Detailed Predictions for: Jupiter
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 40.606, -111.5089, 9950
LZ Altitude (f): 8200
Sounding

Station:

 KSLC

Date/Time:

 6 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Wed 33 33 SSW 11 14 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 33 33 SSW 11 14 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 33 33 SSW 11 16 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 33 33 SSW 11 16 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 31 31 SSW 11 16 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 31 31 S 11 17 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 31 31 S 11 17 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 30 30 S 11 17 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 30 30 S 12 16 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 32 32 S 12 16 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 35 35 S 12 16 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 37 38 S 13 20 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 38 39 S 13 20 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 40 41 S 13 20 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 41 42 S 16 20 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 40 40 S 16 20 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 39 39 S 16 20 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 37 37 S 16 21 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 35 35 S 16 21 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 36 36 S 16 21 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 36 36 S 17 28 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 36 36 S 17 28 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 36 36 S 17 28 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 36 36 SSW 20 33 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 36 36 SSW 20 33 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 35 35 SSW 20 33 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 34 34 SSW 19 33 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 34 34 SSW 19 33 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 33 33 SSW 19 33 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 32 32 SW 17 23 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 31 31 SW 17 23 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 30 30 SW 17 23 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 30 30 WSW 12 19 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 28 28 WSW 12 19 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 29 29 WSW 12 19 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 28 28 W 13 19 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 29 29 W 13 19 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 29 29 W 13 19 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 28 28 WSW 12 17 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 26 26 WSW 12 17 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 25 25 WSW 12 17 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 23 23 W 9 12 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 22 22 W 9 12 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 22 22 W 9 12 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 22 22 WNW 6 11 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 22 22 WNW 6 11 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 21 21 WNW 6 11 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 21 21 SW 5 12 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 21 21 SW 5 12 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 22 22 SW 5 12 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 22 22 SW 8 13 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 22 22 SW 8 13 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 22 22 SW 8 13 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 21 21 W 8 13 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 20 20 W 8 13 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 20 20 W 8 13 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 19 19 W 11 17 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 18 18 W 11 17 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 18 18 W 11 17 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 17 17 WNW 13 18 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 17 17 WNW 13 18 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 15 15 WNW 13 18 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 15 15 WNW 14 20 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 15 15 WNW 14 20 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 14 14 WNW 14 20 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 14 14 WNW 12 18 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 15 15 WNW 12 18 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 15 15 WNW 12 18 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 15 15 WNW 10 16 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 15 15 WNW 10 16 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 15 15 WNW 10 16 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 15 15 WNW 10 13 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 14 14 WNW 10 13 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 14 14 WNW 10 13 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 13 13 WNW 10 14 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 12 12 WNW 10 14 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 12 12 WNW 10 14 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 10 10 WNW 8 12 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 10 10 WNW 8 12 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 10 10 WNW 8 12 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 10 10 SW 6 10 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 10 10 SW 6 10 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 12 12 SW 6 10 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 14 15 SW 6 10 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 15 16 SW 6 10 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 15 16 SW 6 10 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 17 17 SW 8 11 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 15 15 SW 8 11 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 15 15 SW 8 11 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 14 14 SSW 8 11 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 13 13 SSW 8 11 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 13 13 SSW 8 11 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 13 13 SSW 9 12 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 13 13 SSW 9 12 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 14 14 SSW 9 12 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 14 14 SSW 9 13 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 15 15 SSW 9 13 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 15 15 SSW 9 13 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 15 15 SSW 10 16 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 17 17 SSW 10 16 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 18 18 SSW 10 16 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 19 19 SSW 9 14 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 19 19 SSW 9 14 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 19 19 SSW 9 14 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 19 19 SSW 9 13 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 20 20 SSW 9 13 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 21 21 SSW 9 13 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 22 22 SW 9 12 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 22 22 SW 9 12 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 23 23 SW 9 12 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 23 23 W 9 13 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 23 23 W 9 13 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 22 22 W 9 13 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 21 21 W 8 12 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 21 21 W 8 12 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 21 21 W 8 12 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 21 21 W 9 12 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 21 21 W 9 12 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 21 21 W 9 12 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 21 21 WSW 9 12 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 21 21 WSW 9 12 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 22 22 WSW 9 12 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 22 22 SW 9 13 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 22 22 SW 9 13 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 22 22 SW 9 13 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 21 21 WSW 8 11 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 21 21 WSW 8 11 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 20 20 WSW 8 11 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 20 20 WSW 6 10 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 21 21 WSW 6 10 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 22 22 WSW 6 10 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 23 23 WSW 6 10 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 24 24 WSW 6 10 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 25 25 WSW 6 10 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 25 25 W 6 11 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 25 25 W 6 11 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 24 24 W 6 11 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 23 23 W 6 11 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 22 22 W 6 11 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 22 22 W 6 11 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 22 22 W 6 11 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 22 22 W 6 11 8327 9950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 22 22 W 6 11 8327 9950 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]