NEWS:

Feb 16, 2021
- Problems getting data from National Weather Service began on Feb 11 impacting operation of the Soaring Predictor software.
The service seems to be working again at about 75% as of this morning, Feb 16.


Backup data is being sourced from WeatherAPI.com however, their free service is limited to 3 days. If you see a three day forecast for your favorite site, thank the WeatherAPI folks. The full 5-day forecasts are receiving input data from the National Weather service (thank them too :-).

Hourly wind gust has been added to the detail page.

RASP and Windgrams should not be impacted


See the southern California RASP Model The detail grid covers the San Diego sites, but the 4km grid covers most of southern California.

Instructional video on reading the RASP Model



Check out the WINDGRAMS


Sounding

Station:

KNKX (alt)

Date/Time:

24 JUL 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast
Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon
Site
Name
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Torrey Pines Gliderport WNW 10 0 WNW 10 0 WSW 9 0 W 10 0 W 10 0 W 10 0
Blossom Valley W 8 2404 W 10 5747 WSW 12 3785
Horse Canyon WNW 8 9171 WNW 11 9782 W 12 9579 W 10 5203 W 9 4373 W 8 5203
Little Black W 11 719 W 10 912 WSW 10 836 WSW 10 355 W 10 246 W 10 265
Marshall SSW 8 3614 SSW 10 4687 SSW 9 3614 SW 6 0 SW 5 0 SW 5 0
Crestline SSW 9 0 SSW 10 317 SSW 10 0 SSW 6 0 SSW 5 0 SSW 5 0
Mentone W 9 5062 WSW 10 7210 WSW 11 5434 WSW 10 1613 WSW 8 822 WSW 8 1613
Kagel SSW 11 1425 SW 13 1906 SSW 11 391 SSW 10 0 SSW 10 0 SW 10 0
Lake Elsinore WNW 10 6365 W 13 8960 WSW 12 5848 SW 13 2024 WSW 11 1237 WSW 11 1327
Laguna WNW 8 10425 W 10 11032 W 15 10425
Big Black W 10 9387 W 11 10416 WSW 12 10007
Otay Mesa WNW 11 955 WNW 11 1186 WNW 9 1054 W 10 734 W 10 476 W 10 476
Soboba E 11 6113 WNW 13 10963 SW 15 6113
Henninger Flats SW 10 1412 SSW 9 1923 SW 5 230 SSW 5 0 SSW 5 0 SW 4 0
Palomar W 8 10 W 9 265 WSW 9 10 WSW 9 0 WSW 6 0 WSW 6 0
Thomas Mt WNW 8 9633 W 11 10651 W 11 10247 W 10 9426 W 8 9222 WSW 5 9426
Winchester SW 11 2575 W 12 4754 SW 14 2575 SW 13 1468 WSW 11 1199 WSW 11 1468
Blackhawk WSW 12 8879 WSW 16 9498 SW 20 9498 WSW 17 8879 WSW 11 8255 WSW 9 8674
Ord SSW 17 10119 SSW 18 10324 SSW 19 9914 SSW 18 8984 SSW 14 4315 SSW 12 7154
Warner Springs W 11 8170 W 14 8783 W 17 8376 W 16 2641 WSW 13 1480 WSW 12 3218

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst