Detailed Predictions for: Jupiter
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 40.606, -111.5089, 9950
LZ Altitude (f): 8200
Sounding

Station:

KSLC

Date/Time:

19 JUN 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 42 42 NW 5 12 8097 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 42 42 NW 5 12 8097 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 42 42 NW 5 12 8097 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 41 41 WNW 5 12 8097 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 41 41 WNW 5 12 8097 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 41 41 WNW 5 12 8097 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 39 39 NW 5 12 8097 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 41 41 NW 5 12 8097 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 44 44 NW 5 12 8097 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 46 47 S 4 11 11181 9950 0 Blue 1
10 AM Wed 51 53 S 4 11 16999 13294 3344 Blue 7
11 AM Wed 53 56 S 4 11 18200 16904 6954 Blue 10
12 Noon Wed 55 60 S 5 14 19755 18658 8708 Blue 14
1 PM Wed 59 65 S 5 14 21917 20296 10346 Blue 19
2 PM Wed 60 66 S 5 14 22713 20465 10515 Blue 20
3 PM Wed 60 63 SSW 6 18 20534 19642 9692 Blue 17
4 PM Wed 62 64 SSW 6 18 21033 19939 9989 Blue 18
5 PM Wed 60 61 SSW 6 18 20055 19039 9089 Blue 15
6 PM Wed 60 60 SW 6 17 19755 18658 8708 Blue 14
7 PM Wed 59 59 SW 6 17 19453 17975 8025 Blue 13
8 PM Wed 55 55 SW 6 17 17679 15886 5936 Blue 9
9 PM Wed 52 52 NW 6 17 16274 12580 2630 Blue 6
10 PM Wed 52 52 NW 6 17 16274 12580 2630 Blue 6
11 PM Wed 52 52 NW 6 17 16274 12580 2630 Blue 6
12 Midnight Thu 51 51 N 6 14 14284 11876 1926 Blue 5
1 AM Thu 51 51 N 6 14 14284 11876 1926 Blue 5
2 AM Thu 50 50 N 6 14 13331 11119 1169 Blue 4
3 AM Thu 49 49 SSE 6 14 12666 10000 50 Blue 3
4 AM Thu 50 50 SSE 6 14 13331 11119 1169 Blue 4
5 AM Thu 49 49 SSE 6 14 12666 10000 50 Blue 3
6 AM Thu 48 48 S 6 14 11950 9950 0 Blue 2
7 AM Thu 49 49 S 6 14 12666 10000 50 Blue 3
8 AM Thu 52 52 S 6 14 16274 12580 2630 Blue 6
9 AM Thu 55 57 SE 5 14 18840 17243 7293 Blue 11
10 AM Thu 59 62 SE 5 14 20364 19342 9392 Blue 16
11 AM Thu 62 66 SE 5 14 22713 20465 10515 Blue 20
12 Noon Thu 64 71 S 8 19 25020 23660 13710 White 25
1 PM Thu 66 74 S 8 19 25593 25175 15225 White 28
2 PM Thu 67 75 S 8 19 25784 25630 15680 White 29
3 PM Thu 68 75 SSW 11 24 25784 25630 15680 White 29
4 PM Thu 69 74 SSW 11 24 25593 25175 15225 White 28
5 PM Thu 69 73 SSW 11 24 25401 24706 14756 White 27
6 PM Thu 68 70 SW 10 23 24828 23077 13127 White 24
7 PM Thu 65 65 SW 10 23 21917 20296 10346 Blue 19
8 PM Thu 62 62 SW 10 23 20364 19342 9392 Blue 16
9 PM Thu 59 59 N 8 18 19453 17975 8025 Blue 13
10 PM Thu 58 58 N 8 18 19148 17578 7628 Blue 12
11 PM Thu 57 57 N 8 18 18840 17243 7293 Blue 11
12 Midnight Fri 56 56 ESE 8 17 18200 16904 6954 Blue 10
1 AM Fri 55 55 ESE 8 17 17679 15886 5936 Blue 9
2 AM Fri 54 54 ESE 8 17 17341 13779 3829 Blue 8
3 AM Fri 53 53 SE 10 19 16999 13294 3344 Blue 7
4 AM Fri 52 52 SE 10 19 16274 12580 2630 Blue 6
5 AM Fri 52 52 SE 10 19 16274 12580 2630 Blue 6
6 AM Fri 52 52 SE 10 20 16274 12580 2630 Blue 6
7 AM Fri 53 53 SE 10 20 16999 13294 3344 Blue 7
8 AM Fri 55 55 SE 10 20 17679 15886 5936 Blue 9
9 AM Fri 57 58 SSE 10 23 19148 17578 7628 Blue 12
10 AM Fri 60 63 SSE 10 23 20534 19642 9692 Blue 17
11 AM Fri 64 68 SSE 10 23 23878 21532 11582 Blue 22
12 Noon Fri 66 69 S 11 25 24376 22339 12389 Blue 23
1 PM Fri 66 70 S 11 25 24828 23077 13127 White 24
2 PM Fri 65 69 S 11 25 24376 22339 12389 Blue 23
3 PM Fri 64 67 SSW 11 25 23444 20633 10683 Blue 21
4 PM Fri 63 66 SSW 11 25 22713 20465 10515 Blue 20
5 PM Fri 62 64 SSW 11 25 21033 19939 9989 Blue 18
6 PM Fri 61 62 SSW 10 21 20364 19342 9392 Blue 16
7 PM Fri 59 59 SSW 10 21 19453 17975 8025 Blue 13
8 PM Fri 57 57 SSW 10 21 18840 17243 7293 Blue 11
9 PM Fri 55 55 SSE 8 18 17679 15886 5936 Blue 9
10 PM Fri 55 55 SSE 8 18 17679 15886 5936 Blue 9
11 PM Fri 55 55 SSE 8 18 17679 15886 5936 Blue 9
12 Midnight Sat 55 55 SE 8 17 17679 15886 5936 Blue 9
1 AM Sat 54 54 SE 8 17 17341 13779 3829 Blue 8
2 AM Sat 53 53 SE 8 17 16999 13294 3344 Blue 7
3 AM Sat 52 52 SE 8 16 16274 12580 2630 Blue 6
4 AM Sat 51 51 SE 8 16 14284 11876 1926 Blue 5
5 AM Sat 50 50 SE 8 16 13331 11119 1169 Blue 4
6 AM Sat 50 50 SE 6 14 13331 11119 1169 Blue 4
7 AM Sat 52 52 SE 6 14 16274 12580 2630 Blue 6
8 AM Sat 55 56 SE 6 14 18200 16904 6954 Blue 10
9 AM Sat 58 60 SSE 6 16 19755 18658 8708 Blue 14
10 AM Sat 62 66 SSE 6 16 22713 20465 10515 Blue 20
11 AM Sat 65 71 SSE 6 16 25020 23660 13710 White 25
12 Noon Sat 68 75 SSW 8 19 25784 25630 15680 White 29
1 PM Sat 70 78 SSW 8 19 26348 26348 16398 White 31
2 PM Sat 71 79 SSW 8 19 26535 26535 16585 White 32
3 PM Sat 72 79 WSW 9 21 26535 26535 16585 White 32
4 PM Sat 72 77 WSW 9 21 26159 26159 16209 White 30
5 PM Sat 72 76 WSW 9 21 25972 25972 16022 White 29
6 PM Sat 70 72 W 8 19 25210 24059 14109 White 26
7 PM Sat 68 68 W 8 19 23878 21532 11582 Blue 22
8 PM Sat 65 65 W 8 19 21917 20296 10346 Blue 19
9 PM Sat 62 62 E 8 17 20364 19342 9392 Blue 16
10 PM Sat 61 61 E 8 17 20055 19039 9089 Blue 15
11 PM Sat 60 60 E 8 17 19755 18658 8708 Blue 14
12 Midnight Sun 60 60 SE 8 16 19755 18658 8708 Blue 14
1 AM Sun 59 59 SE 8 16 19453 17975 8025 Blue 13
2 AM Sun 58 58 SE 8 16 19148 17578 7628 Blue 12
3 AM Sun 57 57 SE 9 18 18840 17243 7293 Blue 11
4 AM Sun 56 56 SE 9 18 18200 16904 6954 Blue 10
5 AM Sun 55 55 SE 9 18 17679 15886 5936 Blue 9
6 AM Sun 55 55 SSE 9 18 17679 15886 5936 Blue 9
7 AM Sun 57 57 SSE 9 18 18840 17243 7293 Blue 11
8 AM Sun 60 61 SSE 9 18 20055 19039 9089 Blue 15
9 AM Sun 63 65 S 9 19 21917 20296 10346 Blue 19
10 AM Sun 67 71 S 9 19 25020 23660 13710 White 25
11 AM Sun 70 76 S 9 19 25972 25972 16022 White 29
12 Noon Sun 72 79 SW 11 23 26535 26535 16585 White 32
1 PM Sun 74 82 SW 11 23 27093 27093 17143 White 35
2 PM Sun 74 82 SW 11 23 27093 27093 17143 White 35
3 PM Sun 74 80 WSW 11 24 26721 26721 16771 White 33
4 PM Sun 74 79 WSW 11 24 26535 26535 16585 White 32
5 PM Sun 74 77 WSW 11 24 26159 26159 16209 White 30
6 PM Sun 72 73 SW 10 24 25401 24706 14756 White 27
7 PM Sun 70 70 SW 10 24 24828 23077 13127 White 24
8 PM Sun 67 67 SW 10 24 23444 20633 10683 Blue 21
9 PM Sun 64 64 S 9 19 21033 19939 9989 Blue 18
10 PM Sun 63 63 S 9 19 20534 19642 9692 Blue 17
11 PM Sun 62 62 S 9 19 20364 19342 9392 Blue 16
12 Midnight Mon 61 61 SSE 8 17 20055 19039 9089 Blue 15
1 AM Mon 60 60 SSE 8 17 19755 18658 8708 Blue 14
2 AM Mon 59 59 SSE 8 17 19453 17975 8025 Blue 13
3 AM Mon 58 58 SSE 8 17 19148 17578 7628 Blue 12
4 AM Mon 57 57 SSE 8 17 18840 17243 7293 Blue 11
5 AM Mon 56 56 SSE 8 17 18200 16904 6954 Blue 10
6 AM Mon 56 56 SSE 8 16 18200 16904 6954 Blue 10
7 AM Mon 58 58 SSE 8 16 19148 17578 7628 Blue 12
8 AM Mon 60 61 SSE 8 16 20055 19039 9089 Blue 15
9 AM Mon 63 65 SSW 8 18 21917 20296 10346 Blue 19
10 AM Mon 66 70 SSW 8 18 24828 23077 13127 White 24
11 AM Mon 69 75 SSW 8 18 25784 25630 15680 White 29
12 Noon Mon 71 78 SW 9 21 26348 26348 16398 White 31
1 PM Mon 73 80 SW 9 21 26721 26721 16771 White 33
2 PM Mon 74 81 SW 9 21 26908 26908 16958 White 34
3 PM Mon 74 81 WSW 11 24 26908 26908 16958 White 34
4 PM Mon 74 79 WSW 11 24 26535 26535 16585 White 32
5 PM Mon 73 76 WSW 11 24 25972 25972 16022 White 29
6 PM Mon 72 74 W 10 23 25593 25175 15225 White 28
7 PM Mon 69 69 W 10 23 24376 22339 12389 Blue 23
8 PM Mon 66 66 W 10 23 22713 20465 10515 Blue 20
9 PM Mon 64 64 NNW 8 17 21033 19939 9989 Blue 18
10 PM Mon 63 63 NNW 8 17 20534 19642 9692 Blue 17

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]