Detailed Predictions for: Thomas Mt
Launch Altitude (f): 5900
LZ Altitude (f): 4550
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

2 DEC 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 34 34 N 7 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 31 31 N 7 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 29 29 N 6 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 30 30 N 5 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 37 37 N 5 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 47 48 NE 5 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 54 56 NE 9 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 55 57 NE 9 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 55 57 NE 9 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 53 55 NE 12 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 51 52 NE 12 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 49 49 NE 10 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 47 47 NE 10 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 44 44 NE 10 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 41 41 NE 10 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 39 39 NE 10 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 36 36 NE 10 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 34 34 NE 12 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 32 32 NE 12 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 30 30 NE 12 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 28 28 NE 12 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 27 27 NE 12 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 26 26 NE 12 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 25 25 NE 12 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 25 25 NE 13 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 24 24 NE 16 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 24 24 NE 20 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 25 25 NE 23 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 28 28 NE 22 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 33 34 NE 21 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 38 40 NE 17 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 42 44 NE 16 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 45 47 NE 16 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 46 48 NE 14 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 46 47 NE 13 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 44 44 NE 10 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 39 39 NE 8 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 35 35 NE 8 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 32 32 NE 8 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 31 31 NE 8 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 33 33 NE 9 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 36 36 NE 10 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 39 39 NE 12 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 40 40 NE 12 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 40 40 NE 10 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 39 39 NE 12 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 38 38 NE 13 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 36 36 NE 14 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 32 32 NE 15 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 26 26 NE 15 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 24 24 NE 15 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 26 26 NE 15 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 32 32 NE 16 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 40 41 NE 18 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 48 50 NE 20 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 52 54 NE 18 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 54 56 NE 16 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 54 56 NE 15 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 55 56 NE 13 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 54 54 NE 12 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 53 53 NE 10 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 49 49 NE 10 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 43 43 NE 12 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 37 37 NE 12 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 31 31 NE 12 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 27 27 NE 10 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 26 26 N 9 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 29 29 NE 9 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 33 33 NE 9 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 36 36 NE 9 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 37 37 NE 9 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 36 36 NE 8 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 35 35 NE 8 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 34 34 NE 8 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 35 35 NE 8 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 37 37 NE 8 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 42 42 NE 8 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 47 48 NE 8 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 52 54 E 9 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 56 58 E 9 5247 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 59 61 E 9 6300 5900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 60 62 E 7 6643 5900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 59 60 E 7 5952 5900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 59 59 E 7 5602 5900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 56 56 E 6 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 51 51 E 6 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 45 45 E 6 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 40 40 NE 5 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 37 37 NE 5 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 36 36 NE 5 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 36 36 NE 5 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 36 36 NE 5 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 37 37 NE 5 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 36 36 N 3 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 34 34 N 3 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 31 31 N 3 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 28 28 NE 5 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 27 27 NE 5 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 27 27 NE 5 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 30 30 NE 7 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 36 36 NE 7 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 44 45 NE 7 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 51 53 NE 9 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 56 58 NE 9 5247 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 58 60 NE 9 5952 5900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 58 60 NE 9 5952 5900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 58 59 NE 9 5602 5900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 55 55 NE 9 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 51 51 NE 7 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 47 47 NE 7 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 42 42 NE 7 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 38 38 NE 8 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 35 35 NE 8 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 33 33 NE 8 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 31 31 NE 8 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 30 30 NE 8 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 30 30 NE 8 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 30 30 NE 9 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 32 32 NE 9 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 33 33 NE 9 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 33 33 NE 10 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 30 30 NE 10 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 28 28 NE 10 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 29 29 NE 8 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 35 35 NE 8 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 44 45 NE 8 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 52 54 E 9 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 57 59 E 9 5602 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 58 60 E 9 5952 5900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 59 61 E 10 6300 5900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 57 58 E 10 5247 5900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 55 55 E 10 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 51 51 E 9 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 47 47 E 9 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 43 43 E 9 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 40 40 NE 8 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 39 39 NE 8 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 39 39 NE 8 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 38 38 NE 9 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 38 38 NE 9 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 36 36 NE 9 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 35 35 NE 12 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 33 33 NE 12 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 31 31 NE 12 5013 5900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst