Detailed Predictions for: Soboba
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.8223, -116.9588, 2260
LZ Altitude (f): 1520
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

21 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 70 65 ENE 5 10 1742 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 69 64 E 6 12 1742 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 68 63 E 9 16 1742 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 69 64 E 9 16 1742 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 68 63 E 11 19 1742 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 67 62 E 12 20 1742 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 66 61 E 13 21 1742 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 67 62 E 13 23 1742 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 73 68 ENE 9 16 1746 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 78 74 ENE 4 10 2096 2260 0 Blue 3
10 AM Tue 82 80 ENE 3 9 2661 2260 0 Blue 9
11 AM Tue 86 86 ENE 3 8 3451 3049 789 Blue 15
12 Noon Tue 88 89 ENE 3 8 4357 3441 1181 Blue 18
1 PM Tue 90 91 ENE 3 8 6268 4036 1776 Blue 20
2 PM Tue 92 93 NNE 5 11 7673 5408 3148 Blue 22
3 PM Tue 93 92 NNE 8 13 6990 4333 2073 Blue 21
4 PM Tue 93 91 NNE 5 10 6268 4036 1776 Blue 20
5 PM Tue 92 88 SW 13 21 4057 3310 1050 Blue 17
6 PM Tue 88 83 SW 9 16 3054 2657 397 Blue 12
7 PM Tue 82 77 S 5 11 2199 2260 0 Blue 6
8 PM Tue 80 75 S 2 6 2128 2260 0 Blue 4
9 PM Tue 78 73 SE 1 5 2064 2260 0 Blue 2
10 PM Tue 75 70 ENE 1 5 1909 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 73 68 NNE 1 5 1746 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 72 67 NNE 1 5 1742 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 71 66 NE 1 5 1742 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 70 65 ENE 2 5 1742 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 69 64 ENE 2 5 1742 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 69 64 E 2 6 1742 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 68 63 E 2 6 1742 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 66 61 E 1 5 1742 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 66 61 E 1 1 1742 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 73 68 E 1 1 1746 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 77 73 NE 2 6 2064 2260 0 Blue 2
10 AM Wed 81 79 NW 3 9 2445 2260 0 Blue 8
11 AM Wed 86 86 W 5 11 3451 3049 789 Blue 15
12 Noon Wed 90 91 W 6 13 6268 4036 1776 Blue 20
1 PM Wed 93 94 W 8 14 8323 6164 3904 Blue 23
2 PM Wed 95 95 W 9 17 8706 6876 4616 Blue 24
3 PM Wed 95 94 W 11 19 8323 6164 3904 Blue 23
4 PM Wed 95 92 WNW 13 23 6990 4333 2073 Blue 21
5 PM Wed 95 91 WNW 13 23 6268 4036 1776 Blue 20
6 PM Wed 92 87 WNW 12 20 3755 3180 920 Blue 16
7 PM Wed 85 80 NW 9 17 2661 2260 0 Blue 9
8 PM Wed 81 76 NNW 6 12 2159 2260 0 Blue 5
9 PM Wed 78 73 N 5 11 2064 2260 0 Blue 2
10 PM Wed 75 70 E 4 10 1909 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 73 68 SE 4 10 1746 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 71 66 SE 4 9 1742 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 70 65 SE 4 9 1742 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 69 64 SE 4 9 1742 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 67 62 ESE 3 8 1742 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 68 63 E 2 6 1742 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 67 62 ENE 1 5 1742 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 66 61 ESE 1 1 1742 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 66 61 SSW 1 1 1742 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 72 67 WSW 1 5 1742 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 75 71 WSW 2 6 1990 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 78 76 SW 4 9 2159 2260 0 Blue 5
11 AM Thu 82 81 SW 5 11 2792 2320 60 Blue 10
12 Noon Thu 85 85 WSW 8 14 3316 2918 658 Blue 14
1 PM Thu 87 87 WSW 10 17 3755 3180 920 Blue 16
2 PM Thu 89 89 W 11 19 4357 3441 1181 Blue 18
3 PM Thu 89 87 W 12 20 3755 3180 920 Blue 16
4 PM Thu 89 86 W 12 20 3451 3049 789 Blue 15
5 PM Thu 89 85 W 12 20 3316 2918 658 Blue 14
6 PM Thu 86 81 W 9 17 2792 2320 60 Blue 10
7 PM Thu 80 75 W 6 12 2128 2260 0 Blue 4
8 PM Thu 76 71 W 3 8 1990 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 73 68 SW 2 6 1746 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 71 66 S 1 5 1742 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 68 63 SE 1 4 1742 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 67 62 E 1 1 1742 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 66 61 NNE 1 1 1742 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 64 59 N 1 4 1742 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 63 58 N 1 5 1742 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 64 59 NNE 1 5 1742 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 63 58 NNE 1 4 1742 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 62 57 NNE 1 4 1742 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 62 57 NNE 1 4 1742 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 68 63 ENE 2 4 1742 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 72 68 ENE 2 4 1746 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 75 73 ENE 2 4 2064 2260 0 Blue 2
11 AM Fri 79 78 ENE 5 9 2322 2260 0 Blue 7
12 Noon Fri 82 82 ENE 5 9 2923 2442 182 Blue 11
1 PM Fri 85 85 ENE 5 9 3316 2918 658 Blue 14
2 PM Fri 87 86 WSW 8 12 3451 3049 789 Blue 15
3 PM Fri 87 85 WSW 8 12 3316 2918 658 Blue 14
4 PM Fri 87 84 WSW 8 12 3185 2788 528 Blue 13
5 PM Fri 87 83 SSW 10 13 3054 2657 397 Blue 12
6 PM Fri 84 79 SSW 10 13 2445 2260 0 Blue 8
7 PM Fri 79 74 SSW 10 13 2096 2260 0 Blue 3
8 PM Fri 75 70 S 4 6 1909 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 72 67 S 4 6 1742 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 70 65 S 4 6 1742 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 68 63 WNW 2 3 1742 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 66 61 WNW 2 3 1742 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 65 60 WNW 2 3 1742 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 64 59 WNW 2 3 1742 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 63 58 WNW 2 3 1742 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 63 58 WNW 2 3 1742 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 63 58 NNW 2 3 1742 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 62 57 NNW 2 3 1742 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 62 57 NNW 2 3 1742 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 67 62 WNW 2 4 1742 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 70 66 WNW 2 4 1742 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 73 70 WNW 2 4 1909 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 77 75 W 5 8 2128 2260 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Sat 80 79 W 5 8 2445 2260 0 Blue 8
1 PM Sat 82 81 W 5 8 2792 2320 60 Blue 10
2 PM Sat 84 83 WSW 6 11 3054 2657 397 Blue 12
3 PM Sat 84 82 WSW 6 11 2923 2442 182 Blue 11
4 PM Sat 84 81 WSW 6 11 2792 2320 60 Blue 10
5 PM Sat 84 79 NNE 6 12 2445 2260 0 Blue 8
6 PM Sat 81 76 NNE 6 12 2159 2260 0 Blue 5
7 PM Sat 76 71 NNE 6 12 1990 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 73 68 N 4 8 1746 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 70 65 N 4 8 1742 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 68 63 N 4 8 1742 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 66 61 WNW 3 5 1742 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 64 59 WNW 3 5 1742 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 63 58 WNW 3 5 1742 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 62 57 WSW 1 4 1742 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 61 56 WSW 1 4 1742 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 61 56 WSW 1 4 1742 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 61 56 NW 2 3 1742 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 60 55 NW 2 3 1742 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 60 55 NW 2 3 1742 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 66 61 NW 2 4 1742 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 69 65 NW 2 4 1742 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 72 69 NW 2 4 1827 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 76 74 W 5 8 2096 2260 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Sun 79 78 W 5 8 2322 2260 0 Blue 7
1 PM Sun 81 80 W 5 8 2661 2260 0 Blue 9
2 PM Sun 83 82 W 6 12 2923 2442 182 Blue 11
3 PM Sun 83 81 W 6 12 2792 2320 60 Blue 10
4 PM Sun 83 80 W 6 12 2661 2260 0 Blue 9
5 PM Sun 83 79 SW 10 14 2445 2260 0 Blue 8
6 PM Sun 80 75 SW 10 14 2128 2260 0 Blue 4
7 PM Sun 75 70 SW 10 14 1909 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 71 66 SSW 5 9 1742 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 68 63 SSW 5 9 1742 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 66 61 SSW 5 9 1742 2260 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst