Detailed Predictions for: Warner Springs
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.2845028, -116.6696569, 5130
LZ Altitude (f): 3130
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time UTC:

 N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Sat 45 45 N 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 44 44 N 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 42 42 N 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 41 41 NNE 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 40 40 NNE 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 40 40 NE 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 40 40 NNE 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 40 40 NNE 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 43 43 N 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 50 52 WSW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 56 59 WSW 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 64 69 WSW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 69 75 W 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 72 78 WSW 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 73 79 W 11 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 72 76 WSW 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 72 74 WSW 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 70 71 WSW 12 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 66 66 WSW 11 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 61 61 SW 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 56 56 S 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 52 52 SSE 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 50 50 N 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 47 47 NNW 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 46 46 N 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 44 44 N 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 43 43 WNW 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 42 42 NNW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 41 41 NNW 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 41 41 NW 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 42 42 WNW 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 42 42 SW 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 44 44 SSW 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 50 51 S 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 58 61 SSE 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 65 70 SE 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 70 76 SE 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 73 79 ESE 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 75 80 ESE 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 73 77 ESE 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 73 75 ESE 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 74 75 ESE 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 73 73 E 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 65 65 E 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 60 60 E 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 57 57 ENE 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 56 56 ENE 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 52 52 NE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 54 54 NE 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 53 53 NNE 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 47 47 NNE 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 55 55 NE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 52 52 ENE 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 46 46 E 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 50 50 E 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 54 54 ESE 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 49 49 ESE 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 63 65 ESE 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 68 71 ESE 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 67 72 ESE 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 77 83 ESE 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 78 84 ESE 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 75 81 ESE 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 80 84 ESE 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 79 82 ESE 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 75 76 E 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 76 76 ESE 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 72 72 SE 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 64 64 SE 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 62 62 ESE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 64 64 E 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 57 57 E 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 52 52 ENE 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 52 52 NE 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 53 53 NNE 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 53 53 NE 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 52 52 E 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 52 52 E 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 51 51 E 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 52 52 E 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 55 55 NE 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 61 62 NE 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 68 70 NE 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 74 77 ESE 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 78 82 ESE 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 80 84 ESE 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 80 84 SSE 10 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 81 84 SSE 10 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 80 82 SSE 10 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 77 77 SW 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 72 72 SW 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 67 67 SW 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 62 62 W 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 59 59 W 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 56 56 W 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 54 54 W 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 52 52 W 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 50 50 W 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 48 48 W 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 47 47 W 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 46 46 W 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 45 45 WNW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 44 44 WNW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 44 44 WNW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 47 47 W 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 52 53 W 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 60 62 W 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 67 71 W 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 71 76 W 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 74 79 W 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 75 80 W 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 74 78 W 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 74 76 W 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 72 73 W 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 68 68 W 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 63 63 W 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 58 58 W 10 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 55 55 W 10 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 53 53 W 10 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 51 51 W 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 49 49 W 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 47 47 W 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 46 46 W 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 45 45 W 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 44 44 W 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 44 44 W 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 43 43 W 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 43 43 W 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 46 46 W 6 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 50 51 W 6 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 56 59 W 6 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 62 65 W 11 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 66 70 W 11 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 69 73 W 11 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 69 73 W 17 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 70 73 W 17 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 68 70 W 17 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 65 65 W 16 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 62 62 W 16 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 58 58 W 16 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 54 54 W 14 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 51 51 W 14 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 48 48 W 14 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst