Detailed Predictions for: Thomas Mt
Launch Altitude (f): 5900
LZ Altitude (f): 4550
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

18 NOV 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Mon 38 38 E 7 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 39 39 E 7 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 41 41 E 7 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 46 46 E 6 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 53 53 E 6 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 62 63 E 6 5263 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 69 71 E 6 9241 8665 2765 Blue 8
11 AM Mon 73 75 E 6 9810 9466 3566 Blue 12
12 Noon Mon 74 76 E 6 9920 9576 3676 Blue 13
1 PM Mon 75 77 SE 6 10030 9685 3785 Blue 14
2 PM Mon 73 74 SE 6 9701 9206 3306 Blue 11
3 PM Mon 70 70 SE 6 8959 8028 2128 Blue 7
4 PM Mon 65 65 SE 5 7098 5900 0 Blue 2
5 PM Mon 60 60 SE 3 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 54 54 SE 3 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 50 50 E 1 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 47 47 NW 2 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 46 46 W 2 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 45 45 SW 2 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 44 44 SW 2 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 42 42 S 2 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 41 41 SW 2 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 40 40 S 2 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 40 40 S 3 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 39 39 SW 2 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 39 39 SW 2 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 40 40 SW 2 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 44 44 S 3 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 53 53 SW 5 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 62 63 SW 7 5263 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 67 68 SW 8 8678 7075 1175 Blue 5
11 AM Tue 67 68 SW 9 8678 7075 1175 Blue 5
12 Noon Tue 67 68 W 10 8678 7075 1175 Blue 5
1 PM Tue 64 65 W 12 7098 5900 0 Blue 2
2 PM Tue 61 61 W 12 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 58 58 W 12 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 56 56 W 12 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 55 55 W 13 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 54 54 W 13 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 53 53 W 13 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 51 51 W 13 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 49 49 SW 13 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 47 47 SW 13 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 46 46 SW 14 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 45 45 SW 15 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 44 44 SW 16 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 43 43 SW 16 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 42 42 SW 16 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 40 40 SW 16 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 38 38 W 14 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 36 36 W 13 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 34 34 W 12 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 34 34 W 12 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 36 36 SW 12 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 39 39 SW 13 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 41 41 SW 13 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 43 43 W 14 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 42 42 W 14 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 42 42 W 15 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 40 40 SW 15 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 38 38 SW 15 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 37 37 SW 14 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 36 36 W 13 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 34 34 W 12 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 32 32 W 12 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 29 29 W 10 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 29 29 W 10 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 31 31 W 10 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 35 35 W 12 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 37 37 SW 12 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 38 38 W 10 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 36 36 W 9 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 35 35 W 9 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 34 34 W 9 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 34 34 W 9 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 34 34 W 7 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 34 34 W 7 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 34 34 W 7 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 35 36 S 7 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 38 39 S 7 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 42 43 S 7 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 44 45 S 9 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 44 45 S 9 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 42 42 S 9 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 38 38 S 5 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 36 36 S 5 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 34 34 S 5 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 34 34 NE 6 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 35 35 NE 6 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 35 35 NE 6 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 35 35 NE 8 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 34 34 NE 8 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 32 32 NE 8 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 31 31 NE 12 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 30 30 NE 12 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 30 30 NE 12 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 30 30 NE 12 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 29 29 NE 12 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 28 28 NE 12 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 29 29 NE 12 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 33 33 NE 12 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 39 40 NE 12 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 44 46 NE 13 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 48 50 NE 13 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 50 52 NE 13 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 52 54 E 13 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 52 53 E 13 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 53 53 E 13 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 51 51 E 13 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 47 47 E 13 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 43 43 E 13 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 39 39 E 13 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 38 38 E 13 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 38 38 E 13 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 37 37 E 14 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 37 37 E 14 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 36 36 E 14 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 34 34 E 13 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 33 33 E 13 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 32 32 E 13 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 30 30 E 13 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 29 29 E 13 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 28 28 E 13 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 30 30 NE 14 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 34 34 NE 14 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 40 41 NE 14 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 46 47 E 13 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 52 54 E 13 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 55 57 E 13 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 57 59 E 12 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 56 57 E 12 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 55 55 E 12 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 52 52 E 9 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 47 47 E 9 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 42 42 E 9 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 39 39 E 9 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 36 36 E 9 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 35 35 E 9 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 34 34 E 7 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 33 33 E 7 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 32 32 E 7 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 32 32 E 5 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 33 33 E 5 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 34 34 E 5 4984 5900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst