Detailed Predictions for: Inspiration Point
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 40.3011, -111.626, 6700
LZ Altitude (f): 4900
Sounding

Station:

KSLC

Date/Time:

23 MAY 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Thu 50 50 SW 3 6 12478 12396 5696 White 13
1 AM Thu 49 49 SW 3 6 12265 11920 5220 White 12
2 AM Thu 47 47 SW 3 6 11838 11394 4694 White 10
3 AM Thu 45 45 ESE 2 3 11409 10904 4204 White 8
4 AM Thu 42 42 ESE 2 3 10763 10180 3480 White 5
5 AM Thu 41 41 ESE 2 3 10546 9680 2980 White 4
6 AM Thu 40 40 SW 4 8 10327 7445 745 White 3
7 AM Thu 38 38 SW 4 8 9836 6700 0 Blue 1
8 AM Thu 40 40 SW 4 8 10327 7445 745 White 3
9 AM Thu 40 42 WNW 12 21 10763 10180 3480 White 5
10 AM Thu 42 45 WNW 12 21 11409 10904 4204 White 8
11 AM Thu 42 46 WNW 12 21 11623 11166 4466 White 9
12 Noon Thu 44 50 WNW 18 25 12478 12396 5696 White 13
1 PM Thu 44 51 WNW 18 25 12689 12689 5989 White 14
2 PM Thu 45 52 WNW 18 25 12900 12900 6200 White 15
3 PM Thu 47 53 NW 13 20 13110 13110 6410 White 16
4 PM Thu 47 52 NW 13 20 12900 12900 6200 White 15
5 PM Thu 48 51 NW 13 20 12689 12689 5989 White 14
6 PM Thu 49 50 NW 10 17 12478 12396 5696 White 13
7 PM Thu 48 48 NW 10 17 12052 11620 4920 White 11
8 PM Thu 46 46 NW 10 17 11623 11166 4466 White 9
9 PM Thu 42 42 ENE 8 11 10763 10180 3480 White 5
10 PM Thu 40 40 ENE 8 11 10327 7445 745 White 3
11 PM Thu 39 39 ENE 8 11 10108 6700 0 White 2
12 Midnight Fri 39 39 E 10 13 10108 6700 0 White 2
1 AM Fri 37 37 E 10 13 7581 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 39 39 E 10 13 10108 6700 0 White 2
3 AM Fri 39 39 ESE 4 9 10108 6700 0 White 2
4 AM Fri 39 39 ESE 4 9 10108 6700 0 White 2
5 AM Fri 40 40 ESE 4 9 10327 7445 745 White 3
6 AM Fri 40 40 ESE 2 5 10327 7445 745 White 3
7 AM Fri 42 42 ESE 2 5 10763 10180 3480 White 5
8 AM Fri 45 45 ESE 2 5 11409 10904 4204 White 8
9 AM Fri 48 48 SW 3 5 12052 11620 4920 White 11
10 AM Fri 49 50 SW 3 5 12478 12396 5696 White 13
11 AM Fri 51 52 SW 3 5 12900 12900 6200 White 15
12 Noon Fri 52 53 SE 5 11 13110 13110 6410 White 16
1 PM Fri 53 54 SE 5 11 13320 13320 6620 White 17
2 PM Fri 53 54 SE 5 11 13320 13320 6620 White 17
3 PM Fri 54 55 E 5 11 13530 13530 6830 White 18
4 PM Fri 55 55 E 5 11 13530 13530 6830 White 18
5 PM Fri 56 56 E 5 11 13739 13739 7039 White 19
6 PM Fri 55 55 E 5 11 13530 13530 6830 White 18
7 PM Fri 53 53 E 5 11 13110 13110 6410 White 16
8 PM Fri 50 50 E 5 11 12478 12396 5696 White 13
9 PM Fri 47 47 ENE 5 11 11838 11394 4694 White 10
10 PM Fri 46 46 ENE 5 11 11623 11166 4466 White 9
11 PM Fri 45 45 ENE 5 11 11409 10904 4204 White 8
12 Midnight Sat 45 45 ESE 5 11 11409 10904 4204 White 8
1 AM Sat 45 45 ESE 5 11 11409 10904 4204 White 8
2 AM Sat 45 45 ESE 5 11 11409 10904 4204 White 8
3 AM Sat 45 45 SE 5 11 11409 10904 4204 White 8
4 AM Sat 45 45 SE 5 11 11409 10904 4204 White 8
5 AM Sat 44 44 SE 5 11 11194 10541 3841 White 7
6 AM Sat 44 44 SSE 5 11 11194 10541 3841 White 7
7 AM Sat 45 45 SSE 5 11 11409 10904 4204 White 8
8 AM Sat 46 46 SSE 5 11 11623 11166 4466 White 9
9 AM Sat 48 48 SSW 5 11 12052 11620 4920 White 11
10 AM Sat 48 48 SSW 5 11 12052 11620 4920 White 11
11 AM Sat 48 49 SSW 5 11 12265 11920 5220 White 12
12 Noon Sat 48 48 WSW 8 13 12052 11620 4920 White 11
1 PM Sat 49 50 WSW 8 13 12478 12396 5696 White 13
2 PM Sat 50 51 WSW 8 13 12689 12689 5989 White 14
3 PM Sat 51 51 W 6 13 12689 12689 5989 White 14
4 PM Sat 52 52 W 6 13 12900 12900 6200 White 15
5 PM Sat 52 52 W 6 13 12900 12900 6200 White 15
6 PM Sat 52 52 W 5 11 12900 12900 6200 White 15
7 PM Sat 50 50 W 5 11 12478 12396 5696 White 13
8 PM Sat 48 48 W 5 11 12052 11620 4920 White 11
9 PM Sat 46 46 W 4 9 11623 11166 4466 White 9
10 PM Sat 45 45 W 4 9 11409 10904 4204 White 8
11 PM Sat 45 45 W 4 9 11409 10904 4204 White 8
12 Midnight Sun 45 45 N 4 9 11409 10904 4204 White 8
1 AM Sun 44 44 N 4 9 11194 10541 3841 White 7
2 AM Sun 44 44 N 4 9 11194 10541 3841 White 7
3 AM Sun 43 43 NE 3 6 10980 10361 3661 White 6
4 AM Sun 42 42 NE 3 6 10763 10180 3480 White 5
5 AM Sun 41 41 NE 3 6 10546 9680 2980 White 4
6 AM Sun 40 40 ESE 3 8 10327 7445 745 White 3
7 AM Sun 42 42 ESE 3 8 10763 10180 3480 White 5
8 AM Sun 44 44 ESE 3 8 11194 10541 3841 White 7
9 AM Sun 46 48 W 4 10 12052 11620 4920 White 11
10 AM Sun 49 52 W 4 10 12900 12900 6200 White 15
11 AM Sun 51 55 W 4 10 13530 13530 6830 White 18
12 Noon Sun 53 59 W 6 13 14365 14140 7440 White 22
1 PM Sun 54 60 W 6 13 14573 14424 7724 White 23
2 PM Sun 55 61 W 6 13 14780 14735 8035 White 24
3 PM Sun 56 62 WNW 6 13 14987 14987 8287 White 25
4 PM Sun 57 62 WNW 6 13 14987 14987 8287 White 25
5 PM Sun 58 61 WNW 6 13 14780 14735 8035 White 24
6 PM Sun 58 59 WNW 5 12 14365 14140 7440 White 22
7 PM Sun 56 56 WNW 5 12 13739 13739 7039 White 19
8 PM Sun 53 53 WNW 5 12 13110 13110 6410 White 16
9 PM Sun 50 50 N 3 9 12478 12396 5696 White 13
10 PM Sun 49 49 N 3 9 12265 11920 5220 White 12
11 PM Sun 48 48 N 3 9 12052 11620 4920 White 11
12 Midnight Mon 47 47 E 3 8 11838 11394 4694 White 10
1 AM Mon 46 46 E 3 8 11623 11166 4466 White 9
2 AM Mon 46 46 E 3 8 11623 11166 4466 White 9
3 AM Mon 45 45 E 4 9 11409 10904 4204 White 8
4 AM Mon 44 44 E 4 9 11194 10541 3841 White 7
5 AM Mon 43 43 E 4 9 10980 10361 3661 White 6
6 AM Mon 43 43 E 4 10 10980 10361 3661 White 6
7 AM Mon 45 45 E 4 10 11409 10904 4204 White 8
8 AM Mon 48 49 E 4 10 12265 11920 5220 White 12
9 AM Mon 52 54 SE 2 6 13320 13320 6620 White 17
10 AM Mon 55 59 SE 2 6 14365 14140 7440 White 22
11 AM Mon 58 64 SE 2 6 15398 15398 8698 White 27
12 Noon Mon 61 68 WSW 3 8 16214 16214 9514 White 31
1 PM Mon 63 71 WSW 3 8 16819 16819 10119 White 34
2 PM Mon 64 72 WSW 3 8 17020 17020 10320 White 35
3 PM Mon 65 72 W 3 10 17020 17020 10320 White 35
4 PM Mon 67 72 W 3 10 17020 17020 10320 White 35
5 PM Mon 67 70 W 3 10 16618 16618 9918 White 33
6 PM Mon 67 69 WNW 3 9 16415 16415 9715 White 32
7 PM Mon 64 64 WNW 3 9 15398 15398 8698 White 27
8 PM Mon 61 61 WNW 3 9 14780 14735 8035 White 24
9 PM Mon 58 58 NE 3 8 14157 13994 7294 White 21
10 PM Mon 56 56 NE 3 8 13739 13739 7039 White 19
11 PM Mon 55 55 NE 3 8 13530 13530 6830 White 18
12 Midnight Tue 54 54 ENE 5 9 13320 13320 6620 White 17
1 AM Tue 53 53 ENE 5 9 13110 13110 6410 White 16
2 AM Tue 53 53 ENE 5 9 13110 13110 6410 White 16
3 AM Tue 52 52 E 5 11 12900 12900 6200 White 15
4 AM Tue 51 51 E 5 11 12689 12689 5989 White 14
5 AM Tue 50 50 E 5 11 12478 12396 5696 White 13
6 AM Tue 50 50 E 5 11 12478 12396 5696 White 13
7 AM Tue 52 52 E 5 11 12900 12900 6200 White 15
8 AM Tue 55 56 E 5 11 13739 13739 7039 White 19
9 AM Tue 59 61 ESE 4 10 14780 14735 8035 White 24
10 AM Tue 62 66 ESE 4 10 15809 15809 9109 White 29
11 AM Tue 65 71 ESE 4 10 16819 16819 10119 White 34
12 Noon Tue 68 75 SW 3 10 17622 17622 10922 White 38
1 PM Tue 70 78 SW 3 10 18217 18217 11517 White 41
2 PM Tue 71 79 SW 3 10 18451 18451 11751 White 42
3 PM Tue 71 77 WSW 5 11 18021 18021 11321 White 40
4 PM Tue 73 78 WSW 5 11 18217 18217 11517 White 41
5 PM Tue 73 76 WSW 5 11 17821 17821 11121 White 39
6 PM Tue 73 74 SW 5 12 17421 17421 10721 White 37
7 PM Tue 70 70 SW 5 12 16618 16618 9918 White 33
8 PM Tue 66 66 SW 5 12 15809 15809 9109 White 29
9 PM Tue 62 62 E 5 10 14987 14987 8287 White 25
10 PM Tue 60 60 E 5 10 14573 14424 7724 White 23

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]