Detailed Predictions for: Slide Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 39.31966654775122, -119.8678295108672, 8200
LZ Altitude (f): 6000
Sounding

Station:

KREV

Date/Time:

23 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 53 38 WSW 11 17 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 52 37 WSW 11 17 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 52 37 WSW 13 20 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 51 36 WSW 13 20 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 50 35 WSW 13 20 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 49 34 SW 12 19 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 48 33 SW 12 19 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 52 37 SW 12 19 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 53 39 S 14 23 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 54 42 SSE 14 23 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 55 45 SE 11 17 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 56 48 SE 11 17 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 58 51 SSE 11 17 10701 8665 465 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 59 52 SSW 11 18 11213 9224 1024 Blue 1
2 PM Wed 60 51 SW 17 25 10701 8665 465 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 59 49 SW 18 27 9220 8665 465 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 59 48 SW 19 28 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 58 45 WSW 18 27 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 57 43 WSW 17 26 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 55 40 WSW 16 24 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 54 39 WSW 16 24 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 54 39 WSW 13 20 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 53 38 W 12 19 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 52 37 SW 9 13 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 52 37 W 10 16 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 52 37 W 9 12 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 51 36 W 9 13 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 51 36 W 9 13 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 51 36 W 9 13 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 51 36 WSW 8 12 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 49 34 WSW 8 12 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 53 38 WSW 8 12 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 54 39 NE 5 9 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 54 40 NE 5 9 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 55 42 NE 5 9 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 56 44 ENE 6 10 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 57 45 ENE 6 10 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 58 46 ENE 6 10 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 59 47 NE 8 12 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 59 47 NE 8 12 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 57 44 NE 8 12 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 56 42 WNW 9 13 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 55 40 WNW 9 13 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 54 39 WNW 9 13 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 54 39 WNW 10 16 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 54 39 WNW 10 16 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 53 38 WNW 10 16 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 53 38 W 12 19 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 53 38 W 12 19 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 52 37 W 12 19 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 52 37 WNW 11 17 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 52 37 WNW 11 17 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 52 37 WNW 11 17 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 52 37 WNW 10 16 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 53 38 WNW 10 16 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 54 39 WNW 10 16 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 55 41 NNW 9 13 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 56 44 NNW 9 13 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 57 47 NNW 9 13 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 58 46 NE 13 20 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 59 48 NE 13 20 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 60 49 NE 13 20 9220 8665 465 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 61 50 NE 12 18 9930 8665 465 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 61 49 NE 12 18 9220 8665 465 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 61 48 NE 12 18 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 61 48 N 10 16 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 61 47 N 10 16 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 60 45 N 10 16 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 60 45 NW 10 16 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 59 44 NW 10 16 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 59 44 NW 10 16 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 58 43 W 11 17 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 57 42 W 11 17 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 57 42 W 11 17 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 56 41 WNW 11 17 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 56 41 WNW 11 17 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 56 41 WNW 11 17 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 56 41 WNW 11 17 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 57 42 WNW 11 17 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 59 44 WNW 11 17 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 60 46 N 9 13 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 61 49 N 9 13 9220 8665 465 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 62 51 N 9 13 10701 8665 465 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 63 55 ENE 9 13 13124 11192 2992 Blue 4
12 Noon Sat 64 57 ENE 9 13 16546 11897 3697 Blue 6
1 PM Sat 65 58 ENE 9 13 17224 12244 4044 Blue 7
2 PM Sat 66 58 NE 8 12 17224 12244 4044 Blue 7
3 PM Sat 66 57 NE 8 12 16546 11897 3697 Blue 6
4 PM Sat 66 55 NE 8 12 13124 11192 2992 Blue 4
5 PM Sat 66 54 NNE 9 13 11925 10667 2467 Blue 3
6 PM Sat 66 52 NNE 9 13 11213 9224 1024 Blue 1
7 PM Sat 65 50 NNE 9 13 9930 8665 465 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 64 49 NNW 10 16 9220 8665 465 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 63 48 NNW 10 16 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 62 47 NNW 10 16 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 61 46 WNW 9 13 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 61 46 WNW 9 13 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 60 45 WNW 9 13 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 60 45 W 9 13 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 59 44 W 9 13 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 58 43 W 9 13 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 58 43 WNW 9 13 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 60 45 WNW 9 13 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 62 47 WNW 9 13 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 64 50 ENE 9 13 9930 8665 465 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 65 53 ENE 9 13 11571 9919 1719 Blue 2
10 AM Sun 66 56 ENE 9 13 15369 11547 3347 Blue 5
11 AM Sun 66 58 E 10 16 17224 12244 4044 Blue 7
12 Noon Sun 67 60 E 10 16 18244 16361 8161 Blue 9
1 PM Sun 68 62 E 10 16 19936 17602 9402 White 11
2 PM Sun 69 62 E 9 13 19936 17602 9402 White 11
3 PM Sun 70 62 E 9 13 19936 17602 9402 White 11
4 PM Sun 70 60 E 9 13 18244 16361 8161 Blue 9
5 PM Sun 70 58 E 6 10 17224 12244 4044 Blue 7
6 PM Sun 69 55 E 6 10 13124 11192 2992 Blue 4
7 PM Sun 68 53 E 6 10 11571 9919 1719 Blue 2
8 PM Sun 67 52 NNW 9 13 11213 9224 1024 Blue 1
9 PM Sun 66 51 NNW 9 13 10701 8665 465 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 65 50 NNW 9 13 9930 8665 465 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 64 49 W 10 16 9220 8665 465 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 63 48 W 10 16 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 62 47 W 10 16 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 61 46 WSW 10 16 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 60 45 WSW 10 16 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 60 45 WSW 10 16 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 60 45 WSW 9 13 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 61 46 WSW 9 13 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 63 48 WSW 9 13 8665 8665 465 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 65 51 S 8 12 10701 8665 465 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 66 54 S 8 12 11925 10667 2467 Blue 3
10 AM Mon 68 58 S 8 12 17224 12244 4044 Blue 7
11 AM Mon 69 61 SSE 8 12 19728 17089 8889 White 10
12 Noon Mon 71 64 SSE 8 12 20349 18582 10382 White 13
1 PM Mon 72 66 SSE 8 12 20756 20756 12556 White 15
2 PM Mon 73 65 SW 6 10 20553 20553 12353 White 14
3 PM Mon 73 64 SW 6 10 20349 18582 10382 White 13
4 PM Mon 72 62 SW 6 10 19936 17602 9402 White 11
5 PM Mon 71 58 W 10 16 17224 12244 4044 Blue 7
6 PM Mon 69 55 W 10 16 13124 11192 2992 Blue 4
7 PM Mon 68 53 W 10 16 11571 9919 1719 Blue 2
8 PM Mon 66 51 W 13 20 10701 8665 465 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 65 50 W 13 20 9930 8665 465 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 64 49 W 13 20 9220 8665 465 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]