Detailed Predictions for: Mollies Nipple
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.1239, -113.298, 4375
LZ Altitude (f): 3320
Sounding

Station:

 KSLC

Date/Time:

 5 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Tue 48 48 E 11 14 4516 4375 0 Blue 6
1 AM Tue 48 48 E 11 14 4516 4375 0 Blue 6
2 AM Tue 47 47 E 10 11 4467 4375 0 Blue 5
3 AM Tue 45 45 E 10 11 4368 4375 0 Blue 3
4 AM Tue 45 45 E 10 11 4368 4375 0 Blue 3
5 AM Tue 44 44 NE 6 8 4319 4375 0 Blue 2
6 AM Tue 42 42 NE 6 8 0 4375 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 42 42 NE 6 8 0 4375 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 42 42 NE 5 10 0 4375 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 45 45 NE 5 10 4368 4375 0 Blue 3
10 AM Tue 50 51 NE 5 10 4842 4514 139 Blue 9
11 AM Tue 57 59 E 5 12 6476 5671 1296 Blue 17
12 Noon Tue 60 62 E 5 12 7968 6450 2075 Blue 20
1 PM Tue 61 63 E 5 12 8125 6707 2332 Blue 21
2 PM Tue 64 66 E 5 11 8594 8100 3725 Blue 24
3 PM Tue 64 65 E 5 11 8438 7891 3516 Blue 23
4 PM Tue 64 64 E 5 11 8281 7256 2881 Blue 22
5 PM Tue 61 61 SE 8 17 7340 6192 1817 Blue 19
6 PM Tue 55 55 SE 8 17 5428 4970 595 Blue 13
7 PM Tue 54 54 SE 8 17 5219 4831 456 Blue 12
8 PM Tue 52 52 ENE 10 18 4976 4564 189 Blue 10
9 PM Tue 52 52 ENE 10 18 4976 4564 189 Blue 10
10 PM Tue 50 50 ENE 10 18 4615 4465 90 Blue 8
11 PM Tue 50 50 ENE 9 13 4615 4465 90 Blue 8
12 Midnight Wed 49 49 ENE 9 13 4565 4416 41 Blue 7
1 AM Wed 47 47 ENE 9 13 4467 4375 0 Blue 5
2 AM Wed 46 46 ENE 9 11 4418 4375 0 Blue 4
3 AM Wed 47 47 ENE 9 11 4467 4375 0 Blue 5
4 AM Wed 45 45 ENE 9 11 4368 4375 0 Blue 3
5 AM Wed 44 44 ENE 8 11 4319 4375 0 Blue 2
6 AM Wed 42 42 ENE 8 11 0 4375 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 42 42 ENE 8 11 0 4375 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 42 42 NE 8 10 0 4375 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 45 45 NE 8 10 4368 4375 0 Blue 3
10 AM Wed 50 51 NE 8 10 4842 4514 139 Blue 9
11 AM Wed 56 58 ENE 6 11 6215 5411 1036 Blue 16
12 Noon Wed 60 62 ENE 6 11 7968 6450 2075 Blue 20
1 PM Wed 62 64 ENE 6 11 8281 7256 2881 Blue 22
2 PM Wed 63 64 SSW 8 12 8281 7256 2881 Blue 22
3 PM Wed 63 63 SSW 8 12 8125 6707 2332 Blue 21
4 PM Wed 62 62 SSW 8 12 7968 6450 2075 Blue 20
5 PM Wed 60 60 SE 5 10 6735 5932 1557 Blue 18
6 PM Wed 57 57 SE 5 10 5954 5212 837 Blue 15
7 PM Wed 54 54 SE 5 10 5219 4831 456 Blue 12
8 PM Wed 51 51 ESE 9 11 4842 4514 139 Blue 9
9 PM Wed 50 50 ESE 9 11 4615 4465 90 Blue 8
10 PM Wed 50 50 ESE 9 11 4615 4465 90 Blue 8
11 PM Wed 50 50 E 10 13 4615 4465 90 Blue 8
12 Midnight Thu 49 49 E 10 13 4565 4416 41 Blue 7
1 AM Thu 48 48 E 10 13 4516 4375 0 Blue 6
2 AM Thu 47 47 E 8 10 4467 4375 0 Blue 5
3 AM Thu 45 45 E 8 10 4368 4375 0 Blue 3
4 AM Thu 43 43 E 8 10 4270 4375 0 Blue 1
5 AM Thu 42 42 E 6 10 0 4375 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 41 41 E 6 10 0 4375 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 40 40 E 6 10 0 4375 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 41 41 E 5 9 0 4375 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 44 44 E 5 9 4319 4375 0 Blue 2
10 AM Thu 49 50 E 5 9 4615 4465 90 Blue 8
11 AM Thu 53 54 S 4 5 5219 4831 456 Blue 12
12 Noon Thu 56 58 S 4 5 6215 5411 1036 Blue 16
1 PM Thu 58 60 S 4 5 6735 5932 1557 Blue 18
2 PM Thu 59 60 WSW 8 12 6735 5932 1557 Blue 18
3 PM Thu 59 59 WSW 8 12 6476 5671 1296 Blue 17
4 PM Thu 57 57 WSW 8 12 5954 5212 837 Blue 15
5 PM Thu 55 55 W 5 9 5428 4970 595 Blue 13
6 PM Thu 53 53 W 5 9 5098 4613 238 Blue 11
7 PM Thu 51 51 W 5 9 4842 4514 139 Blue 9
8 PM Thu 49 49 N 5 6 4565 4416 41 Blue 7
9 PM Thu 48 48 N 5 6 4516 4375 0 Blue 6
10 PM Thu 47 47 N 5 6 4467 4375 0 Blue 5
11 PM Thu 46 46 NE 4 4 4418 4375 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Fri 45 45 NE 4 4 4368 4375 0 Blue 3
1 AM Fri 44 44 NE 4 4 4319 4375 0 Blue 2
2 AM Fri 43 43 E 5 6 4270 4375 0 Blue 1
3 AM Fri 41 41 E 5 6 0 4375 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 40 40 E 5 6 0 4375 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 38 38 NNE 5 10 0 4375 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 36 36 NNE 5 10 0 4375 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 35 35 NNE 5 10 0 4375 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 35 35 N 8 11 0 4375 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 38 38 N 8 11 0 4375 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 42 42 N 8 11 0 4375 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 46 47 NW 10 16 4467 4375 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Fri 49 51 NW 10 16 4842 4514 139 Blue 9
1 PM Fri 50 52 NW 10 16 4976 4564 189 Blue 10
2 PM Fri 51 52 NNW 13 20 4976 4564 189 Blue 10
3 PM Fri 51 52 NNW 13 20 4976 4564 189 Blue 10
4 PM Fri 50 50 NNW 13 20 4615 4465 90 Blue 8
5 PM Fri 48 48 N 13 20 4516 4375 0 Blue 6
6 PM Fri 46 46 N 13 20 4418 4375 0 Blue 4
7 PM Fri 43 43 N 13 20 4270 4375 0 Blue 1
8 PM Fri 41 41 NNE 11 17 0 4375 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 39 39 NNE 11 17 0 4375 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 38 38 NNE 11 17 0 4375 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 37 37 NE 10 13 0 4375 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 36 36 NE 10 13 0 4375 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 35 35 NE 10 13 0 4375 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 34 34 NE 9 12 0 4375 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 33 33 NE 9 12 0 4375 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 32 32 NE 9 12 0 4375 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 31 31 NE 8 12 0 4375 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 30 30 NE 8 12 0 4375 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 29 29 NE 8 12 0 4375 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 30 30 ENE 8 11 0 4375 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 33 33 ENE 8 11 0 4375 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 37 38 ENE 8 11 0 4375 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 41 42 ENE 8 11 0 4375 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 45 47 ENE 8 11 4467 4375 0 Blue 5
1 PM Sat 47 49 ENE 8 11 4565 4416 41 Blue 7
2 PM Sat 49 50 W 8 11 4615 4465 90 Blue 8
3 PM Sat 49 50 W 8 11 4615 4465 90 Blue 8
4 PM Sat 48 48 W 8 11 4516 4375 0 Blue 6
5 PM Sat 47 47 WNW 6 10 4467 4375 0 Blue 5
6 PM Sat 45 45 WNW 6 10 4368 4375 0 Blue 3
7 PM Sat 43 43 WNW 6 10 4270 4375 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sat 41 41 ENE 5 9 0 4375 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 40 40 ENE 5 9 0 4375 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 39 39 ENE 5 9 0 4375 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 38 38 E 5 9 0 4375 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 37 37 E 5 9 0 4375 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 36 36 E 5 9 0 4375 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 35 35 E 5 9 0 4375 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 35 35 E 5 9 0 4375 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 36 36 E 5 9 0 4375 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 36 36 E 5 9 0 4375 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 35 35 E 5 9 0 4375 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 35 35 E 5 9 0 4375 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 35 35 E 5 9 0 4375 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 38 38 E 5 9 0 4375 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 43 43 E 5 9 4270 4375 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sun 47 48 SSE 5 9 4516 4375 0 Blue 6
12 Noon Sun 50 51 SSE 5 9 4842 4514 139 Blue 9
1 PM Sun 53 54 SSE 5 9 5219 4831 456 Blue 12
2 PM Sun 54 55 W 8 11 5428 4970 595 Blue 13
3 PM Sun 55 55 W 8 11 5428 4970 595 Blue 13
4 PM Sun 54 54 W 8 11 5219 4831 456 Blue 12
5 PM Sun 52 52 NW 6 10 4976 4564 189 Blue 10
6 PM Sun 50 50 NW 6 10 4615 4465 90 Blue 8
7 PM Sun 48 48 NW 6 10 4516 4375 0 Blue 6
8 PM Sun 46 46 NE 6 10 4418 4375 0 Blue 4
9 PM Sun 45 45 NE 6 10 4368 4375 0 Blue 3
10 PM Sun 44 44 NE 6 10 4319 4375 0 Blue 2

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]