Detailed Predictions for: Inspiration Point
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 40.3011, -111.626, 6700
LZ Altitude (f): 4900
Sounding

Station:

 KSLC

Date/Time:

 5 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Tue 33 33 ENE 5 8 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 33 33 ENE 5 8 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 38 38 E 5 10 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 36 36 E 5 10 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 35 35 E 5 10 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 35 35 ENE 5 10 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 32 32 ENE 5 10 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 34 34 ENE 5 10 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 35 35 NE 4 10 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 37 37 NE 4 10 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 41 42 NE 4 10 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 42 43 E 3 6 6609 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 44 45 E 3 6 7750 6700 0 Blue 1
1 PM Tue 46 47 E 3 6 8237 7035 335 Blue 3
2 PM Tue 47 48 ENE 3 6 8400 7721 1021 Blue 4
3 PM Tue 45 45 ENE 3 6 7750 6700 0 Blue 1
4 PM Tue 45 45 ENE 3 6 7750 6700 0 Blue 1
5 PM Tue 43 43 ENE 4 8 6609 6700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 39 39 ENE 4 8 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 39 39 ENE 4 8 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 40 40 ENE 4 10 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 39 39 ENE 4 10 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 39 39 ENE 4 10 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 39 39 ENE 6 11 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 38 38 ENE 6 11 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 39 39 ENE 6 11 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 39 39 NE 6 12 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 39 39 NE 6 12 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 37 37 NE 6 12 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 37 37 ENE 8 12 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 36 36 ENE 8 12 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 34 34 ENE 8 12 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 36 36 ENE 8 12 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 38 38 ENE 8 12 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 41 41 ENE 8 12 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 42 43 ENE 6 10 6609 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 45 46 ENE 6 10 8074 6700 0 Blue 2
1 PM Wed 47 48 ENE 6 10 8400 7721 1021 Blue 4
2 PM Wed 47 47 E 8 10 8237 7035 335 Blue 3
3 PM Wed 46 46 E 8 10 8074 6700 0 Blue 2
4 PM Wed 45 45 E 8 10 7750 6700 0 Blue 1
5 PM Wed 43 43 ESE 9 12 6609 6700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 42 42 ESE 9 12 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 41 41 ESE 9 12 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 40 40 SE 11 18 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 39 39 SE 11 18 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 39 39 SE 11 18 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 39 39 S 10 16 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 39 39 S 10 16 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 39 39 S 10 16 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 39 39 S 11 18 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 38 38 S 11 18 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 37 37 S 11 18 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 36 36 SSE 10 14 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 35 35 SSE 10 14 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 34 34 SSE 10 14 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 34 34 SSW 8 11 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 34 34 SSW 8 11 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 34 34 SSW 8 11 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 34 34 WSW 6 10 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 35 35 WSW 6 10 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 35 35 WSW 6 10 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 35 35 W 8 11 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 34 34 W 8 11 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 32 32 W 8 11 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 31 31 WNW 6 10 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 30 30 WNW 6 10 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 30 30 WNW 6 10 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 29 29 N 6 10 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 28 28 N 6 10 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 28 28 N 6 10 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 28 28 E 6 11 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 29 29 E 6 11 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 29 29 E 6 11 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 30 30 N 8 12 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 30 30 N 8 12 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 30 30 N 8 12 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 29 29 WNW 9 12 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 28 28 WNW 9 12 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 26 26 WNW 9 12 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 25 25 W 10 13 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 25 25 W 10 13 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 25 25 W 10 13 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 26 26 WNW 10 14 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 25 25 WNW 10 14 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 25 25 WNW 10 14 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 25 25 WNW 11 17 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 24 24 WNW 11 17 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 23 23 WNW 11 17 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 23 23 WNW 10 13 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 22 22 WNW 10 13 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 22 22 WNW 10 13 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 22 22 NW 8 12 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 22 22 NW 8 12 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 22 22 NW 8 12 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 22 22 WNW 6 11 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 23 23 WNW 6 11 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 23 23 WNW 6 11 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 23 23 W 6 10 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 23 23 W 6 10 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 23 23 W 6 10 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 22 22 SSE 8 10 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 21 21 SSE 8 10 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 21 21 SSE 8 10 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 20 20 SE 6 10 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 20 20 SE 6 10 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 21 21 SE 6 10 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 22 22 S 5 9 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 23 24 S 5 9 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 24 24 S 5 9 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 25 25 SSW 5 9 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 25 25 SSW 5 9 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 24 24 SSW 5 9 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 22 22 SSW 5 8 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 22 22 SSW 5 8 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 23 23 SSW 5 8 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 23 23 SE 6 10 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 24 24 SE 6 10 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 25 25 SE 6 10 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 25 25 SSE 6 11 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 25 25 SSE 6 11 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 25 25 SSE 6 11 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 25 25 SSE 8 11 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 25 25 SSE 8 11 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 27 27 SSE 8 11 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 28 28 S 8 11 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 28 28 S 8 11 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 28 28 S 8 11 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 28 28 S 6 11 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 28 28 S 6 11 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 28 28 S 6 11 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 28 28 SW 5 10 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 29 29 SW 5 10 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 30 30 SW 5 10 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 30 30 WSW 6 10 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 30 30 WSW 6 10 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 29 29 WSW 6 10 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 29 29 W 6 9 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 28 28 W 6 9 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 28 28 W 6 9 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 28 28 NW 6 10 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 28 28 NW 6 10 6348 6700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 28 28 NW 6 10 6348 6700 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]