Detailed Predictions for: Winchester
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.7298, -117.063, 1850
LZ Altitude (f): 1600
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

2 AUG 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Mon 78 73 NNE 1 2 1818 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 75 70 NNE 1 2 1818 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 72 67 N 1 2 1818 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 72 67 ESE 1 2 1818 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 71 66 SSW 1 2 1818 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 70 65 WNW 1 2 1818 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 75 70 WNW 1 2 1818 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 79 74 WNW 0 1 1818 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 84 80 W 0 1 1844 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 87 85 WNW 2 2 2272 2007 157 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 91 91 WNW 4 4 3658 2950 1100 Blue 6
11 AM Mon 95 97 WNW 5 6 7355 4660 2810 Blue 12
12 Noon Mon 98 101 WNW 7 8 11319 8444 6594 Blue 16
1 PM Mon 100 104 WNW 9 11 12440 11204 9354 Blue 19
2 PM Mon 103 106 WNW 11 13 13143 11950 10100 Blue 21
3 PM Mon 102 104 WNW 12 13 12440 11204 9354 Blue 19
4 PM Mon 102 102 WNW 12 14 11698 9562 7712 Blue 17
5 PM Mon 101 99 WNW 12 14 9822 5300 3450 Blue 14
6 PM Mon 99 95 W 9 12 5026 3982 2132 Blue 10
7 PM Mon 97 92 W 6 10 4005 3129 1279 Blue 7
8 PM Mon 95 90 WSW 4 8 3317 2770 920 Blue 5
9 PM Mon 94 89 S 2 6 3137 2538 688 Blue 4
10 PM Mon 93 88 ESE 2 4 2956 2268 418 Blue 3
11 PM Mon 92 87 NNE 0 1 2776 2170 320 Blue 2
12 Midnight Tue 85 80 NNE 0 1 1844 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 78 73 NNE 0 1 1818 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 71 66 NNE 0 0 1818 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 70 65 NE 0 1 1818 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 70 65 ENE 0 1 1818 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 69 64 ESE 0 1 1818 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 75 70 SSE 0 1 1818 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 81 76 SW 0 1 1818 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 87 83 WNW 1 1 2089 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 90 88 WNW 2 2 2956 2268 418 Blue 3
10 AM Tue 93 93 WNW 3 4 4349 3309 1459 Blue 8
11 AM Tue 97 99 W 5 5 9822 5300 3450 Blue 14
12 Noon Tue 99 102 W 7 8 11698 9562 7712 Blue 17
1 PM Tue 102 106 WNW 8 10 13143 11950 10100 Blue 21
2 PM Tue 105 108 WNW 11 12 13739 12675 10825 Blue 23
3 PM Tue 103 105 W 10 12 12803 11580 9730 Blue 20
4 PM Tue 102 102 W 10 12 11698 9562 7712 Blue 17
5 PM Tue 100 98 WSW 10 12 8702 4994 3144 Blue 13
6 PM Tue 98 94 WSW 8 11 4689 3639 1789 Blue 9
7 PM Tue 96 91 WSW 6 10 3658 2950 1100 Blue 6
8 PM Tue 93 88 SW 4 9 2956 2268 418 Blue 3
9 PM Tue 91 86 SSW 3 6 2544 2089 239 Blue 1
10 PM Tue 88 83 SSE 2 4 2089 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 86 81 SE 0 1 1926 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 81 76 S 0 1 1818 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 76 71 SSW 1 2 1818 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 71 66 WSW 1 2 1818 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 70 65 SW 1 2 1818 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 70 65 SW 1 2 1818 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 69 64 SSW 1 2 1818 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 74 69 SW 1 2 1818 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 80 75 SW 1 2 1818 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 85 81 SW 1 1 1926 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 89 87 WSW 2 3 2776 2170 320 Blue 2
10 AM Wed 92 92 WSW 4 4 4005 3129 1279 Blue 7
11 AM Wed 96 98 WSW 5 6 8702 4994 3144 Blue 13
12 Noon Wed 99 102 WSW 7 8 11698 9562 7712 Blue 17
1 PM Wed 101 105 SW 9 10 12803 11580 9730 Blue 20
2 PM Wed 104 107 SW 11 13 13442 12315 10465 Blue 22
3 PM Wed 101 103 SW 10 12 12072 10542 8692 Blue 18
4 PM Wed 98 98 SW 9 11 8702 4994 3144 Blue 13
5 PM Wed 96 94 SW 8 10 4689 3639 1789 Blue 9
6 PM Wed 94 90 SW 7 9 3317 2770 920 Blue 5
7 PM Wed 92 87 SW 5 8 2776 2170 320 Blue 2
8 PM Wed 90 85 SW 3 8 2272 2007 157 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 89 84 SSW 3 6 2171 1926 76 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 88 83 S 2 5 2089 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 87 82 S 2 4 2008 1850 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst