NEWS:

Feb 16, 2021
- Problems getting data from National Weather Service began on Feb 11 impacting operation of the Soaring Predictor software.
The service seems to be working again at about 75% as of this morning, Feb 16.


Backup data is being sourced from WeatherAPI.com however, their free service is limited to 3 days. If you see a three day forecast for your favorite site, thank the WeatherAPI folks. The full 5-day forecasts are receiving input data from the National Weather service (thank them too :-).

Hourly wind gust has been added to the detail page.

RASP and Windgrams should not be impacted


See the southern California RASP Model The detail grid covers the San Diego sites, but the 4km grid covers most of southern California.

Instructional video on reading the RASP Model



Check out the WINDGRAMS


Sounding

Station:

KNKX (alt)

Date/Time:

8 DEC 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast
Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon
Site
Name
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Torrey Pines Gliderport WSW 8 143 WNW 17 143 SE 9 143 WNW 6 143 W 6 143 WSW 9 143
Blossom Valley W 9 1790 WSW 12 0 W 8 0 E 6 1790 SW 6 1185 WSW 8 0
Horse Canyon WSW 9 1857 W 19 0 ENE 12 0 ENE 10 1502 SW 9 1103 WSW 11 0
Little Black W 9 0 W 12 0 ESE 8 0 E 6 0 W 6 0 WSW 9 0
Marshall SSW 5 2817 S 9 0 SSW 3 0
Crestline SSW 5 4217 S 9 572 SSW 3 0
Mentone SW 7 0 SSW 12 0 WSW 4 0
Kagel S 10 604 SW 17 0 NNE 19 0 NNE 14 196 SSW 14 0 S 20 0
Lake Elsinore WNW 8 1964 W 16 0 N 8 581 W 6 1964 SW 8 1629 SW 10 581
Laguna WSW 13 1046 WSW 39 0 E 12 0 ESE 8 0 SW 9 412 SW 17 0
Big Black WSW 9 343 W 17 0 SE 11 0 E 9 684 SW 9 343 SW 10 0
Otay Mesa W 8 3088 W 14 1309 SW 5 1105
Soboba W 9 208 W 13 0 ENE 8 0 ENE 10 0 SSW 9 0 SW 10 0
Henninger Flats SW 6 536 SSW 7 0 NE 4 128
Palomar W 5 0 W 12 0 W 5 0 E 9 0 SW 6 0 SW 8 0
Thomas Mt W 11 2805 W 23 0 NE 10 0 ENE 8 2366 WSW 9 2805 W 12 686
Winchester W 6 1345 W 12 0 NNW 4 0 NE 6 1142 SSW 9 732 SW 9 0
Blackhawk NW 10 1894 SW 37 0 E 6 0 ENE 6 0 WSW 4 0 SW 11 0
Ord SSW 16 1394 SSW 32 0 NE 12 0 E 8 0 S 11 0 S 19 0
Warner Springs WSW 10 427 W 14 0 SSE 10 0 ESE 9 0 SW 10 0 W 11 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst