Detailed Predictions for: Palomar
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.329, -116.97225, 3200
LZ Altitude (f): 925
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 6 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Wed 58 53 ENE 4 9 1047 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 57 52 ENE 4 9 1047 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 57 52 ENE 3 7 1047 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 56 51 ENE 3 6 1047 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 55 50 ENE 2 5 1047 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 55 50 ENE 3 6 1047 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 54 49 E 3 8 1047 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 42 37 N 2 10 1047 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 54 49 E 4 8 1047 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 58 54 E 3 6 1047 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 65 62 SW 2 2 1047 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 72 70 SW 4 4 1819 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 73 71 WSW 6 7 2011 3200 0 Blue 1
1 PM Wed 74 71 WSW 7 8 2011 3200 0 Blue 1
2 PM Wed 74 70 WSW 5 6 1819 3200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 73 68 WSW 5 6 1559 3200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 72 67 WSW 5 6 1430 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 64 59 WSW 5 8 1047 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 62 57 WSW 4 8 1047 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 61 56 W 2 5 1047 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 56 51 SW 2 4 1047 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 55 50 SW 0 1 1047 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 54 49 SE 1 2 1047 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 53 48 SE 2 6 1047 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 51 46 SSE 1 2 1047 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 51 46 ESE 1 2 1047 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 51 46 ESE 2 4 1047 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 50 45 E 3 6 1047 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 49 44 ESE 1 3 1047 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 50 45 SSE 0 1 1047 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 48 43 SE 2 4 1047 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 49 44 SE 4 8 1047 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 48 43 SE 3 8 1047 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 55 51 SSE 3 5 1047 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 58 55 S 5 6 1047 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 57 54 S 6 7 1047 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 61 58 SSW 7 8 1047 3200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 62 59 SSW 7 9 1047 3200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 59 55 SW 8 10 1047 3200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 63 58 SW 8 9 1047 3200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 61 56 SW 9 10 1047 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 53 48 SW 8 11 1047 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 52 47 SW 3 7 1047 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 51 46 SSW 3 6 1047 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 50 45 SSW 3 6 1047 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 53 48 S 4 6 1047 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 53 48 SSW 4 6 1047 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 50 45 S 3 5 1047 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 52 47 S 2 4 1047 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 50 45 SSE 3 6 1047 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 47 42 SE 4 7 1047 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 48 43 WNW 0 0 1047 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 50 45 ENE 4 7 1047 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 44 39 E 2 4 1047 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 47 42 E 3 7 1047 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 45 40 E 2 5 1047 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 39 34 NE 2 5 1047 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 52 48 ENE 2 3 1047 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 54 51 NE 1 1 1047 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 53 51 NW 2 2 1047 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 60 58 WNW 2 3 1047 3200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 62 59 WNW 4 5 1047 3200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 62 58 WNW 5 6 1047 3200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 65 60 WNW 6 7 1047 3200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 64 59 WNW 7 8 1047 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 58 53 WNW 6 9 1047 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 53 48 NW 3 7 1047 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 51 46 NNE 2 4 1047 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 47 42 ENE 3 7 1047 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 51 46 NE 4 9 1047 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 51 46 ENE 5 11 1047 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 41 36 ENE 6 14 1047 3200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst