Detailed Predictions for: Warner Springs
Launch Altitude (f): 2000
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

2 DEC 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 36 36 N 1 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 35 35 NE 1 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 35 35 NE 2 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 38 38 N 1 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 45 45 SW 0 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 53 54 SE 3 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 60 62 SE 13 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 63 65 SE 14 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 63 65 SE 16 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 63 65 SE 16 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 62 63 SE 15 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 60 60 SE 14 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 56 56 SE 14 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 52 52 E 10 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 47 47 E 7 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 44 44 E 6 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 41 41 E 6 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 41 41 E 7 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 40 40 E 8 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 39 39 E 7 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 38 38 NE 5 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 37 37 NE 5 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 37 37 E 7 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 37 37 E 9 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 36 36 E 12 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 34 34 SE 13 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 33 33 SE 14 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 34 34 SE 14 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 38 38 SE 13 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 44 45 E 13 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 49 51 E 12 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 53 55 SE 12 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 55 57 S 12 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 54 56 S 12 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 54 55 S 12 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 51 51 SE 10 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 48 48 SE 9 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 44 44 S 8 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 39 39 W 6 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 36 36 W 3 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 34 34 NW 3 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 33 33 NE 3 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 33 33 E 3 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 32 32 E 5 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 32 32 E 5 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 32 32 E 5 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 32 32 E 5 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 32 32 SE 5 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 32 32 SE 5 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 31 31 SE 5 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 31 31 E 5 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 34 34 E 6 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 40 40 E 7 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 48 49 E 8 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 55 57 E 9 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 59 61 E 10 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 61 63 E 10 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 62 64 E 9 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 61 62 E 8 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 61 61 NE 6 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 58 58 NE 5 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 52 52 E 3 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 44 44 E 5 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 37 37 E 5 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 33 33 E 6 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 32 32 E 6 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 33 33 E 7 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 36 36 E 8 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 38 38 E 9 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 41 41 E 9 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 42 42 E 8 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 42 42 E 7 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 41 41 E 7 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 40 40 E 7 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 40 40 E 7 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 42 42 E 8 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 47 47 E 8 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 54 55 E 8 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 60 62 E 9 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 64 66 E 9 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 66 68 E 9 4406 2779 779 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 66 68 E 10 4406 2779 779 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 66 67 E 10 3649 2779 779 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 65 65 E 10 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 61 61 E 8 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 55 55 E 8 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 47 47 E 8 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 42 42 E 7 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 39 39 E 7 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 39 39 E 7 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 39 39 E 7 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 39 39 E 7 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 38 38 E 7 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 37 37 E 3 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 38 38 E 3 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 39 39 E 3 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 38 38 E 6 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 36 36 E 6 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 34 34 E 6 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 35 35 E 8 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 42 42 E 8 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 52 53 E 8 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 60 62 E 9 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 65 67 E 9 3649 2779 779 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 65 67 E 9 3649 2779 779 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 65 67 E 10 3649 2779 779 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 66 67 E 10 3649 2779 779 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 65 65 E 10 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 61 61 E 9 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 55 55 E 9 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 48 48 E 9 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 42 42 E 8 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 40 40 E 8 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 39 39 E 8 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 38 38 NE 8 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 37 37 NE 8 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 36 36 NE 8 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 36 36 NE 8 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 39 39 NE 8 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 42 42 NE 8 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 43 43 E 8 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 39 39 E 8 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 35 35 E 8 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 34 34 E 7 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 40 40 E 7 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 50 51 E 7 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 60 62 E 10 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 65 67 E 10 3649 2779 779 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 65 67 E 10 3649 2779 779 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 65 67 E 12 3649 2779 779 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 64 65 E 12 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 62 62 E 12 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 59 59 E 10 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 53 53 E 10 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 47 47 E 10 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 43 43 E 9 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 43 43 E 9 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 44 44 E 9 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 46 46 E 9 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 47 47 E 9 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 46 46 E 9 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 44 44 E 10 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 42 42 E 10 2779 2779 779 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 39 39 E 10 2779 2779 779 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst