Detailed Predictions for: Inspiration Point
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 40.3011, -111.626, 6700
LZ Altitude (f): 4900
Sounding

Station:

KSLC

Date/Time:

21 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 50 50 NE 4 5 9510 6700 0 Blue 2
1 AM Tue 49 49 NE 4 6 9433 6700 0 Blue 1
2 AM Tue 49 49 ENE 4 6 9433 6700 0 Blue 1
3 AM Tue 48 48 E 3 5 9357 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 47 47 E 3 4 5194 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 47 47 E 3 5 5194 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 46 46 E 3 5 5194 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 46 46 ENE 3 5 5194 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 48 48 E 2 3 9357 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 52 52 SE 2 2 9672 9426 2726 Blue 4
10 AM Tue 55 57 SSW 2 2 11883 11327 4627 Blue 9
11 AM Tue 53 56 SW 4 4 11770 10458 3758 Blue 8
12 Noon Tue 59 64 WSW 4 5 14089 12720 6020 Blue 16
1 PM Tue 59 64 WSW 3 4 14089 12720 6020 Blue 16
2 PM Tue 62 67 WSW 3 4 15410 13972 7272 Blue 19
3 PM Tue 64 68 WSW 2 3 15598 14471 7771 Blue 20
4 PM Tue 66 69 WSW 2 2 15742 14967 8267 Blue 20
5 PM Tue 66 68 SW 2 2 15598 14471 7771 Blue 20
6 PM Tue 65 65 WSW 1 1 14606 13145 6445 Blue 17
7 PM Tue 62 62 SSE 0 1 13238 12089 5389 Blue 14
8 PM Tue 57 57 E 2 4 11883 11327 4627 Blue 9
9 PM Tue 56 56 NE 3 6 11770 10458 3758 Blue 8
10 PM Tue 54 54 NE 2 6 11364 9579 2879 Blue 6
11 PM Tue 54 54 ENE 2 6 11364 9579 2879 Blue 6
12 Midnight Wed 57 57 E 3 6 11883 11327 4627 Blue 9
1 AM Wed 57 57 E 3 6 11883 11327 4627 Blue 9
2 AM Wed 56 56 E 3 6 11770 10458 3758 Blue 8
3 AM Wed 56 56 E 3 6 11770 10458 3758 Blue 8
4 AM Wed 55 55 E 3 6 11609 9661 2961 Blue 7
5 AM Wed 55 55 E 3 6 11609 9661 2961 Blue 7
6 AM Wed 55 55 E 3 6 11609 9661 2961 Blue 7
7 AM Wed 54 54 E 4 7 11364 9579 2879 Blue 6
8 AM Wed 56 56 E 3 6 11770 10458 3758 Blue 8
9 AM Wed 61 61 SE 2 2 12809 11976 5276 Blue 13
10 AM Wed 64 66 SSW 2 3 15087 13563 6863 Blue 18
11 AM Wed 63 66 SW 3 5 15087 13563 6863 Blue 18
12 Noon Wed 67 72 WSW 3 4 16713 15698 8998 Blue 23
1 PM Wed 72 77 WSW 2 3 17690 17035 10335 Blue 28
2 PM Wed 73 78 W 1 2 17829 17230 10530 Blue 29
3 PM Wed 75 79 W 1 1 17941 17423 10723 Blue 30
4 PM Wed 77 80 W 0 0 18053 17616 10916 Blue 31
5 PM Wed 76 77 SE 0 0 17690 17035 10335 Blue 28
6 PM Wed 78 78 SE 0 0 17829 17230 10530 Blue 29
7 PM Wed 72 72 E 1 2 16713 15698 8998 Blue 23
8 PM Wed 64 64 E 3 8 14089 12720 6020 Blue 16
9 PM Wed 62 62 E 5 10 13238 12089 5389 Blue 14
10 PM Wed 60 60 E 4 9 12370 11864 5164 Blue 12
11 PM Wed 60 60 E 5 11 12370 11864 5164 Blue 12
12 Midnight Thu 63 63 E 4 10 13660 12287 5587 Blue 15
1 AM Thu 62 62 E 4 8 13238 12089 5389 Blue 14
2 AM Thu 62 62 E 3 6 13238 12089 5389 Blue 14
3 AM Thu 61 61 E 4 9 12809 11976 5276 Blue 13
4 AM Thu 60 60 E 3 7 12370 11864 5164 Blue 12
5 AM Thu 60 60 E 2 5 12370 11864 5164 Blue 12
6 AM Thu 60 60 E 2 4 12370 11864 5164 Blue 12
7 AM Thu 59 59 ENE 2 3 12109 11751 5051 Blue 11
8 AM Thu 60 60 NNE 1 2 12370 11864 5164 Blue 12
9 AM Thu 63 63 WNW 2 2 13660 12287 5587 Blue 15
10 AM Thu 61 62 WNW 4 5 13238 12089 5389 Blue 14
11 AM Thu 61 62 WNW 5 8 13238 12089 5389 Blue 14
12 Noon Thu 63 66 WNW 5 8 15087 13563 6863 Blue 18
1 PM Thu 66 71 WNW 6 8 16337 15554 8854 Blue 22
2 PM Thu 70 75 WNW 8 9 17301 16586 9886 Blue 26
3 PM Thu 71 75 WNW 8 10 17301 16586 9886 Blue 26
4 PM Thu 69 72 NW 9 11 16713 15698 8998 Blue 23
5 PM Thu 68 70 NW 11 14 15954 15315 8615 Blue 21
6 PM Thu 67 67 NW 10 13 15410 13972 7272 Blue 19
7 PM Thu 64 64 NNW 9 14 14089 12720 6020 Blue 16
8 PM Thu 55 55 NNW 7 15 11609 9661 2961 Blue 7
9 PM Thu 54 54 N 4 9 11364 9579 2879 Blue 6
10 PM Thu 53 53 NNE 3 7 10679 9503 2803 Blue 5
11 PM Thu 52 52 ENE 2 5 9672 9426 2726 Blue 4

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]