Detailed Predictions for: Jupiter
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 40.606, -111.5089, 9950
LZ Altitude (f): 8200
Sounding

Station:

 KSLC

Date/Time:

 23 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
1 AM Wed 62 62 SW 16 23 8235 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 61 61 SW 16 23 6449 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 60 60 SSW 13 20 5955 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 60 60 SSW 13 20 5955 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 59 59 SSW 13 20 5955 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 58 58 SW 12 18 5955 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 59 59 SW 12 18 5955 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 61 61 SW 12 18 6449 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 64 65 SW 10 16 13098 9950 0 Blue 1
10 AM Wed 65 67 SW 10 16 14321 10607 657 Blue 3
11 AM Wed 66 69 SW 10 16 18830 13628 3678 Blue 5
12 Noon Wed 69 72 WSW 10 18 20152 18712 8762 Blue 8
1 PM Wed 69 73 WSW 10 18 20766 19063 9113 Blue 9
2 PM Wed 70 74 WSW 10 18 21378 19520 9570 Blue 10
3 PM Wed 70 73 WSW 11 18 20766 19063 9113 Blue 9
4 PM Wed 71 73 WSW 11 18 20766 19063 9113 Blue 9
5 PM Wed 70 71 WSW 11 18 19640 16513 6563 Blue 7
6 PM Wed 69 69 SW 10 16 18830 13628 3678 Blue 5
7 PM Wed 68 68 SW 10 16 17314 12970 3020 Blue 4
8 PM Wed 65 65 SW 10 16 13098 9950 0 Blue 1
9 PM Wed 63 63 SW 11 17 9589 9950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 62 62 SW 11 17 8235 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 62 62 SW 11 17 8235 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 60 60 SW 12 17 5955 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 60 60 SW 12 17 5955 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 59 59 SW 12 17 5955 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 58 58 SSW 11 17 5955 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 56 56 SSW 11 17 5955 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 56 56 SSW 11 17 5955 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 54 54 SSW 6 11 5955 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 54 54 SSW 6 11 5955 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 53 53 SSW 6 11 5955 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 55 55 SSW 6 11 5955 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 53 54 SSW 6 11 5955 9950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 55 56 SSW 6 11 5955 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 55 56 SW 8 13 5955 9950 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 56 57 SW 8 13 5955 9950 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 59 60 SW 8 13 5955 9950 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 60 62 W 10 17 8235 9950 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 60 61 W 10 17 6449 9950 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 59 60 W 10 17 5955 9950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 58 59 NW 10 14 5955 9950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 57 57 NW 10 14 5955 9950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 55 55 NW 10 14 5955 9950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 54 54 W 9 13 5955 9950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 53 53 W 9 13 5955 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 53 53 W 9 13 5955 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 52 52 SE 6 10 5955 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 52 52 SE 6 10 5955 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 52 52 SE 6 10 5955 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 52 52 SE 6 9 5955 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 52 52 SE 6 9 5955 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 52 52 SE 6 9 5955 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 52 52 SE 6 10 5955 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 53 53 SE 6 10 5955 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 54 54 SE 6 10 5955 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 56 57 SW 6 10 5955 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 57 59 SW 6 10 5955 9950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 59 61 SW 6 10 6449 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 60 62 W 9 14 8235 9950 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 60 63 W 9 14 9589 9950 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 61 64 W 9 14 10657 9950 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 61 63 WNW 11 18 9589 9950 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 62 64 WNW 11 18 10657 9950 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 62 63 WNW 11 18 9589 9950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 61 62 N 11 18 8235 9950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 60 60 N 11 18 5955 9950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 58 58 N 11 18 5955 9950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 56 56 NNE 11 17 5955 9950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 55 55 NNE 11 17 5955 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 53 53 NNE 11 17 5955 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 53 53 E 9 13 5955 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 52 52 E 9 13 5955 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 51 51 E 9 13 5955 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 51 51 ESE 10 13 5955 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 50 50 ESE 10 13 5955 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 50 50 ESE 10 13 5955 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 52 52 ESE 10 13 5955 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 53 53 ESE 10 13 5955 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 55 55 ESE 10 13 5955 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 56 57 NE 9 14 5955 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 58 61 NE 9 14 6449 9950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 59 63 NE 9 14 9589 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 61 65 N 10 18 13098 9950 0 Blue 1
1 PM Sat 63 67 N 10 18 14321 10607 657 Blue 3
2 PM Sat 64 68 N 10 18 17314 12970 3020 Blue 4
3 PM Sat 65 69 N 12 20 18830 13628 3678 Blue 5
4 PM Sat 65 68 N 12 20 17314 12970 3020 Blue 4
5 PM Sat 65 67 N 12 20 14321 10607 657 Blue 3
6 PM Sat 64 65 N 11 18 13098 9950 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sat 63 63 N 11 18 9589 9950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 61 61 N 11 18 6449 9950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 60 60 NE 11 17 5955 9950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 59 59 NE 11 17 5955 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 57 57 NE 11 17 5955 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 56 56 ESE 10 16 5955 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 55 55 ESE 10 16 5955 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 54 54 ESE 10 16 5955 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 54 54 ESE 10 16 5955 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 53 53 ESE 10 16 5955 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 53 53 ESE 10 16 5955 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 53 53 E 10 16 5955 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 54 54 E 10 16 5955 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 56 57 E 10 16 5955 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 58 60 E 9 16 5955 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 60 64 E 9 16 10657 9950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 62 68 E 9 16 17314 12970 3020 Blue 4
12 Noon Sun 64 71 NE 8 16 19640 16513 6563 Blue 7
1 PM Sun 66 74 NE 8 16 21378 19520 9570 Blue 10
2 PM Sun 68 75 NE 8 16 21961 19928 9978 Blue 11
3 PM Sun 69 75 N 10 18 21961 19928 9978 Blue 11
4 PM Sun 70 75 N 10 18 21961 19928 9978 Blue 11
5 PM Sun 70 73 N 10 18 20766 19063 9113 Blue 9
6 PM Sun 69 71 N 11 20 19640 16513 6563 Blue 7
7 PM Sun 67 67 N 11 20 14321 10607 657 Blue 3
8 PM Sun 65 65 N 11 20 13098 9950 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sun 63 63 NE 11 18 9589 9950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 61 61 NE 11 18 6449 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 60 60 NE 11 18 5955 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 59 59 SE 11 17 5955 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 58 58 SE 11 17 5955 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 57 57 SE 11 17 5955 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 56 56 ESE 11 18 5955 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 55 55 ESE 11 18 5955 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 54 54 ESE 11 18 5955 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 54 54 ESE 10 17 5955 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 55 55 ESE 10 17 5955 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 57 58 ESE 10 17 5955 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 60 62 SE 10 16 8235 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 62 66 SE 10 16 13722 9950 0 Blue 2
11 AM Mon 65 71 SE 10 16 19640 16513 6563 Blue 7
12 Noon Mon 67 74 SSE 9 16 21378 19520 9570 Blue 10
1 PM Mon 69 77 SSE 9 16 22786 21125 11175 Blue 13
2 PM Mon 71 79 SSE 9 16 23713 22215 12265 White 15
3 PM Mon 72 79 WNW 10 18 23713 22215 12265 White 15
4 PM Mon 73 79 WNW 10 18 23713 22215 12265 White 15
5 PM Mon 73 77 WNW 10 18 22786 21125 11175 Blue 13
6 PM Mon 72 74 NNW 12 19 21378 19520 9570 Blue 10
7 PM Mon 70 71 NNW 12 19 19640 16513 6563 Blue 7
8 PM Mon 67 67 NNW 12 19 14321 10607 657 Blue 3
9 PM Mon 65 65 NE 10 16 13098 9950 0 Blue 1
10 PM Mon 63 63 NE 10 16 9589 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 62 62 NE 10 16 8235 9950 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]