Detailed Predictions for: Warner Springs
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.2845028, -116.6696569, 5130
LZ Altitude (f): 3130
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

5 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 49 49 E 3 9 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 46 46 E 4 9 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 46 46 E 3 9 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 46 46 E 4 9 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 44 44 E 5 11 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 45 45 E 6 12 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 44 44 E 5 11 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 45 45 E 5 10 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 50 50 E 3 8 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 59 60 E 8 13 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 65 67 ESE 10 17 3150 5130 0 Blue 1
11 AM Tue 69 71 ESE 11 19 4691 5130 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Tue 70 73 ESE 11 19 7095 5130 0 Blue 7
1 PM Tue 71 73 ESE 11 19 7095 5130 0 Blue 7
2 PM Tue 72 73 ESE 10 18 7095 5130 0 Blue 7
3 PM Tue 70 70 ESE 10 17 3811 5130 0 Blue 4
4 PM Tue 68 68 ESE 8 14 3352 5130 0 Blue 2
5 PM Tue 65 65 E 8 13 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 60 60 E 6 12 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 57 57 E 5 11 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 54 54 E 5 11 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 53 53 E 5 11 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 52 52 E 5 11 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 51 51 E 5 10 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 49 49 E 5 10 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 49 49 E 4 10 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 48 48 E 4 9 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 47 47 E 3 8 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 46 46 E 2 6 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 45 45 E 2 6 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 45 45 E 2 6 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 44 44 E 3 8 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 49 49 SE 2 6 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 57 58 S 2 6 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 66 68 SSW 3 8 3352 5130 0 Blue 2
11 AM Wed 70 72 SW 6 12 5853 5130 0 Blue 6
12 Noon Wed 72 74 WSW 10 17 7771 5130 0 Blue 8
1 PM Wed 72 74 WSW 12 21 7771 5130 0 Blue 8
2 PM Wed 71 72 WSW 12 20 5853 5130 0 Blue 6
3 PM Wed 70 70 WSW 10 18 3811 5130 0 Blue 4
4 PM Wed 67 67 W 8 14 3150 5130 0 Blue 1
5 PM Wed 63 63 WNW 6 12 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 59 59 NNW 4 10 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 55 55 N 3 8 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 53 53 N 4 9 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 51 51 N 4 10 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 49 49 N 5 11 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 48 48 N 5 11 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 47 47 N 5 11 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 46 46 N 4 10 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 44 44 N 4 9 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 43 43 N 3 9 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 42 42 N 3 8 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 40 40 NNE 3 8 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 40 40 NNE 3 8 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 40 40 NNE 4 9 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 45 45 N 5 10 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 52 53 W 6 13 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 57 59 WSW 9 16 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 60 62 WSW 11 19 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 62 64 WSW 13 21 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 62 64 WSW 14 24 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 62 63 WSW 14 25 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 61 61 W 14 24 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 59 59 W 13 23 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 56 56 W 11 20 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 52 52 NW 9 17 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 49 49 N 8 13 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 47 47 N 6 12 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 46 46 N 6 12 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 45 45 N 6 12 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 44 44 N 6 12 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 43 43 N 6 12 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 42 42 N 6 12 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 41 41 N 5 12 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 40 40 NNW 5 11 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 39 39 NNW 5 11 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 37 37 NNW 5 11 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 36 36 NNW 5 11 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 37 37 N 9 17 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 42 42 N 9 17 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 48 49 N 9 17 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 55 57 NNW 10 18 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 58 60 NNW 10 18 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 60 62 NNW 10 18 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 61 63 E 12 21 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 61 62 E 12 21 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 60 60 E 12 21 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 58 58 E 12 21 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 56 56 E 12 21 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 52 52 E 12 21 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 49 49 E 11 18 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 46 46 E 11 18 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 45 45 E 11 18 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 44 44 E 10 18 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 42 42 E 10 18 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 41 41 E 10 18 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 40 40 E 11 18 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 39 39 E 11 18 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 38 38 E 11 18 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 37 37 E 11 19 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 36 36 E 11 19 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 36 36 E 11 19 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 36 36 E 12 20 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 42 42 E 12 20 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 49 50 E 12 20 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 55 57 E 13 21 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 58 60 E 13 21 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 60 62 E 13 21 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 60 62 E 14 24 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 60 61 E 14 24 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 59 59 E 14 24 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 58 58 E 12 21 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 54 54 E 12 21 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 51 51 E 12 21 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 48 48 E 10 17 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 46 46 E 10 17 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 45 45 E 10 17 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 44 44 E 10 17 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 43 43 E 10 17 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 42 42 E 10 17 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 42 42 E 10 18 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 41 41 E 10 18 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 40 40 E 10 18 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 40 40 ENE 11 18 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 38 38 ENE 11 18 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 38 38 ENE 11 18 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 38 38 ENE 11 19 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 44 44 ENE 11 19 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 52 53 ENE 11 19 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 60 61 ENE 12 20 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 63 65 ENE 12 20 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 66 68 ENE 12 20 3352 5130 0 Blue 2
1 PM Sun 66 68 E 11 19 3352 5130 0 Blue 2
2 PM Sun 66 67 E 11 19 3150 5130 0 Blue 1
3 PM Sun 65 65 E 11 19 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 62 62 E 10 18 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 59 59 E 10 18 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 56 56 E 10 18 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 52 52 E 9 16 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 50 50 E 9 16 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 49 49 E 9 16 2717 5130 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 48 48 ENE 9 16 2717 5130 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst