Detailed Predictions for: Warner Springs
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.2845028, -116.6696569, 5130
LZ Altitude (f): 3130
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

18 MAY 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 53 53 W 12 25 3649 5130 0 White 0
1 AM Tue 49 49 W 12 25 2666 5130 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 45 45 W 12 25 2605 5130 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 46 46 W 12 25 2605 5130 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 48 48 W 11 24 2605 5130 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 50 50 W 11 23 2981 5130 0 White 0
6 AM Tue 52 52 W 10 21 3427 5130 0 White 0
7 AM Tue 54 54 W 9 19 3871 5130 0 White 2
8 AM Tue 56 58 W 9 17 4219 5130 0 Blue 6
9 AM Tue 61 64 W 7 14 4371 5130 0 Blue 12
10 AM Tue 66 72 W 6 11 5212 5130 0 Blue 20
11 AM Tue 72 80 WSW 5 8 7990 6228 1098 Blue 28
12 Noon Tue 73 82 WSW 6 9 8544 7666 2536 Blue 30
1 PM Tue 75 84 WSW 6 9 9092 8220 3090 Blue 32
2 PM Tue 77 85 WSW 7 10 9364 8494 3364 Blue 33
3 PM Tue 76 82 WSW 8 12 8544 7666 2536 Blue 30
4 PM Tue 75 79 WSW 9 14 7710 5748 618 Blue 27
5 PM Tue 75 77 W 10 16 6483 5441 311 Blue 25
6 PM Tue 72 72 W 10 15 5212 5130 0 Blue 20
7 PM Tue 69 69 W 10 15 4608 5130 0 Blue 17
8 PM Tue 67 67 W 10 14 4442 5130 0 Blue 15
9 PM Tue 66 66 W 10 16 4418 5130 0 Blue 14
10 PM Tue 64 64 W 11 19 4371 5130 0 Blue 12
11 PM Tue 63 63 W 11 21 4347 5130 0 Blue 11
12 Midnight Wed 63 63 W 11 21 4347 5130 0 Blue 11
1 AM Wed 62 62 W 11 21 4323 5130 0 Blue 10
2 AM Wed 62 62 W 10 21 4323 5130 0 Blue 10
3 AM Wed 61 61 W 10 20 4299 5130 0 Blue 9
4 AM Wed 60 60 W 9 20 4276 5130 0 Blue 8
5 AM Wed 60 60 W 9 19 4276 5130 0 Blue 8
6 AM Wed 60 60 W 9 18 4276 5130 0 Blue 8
7 AM Wed 61 61 W 8 17 4299 5130 0 Blue 9
8 AM Wed 62 63 W 8 15 4347 5130 0 Blue 11
9 AM Wed 65 68 WSW 9 15 4508 5130 0 Blue 16
10 AM Wed 68 73 WSW 9 14 5332 5130 0 Blue 21
11 AM Wed 71 79 WSW 10 14 7710 5748 618 Blue 27
12 Noon Wed 72 81 WSW 11 16 8268 7386 2256 Blue 29
1 PM Wed 72 81 WSW 13 17 8268 7386 2256 Blue 29
2 PM Wed 73 81 WSW 15 19 8268 7386 2256 Blue 29
3 PM Wed 71 77 WSW 14 20 6483 5441 311 Blue 25
4 PM Wed 69 73 WSW 14 21 5332 5130 0 Blue 21
5 PM Wed 66 68 WSW 14 22 4508 5130 0 Blue 16
6 PM Wed 64 64 WSW 13 20 4371 5130 0 Blue 12
7 PM Wed 61 61 W 13 19 4299 5130 0 Blue 9
8 PM Wed 59 59 W 13 17 4252 5130 0 Blue 7
9 PM Wed 57 57 W 13 18 4142 5130 0 Blue 5
10 PM Wed 55 55 W 13 19 3987 5130 0 Blue 3
11 PM Wed 54 54 W 13 20 3871 5130 0 White 2
12 Midnight Thu 52 52 W 13 21 3427 5130 0 White 0
1 AM Thu 51 51 W 13 23 3204 5130 0 White 0
2 AM Thu 49 49 W 13 24 2666 5130 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 50 50 W 13 22 2981 5130 0 White 0
4 AM Thu 50 50 W 12 21 2981 5130 0 White 0
5 AM Thu 51 51 W 11 19 3204 5130 0 White 0
6 AM Thu 52 52 W 11 19 3427 5130 0 White 0
7 AM Thu 53 53 WSW 10 18 3649 5130 0 White 0
8 AM Thu 54 56 WSW 10 17 4064 5130 0 Blue 4
9 AM Thu 57 61 WSW 10 17 4299 5130 0 Blue 9
10 AM Thu 60 66 WSW 11 16 4418 5130 0 Blue 14
11 AM Thu 64 72 WSW 11 15 5212 5130 0 Blue 20
12 Noon Thu 64 73 WSW 13 17 5332 5130 0 Blue 21
1 PM Thu 64 73 WSW 14 19 5332 5130 0 Blue 21
2 PM Thu 64 72 WSW 16 20 5212 5130 0 Blue 20
3 PM Thu 61 67 WSW 16 22 4442 5130 0 Blue 15
4 PM Thu 59 63 WSW 17 24 4347 5130 0 Blue 11
5 PM Thu 56 58 WSW 17 26 4219 5130 0 Blue 6
6 PM Thu 55 55 WSW 16 27 3987 5130 0 Blue 3
7 PM Thu 54 54 W 15 28 3871 5130 0 White 2
8 PM Thu 53 53 W 14 29 3649 5130 0 White 0
9 PM Thu 51 51 W 13 28 3204 5130 0 White 0
10 PM Thu 49 49 W 13 27 2666 5130 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 47 47 W 12 25 2605 5130 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst