NEWS:

Feb 16, 2021
- Problems getting data from National Weather Service began on Feb 11 impacting operation of the Soaring Predictor software.
The service seems to be working again at about 75% as of this morning, Feb 16.


Backup data is being sourced from WeatherAPI.com however, their free service is limited to 3 days. If you see a three day forecast for your favorite site, thank the WeatherAPI folks. The full 5-day forecasts are receiving input data from the National Weather service (thank them too :-).

Hourly wind gust has been added to the detail page.

RASP and Windgrams should not be impacted


See the southern California RASP Model The detail grid covers the San Diego sites, but the 4km grid covers most of southern California.

Instructional video on reading the RASP Model



Check out the WINDGRAMS


Sounding

Station:

KNKX (alt)

Date/Time:

2 AUG 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast
Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Site
Name
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Torrey Pines Gliderport NW 10 140 WNW 9 140 WSW 8 140 S 8 140 S 11 0 SSW 10 0
Blossom Valley W 12 3430 W 11 3430 WSW 10 2430 WSW 9 2091 SW 9 1017 SW 10 751
Horse Canyon W 13 13571 W 14 13977 W 14 13977
Little Black W 11 569 W 10 569 WSW 9 487 WSW 9 528 SSW 11 365 SSW 10 365
Marshall SW 11 8786 SW 10 9425 SSW 10 9425 SSW 10 8052 SSW 11 7296 SW 12 5831
Crestline SSW 11 7038 SSW 10 8096 SSW 12 7779 SSW 11 6275 S 11 5885 SSW 12 2639
Mentone WSW 9 2501 WSW 8 5594 SW 8 5594
Kagel S 12 524 SSW 13 1208 SSW 16 2349 SSW 16 2349 SW 14 6391 SSW 16 5307
Lake Elsinore W 17 10963 W 14 11258 WSW 13 10666 W 12 10000 SSW 12 8891 SSW 13 7772
Laguna W 11 13996 W 13 14308 W 13 13996
Big Black W 13 8416 W 12 8785 W 10 8416 W 10 7277 WSW 10 4308 SW 10 645
Otay Mesa NW 13 1381 WNW 12 1204 WNW 10 535 W 9 455 SW 10 375 SW 11 199
Soboba WNW 14 5397 WNW 12 7690 WSW 12 7690 W 11 5397 SSW 11 2197 SW 11 1517
Henninger Flats SW 12 7847 SW 10 7847 WSW 10 6309 SW 11 1609 SSW 11 593 SSW 12 247
Palomar W 9 1535 W 9 1535 W 8 864 W 8 523 SW 9 0 SW 9 0
Thomas Mt W 15 15426 W 14 16510 W 12 16510
Winchester WNW 12 10100 WNW 11 10825 SW 11 10465
Blackhawk W 9 12678 NE 9 12678 W 11 13736 SSW 17 13423 SW 14 11859 SW 13 8133
Ord S 14 10144 SSW 14 11358 SSW 18 13588 SSW 18 11358 SSW 19 9255 S 20 8343
Warner Springs WSW 13 9255 WSW 12 9834 WSW 14 9545 SW 12 9255 SW 12 8067 SW 12 6248

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst