NEWS:

Feb 16, 2021
- Problems getting data from National Weather Service began on Feb 11 impacting operation of the Soaring Predictor software.
The service seems to be working again at about 75% as of this morning, Feb 16.


Backup data is being sourced from WeatherAPI.com however, their free service is limited to 3 days. If you see a three day forecast for your favorite site, thank the WeatherAPI folks. The full 5-day forecasts are receiving input data from the National Weather service (thank them too :-).

Hourly wind gust has been added to the detail page.

RASP and Windgrams should not be impacted


See the southern California RASP Model The detail grid covers the San Diego sites, but the 4km grid covers most of southern California.

Instructional video on reading the RASP Model



Check out the WINDGRAMS


Sounding

Station:

KNKX (alt)

Date/Time:

26 SEP 2022

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast
Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Site
Name
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Torrey Pines Gliderport WNW 10 0 WNW 8 0 W 6 0 SSW 8 0 W 8 0 W 8 0
Blossom Valley W 10 2248 W 11 2248 W 9 1981 WSW 9 1442 WSW 9 1163 W 9 501
Horse Canyon E 10 10477 NW 10 10276 SSE 6 9667 W 9 9464 W 10 7010 W 9 3871
Little Black W 10 521 W 10 660 W 8 729 WSW 8 452 W 8 244 W 8 0
Marshall W 9 13880 W 13 14272 WSW 14 14468
Crestline W 9 12562 W 13 12956 WSW 14 13154
Mentone W 12 9980 WSW 11 10385 W 11 9775 W 10 6942 W 9 2583 W 8 593
Kagel SW 10 13577 SW 12 13577 SSW 11 13381
Lake Elsinore W 14 11060 WSW 14 10859 WSW 12 10455 W 12 9637 WSW 11 1623 WSW 10 790
Laguna ENE 11 9101 ENE 10 8685 E 9 8270 W 9 8270 W 10 7321 W 8 6503
Big Black W 12 8812 WSW 12 9044 W 10 8320 WSW 10 3338 WSW 10 0 WSW 9 0
Otay Mesa W 9 8207 W 10 11105 W 10 11105
Soboba WNW 12 1621 S 10 4243 W 10 1621 SW 10 725 SW 10 443 SSW 10 349
Henninger Flats SW 7 10696 SW 8 11097 SW 8 11296
Palomar W 11 837 W 13 6705 WSW 13 6705
Thomas Mt ENE 9 9733 ESE 6 9936 ESE 8 9119 W 9 8705 W 9 8290 WNW 8 7873
Winchester W 12 11310 W 12 12078 SW 15 12078
Blackhawk NNE 9 8413 E 13 8413 WSW 9 7578 NNE 10 7578 SSW 9 7578 N 8 6727
Ord N 10 10372 SE 10 10372 SSW 12 9454 SSW 14 8219 SSW 14 5211 SSW 13 4013
Warner Springs WNW 8 10323 E 7 9727 ESE 9 10125

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst