Detailed Predictions for: Otay Mesa
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 32.5740107668, -116.89399273, 1550
LZ Altitude (f): 600
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

5 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 52 52 E 4 8 876 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 51 51 E 3 7 876 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 50 50 ENE 4 8 876 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 50 50 ENE 3 8 876 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 50 50 ENE 3 8 876 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 49 49 ENE 3 8 876 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 49 49 E 4 9 876 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 51 51 ENE 3 10 876 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 49 49 E 5 11 876 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 55 56 E 4 10 876 1550 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 65 67 E 2 4 876 1550 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 73 76 E 1 1 3297 2254 704 Blue 6
12 Noon Tue 82 85 ESE 0 0 8327 7479 5929 Blue 15
1 PM Tue 83 85 WNW 1 1 8327 7479 5929 Blue 15
2 PM Tue 78 79 WNW 2 2 4397 3286 1736 Blue 9
3 PM Tue 75 75 WNW 3 4 3099 1809 259 Blue 5
4 PM Tue 72 72 W 3 4 1814 1550 0 Blue 2
5 PM Tue 69 69 WSW 3 5 1265 1550 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 64 64 WSW 1 3 876 1550 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 63 63 SW 0 1 876 1550 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 60 60 WNW 0 1 876 1550 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 58 58 NW 0 0 876 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 57 57 NW 0 0 876 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 55 55 ENE 1 2 876 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 62 62 E 1 2 876 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 62 62 ENE 1 3 876 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 52 52 NNE 1 2 876 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 61 61 NE 1 3 876 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 60 60 ENE 2 4 876 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 52 52 ENE 1 3 876 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 60 60 E 2 4 876 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 60 60 ESE 1 3 876 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 52 52 NE 0 0 876 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 64 65 ENE 1 3 876 1550 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 69 71 WNW 1 1 1564 1550 0 Blue 1
11 AM Wed 70 73 W 1 1 2265 1550 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Wed 73 76 WSW 3 4 3297 2254 704 Blue 6
1 PM Wed 74 76 W 6 7 3297 2254 704 Blue 6
2 PM Wed 68 69 W 8 10 1265 1550 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 72 72 WNW 6 7 1814 1550 0 Blue 2
4 PM Wed 72 72 WNW 4 5 1814 1550 0 Blue 2
5 PM Wed 65 65 WNW 4 5 876 1550 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 66 66 WNW 3 5 876 1550 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 63 63 WNW 3 5 876 1550 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 56 56 NW 2 4 876 1550 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 61 61 WNW 2 4 876 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 60 60 WNW 2 4 876 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 55 55 WNW 2 4 876 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 58 58 WNW 2 4 876 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 58 58 WNW 2 4 876 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 54 54 WNW 0 1 876 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 57 57 W 0 0 876 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 56 56 SSW 0 0 876 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 52 52 SW 1 2 876 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 55 55 W 2 5 876 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 55 55 W 2 4 876 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 51 51 SW 1 3 876 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 58 58 SSW 2 3 876 1550 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 61 62 SW 3 4 876 1550 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 62 64 SW 4 4 876 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 63 65 SW 5 6 876 1550 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 64 66 SW 6 7 876 1550 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 64 65 SW 7 8 876 1550 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 65 65 SW 8 9 876 1550 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 63 63 SW 7 9 876 1550 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 58 58 SW 6 7 876 1550 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 57 57 SW 5 7 876 1550 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 56 56 SSW 4 6 876 1550 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 53 53 SW 3 5 876 1550 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 55 55 SSW 2 4 876 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 55 55 SW 2 3 876 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 50 50 S 1 3 876 1550 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst