Detailed Predictions for: Thomas Mt
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.5999, -116.65385, 5900
LZ Altitude (f): 4550
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

18 MAY 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 45 45 NW 16 26 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 45 45 NW 18 28 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 44 44 NW 17 27 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 44 44 NW 16 26 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 44 44 NW 13 23 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 46 46 NW 12 20 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 49 49 NW 10 17 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 54 54 NW 8 14 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 59 61 NW 3 9 5537 5900 0 Blue 1
9 AM Tue 64 67 W 3 8 8211 7320 1420 Blue 7
10 AM Tue 68 74 WSW 3 8 10446 9312 3412 Blue 14
11 AM Tue 71 78 W 3 8 16245 11448 5548 White 18
12 Noon Tue 73 82 WNW 4 9 17071 16727 10827 White 22
1 PM Tue 73 82 W 6 13 17071 16727 10827 White 22
2 PM Tue 74 82 WNW 10 18 17071 16727 10827 White 22
3 PM Tue 72 78 WNW 11 18 16245 11448 5548 White 18
4 PM Tue 70 74 WNW 11 19 10446 9312 3412 Blue 14
5 PM Tue 67 69 WNW 10 18 8784 7898 1998 Blue 9
6 PM Tue 64 64 WNW 10 17 7339 5900 0 Blue 4
7 PM Tue 60 60 NW 10 17 5393 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 58 58 NW 10 17 5147 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 56 56 NW 10 18 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 56 56 NW 11 18 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 56 56 NW 11 19 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 56 56 NW 12 20 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 55 55 NW 12 20 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 54 54 NW 12 21 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 51 51 NW 12 21 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 49 49 NW 12 21 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 48 48 NW 13 21 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 51 51 NW 13 21 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 57 57 NW 13 23 5024 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 62 63 NW 13 23 5856 5900 0 Blue 3
9 AM Wed 66 69 NW 14 24 8784 7898 1998 Blue 9
10 AM Wed 68 73 WNW 14 24 9965 9033 3133 Blue 13
11 AM Wed 70 78 WNW 14 25 16245 11448 5548 White 18
12 Noon Wed 72 81 WNW 14 25 16867 15768 9868 White 21
1 PM Wed 73 82 WNW 14 24 17071 16727 10827 White 22
2 PM Wed 73 81 WNW 14 24 16867 15768 9868 White 21
3 PM Wed 74 80 WNW 13 23 16660 14658 8758 White 20
4 PM Wed 72 76 WNW 13 21 13709 9916 4016 Blue 16
5 PM Wed 70 72 WNW 12 20 9631 8752 2852 Blue 12
6 PM Wed 66 66 WNW 11 19 7922 5900 0 Blue 6
7 PM Wed 61 61 WNW 11 19 5537 5900 0 Blue 1
8 PM Wed 58 58 WNW 11 18 5147 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 55 55 NW 10 18 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 54 54 NW 10 18 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 53 53 NNW 10 17 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 52 52 NW 10 17 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 50 50 NW 9 17 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 47 47 NW 9 17 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 44 44 WNW 10 18 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 42 42 W 11 19 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 42 42 W 12 20 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 44 44 WSW 12 20 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 47 47 WSW 11 19 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 52 53 WSW 11 19 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 56 59 WSW 10 18 5270 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 59 64 W 10 17 7339 5900 0 Blue 4
11 AM Thu 62 69 W 10 17 8784 7898 1998 Blue 9
12 Noon Thu 62 70 W 11 19 9067 8185 2285 Blue 10
1 PM Thu 63 71 WSW 13 23 9348 8469 2569 Blue 11
2 PM Thu 62 69 WSW 14 25 8784 7898 1998 Blue 9
3 PM Thu 60 66 WSW 16 25 7922 5900 0 Blue 6
4 PM Thu 57 61 WSW 16 25 5537 5900 0 Blue 1
5 PM Thu 54 56 WSW 14 24 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 50 50 W 13 23 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 46 46 W 12 20 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 43 43 W 11 19 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 41 41 W 12 20 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 40 40 W 13 21 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 39 39 W 14 24 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 38 38 W 14 24 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 37 37 WSW 13 23 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 36 36 WSW 13 21 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 34 34 WSW 12 20 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 33 33 W 11 19 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 33 33 W 11 18 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 35 35 W 11 18 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 38 38 W 11 18 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 42 43 W 10 17 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 46 48 W 10 17 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 50 54 W 10 17 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 53 61 W 16 25 5537 5900 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Fri 54 63 W 16 25 5856 5900 0 Blue 3
1 PM Fri 54 63 W 16 25 5856 5900 0 Blue 3
2 PM Fri 55 63 W 16 25 5856 5900 0 Blue 3
3 PM Fri 54 60 W 16 25 5393 5900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 53 57 W 16 25 5024 5900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 50 52 W 17 27 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 46 46 W 17 27 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 41 41 W 17 27 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 37 37 W 13 21 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 34 34 W 13 21 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 33 33 W 13 21 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 32 32 W 10 17 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 32 32 W 10 17 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 32 32 W 10 17 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 32 32 W 9 16 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 31 31 W 9 16 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 31 31 W 9 16 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 31 31 W 8 14 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 32 32 W 8 14 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 33 33 W 8 14 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 36 36 W 6 12 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 41 42 W 6 12 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 46 48 W 6 12 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 52 59 WNW 8 14 5270 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 55 63 WNW 8 14 5856 5900 0 Blue 3
1 PM Sat 58 66 WNW 8 14 7922 5900 0 Blue 6
2 PM Sat 60 68 W 10 17 8498 7610 1710 Blue 8
3 PM Sat 61 67 W 10 17 8211 7320 1420 Blue 7
4 PM Sat 60 64 W 10 17 7339 5900 0 Blue 4
5 PM Sat 58 60 W 11 18 5393 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 52 52 W 11 18 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 44 44 W 11 18 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 38 38 WNW 9 17 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 36 36 WNW 9 17 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 36 36 WNW 9 17 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 38 38 WNW 8 14 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 39 39 WNW 8 14 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 40 40 WNW 8 14 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 40 40 NW 9 16 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 40 40 NW 9 16 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 39 39 NW 9 16 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 39 39 NNW 9 16 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 41 41 NNW 9 16 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 45 45 NNW 9 16 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 49 50 NNE 8 13 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 54 57 NNE 8 13 5024 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 58 63 NNE 8 13 5856 5900 0 Blue 3
11 AM Sun 62 69 ENE 5 10 8784 7898 1998 Blue 9
12 Noon Sun 65 73 ENE 5 10 9965 9033 3133 Blue 13
1 PM Sun 67 76 ENE 5 10 13709 9916 4016 Blue 16
2 PM Sun 68 76 WNW 5 11 13709 9916 4016 Blue 16
3 PM Sun 68 74 WNW 5 11 10446 9312 3412 Blue 14
4 PM Sun 69 73 WNW 5 11 9965 9033 3133 Blue 13
5 PM Sun 66 68 WNW 8 14 8498 7610 1710 Blue 8
6 PM Sun 60 60 WNW 8 14 5393 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 53 53 WNW 8 14 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 48 48 WNW 6 12 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 48 48 WNW 6 12 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 50 50 WNW 6 12 4921 5900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst