Detailed Predictions for: Slide Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 39.31966654775122, -119.8678295108672, 8200
LZ Altitude (f): 6000
Sounding

Station:

KREV

Date/Time:

23 MAY 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Thu 36 21 W 14 23 7762 8200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 33 18 W 14 23 7762 8200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 33 18 W 10 16 7762 8200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 31 16 W 10 16 7762 8200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 31 16 W 10 16 7762 8200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 30 15 NE 10 16 7762 8200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 29 14 NE 10 16 7762 8200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 32 17 NE 10 16 7762 8200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 33 19 E 11 17 7762 8200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 35 22 E 11 17 7762 8200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 36 24 E 11 17 7762 8200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 38 27 ESE 11 17 7762 8200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 40 30 ESE 11 17 8664 8200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 43 33 ESE 11 17 10255 8677 477 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 44 34 E 9 13 12255 9208 1008 White 1
3 PM Thu 44 33 E 9 13 10255 8677 477 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 45 33 E 9 13 10255 8677 477 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 44 30 S 8 12 8664 8200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 44 29 S 8 12 8106 8200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 43 28 S 8 12 7762 8200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 42 27 WNW 8 12 7762 8200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 41 26 WNW 8 12 7762 8200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 40 25 WNW 8 12 7762 8200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 39 24 S 5 9 7762 8200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 38 23 S 5 9 7762 8200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 37 22 S 5 9 7762 8200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 36 21 WSW 6 10 7762 8200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 36 21 WSW 6 10 7762 8200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 36 21 WSW 6 10 7762 8200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 36 21 WSW 8 12 7762 8200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 35 20 WSW 8 12 7762 8200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 38 23 WSW 8 12 7762 8200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 40 25 WSW 9 13 7762 8200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 42 28 WSW 9 13 7762 8200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 43 30 WSW 9 13 8664 8200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 44 32 WSW 12 19 9731 8200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 46 34 WSW 12 19 12255 9208 1008 White 1
1 PM Fri 46 35 WSW 12 19 12478 9726 1526 White 2
2 PM Fri 46 34 WSW 18 27 12255 9208 1008 White 1
3 PM Fri 45 32 WSW 18 27 9731 8200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 44 31 WSW 18 27 9205 8200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 42 28 WSW 23 34 7762 8200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 40 25 WSW 23 34 7762 8200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 39 24 WSW 23 34 7762 8200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 37 22 W 20 31 7762 8200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 36 21 W 20 31 7762 8200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 36 21 W 20 31 7762 8200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 35 20 WSW 11 17 7762 8200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 34 19 WSW 11 17 7762 8200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 33 18 WSW 11 17 7762 8200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 33 18 W 16 24 7762 8200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 32 17 W 16 24 7762 8200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 31 16 W 16 24 7762 8200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 31 16 W 16 24 7762 8200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 33 18 W 16 24 7762 8200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 35 20 W 16 24 7762 8200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 37 23 W 17 26 7762 8200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 38 26 W 17 26 7762 8200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 40 29 W 17 26 8106 8200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 41 32 W 17 26 9731 8200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 42 34 W 17 26 12255 9208 1008 White 1
1 PM Sat 44 36 W 17 26 12699 10240 2040 White 3
2 PM Sat 44 36 W 19 29 12699 10240 2040 White 3
3 PM Sat 45 36 W 19 29 12699 10240 2040 White 3
4 PM Sat 45 34 W 19 29 12255 9208 1008 White 1
5 PM Sat 44 31 W 21 33 9205 8200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 43 29 W 21 33 8106 8200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 42 27 W 21 33 7762 8200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 40 25 W 17 26 7762 8200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 39 24 W 17 26 7762 8200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 37 22 W 17 26 7762 8200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 36 21 W 11 17 7762 8200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 35 20 W 11 17 7762 8200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 34 19 W 11 17 7762 8200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 33 18 W 6 10 7762 8200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 32 17 W 6 10 7762 8200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 31 16 W 6 10 7762 8200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 31 16 WSW 5 9 7762 8200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 33 18 WSW 5 9 7762 8200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 35 20 WSW 5 9 7762 8200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 38 24 SSE 5 9 7762 8200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 41 29 SSE 5 9 8106 8200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 43 33 SSE 5 9 10255 8677 477 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 46 38 ESE 6 10 13142 13108 4908 White 5
12 Noon Sun 49 42 ESE 6 10 13629 13400 5200 Blue 9
1 PM Sun 51 44 ESE 6 10 13776 13546 5346 Blue 11
2 PM Sun 53 46 S 8 12 14061 13692 5492 Blue 13
3 PM Sun 54 45 S 8 12 13879 13619 5419 Blue 12
4 PM Sun 54 43 S 8 12 13702 13473 5273 Blue 10
5 PM Sun 54 41 W 10 16 13556 13327 5127 Blue 8
6 PM Sun 53 39 W 10 16 13362 13181 4981 White 6
7 PM Sun 52 37 W 10 16 12922 12922 4722 White 4
8 PM Sun 50 35 WNW 10 16 12478 9726 1526 White 2
9 PM Sun 48 33 WNW 10 16 10255 8677 477 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 45 30 WNW 10 16 8664 8200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 43 28 WNW 8 12 7762 8200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 42 27 WNW 8 12 7762 8200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 41 26 WNW 8 12 7762 8200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 40 25 W 6 10 7762 8200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 39 24 W 6 10 7762 8200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 38 23 W 6 10 7762 8200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 38 23 W 5 9 7762 8200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 40 25 W 5 9 7762 8200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 43 28 W 5 9 7762 8200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 46 32 E 5 9 9731 8200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 49 37 E 5 9 12922 12922 4722 White 4
10 AM Mon 52 42 E 5 9 13629 13400 5200 Blue 9
11 AM Mon 54 45 ESE 8 12 13879 13619 5419 Blue 12
12 Noon Mon 56 48 ESE 8 12 14293 13852 5652 Blue 15
1 PM Mon 58 51 ESE 8 12 14689 14275 6075 Blue 18
2 PM Mon 59 51 SSW 9 13 14689 14275 6075 Blue 18
3 PM Mon 59 50 SSW 9 13 14516 14164 5964 Blue 17
4 PM Mon 59 48 SSW 9 13 14293 13852 5652 Blue 15
5 PM Mon 58 45 W 14 23 13879 13619 5419 Blue 12
6 PM Mon 56 42 W 14 23 13629 13400 5200 Blue 9
7 PM Mon 54 39 W 14 23 13362 13181 4981 White 6
8 PM Mon 52 37 W 14 23 12922 12922 4722 White 4
9 PM Mon 50 35 W 14 23 12478 9726 1526 White 2
10 PM Mon 48 33 W 14 23 10255 8677 477 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 46 31 W 12 19 9205 8200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 45 30 W 12 19 8664 8200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 43 28 W 12 19 7762 8200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 43 28 W 10 16 7762 8200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 42 27 W 10 16 7762 8200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 41 26 W 10 16 7762 8200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 41 26 W 10 16 7762 8200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 43 28 W 10 16 7762 8200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 46 31 W 10 16 9205 8200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 48 34 WSW 8 12 12255 9208 1008 White 1
9 AM Tue 51 39 WSW 8 12 13362 13181 4981 White 6
10 AM Tue 54 44 WSW 8 12 13776 13546 5346 Blue 11
11 AM Tue 56 47 WSW 8 12 14182 13765 5565 Blue 14
12 Noon Tue 58 50 WSW 8 12 14516 14164 5964 Blue 17
1 PM Tue 59 51 WSW 8 12 14689 14275 6075 Blue 18
2 PM Tue 59 50 WSW 14 23 14516 14164 5964 Blue 17
3 PM Tue 60 50 WSW 14 23 14516 14164 5964 Blue 17
4 PM Tue 59 48 WSW 14 23 14293 13852 5652 Blue 15
5 PM Tue 58 45 W 21 33 13879 13619 5419 Blue 12
6 PM Tue 56 42 W 21 33 13629 13400 5200 Blue 9
7 PM Tue 53 38 W 21 33 13142 13108 4908 White 5
8 PM Tue 51 36 W 21 33 12699 10240 2040 White 3
9 PM Tue 49 34 W 21 33 12255 9208 1008 White 1
10 PM Tue 47 32 W 21 33 9731 8200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]