NEWS:

Feb 16, 2021
- Problems getting data from National Weather Service began on Feb 11 impacting operation of the Soaring Predictor software.
The service seems to be working again at about 75% as of this morning, Feb 16.


Backup data is being sourced from WeatherAPI.com however, their free service is limited to 3 days. If you see a three day forecast for your favorite site, thank the WeatherAPI folks. The full 5-day forecasts are receiving input data from the National Weather service (thank them too :-).

Hourly wind gust has been added to the detail page.

RASP and Windgrams should not be impacted


See the southern California RASP Model The detail grid covers the San Diego sites, but the 4km grid covers most of southern California.

Instructional video on reading the RASP Model



Check out the WINDGRAMS


Sounding

Station:

KNKX (alt)

Date/Time:

23 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast
Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon
Site
Name
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Torrey Pines Gliderport WNW 10 0 WNW 12 0 WNW 10 0 W 9 0 WSW 9 0 SSW 9 0
Blossom Valley WSW 10 1536 W 11 1665 W 10 1795 W 9 2083 WSW 9 2748 WSW 8 3017
Horse Canyon WSW 16 11329 W 13 11841 W 12 13279
Little Black W 10 849 W 11 920 W 10 983 W 9 1082 WSW 9 1510 SW 9 1579
Marshall WSW 10 12767 SW 8 11769 WSW 8 14205
Crestline WSW 10 12777 SW 8 12370 WSW 8 13384
Mentone SW 11 715 SW 10 346 SW 9 3276
Kagel S 14 1282 S 12 833 SSW 12 600 S 14 8060 SSW 16 11288 SSW 16 10968
Lake Elsinore WSW 7 12523 W 6 12523 W 6 14349
Laguna WSW 13 9250 WSW 16 10105 W 14 11273 WSW 8 11886 E 10 12294 E 10 11886
Big Black W 12 10807 W 11 10373 W 12 12066
Otay Mesa W 10 1873 WNW 9 1938 W 10 2239
Soboba SW 11 939 W 11 1135 W 11 1277 SW 10 6907 SW 10 8772 SSW 10 8974
Henninger Flats SSW 9 111 SSW 8 0 SW 9 737
Palomar W 6 0 W 9 0 W 8 54 W 6 449 WSW 6 1536 WSW 8 2962
Thomas Mt SE 11 10707 W 11 11321 W 12 12338 SE 8 12743 ENE 10 13346 E 9 13346
Winchester SSW 13 1487 SW 12 1698 SW 11 2328 SSW 12 8402 SSW 11 9771 SSW 11 9569
Blackhawk WSW 17 7358 SW 17 10485 WNW 10 10895 ENE 10 11510 ENE 11 12527 ENE 11 12930
Ord S 20 6468 SSW 19 10123 SW 16 12437 SSW 11 14181 E 11 14767 SSW 14 15150
Warner Springs WSW 12 4186 WSW 13 7748 WSW 13 9440 SW 11 12142 WSW 11 13955 SE 10 13071

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst