Detailed Predictions for: Slide Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 39.31966654775122, -119.8678295108672, 8200
LZ Altitude (f): 6000
Sounding

Station:

 KREV

Date/Time:

 5 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Tue 31 16 SSW 4 9 7815 8200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 31 16 SSW 4 8 7815 8200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 30 15 SSW 4 8 7815 8200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 31 16 SSW 4 8 7815 8200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 33 18 SSW 4 8 7815 8200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 36 21 S 4 10 7815 8200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 38 23 SSW 4 9 7815 8200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 24 9 N 2 8 7815 8200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 39 24 SSW 4 9 7815 8200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 41 26 SSW 4 9 7815 8200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 46 32 SSW 4 8 7815 8200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 54 41 S 4 7 7815 8200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 58 45 S 4 7 7815 8200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 60 47 S 4 6 8786 8200 0 Blue 1
2 PM Tue 61 47 S 3 4 8786 8200 0 Blue 1
3 PM Tue 62 47 SSE 3 3 8786 8200 0 Blue 1
4 PM Tue 59 44 SE 2 2 7815 8200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 54 39 ESE 1 2 7815 8200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 50 35 SSW 0 0 7815 8200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 48 33 WSW 1 3 7815 8200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 46 31 SW 2 5 7815 8200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 45 30 SW 3 6 7815 8200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 44 29 SW 4 8 7815 8200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 43 28 SW 4 9 7815 8200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 42 27 SW 4 10 7815 8200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 39 24 SW 5 10 7815 8200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 41 26 SW 5 11 7815 8200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 38 23 SW 5 11 7815 8200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 37 22 SW 5 11 7815 8200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 39 24 SW 5 11 7815 8200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 38 23 SW 6 12 7815 8200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 37 22 SW 6 12 7815 8200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 42 27 SW 6 13 7815 8200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 40 25 SW 8 18 7815 8200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 44 30 SSW 13 24 7815 8200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 55 42 SSW 15 23 7815 8200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 50 37 SW 27 36 7815 8200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 45 30 WSW 25 33 7815 8200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 49 35 SW 16 18 7815 8200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 44 29 SW 17 19 7815 8200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 40 25 SW 13 15 7815 8200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 43 28 SW 12 13 7815 8200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 40 25 SW 19 22 7815 8200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 40 25 WSW 22 25 7815 8200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 36 21 WSW 23 27 7815 8200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 39 24 WSW 20 25 7815 8200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 38 23 SW 17 23 7815 8200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 32 17 SW 17 23 7815 8200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 35 20 WSW 15 24 7815 8200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 32 17 WSW 10 20 7815 8200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 29 14 W 5 12 7815 8200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 28 13 WSW 4 9 7815 8200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 27 12 W 4 9 7815 8200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 28 13 WNW 3 7 7815 8200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 27 12 WSW 4 8 7815 8200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 27 12 WSW 4 10 7815 8200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 26 11 SW 5 10 7815 8200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 28 13 WSW 4 8 7815 8200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 31 17 W 3 5 7815 8200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 40 27 WSW 2 4 7815 8200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 36 21 WSW 3 5 7815 8200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 37 22 WSW 4 7 7815 8200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 41 26 W 5 6 7815 8200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 43 28 WSW 6 7 7815 8200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 42 27 WSW 7 8 7815 8200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 34 19 WSW 4 6 7815 8200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 34 19 WSW 4 9 7815 8200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 33 18 WSW 6 11 7815 8200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 24 9 WSW 6 11 7815 8200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 31 16 WSW 6 10 7815 8200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 30 15 WSW 6 10 7815 8200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 24 9 W 5 8 7815 8200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]