Detailed Predictions for: Thomas Mt
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.5999, -116.65385, 5900
LZ Altitude (f): 4550
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

2 AUG 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Mon 75 75 NW 4 8 7731 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 73 73 NW 3 8 5305 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 70 70 NW 3 8 5305 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 70 70 NW 3 6 5305 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 70 70 NW 2 5 5305 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 70 70 NW 2 4 5305 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 73 73 NW 2 4 5305 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 76 76 WNW 2 3 9150 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 79 80 WNW 2 3 11967 10172 4272 Blue 3
9 AM Mon 83 86 WNW 3 4 14063 13043 7143 Blue 8
10 AM Mon 86 91 WNW 3 4 18150 14592 8692 Blue 13
11 AM Mon 89 96 W 4 5 20052 18805 12905 Blue 18
12 Noon Mon 91 99 W 7 8 21831 19902 14002 White 21
1 PM Mon 92 101 W 10 11 22221 20522 14622 White 23
2 PM Mon 94 102 WNW 13 15 22416 21326 15426 White 24
3 PM Mon 93 100 W 13 15 22027 20214 14314 White 22
4 PM Mon 91 96 W 14 16 20052 18805 12905 Blue 18
5 PM Mon 90 93 W 15 17 18984 16183 10283 Blue 15
6 PM Mon 89 90 W 12 15 16820 14288 8388 Blue 12
7 PM Mon 88 88 W 9 14 14679 13672 7772 Blue 10
8 PM Mon 87 87 W 6 13 14372 13359 7459 Blue 9
9 PM Mon 85 85 WNW 5 11 13751 12665 6765 Blue 7
10 PM Mon 83 83 NW 4 10 13118 11891 5991 Blue 5
11 PM Mon 81 81 NW 4 8 12361 11093 5193 Blue 4
12 Midnight Tue 78 78 NW 3 7 11160 7642 1742 Blue 1
1 AM Tue 75 75 NW 2 6 7731 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 72 72 NW 2 4 5305 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 71 71 NW 2 4 5305 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 71 71 NW 2 4 5305 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 70 70 NW 2 5 5305 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 74 74 NW 2 4 5744 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 78 78 WNW 2 4 11160 7642 1742 Blue 1
8 AM Tue 82 83 WNW 2 4 13118 11891 5991 Blue 5
9 AM Tue 85 88 WNW 4 5 14679 13672 7772 Blue 10
10 AM Tue 88 93 WNW 5 6 18984 16183 10283 Blue 15
11 AM Tue 90 97 W 6 7 20366 19208 13308 Blue 19
12 Noon Tue 92 100 W 9 10 22027 20214 14314 White 22
1 PM Tue 93 102 W 11 13 22416 21326 15426 White 24
2 PM Tue 95 103 W 14 16 22608 22410 16510 White 25
3 PM Tue 94 101 W 14 16 22221 20522 14622 White 23
4 PM Tue 93 98 W 13 15 20700 19588 13688 Blue 20
5 PM Tue 91 94 W 13 15 19389 17755 11855 Blue 16
6 PM Tue 90 91 W 11 14 18150 14592 8692 Blue 13
7 PM Tue 89 89 W 8 13 14983 13981 8081 Blue 11
8 PM Tue 88 88 W 6 12 14679 13672 7772 Blue 10
9 PM Tue 87 87 WNW 5 10 14372 13359 7459 Blue 9
10 PM Tue 86 86 WNW 4 8 14063 13043 7143 Blue 8
11 PM Tue 84 84 NW 3 6 13436 12281 6381 Blue 6
12 Midnight Wed 80 80 WNW 3 6 11967 10172 4272 Blue 3
1 AM Wed 76 76 WNW 3 6 9150 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 72 72 WNW 2 6 5305 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 71 71 WNW 2 5 5305 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 71 71 WNW 2 5 5305 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 70 70 WNW 2 5 5305 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 74 74 WNW 2 5 5744 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 78 78 WNW 2 4 11160 7642 1742 Blue 1
8 AM Wed 81 82 W 3 4 12749 11495 5595 Blue 5
9 AM Wed 84 87 W 4 5 14372 13359 7459 Blue 9
10 AM Wed 88 93 W 5 6 18984 16183 10283 Blue 15
11 AM Wed 91 98 W 7 8 20700 19588 13688 Blue 20
12 Noon Wed 92 100 W 8 10 22027 20214 14314 White 22
1 PM Wed 94 103 W 10 12 22608 22410 16510 White 25
2 PM Wed 95 103 W 12 14 22608 22410 16510 White 25
3 PM Wed 94 101 W 11 13 22221 20522 14622 White 23
4 PM Wed 92 97 W 11 13 20366 19208 13308 Blue 19
5 PM Wed 91 94 W 11 12 19389 17755 11855 Blue 16
6 PM Wed 89 90 W 9 12 16820 14288 8388 Blue 12
7 PM Wed 86 86 W 7 12 14063 13043 7143 Blue 8
8 PM Wed 84 84 W 5 12 13436 12281 6381 Blue 6
9 PM Wed 82 82 W 4 10 12749 11495 5595 Blue 5
10 PM Wed 80 80 W 3 7 11967 10172 4272 Blue 3
11 PM Wed 78 78 W 2 5 11160 7642 1742 Blue 1

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst