NEWS:

June 29, 2009: This site is running the code developed by Tad Hurst.

I've done some tuning to make the estimates for Marshall, Crestline and Soboba a bit less optimistic. Why not submit your favorite site? I need site name, lat, long, LZ and launch altitudes and the zipcode.

- Alan

See the southern California RASP Model The detail grid covers the San Diego sites, but the 4km grid covers most of southern California.

Instructional video on reading the RASP Model


NEW!
Check out the WINDGRAMS


Site Forecasts

Sounding

Station:

KNKX (alt)

Date/Time:

20 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast
error getting data for coordinate: 32.9339606586,-116.481859729
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
Site
Name
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Torrey Pines Gliderport W 7 140 E 8 277 W 10 426 W 7 169 W 6 140 NE 6 277
Blossom Valley NE 5 3411 W 9 5451 E 16 5656 W 9 4895 E 20 4895 E 35 5345
Horse Canyon NE 21 1235 NE 25 2714 NE 23 4626 N 13 5400 NE 23 2494 NE 33 2388
Little Black W 9 1155 E 9 3645 W 12 3258 W 9 1674 E 14 2172 E 25 1924
Marshall N 28 1448 N 25 3169 N 25 3973 N 14 3382 NE 25 2854 N 29 2959
Crestline N 30 0 N 24 1510 N 23 1831 N 14 1725 NE 29 149 NE 31 329
Mentone NE 10 3299 NE 16 4445 E 8 4636 NE 9 4445 NE 21 3909 NE 25 4014
Kagel N 33 1603 NE 22 3062 NE 25 3672 N 9 3358 NE 18 3062 N 33 2594
Lake Elsinore N 16 4300 N 12 6605 W 13 7719 W 13 6605 N 14 6605 NE 14 5793
Big Black E 16 2469 NE 21 3264 E 21 4637 W 10 3671 NE 22 3053 E 38 1989
Otay Mesa NW 8 2939 E 10 4052 E 13 5278 W 9 3706 NE 12 3879 E 28 3879
Soboba NE 8 1663 E 17 3462 E 18 3932 SW 10 3266 E 23 2914 NE 43 2560
Henninger Flats N 30 2234 NE 13 3668 NE 3 3970 N 5 3564 NE 14 3564 N 12 3564
Palomar N 8 1596 NE 18 3691 E 14 3794 W 9 2919 E 17 2919 E 33 2919
Thomas Mt NE 21 1568 NE 21 4455 NE 16 5644 NW 12 5937 NE 25 1810 NE 26 1568
Winchester SW 3 3344 SW 3 5069 N 9 5172 SW 12 5069 NE 13 4391 NE 22 4849
Blackhawk W 9 0 E 6 900 N 6 3349 W 14 2509 NE 13 576 E 10 108
Ord NE 16 656 NE 15 2315 N 9 3046 N 7 2590 E 18 1645 E 21 1645
Warner Springs E 12 4162 E 13 5221 E 13 6115 W 10 6962 NE 21 5011 E 21 4162

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst