Detailed Predictions for: Winchester
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.7298, -117.063, 1850
LZ Altitude (f): 1600
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 5 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Tue 54 49 SSW 2 6 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 52 47 SSE 2 5 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 51 46 ESE 2 6 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 50 45 ESE 3 8 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 49 44 E 2 5 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 49 44 WSW 2 6 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 48 43 SW 3 8 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 48 43 SSW 2 6 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 53 48 SSW 2 6 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 61 57 S 2 6 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 67 64 WSW 2 6 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 73 70 W 2 6 1539 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 76 73 W 2 6 2549 1850 0 Blue 2
1 PM Tue 77 74 NW 2 5 3027 1850 0 Blue 3
2 PM Tue 78 74 W 3 8 3027 1850 0 Blue 3
3 PM Tue 78 73 W 3 8 2549 1850 0 Blue 2
4 PM Tue 75 70 ENE 2 6 1539 1850 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 72 67 ENE 2 6 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 67 62 ENE 2 6 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 64 59 ENE 2 6 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 62 57 ENE 2 6 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 60 55 E 1 5 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 58 53 ESE 1 4 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 56 51 ESE 2 5 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 54 49 ESE 2 6 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 54 49 ESE 3 8 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 53 48 ESE 3 8 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 52 47 ESE 2 6 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 51 46 E 2 5 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 50 45 ESE 1 5 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 50 45 SE 1 4 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 50 45 SSE 1 5 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 54 49 S 2 5 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 61 57 SSW 2 6 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 69 66 SW 3 8 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 73 70 SW 4 10 1539 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 76 73 SW 6 12 2549 1850 0 Blue 2
1 PM Wed 76 73 SW 8 13 2549 1850 0 Blue 2
2 PM Wed 76 72 SW 9 16 2102 1850 0 Blue 1
3 PM Wed 74 69 SW 9 16 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 72 67 SW 9 16 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 68 63 SW 8 13 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 64 59 SSW 5 11 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 60 55 SSW 3 9 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 58 53 SSW 3 6 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 56 51 SSW 2 6 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 55 50 SSW 2 6 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 53 48 S 2 5 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 51 46 SE 2 5 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 50 45 ESE 2 5 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 48 43 SE 1 5 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 48 43 S 1 5 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 47 42 SSW 1 5 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 45 40 SSW 1 5 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 44 39 SW 1 1 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 45 40 SW 1 5 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 49 44 SW 2 6 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 54 50 SW 3 9 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 60 56 SSW 4 10 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 63 60 SW 5 11 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 66 63 SW 5 11 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 67 64 SW 6 12 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 67 63 WSW 6 13 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 66 61 W 8 14 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 64 59 W 8 14 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 62 57 WSW 8 14 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 58 53 SSW 8 13 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 55 50 S 6 13 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 54 49 S 6 12 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 52 47 SSW 6 12 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 51 46 SSW 6 12 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 50 45 SSW 6 12 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 49 44 SSW 6 13 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 48 43 S 6 13 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 47 42 S 5 11 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 46 41 S 4 9 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 45 40 S 3 8 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 43 38 S 3 8 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 42 37 S 3 8 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 43 38 N 3 8 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 47 42 N 3 8 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 52 47 N 3 8 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 57 54 S 4 10 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 62 59 S 4 10 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 65 62 S 4 10 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 67 64 SSW 6 12 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 68 64 SSW 6 12 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 67 62 SSW 6 12 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 65 60 SSE 6 13 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 62 57 SSE 6 13 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 59 54 SSE 6 13 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 55 50 ENE 8 13 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 53 48 ENE 8 13 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 52 47 ENE 8 13 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 50 45 E 6 13 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 48 43 E 6 13 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 47 42 E 6 13 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 46 41 ESE 6 12 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 44 39 ESE 6 12 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 43 38 ESE 6 12 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 43 38 E 4 10 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 42 37 E 4 10 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 42 37 E 4 10 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 42 37 SE 5 11 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 48 43 SE 5 11 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 55 51 SE 5 11 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 61 58 SW 5 11 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 65 62 SW 5 11 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 68 65 SW 5 11 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 69 66 N 5 11 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 69 65 N 5 11 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 68 63 N 5 11 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 66 61 NE 6 13 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 63 58 NE 6 13 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 60 55 NE 6 13 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 57 52 NE 6 12 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 54 49 NE 6 12 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 53 48 NE 6 12 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 52 47 SW 5 11 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 50 45 SW 5 11 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 49 44 SW 5 11 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 48 43 W 4 10 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 47 42 W 4 10 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 46 41 W 4 10 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 46 41 S 3 8 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 44 39 S 3 8 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 44 39 S 3 8 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 44 39 WNW 3 9 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 50 45 WNW 3 9 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 58 54 WNW 3 9 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 64 60 SW 5 11 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 69 66 SW 5 11 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 72 69 SW 5 11 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 74 71 NNE 4 9 1646 1850 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 74 70 NNE 4 9 1539 1850 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 72 67 NNE 4 9 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 70 65 ENE 5 10 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 67 62 ENE 5 10 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 63 58 ENE 5 10 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 60 55 E 5 11 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 58 53 E 5 11 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 56 51 E 5 11 1483 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 55 50 E 4 10 1483 1850 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst