NEWS:

Feb 16, 2021
- Problems getting data from National Weather Service began on Feb 11 impacting operation of the Soaring Predictor software.
The service seems to be working again at about 75% as of this morning, Feb 16.


Backup data is being sourced from WeatherAPI.com however, their free service is limited to 3 days. If you see a three day forecast for your favorite site, thank the WeatherAPI folks. The full 5-day forecasts are receiving input data from the National Weather service (thank them too :-).

Hourly wind gust has been added to the detail page.

RASP and Windgrams should not be impacted


See the southern California RASP Model The detail grid covers the San Diego sites, but the 4km grid covers most of southern California.

Instructional video on reading the RASP Model



Check out the WINDGRAMS


Sounding

Station:

KNKX (alt)

Date/Time:

21 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast
Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun
Site
Name
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Torrey Pines Gliderport WNW 8 0 NW 12 0 W 9 0 W 9 0 W 9 0 W 9 0
Blossom Valley W 10 3445 W 13 6302 W 11 2085 WSW 9 1359 W 9 1230 W 10 1101
Horse Canyon ENE 16 5265 NW 13 5901 NW 13 5265 ESE 9 4789 W 9 4187 NW 10 4388
Little Black W 9 968 WNW 12 1061 W 10 903 W 9 202 W 10 0 W 10 0
Marshall NNE 16 5415 SW 10 5217 SW 9 2770 SW 8 2036 N 9 0 SW 9 0
Crestline N 12 3725 SW 11 3927 SSW 11 1065 N 9 0 SSW 9 0 SSW 9 0
Mentone W 12 6240 W 12 6041 W 10 4181 W 8 2734 N 8 1043 W 8 739
Kagel NE 24 5326 S 9 5723 SSW 16 767 SSW 16 162 SSW 14 0 SSW 16 0
Lake Elsinore WSW 13 7171 W 14 6711 WSW 16 6315 SW 10 5863 W 10 2232 W 11 2232
Laguna E 11 4211 WNW 11 4465 W 14 4084 E 10 3536 E 8 3124 NE 9 3331
Big Black E 16 5273 W 13 5673 W 13 3973 WSW 9 230 W 9 0 W 10 0
Otay Mesa W 8 7386 WNW 9 8123 W 8 6890
Soboba E 13 3148 WNW 13 4616 W 12 1181 SSW 10 789 WSW 6 397 SW 10 182
Henninger Flats NE 8 5198 SW 6 5396 SSW 9 0 SSW 10 0 SSW 9 0 SW 10 0
Palomar WSW 8 789 W 11 2831 W 9 92 WSW 8 0 WSW 6 0 W 9 0
Thomas Mt E 10 5361 WNW 10 5361 W 12 5154 E 9 4738 SE 8 4142 NW 8 4015
Winchester WSW 13 7976 WNW 15 7854 WSW 13 7328
Blackhawk E 9 3591 W 9 3948 NW 16 3591 ENE 11 3464 ENE 9 3139 NE 8 2933
Ord SE 9 4972 SSW 13 5097 S 16 4643 SSW 12 4441 SSW 13 3815 SW 11 3159
Warner Springs ESE 11 4347 WNW 11 4888 W 13 3949 SSE 11 3549 WSW 10 1757 W 9 1757

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst