Detailed Predictions for: Palomar
Launch Altitude (f): 3200
LZ Altitude (f): 925
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

17 NOV 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sun 64 59 NE 18 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 64 59 NE 18 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 64 59 NE 17 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 65 60 E 16 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 70 65 E 14 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 76 72 E 9 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 82 79 E 2 1352 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 86 84 E 2 6330 3300 100 Blue 4
12 Noon Sun 88 86 E 2 6971 5793 2593 Blue 6
1 PM Sun 87 85 S 0 6721 4502 1302 Blue 5
2 PM Sun 86 83 SW 1 5933 3200 0 Blue 3
3 PM Sun 83 79 W 1 1352 3200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 79 74 W 1 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 75 70 E 3 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 70 65 E 5 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 66 61 E 10 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 63 58 E 10 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 62 57 E 9 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 61 56 E 8 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 60 55 E 9 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 61 56 E 9 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 60 55 E 9 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 60 55 E 8 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 59 54 E 9 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 58 53 E 9 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 58 53 E 9 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 60 55 E 9 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 64 59 E 8 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 70 65 E 6 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 77 73 E 5 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 83 80 SW 3 1744 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 86 84 SW 3 6330 3300 100 Blue 4
12 Noon Mon 86 83 W 3 5933 3200 0 Blue 3
1 PM Mon 87 84 W 6 6330 3300 100 Blue 4
2 PM Mon 86 82 W 6 4614 3200 0 Blue 2
3 PM Mon 84 79 W 6 1352 3200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 82 77 W 2 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 79 74 E 2 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 76 71 E 2 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 73 68 SE 8 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 70 65 SE 8 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 68 63 SE 7 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 66 61 SE 6 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 65 60 E 5 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 65 60 E 2 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 64 59 E 2 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 64 59 E 2 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 63 58 NE 2 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 63 58 NE 2 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 63 58 E 2 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 64 59 E 2 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 65 60 E 5 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 68 63 SE 3 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 70 65 S 3 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 73 69 S 8 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 73 69 S 9 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 73 70 S 10 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 73 69 S 10 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 72 68 S 12 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 70 65 S 13 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 67 62 S 13 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 65 60 S 10 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 62 57 S 13 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 60 55 SE 15 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 59 54 S 13 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 59 54 SE 14 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 59 54 SE 15 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 59 54 S 13 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 59 54 S 13 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 58 53 SW 13 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 58 53 SW 13 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 57 52 SW 13 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 56 51 SW 12 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 55 50 SW 12 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 54 49 SW 12 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 54 49 S 9 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 55 50 S 9 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 57 52 S 9 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 59 54 S 13 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 60 55 S 13 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 59 54 S 13 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 59 54 SW 14 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 58 53 SW 14 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 57 52 SW 14 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 56 51 S 12 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 56 51 S 12 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 56 51 S 12 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 57 52 S 8 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 57 52 S 8 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 57 52 S 8 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 56 51 S 6 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 56 51 S 6 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 55 50 S 6 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 55 50 S 12 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 55 50 S 12 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 55 50 S 12 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 54 49 SE 7 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 54 49 SE 7 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 53 48 SE 7 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 53 48 SE 7 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 54 49 SE 7 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 56 51 SE 7 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 58 54 S 8 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 59 55 S 8 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 60 56 S 8 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 60 56 SW 8 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 60 55 SW 8 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 60 55 SW 8 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 60 55 SW 7 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 58 53 SW 7 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 57 52 SW 7 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 55 50 S 2 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 54 49 S 2 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 54 49 S 2 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 54 49 E 5 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 54 49 E 5 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 54 49 E 5 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 54 49 E 3 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 53 48 E 3 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 52 47 E 3 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 52 47 E 7 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 52 47 E 7 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 54 49 E 7 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 56 51 E 13 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 58 53 E 13 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 60 56 E 13 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 62 59 E 10 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 64 61 E 10 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 65 62 E 10 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 65 62 E 10 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 64 60 E 10 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 64 59 E 10 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 63 58 S 10 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 60 55 S 10 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 57 52 S 10 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 54 49 S 6 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 54 49 S 6 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 54 49 S 6 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 54 49 E 10 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 54 49 E 10 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 54 49 E 10 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 54 49 E 10 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 54 49 E 10 1335 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 54 49 E 10 1335 3200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst