Detailed Predictions for: Jupiter
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 40.606, -111.5089, 9950
LZ Altitude (f): 8200
Sounding

Station:

 KSLC

Date/Time UTC:

 260911/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Fri 58 58 W 8 16 7999 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 58 58 W 8 16 7999 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 59 59 W 8 16 7999 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 59 59 W 6 13 7999 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 60 60 W 6 13 8382 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 59 59 W 6 13 7999 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 59 59 SW 8 16 7999 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 57 57 SW 8 16 7999 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 57 57 SW 8 16 7999 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 59 59 WSW 8 17 7999 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 61 63 WSW 8 17 13484 9950 0 Blue 3
11 AM Fri 63 66 WSW 8 17 15482 13301 3351 White 6
12 Noon Fri 64 68 WSW 8 20 15924 15924 5974 White 8
1 PM Fri 65 69 WSW 8 20 16144 16144 6194 White 9
2 PM Fri 66 70 WSW 8 20 16358 16358 6408 White 10
3 PM Fri 67 71 WSW 8 21 16570 16570 6620 White 11
4 PM Fri 67 70 WSW 8 21 16358 16358 6408 White 10
5 PM Fri 67 68 WSW 8 21 15924 15924 5974 White 8
6 PM Fri 68 68 W 5 19 15924 15924 5974 White 8
7 PM Fri 65 65 W 5 19 15260 11950 2000 White 5
8 PM Fri 61 61 W 5 19 10906 9950 0 Blue 1
9 PM Fri 60 60 SW 5 12 8382 9950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 59 59 SW 5 12 7999 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 58 58 SW 5 12 7999 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 58 58 SW 6 13 7999 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 57 57 SW 6 13 7999 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 58 58 SW 6 13 7999 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 58 58 SW 6 12 7999 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 56 56 SW 6 12 7999 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 56 56 SW 6 12 7999 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 56 56 SSW 6 13 7999 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 54 54 SSW 6 13 7999 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 56 56 SSW 6 13 7999 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 59 59 SSW 10 23 7999 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 63 65 SSW 10 23 15260 11950 2000 White 5
11 AM Sat 65 68 SSW 10 23 15924 15924 5974 White 8
12 Noon Sat 66 70 SSW 13 28 16358 16358 6408 White 10
1 PM Sat 68 73 SSW 13 28 16994 16994 7044 White 13
2 PM Sat 69 74 SSW 13 28 17206 17206 7256 White 14
3 PM Sat 70 74 SSW 14 32 17206 17206 7256 White 14
4 PM Sat 70 73 SSW 14 32 16994 16994 7044 White 13
5 PM Sat 71 72 SSW 14 32 16783 16783 6833 White 12
6 PM Sat 70 70 SSW 12 32 16358 16358 6408 White 10
7 PM Sat 69 69 SSW 12 32 16144 16144 6194 White 9
8 PM Sat 67 67 SSW 12 32 15703 14598 4648 White 7
9 PM Sat 66 66 S 17 37 15482 13301 3351 White 6
10 PM Sat 65 65 S 17 37 15260 11950 2000 White 5
11 PM Sat 65 65 S 17 37 15260 11950 2000 White 5
12 Midnight Sun 65 65 S 18 41 15260 11950 2000 White 5
1 AM Sun 64 64 S 18 41 14869 10825 875 Blue 4
2 AM Sun 63 63 S 18 41 13484 9950 0 Blue 3
3 AM Sun 62 62 S 19 37 12086 9950 0 Blue 2
4 AM Sun 61 61 S 19 37 10906 9950 0 Blue 1
5 AM Sun 60 60 S 19 37 8382 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 59 59 S 17 33 7999 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 58 58 S 17 33 7999 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 57 57 S 17 33 7999 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 57 57 SSW 17 32 7999 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 57 59 SSW 17 32 7999 9950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 57 60 SSW 17 32 8382 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 58 62 SW 16 29 12086 9950 0 Blue 2
1 PM Sun 59 63 SW 16 29 13484 9950 0 Blue 3
2 PM Sun 61 65 SW 16 29 15260 11950 2000 White 5
3 PM Sun 62 65 WSW 11 27 15260 11950 2000 White 5
4 PM Sun 62 64 WSW 11 27 14869 10825 875 Blue 4
5 PM Sun 61 62 WSW 11 27 12086 9950 0 Blue 2
