17 27 3765 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 73 73 S 14 24 3602 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 72 72 SSE 11 19 3602 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 70 70 S 10 17 3602 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 67 67 S 8 14 3602 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 64 64 S 6 13 3602 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 62 62 S 6 13 3602 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 60 60 SSW 8 13 3602 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 60 60 SSW 8 14 3602 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 60 60 SSW 5 11 3602 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 62 62 SW 4 9 3602 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 65 66 SW 3 9 3602 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 70 73 SW 5 11 3602 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 75 80 SSW 10 17 8969 4753 0 Blue 3
11 AM Thu 80 87 SSW 13 21 15030 13543 8790 Blue 10
12 Noon Thu 82 90 SSW 16 25 16394 14876 10123 Blue 13
1 PM Thu 81 90 SSW 17 27 16394 14876 10123 Blue 13
2 PM Thu 82 90 SSW 18 29 16394 14876 10123 Blue 13
3 PM Thu 82 89 SSW 19 31 15875 14444 9691 Blue 12
4 PM Thu 82 87 SSW 19 31 15030 13543 8790 Blue 10
5 PM Thu 81 84 SSW 19 31 13693 9913 5160 Blue 7
6 PM Thu 79 80 S 18 29 8969 4753 0 Blue 3
7 PM Thu 76 76 S 17 27 4247 4753 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 74 74 S 16 25 3765 4753 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 72 72 SSW 14 24 3602 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 71 71 SSW 12 21 3602 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 70 70 SW 11 19 3602 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 68 68 SW 9 16 3602 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 66 66 WSW 6 13 3602 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 63 63 W 5 11 3602 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 61 61 W 5 11 3602 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 60 60 W 5 11 3602 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 60 60 W 6 12 3602 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 62 62 W 5 11 3602 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 64 64 W 5 10 3602 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 68 69 W 5 10 3602 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 72 75 W 5 12 4006 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 76 81 WNW 8 14 10110 5592 839 Blue 4
11 AM Fri 80 87 WNW 9 17 15030 13543 8790 Blue 10
12 Noon Fri 83 91 W 11 19 16910 15299 10546 Blue 14
1 PM Fri 85 94 WSW 12 21 17728 16693 11940 White 17
2 PM Fri 87 95 SW 14 24 17930 17190 12437 White 18
3 PM Fri 86 93 SW 16 25 17527 16180 11427 White 16
4 PM Fri 86 91 SSW 16 26 16910 15299 10546 Blue 14
5 PM Fri 85 88 SSW 16 26 15457 14002 9249 Blue 11
6 PM Fri 83 84 SSW 16 25 13693 9913 5160 Blue 7
7 PM Fri 80 80 SSW 14 24 8969 4753 0 Blue 3
8 PM Fri 78 78 SSW 13 21 5703 4753 0 Blue 1
9 PM Fri 76 76 SSW 12 20 4247 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 74 74 SSW 11 18 3765 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 72 72 SSW 9 17 3602 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 70 70 SW 9 16 3602 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 68 68 W 8 14 3602 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 66 66 W 6 13 3602 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 64 64 W 5 12 3602 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 62 62 W 5 10 3602 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 62 62 W 4 10 3602 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 64 64 W 4 10 3602 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 66 66 W 4 10 3602 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 70 71 NNW 3 8 3602 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 73 76 NNW 3 8 4247 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 77 82 NNW 3 8 11548 7430 2677 Blue 5
11 AM Sat 81 89 NNE 8 14 15875 14444 9691 Blue 12
12 Noon Sat 85 94 NNE 8 14 17728 16693 11940 White 17
1 PM Sat 89 98 NNE 8 14 18533 18533 13780 White 21
2 PM Sat 92 100 NE 10 17 18934 18934 14181 White 23
3 PM Sat 93 100 NE 10 17 18934 18934 14181 White 23
4 PM Sat 92 97 NE 10 17 18333 18143 13390 White 20
5 PM Sat 92 95 SSW 11 20 17930 17190 12437 White 18
6 PM Sat 89 90 SSW 11 20 16394 14876 10123 Blue 13
7 PM Sat 86 86 SSW 11 20 14595 12484 7731 Blue 9
8 PM Sat 83 83 SSW 10 17 12799 8785 4032 Blue 6
9 PM Sat 81 81 SSW 10 17 10110 5592 839 Blue 4
10 PM Sat 80 80 SSW 10 17 8969 4753 0 Blue 3
11 PM Sat 79 79 WSW 9 17 7593 4753 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Sun 77 77 WSW 9 17 4545 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 76 76 WSW 9 17 4247 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 74 74 W 6 12 3765 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 72 72 W 6 12 3602 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 70 70 W 6 12 3602 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 69 69 WNW 4 10 3602 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 70 70 WNW 4 10 3602 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 72 72 WNW 4 10 3602 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 74 75 NNW 4 9 4006 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 77 80 NNW 4 9 8969 4753 0 Blue 3
10 AM Sun 81 86 NNW 4 9 14595 12484 7731 Blue 9
11 AM Sun 84 91 NNE 9 16 16910 15299 10546 Blue 14
12 Noon Sun 88 96 NNE 9 16 18131 17673 12920 White 19
1 PM Sun 91 99 NNE 9 16 18734 18734 13981 White 22
2 PM Sun 94 102 E 11 19 19329 19329 14576 White 25
3 PM Sun 97 103 E 11 19 19520 19520 14767 White 26
4 PM Sun 97 101 E 11 19 19134 19134 14381 White 24
5 PM Sun 98 100 NNE 10 18 18934 18934 14181 White 23
6 PM Sun 94 95 NNE 10 18 17930 17190 12437 White 18
7 PM Sun 89 89 NNE 10 18 15875 14444 9691 Blue 12
8 PM Sun 85 85 SSW 11 18 14149 11221 6468 Blue 8
9 PM Sun 82 82 SSW 11 18 11548 7430 2677 Blue 5
10 PM Sun 81 81 SSW 11 18 10110 5592 839 Blue 4
11 PM Sun 80 80 WSW 9 16 8969 4753 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Mon 80 80 WSW 9 16 8969 4753 0 Blue 3
1 AM Mon 78 78 WSW 9 16 5703 4753 0 Blue 1
2 AM Mon 76 76 W 6 12 4247 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 74 74 W 6 12 3765 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 73 73 W 6 12 3602 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 72 72 W 4 9 3602 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 72 72 W 4 9 3602 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 74 74 W 4 9 3765 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 78 79 N 5 10 7593 4753 0 Blue 2
9 AM Mon 84 87 N 5 10 15030 13543 8790 Blue 10
10 AM Mon 90 95 N 5 10 17930 17190 12437 White 18
11 AM Mon 95 102 WNW 6 12 19329 19329 14576 White 25
12 Noon Mon 97 105 WNW 6 12 19903 19903 15150 White 28
1 PM Mon 97 105 WNW 6 12 19903 19903 15150 White 28
2 PM Mon 97 104 SSW 12 20 19711 19711 14958 White 27
3 PM Mon 96 102 SSW 12 20 19329 19329 14576 White 25
4 PM Mon 94 98 SSW 12 20 18533 18533 13780 White 21
5 PM Mon 90 92 S 13 23 17325 15714 10961 White 15
6 PM Mon 87 88 S 13 23 15457 14002 9249 Blue 11
7 PM Mon 83 83 S 13 23 12799 8785 4032 Blue 6
8 PM Mon 81 81 SSW 14 23 10110 5592 839 Blue 4
9 PM Mon 81 81 SSW 14 23 10110 5592 839 Blue 4
10 PM Mon 82 82 SSW 14 23 11548 7430 2677 Blue 5

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst