Detailed Predictions for: Jupiter
Launch Altitude (f): 9950
LZ Altitude (f): 8200
Sounding

Station:

 KSLC

Date/Time:

 20 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
6 AM Sun 23 23 W 23 11459 10771 821 White 4
7 AM Sun 23 23 W 23 11459 10771 821 White 4
8 AM Sun 27 27 W 23 12331 12331 2381 White 8
9 AM Sun 27 27 W 21 12331 12331 2381 White 8
10 AM Sun 20 20 W 21 10799 9950 0 White 1
11 AM Sun 18 18 W 21 5171 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 17 17 W 21 5171 9950 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 19 19 W 21 9304 9950 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 20 20 W 21 10799 9950 0 White 1
3 PM Sun 21 21 W 18 11020 9950 0 White 2
4 PM Sun 21 21 W 18 11020 9950 0 White 2
5 PM Sun 27 27 W 18 12331 12331 2381 White 8
6 PM Sun 21 21 W 16 11020 9950 0 White 2
7 PM Sun 27 27 W 16 12331 12331 2381 White 8
8 PM Sun 27 27 W 16 12331 12331 2381 White 8
9 PM Sun 26 26 W 10 12113 12113 2163 White 7
10 PM Sun 26 26 W 10 12113 12113 2163 White 7
11 PM Sun 29 29 W 10 12766 12766 2816 White 10
12 Midnight Mon 29 29 SW 3 12766 12766 2816 White 10
1 AM Mon 29 29 SW 3 12766 12766 2816 White 10
2 AM Mon 29 29 SW 3 12766 12766 2816 White 10
3 AM Mon 30 30 W 17 12982 12982 3032 White 11
4 AM Mon 33 33 W 17 13630 13630 3680 White 14
5 AM Mon 33 33 W 17 13630 13630 3680 White 14
6 AM Mon 33 33 NW 13 13630 13630 3680 White 14
7 AM Mon 34 34 NW 13 13845 13845 3895 White 15
8 AM Mon 33 33 NW 13 13630 13630 3680 White 14
9 AM Mon 33 33 NW 18 13630 13630 3680 White 14
10 AM Mon 30 30 NW 18 12982 12982 3032 White 11
11 AM Mon 28 28 NW 18 12549 12549 2599 White 9
12 Noon Mon 26 26 NW 17 12113 12113 2163 White 7
1 PM Mon 29 29 NW 17 12766 12766 2816 White 10
2 PM Mon 31 31 NW 17 13199 13199 3249 White 12
3 PM Mon 31 31 NW 17 13199 13199 3249 White 12
4 PM Mon 31 31 NW 17 13199 13199 3249 White 12
5 PM Mon 31 31 NW 17 13199 13199 3249 White 12
6 PM Mon 31 31 W 10 13199 13199 3249 White 12
7 PM Mon 32 32 W 10 13414 13414 3464 White 13
8 PM Mon 33 33 W 10 13630 13630 3680 White 14
9 PM Mon 33 33 W 10 13630 13630 3680 White 14
10 PM Mon 34 34 W 10 13845 13845 3895 White 15
11 PM Mon 34 34 W 10 13845 13845 3895 White 15
12 Midnight Tue 34 34 SW 8 13845 13845 3895 White 15
1 AM Tue 34 34 SW 8 13845 13845 3895 White 15
2 AM Tue 34 34 SW 8 13845 13845 3895 White 15
3 AM Tue 34 34 SW 8 13845 13845 3895 White 15
4 AM Tue 35 35 SW 8 14060 14060 4110 White 16
5 AM Tue 36 36 SW 8 14273 14273 4323 White 17
6 AM Tue 37 37 SW 7 14482 14482 4532 White 18
7 AM Tue 37 37 SW 7 14482 14482 4532 White 18
8 AM Tue 37 37 SW 7 14482 14482 4532 White 18
9 AM Tue 37 37 SW 7 14482 14482 4532 White 18
10 AM Tue 36 36 SW 7 14273 14273 4323 White 17
11 AM Tue 35 36 SW 7 14273 14273 4323 White 17
12 Noon Tue 36 38 W 9 14691 14691 4741 White 19
1 PM Tue 37 39 W 9 14900 14900 4950 White 20
2 PM Tue 39 41 W 9 15315 15315 5365 White 22
3 PM Tue 41 43 W 9 15730 15730 5780 White 24
4 PM Tue 41 42 W 9 15523 15523 5573 White 23
5 PM Tue 39 39 W 9 14900 14900 4950 White 20
6 PM Tue 36 36 W 7 14273 14273 4323 White 17
7 PM Tue 36 36 W 7 14273 14273 4323 White 17
8 PM Tue 38 38 W 7 14691 14691 4741 White 19
9 PM Tue 41 41 W 7 15315 15315 5365 White 22
10 PM Tue 41 41 W 7 15315 15315 5365 White 22
11 PM Tue 42 42 W 7 15523 15523 5573 White 23
12 Midnight Wed 42 42 W 8 15523 15523 5573 White 23
1 AM Wed 42 42 W 8 15523 15523 5573 White 23
2 AM Wed 42 42 W 8 15523 15523 5573 White 23
3 AM Wed 42 42 W 8 15523 15523 5573 White 23
