Detailed Predictions for: Jupiter
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 40.606, -111.5089, 9950
LZ Altitude (f): 8200
Sounding

Station:

 KSLC

Date/Time UTC:

 250620/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Fri 66 66 SSW 14 28 19792 9950 0 Blue 2
1 AM Fri 65 65 SSW 14 28 19255 9950 0 Blue 1
2 AM Fri 63 63 SSW 14 28 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 61 61 SSW 14 28 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 60 60 SSW 14 28 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 60 60 SSW 14 28 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 56 56 SSW 14 26 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 58 58 SSW 14 26 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 59 60 SSW 14 26 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 62 64 SSW 17 29 9595 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 64 68 SSW 17 29 20253 13316 3366 Blue 4
11 AM Fri 66 72 SSW 17 29 21440 20431 10481 Blue 8
12 Noon Fri 67 75 SSW 20 32 22315 21313 11363 Blue 11
1 PM Fri 68 76 SSW 20 32 22602 21605 11655 Blue 12
2 PM Fri 69 77 SSW 20 32 22886 21895 11945 Blue 13
3 PM Fri 70 77 SSW 23 35 22886 21895 11945 Blue 13
4 PM Fri 70 76 SSW 23 35 22602 21605 11655 Blue 12
5 PM Fri 71 75 SSW 23 35 22315 21313 11363 Blue 11
6 PM Fri 70 72 SSW 23 36 21440 20431 10481 Blue 8
7 PM Fri 70 71 SSW 23 36 21143 20140 10190 Blue 7
8 PM Fri 67 67 SSW 23 36 19999 9950 0 Blue 3
9 PM Fri 64 64 SSW 19 37 9595 9950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 63 63 SSW 19 37 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 62 62 SSW 19 37 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 60 60 WSW 17 33 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 57 57 WSW 17 33 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 56 56 WSW 17 33 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 54 54 SSW 12 23 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 53 53 SSW 12 23 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 52 52 SSW 12 23 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 47 47 SW 9 17 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 49 49 SW 9 17 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 50 51 SW 9 17 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 53 55 SSW 10 20 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 56 60 SSW 10 20 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 58 64 SSW 10 20 9595 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 59 67 SSW 13 26 19999 9950 0 Blue 3
1 PM Sat 61 69 SSW 13 26 20547 19716 9766 Blue 5
2 PM Sat 62 70 SSW 13 26 20843 19921 9971 Blue 6
3 PM Sat 63 70 SW 16 29 20843 19921 9971 Blue 6
4 PM Sat 63 69 SW 16 29 20547 19716 9766 Blue 5
5 PM Sat 63 67 SW 16 29 19999 9950 0 Blue 3
6 PM Sat 61 63 W 13 28 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 57 58 W 13 28 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 52 52 W 13 28 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 47 47 NW 14 28 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 44 44 NW 14 28 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 43 43 NW 14 28 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 42 42 NW 11 21 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 41 41 NW 11 21 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 41 41 NW 11 21 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 40 40 NNW 8 14 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 38 38 NNW 8 14 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 37 37 NNW 8 14 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 36 36 E 5 11 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 37 37 E 5 11 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 40 40 E 5 11 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 42 44 WNW 5 13 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 44 47 WNW 5 13 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 45 50 WNW 5 13 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 47 53 W 9 18 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 49 56 W 9 18 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 51 58 W 9 18 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 52 58 W 10 20 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 53 58 W 10 20 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 53 56 W 10 20 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 52 54 WNW 9 18 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 49 50 WNW 9 18 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 46 46 WNW 9 18 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 43 43 NNW 8 16 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 42 42 NNW 8 16 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 42 42 NNW 8 16 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 42 42 ENE 6 13 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 41 41 ENE 6 13 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 41 41 ENE 6 13 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 40 40 E 6 11 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 39 39 E 6 11 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 38 38 E 6 11 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 38 38 E 5 11 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 41 41 E 5 11 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 45 46 E 5 11 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 49 51 ESE 4 10 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 52 56 ESE 4 10 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 55 61 ESE 4 10 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 57 65 SSW 5 13 19255 9950 0 Blue 1
1 PM Mon 59 67 SSW 5 13 19999 9950 0 Blue 3
2 PM Mon 61 69 SSW 5 13 20547 19716 9766 Blue 5
3 PM Mon 62 68 WSW 8 17 20253 13316 3366 Blue 4
4 PM Mon 63 68 WSW 8 17 20253 13316 3366 Blue 4
5 PM Mon 64 67 WSW 8 17 19999 9950 0 Blue 3
6 PM Mon 63 65 W 8 17 19255 9950 0 Blue 1
7 PM Mon 60 60 W 8 17 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 56 56 W 8 17 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 53 53 NNW 6 13 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 52 52 NNW 6 13 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 51 51 NNW 6 13 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 51 51 NE 5 11 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 50 50 NE 5 11 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 50 50 NE 5 11 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 49 49 ESE 5 11 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 48 48 ESE 5 11 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 47 47 ESE 5 11 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 48 48 SE 5 9 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 50 50 SE 5 9 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 54 54 SE 5 9 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 57 59 S 5 11 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 59 63 S 5 11 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 61 66 S 5 11 19792 9950 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Tue 63 69 SW 8 17 20547 19716 9766 Blue 5
1 PM Tue 65 72 SW 8 17 21440 20431 10481 Blue 8
2 PM Tue 66 73 SW 8 17 21734 20721 10771 Blue 9
3 PM Tue 67 73 WSW 10 19 21734 20721 10771 Blue 9
4 PM Tue 68 72 WSW 10 19 21440 20431 10481 Blue 8
5 PM Tue 68 71 WSW 10 19 21143 20140 10190 Blue 7
6 PM Tue 67 68 W 10 19 20253 13316 3366 Blue 4
7 PM Tue 64 64 W 10 19 9595 9950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 61 61 W 10 19 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 58 58 NW 6 14 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 56 56 NW 6 14 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 56 56 NW 6 14 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 55 55 ENE 6 11 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 55 55 ENE 6 11 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 54 54 ENE 6 11 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 54 54 E 5 11 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 53 53 E 5 11 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 51 51 E 5 11 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 51 51 ESE 5 10 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 53 53 ESE 5 10 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 56 56 ESE 5 10 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 59 61 S 5 11 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 61 64 S 5 11 9595 9950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 63 67 S 5 11 19999 9950 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Wed 64 70 SW 6 14 20843 19921 9971 Blue 6
1 PM Wed 66 73 SW 6 14 21734 20721 10771 Blue 9
2 PM Wed 67 73 SW 6 14 21734 20721 10771 Blue 9
3 PM Wed 68 74 WSW 8 17 22026 21018 11068 Blue 10
4 PM Wed 68 73 WSW 8 17 21734 20721 10771 Blue 9
5 PM Wed 68 71 WSW 8 17 21143 20140 10190 Blue 7
6 PM Wed 67 69 WNW 8 17 20547 19716 9766 Blue 5
7 PM Wed 64 64 WNW 8 17 9595 9950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 61 61 WNW 8 17 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 58 58 NNW 5 12 8795 9950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 56 56 NNW 5 12 8795 9950 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]