Detailed Predictions for: Warner Springs
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.2845028, -116.6696569, 5130
LZ Altitude (f): 3130
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

2 AUG 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Mon 68 68 NNE 2 6 2697 5130 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 68 68 NE 3 8 2697 5130 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 67 67 NE 2 6 2697 5130 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 66 66 NE 3 8 2697 5130 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 66 66 NE 4 9 2697 5130 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 67 67 NE 4 9 2697 5130 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 70 70 NNE 4 9 2697 5130 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 75 75 NNE 2 6 2697 5130 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 81 82 W 2 6 2981 5130 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 86 89 W 3 8 5110 5130 0 Blue 5
10 AM Mon 91 96 W 4 9 11866 9982 4852 Blue 12
11 AM Mon 95 102 S 4 10 13902 12866 7736 Blue 18
12 Noon Mon 97 105 SSW 8 13 14788 13796 8666 Blue 21
1 PM Mon 98 107 SW 10 18 17148 14385 9255 Blue 23
2 PM Mon 97 105 WSW 11 19 14788 13796 8666 Blue 21
3 PM Mon 98 105 WSW 13 21 14788 13796 8666 Blue 21
4 PM Mon 97 102 WSW 13 23 13902 12866 7736 Blue 18
5 PM Mon 95 97 W 12 21 12244 10992 5862 Blue 13
6 PM Mon 90 91 W 8 14 7819 5130 0 Blue 7
7 PM Mon 85 85 W 4 9 3721 5130 0 Blue 1
8 PM Mon 81 81 WNW 2 5 2798 5130 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 77 77 NW 2 5 2697 5130 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 75 75 N 3 8 2697 5130 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 73 73 NNE 4 9 2697 5130 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 72 72 NNE 3 9 2697 5130 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 71 71 NE 3 8 2697 5130 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 70 70 NE 2 6 2697 5130 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 69 69 NE 3 8 2697 5130 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 68 68 NNE 3 8 2697 5130 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 69 69 NNE 3 9 2697 5130 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 72 72 N 3 8 2697 5130 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 77 77 NW 2 6 2697 5130 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 83 84 W 2 6 3365 5130 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 88 91 W 3 8 7819 5130 0 Blue 7
10 AM Tue 93 98 W 5 11 12616 11378 6248 Blue 14
11 AM Tue 97 104 WSW 8 13 14495 13498 8368 Blue 20
12 Noon Tue 99 107 WSW 9 16 17148 14385 9255 Blue 23
1 PM Tue 100 109 WSW 10 18 18602 14964 9834 Blue 25
2 PM Tue 99 107 WSW 11 19 17148 14385 9255 Blue 23
3 PM Tue 100 107 WSW 12 20 17148 14385 9255 Blue 23
4 PM Tue 99 104 WSW 12 20 14495 13498 8368 Blue 20
5 PM Tue 96 99 W 11 19 12983 11758 6628 Blue 15
6 PM Tue 92 93 WSW 9 16 10212 5924 794 Blue 9
7 PM Tue 87 87 WSW 6 12 4423 5130 0 Blue 3
8 PM Tue 82 82 SW 3 9 2981 5130 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 78 78 W 3 8 2697 5130 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 75 75 NNW 3 8 2697 5130 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 73 73 N 3 8 2697 5130 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 71 71 N 3 8 2697 5130 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 70 70 N 3 8 2697 5130 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 69 69 N 3 9 2697 5130 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 68 68 N 4 9 2697 5130 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 67 67 NNE 4 10 2697 5130 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 68 68 NNE 4 10 2697 5130 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 70 70 N 3 8 2697 5130 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 74 74 W 2 6 2697 5130 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 80 81 WSW 2 6 2798 5130 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 86 89 WSW 3 9 5110 5130 0 Blue 5
10 AM Wed 92 97 WSW 6 12 12244 10992 5862 Blue 13
11 AM Wed 97 104 WSW 9 16 14495 13498 8368 Blue 20
12 Noon Wed 99 107 WSW 11 18 17148 14385 9255 Blue 23
1 PM Wed 99 108 WSW 12 20 18202 14675 9545 Blue 24
2 PM Wed 100 108 WSW 13 23 18202 14675 9545 Blue 24
3 PM Wed 99 106 WSW 14 23 15352 14092 8962 Blue 22
4 PM Wed 98 103 WSW 14 24 14200 13197 8067 Blue 19
5 PM Wed 95 98 WSW 13 21 12616 11378 6248 Blue 14
6 PM Wed 91 92 WSW 11 19 9117 5130 0 Blue 8
7 PM Wed 86 86 SW 8 14 4074 5130 0 Blue 2
8 PM Wed 82 82 SW 5 11 2981 5130 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 78 78 W 3 9 2697 5130 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 75 75 NNW 2 6 2697 5130 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 73 73 N 2 6 2697 5130 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 72 72 N 2 6 2697 5130 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 71 71 N 2 6 2697 5130 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 70 70 N 3 8 2697 5130 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 68 68 N 3 9 2697 5130 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 67 67 N 3 9 2697 5130 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 68 68 N 4 5 2697 5130 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 71 71 N 4 5 2697 5130 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 76 76 N 4 5 2697 5130 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 82 83 WNW 2 6 3164 5130 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 87 90 WNW 2 6 6117 5130 0 Blue 6
10 AM Thu 91 96 WNW 2 6 11866 9982 4852 Blue 12
11 AM Thu 95 102 SW 9 14 13902 12866 7736 Blue 18
12 Noon Thu 97 105 SW 9 14 14788 13796 8666 Blue 21
1 PM Thu 98 107 SW 9 14 17148 14385 9255 Blue 23
2 PM Thu 97 105 SW 12 21 14788 13796 8666 Blue 21
3 PM Thu 98 105 SW 12 21 14788 13796 8666 Blue 21
4 PM Thu 96 101 SW 12 21 13602 12502 7372 Blue 17
5 PM Thu 94 97 SW 11 19 12244 10992 5862 Blue 13
6 PM Thu 90 91 SW 11 19 7819 5130 0 Blue 7
7 PM Thu 85 85 SW 11 19 3721 5130 0 Blue 1
8 PM Thu 81 81 W 4 9 2798 5130 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 77 77 W 4 9 2697 5130 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 74 74 W 4 9 2697 5130 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 71 71 N 3 5 2697 5130 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 70 70 N 3 5 2697 5130 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 69 69 N 3 5 2697 5130 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 68 68 NE 2 5 2697 5130 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 66 66 NE 2 5 2697 5130 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 65 65 NE 2 5 2697 5130 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 65 65 E 2 3 2697 5130 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 69 69 E 2 3 2697 5130 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 74 74 E 2 3 2697 5130 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 80 81 SW 2 5 2798 5130 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 85 88 SW 2 5 4768 5130 0 Blue 4
10 AM Fri 89 94 SW 2 5 11093 7606 2476 Blue 10
11 AM Fri 93 100 SW 9 14 13299 12133 7003 Blue 16
12 Noon Fri 94 102 SW 9 14 13902 12866 7736 Blue 18
1 PM Fri 94 103 SW 9 14 14200 13197 8067 Blue 19
2 PM Fri 95 103 SW 12 21 14200 13197 8067 Blue 19
3 PM Fri 94 101 SW 12 21 13602 12502 7372 Blue 17
4 PM Fri 92 97 SW 12 21 12244 10992 5862 Blue 13
5 PM Fri 89 91 SW 11 19 7819 5130 0 Blue 7
6 PM Fri 84 85 SW 11 19 3721 5130 0 Blue 1
7 PM Fri 80 80 SW 11 19 2697 5130 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 75 75 SW 5 9 2697 5130 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 72 72 SW 5 9 2697 5130 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 70 70 SW 5 9 2697 5130 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 68 68 ENE 2 4 2697 5130 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 67 67 ENE 2 4 2697 5130 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 66 66 ENE 2 4 2697 5130 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 65 65 NNE 2 4 2697 5130 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 63 63 NNE 2 4 2697 5130 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 62 62 NNE 2 4 2697 5130 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 62 62 NW 2 3 2697 5130 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 64 64 NW 2 3 2697 5130 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 68 68 NW 2 3 2697 5130 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 73 74 W 2 5 2697 5130 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 79 82 W 2 5 2981 5130 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 84 89 W 2 5 5110 5130 0 Blue 5
11 AM Sat 88 94 SW 9 14 11093 7606 2476 Blue 10
12 Noon Sat 90 98 SW 9 14 12616 11378 6248 Blue 14
1 PM Sat 90 98 SW 9 14 12616 11378 6248 Blue 14
2 PM Sat 90 98 SW 12 20 12616 11378 6248 Blue 14
3 PM Sat 90 96 SW 12 20 11866 9982 4852 Blue 12
4 PM Sat 88 92 SW 12 20 9117 5130 0 Blue 8
5 PM Sat 85 87 SW 12 18 4423 5130 0 Blue 3
6 PM Sat 81 82 SW 12 18 2981 5130 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 76 76 SW 12 18 2697 5130 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 71 71 SW 4 9 2697 5130 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 68 68 SW 4 9 2697 5130 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 67 67 SW 4 9 2697 5130 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst