Detailed Predictions for: Jupiter
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 40.606, -111.5089, 9950
LZ Altitude (f): 8200
Sounding

Station:

 KSLC

Date/Time:

 21 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
1 AM Tue 32 32 NNW 11 16 5194 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 31 31 NNW 11 16 5194 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 31 31 NNW 9 13 5194 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 31 31 NNW 9 13 5194 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 31 31 NNW 9 13 5194 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 31 31 WSW 5 10 5194 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 32 32 WSW 5 10 5194 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 32 32 WSW 5 10 5194 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 36 36 S 6 10 7797 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 40 42 S 6 10 11307 9950 0 Blue 6
11 AM Tue 44 47 S 6 10 12098 11739 1789 Blue 11
12 Noon Tue 46 50 SSE 5 8 13242 12086 2136 Blue 14
1 PM Tue 50 55 SSE 5 8 15472 14037 4087 Blue 19
2 PM Tue 51 56 SSE 5 8 15630 14566 4616 Blue 20
3 PM Tue 55 59 ENE 4 9 16458 15596 5646 Blue 23
4 PM Tue 56 59 ENE 4 9 16458 15596 5646 Blue 23
5 PM Tue 56 57 ENE 4 9 15778 15069 5119 Blue 21
6 PM Tue 55 55 WSW 4 8 15472 14037 4087 Blue 19
7 PM Tue 46 46 WSW 4 8 11982 11536 1586 Blue 10
8 PM Tue 42 42 WSW 4 8 11307 9950 0 Blue 6
9 PM Tue 42 42 SSW 6 10 11307 9950 0 Blue 6
10 PM Tue 42 42 SSW 6 10 11307 9950 0 Blue 6
11 PM Tue 42 42 SSW 6 10 11307 9950 0 Blue 6
12 Midnight Wed 42 42 SSW 8 11 11307 9950 0 Blue 6
1 AM Wed 43 43 SSW 8 11 11559 9950 0 Blue 7
2 AM Wed 42 42 SSW 8 11 11307 9950 0 Blue 6
3 AM Wed 42 42 SSW 11 14 11307 9950 0 Blue 6
4 AM Wed 42 42 SSW 11 14 11307 9950 0 Blue 6
5 AM Wed 42 42 SSW 11 14 11307 9950 0 Blue 6
6 AM Wed 42 42 SSW 9 13 11307 9950 0 Blue 6
7 AM Wed 42 42 SSW 9 13 11307 9950 0 Blue 6
8 AM Wed 42 42 SSW 9 13 11307 9950 0 Blue 6
9 AM Wed 46 46 S 8 13 11982 11536 1586 Blue 10
10 AM Wed 49 50 S 8 13 13242 12086 2136 Blue 14
11 AM Wed 54 57 S 8 13 15778 15069 5119 Blue 21
12 Noon Wed 55 59 S 6 10 16458 15596 5646 Blue 23
1 PM Wed 58 63 S 6 10 17387 16728 6778 Blue 27
2 PM Wed 60 64 S 6 10 17588 16929 6979 Blue 28
3 PM Wed 61 64 SW 10 14 17588 16929 6979 Blue 28
4 PM Wed 62 64 SW 10 14 17588 16929 6979 Blue 28
5 PM Wed 61 62 SW 10 14 17186 16357 6407 Blue 26
6 PM Wed 59 59 WNW 6 10 16458 15596 5646 Blue 23
7 PM Wed 55 55 WNW 6 10 15472 14037 4087 Blue 19
8 PM Wed 50 50 WNW 6 10 13242 12086 2136 Blue 14
9 PM Wed 47 47 WSW 8 11 12098 11739 1789 Blue 11
10 PM Wed 46 46 WSW 8 11 11982 11536 1586 Blue 10
11 PM Wed 46 46 WSW 8 11 11982 11536 1586 Blue 10
12 Midnight Thu 47 47 SE 8 11 12098 11739 1789 Blue 11
1 AM Thu 47 47 SE 8 11 12098 11739 1789 Blue 11
2 AM Thu 47 47 SE 8 11 12098 11739 1789 Blue 11
3 AM Thu 47 47 SSE 8 11 12098 11739 1789 Blue 11
4 AM Thu 47 47 SSE 8 11 12098 11739 1789 Blue 11
5 AM Thu 46 46 SSE 8 11 11982 11536 1586 Blue 10
6 AM Thu 46 46 SE 10 13 11982 11536 1586 Blue 10
7 AM Thu 45 45 SE 10 13 11866 11286 1336 Blue 9
8 AM Thu 45 45 SE 10 13 11866 11286 1336 Blue 9
9 AM Thu 46 46 NW 8 11 11982 11536 1586 Blue 10
10 AM Thu 49 50 NW 8 11 13242 12086 2136 Blue 14
11 AM Thu 52 54 NW 8 11 15139 13610 3660 Blue 18
12 Noon Thu 56 60 NW 8 11 16782 15744 5794 Blue 24
1 PM Thu 58 62 NW 8 11 17186 16357 6407 Blue 26
2 PM Thu 60 64 NW 8 11 17588 16929 6979 Blue 28
3 PM Thu 60 63 NW 9 14 17387 16728 6778 Blue 27
4 PM Thu 60 62 NW 9 14 17186 16357 6407 Blue 26
5 PM Thu 59 60 NW 9 14 16782 15744 5794 Blue 24
6 PM Thu 56 56 NW 10 14 15630 14566 4616 Blue 20
7 PM Thu 52 52 NW 10 14 14132 12738 2788 Blue 16
8 PM Thu 48 48 NW 10 14 12341 11855 1905 Blue 12
9 PM Thu 45 45 NNW 9 13 11866 11286 1336 Blue 9
10 PM Thu 44 44 NNW 9 13 11750 9950 0 Blue 8
11 PM Thu 44 44 NNW 9 13 11750 9950 0 Blue 8
12 Midnight Fri 45 45 NNE 6 11 11866 11286 1336 Blue 9
1 AM Fri 45 45 NNE 6 11 11866 11286 1336 Blue 9
2 AM Fri 44 44 NNE 6 11 11750 9950 0 Blue 8
3 AM Fri 43 43 NE 8 11 11559 9950 0 Blue 7
4 AM Fri 43 43 NE 8 11 11559 9950 0 Blue 7
5 AM Fri 42 42 NE 8 11 11307 9950 0 Blue 6
6 AM Fri 42 42 E 8 11 11307 9950 0 Blue 6
7 AM Fri 42 42 E 8 11 11307 9950 0 Blue 6
8 AM Fri 43 43 E 8 11 11559 9950 0 Blue 7
9 AM Fri 45 45 N 5 10 11866 11286 1336 Blue 9
10 AM Fri 47 48 N 5 10 12341 11855 1905 Blue 12
11 AM Fri 51 54 N 5 10 15139 13610 3660 Blue 18
12 Noon Fri 54 58 NW 5 9 16063 15398 5448 Blue 22
1 PM Fri 57 62 NW 5 9 17186 16357 6407 Blue 26
2 PM Fri 59 64 NW 5 9 17588 16929 6979 Blue 28
3 PM Fri 60 64 WNW 6 11 17588 16929 6979 Blue 28
4 PM Fri 61 64 WNW 6 11 17588 16929 6979 Blue 28
5 PM Fri 60 61 WNW 6 11 16985 15967 6017 Blue 25
6 PM Fri 58 58 WNW 9 13 16063 15398 5448 Blue 22
7 PM Fri 53 53 WNW 9 13 14668 13178 3228 Blue 17
8 PM Fri 48 48 WNW 9 13 12341 11855 1905 Blue 12
9 PM Fri 45 45 NW 8 11 11866 11286 1336 Blue 9
10 PM Fri 44 44 NW 8 11 11750 9950 0 Blue 8
11 PM Fri 45 45 NW 8 11 11866 11286 1336 Blue 9
12 Midnight Sat 46 46 WSW 5 9 11982 11536 1586 Blue 10
1 AM Sat 46 46 WSW 5 9 11982 11536 1586 Blue 10
2 AM Sat 45 45 WSW 5 9 11866 11286 1336 Blue 9
3 AM Sat 45 45 WSW 6 11 11866 11286 1336 Blue 9
4 AM Sat 44 44 WSW 6 11 11750 9950 0 Blue 8
5 AM Sat 45 45 WSW 6 11 11866 11286 1336 Blue 9
6 AM Sat 45 45 SW 8 11 11866 11286 1336 Blue 9
7 AM Sat 45 45 SW 8 11 11866 11286 1336 Blue 9
8 AM Sat 46 46 SW 8 11 11982 11536 1586 Blue 10
9 AM Sat 47 47 SW 6 10 12098 11739 1789 Blue 11
10 AM Sat 50 52 SW 6 10 14132 12738 2788 Blue 16
11 AM Sat 54 57 SW 6 10 15778 15069 5119 Blue 21
12 Noon Sat 57 61 WSW 9 13 16985 15967 6017 Blue 25
1 PM Sat 60 65 WSW 9 13 17773 17129 7179 Blue 28
2 PM Sat 61 66 WSW 9 13 17888 17329 7379 Blue 29
3 PM Sat 62 66 W 10 16 17888 17329 7379 Blue 29
4 PM Sat 63 66 W 10 16 17888 17329 7379 Blue 29
5 PM Sat 63 64 W 10 16 17588 16929 6979 Blue 28
6 PM Sat 61 61 W 9 14 16985 15967 6017 Blue 25
7 PM Sat 57 57 W 9 14 15778 15069 5119 Blue 21
8 PM Sat 51 51 W 9 14 13679 12288 2338 Blue 15
9 PM Sat 48 48 WNW 6 10 12341 11855 1905 Blue 12
10 PM Sat 46 46 WNW 6 10 11982 11536 1586 Blue 10
11 PM Sat 47 47 WNW 6 10 12098 11739 1789 Blue 11
12 Midnight Sun 48 48 WNW 6 10 12341 11855 1905 Blue 12
1 AM Sun 48 48 WNW 6 10 12341 11855 1905 Blue 12
2 AM Sun 47 47 WNW 6 10 12098 11739 1789 Blue 11
3 AM Sun 46 46 WNW 8 11 11982 11536 1586 Blue 10
4 AM Sun 46 46 WNW 8 11 11982 11536 1586 Blue 10
5 AM Sun 46 46 WNW 8 11 11982 11536 1586 Blue 10
6 AM Sun 46 46 W 9 13 11982 11536 1586 Blue 10
7 AM Sun 47 47 W 9 13 12098 11739 1789 Blue 11
8 AM Sun 47 47 W 9 13 12098 11739 1789 Blue 11
9 AM Sun 49 49 W 6 11 12797 11970 2020 Blue 13
10 AM Sun 51 53 W 6 11 14668 13178 3228 Blue 17
11 AM Sun 54 57 W 6 11 15778 15069 5119 Blue 21
12 Noon Sun 57 61 W 8 13 16985 15967 6017 Blue 25
1 PM Sun 59 64 W 8 13 17588 16929 6979 Blue 28
2 PM Sun 61 66 W 8 13 17888 17329 7379 Blue 29
3 PM Sun 62 66 WNW 10 17 17888 17329 7379 Blue 29
4 PM Sun 63 66 WNW 10 17 17888 17329 7379 Blue 29
5 PM Sun 63 64 WNW 10 17 17588 16929 6979 Blue 28
6 PM Sun 61 61 WNW 10 17 16985 15967 6017 Blue 25
7 PM Sun 57 57 WNW 10 17 15778 15069 5119 Blue 21
8 PM Sun 52 52 WNW 10 17 14132 12738 2788 Blue 16
9 PM Sun 49 49 WNW 6 10 12797 11970 2020 Blue 13
10 PM Sun 47 47 WNW 6 10 12098 11739 1789 Blue 11
11 PM Sun 48 48 WNW 6 10 12341 11855 1905 Blue 12

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]