6 PM Sun 60 60 W 9 23 8382 9950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 58 58 W 9 23 7999 9950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 55 55 W 9 23 7999 9950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 52 52 W 9 23 7999 9950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 51 51 W 9 23 7999 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 50 50 W 9 23 7999 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 49 49 WNW 5 14 7999 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 48 48 WNW 5 14 7999 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 48 48 WNW 5 14 7999 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 47 47 WNW 4 10 7999 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 46 46 WNW 4 10 7999 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 45 45 WNW 4 10 7999 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 45 45 WNW 3 9 7999 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 46 46 WNW 3 9 7999 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 46 46 WNW 3 9 7999 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 47 48 W 2 6 7999 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 50 52 W 2 6 7999 9950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 52 55 W 2 6 7999 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 55 60 WSW 2 10 8382 9950 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 57 62 WSW 2 10 12086 9950 0 Blue 2
2 PM Mon 59 64 WSW 2 10 14869 10825 875 Blue 4
3 PM Mon 60 64 WSW 4 16 14869 10825 875 Blue 4
4 PM Mon 60 63 WSW 4 16 13484 9950 0 Blue 3
5 PM Mon 60 62 WSW 4 16 12086 9950 0 Blue 2
6 PM Mon 60 60 W 4 12 8382 9950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 56 56 W 4 12 7999 9950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 53 53 W 4 12 7999 9950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 51 51 NNW 4 11 7999 9950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 50 50 NNW 4 11 7999 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 50 50 NNW 4 11 7999 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 50 50 E 3 9 7999 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 50 50 E 3 9 7999 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 49 49 E 3 9 7999 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 49 49 ESE 2 9 7999 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 49 49 ESE 2 9 7999 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 49 49 ESE 2 9 7999 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 49 49 SE 3 11 7999 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 50 50 SE 3 11 7999 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 51 51 SE 3 11 7999 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 53 53 S 5 16 7999 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 55 56 S 5 16 7999 9950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 57 60 S 5 16 8382 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 59 63 SSW 11 24 13484 9950 0 Blue 3
1 PM Tue 61 66 SSW 11 24 15482 13301 3351 White 6
2 PM Tue 62 67 SSW 11 24 15703 14598 4648 White 7
3 PM Tue 63 67 SW 12 27 15703 14598 4648 White 7
4 PM Tue 64 67 SW 12 27 15703 14598 4648 White 7
5 PM Tue 64 66 SW 12 27 15482 13301 3351 White 6
6 PM Tue 63 63 SW 9 23 13484 9950 0 Blue 3
7 PM Tue 60 60 SW 9 23 8382 9950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 57 57 SW 9 23 7999 9950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 54 54 SSW 5 13 7999 9950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 53 53 SSW 5 13 7999 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 52 52 SSW 5 13 7999 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 52 52 SSE 8 18 7999 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 52 52 SSE 8 18 7999 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 51 51 SSE 8 18 7999 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 51 51 SSE 9 21 7999 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 51 51 SSE 9 21 7999 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 51 51 SSE 9 21 7999 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 51 51 SSE 9 20 7999 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 52 52 SSE 9 20 7999 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 53 53 SSE 9 20 7999 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 54 54 S 8 18 7999 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 56 57 S 8 18 7999 9950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 58 60 S 8 18 8382 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 60 64 SSW 9 21 14869 10825 875 Blue 4
1 PM Wed 61 65 SSW 9 21 15260 11950 2000 White 5
2 PM Wed 62 66 SSW 9 21 15482 13301 3351 White 6
3 PM Wed 62 66 SW 8 20 15482 13301 3351 White 6
4 PM Wed 62 65 SW 8 20 15260 11950 2000 White 5
5 PM Wed 63 64 SW 8 20 14869 10825 875 Blue 4
6 PM Wed 62 62 WSW 5 17 12086 9950 0 Blue 2
7 PM Wed 60 60 WSW 5 17 8382 9950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 58 58 WSW 5 17 7999 9950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 56 56 SE 5 12 7999 9950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 55 55 SE 5 12 7999 9950 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]