Detailed Predictions for: Slide Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 39.31966654775122, -119.8678295108672, 8200
LZ Altitude (f): 6000
Sounding

Station:

 KREV

Date/Time UTC:

 260911/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Fri 54 39 WSW 28 43 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 53 38 WSW 28 43 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 53 38 WSW 34 51 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 52 37 WSW 34 51 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 52 37 WSW 34 51 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 52 37 WSW 29 44 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 51 36 WSW 29 44 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 51 36 WSW 29 44 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 51 36 WSW 23 33 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 52 38 WSW 23 33 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 53 41 WSW 23 33 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 55 44 WSW 19 29 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 57 48 WSW 19 29 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 58 49 WSW 19 29 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 58 49 WSW 21 32 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 59 48 WSW 21 32 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 58 46 WSW 21 32 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 56 42 WSW 23 34 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 54 39 WSW 23 34 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 51 36 WSW 23 34 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 52 37 W 23 34 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 51 36 W 23 34 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 51 36 W 23 34 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 50 35 WSW 25 39 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 51 36 WSW 25 39 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 50 35 WSW 25 39 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 51 36 WSW 27 41 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 50 35 WSW 27 41 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 50 35 WSW 27 41 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 49 34 WSW 28 43 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 48 33 WSW 28 43 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 48 33 WSW 28 43 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 47 32 SW 31 47 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 49 35 SW 31 47 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 51 38 SW 31 47 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 52 41 SW 33 50 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 53 43 SW 33 50 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 53 43 SW 33 50 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 54 44 SW 35 52 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 53 42 SW 35 52 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 52 40 SW 35 52 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 49 35 WSW 43 65 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 46 31 WSW 43 65 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 45 30 WSW 43 65 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 45 30 SW 44 67 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 44 29 SW 44 67 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 44 29 SW 44 67 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 43 28 SW 48 72 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 42 27 SW 48 72 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 42 27 SW 48 72 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 41 26 WSW 43 66 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 40 25 WSW 43 66 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 39 24 WSW 43 66 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 39 24 WSW 41 62 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 38 23 WSW 41 62 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 37 22 WSW 41 62 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 37 22 W 31 47 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 38 24 W 31 47 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 39 27 W 31 47 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 41 30 WSW 21 33 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 43 33 WSW 21 33 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 45 36 WSW 21 33 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 46 36 W 14 23 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 47 36 W 14 23 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 47 35 W 14 23 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 46 32 W 11 17 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 45 30 W 11 17 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 44 29 W 11 17 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 42 27 NW 9 14 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 41 26 NW 9 14 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 40 25 NW 9 14 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 40 25 N 17 25 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 40 25 N 17 25 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 39 24 N 17 25 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 39 24 E 12 18 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 39 24 E 12 18 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 38 23 E 12 18 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 38 23 E 10 14 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 37 22 E 10 14 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 37 22 E 10 14 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 37 22 E 13 20 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 37 23 E 13 20 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 38 26 E 13 20 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 40 29 E 11 16 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 42 32 E 11 16 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 45 36 E 11 16 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 48 38 E 9 12 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 49 38 E 9 12 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 50 38 E 9 12 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 49 35 NE 2 9 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 47 32 NE 2 9 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 46 31 NE 2 9 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 45 30 NW 1 4 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 44 29 NW 1 4 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 44 29 NW 1 4 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 44 29 WSW 1 5 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 44 29 WSW 1 5 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 43 28 WSW 1 5 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 43 28 SW 1 5 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 43 28 SW 1 5 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 43 28 SW 1 5 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 43 28 SW 1 5 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 42 27 SW 1 5 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 42 27 SW 1 5 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 42 27 SSW 1 5 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 43 29 SSW 1 5 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 45 32 SSW 1 5 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 47 36 SE 3 8 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 49 39 SE 3 8 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 51 41 SE 3 8 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 52 42 SW 4 13 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 53 42 SW 4 13 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 53 40 SW 4 13 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 52 38 W 5 16 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 50 35 W 5 16 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 48 33 W 5 16 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 46 31 W 3 9 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 45 30 W 3 9 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 45 30 W 3 9 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 45 30 WSW 2 8 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 45 30 WSW 2 8 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 44 29 WSW 2 8 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 44 29 WSW 3 9 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 44 29 WSW 3 9 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 44 29 WSW 3 9 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 44 29 WSW 2 9 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 44 29 WSW 2 9 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 44 29 WSW 2 9 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 44 29 WSW 2 8 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 45 31 WSW 2 8 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 46 33 WSW 2 8 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 48 37 S 4 10 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 50 40 S 4 10 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 51 41 S 4 10 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 52 42 SW 3 12 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 53 42 SW 3 12 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 53 40 SW 3 12 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 52 38 W 3 11 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 51 36 W 3 11 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 49 34 W 3 11 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 48 33 W 1 5 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 47 32 W 1 5 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 47 32 W 1 5 9326 9326 1126 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]