Detailed Predictions for: Ord
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.403, -117.183, 4753
LZ Altitude (f): 1614
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

19 JUN 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 59 59 S 4 9 4734 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 59 59 SSW 4 8 4734 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 58 58 S 3 8 4734 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 58 58 S 4 8 4734 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 57 57 S 3 7 4734 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 57 57 S 3 6 4734 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 60 60 SSW 2 5 4734 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 64 64 SSW 2 4 4747 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 68 70 SW 1 2 6260 5101 348 Blue 6
9 AM Wed 72 75 W 3 3 7731 7106 2353 Blue 11
10 AM Wed 75 80 W 3 4 10982 9369 4616 Blue 16
11 AM Wed 78 85 WSW 3 3 11981 11117 6364 Blue 21
12 Noon Wed 81 90 SW 4 5 13766 12894 8141 Blue 26
1 PM Wed 82 91 SSW 8 10 14081 13294 8541 Blue 27
2 PM Wed 83 91 SSW 13 15 14081 13294 8541 Blue 27
3 PM Wed 83 90 SSW 15 17 13766 12894 8141 Blue 26
4 PM Wed 83 88 S 14 16 13341 11919 7166 Blue 24
5 PM Wed 81 84 SSW 13 15 11712 11042 6289 Blue 20
6 PM Wed 78 79 SSW 12 14 10867 7848 3095 Blue 15
7 PM Wed 73 73 SSW 11 12 7327 6239 1486 Blue 9
8 PM Wed 69 69 SSW 8 16 5811 4953 200 Blue 5
9 PM Wed 66 66 S 7 16 4954 4753 0 Blue 2
10 PM Wed 64 64 S 6 14 4747 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 62 62 S 6 13 4734 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 62 62 S 6 13 4734 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 61 61 S 5 12 4734 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 61 61 S 5 10 4734 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 61 61 S 4 8 4734 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 60 60 S 3 7 4734 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 59 59 S 2 5 4734 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 63 63 SSW 1 3 4734 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 67 67 SW 1 2 5102 4753 0 Blue 3
8 AM Thu 71 73 WNW 1 1 7327 6239 1486 Blue 9
9 AM Thu 75 79 WNW 1 2 10867 7848 3095 Blue 15
10 AM Thu 78 84 WNW 1 1 11712 11042 6289 Blue 20
11 AM Thu 81 89 SW 1 1 13525 12185 7432 Blue 25
12 Noon Thu 84 93 SSW 3 4 15295 13696 8943 Blue 29
1 PM Thu 86 95 SSW 9 10 16413 14506 9753 Blue 31
2 PM Thu 87 95 SSW 14 17 16413 14506 9753 Blue 31
3 PM Thu 87 94 SSW 16 18 15865 13933 9180 Blue 30
4 PM Thu 87 92 SSW 15 18 14702 13464 8711 Blue 28
5 PM Thu 85 88 SSW 15 17 13341 11919 7166 Blue 24
6 PM Thu 83 84 SSW 14 16 11712 11042 6289 Blue 20
7 PM Thu 77 77 SSW 12 14 9529 7512 2759 Blue 13
8 PM Thu 72 72 SSW 8 17 7125 5796 1043 Blue 8
9 PM Thu 69 69 SSW 6 14 5811 4953 200 Blue 5
10 PM Thu 67 67 S 6 13 5102 4753 0 Blue 3
11 PM Thu 65 65 S 5 11 4833 4753 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Fri 64 64 S 5 11 4747 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 64 64 S 5 12 4747 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 63 63 S 5 11 4734 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 63 63 S 4 8 4734 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 62 62 SSE 2 6 4734 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 62 62 SE 2 4 4734 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 66 66 SSE 1 2 4954 4753 0 Blue 2
7 AM Fri 70 70 WSW 0 1 6260 5101 348 Blue 6
8 AM Fri 75 77 NW 2 3 9529 7512 2759 Blue 13
9 AM Fri 79 83 NW 3 3 11440 10967 6214 Blue 19
10 AM Fri 82 88 NW 2 2 13341 11919 7166 Blue 24
11 AM Fri 85 93 NW 0 1 15295 13696 8943 Blue 29
12 Noon Fri 88 97 SW 0 0 17008 15661 10908 Blue 33
1 PM Fri 91 100 S 3 4 19518 16940 12187 White 36
2 PM Fri 92 100 SSW 10 11 19518 16940 12187 White 36
3 PM Fri 93 100 SSW 15 17 19518 16940 12187 White 36
4 PM Fri 93 98 SSW 16 19 19126 16206 11453 White 34
5 PM Fri 92 95 SSW 15 18 16413 14506 9753 Blue 31
6 PM Fri 89 90 SSW 14 16 13766 12894 8141 Blue 26
7 PM Fri 84 84 S 11 14 11712 11042 6289 Blue 20
8 PM Fri 78 78 S 8 18 10535 7712 2959 Blue 14
9 PM Fri 75 75 S 6 13 7731 7106 2353 Blue 11
10 PM Fri 72 72 S 6 12 7125 5796 1043 Blue 8
11 PM Fri 71 71 S 5 11 6657 5345 592 Blue 7

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst