Detailed Predictions for: Torrey Pines Gliderport
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 32.8903198191, -117.251856742, 300
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

21 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 65 45 W 1 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 64 44 NW 1 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 64 44 NNE 1 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 64 44 NNE 2 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 64 44 N 2 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 63 43 N 3 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 63 43 N 3 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 64 44 NNW 3 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 66 46 NNW 3 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 68 49 NW 4 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 70 52 WNW 5 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 72 57 WNW 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 72 58 W 6 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 72 58 WNW 8 14 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 73 58 WNW 8 14 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 73 57 WNW 6 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 72 54 WNW 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 71 52 WNW 5 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 71 51 NW 5 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 69 49 NNW 4 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 68 48 NNW 4 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 68 48 NNW 5 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 68 48 NNW 5 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 67 47 NNW 5 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 67 47 NNW 5 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 66 46 NNW 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 66 46 NNW 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 66 46 NNW 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 66 46 NNW 6 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 65 45 NNW 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 65 45 NNW 5 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 65 45 NNW 5 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 67 47 NNW 5 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 69 50 NNW 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 70 52 NW 8 14 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 72 56 NW 10 17 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 74 59 NW 11 19 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 74 60 NW 12 20 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 73 58 NW 12 20 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 73 57 NW 11 20 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 74 56 NW 11 19 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 72 53 NW 10 17 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 71 51 NW 8 14 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 69 49 NNW 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 68 48 NNW 5 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 68 48 NNW 4 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 68 48 NW 4 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 67 47 NW 3 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 68 48 WNW 3 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 68 48 W 3 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 67 47 WSW 2 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 67 47 W 2 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 66 46 W 2 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 66 46 WNW 2 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 66 46 WNW 2 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 66 46 NW 2 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 67 47 NW 2 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 69 50 WNW 3 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 71 53 W 4 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 72 56 W 5 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 74 59 W 6 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 74 59 W 8 14 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 73 58 W 9 16 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 74 58 W 9 16 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 74 56 WNW 8 14 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 72 53 WNW 8 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 70 50 WNW 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 67 47 WNW 5 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 66 46 WNW 4 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 66 46 NW 4 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 66 46 NW 3 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 65 45 NW 3 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 66 46 WNW 3 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 65 45 W 3 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 65 45 WSW 3 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 64 44 W 2 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 63 43 WNW 2 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 63 43 NW 2 4 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 63 43 NW 2 4 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 63 43 NW 2 4 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 65 45 N 3 4 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 67 47 N 3 4 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 68 49 N 3 4 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 70 54 W 6 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 72 57 W 6 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 72 57 W 6 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 71 56 W 9 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 71 55 W 9 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 72 54 W 9 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 70 51 WNW 8 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 69 49 WNW 8 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 66 46 WNW 8 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 66 46 WNW 5 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 65 45 WNW 5 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 65 45 WNW 5 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 65 45 WNW 4 4 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 65 45 WNW 4 4 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 65 45 WNW 4 4 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 64 44 NW 4 4 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 64 44 NW 4 4 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 63 43 NW 4 4 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 63 43 NNW 3 4 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 63 43 NNW 3 4 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 63 43 NNW 3 4 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 64 44 NNW 4 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 66 46 NNW 4 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 67 47 NNW 4 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 68 52 WNW 6 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 70 55 WNW 6 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 70 55 WNW 6 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 69 53 W 9 14 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 69 52 W 9 14 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 70 52 W 9 14 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 69 50 WNW 9 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 68 48 WNW 9 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 66 46 WNW 9 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 65 45 WNW 5 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 65 45 WNW 5 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 65 45 WNW 5 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 64 44 NW 4 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 65 45 NW 4 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 64 44 NW 4 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 64 44 WNW 4 4 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 64 44 WNW 4 4 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 63 43 WNW 4 4 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 63 43 NW 3 4 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 63 43 NW 3 4 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 63 43 NW 3 4 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 64 44 NNW 4 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 65 45 NNW 4 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 67 47 NNW 4 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 68 52 W 8 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 69 54 W 8 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 69 54 W 8 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 68 52 W 9 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 68 51 W 9 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 69 51 W 9 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 68 48 W 9 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 67 47 W 9 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 65 45 W 9 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 65 45 WNW 5 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 65 45 WNW 5 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 64 44 WNW 5 8 0 300 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst