NEWS:

Feb 16, 2021
- Problems getting data from National Weather Service began on Feb 11 impacting operation of the Soaring Predictor software.
The service seems to be working again at about 75% as of this morning, Feb 16.

Backup data is being sourced from WeatherAPI.com however, their free service is limited to 3 days. If you see a three day forecast for your favorite site, thank the WeatherAPI folks. The full 5-day forecasts are receiving input data from the National Weather service (thank them too :-).

Hourly wind gust has been added to the detail page.

RASP and Windgrams should not be impacted


See the southern California RASP Model The detail grid covers the San Diego sites, but the 4km grid covers most of southern California.

Instructional video on reading the RASP Model



Check out the WINDGRAMS


Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time UTC:

 260911/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

 NOAA Digital Forecast
Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed
Site
Name		 Wind Above
Launch		 Wind Above
Launch		 Wind Above
Launch		 Wind Above
Launch		 Wind Above
Launch		 Wind Above
Launch
Torrey Pines Gliderport SSW 11 83 WSW 8 83 WSW 9 83 SSW 10 83 WSW 9 83 W 9 83
Blossom Valley WSW 10 2556 WSW 10 1843 WSW 9 1303 WSW 9 1111 WSW 9 980 W 8 980
Horse Canyon W 12 6858 W 10 5990 WSW 10 4170 WSW 10 3010 WSW 10 2699 SW 8 3010
Little Black SSW 11 1039 W 10 779 WSW 10 186 SW 11 143 WSW 10 96 W 10 96
Marshall SW 10 3413 S 9 3103 SSW 4 0 SSW 4 0 SSW 4 0 SW 4 0
Crestline SSW 11 0 S 11 0 SSW 5 0 SSW 5 0 SSW 5 0 SSW 4 0
Mentone WSW 10 5209 WSW 8 4214 WSW 5 1157 SW 6 913 SW 5 425 WSW 5 669
Kagel SSW 10 1439 SSW 10 0 SW 8 0 SSW 9 0 SSW 9 0 SSW 8 0
Lake Elsinore SW 14 4992 SW 10 2868 SW 9 904 SSW 10 469 SW 9 129 SW 8 242
Laguna WSW 17 6407 SW 13 5293 WSW 11 4437 WSW 10 3788 WSW 9 3146 WSW 5 3146
Big Black WSW 11 3730 WSW 11 2705 WSW 10 110 WSW 10 0 WSW 9 0 WSW 9 0
Otay Mesa SSW 9 1587 W 10 1027 W 10 436 WSW 11 334 W 10 286 W 10 286
Soboba SW 13 1675 SSW 11 953 WSW 11 365 SW 11 136 SW 11 0 WSW 10 0
Henninger Flats SW 5 3522 S 4 0 SW 4 0 SSW 4 0 SSW 4 0 SSW 3 0
Palomar W 9 463 WSW 5 0 WSW 6 0 WSW 6 0 WSW 6 0 WSW 5 0
Thomas Mt W 12 9582 W 12 8028 WSW 9 5955 WSW 6 5955 WSW 6 5416 SSW 5 5416
Winchester SSW 16 2593 SSW 11 2114 SW 11 1015 SW 13 745 SW 12 316 SW 11 565
Blackhawk SW 18 8224 SW 16 6501 W 9 5411 WNW 5 4063 WNW 9 4063 E 6 3273
Ord SSW 19 6211 S 19 4747 SW 14 2889 SSW 13 1846 SSW 14 651 SSW 12 651
Warner Springs WSW 17 5358 SW 11 3448 WSW 14 2046 WSW 13 978 SW 13 0 SW 11 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst