Detailed Predictions for: Torrey Pines Gliderport
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 32.8903198191, -117.251856742, 300
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 5 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Tue 56 36 NW 2 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 56 36 E 2 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 56 36 ESE 2 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 55 35 ESE 2 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 54 34 ESE 2 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 55 35 ENE 1 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 55 35 N 1 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 56 36 S 2 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 60 40 SSW 2 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 64 45 S 2 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 67 49 WSW 3 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 68 50 WSW 3 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 69 52 W 4 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 70 52 W 5 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 68 49 WNW 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 68 48 WNW 5 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 67 47 NNW 4 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 64 44 NNW 3 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 62 42 N 2 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 61 41 N 1 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 60 40 NNE 1 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 60 40 E 1 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 59 39 SE 2 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 58 38 E 2 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 58 38 NNE 2 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 57 37 NNW 2 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 56 36 N 2 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 56 36 ENE 1 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 55 35 E 1 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 55 35 ESE 1 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 54 34 SE 1 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 55 35 SE 1 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 58 38 SSE 2 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 62 43 SSW 2 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 65 46 SW 3 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 66 48 SW 4 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 67 49 W 5 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 67 48 W 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 66 47 W 5 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 66 46 W 4 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 64 44 WNW 3 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 62 42 W 2 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 60 40 W 2 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 59 39 W 2 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 58 38 WNW 2 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 57 37 NW 2 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 57 37 NNW 2 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 56 36 WNW 1 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 56 36 SSW 1 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 56 36 S 1 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 55 35 S 2 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 55 35 WSW 3 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 54 34 W 3 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 54 34 W 4 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 54 34 WSW 4 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 55 35 WSW 4 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 57 37 SW 4 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 59 39 SSW 5 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 60 41 SSW 5 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 62 43 SSW 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 62 43 SW 8 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 62 43 SW 8 14 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 62 43 SW 8 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 61 41 W 6 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 60 40 W 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 60 40 WNW 5 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 58 38 NNW 4 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 58 38 N 4 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 57 37 NW 3 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 56 36 SW 3 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 56 36 S 3 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 56 36 S 4 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 56 36 S 5 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 56 36 S 5 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 55 35 S 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 54 34 S 6 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 53 33 S 8 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 53 33 S 8 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 52 32 S 8 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 53 33 SSE 8 14 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 55 35 SSE 8 14 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 58 38 SSE 8 14 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 61 43 SE 5 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 62 44 SE 5 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 63 46 SE 5 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 63 45 NW 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 63 44 NW 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 63 43 NW 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 62 42 NNW 9 16 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 60 40 NNW 9 16 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 59 39 NNW 9 16 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 57 37 NNW 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 56 36 NNW 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 56 36 NNW 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 55 35 SW 4 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 54 34 SW 4 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 54 34 SW 4 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 53 33 S 5 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 53 33 S 5 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 53 33 S 5 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 52 32 WSW 4 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 52 32 WSW 4 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 52 32 WSW 4 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 53 33 SSE 4 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 56 36 SSE 4 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 60 41 SSE 4 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 64 46 S 4 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 66 48 S 4 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 67 49 S 4 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 67 49 NW 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 67 48 NW 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 66 46 NW 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 65 45 NNW 10 17 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 63 43 NNW 10 17 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 62 42 NNW 10 17 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 60 40 N 10 18 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 59 39 N 10 18 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 58 38 N 10 18 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 57 37 ESE 5 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 56 36 ESE 5 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 55 35 ESE 5 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 55 35 SSE 5 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 54 34 SSE 5 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 53 33 SSE 5 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 53 33 NE 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 52 32 NE 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 52 32 NE 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 54 34 W 4 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 57 37 W 4 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 61 42 W 4 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 64 45 S 3 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 66 48 S 3 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 67 49 S 3 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 67 49 NW 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 67 48 NW 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 66 46 NW 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 65 45 NW 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 63 43 NW 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 61 41 NW 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 60 40 N 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 58 38 N 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 58 38 N 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 57 37 N 3 8 0 300 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst