Detailed Predictions for: Winchester
Launch Altitude (f): 1850
LZ Altitude (f): 1600
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

17 NOV 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sun 45 40 N 3 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 44 39 N 3 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 43 38 NE 2 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 46 41 NE 1 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 55 50 N 1 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 66 62 S 1 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 76 73 SE 1 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 82 80 NE 2 3645 1850 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sun 85 83 NE 2 6414 3564 1714 Blue 4
1 PM Sun 86 84 W 1 6805 4734 2884 Blue 5
2 PM Sun 87 84 W 1 6805 4734 2884 Blue 5
3 PM Sun 87 83 N 1 6414 3564 1714 Blue 4
4 PM Sun 84 79 NE 6 2119 1850 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 76 71 NE 3 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 65 60 N 2 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 56 51 N 1 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 51 46 N 2 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 50 45 NE 2 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 50 45 E 2 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 49 44 E 2 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 47 42 E 2 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 46 41 SE 2 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 45 40 E 2 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 44 39 SE 1 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 44 39 E 1 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 43 38 E 1 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 44 39 E 1 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 48 43 SE 1 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 57 52 SW 1 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 67 63 SE 1 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 77 74 N 2 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 83 81 NW 1 4843 1850 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Mon 86 83 N 1 6414 3564 1714 Blue 4
1 PM Mon 87 84 N 2 6805 4734 2884 Blue 5
2 PM Mon 87 83 N 5 6414 3564 1714 Blue 4
3 PM Mon 87 82 NW 1 6017 2090 240 Blue 3
4 PM Mon 84 79 SE 1 2119 1850 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 77 72 SE 3 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 69 64 S 2 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 64 59 S 3 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 62 57 S 3 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 62 57 S 5 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 62 57 SW 8 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 58 53 SW 6 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 54 49 S 6 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 51 46 SE 1 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 50 45 NW 2 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 51 46 NW 3 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 52 47 SW 2 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 50 45 SW 1 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 49 44 SW 1 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 51 46 SW 1 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 57 52 SW 3 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 67 62 SW 5 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 74 70 SW 9 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 76 72 SW 13 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 76 72 SW 13 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 74 70 SW 16 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 72 67 SW 17 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 69 64 SW 17 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 66 61 SW 18 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 62 57 SW 17 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 58 53 SW 16 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 55 50 SW 14 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 54 49 SW 12 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 54 49 S 12 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 54 49 S 9 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 54 49 SW 6 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 55 50 SW 6 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 54 49 S 12 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 54 49 S 12 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 53 48 S 12 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 51 46 SW 9 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 48 43 SW 9 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 46 41 SW 9 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 46 41 S 7 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 49 44 S 7 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 54 49 S 7 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 58 53 S 6 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 59 54 S 6 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 58 53 S 6 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 57 52 S 8 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 58 53 S 8 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 60 55 S 8 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 60 55 S 12 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 60 55 S 12 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 58 53 S 12 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 54 49 S 8 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 52 47 S 8 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 50 45 S 8 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 48 43 S 5 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 46 41 S 5 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 44 39 S 5 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 43 38 SE 5 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 44 39 SE 5 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 46 41 SE 5 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 47 42 SE 3 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 44 39 SE 3 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 41 36 SE 3 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 41 36 SE 3 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 44 39 SE 3 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 48 43 SE 3 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 52 48 SW 5 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 55 51 SW 5 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 58 54 SW 5 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 60 56 SW 6 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 61 57 SW 6 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 61 56 SW 6 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 61 56 SW 6 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 59 54 SW 6 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 55 50 SW 6 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 53 48 SW 3 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 51 46 SW 3 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 51 46 SW 3 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 50 45 SE 1 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 49 44 SE 1 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 47 42 SE 1 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 46 41 NE 1 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 44 39 NE 1 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 44 39 NE 1 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 43 38 S 1 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 41 36 S 1 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 40 35 S 1 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 41 36 S 1 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 46 41 S 1 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 52 48 S 1 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 58 55 SW 2 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 62 59 SW 2 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 64 61 SW 2 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 65 62 S 5 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 65 61 S 5 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 66 61 S 5 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 64 59 S 8 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 62 57 S 8 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 58 53 S 8 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 54 49 W 5 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 51 46 W 5 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 49 44 W 5 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 47 42 SE 2 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 46 41 SE 2 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 45 40 SE 2 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 44 39 S 3 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 43 38 S 3 1512 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 42 37 S 3 1512 1850 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst