Detailed Predictions for: Inspiration Point
Launch Altitude (f): 6700
LZ Altitude (f): 4900
Sounding

Station:

KSLC

Date/Time:

20 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sun 31 31 W 15 5171 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 31 31 W 15 5171 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 30 30 W 15 5171 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 32 32 W 15 5171 6700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 33 33 W 15 5171 6700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 33 33 W 15 5171 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 35 37 W 14 10804 8978 2278 White 3
1 PM Sun 36 38 W 14 11014 10687 3987 White 4
2 PM Sun 37 39 W 14 11225 11177 4477 White 5
3 PM Sun 36 37 NW 12 10804 8978 2278 White 3
4 PM Sun 37 38 NW 12 11014 10687 3987 White 4
5 PM Sun 35 35 NW 12 10377 6700 0 White 1
6 PM Sun 39 39 W 3 11225 11177 4477 White 5
7 PM Sun 36 36 W 3 10592 6700 0 White 2
8 PM Sun 32 32 W 3 5171 6700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 31 31 SE 7 5171 6700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 32 32 SE 7 5171 6700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 32 32 SE 7 5171 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 32 32 S 3 5171 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 33 33 S 3 5171 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 36 36 S 3 10592 6700 0 White 2
3 AM Mon 36 36 S 3 10592 6700 0 White 2
4 AM Mon 36 36 S 3 10592 6700 0 White 2
5 AM Mon 36 36 S 3 10592 6700 0 White 2
6 AM Mon 36 36 S 5 10592 6700 0 White 2
7 AM Mon 35 35 S 5 10377 6700 0 White 1
8 AM Mon 35 35 S 5 10377 6700 0 White 1
9 AM Mon 37 37 S 5 10804 8978 2278 White 3
10 AM Mon 38 38 S 5 11014 10687 3987 White 4
11 AM Mon 40 40 S 5 11435 11435 4735 White 6
12 Noon Mon 41 42 S 6 11854 11854 5154 White 7
1 PM Mon 42 43 S 6 12063 12063 5363 White 8
2 PM Mon 43 44 S 6 12272 12272 5572 White 9
3 PM Mon 43 44 S 6 12272 12272 5572 White 9
4 PM Mon 45 45 S 6 12480 12480 5780 White 10
5 PM Mon 46 46 S 6 12688 12688 5988 White 11
6 PM Mon 46 46 SW 8 12688 12688 5988 White 11
7 PM Mon 44 44 SW 8 12272 12272 5572 White 9
8 PM Mon 40 40 SW 8 11435 11435 4735 White 6
9 PM Mon 37 37 SW 8 10804 8978 2278 White 3
10 PM Mon 36 36 SW 8 10592 6700 0 White 2
11 PM Mon 36 36 SW 8 10592 6700 0 White 2
12 Midnight Tue 37 37 SE 5 10804 8978 2278 White 3
1 AM Tue 37 37 SE 5 10804 8978 2278 White 3
2 AM Tue 37 37 SE 5 10804 8978 2278 White 3
3 AM Tue 37 37 SE 5 10804 8978 2278 White 3
4 AM Tue 37 37 SE 5 10804 8978 2278 White 3
5 AM Tue 37 37 SE 5 10804 8978 2278 White 3
6 AM Tue 37 37 S 5 10804 8978 2278 White 3
7 AM Tue 38 38 S 5 11014 10687 3987 White 4
8 AM Tue 40 40 S 5 11435 11435 4735 White 6
9 AM Tue 42 42 S 5 11854 11854 5154 White 7
10 AM Tue 45 45 S 5 12480 12480 5780 White 10
11 AM Tue 47 48 S 5 13104 13104 6404 White 13
12 Noon Tue 49 51 SW 6 13724 13724 7024 White 16
1 PM Tue 50 52 SW 6 13930 13930 7230 White 17
2 PM Tue 50 52 SW 6 13930 13930 7230 White 17
3 PM Tue 51 53 SW 6 14136 14136 7436 White 18
4 PM Tue 53 54 SW 6 14339 14339 7639 White 19
5 PM Tue 54 54 SW 6 14339 14339 7639 White 19
6 PM Tue 54 54 W 3 14339 14339 7639 White 19
7 PM Tue 51 51 W 3 13724 13724 7024 White 16
8 PM Tue 48 48 W 3 13104 13104 6404 White 13
9 PM Tue 44 44 W 3 12272 12272 5572 White 9
10 PM Tue 42 42 W 3 11854 11854 5154 White 7
11 PM Tue 42 42 W 3 11854 11854 5154 White 7
12 Midnight Wed 42 42 W 5 11854 11854 5154 White 7
1 AM Wed 43 43 W 5 12063 12063 5363 White 8
2 AM Wed 43 43 W 5 12063 12063 5363 White 8
3 AM Wed 42 42 W 5 11854 11854 5154 White 7
4 AM Wed 41 41 W 5 11644 11644 4944 White 7
5 AM Wed 40 40 W 5 11435 11435 4735 White 6
6 AM Wed 39 39 NW 6 11225 11177 4477 White 5
7 AM Wed 39 39 NW 6 11225 11177 4477 White 5
8 AM Wed 40 40 NW 6 11435 11435 4735 White 6
9 AM Wed 42 42 NW 6 11854 11854 5154 White 7
10 AM Wed 46 46 NW 6 12688 12688 5988 White 11
11 AM Wed 49 50 NW 6 13518 13518 6818 White 15
12 Noon Wed 51 53 NW 8 14136 14136 7436 White 18
1 PM Wed 51 53 NW 8 14136 14136 7436 White 18
2 PM Wed 50 52 NW 8 13930 13930 7230 White 17
3 PM Wed 49 51 NW 8 13724 13724 7024 White 16
4 PM Wed 49 50 NW 8 13518 13518 6818 White 15
5 PM Wed 50 50 NW 8 13518 13518 6818 White 15
6 PM Wed 49 49 NW 10 13311 13311 6611 White 14
7 PM Wed 47 47 NW 10 12897 12897 6197 White 12
8 PM Wed 45 45 NW 10 12480 12480 5780 White 10
9 PM Wed 42 42 NW 10 11854 11854 5154 White 7
10 PM Wed 40 40 NW 10 11435 11435 4735 White 6
11 PM Wed 37 37 NW 10 10804 8978 2278 White 3
12 Midnight Thu 35 35 N 6 10377 6700 0 White 1
1 AM Thu 34 34 N 6 9350 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 32 32 N 6 5171 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 31 31 N 6 5171 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 31 31 N 6 5171 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 31 31 N 6 5171 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 32 32 NE 6 5171 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 33 33 NE 6 5171 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 34 34 NE 6 9350 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 36 36 NE 6 10592 6700 0 White 2
10 AM Thu 38 38 NE 6 11014 10687 3987 White 4
11 AM Thu 40 41 NE 6 11644 11644 4944 White 7
12 Noon Thu 42 44 NW 5 12272 12272 5572 White 9
1 PM Thu 43 46 NW 5 12688 12688 5988 White 11
2 PM Thu 45 47 NW 5 12897 12897 6197 White 12
3 PM Thu 46 48 NW 5 13104 13104 6404 White 13
4 PM Thu 47 48 NW 5 13104 13104 6404 White 13
5 PM Thu 47 47 NW 5 12897 12897 6197 White 12
6 PM Thu 47 47 NW 6 12897 12897 6197 White 12
7 PM Thu 45 45 NW 6 12480 12480 5780 White 10
8 PM Thu 44 44 NW 6 12272 12272 5572 White 9
9 PM Thu 42 42 NW 6 11854 11854 5154 White 7
10 PM Thu 39 39 NW 6 11225 11177 4477 White 5
11 PM Thu 37 37 NW 6 10804 8978 2278 White 3
12 Midnight Fri 35 35 E 5 10377 6700 0 White 1
1 AM Fri 33 33 E 5 5171 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 31 31 E 5 5171 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 30 30 E 5 5171 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 30 30 E 5 5171 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 30 30 E 5 5171 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 31 31 SE 5 5171 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 33 33 SE 5 5171 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 35 35 SE 5 10377 6700 0 White 1
9 AM Fri 38 38 SE 5 11014 10687 3987 White 4
10 AM Fri 41 42 SE 5 11854 11854 5154 White 7
11 AM Fri 44 46 SE 5 12688 12688 5988 White 11
12 Noon Fri 47 50 SW 3 13518 13518 6818 White 15
1 PM Fri 49 52 SW 3 13930 13930 7230 White 17
2 PM Fri 51 54 SW 3 14339 14339 7639 White 19
3 PM Fri 52 54 SW 3 14339 14339 7639 White 19
4 PM Fri 53 54 SW 3 14339 14339 7639 White 19
5 PM Fri 53 53 SW 3 14136 14136 7436 White 18
6 PM Fri 53 53 SW 3 14136 14136 7436 White 18
7 PM Fri 52 52 SW 3 13930 13930 7230 White 17
8 PM Fri 50 50 SW 3 13518 13518 6818 White 15
9 PM Fri 48 48 SW 3 13104 13104 6404 White 13
10 PM Fri 46 46 SW 3 12688 12688 5988 White 11
11 PM Fri 44 44 SW 3 12272 12272 5572 White 9
12 Midnight Sat 42 42 S 6 11854 11854 5154 White 7
1 AM Sat 40 40 S 6 11435 11435 4735 White 6
2 AM Sat 38 38 S 6 11014 10687 3987 White 4
3 AM Sat 37 37 S 6 10804 8978 2278 White 3
4 AM Sat 36 36 S 6 10592 6700 0 White 2
5 AM Sat 36 36 S 6 10592 6700 0 White 2

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]