4 AM Wed 42 42 W 8 15523 15523 5573 White 23
5 AM Wed 41 41 W 8 15315 15315 5365 White 22
6 AM Wed 41 41 W 8 15315 15315 5365 White 22
7 AM Wed 39 39 W 8 14900 14900 4950 White 20
8 AM Wed 38 38 W 8 14691 14691 4741 White 19
9 AM Wed 32 32 W 8 13414 13414 3464 White 13
10 AM Wed 33 33 W 8 13630 13630 3680 White 14
11 AM Wed 29 30 W 8 12982 12982 3032 White 11
12 Noon Wed 28 30 NW 9 12982 12982 3032 White 11
1 PM Wed 28 30 NW 9 12982 12982 3032 White 11
2 PM Wed 30 32 NW 9 13414 13414 3464 White 13
3 PM Wed 32 34 NW 9 13845 13845 3895 White 15
4 PM Wed 31 32 NW 9 13414 13414 3464 White 13
5 PM Wed 29 29 NW 9 12766 12766 2816 White 10
6 PM Wed 38 38 NW 10 14691 14691 4741 White 19
7 PM Wed 38 38 NW 10 14691 14691 4741 White 19
8 PM Wed 36 36 NW 10 14273 14273 4323 White 17
9 PM Wed 34 34 NW 10 13845 13845 3895 White 15
10 PM Wed 31 31 NW 10 13199 13199 3249 White 12
11 PM Wed 29 29 NW 10 12766 12766 2816 White 10
12 Midnight Thu 27 27 NW 7 12331 12331 2381 White 8
1 AM Thu 25 25 NW 7 11895 11780 1830 White 6
2 AM Thu 24 24 NW 7 11677 11283 1333 White 5
3 AM Thu 23 23 NW 7 11459 10771 821 White 4
4 AM Thu 23 23 NW 7 11459 10771 821 White 4
5 AM Thu 23 23 NW 7 11459 10771 821 White 4
6 AM Thu 23 23 N 7 11459 10771 821 White 4
7 AM Thu 24 24 N 7 11677 11283 1333 White 5
8 AM Thu 25 25 N 7 11895 11780 1830 White 6
9 AM Thu 25 25 N 7 11895 11780 1830 White 6
10 AM Thu 26 26 N 7 12113 12113 2163 White 7
11 AM Thu 28 29 N 7 12766 12766 2816 White 10
12 Noon Thu 29 31 W 5 13199 13199 3249 White 12
1 PM Thu 31 33 W 5 13630 13630 3680 White 14
2 PM Thu 32 34 W 5 13845 13845 3895 White 15
3 PM Thu 33 35 W 5 14060 14060 4110 White 16
4 PM Thu 34 35 W 5 14060 14060 4110 White 16
5 PM Thu 35 35 W 5 14060 14060 4110 White 16
6 PM Thu 35 35 NW 6 14060 14060 4110 White 16
7 PM Thu 34 34 NW 6 13845 13845 3895 White 15
8 PM Thu 33 33 NW 6 13630 13630 3680 White 14
9 PM Thu 31 31 NW 6 13199 13199 3249 White 12
10 PM Thu 29 29 NW 6 12766 12766 2816 White 10
11 PM Thu 28 28 NW 6 12549 12549 2599 White 9
12 Midnight Fri 27 27 SW 6 12331 12331 2381 White 8
1 AM Fri 26 26 SW 6 12113 12113 2163 White 7
2 AM Fri 26 26 SW 6 12113 12113 2163 White 7
3 AM Fri 26 26 SW 6 12113 12113 2163 White 7
4 AM Fri 27 27 SW 6 12331 12331 2381 White 8
5 AM Fri 28 28 SW 6 12549 12549 2599 White 9
6 AM Fri 29 29 SW 6 12766 12766 2816 White 10
7 AM Fri 30 30 SW 6 12982 12982 3032 White 11
8 AM Fri 31 31 SW 6 13199 13199 3249 White 12
9 AM Fri 32 32 SW 6 13414 13414 3464 White 13
10 AM Fri 34 35 SW 6 14060 14060 4110 White 16
11 AM Fri 35 37 SW 6 14482 14482 4532 White 18
12 Noon Fri 37 40 SW 5 15108 15108 5158 White 21
1 PM Fri 38 41 SW 5 15315 15315 5365 White 22
2 PM Fri 39 42 SW 5 15523 15523 5573 White 23
3 PM Fri 41 43 SW 5 15730 15730 5780 White 24
4 PM Fri 42 43 SW 5 15730 15730 5780 White 24
5 PM Fri 43 43 SW 5 15730 15730 5780 White 24
6 PM Fri 43 43 SW 6 15730 15730 5780 White 24
7 PM Fri 43 43 SW 6 15730 15730 5780 White 24
8 PM Fri 42 42 SW 6 15523 15523 5573 White 23
9 PM Fri 41 41 SW 6 15315 15315 5365 White 22
10 PM Fri 39 39 SW 6 14900 14900 4950 White 20
11 PM Fri 38 38 SW 6 14691 14691 4741 White 19
12 Midnight Sat 36 36 SW 7 14273 14273 4323 White 17
1 AM Sat 35 35 SW 7 14060 14060 4110 White 16
2 AM Sat 34 34 SW 7 13845 13845 3895 White 15
3 AM Sat 33 33 SW 7 13630 13630 3680 White 14
4 AM Sat 33 33 SW 7 13630 13630 3680 White 14
5 AM Sat 33 33 SW 7 13630 13630 3680 White 14

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]