Detailed Predictions for: Inspiration Point
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 40.3011, -111.626, 6700
LZ Altitude (f): 4900
Sounding

Station:

KSLC

Date/Time:

23 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
1 AM Wed 71 71 S 14 20 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 65 65 S 14 20 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 65 65 S 13 20 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 65 65 S 13 20 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 64 64 S 13 20 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 64 64 SSE 12 18 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 64 64 SSE 12 18 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 67 67 SSE 12 18 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 71 72 SSW 10 17 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 71 73 SSW 10 17 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 73 76 SSW 10 17 9876 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 74 78 SW 10 17 13158 8578 1878 Blue 2
1 PM Wed 76 81 SW 10 17 17038 13001 6301 Blue 4
2 PM Wed 77 82 SW 10 17 18767 13618 6918 Blue 5
3 PM Wed 76 80 WSW 11 18 14327 10710 4010 Blue 3
4 PM Wed 76 79 WSW 11 18 13754 9760 3060 Blue 3
5 PM Wed 75 77 WSW 11 18 11321 7138 438 Blue 1
6 PM Wed 81 81 SW 9 14 17038 13001 6301 Blue 4
7 PM Wed 80 80 SW 9 14 14327 10710 4010 Blue 3
8 PM Wed 78 78 SW 9 14 13158 8578 1878 Blue 2
9 PM Wed 74 74 S 9 14 7177 6700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 72 72 S 9 14 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 69 69 S 9 14 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 68 68 S 11 17 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 67 67 S 11 17 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 66 66 S 11 17 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 64 64 S 11 17 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 61 61 S 11 17 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 61 61 S 11 17 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 61 61 SSE 8 13 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 59 59 SSE 8 13 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 59 59 SSE 8 13 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 63 63 SW 6 11 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 62 63 SW 6 11 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 60 62 SW 6 11 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 62 65 WSW 6 11 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 63 66 WSW 6 11 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 64 67 WSW 6 11 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 66 68 W 10 14 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 68 70 W 10 14 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 71 72 W 10 14 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 72 73 NW 9 14 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 71 71 NW 9 14 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 69 69 NW 9 14 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 66 66 W 5 8 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 65 65 W 5 8 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 64 64 W 5 8 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 63 63 E 6 9 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 62 62 E 6 9 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 61 61 E 6 9 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 61 61 ESE 6 10 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 60 60 ESE 6 10 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 59 59 ESE 6 10 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 59 59 ESE 6 10 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 61 61 ESE 6 10 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 64 64 ESE 6 10 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 65 66 SSW 5 10 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 66 68 SSW 5 10 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 66 69 SSW 5 10 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 65 68 W 6 10 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 66 69 W 6 10 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 66 69 W 6 10 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 68 71 NW 9 13 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 70 72 NW 9 13 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 73 74 NW 9 13 7177 6700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 74 75 N 9 13 8667 6700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 73 73 N 9 13 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 70 70 N 9 13 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 68 68 NE 5 9 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 66 66 NE 5 9 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 65 65 NE 5 9 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 64 64 E 9 13 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 63 63 E 9 13 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 61 61 E 9 13 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 60 60 E 10 13 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 59 59 E 10 13 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 58 58 E 10 13 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 60 60 E 10 13 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 63 63 E 10 13 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 66 66 E 10 13 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 68 70 ENE 6 11 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 69 73 ENE 6 11 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 70 75 ENE 6 11 8667 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 70 74 NW 9 13 7177 6700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 71 76 NW 9 13 9876 6700 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 71 76 NW 9 13 9876 6700 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 72 76 NW 9 14 9876 6700 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 74 77 NW 9 14 11321 7138 438 Blue 1
5 PM Sat 75 77 NW 9 14 11321 7138 438 Blue 1
6 PM Sat 76 77 N 10 16 11321 7138 438 Blue 1
7 PM Sat 75 75 N 10 16 8667 6700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 73 73 N 10 16 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 71 71 NE 8 11 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 70 70 NE 8 11 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 68 68 NE 8 11 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 67 67 E 10 16 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 66 66 E 10 16 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 65 65 E 10 16 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 64 64 E 10 17 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 62 62 E 10 17 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 61 61 E 10 17 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 61 61 E 10 17 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 63 63 E 10 17 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 66 67 E 10 17 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 69 71 E 9 16 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 71 75 E 9 16 8667 6700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 72 78 E 9 16 13158 8578 1878 Blue 2
12 Noon Sun 73 80 NNW 8 14 14327 10710 4010 Blue 3
1 PM Sun 74 82 NNW 8 14 18767 13618 6918 Blue 5
2 PM Sun 75 83 NNW 8 14 19231 14185 7485 Blue 6
3 PM Sun 76 82 NW 10 17 18767 13618 6918 Blue 5
4 PM Sun 78 83 NW 10 17 19231 14185 7485 Blue 6
5 PM Sun 81 84 NW 10 17 19557 15974 9274 Blue 7
6 PM Sun 82 84 NNW 11 17 19557 15974 9274 Blue 7
7 PM Sun 81 81 NNW 11 17 17038 13001 6301 Blue 4
8 PM Sun 78 78 NNW 11 17 13158 8578 1878 Blue 2
9 PM Sun 75 75 NE 8 11 8667 6700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 73 73 NE 8 11 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 72 72 NE 8 11 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 71 71 E 11 16 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 69 69 E 11 16 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 68 68 E 11 16 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 66 66 E 11 17 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 64 64 E 11 17 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 63 63 E 11 17 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 63 63 E 11 18 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 65 65 E 11 18 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 68 69 E 11 18 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 71 73 ESE 9 16 5955 6700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 73 77 ESE 9 16 11321 7138 438 Blue 1
11 AM Mon 74 80 ESE 9 16 14327 10710 4010 Blue 3
12 Noon Mon 75 83 SE 6 11 19231 14185 7485 Blue 6
1 PM Mon 76 84 SE 6 11 19557 15974 9274 Blue 7
2 PM Mon 78 86 SE 6 11 20558 18965 12265 Blue 9
3 PM Mon 79 86 WNW 10 16 20558 18965 12265 Blue 9
4 PM Mon 81 86 WNW 10 16 20558 18965 12265 Blue 9
5 PM Mon 83 87 WNW 10 16 21153 19414 12714 Blue 10
6 PM Mon 84 86 NW 9 14 20558 18965 12265 Blue 9
7 PM Mon 82 83 NW 9 14 19231 14185 7485 Blue 6
8 PM Mon 79 79 NW 9 14 13754 9760 3060 Blue 3
9 PM Mon 76 76 NE 6 10 9876 6700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 74 74 NE 6 10 7177 6700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 73 73 NE 6 10 5955 6700 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]