Detailed Predictions for: Jupiter
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 40.606, -111.5089, 9950
LZ Altitude (f): 8200
Sounding

Station:

 KSLC

Date/Time UTC:

 250322/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Sat 27 27 SW 8 16 8815 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 27 27 SW 8 16 8815 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 27 27 SW 8 16 8815 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 27 27 W 8 16 8815 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 27 27 W 8 16 8815 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 27 27 W 8 16 8815 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 27 27 W 8 16 8815 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 27 27 W 8 16 8815 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 27 27 W 8 16 8815 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 27 27 W 9 18 8815 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 29 29 W 9 18 9548 9950 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sat 30 30 W 9 18 9785 9950 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Sat 29 29 W 11 23 9548 9950 0 Blue 2
1 PM Sat 30 31 W 11 23 10155 9950 0 White 4
2 PM Sat 30 31 W 11 23 10155 9950 0 White 4
3 PM Sat 30 31 WNW 11 23 10155 9950 0 White 4
4 PM Sat 30 31 WNW 11 23 10155 9950 0 White 4
5 PM Sat 30 30 WNW 11 23 9785 9950 0 Blue 3
6 PM Sat 30 30 WNW 10 19 9785 9950 0 Blue 3
7 PM Sat 31 31 WNW 10 19 10155 9950 0 White 4
8 PM Sat 29 29 WNW 10 19 9548 9950 0 Blue 2
9 PM Sat 27 27 NW 6 13 8815 9950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 27 27 NW 6 13 8815 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 27 27 NW 6 13 8815 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 26 26 NW 6 12 8729 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 26 26 NW 6 12 8729 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 26 26 NW 6 12 8729 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 25 25 WNW 6 11 8729 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 25 25 WNW 6 11 8729 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 25 25 WNW 6 11 8729 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 23 23 WNW 5 11 8729 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 25 25 WNW 5 11 8729 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 25 25 WNW 5 11 8729 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 26 26 W 3 8 8729 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 30 31 W 3 8 10155 9950 0 White 4
11 AM Sun 31 34 W 3 8 10832 10145 195 White 7
12 Noon Sun 33 36 WNW 5 11 11280 11044 1094 White 9
1 PM Sun 34 38 WNW 5 11 11725 11725 1775 White 11
2 PM Sun 35 39 WNW 5 11 11948 11948 1998 White 12
3 PM Sun 35 38 W 5 10 11725 11725 1775 White 11
4 PM Sun 35 37 W 5 10 11503 11413 1463 White 10
5 PM Sun 36 37 W 5 10 11503 11413 1463 White 10
6 PM Sun 36 36 WNW 5 11 11280 11044 1094 White 9
7 PM Sun 34 34 WNW 5 11 10832 10145 195 White 7
8 PM Sun 33 33 WNW 5 11 10607 9950 0 White 6
9 PM Sun 31 31 W 5 10 10155 9950 0 White 4
10 PM Sun 31 31 W 5 10 10155 9950 0 White 4
11 PM Sun 31 31 W 5 10 10155 9950 0 White 4
12 Midnight Mon 30 30 WSW 6 11 9785 9950 0 Blue 3
1 AM Mon 30 30 WSW 6 11 9785 9950 0 Blue 3
2 AM Mon 29 29 WSW 6 11 9548 9950 0 Blue 2
3 AM Mon 29 29 WSW 5 11 9548 9950 0 Blue 2
4 AM Mon 29 29 WSW 5 11 9548 9950 0 Blue 2
5 AM Mon 30 30 WSW 5 11 9785 9950 0 Blue 3
6 AM Mon 30 30 WSW 4 10 9785 9950 0 Blue 3
7 AM Mon 31 31 WSW 4 10 10155 9950 0 White 4
8 AM Mon 33 33 WSW 4 10 10607 9950 0 White 6
9 AM Mon 34 34 W 4 10 10832 10145 195 White 7
10 AM Mon 36 37 W 4 10 11503 11413 1463 White 10
11 AM Mon 39 41 W 4 10 12388 12388 2438 White 14
12 Noon Mon 41 44 W 5 13 13044 13044 3094 White 17
1 PM Mon 42 45 W 5 13 13260 13260 3310 White 18
2 PM Mon 43 46 W 5 13 13476 13476 3526 White 19
3 PM Mon 44 47 WNW 4 13 13692 13692 3742 White 20
4 PM Mon 44 46 WNW 4 13 13476 13476 3526 White 19
5 PM Mon 43 44 WNW 4 13 13044 13044 3094 White 17
6 PM Mon 43 43 WNW 5 14 12827 12827 2877 White 16
7 PM Mon 41 41 WNW 5 14 12388 12388 2438 White 14
8 PM Mon 39 39 WNW 5 14 11948 11948 1998 White 12
9 PM Mon 37 37 NW 4 11 11503 11413 1463 White 10
10 PM Mon 36 36 NW 4 11 11280 11044 1094 White 9
11 PM Mon 35 35 NW 4 11 11056 10753 803 White 8
12 Midnight Tue 35 35 NW 5 12 11056 10753 803 White 8
1 AM Tue 34 34 NW 5 12 10832 10145 195 White 7
2 AM Tue 34 34 NW 5 12 10832 10145 195 White 7
3 AM Tue 34 34 NW 5 13 10832 10145 195 White 7
4 AM Tue 34 34 NW 5 13 10832 10145 195 White 7
5 AM Tue 33 33 NW 5 13 10607 9950 0 White 6
6 AM Tue 33 33 WNW 5 13 10607 9950 0 White 6
7 AM Tue 34 34 WNW 5 13 10832 10145 195 White 7
8 AM Tue 35 35 WNW 5 13 11056 10753 803 White 8
9 AM Tue 37 37 W 5 12 11503 11413 1463 White 10
10 AM Tue 40 41 W 5 12 12388 12388 2438 White 14
11 AM Tue 43 46 W 5 12 13476 13476 3526 White 19
12 Noon Tue 46 50 W 3 10 14332 14332 4382 White 23
1 PM Tue 48 53 W 3 10 14964 14964 5014 White 26
2 PM Tue 48 53 W 3 10 14964 14964 5014 White 26
3 PM Tue 49 53 W 3 11 14964 14964 5014 White 26
4 PM Tue 49 52 W 3 11 14754 14754 4804 White 25
5 PM Tue 48 49 W 3 11 14122 14122 4172 White 22
6 PM Tue 47 47 WNW 4 12 13692 13692 3742 White 20
7 PM Tue 45 45 WNW 4 12 13260 13260 3310 White 18
8 PM Tue 43 43 WNW 4 12 12827 12827 2877 White 16
9 PM Tue 41 41 NW 5 12 12388 12388 2438 White 14
10 PM Tue 40 40 NW 5 12 12168 12168 2218 White 13
11 PM Tue 39 39 NW 5 12 11948 11948 1998 White 12
12 Midnight Wed 38 38 NE 6 14 11725 11725 1775 White 11
1 AM Wed 37 37 NE 6 14 11503 11413 1463 White 10
2 AM Wed 37 37 NE 6 14 11503 11413 1463 White 10
3 AM Wed 36 36 E 8 16 11280 11044 1094 White 9
4 AM Wed 35 35 E 8 16 11056 10753 803 White 8
5 AM Wed 35 35 E 8 16 11056 10753 803 White 8
6 AM Wed 35 35 E 8 17 11056 10753 803 White 8
7 AM Wed 35 35 E 8 17 11056 10753 803 White 8
8 AM Wed 36 36 E 8 17 11280 11044 1094 White 9
9 AM Wed 38 38 SE 6 16 11725 11725 1775 White 11
10 AM Wed 42 43 SE 6 16 12827 12827 2877 White 16
11 AM Wed 47 50 SE 6 16 14332 14332 4382 White 23
12 Noon Wed 50 54 SSW 6 14 15172 15172 5222 White 26
1 PM Wed 52 56 SSW 6 14 15590 15590 5640 White 28
2 PM Wed 53 57 SSW 6 14 15799 15799 5849 White 29
3 PM Wed 54 57 WSW 6 19 15799 15799 5849 White 29
4 PM Wed 54 56 WSW 6 19 15590 15590 5640 White 28
5 PM Wed 53 54 WSW 6 19 15172 15172 5222 White 26
6 PM Wed 52 52 W 9 21 14754 14754 4804 White 25
7 PM Wed 50 50 W 9 21 14332 14332 4382 White 23
8 PM Wed 48 48 W 9 21 13907 13907 3957 White 21
9 PM Wed 46 46 W 9 18 13476 13476 3526 White 19
10 PM Wed 45 45 W 9 18 13260 13260 3310 White 18
11 PM Wed 44 44 W 9 18 13044 13044 3094 White 17
12 Midnight Thu 44 44 S 10 21 13044 13044 3094 White 17
1 AM Thu 43 43 S 10 21 12827 12827 2877 White 16
2 AM Thu 43 43 S 10 21 12827 12827 2877 White 16
3 AM Thu 42 42 SSW 10 21 12608 12608 2658 White 15
4 AM Thu 41 41 SSW 10 21 12388 12388 2438 White 14
5 AM Thu 40 40 SSW 10 21 12168 12168 2218 White 13
6 AM Thu 40 40 SSW 10 21 12168 12168 2218 White 13
7 AM Thu 40 40 SSW 10 21 12168 12168 2218 White 13
8 AM Thu 41 41 SSW 10 21 12388 12388 2438 White 14
9 AM Thu 42 42 SSW 11 25 12608 12608 2658 White 15
10 AM Thu 45 46 SSW 11 25 13476 13476 3526 White 19
11 AM Thu 47 49 SSW 11 25 14122 14122 4172 White 22
12 Noon Thu 50 52 SW 13 29 14754 14754 4804 White 25
1 PM Thu 51 53 SW 13 29 14964 14964 5014 White 26
2 PM Thu 51 53 SW 13 29 14964 14964 5014 White 26
3 PM Thu 50 52 WSW 16 32 14754 14754 4804 White 25
4 PM Thu 49 50 WSW 16 32 14332 14332 4382 White 23
5 PM Thu 48 48 WSW 16 32 13907 13907 3957 White 21
6 PM Thu 46 46 W 16 32 13476 13476 3526 White 19
7 PM Thu 44 44 W 16 32 13044 13044 3094 White 17
8 PM Thu 43 43 W 16 32 12827 12827 2877 White 16
9 PM Thu 41 41 W 12 27 12388 12388 2438 White 14
10 PM Thu 40 40 W 12 27 12168 12168 2218 White 13

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]