Detailed Predictions for: Slide Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 39.31966654775122, -119.8678295108672, 8200
LZ Altitude (f): 6000
Sounding

Station:

 KREV

Date/Time UTC:

 241208/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Sun 39 24 WNW 17 23 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 39 24 WNW 13 19 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 39 24 WNW 11 19 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 34 19 WNW 11 19 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 32 17 WNW 18 27 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 32 17 WNW 18 27 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 31 16 WNW 18 27 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 31 16 NW 14 21 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 30 15 NW 14 21 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 31 16 NW 14 21 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 32 18 NNW 13 20 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 33 19 NNW 13 20 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 34 20 NNW 13 20 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 35 21 NW 14 23 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 36 22 NW 14 23 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 33 18 NW 14 23 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 31 16 WNW 17 26 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 30 15 WNW 17 26 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 27 12 WNW 17 26 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 27 12 NW 18 27 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 27 12 NW 18 27 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 27 12 NW 18 27 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 24 9 NNW 19 28 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 24 9 NNW 19 28 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 23 8 NNW 19 28 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 23 8 NNW 20 31 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 22 7 NNW 20 31 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 21 6 NNW 20 31 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 20 5 N 21 32 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 20 5 N 21 32 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 18 3 N 21 32 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 19 4 NNE 20 31 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 20 5 NNE 20 31 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 20 5 NNE 20 31 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 22 8 E 23 34 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 22 8 E 23 34 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 23 10 E 23 34 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 24 10 E 21 33 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 24 10 E 21 33 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 22 7 E 21 33 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 21 6 E 24 35 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 20 5 E 24 35 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 19 4 E 24 35 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 19 4 ESE 23 34 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 19 4 ESE 23 34 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 19 4 ESE 23 34 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 19 4 SSE 20 32 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 20 5 SSE 20 32 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 20 5 SSE 20 32 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 20 5 SSE 17 25 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 21 6 SSE 17 25 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 21 6 SSE 17 25 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 21 6 S 12 19 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 20 5 S 12 19 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 19 4 S 12 19 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 18 3 S 12 18 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 19 4 S 12 18 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 21 6 S 12 18 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 24 10 SSE 10 14 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 26 12 SSE 10 14 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 28 14 SSE 10 14 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 29 15 SE 10 14 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 28 13 SE 10 14 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 26 11 SE 10 14 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 25 10 SE 10 16 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 24 9 SE 10 16 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 24 9 SE 10 16 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 24 9 SW 11 18 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 24 9 SW 11 18 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 25 10 SW 11 18 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 26 11 SW 11 18 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 26 11 SW 11 18 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 26 11 SW 11 18 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 27 12 WSW 12 19 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 27 12 WSW 12 19 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 27 12 WSW 12 19 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 27 12 W 12 19 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 27 12 W 12 19 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 27 12 W 12 19 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 27 12 WSW 10 16 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 28 13 WSW 10 16 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 30 15 WSW 10 16 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 31 16 W 6 10 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 33 19 W 6 10 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 35 21 W 6 10 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 35 21 NW 5 9 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 34 19 NW 5 9 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 32 17 NW 5 9 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 29 14 WNW 5 8 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 28 13 WNW 5 8 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 26 11 WNW 5 8 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 26 11 W 10 14 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 26 11 W 10 14 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 27 12 W 10 14 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 28 13 WSW 14 23 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 28 13 WSW 14 23 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 29 14 WSW 14 23 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 29 14 WSW 19 29 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 29 14 WSW 19 29 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 29 14 WSW 19 29 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 29 14 WSW 24 35 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 29 14 WSW 24 35 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 28 13 WSW 24 35 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 28 13 WSW 21 33 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 29 14 WSW 21 33 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 30 15 WSW 21 33 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 32 17 WSW 18 26 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 34 20 WSW 18 26 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 35 21 WSW 18 26 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 35 21 W 16 24 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 34 19 W 16 24 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 31 16 W 16 24 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 29 14 WSW 13 20 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 28 13 WSW 13 20 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 28 13 WSW 13 20 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 28 13 WSW 20 29 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 28 13 WSW 20 29 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 28 13 WSW 20 29 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 28 13 WSW 25 37 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 28 13 WSW 25 37 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 29 14 WSW 25 37 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 29 14 SW 26 39 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 29 14 SW 26 39 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 28 13 SW 26 39 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 28 13 WSW 26 40 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 28 13 WSW 26 40 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 28 13 WSW 26 40 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 28 13 SW 25 37 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 29 14 SW 25 37 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 29 14 SW 25 37 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 30 15 SW 20 29 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 32 17 SW 20 29 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 33 19 SW 20 29 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 34 19 SW 19 28 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 32 17 SW 19 28 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 30 15 SW 19 28 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 28 13 SW 19 28 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 28 13 SW 19 28 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 28 13 SW 19 28 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 28 13 SW 21 33 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 28 13 SW 21 33 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 28 13 SW 21 33 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 28 13 SW 24 35 9244 9244 1044 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]