Detailed Predictions for: Palomar
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.329, -116.97225, 3200
LZ Altitude (f): 925
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

23 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 67 62 N 3 6 1642 3200 0 Blue 3
1 AM Wed 67 62 N 2 6 1642 3200 0 Blue 3
2 AM Wed 66 61 ESE 3 8 1570 3200 0 Blue 2
3 AM Wed 66 61 E 2 6 1570 3200 0 Blue 2
4 AM Wed 65 60 ESE 3 9 1499 3200 0 Blue 1
5 AM Wed 65 60 SSE 2 6 1499 3200 0 Blue 1
6 AM Wed 66 61 SE 2 6 1570 3200 0 Blue 2
7 AM Wed 68 63 SE 2 6 1713 3200 0 Blue 4
8 AM Wed 70 65 SSW 2 6 1856 3200 0 Blue 6
9 AM Wed 72 68 WSW 4 9 2054 3200 0 Blue 9
10 AM Wed 75 72 W 5 10 2419 3200 0 Blue 13
11 AM Wed 78 76 W 5 11 2734 3200 0 Blue 17
12 Noon Wed 80 79 W 5 11 2931 3200 0 Blue 20
1 PM Wed 83 82 W 6 13 3127 3200 0 Blue 23
2 PM Wed 83 83 W 6 13 3192 3200 0 Blue 24
3 PM Wed 84 83 W 6 13 3192 3200 0 Blue 24
4 PM Wed 82 79 W 6 12 2931 3200 0 Blue 20
5 PM Wed 80 77 W 6 12 2801 3200 0 Blue 18
6 PM Wed 77 73 W 4 10 2518 3200 0 Blue 14
7 PM Wed 73 68 W 3 9 2054 3200 0 Blue 9
8 PM Wed 70 65 W 2 6 1856 3200 0 Blue 6
9 PM Wed 67 62 W 2 6 1642 3200 0 Blue 3
10 PM Wed 66 61 W 2 6 1570 3200 0 Blue 2
11 PM Wed 65 60 W 2 5 1499 3200 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Thu 64 59 WNW 1 5 978 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 63 58 N 1 5 440 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 61 56 NNE 1 5 440 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 60 55 NNE 1 4 440 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 59 54 NNE 1 1 440 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 59 54 NNE 1 5 440 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 61 56 N 1 5 440 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 63 58 WNW 2 6 440 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 66 62 W 2 6 1642 3200 0 Blue 3
9 AM Thu 70 68 W 4 9 2054 3200 0 Blue 9
10 AM Thu 73 73 W 5 11 2518 3200 0 Blue 14
11 AM Thu 76 78 W 6 12 2866 3200 0 Blue 19
12 Noon Thu 78 82 W 8 13 3127 3200 0 Blue 23
1 PM Thu 80 84 W 8 14 3257 3200 0 Blue 25
2 PM Thu 80 83 W 9 14 3192 3200 0 Blue 24
3 PM Thu 80 82 W 8 14 3127 3200 0 Blue 23
4 PM Thu 80 80 W 8 14 2996 3200 0 Blue 21
5 PM Thu 78 76 W 6 12 2734 3200 0 Blue 17
6 PM Thu 74 70 W 5 11 2155 3200 0 Blue 11
7 PM Thu 71 66 NW 4 10 1928 3200 0 Blue 7
8 PM Thu 68 63 NW 3 8 1713 3200 0 Blue 4
9 PM Thu 66 61 NNW 2 6 1570 3200 0 Blue 2
10 PM Thu 65 60 N 2 6 1499 3200 0 Blue 1
11 PM Thu 64 59 N 2 5 978 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 63 58 N 2 5 440 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 62 57 N 2 6 440 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 61 56 N 2 6 440 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 60 55 NNE 2 6 440 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 59 54 NNE 2 6 440 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 60 55 NNE 2 6 440 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 62 57 N 2 6 440 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 65 60 NW 2 6 1499 3200 0 Blue 1
8 AM Fri 69 65 WNW 2 6 1856 3200 0 Blue 6
9 AM Fri 72 70 WNW 3 9 2155 3200 0 Blue 11
10 AM Fri 76 76 W 5 10 2734 3200 0 Blue 17
11 AM Fri 79 82 W 6 12 3127 3200 0 Blue 23
12 Noon Fri 81 85 W 8 13 3323 3200 0 Blue 26
1 PM Fri 83 87 W 8 14 3453 3254 54 Blue 28
2 PM Fri 83 86 W 8 14 3388 3200 0 Blue 27
3 PM Fri 83 85 W 8 14 3323 3200 0 Blue 26
4 PM Fri 83 83 W 8 13 3192 3200 0 Blue 24
5 PM Fri 81 79 W 6 12 2931 3200 0 Blue 20
6 PM Fri 78 74 W 5 10 2595 3200 0 Blue 15
7 PM Fri 74 69 WNW 3 9 2104 3200 0 Blue 10
8 PM Fri 72 67 NW 3 8 2000 3200 0 Blue 8
9 PM Fri 70 65 NNW 2 6 1856 3200 0 Blue 6
10 PM Fri 69 64 N 3 8 1785 3200 0 Blue 5
11 PM Fri 68 63 N 3 8 1713 3200 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Sat 67 62 NNE 4 9 1642 3200 0 Blue 3
1 AM Sat 66 61 NNE 4 10 1570 3200 0 Blue 2
2 AM Sat 64 59 NNE 4 10 978 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 62 57 NNE 4 10 440 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 61 56 NNE 4 9 440 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 62 57 NNE 3 8 440 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 66 61 NNE 3 8 1570 3200 0 Blue 2
7 AM Sat 72 67 NNE 3 8 2000 3200 0 Blue 8
8 AM Sat 76 72 NW 3 8 2419 3200 0 Blue 13
9 AM Sat 80 78 NW 3 8 2866 3200 0 Blue 19
10 AM Sat 81 81 NW 3 8 3062 3200 0 Blue 22
11 AM Sat 83 85 W 5 11 3323 3200 0 Blue 26
12 Noon Sat 85 88 W 5 11 3526 3319 119 Blue 29
1 PM Sat 87 91 W 5 11 4131 3519 319 Blue 32
2 PM Sat 89 92 W 6 13 4362 3649 449 Blue 33
3 PM Sat 88 90 W 6 13 3899 3449 249 Blue 31
4 PM Sat 88 88 W 6 13 3526 3319 119 Blue 29
5 PM Sat 86 83 WSW 6 12 3192 3200 0 Blue 24
6 PM Sat 82 78 WSW 6 12 2866 3200 0 Blue 19
7 PM Sat 78 73 WSW 6 12 2518 3200 0 Blue 14
8 PM Sat 75 70 N 2 6 2155 3200 0 Blue 11
9 PM Sat 72 67 N 2 6 2000 3200 0 Blue 8
10 PM Sat 70 65 N 2 6 1856 3200 0 Blue 6
11 PM Sat 69 64 NNE 4 9 1785 3200 0 Blue 5
12 Midnight Sun 70 65 NNE 4 9 1856 3200 0 Blue 6
1 AM Sun 72 67 NNE 4 9 2000 3200 0 Blue 8
2 AM Sun 72 67 NNE 4 9 2000 3200 0 Blue 8
3 AM Sun 70 65 NNE 4 9 1856 3200 0 Blue 6
4 AM Sun 68 63 NNE 4 9 1713 3200 0 Blue 4
5 AM Sun 67 62 NNE 4 9 1642 3200 0 Blue 3
6 AM Sun 70 65 NNE 4 9 1856 3200 0 Blue 6
7 AM Sun 76 71 NNE 4 9 2239 3200 0 Blue 12
8 AM Sun 82 78 NW 2 6 2866 3200 0 Blue 19
9 AM Sun 86 84 NW 2 6 3257 3200 0 Blue 25
10 AM Sun 88 88 NW 2 6 3526 3319 119 Blue 29
11 AM Sun 89 91 W 5 10 4131 3519 319 Blue 32
12 Noon Sun 91 94 W 5 10 6442 4111 911 Blue 35
1 PM Sun 93 96 W 5 10 9664 4736 1536 White 37
2 PM Sun 93 95 WSW 6 13 9450 4341 1141 White 36
3 PM Sun 94 95 WSW 6 13 9450 4341 1141 White 36
4 PM Sun 93 92 WSW 6 13 4362 3649 449 Blue 33
5 PM Sun 90 87 WSW 5 12 3453 3254 54 Blue 28
6 PM Sun 87 83 WSW 5 12 3192 3200 0 Blue 24
7 PM Sun 83 78 WSW 5 12 2866 3200 0 Blue 19
8 PM Sun 79 74 S 2 6 2595 3200 0 Blue 15
9 PM Sun 77 72 S 2 6 2419 3200 0 Blue 13
10 PM Sun 75 70 S 2 6 2155 3200 0 Blue 11
11 PM Sun 74 69 NE 3 8 2104 3200 0 Blue 10
12 Midnight Mon 73 68 NE 3 8 2054 3200 0 Blue 9
1 AM Mon 72 67 NE 3 8 2000 3200 0 Blue 8
2 AM Mon 71 66 NNE 3 9 1928 3200 0 Blue 7
3 AM Mon 70 65 NNE 3 9 1856 3200 0 Blue 6
4 AM Mon 69 64 NNE 3 9 1785 3200 0 Blue 5
5 AM Mon 70 65 NNE 3 8 1856 3200 0 Blue 6
6 AM Mon 74 69 NNE 3 8 2104 3200 0 Blue 10
7 AM Mon 79 74 NNE 3 8 2595 3200 0 Blue 15
8 AM Mon 84 80 SW 2 6 2996 3200 0 Blue 21
9 AM Mon 88 86 SW 2 6 3388 3200 0 Blue 27
10 AM Mon 91 90 SW 2 6 3899 3449 249 Blue 31
11 AM Mon 92 93 WSW 5 11 4793 3880 680 Blue 34
12 Noon Mon 94 96 WSW 5 11 9664 4736 1536 White 37
1 PM Mon 95 97 WSW 5 11 9877 6162 2962 White 38
2 PM Mon 94 96 WSW 8 13 9664 4736 1536 White 37
3 PM Mon 95 95 WSW 8 13 9450 4341 1141 White 36
4 PM Mon 94 93 WSW 8 13 4793 3880 680 Blue 34
5 PM Mon 91 88 WSW 6 12 3526 3319 119 Blue 29
6 PM Mon 87 82 WSW 6 12 3127 3200 0 Blue 23
7 PM Mon 82 77 WSW 6 12 2801 3200 0 Blue 18
8 PM Mon 78 73 NW 2 6 2518 3200 0 Blue 14
9 PM Mon 76 71 NW 2 6 2239 3200 0 Blue 12
10 PM Mon 76 71 NW 2 6 2239 3200 0 Blue 12

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst