Detailed Predictions for: Torrey Pines Gliderport
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 32.8903198191, -117.251856742, 300
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

23 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 62 42 NW 5 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 62 42 NW 4 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 62 42 NW 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 62 42 NW 5 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 63 43 NW 5 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 64 44 NW 5 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 65 45 NNW 5 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 65 45 NNW 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 66 46 NNW 8 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 67 47 NW 8 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 68 49 WNW 8 14 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 67 51 WNW 9 16 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 67 52 WNW 9 16 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 68 53 WNW 9 16 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 67 51 WNW 10 17 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 67 51 WNW 10 18 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 66 48 WNW 10 18 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 66 47 WNW 9 17 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 65 45 WNW 9 16 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 64 44 WNW 9 16 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 64 44 WNW 8 14 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 64 44 WNW 6 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 64 44 NW 5 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 64 44 NW 5 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 64 44 NW 4 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 64 44 NNW 5 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 63 43 NNW 5 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 62 42 NNW 5 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 61 41 NNW 5 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 61 41 NNW 5 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 61 41 NNW 5 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 62 42 NW 5 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 62 42 NW 5 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 63 43 NW 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 64 44 WNW 8 14 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 65 49 WNW 9 17 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 64 49 WNW 10 18 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 64 49 WNW 11 19 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 65 50 WNW 12 20 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 65 49 WNW 12 20 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 64 47 WNW 11 19 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 64 44 WNW 11 18 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 64 44 NW 10 17 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 63 43 NW 9 16 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 63 43 NW 8 14 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 62 42 NW 6 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 62 42 NW 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 62 42 NW 5 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 62 42 NW 5 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 62 42 NNW 4 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 61 41 NNW 4 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 61 41 NNW 4 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 60 40 NNW 4 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 60 40 NNW 4 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 61 41 NNW 4 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 62 42 NW 4 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 63 43 NW 5 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 64 44 NW 5 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 65 45 WNW 6 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 65 49 WNW 8 14 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 66 50 WNW 9 16 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 66 51 WNW 10 17 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 66 50 WNW 10 17 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 65 48 WNW 10 17 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 66 48 WNW 10 17 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 66 48 WNW 9 16 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 65 45 WNW 9 14 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 64 44 WNW 8 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 64 44 WNW 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 64 44 WNW 5 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 64 44 WNW 4 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 64 44 WNW 4 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 64 44 WNW 4 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 63 43 WNW 3 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 62 42 WNW 3 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 61 41 WNW 3 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 60 40 WNW 2 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 60 40 WNW 2 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 61 41 WNW 2 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 62 42 WNW 2 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 63 43 WNW 3 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 64 45 WNW 3 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 66 48 WNW 3 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 67 52 W 8 14 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 67 53 W 8 14 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 68 54 W 8 14 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 68 54 W 9 16 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 67 52 W 9 16 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 68 51 W 9 16 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 67 49 W 8 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 67 48 W 8 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 66 46 W 8 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 64 44 W 4 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 64 44 W 4 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 63 43 W 4 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 63 43 WSW 3 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 63 43 WSW 3 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 62 42 WSW 3 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 62 42 S 2 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 62 42 S 2 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 61 41 S 2 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 61 41 SSW 2 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 62 42 SSW 2 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 63 43 SSW 2 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 64 44 SW 3 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 66 46 SW 3 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 68 49 SW 3 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 70 56 SW 6 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 71 58 SW 6 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 71 58 SW 6 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 71 57 WSW 9 16 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 70 55 WSW 9 16 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 71 55 WSW 9 16 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 70 52 SW 6 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 69 50 SW 6 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 68 48 SW 6 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 66 46 S 5 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 66 46 S 5 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 65 45 S 5 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 65 45 S 4 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 64 44 S 4 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 64 44 S 4 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 63 43 SSW 3 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 62 42 SSW 3 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 62 42 SSW 3 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 62 42 S 2 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 63 43 S 2 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 64 44 S 2 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 65 45 S 3 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 67 47 S 3 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 69 50 S 3 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 71 57 SSW 8 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 72 59 SSW 8 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 71 58 SSW 8 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 72 59 SSW 9 16 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 71 57 SSW 9 16 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 70 54 SSW 9 16 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 70 52 SSW 6 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 69 50 SSW 6 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 68 48 SSW 6 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 67 47 S 4 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 67 47 S 4 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 66 46 S 4 10 0 300 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst