Detailed Predictions for: Slide Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 8200
LZ Altitude (f): 6000
Sounding

Station:

KREV

Date/Time:

20 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 31 16 NW 21 8839 8839 639 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 31 16 NW 21 8839 8839 639 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 32 17 NW 21 8839 8839 639 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 33 18 NW 23 8839 8839 639 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 34 19 NW 23 8839 8839 639 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 35 21 NW 23 8839 8839 639 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 37 24 NW 23 8839 8839 639 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 39 27 NW 23 8839 8839 639 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 42 30 NW 23 10379 8847 647 Blue 1
2 PM Sun 43 31 NW 21 10573 9387 1187 Blue 2
3 PM Sun 43 30 NW 21 10379 8847 647 Blue 1
4 PM Sun 42 28 NW 21 9387 8839 639 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 41 26 NW 16 8839 8839 639 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 40 25 NW 16 8839 8839 639 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 39 24 NW 16 8839 8839 639 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 38 23 NW 17 8839 8839 639 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 38 23 NW 17 8839 8839 639 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 38 23 NW 17 8839 8839 639 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 37 22 W 18 8839 8839 639 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 37 22 W 18 8839 8839 639 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 37 22 W 18 8839 8839 639 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 37 22 NW 18 8839 8839 639 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 37 22 NW 18 8839 8839 639 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 37 22 NW 18 8839 8839 639 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 37 22 NW 17 8839 8839 639 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 38 23 NW 17 8839 8839 639 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 39 24 NW 17 8839 8839 639 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 41 26 NW 18 8839 8839 639 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 42 27 NW 18 8839 8839 639 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 44 30 NW 18 10379 8847 647 Blue 1
11 AM Mon 45 33 NE 17 10790 10366 2166 Blue 4
12 Noon Mon 47 35 NE 17 11745 10677 2477 Blue 6
1 PM Mon 48 37 NE 17 12130 11032 2832 Blue 8
2 PM Mon 49 37 NE 17 12130 11032 2832 Blue 8
3 PM Mon 49 36 NE 17 12001 10785 2585 Blue 7
4 PM Mon 49 35 NE 17 11745 10677 2477 Blue 6
5 PM Mon 49 34 NE 14 11077 10569 2369 Blue 5
6 PM Mon 47 32 NE 14 10682 9912 1712 Blue 3
7 PM Mon 45 30 NE 14 10379 8847 647 Blue 1
8 PM Mon 43 28 NE 14 9387 8839 639 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 42 27 NE 14 8839 8839 639 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 41 26 NE 14 8839 8839 639 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 42 27 SE 12 8839 8839 639 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 42 27 SE 12 8839 8839 639 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 42 27 SE 12 8839 8839 639 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 42 27 SE 12 8839 8839 639 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 40 25 SE 12 8839 8839 639 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 39 24 SE 12 8839 8839 639 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 39 24 SW 14 8839 8839 639 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 41 26 SW 14 8839 8839 639 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 44 29 SW 14 9920 8839 639 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 47 32 SW 14 10682 9912 1712 Blue 3
9 AM Tue 48 33 SW 14 10790 10366 2166 Blue 4
10 AM Tue 48 34 SW 14 11077 10569 2369 Blue 5
11 AM Tue 49 37 NW 10 12130 11032 2832 Blue 8
12 Noon Tue 50 38 NW 10 12259 11706 3506 Blue 9
1 PM Tue 51 40 NW 10 12752 12118 3918 Blue 11
2 PM Tue 52 40 NW 10 12752 12118 3918 Blue 11
3 PM Tue 52 39 NW 10 12387 11990 3790 Blue 10
4 PM Tue 51 37 NW 10 12130 11032 2832 Blue 8
5 PM Tue 50 35 N 12 11745 10677 2477 Blue 6
6 PM Tue 49 34 N 12 11077 10569 2369 Blue 5
7 PM Tue 47 32 N 12 10682 9912 1712 Blue 3
8 PM Tue 46 31 N 12 10573 9387 1187 Blue 2
9 PM Tue 45 30 N 12 10379 8847 647 Blue 1
10 PM Tue 44 29 N 12 9920 8839 639 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 43 28 N 13 9387 8839 639 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 43 28 N 13 9387 8839 639 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 42 27 N 13 8839 8839 639 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 41 26 N 13 8839 8839 639 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 40 25 N 13 8839 8839 639 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 39 24 N 13 8839 8839 639 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 39 24 NE 14 8839 8839 639 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 39 24 NE 14 8839 8839 639 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 39 24 NE 14 8839 8839 639 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 40 25 NE 14 8839 8839 639 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 42 27 NE 14 8839 8839 639 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 43 29 NE 14 9920 8839 639 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 44 31 NE 14 10573 9387 1187 Blue 2
12 Noon Wed 44 32 NE 14 10682 9912 1712 Blue 3
1 PM Wed 43 31 NE 14 10573 9387 1187 Blue 2
2 PM Wed 43 31 NE 14 10573 9387 1187 Blue 2
3 PM Wed 43 30 NE 14 10379 8847 647 Blue 1
4 PM Wed 44 30 NE 14 10379 8847 647 Blue 1
5 PM Wed 43 28 NE 13 9387 8839 639 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 41 26 NE 13 8839 8839 639 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 38 23 NE 13 8839 8839 639 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 37 22 NE 13 8839 8839 639 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 37 22 NE 13 8839 8839 639 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 39 24 NE 13 8839 8839 639 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 40 25 NE 15 8839 8839 639 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 38 23 NE 15 8839 8839 639 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 36 21 NE 15 8839 8839 639 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 34 19 NE 15 8839 8839 639 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 34 19 NE 15 8839 8839 639 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 35 20 NE 15 8839 8839 639 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 36 21 E 15 8839 8839 639 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 36 21 E 15 8839 8839 639 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 36 21 E 15 8839 8839 639 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 37 22 E 15 8839 8839 639 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 39 24 E 15 8839 8839 639 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 42 28 E 15 9387 8839 639 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 44 31 E 16 10573 9387 1187 Blue 2
12 Noon Thu 43 31 E 16 10573 9387 1187 Blue 2
1 PM Thu 41 29 E 16 9920 8839 639 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 40 27 E 16 8839 8839 639 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 42 29 E 16 9920 8839 639 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 45 31 E 16 10573 9387 1187 Blue 2
5 PM Thu 46 31 E 13 10573 9387 1187 Blue 2
6 PM Thu 43 28 E 13 9387 8839 639 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 38 23 E 13 8839 8839 639 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 35 20 E 13 8839 8839 639 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 36 21 E 13 8839 8839 639 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 39 24 E 13 8839 8839 639 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 41 26 SE 13 8839 8839 639 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 40 25 SE 13 8839 8839 639 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 37 22 SE 13 8839 8839 639 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 35 20 SE 13 8839 8839 639 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 35 20 SE 13 8839 8839 639 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 37 22 SE 13 8839 8839 639 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 38 23 SE 10 8839 8839 639 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 38 23 SE 10 8839 8839 639 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 38 23 SE 10 8839 8839 639 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 39 24 SE 10 8839 8839 639 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 43 28 SE 10 9387 8839 639 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 47 33 SE 10 10790 10366 2166 Blue 4
11 AM Fri 50 37 SE 10 12130 11032 2832 Blue 8
12 Noon Fri 50 38 SE 10 12259 11706 3506 Blue 9
1 PM Fri 48 36 SE 10 12001 10785 2585 Blue 7
2 PM Fri 47 35 SE 10 11745 10677 2477 Blue 6
3 PM Fri 47 34 SE 10 11077 10569 2369 Blue 5
4 PM Fri 49 35 SE 10 11745 10677 2477 Blue 6
5 PM Fri 49 34 NW 12 11077 10569 2369 Blue 5
6 PM Fri 47 32 NW 12 10682 9912 1712 Blue 3
7 PM Fri 43 28 NW 12 9387 8839 639 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 41 26 NW 12 8839 8839 639 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 41 26 NW 12 8839 8839 639 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 41 26 NW 12 8839 8839 639 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 42 27 SW 14 8839 8839 639 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 42 27 SW 14 8839 8839 639 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 40 25 SW 14 8839 8839 639 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 39 24 SW 14 8839 8839 639 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 39 24 SW 14 8839 8839 639 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 38 23 SW 14 8839 8839 639 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]