Detailed Predictions for: Soboba
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.8223, -116.9588, 2260
LZ Altitude (f): 1520
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 5 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Tue 57 52 E 16 25 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 56 51 E 13 21 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 56 51 E 11 19 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 55 50 E 10 17 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 54 49 E 12 20 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 54 49 E 16 25 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 55 50 E 18 28 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 55 50 ENE 19 31 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 60 55 ENE 17 26 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 63 59 E 14 23 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 67 64 E 12 20 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 71 68 E 12 21 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 72 69 ENE 13 23 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 74 71 ENE 14 23 2031 2260 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 74 70 ENE 13 23 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 74 69 ENE 13 23 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 72 67 ENE 16 25 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 70 65 ENE 16 26 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 67 62 ENE 17 27 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 64 59 ENE 17 26 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 62 57 ENE 14 25 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 61 56 ENE 13 21 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 59 54 ENE 11 18 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 58 53 E 9 16 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 57 52 E 8 13 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 56 51 E 6 12 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 56 51 E 5 11 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 56 51 E 5 11 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 55 50 E 5 11 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 54 49 E 5 10 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 54 49 E 4 10 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 54 49 E 4 9 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 58 53 SE 3 8 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 62 58 SSW 3 8 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 67 64 WSW 3 8 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 70 67 WSW 4 10 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 72 69 SW 6 12 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 72 69 SW 8 14 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 72 68 WSW 9 16 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 71 66 WSW 9 16 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 69 64 WSW 8 14 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 66 61 SW 6 12 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 63 58 SSE 4 10 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 60 55 SE 3 8 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 57 52 SE 2 6 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 55 50 SE 2 5 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 54 49 ESE 2 5 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 53 48 ESE 2 5 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 52 47 ESE 2 6 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 51 46 ESE 2 6 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 50 45 ESE 1 5 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 50 45 E 1 1 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 49 44 E 1 1 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 48 43 E 1 1 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 47 42 E 1 5 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 48 43 E 2 6 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 50 45 SE 3 8 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 53 49 S 4 9 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 57 53 SSW 5 10 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 60 57 SW 5 12 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 62 59 SW 6 13 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 63 60 WSW 8 14 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 63 59 WSW 9 16 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 63 58 W 10 17 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 61 56 W 10 18 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 59 54 WSW 9 17 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 56 51 S 8 14 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 54 49 SE 6 13 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 52 47 SE 6 12 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 51 46 SSE 6 12 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 50 45 SSE 6 12 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 49 44 SSE 5 11 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 48 43 S 5 11 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 48 43 S 5 11 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 47 42 S 4 10 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 46 41 SSE 4 10 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 46 41 SE 4 9 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 44 39 SE 4 9 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 43 38 SE 4 9 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 44 39 NE 4 9 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 46 41 NE 4 9 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 51 46 NE 4 9 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 55 52 S 8 14 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 58 55 S 8 14 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 61 58 S 8 14 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 63 60 E 12 20 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 64 60 E 12 20 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 63 58 E 12 20 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 62 57 E 13 21 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 59 54 E 13 21 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 56 51 E 13 21 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 54 49 ENE 17 27 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 52 47 ENE 17 27 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 50 45 ENE 17 27 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 49 44 ENE 13 23 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 48 43 ENE 13 23 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 47 42 ENE 13 23 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 47 42 ENE 13 23 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 46 41 ENE 13 23 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 46 41 ENE 13 23 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 46 41 ENE 12 20 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 45 40 ENE 12 20 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 45 40 ENE 12 20 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 46 41 E 10 18 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 49 44 E 10 18 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 53 49 E 10 18 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 57 54 E 9 17 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 60 57 E 9 17 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 62 59 E 9 17 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 64 61 ENE 11 20 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 64 60 ENE 11 20 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 63 58 ENE 11 20 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 62 57 ENE 13 21 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 60 55 ENE 13 21 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 57 52 ENE 13 21 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 54 49 ENE 11 19 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 53 48 ENE 11 19 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 52 47 ENE 11 19 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 51 46 ESE 8 13 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 50 45 ESE 8 13 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 50 45 ESE 8 13 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 50 45 E 8 13 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 49 44 E 8 13 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 49 44 E 8 13 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 49 44 E 9 16 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 48 43 E 9 16 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 48 43 E 9 16 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 48 43 E 11 19 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 52 47 E 11 19 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 57 53 E 11 19 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 61 57 E 10 17 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 65 62 E 10 17 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 68 65 E 10 17 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 69 66 ENE 9 17 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 69 65 ENE 9 17 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 68 63 ENE 9 17 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 66 61 ENE 11 18 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 64 59 ENE 11 18 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 61 56 ENE 11 18 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 58 53 ENE 9 16 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 56 51 ENE 9 16 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 55 50 ENE 9 16 1601 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 54 49 ENE 10 18 1601 2260 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst