Detailed Predictions for: Palomar
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.329, -116.97225, 3200
LZ Altitude (f): 925
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

21 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 71 66 E 4 9 840 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 72 67 E 4 10 840 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 71 66 E 5 11 840 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 72 67 E 5 11 840 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 73 68 E 5 12 1003 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 73 68 E 5 12 1003 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 74 69 E 6 12 1373 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 74 69 E 6 13 1373 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 76 71 E 3 8 1822 3200 0 Blue 1
9 AM Tue 80 77 ESE 2 6 2125 3200 0 Blue 7
10 AM Tue 83 81 E 3 8 2432 3200 0 Blue 11
11 AM Tue 87 87 WSW 5 10 3299 3200 0 Blue 17
12 Noon Tue 90 91 WSW 6 12 4312 3421 221 Blue 21
1 PM Tue 92 93 WSW 8 14 6141 3989 789 Blue 23
2 PM Tue 92 93 W 8 14 6141 3989 789 Blue 23
3 PM Tue 91 90 W 8 13 4013 3292 92 Blue 20
4 PM Tue 90 88 W 6 13 3430 3200 0 Blue 18
5 PM Tue 87 83 W 5 11 2777 3200 0 Blue 13
6 PM Tue 84 79 NW 3 8 2188 3200 0 Blue 9
7 PM Tue 79 74 NNE 2 6 2030 3200 0 Blue 4
8 PM Tue 76 71 NE 1 5 1822 3200 0 Blue 1
9 PM Tue 75 70 NE 2 5 1740 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 75 70 NE 2 6 1740 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 74 69 NE 3 8 1373 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 75 70 NE 3 8 1740 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 75 70 NE 3 8 1740 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 75 70 NE 3 8 1740 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 76 71 NE 3 9 1822 3200 0 Blue 1
4 AM Wed 75 70 NE 4 10 1740 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 75 70 NE 4 10 1740 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 72 67 NE 4 9 840 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 72 67 NE 3 8 840 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 74 69 NE 3 8 1373 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 77 74 N 4 9 2030 3200 0 Blue 4
10 AM Wed 78 76 NW 5 11 2093 3200 0 Blue 6
11 AM Wed 84 84 W 8 14 2908 3200 0 Blue 14
12 Noon Wed 89 90 W 9 17 4013 3292 92 Blue 20
1 PM Wed 93 94 W 11 18 6864 4285 1085 Blue 24
2 PM Wed 96 96 W 11 19 8198 6031 2831 Blue 26
3 PM Wed 95 94 W 10 18 6864 4285 1085 Blue 24
4 PM Wed 94 91 W 9 16 4312 3421 221 Blue 21
5 PM Wed 90 86 W 6 13 3169 3200 0 Blue 16
6 PM Wed 85 80 W 5 12 2310 3200 0 Blue 10
7 PM Wed 78 73 NNW 5 11 1984 3200 0 Blue 3
8 PM Wed 73 68 N 4 10 1003 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 71 66 N 4 10 840 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 70 65 N 4 10 840 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 70 65 NNE 4 10 840 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 70 65 NNE 4 9 840 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 71 66 N 4 9 840 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 70 65 N 4 9 840 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 69 64 N 5 10 840 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 70 65 N 5 11 840 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 70 65 N 6 12 840 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 70 65 N 5 11 840 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 70 65 NNW 4 10 840 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 72 67 NNW 4 9 840 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 74 70 NW 4 10 1740 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 75 73 W 5 11 1984 3200 0 Blue 3
11 AM Thu 80 79 W 6 12 2188 3200 0 Blue 9
12 Noon Thu 84 84 W 8 13 2908 3200 0 Blue 14
1 PM Thu 88 88 W 8 14 3430 3200 0 Blue 18
2 PM Thu 90 90 W 9 16 4013 3292 92 Blue 20
3 PM Thu 89 88 W 8 14 3430 3200 0 Blue 18
4 PM Thu 88 85 W 6 13 3038 3200 0 Blue 15
5 PM Thu 84 80 W 5 11 2310 3200 0 Blue 10
6 PM Thu 80 75 W 4 10 2062 3200 0 Blue 5
7 PM Thu 73 68 NNW 3 8 1003 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 69 64 N 2 6 840 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 67 62 N 2 5 840 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 66 61 NE 1 5 840 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 66 61 ENE 2 5 840 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 66 61 ENE 2 6 840 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 67 62 E 3 8 840 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 66 61 E 3 9 840 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 65 60 ESE 3 9 840 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 66 61 ESE 3 9 840 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 66 61 ESE 3 5 840 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 66 61 ESE 3 5 840 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 66 61 ESE 3 5 840 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 68 63 S 3 5 840 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 70 66 S 3 5 840 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 71 69 S 3 5 1373 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 76 75 WSW 5 10 2062 3200 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Fri 80 80 WSW 5 10 2310 3200 0 Blue 10
1 PM Fri 84 84 WSW 5 10 2908 3200 0 Blue 14
2 PM Fri 86 86 WSW 8 14 3169 3200 0 Blue 16
3 PM Fri 85 83 WSW 8 14 2777 3200 0 Blue 13
4 PM Fri 84 81 WSW 8 14 2432 3200 0 Blue 11
5 PM Fri 81 77 WSW 5 12 2125 3200 0 Blue 7
6 PM Fri 77 72 WSW 5 12 1903 3200 0 Blue 2
7 PM Fri 72 67 WSW 5 12 840 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 68 63 E 2 4 840 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 67 62 E 2 4 840 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 66 61 E 2 4 840 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 66 61 NE 2 3 840 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 66 61 NE 2 3 840 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 66 61 NE 2 3 840 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 66 61 ENE 3 3 840 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 65 60 ENE 3 3 840 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 66 61 ENE 3 3 840 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 66 61 E 3 4 840 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 66 61 E 3 4 840 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 66 61 E 3 4 840 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 68 63 S 2 5 840 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 70 66 S 2 5 840 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 70 67 S 2 5 840 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 74 73 WSW 5 9 1984 3200 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Sat 79 79 WSW 5 9 2188 3200 0 Blue 9
1 PM Sat 82 82 WSW 5 9 2647 3200 0 Blue 12
2 PM Sat 84 83 WSW 6 14 2777 3200 0 Blue 13
3 PM Sat 83 81 WSW 6 14 2432 3200 0 Blue 11
4 PM Sat 82 79 WSW 6 14 2188 3200 0 Blue 9
5 PM Sat 79 74 W 6 12 2030 3200 0 Blue 4
6 PM Sat 75 70 W 6 12 1740 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 70 65 W 6 12 840 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 66 61 WSW 3 5 840 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 65 60 WSW 3 5 840 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 64 59 WSW 3 5 840 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 64 59 SW 2 4 840 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 64 59 SW 2 4 840 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 64 59 SW 2 4 840 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 64 59 NNE 3 4 840 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 63 58 NNE 3 4 840 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 64 59 NNE 3 4 840 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 64 59 NNW 2 4 840 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 64 59 NNW 2 4 840 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 64 59 NNW 2 4 840 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 66 61 NW 2 5 840 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 68 64 NW 2 5 840 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 69 66 NW 2 5 840 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 73 71 W 6 9 1822 3200 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sun 77 76 W 6 9 2093 3200 0 Blue 6
1 PM Sun 81 81 W 6 9 2432 3200 0 Blue 11
2 PM Sun 83 82 W 9 14 2647 3200 0 Blue 12
3 PM Sun 82 80 W 9 14 2310 3200 0 Blue 10
4 PM Sun 82 79 W 9 14 2188 3200 0 Blue 9
5 PM Sun 78 74 W 6 12 2030 3200 0 Blue 4
6 PM Sun 74 69 W 6 12 1373 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 68 63 W 6 12 840 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 64 59 WNW 3 5 840 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 63 58 WNW 3 5 840 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 62 57 WNW 3 5 840 3200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst