Detailed Predictions for: Otay Mesa
Launch Altitude (f): 1550
LZ Altitude (f): 600
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

18 NOV 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Mon 68 68 E 12 755 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 66 66 E 12 755 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 66 66 E 10 755 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 68 68 E 10 755 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 73 73 E 10 755 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 79 80 E 8 878 1550 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 85 87 N 5 3537 1550 0 Blue 3
11 AM Mon 88 90 NW 5 7143 3481 1931 Blue 6
12 Noon Mon 87 89 NW 6 6753 2812 1262 Blue 5
1 PM Mon 87 89 NW 9 6753 2812 1262 Blue 5
2 PM Mon 84 85 W 9 2111 1550 0 Blue 1
3 PM Mon 81 81 W 8 1046 1550 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 78 78 W 5 755 1550 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 74 74 W 2 755 1550 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 69 69 NW 2 755 1550 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 66 66 E 2 755 1550 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 63 63 N 2 755 1550 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 61 61 N 2 755 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 60 60 E 3 755 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 59 59 E 3 755 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 59 59 E 3 755 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 60 60 E 3 755 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 62 62 E 5 755 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 63 63 E 5 755 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 63 63 E 6 755 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 62 62 E 6 755 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 61 61 E 5 755 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 61 61 SE 5 755 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 65 65 SE 6 755 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 70 70 S 7 755 1550 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 71 71 S 7 755 1550 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 71 71 S 8 755 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 70 71 S 8 755 1550 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 68 68 S 8 755 1550 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 68 68 S 8 755 1550 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 68 68 S 8 755 1550 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 68 68 S 8 755 1550 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 67 67 S 8 755 1550 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 65 65 S 8 755 1550 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 64 64 S 8 755 1550 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 62 62 S 8 755 1550 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 62 62 S 8 755 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 61 61 S 8 755 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 60 60 S 8 755 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 60 60 S 8 755 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 59 59 S 8 755 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 59 59 SW 9 755 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 58 58 W 9 755 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 57 57 W 9 755 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 56 56 W 9 755 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 56 56 SW 8 755 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 56 56 S 8 755 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 57 57 S 8 755 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 58 58 SW 9 755 1550 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 59 59 SW 10 755 1550 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 60 60 SW 12 755 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 59 59 SW 12 755 1550 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 59 59 SW 12 755 1550 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 60 60 SW 12 755 1550 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 59 59 S 12 755 1550 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 58 58 S 12 755 1550 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 57 57 S 10 755 1550 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 55 55 SE 9 755 1550 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 53 53 SE 8 755 1550 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 52 52 SE 9 755 1550 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 52 52 SE 9 755 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 52 52 SE 9 755 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 53 53 SE 8 755 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 54 54 S 7 755 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 55 55 SW 6 755 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 55 55 SW 6 755 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 54 54 S 7 755 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 54 54 S 7 755 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 54 54 S 7 755 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 54 54 S 7 755 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 55 55 S 7 755 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 56 56 S 7 755 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 58 59 S 7 755 1550 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 59 61 SW 7 755 1550 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 60 62 SW 7 755 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 61 63 SW 7 755 1550 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 62 64 SW 8 755 1550 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 61 62 SW 8 755 1550 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 62 62 SW 8 755 1550 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 61 61 SW 7 755 1550 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 59 59 SW 7 755 1550 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 57 57 SW 7 755 1550 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 55 55 SE 2 755 1550 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 54 54 SE 2 755 1550 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 53 53 SE 2 755 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 53 53 E 6 755 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 52 52 E 6 755 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 52 52 E 6 755 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 52 52 E 6 755 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 52 52 E 6 755 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 52 52 E 6 755 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 51 51 E 6 755 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 50 50 E 6 755 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 50 50 E 6 755 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 51 51 E 7 755 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 55 55 E 7 755 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 59 60 E 7 755 1550 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 63 65 NE 2 755 1550 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 66 68 NE 2 755 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 66 68 NE 2 755 1550 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 67 69 N 5 755 1550 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 65 66 N 5 755 1550 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 63 63 N 5 755 1550 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 61 61 W 5 755 1550 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 59 59 W 5 755 1550 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 58 58 W 5 755 1550 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 57 57 NW 2 755 1550 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 56 56 NW 2 755 1550 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 56 56 NW 2 755 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 55 55 N 3 755 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 54 54 N 3 755 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 54 54 N 3 755 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 53 53 NE 3 755 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 53 53 NE 3 755 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 53 53 NE 3 755 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 52 52 NE 2 755 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 51 51 NE 2 755 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 50 50 NE 2 755 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 51 51 E 7 755 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 56 56 E 7 755 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 62 63 E 7 755 1550 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 67 69 N 3 755 1550 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 68 70 N 3 755 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 68 70 N 3 755 1550 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 66 68 W 3 755 1550 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 65 66 W 3 755 1550 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 64 64 W 3 755 1550 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 62 62 W 8 755 1550 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 60 60 W 8 755 1550 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 58 58 W 8 755 1550 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 55 55 N 6 755 1550 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 54 54 N 6 755 1550 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 52 52 N 6 755 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 52 52 N 5 755 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 51 51 N 5 755 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 51 51 N 5 755 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 51 51 N 3 755 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 51 51 N 3 755 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 51 51 N 3 755 1550 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst