Detailed Predictions for: Inspiration Point
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 40.3011, -111.626, 6700
LZ Altitude (f): 4900
Sounding

Station:

 KSLC

Date/Time UTC:

 260911/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Fri 62 62 NE 4 10 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 62 62 NE 4 10 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 62 62 NE 4 10 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 62 62 NE 4 10 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 63 63 NE 4 10 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 63 63 NE 4 10 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 63 63 ESE 4 11 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 62 62 ESE 4 11 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 61 61 ESE 4 11 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 63 63 S 5 12 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 66 67 S 5 12 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 68 70 S 5 12 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 69 73 SW 8 17 9182 6700 0 Blue 1
1 PM Fri 72 77 SW 8 17 14733 10959 4259 White 5
2 PM Fri 73 78 SW 8 17 14948 12010 5310 White 6
3 PM Fri 73 77 SW 8 18 14733 10959 4259 White 5
4 PM Fri 74 77 SW 8 18 14733 10959 4259 White 5
5 PM Fri 72 74 SW 8 18 11125 6700 0 Blue 2
6 PM Fri 71 71 WSW 6 17 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 68 68 WSW 6 17 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 64 64 WSW 6 17 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 64 64 SSE 4 10 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 63 63 SSE 4 10 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 63 63 SSE 4 10 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 63 63 SSE 5 11 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 62 62 SSE 5 11 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 62 62 SSE 5 11 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 61 61 SE 6 13 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 61 61 SE 6 13 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 61 61 SE 6 13 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 61 61 SE 6 13 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 61 61 SE 6 13 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 60 60 SE 6 13 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 64 64 SSE 6 16 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 68 69 SSE 6 16 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 70 73 SSE 6 16 9182 6700 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sat 72 76 SSW 11 23 13553 8927 2227 Blue 4
1 PM Sat 75 79 SSW 11 23 15164 13291 6591 White 7
2 PM Sat 76 80 SSW 11 23 15378 14500 7800 White 8
3 PM Sat 76 80 SSW 13 25 15378 14500 7800 White 8
4 PM Sat 77 80 SSW 13 25 15378 14500 7800 White 8
5 PM Sat 76 78 SSW 13 25 14948 12010 5310 White 6
6 PM Sat 75 75 SSW 12 24 12272 6700 0 Blue 3
7 PM Sat 72 72 SSW 12 24 6691 6700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 70 70 SSW 12 24 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 69 69 S 14 28 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 69 69 S 14 28 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 69 69 S 14 28 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 69 69 S 19 32 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 69 69 S 19 32 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 69 69 S 19 32 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 68 68 S 18 31 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 67 67 S 18 31 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 66 66 S 18 31 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 65 65 SSE 17 27 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 64 64 SSE 17 27 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 63 63 SSE 17 27 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 63 63 S 14 26 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 63 64 S 14 26 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 64 67 S 14 26 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 65 68 SW 17 29 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 67 71 SW 17 29 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 68 72 SW 17 29 6691 6700 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 69 73 WSW 12 25 9182 6700 0 Blue 1
4 PM Sun 68 71 WSW 12 25 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 66 67 WSW 12 25 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 64 64 W 9 19 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 62 62 W 9 19 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 59 59 W 9 19 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 57 57 NW 8 18 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 56 56 NW 8 18 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 55 55 NW 8 18 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 55 55 N 4 10 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 54 54 N 4 10 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 53 53 N 4 10 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 52 52 N 3 8 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 51 51 N 3 8 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 51 51 N 3 8 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 51 51 NE 2 8 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 52 52 NE 2 8 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 52 52 NE 2 8 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 53 54 NW 3 8 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 55 57 NW 3 8 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 58 61 NW 3 8 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 60 65 W 4 10 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 62 67 W 4 10 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 64 69 W 4 10 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 65 70 W 5 13 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 64 67 W 5 13 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 63 65 W 5 13 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 61 62 WNW 5 11 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 59 59 WNW 5 11 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 57 57 WNW 5 11 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 55 55 N 3 8 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 54 54 N 3 8 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 54 54 N 3 8 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 54 54 ENE 3 8 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 53 53 ENE 3 8 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 52 52 ENE 3 8 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 52 52 E 4 9 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 52 52 E 4 9 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 52 52 E 4 9 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 53 53 E 5 12 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 54 54 E 5 12 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 56 56 E 5 12 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 58 58 ESE 6 12 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 60 61 ESE 6 12 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 63 66 ESE 6 12 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 65 69 SW 9 18 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 67 72 SW 9 18 6691 6700 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 69 74 SW 9 18 11125 6700 0 Blue 2
3 PM Tue 70 74 WSW 12 23 11125 6700 0 Blue 2
4 PM Tue 69 72 WSW 12 23 6691 6700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 67 69 WSW 12 23 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 65 65 WSW 9 20 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 62 62 WSW 9 20 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 60 60 WSW 9 20 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 58 58 ESE 6 11 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 57 57 ESE 6 11 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 57 57 ESE 6 11 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 57 57 ESE 10 17 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 56 56 ESE 10 17 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 55 55 ESE 10 17 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 55 55 ESE 10 17 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 55 55 ESE 10 17 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 55 55 ESE 10 17 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 56 56 ESE 10 18 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 57 57 ESE 10 18 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 59 59 ESE 10 18 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 61 61 SE 8 16 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 63 64 SE 8 16 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 64 66 SE 8 16 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 66 70 SW 8 16 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 68 72 SW 8 16 6691 6700 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 69 73 SW 8 16 9182 6700 0 Blue 1
3 PM Wed 70 74 WSW 9 18 11125 6700 0 Blue 2
4 PM Wed 69 72 WSW 9 18 6691 6700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 67 68 WSW 9 18 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 65 65 WSW 6 13 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 63 63 WSW 6 13 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 61 61 WSW 6 13 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 59 59 E 6 11 6189 6700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 58 58 E 6 11 6189 6700 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]