Detailed Predictions for: Warner Springs
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.2845028, -116.6696569, 5130
LZ Altitude (f): 3130
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

24 JUL 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 77 77 N 2 5 2844 5130 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 76 76 N 2 5 2844 5130 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 73 73 NNW 2 5 2844 5130 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 72 72 NNW 2 5 2844 5130 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 71 71 N 2 5 2844 5130 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 70 70 NNW 2 5 2844 5130 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 70 70 NNW 2 5 2844 5130 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 70 70 NNW 1 5 2844 5130 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 74 75 W 1 4 2844 5130 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 82 85 W 2 5 3302 5130 0 Blue 2
10 AM Wed 90 95 W 3 8 7934 5130 0 Blue 12
11 AM Wed 94 99 WSW 6 12 11390 8348 3218 Blue 16
12 Noon Wed 96 102 WSW 9 16 13094 10937 5807 White 19
1 PM Wed 96 103 WSW 9 17 13300 13300 8170 White 20
2 PM Wed 96 101 W 10 18 12887 9316 4186 White 18
3 PM Wed 97 101 W 10 18 12887 9316 4186 White 18
4 PM Wed 95 98 W 11 19 9680 7771 2641 Blue 15
5 PM Wed 94 96 W 11 19 8406 5461 331 Blue 13
6 PM Wed 92 93 W 9 16 5494 5130 0 Blue 10
7 PM Wed 88 88 WNW 6 12 3746 5130 0 Blue 5
8 PM Wed 85 85 WNW 5 10 3302 5130 0 Blue 2
9 PM Wed 81 81 WNW 4 9 2900 5130 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 80 80 NW 3 9 2844 5130 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 78 78 NNW 3 8 2844 5130 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 77 77 NNW 3 8 2844 5130 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 75 75 NNW 3 8 2844 5130 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 73 73 NNW 2 6 2844 5130 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 72 72 NNW 2 6 2844 5130 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 70 70 NNW 2 6 2844 5130 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 70 70 NNW 2 6 2844 5130 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 70 70 NNW 2 5 2844 5130 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 70 70 NW 2 5 2844 5130 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 74 75 NW 2 6 2844 5130 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 80 83 WNW 3 8 3129 5130 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 87 92 WNW 5 10 5019 5130 0 Blue 9
11 AM Thu 94 100 W 6 13 12681 8785 3655 White 17
12 Noon Thu 97 104 W 9 16 13506 13506 8376 White 21
1 PM Thu 98 106 W 11 19 13913 13913 8783 White 23
2 PM Thu 97 104 W 12 20 13506 13506 8376 White 21
3 PM Thu 97 103 W 13 23 13300 13300 8170 White 20
4 PM Thu 97 101 W 14 24 12887 9316 4186 White 18
5 PM Thu 95 98 W 13 23 9680 7771 2641 Blue 15
6 PM Thu 92 93 W 12 20 5494 5130 0 Blue 10
7 PM Thu 89 89 W 10 17 3934 5130 0 Blue 6
8 PM Thu 85 85 W 8 13 3302 5130 0 Blue 2
9 PM Thu 83 83 WNW 5 12 3129 5130 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 80 80 WNW 5 10 2844 5130 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 78 78 WNW 4 10 2844 5130 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 76 76 NW 4 9 2844 5130 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 74 74 NW 3 9 2844 5130 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 72 72 NW 3 8 2844 5130 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 70 70 NW 3 6 2844 5130 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 69 69 WNW 2 6 2844 5130 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 68 68 NW 3 6 2844 5130 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 68 68 NW 2 6 2844 5130 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 69 69 WNW 2 6 2844 5130 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 72 73 W 3 8 2844 5130 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 78 81 W 5 11 2900 5130 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 86 91 W 8 14 4400 5130 0 Blue 8
11 AM Fri 92 99 W 11 19 11390 8348 3218 Blue 16
12 Noon Fri 94 102 W 13 21 13094 10937 5807 White 19
1 PM Fri 95 104 W 14 24 13506 13506 8376 White 21
2 PM Fri 94 102 W 16 25 13094 10937 5807 White 19
3 PM Fri 94 101 W 17 26 12887 9316 4186 White 18
4 PM Fri 93 98 W 17 26 9680 7771 2641 Blue 15
5 PM Fri 91 94 W 16 25 6755 5130 0 Blue 11
6 PM Fri 88 89 W 13 23 3934 5130 0 Blue 6
7 PM Fri 85 85 W 11 19 3302 5130 0 Blue 2
8 PM Fri 81 81 W 9 16 2900 5130 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 78 78 W 6 13 2844 5130 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 76 76 W 5 11 2844 5130 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 73 73 W 5 10 2844 5130 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 71 71 W 4 9 2844 5130 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 68 68 W 3 9 2844 5130 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 66 66 W 3 8 2844 5130 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 65 65 W 3 8 2844 5130 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 64 64 W 2 6 2844 5130 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 64 64 W 2 6 2844 5130 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 63 63 W 2 6 2844 5130 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 64 64 W 2 6 2844 5130 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 66 67 W 4 9 2844 5130 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 72 75 W 4 9 2844 5130 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 80 85 W 4 9 3302 5130 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sat 86 93 W 12 20 5494 5130 0 Blue 10
12 Noon Sat 88 96 W 12 20 8406 5461 331 Blue 13
1 PM Sat 89 98 W 12 20 9680 7771 2641 Blue 15
2 PM Sat 88 96 W 16 25 8406 5461 331 Blue 13
3 PM Sat 88 95 W 16 25 7934 5130 0 Blue 12
4 PM Sat 88 93 W 16 25 5494 5130 0 Blue 10
5 PM Sat 86 89 W 14 24 3934 5130 0 Blue 6
6 PM Sat 83 84 W 14 24 3216 5130 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sat 79 79 W 14 24 2844 5130 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 75 75 W 10 17 2844 5130 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 72 72 W 10 17 2844 5130 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 70 70 W 10 17 2844 5130 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 68 68 W 5 12 2844 5130 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 65 65 W 5 12 2844 5130 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 63 63 W 5 12 2844 5130 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 62 62 W 3 8 2844 5130 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 60 60 W 3 8 2844 5130 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 59 59 W 3 8 2844 5130 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 58 58 W 2 6 2844 5130 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 59 59 W 2 6 2844 5130 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 60 60 W 2 6 2844 5130 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 63 64 W 3 8 2844 5130 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 70 73 W 3 8 2844 5130 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 77 82 W 3 8 3021 5130 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 84 91 WSW 10 17 4400 5130 0 Blue 8
12 Noon Sun 87 95 WSW 10 17 7934 5130 0 Blue 12
1 PM Sun 88 97 WSW 10 17 8884 6610 1480 Blue 14
2 PM Sun 88 96 WSW 13 21 8406 5461 331 Blue 13
3 PM Sun 88 95 WSW 13 21 7934 5130 0 Blue 12
4 PM Sun 87 92 WSW 13 21 5019 5130 0 Blue 9
5 PM Sun 86 89 W 13 21 3934 5130 0 Blue 6
6 PM Sun 83 84 W 13 21 3216 5130 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sun 80 80 W 13 21 2844 5130 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 76 76 W 5 12 2844 5130 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 73 73 W 5 12 2844 5130 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 70 70 W 5 12 2844 5130 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 68 68 W 3 8 2844 5130 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 66 66 W 3 8 2844 5130 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 64 64 W 3 8 2844 5130 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 62 62 WNW 2 5 2844 5130 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 60 60 WNW 2 5 2844 5130 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 60 60 WNW 2 5 2844 5130 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 60 60 WNW 1 1 2844 5130 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 60 60 WNW 1 1 2844 5130 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 62 62 WNW 1 1 2844 5130 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 66 67 W 2 5 2844 5130 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 72 75 W 2 5 2844 5130 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 80 85 W 2 5 3302 5130 0 Blue 2
11 AM Mon 86 93 WSW 6 13 5494 5130 0 Blue 10
12 Noon Mon 89 97 WSW 6 13 8884 6610 1480 Blue 14
1 PM Mon 90 99 WSW 6 13 11390 8348 3218 Blue 16
2 PM Mon 90 98 WSW 11 19 9680 7771 2641 Blue 15
3 PM Mon 90 97 WSW 11 19 8884 6610 1480 Blue 14
4 PM Mon 89 94 WSW 11 19 6755 5130 0 Blue 11
5 PM Mon 88 91 WSW 12 20 4400 5130 0 Blue 8
6 PM Mon 85 86 WSW 12 20 3389 5130 0 Blue 3
7 PM Mon 81 81 WSW 12 20 2900 5130 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 78 78 W 4 9 2844 5130 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 75 75 W 4 9 2844 5130 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 72 72 W 4 9 2844 5130 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst