Detailed Predictions for: Mollies Nipple
Launch Altitude (f): 4375
LZ Altitude (f): 3320
Sounding

Station:

KSLC

Date/Time:

2 DEC 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Wed 31 31 NE 13 3498 4375 0 White 0
6 AM Wed 29 29 NE 13 3432 4375 0 White 0
7 AM Wed 28 28 NE 13 3432 4375 0 White 0
8 AM Wed 29 29 NE 15 3432 4375 0 White 0
9 AM Wed 34 34 NE 15 4159 4375 0 White 0
10 AM Wed 40 41 NE 15 5675 5191 816 White 13
11 AM Wed 45 46 NE 18 6750 6750 2375 White 18
12 Noon Wed 49 51 NE 18 7804 7804 3429 White 23
1 PM Wed 50 52 NE 18 8014 8014 3639 White 24
2 PM Wed 50 51 NE 20 7804 7804 3429 White 23
3 PM Wed 49 50 NE 20 7594 7594 3219 White 22
4 PM Wed 47 47 NE 20 6963 6963 2588 White 19
5 PM Wed 45 45 NE 16 6536 6265 1890 White 17
6 PM Wed 42 42 NE 16 5891 5368 993 White 14
7 PM Wed 39 39 NE 16 5240 5020 645 White 11
8 PM Wed 36 36 NE 15 4596 4596 221 White 8
9 PM Wed 35 35 NE 15 4377 4377 2 White 7
10 PM Wed 33 33 NE 15 3938 4375 0 White 0
11 PM Wed 32 32 E 13 3719 4375 0 White 0
12 Midnight Thu 31 31 E 13 3498 4375 0 White 0
1 AM Thu 30 30 E 13 3432 4375 0 White 0
2 AM Thu 30 30 E 10 3432 4375 0 White 0
3 AM Thu 30 30 E 10 3432 4375 0 White 0
4 AM Thu 29 29 E 10 3432 4375 0 White 0
5 AM Thu 29 29 E 8 3432 4375 0 White 0
6 AM Thu 27 27 E 8 3432 4375 0 White 0
7 AM Thu 25 25 E 8 3432 4375 0 White 0
8 AM Thu 26 26 E 7 3432 4375 0 White 0
9 AM Thu 30 30 E 7 3432 4375 0 White 0
10 AM Thu 37 38 E 7 5031 4945 570 White 10
11 AM Thu 44 45 W 7 6536 6265 1890 White 17
12 Noon Thu 48 50 W 7 7594 7594 3219 White 22
1 PM Thu 50 52 W 7 8014 8014 3639 White 24
2 PM Thu 50 51 W 7 7804 7804 3429 White 23
3 PM Thu 50 51 W 7 7804 7804 3429 White 23
4 PM Thu 48 48 W 7 7174 7174 2799 White 20
5 PM Thu 46 46 N 6 6750 6750 2375 White 18
6 PM Thu 43 43 N 6 6106 5547 1172 White 15
7 PM Thu 39 39 N 6 5240 5020 645 White 11
8 PM Thu 37 37 NE 9 4814 4814 439 White 9
9 PM Thu 35 35 NE 9 4377 4377 2 White 7
10 PM Thu 35 35 NE 9 4377 4377 2 White 7
11 PM Thu 34 34 NE 9 4159 4375 0 White 0
12 Midnight Fri 33 33 NE 9 3938 4375 0 White 0
1 AM Fri 32 32 NE 9 3719 4375 0 White 0
2 AM Fri 31 31 NE 7 3498 4375 0 White 0
3 AM Fri 32 32 NE 7 3719 4375 0 White 0
4 AM Fri 32 32 NE 7 3719 4375 0 White 0
5 AM Fri 31 31 NE 7 3498 4375 0 White 0
6 AM Fri 29 29 NE 7 3432 4375 0 White 0
7 AM Fri 28 28 NE 7 3432 4375 0 White 0
8 AM Fri 29 29 NE 8 3432 4375 0 White 0
9 AM Fri 34 34 NE 8 4159 4375 0 White 0
10 AM Fri 42 43 NE 8 6106 5547 1172 White 15
11 AM Fri 48 49 E 8 7384 7384 3009 White 21
12 Noon Fri 52 54 E 8 8431 8431 4056 White 26
1 PM Fri 54 56 E 8 8848 8848 4473 White 28
2 PM Fri 54 55 NE 7 8639 8639 4264 White 27
3 PM Fri 53 54 NE 7 8431 8431 4056 White 26
4 PM Fri 52 52 NE 7 8014 8014 3639 White 24
5 PM Fri 49 49 N 7 7384 7384 3009 White 21
6 PM Fri 44 44 N 7 6321 5726 1351 White 16
7 PM Fri 40 40 N 7 5458 5095 720 White 12
8 PM Fri 37 37 NE 12 4814 4814 439 White 9
9 PM Fri 35 35 NE 12 4377 4377 2 White 7
10 PM Fri 35 35 NE 12 4377 4377 2 White 7
11 PM Fri 35 35 NE 10 4377 4377 2 White 7
12 Midnight Sat 33 33 NE 10 3938 4375 0 White 0
1 AM Sat 31 31 NE 10 3498 4375 0 White 0
2 AM Sat 30 30 NE 9 3432 4375 0 White 0
3 AM Sat 31 31 NE 9 3498 4375 0 White 0
4 AM Sat 31 31 NE 9 3498 4375 0 White 0
5 AM Sat 31 31 NE 6 3498 4375 0 White 0
6 AM Sat 31 31 NE 6 3498 4375 0 White 0
7 AM Sat 29 29 NE 6 3432 4375 0 White 0
8 AM Sat 29 29 E 6 3432 4375 0 White 0
9 AM Sat 34 34 E 6 4159 4375 0 White 0
10 AM Sat 41 42 E 6 5891 5368 993 White 14
11 AM Sat 48 49 E 6 7384 7384 3009 White 21
12 Noon Sat 53 55 E 6 8639 8639 4264 White 27
1 PM Sat 57 59 E 6 9471 9471 5096 White 31
2 PM Sat 58 59 N 6 9471 9471 5096 White 31
3 PM Sat 58 59 N 6 9471 9471 5096 White 31
4 PM Sat 57 57 N 6 9056 9056 4681 White 29
5 PM Sat 55 55 NE 6 8639 8639 4264 White 27
6 PM Sat 52 52 NE 6 8014 8014 3639 White 24
7 PM Sat 48 48 NE 6 7174 7174 2799 White 20
8 PM Sat 45 45 NE 8 6536 6265 1890 White 17
9 PM Sat 43 43 NE 8 6106 5547 1172 White 15
10 PM Sat 42 42 NE 8 5891 5368 993 White 14
11 PM Sat 41 41 E 9 5675 5191 816 White 13
12 Midnight Sun 40 40 E 9 5458 5095 720 White 12
1 AM Sun 39 39 E 9 5240 5020 645 White 11
2 AM Sun 39 39 E 7 5240 5020 645 White 11
3 AM Sun 38 38 E 7 5031 4945 570 White 10
4 AM Sun 37 37 E 7 4814 4814 439 White 9
5 AM Sun 35 35 E 6 4377 4377 2 White 7
6 AM Sun 33 33 E 6 3938 4375 0 White 0
7 AM Sun 31 31 E 6 3498 4375 0 White 0
8 AM Sun 32 32 E 6 3719 4375 0 White 0
9 AM Sun 36 36 E 6 4596 4596 221 White 8
10 AM Sun 43 44 E 6 6321 5726 1351 White 16
11 AM Sun 50 51 E 6 7804 7804 3429 White 23
12 Noon Sun 55 57 E 6 9056 9056 4681 White 29
1 PM Sun 58 60 E 6 9678 9678 5303 White 32
2 PM Sun 59 60 NW 6 9678 9678 5303 White 32
3 PM Sun 59 60 NW 6 9678 9678 5303 White 32
4 PM Sun 58 58 NW 6 9264 9264 4889 White 30
5 PM Sun 55 55 NE 5 8639 8639 4264 White 27
6 PM Sun 52 52 NE 5 8014 8014 3639 White 24
7 PM Sun 49 49 NE 5 7384 7384 3009 White 21
8 PM Sun 46 46 NE 7 6750 6750 2375 White 18
9 PM Sun 44 44 NE 7 6321 5726 1351 White 16
10 PM Sun 43 43 NE 7 6106 5547 1172 White 15
11 PM Sun 43 43 NE 9 6106 5547 1172 White 15
12 Midnight Mon 41 41 NE 9 5675 5191 816 White 13
1 AM Mon 40 40 NE 9 5458 5095 720 White 12
2 AM Mon 39 39 E 7 5240 5020 645 White 11
3 AM Mon 38 38 E 7 5031 4945 570 White 10
4 AM Mon 37 37 E 7 4814 4814 439 White 9
5 AM Mon 35 35 E 7 4377 4377 2 White 7
6 AM Mon 33 33 E 7 3938 4375 0 White 0
7 AM Mon 32 32 E 7 3719 4375 0 White 0
8 AM Mon 33 33 E 7 3938 4375 0 White 0
9 AM Mon 37 37 E 7 4814 4814 439 White 9
10 AM Mon 44 45 E 7 6536 6265 1890 White 17
11 AM Mon 50 51 NE 7 7804 7804 3429 White 23
12 Noon Mon 55 57 NE 7 9056 9056 4681 White 29
1 PM Mon 58 60 NE 7 9678 9678 5303 White 32
2 PM Mon 59 60 N 7 9678 9678 5303 White 32
3 PM Mon 59 60 N 7 9678 9678 5303 White 32
4 PM Mon 58 58 N 7 9264 9264 4889 White 30
5 PM Mon 56 56 N 7 8848 8848 4473 White 28
6 PM Mon 53 53 N 7 8222 8222 3847 White 25
7 PM Mon 51 51 N 7 7804 7804 3429 White 23
8 PM Mon 48 48 NE 9 7174 7174 2799 White 20
9 PM Mon 46 46 NE 9 6750 6750 2375 White 18
10 PM Mon 45 45 NE 9 6536 6265 1890 White 17
11 PM Mon 44 44 NE 10 6321 5726 1351 White 16
12 Midnight Tue 43 43 NE 10 6106 5547 1172 White 15
1 AM Tue 42 42 NE 10 5891 5368 993 White 14
2 AM Tue 42 42 NE 8 5891 5368 993 White 14
3 AM Tue 41 41 NE 8 5675 5191 816 White 13
4 AM Tue 39 39 NE 8 5240 5020 645 White 11

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]