Detailed Predictions for: Ord
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.403, -117.183, 4753
LZ Altitude (f): 1614
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 5 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Tue 48 48 E 3 8 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 46 46 E 3 8 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 45 45 ENE 3 8 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 45 45 ENE 3 9 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 43 43 ENE 4 10 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 44 44 ENE 4 10 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 43 43 ENE 4 9 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 42 42 E 3 9 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 44 44 ENE 3 8 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 50 51 ENE 4 10 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 53 55 NNE 6 12 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 59 61 NNE 6 13 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 60 63 NNE 6 13 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 62 64 NE 6 13 4102 4753 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 64 65 NE 8 14 4982 4753 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 63 63 NE 10 17 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 62 62 ENE 10 17 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 60 60 E 10 17 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 57 57 ESE 10 17 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 55 55 ESE 9 16 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 54 54 SE 8 13 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 52 52 SSE 5 11 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 51 51 SSE 4 9 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 51 51 SSE 3 8 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 50 50 S 3 8 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 49 49 S 3 8 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 48 48 S 3 8 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 48 48 S 3 8 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 46 46 S 3 9 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 46 46 S 5 10 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 44 44 S 6 12 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 44 44 S 8 13 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 46 46 SSW 5 11 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 51 52 WSW 3 8 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 57 59 W 3 8 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 61 63 W 6 12 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 63 65 SW 11 19 4982 4753 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 64 66 SSW 16 25 6358 4753 0 Blue 1
2 PM Wed 64 65 SSW 17 28 4982 4753 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 64 64 S 18 28 4102 4753 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 62 62 S 18 29 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 60 60 S 19 29 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 58 58 S 18 29 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 56 56 S 18 28 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 54 54 S 14 24 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 53 53 SSW 12 20 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 51 51 SSW 10 17 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 50 50 SSW 10 17 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 49 49 SSW 11 18 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 47 47 SSW 12 20 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 46 46 SSW 12 20 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 45 45 SSW 12 20 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 43 43 SSW 11 20 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 42 42 SSW 11 18 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 40 40 SSW 9 17 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 40 40 SSW 9 16 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 43 43 SW 8 14 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 47 48 W 9 16 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 50 51 W 10 17 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 53 55 W 12 20 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 54 56 W 16 25 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 55 57 W 18 28 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 56 57 W 19 29 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 55 55 W 19 29 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 53 53 W 18 28 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 52 52 W 16 26 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 50 50 SSW 13 23 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 48 48 S 11 19 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 46 46 SSW 11 18 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 45 45 SW 11 18 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 44 44 SW 11 19 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 43 43 SSW 11 19 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 42 42 S 12 20 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 40 40 SSE 12 20 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 39 39 SSE 11 19 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 38 38 SSE 11 18 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 36 36 SSE 10 17 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 35 35 SSE 10 17 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 33 33 SSE 10 17 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 34 34 SSE 4 10 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 36 36 SSE 4 10 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 40 41 SSE 4 10 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 43 45 NE 12 20 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 46 48 NE 12 20 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 48 50 NE 12 20 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 50 52 ENE 14 24 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 51 52 ENE 14 24 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 51 51 ENE 14 24 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 50 50 ENE 14 24 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 48 48 ENE 14 24 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 46 46 ENE 14 24 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 44 44 ENE 12 20 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 43 43 ENE 12 20 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 42 42 ENE 12 20 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 41 41 E 10 18 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 40 40 E 10 18 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 38 38 E 10 18 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 37 37 E 10 17 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 36 36 E 10 17 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 35 35 E 10 17 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 34 34 ENE 8 14 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 33 33 ENE 8 14 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 33 33 ENE 8 14 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 34 34 ENE 8 13 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 36 36 ENE 8 13 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 39 40 ENE 8 13 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 43 44 NE 10 17 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 46 48 NE 10 17 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 48 50 NE 10 17 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 50 52 NE 11 19 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 51 52 NE 11 19 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 52 52 NE 11 19 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 51 51 NNE 10 17 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 50 50 NNE 10 17 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 48 48 NNE 10 17 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 46 46 ENE 8 13 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 44 44 ENE 8 13 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 43 43 ENE 8 13 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 42 42 ENE 6 13 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 41 41 ENE 6 13 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 40 40 ENE 6 13 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 40 40 NE 5 11 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 39 39 NE 5 11 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 38 38 NE 5 11 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 37 37 NNE 5 10 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 36 36 NNE 5 10 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 35 35 NNE 5 10 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 36 36 NE 5 10 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 38 38 NE 5 10 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 42 43 NE 5 10 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 46 47 N 5 12 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 49 51 N 5 12 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 52 54 N 5 12 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 54 56 N 9 16 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 55 56 N 9 16 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 55 55 N 9 16 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 55 55 N 8 14 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 54 54 N 8 14 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 52 52 N 8 14 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 50 50 ENE 5 11 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 49 49 ENE 5 11 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 47 47 ENE 5 11 3730 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 46 46 E 6 13 3730 4753 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst