Detailed Predictions for: Otay Mesa
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 32.5740107668, -116.89399273, 1550
LZ Altitude (f): 600
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

2 AUG 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Mon 70 70 NNW 5 12 1047 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 68 68 NNW 4 10 949 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 66 66 NNW 3 9 851 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 65 65 NNW 3 9 801 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 65 65 NNW 2 6 801 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 65 65 NNW 2 6 801 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 67 67 NNW 4 9 900 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 69 69 NNW 3 9 998 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 72 73 NW 4 10 1195 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 76 79 NW 6 12 1545 1550 0 Blue 6
10 AM Mon 81 86 NW 9 16 1847 1708 158 Blue 13
11 AM Mon 84 91 NW 10 18 2264 2005 455 Blue 18
12 Noon Mon 87 95 NW 12 20 3121 2517 967 Blue 22
1 PM Mon 88 97 NW 13 21 3617 2931 1381 Blue 24
2 PM Mon 88 96 WNW 13 21 3298 2754 1204 Blue 23
3 PM Mon 87 94 WNW 13 21 2943 2252 702 Blue 21
4 PM Mon 88 93 NW 13 23 2765 2166 616 Blue 20
5 PM Mon 86 88 NW 13 23 2008 1790 240 Blue 15
6 PM Mon 84 85 NW 12 21 1792 1667 117 Blue 12
7 PM Mon 81 81 NNW 12 20 1627 1550 0 Blue 8
8 PM Mon 78 78 NNW 11 18 1504 1550 0 Blue 5
9 PM Mon 77 77 NNW 10 17 1463 1550 0 Blue 4
10 PM Mon 75 75 NNW 9 16 1381 1550 0 Blue 2
11 PM Mon 74 74 NNW 8 13 1340 1550 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Tue 72 72 NNW 5 12 1146 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 70 70 NW 4 10 1047 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 68 68 NW 3 9 949 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 67 67 NNW 3 8 900 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 66 66 NNW 3 6 851 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 66 66 NNW 3 6 851 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 68 68 NNW 2 6 949 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 70 70 NW 3 8 1047 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 73 74 WNW 3 9 1340 1550 0 Blue 1
9 AM Tue 77 80 WNW 5 11 1586 1550 0 Blue 7
10 AM Tue 81 86 WNW 8 13 1847 1708 158 Blue 13
11 AM Tue 84 91 WNW 9 16 2264 2005 455 Blue 18
12 Noon Tue 86 94 WNW 10 18 2943 2252 702 Blue 21
1 PM Tue 87 96 WNW 11 19 3298 2754 1204 Blue 23
2 PM Tue 86 94 WNW 12 20 2943 2252 702 Blue 21
3 PM Tue 87 94 NW 12 21 2943 2252 702 Blue 21
4 PM Tue 86 91 NW 12 20 2264 2005 455 Blue 18
5 PM Tue 84 87 NW 12 20 1928 1749 199 Blue 14
6 PM Tue 81 82 NW 11 19 1668 1550 0 Blue 9
7 PM Tue 78 78 NW 10 18 1504 1550 0 Blue 5
8 PM Tue 75 75 NW 9 16 1381 1550 0 Blue 2
9 PM Tue 73 73 NW 6 13 1195 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 71 71 NW 5 10 1096 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 70 70 NW 3 8 1047 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 68 68 NW 2 6 949 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 67 67 NW 2 6 900 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 66 66 NW 2 6 851 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 65 65 NW 2 6 801 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 65 65 NNW 2 6 801 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 65 65 N 2 6 801 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 66 66 NNW 2 6 851 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 68 68 NW 2 6 949 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 71 72 WNW 3 8 1146 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 74 77 WNW 4 9 1463 1550 0 Blue 4
10 AM Wed 77 82 WNW 5 11 1668 1550 0 Blue 9
11 AM Wed 80 87 WNW 8 13 1928 1749 199 Blue 14
12 Noon Wed 82 90 WNW 9 16 2169 1925 375 Blue 17
1 PM Wed 83 92 WNW 9 16 2532 2085 535 Blue 19
2 PM Wed 82 90 WNW 10 17 2169 1925 375 Blue 17
3 PM Wed 83 90 WNW 10 18 2169 1925 375 Blue 17
4 PM Wed 82 87 WNW 10 18 1928 1749 199 Blue 14
5 PM Wed 81 84 WNW 10 18 1750 1626 76 Blue 11
6 PM Wed 78 79 NW 10 17 1545 1550 0 Blue 6
7 PM Wed 76 76 NW 9 14 1422 1550 0 Blue 3
8 PM Wed 73 73 NW 6 13 1195 1550 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 71 71 NW 5 11 1096 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 70 70 WNW 4 10 1047 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 69 69 WNW 3 8 998 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 68 68 W 2 6 949 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 67 67 W 2 6 900 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 66 66 WSW 2 6 851 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 66 66 SW 2 6 851 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 65 65 S 2 6 801 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 64 64 S 2 3 752 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 64 64 S 2 3 752 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 65 65 S 2 3 801 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 67 68 SSW 3 5 949 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 70 72 SSW 3 5 1146 1550 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 74 78 SSW 3 5 1504 1550 0 Blue 5
11 AM Thu 78 85 WSW 6 12 1792 1667 117 Blue 12
12 Noon Thu 80 88 WSW 6 12 2008 1790 240 Blue 15
1 PM Thu 82 91 WSW 6 12 2264 2005 455 Blue 18
2 PM Thu 83 91 W 9 16 2264 2005 455 Blue 18
3 PM Thu 82 89 W 9 16 2089 1844 294 Blue 16
4 PM Thu 82 87 W 9 16 1928 1749 199 Blue 14
5 PM Thu 81 84 W 9 16 1750 1626 76 Blue 11
6 PM Thu 78 79 W 9 16 1545 1550 0 Blue 6
7 PM Thu 75 75 W 9 16 1381 1550 0 Blue 2
8 PM Thu 73 73 W 5 9 1195 1550 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 71 71 W 5 9 1096 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 70 70 W 5 9 1047 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 69 69 SW 3 5 998 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 68 68 SW 3 5 949 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 67 67 SW 3 5 900 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 66 66 SW 2 4 851 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 65 65 SW 2 4 801 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 64 64 SW 2 4 752 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 64 64 S 2 4 752 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 64 64 S 2 4 752 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 66 66 S 2 4 851 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 68 69 SSW 3 6 998 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 72 74 SSW 3 6 1340 1550 0 Blue 1
10 AM Fri 76 79 SSW 3 6 1545 1550 0 Blue 6
11 AM Fri 79 86 SW 9 14 1847 1708 158 Blue 13
12 Noon Fri 80 88 SW 9 14 2008 1790 240 Blue 15
1 PM Fri 81 90 SW 9 14 2169 1925 375 Blue 17
2 PM Fri 80 88 SW 10 18 2008 1790 240 Blue 15
3 PM Fri 81 88 SW 10 18 2008 1790 240 Blue 15
4 PM Fri 80 85 SW 10 18 1792 1667 117 Blue 12
5 PM Fri 79 81 WSW 10 17 1627 1550 0 Blue 8
6 PM Fri 77 78 WSW 10 17 1504 1550 0 Blue 5
7 PM Fri 74 74 WSW 10 17 1340 1550 0 Blue 1
8 PM Fri 71 71 SW 5 9 1096 1550 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 69 69 SW 5 9 998 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 68 68 SW 5 9 949 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 68 68 WNW 2 4 949 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 67 67 WNW 2 4 900 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 66 66 WNW 2 4 851 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 66 66 N 2 3 851 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 65 65 N 2 3 801 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 64 64 N 2 3 752 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 64 64 NNE 2 3 752 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 65 65 NNE 2 3 801 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 66 66 NNE 2 3 851 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 68 69 W 2 4 998 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 72 74 W 2 4 1340 1550 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sat 75 79 W 2 4 1545 1550 0 Blue 6
11 AM Sat 77 83 SW 8 13 1709 1585 35 Blue 10
12 Noon Sat 79 87 SW 8 13 1928 1749 199 Blue 14
1 PM Sat 79 87 SW 8 13 1928 1749 199 Blue 14
2 PM Sat 79 87 SW 11 17 1928 1749 199 Blue 14
3 PM Sat 79 85 SW 11 17 1792 1667 117 Blue 12
4 PM Sat 78 82 SW 11 17 1668 1550 0 Blue 9
5 PM Sat 76 78 SW 10 17 1504 1550 0 Blue 5
6 PM Sat 73 74 SW 10 17 1340 1550 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sat 70 70 SW 10 17 1047 1550 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 68 68 SW 5 9 949 1550 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 67 67 SW 5 9 900 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 66 66 SW 5 9 851 1550 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst