NEWS:

Feb 16, 2021
- Problems getting data from National Weather Service began on Feb 11 impacting operation of the Soaring Predictor software.
The service seems to be working again at about 75% as of this morning, Feb 16.

Backup data is being sourced from WeatherAPI.com however, their free service is limited to 3 days. If you see a three day forecast for your favorite site, thank the WeatherAPI folks. The full 5-day forecasts are receiving input data from the National Weather service (thank them too :-).

Hourly wind gust has been added to the detail page.

RASP and Windgrams should not be impacted


See the southern California RASP Model The detail grid covers the San Diego sites, but the 4km grid covers most of southern California.

Instructional video on reading the RASP Model



Check out the WINDGRAMS


Sounding

Station:

 KNKX (alt)

Date/Time:

 30 MAY 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

 NOAA Digital Forecast
Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun
Site
Name		 Wind Above
Launch		 Wind Above
Launch		 Wind Above
Launch		 Wind Above
Launch		 Wind Above
Launch		 Wind Above
Launch
Torrey Pines Gliderport W 11 0 W 12 0 W 10 0 W 10 0 W 9 0 W 8 0
Blossom Valley W 11 2184 W 12 922 W 11 3040 W 10 4075 W 10 4590 W 10 4735
Horse Canyon W 12 2040 WNW 14 1619 W 12 2316 WNW 11 6197 WNW 11 8193 W 11 8397
Little Black W 12 0 W 13 0 W 11 0 W 10 1332 W 10 2748 W 9 2961
Marshall SW 13 1461 SW 11 1034 SSW 11 2095 SSW 10 3090 SSW 11 5108 SSW 12 5953
Crestline SSW 17 59 SSW 12 0 SSW 13 569 SSW 12 1684 SSW 12 3541 SSW 13 4441
Mentone WSW 11 2534 W 10 2048 W 10 3216 WSW 9 4179 W 10 6628 W 10 7645
Kagel SW 16 1701 SSW 14 1967 SSW 13 1967 SW 12 2863 SW 13 4437 SSW 12 4156
Lake Elsinore WSW 16 2798 WSW 16 2469 WSW 14 3026 W 11 3851 W 13 5457 WSW 13 5457
Laguna WSW 26 2321 WSW 20 748 WSW 17 2612 W 10 6520 E 11 9332 W 13 10424
Big Black W 11 1217 W 11 787 WSW 11 1780 W 10 2476 WSW 10 3985 WSW 10 4550
Otay Mesa W 11 84 W 12 84 W 12 1755 WNW 11 3403 WNW 11 3824 W 10 4025
Soboba SW 12 2108 WSW 10 0 SW 13 2991 WSW 10 3616 WSW 11 4458 SSW 13 4274
Henninger Flats SW 9 1325 SSW 9 1717 SSW 9 1878 SW 9 2760 SW 9 3091 SSW 9 3233
Palomar WSW 8 0 W 9 0 W 9 625 W 9 2121 W 8 2799 WSW 8 2799
Thomas Mt W 12 5879 W 11 3867 W 10 8641
Winchester SSW 12 2888 SW 9 1659 SSW 17 3412 SSW 11 4044 SSW 11 4893 SSW 16 5293
Blackhawk SW 18 5371 WNW 14 5371 SW 13 6687 NE 12 8443 E 13 12010 SSE 14 13016
Ord SSW 23 3196 SSW 18 2908 SSW 21 5214 SSW 17 7919 SSW 18 9153 SSW 20 9153
Warner Springs WSW 14 1212 WSW 14 612 WSW 13 1413 SW 11 4954 ESE 10 7011 SW 12 7418

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst