Detailed Predictions for: Soboba
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.8223, -116.9588, 2260
LZ Altitude (f): 1520
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

23 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 68 63 S 1 5 1861 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 67 62 SW 1 5 1789 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 66 61 NNE 2 6 1717 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 66 61 SE 4 9 1717 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 65 60 NW 3 8 1646 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 65 60 NE 3 9 1646 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 66 61 SE 3 8 1717 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 67 62 S 4 9 1789 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 69 64 NNW 3 8 1933 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 71 67 NW 5 10 2109 2260 0 Blue 2
10 AM Wed 73 70 WNW 5 11 2434 2260 0 Blue 5
11 AM Wed 75 73 W 6 13 2672 2432 172 Blue 8
12 Noon Wed 78 77 WSW 8 14 2940 2740 480 Blue 12
1 PM Wed 81 80 SW 11 19 3136 2937 677 Blue 15
2 PM Wed 84 83 SW 11 19 3333 3133 873 Blue 18
3 PM Wed 86 84 SSW 11 18 3398 3199 939 Blue 19
4 PM Wed 85 82 SSW 11 19 3267 3068 808 Blue 17
5 PM Wed 85 82 SSW 11 19 3267 3068 808 Blue 17
6 PM Wed 82 78 SSW 10 17 3005 2807 547 Blue 13
7 PM Wed 77 72 SSW 8 14 2602 2260 0 Blue 7
8 PM Wed 73 68 SSW 6 12 2159 2260 0 Blue 3
9 PM Wed 70 65 SSW 5 10 2005 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 67 62 SSW 3 8 1789 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 65 60 SSW 2 6 1646 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 64 59 SW 2 5 1574 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 62 57 W 1 5 1460 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 61 56 WNW 2 5 1460 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 60 55 WNW 2 5 1460 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 58 53 NNW 2 5 1460 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 58 53 NNW 2 6 1460 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 59 54 NNW 2 6 1460 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 61 56 WNW 3 6 1460 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 64 60 W 3 8 1646 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 68 66 W 4 9 2058 2260 0 Blue 1
10 AM Thu 72 72 W 5 11 2602 2260 0 Blue 7
11 AM Thu 75 77 W 6 12 2940 2740 480 Blue 12
12 Noon Thu 79 83 W 6 13 3333 3133 873 Blue 18
1 PM Thu 82 86 W 8 14 3543 3329 1069 Blue 21
2 PM Thu 84 87 W 8 14 3706 3395 1135 Blue 22
3 PM Thu 84 86 W 10 17 3543 3329 1069 Blue 21
4 PM Thu 84 84 W 11 18 3398 3199 939 Blue 19
5 PM Thu 84 82 W 11 19 3267 3068 808 Blue 17
6 PM Thu 81 77 W 11 18 2940 2740 480 Blue 12
7 PM Thu 77 72 W 9 17 2602 2260 0 Blue 7
8 PM Thu 73 68 W 8 14 2159 2260 0 Blue 3
9 PM Thu 70 65 W 5 11 2005 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 67 62 WNW 4 9 1789 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 65 60 WNW 2 6 1646 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 63 58 WNW 2 5 1502 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 62 57 NNW 2 5 1460 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 60 55 NNW 2 5 1460 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 59 54 NNW 1 5 1460 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 58 53 NNW 1 1 1460 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 58 53 NNW 1 1 1460 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 60 55 NW 1 4 1460 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 62 57 WNW 2 5 1460 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 66 62 W 2 6 1789 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 69 67 W 3 8 2109 2260 0 Blue 2
10 AM Fri 73 73 W 4 9 2672 2432 172 Blue 8
11 AM Fri 77 79 W 5 11 3070 2872 612 Blue 14
12 Noon Fri 81 85 W 6 13 3464 3264 1004 Blue 20
1 PM Fri 84 88 W 8 14 3940 3460 1200 Blue 23
2 PM Fri 86 89 W 10 17 4173 3537 1277 Blue 24
3 PM Fri 86 88 W 11 18 3940 3460 1200 Blue 23
4 PM Fri 86 86 W 11 19 3543 3329 1069 Blue 21
5 PM Fri 86 84 W 11 19 3398 3199 939 Blue 19
6 PM Fri 84 80 W 10 18 3136 2937 677 Blue 15
7 PM Fri 81 76 W 9 16 2874 2670 410 Blue 11
8 PM Fri 78 73 W 6 13 2672 2432 172 Blue 8
9 PM Fri 74 69 WNW 4 10 2256 2260 0 Blue 4
10 PM Fri 71 66 WNW 3 8 2058 2260 0 Blue 1
11 PM Fri 68 63 NW 1 5 1861 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 67 62 NNW 1 1 1789 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 66 61 N 0 0 1717 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 65 60 NNE 1 1 1646 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 63 58 NNE 1 1 1502 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 62 57 NNE 1 1 1460 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 62 57 NNE 1 1 1460 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 64 59 NNE 1 1 1574 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 68 63 NNE 1 1 1861 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 72 68 W 2 5 2159 2260 0 Blue 3
9 AM Sat 76 74 W 2 5 2742 2525 265 Blue 9
10 AM Sat 80 80 W 2 5 3136 2937 677 Blue 15
11 AM Sat 84 86 W 4 10 3543 3329 1069 Blue 21
12 Noon Sat 88 91 W 4 10 4897 3924 1664 Blue 26
1 PM Sat 91 94 W 4 10 9780 4845 2585 White 29
2 PM Sat 94 97 W 8 13 10420 9167 6907 White 32
3 PM Sat 94 95 W 8 13 9995 6540 4280 White 30
4 PM Sat 94 93 W 8 13 9565 4386 2126 White 28
5 PM Sat 93 90 SW 10 17 4406 3692 1432 Blue 25
6 PM Sat 90 86 SW 10 17 3543 3329 1069 Blue 21
7 PM Sat 86 81 SW 10 17 3202 3002 742 Blue 16
8 PM Sat 81 76 SW 5 11 2874 2670 410 Blue 11
9 PM Sat 77 72 SW 5 11 2602 2260 0 Blue 7
10 PM Sat 73 68 SW 5 11 2159 2260 0 Blue 3
11 PM Sat 70 65 WNW 2 6 2005 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 69 64 WNW 2 6 1933 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 68 63 WNW 2 6 1861 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 68 63 SSE 2 5 1861 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 67 62 SSE 2 5 1789 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 67 62 SSE 2 5 1789 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 67 62 NNE 1 5 1789 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 69 64 NNE 1 5 1933 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 72 67 NNE 1 5 2109 2260 0 Blue 2
8 AM Sun 76 72 W 2 6 2602 2260 0 Blue 7
9 AM Sun 80 78 W 2 6 3005 2807 547 Blue 13
10 AM Sun 85 85 W 2 6 3464 3264 1004 Blue 20
11 AM Sun 89 91 W 5 10 4897 3924 1664 Blue 26
12 Noon Sun 94 97 W 5 10 10420 9167 6907 White 32
1 PM Sun 97 100 W 5 10 11032 11032 8772 White 35
2 PM Sun 97 99 W 8 13 10828 10828 8568 White 34
3 PM Sun 97 98 W 8 13 10624 10182 7922 White 33
4 PM Sun 95 94 W 8 13 9780 4845 2585 White 29
5 PM Sun 92 89 SW 10 17 4173 3537 1277 Blue 24
6 PM Sun 89 85 SW 10 17 3464 3264 1004 Blue 20
7 PM Sun 85 80 SW 10 17 3136 2937 677 Blue 15
8 PM Sun 82 77 SSW 5 11 2940 2740 480 Blue 12
9 PM Sun 79 74 SSW 5 11 2742 2525 265 Blue 9
10 PM Sun 77 72 SSW 5 11 2602 2260 0 Blue 7
11 PM Sun 75 70 SW 3 8 2434 2260 0 Blue 5
12 Midnight Mon 73 68 SW 3 8 2159 2260 0 Blue 3
1 AM Mon 72 67 SW 3 8 2109 2260 0 Blue 2
2 AM Mon 71 66 NW 2 5 2058 2260 0 Blue 1
3 AM Mon 69 64 NW 2 5 1933 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 68 63 NW 2 5 1861 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 68 63 WNW 2 5 1861 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 70 65 WNW 2 5 2005 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 73 68 WNW 2 5 2159 2260 0 Blue 3
8 AM Mon 78 74 W 3 8 2742 2525 265 Blue 9
9 AM Mon 84 82 W 3 8 3267 3068 808 Blue 17
10 AM Mon 89 89 W 3 8 4173 3537 1277 Blue 24
11 AM Mon 94 95 WSW 5 11 9995 6540 4280 White 30
12 Noon Mon 97 99 WSW 5 11 10828 10828 8568 White 34
1 PM Mon 99 101 WSW 5 11 11234 11234 8974 White 36
2 PM Mon 98 100 SW 6 12 11032 11032 8772 White 35
3 PM Mon 98 99 SW 6 12 10828 10828 8568 White 34
4 PM Mon 97 96 SW 6 12 10209 7992 5732 White 31
5 PM Mon 94 91 SSW 10 17 4897 3924 1664 Blue 26
6 PM Mon 91 86 SSW 10 17 3543 3329 1069 Blue 21
7 PM Mon 87 82 SSW 10 17 3267 3068 808 Blue 17
8 PM Mon 83 78 SW 5 11 3005 2807 547 Blue 13
9 PM Mon 80 75 SW 5 11 2809 2600 340 Blue 10
10 PM Mon 77 72 SW 5 11 2602 2260 0 Blue 7

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst