Detailed Predictions for: Mollies Nipple
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.1239, -113.298, 4375
LZ Altitude (f): 3320
Sounding

Station:

KSLC

Date/Time:

20 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
1 AM Sun 88 88 SSE 8 11 6139 4976 601 Blue 12
2 AM Sun 85 85 SSE 8 11 4985 4475 100 Blue 9
3 AM Sun 85 85 SE 8 11 4985 4475 100 Blue 9
4 AM Sun 83 83 SE 8 11 4520 4387 12 Blue 7
5 AM Sun 83 83 SE 8 11 4520 4387 12 Blue 7
6 AM Sun 82 82 SE 6 10 4476 4375 0 Blue 6
7 AM Sun 83 83 SE 6 10 4520 4387 12 Blue 7
8 AM Sun 84 84 SE 6 10 4776 4431 56 Blue 8
9 AM Sun 88 90 WNW 6 13 7886 5378 1003 Blue 14
10 AM Sun 94 98 WNW 6 13 13738 11257 6882 Blue 22
11 AM Sun 98 104 WNW 6 13 16692 16692 12317 White 27
12 Noon Sun 100 107 WSW 12 23 17290 17290 12915 White 30
1 PM Sun 104 112 WSW 12 23 18268 18268 13893 White 35
2 PM Sun 105 113 WSW 12 23 18465 18465 14090 White 36
3 PM Sun 106 114 WSW 17 27 18662 18662 14287 White 37
4 PM Sun 106 112 WSW 17 27 18268 18268 13893 White 35
5 PM Sun 107 111 WSW 17 27 18071 18071 13696 White 34
6 PM Sun 106 108 WSW 16 27 17485 17485 13110 White 31
7 PM Sun 105 106 WSW 16 27 17091 17091 12716 White 29
8 PM Sun 103 103 WSW 16 27 16492 16492 12117 White 26
9 PM Sun 97 97 SSW 11 20 12382 10902 6527 Blue 21
10 PM Sun 94 94 SSW 11 20 10987 8541 4166 Blue 18
11 PM Sun 90 90 SSW 11 20 7886 5378 1003 Blue 14
12 Midnight Mon 88 88 S 10 17 6139 4976 601 Blue 12
1 AM Mon 86 86 S 10 17 5188 4519 144 Blue 10
2 AM Mon 86 86 S 10 17 5188 4519 144 Blue 10
3 AM Mon 85 85 SSE 9 14 4985 4475 100 Blue 9
4 AM Mon 82 82 SSE 9 14 4476 4375 0 Blue 6
5 AM Mon 81 81 SSE 9 14 4432 4375 0 Blue 5
6 AM Mon 80 80 SE 6 10 4388 4375 0 Blue 4
7 AM Mon 80 80 SE 6 10 4388 4375 0 Blue 4
8 AM Mon 81 81 SE 6 10 4432 4375 0 Blue 5
9 AM Mon 86 88 SW 8 14 6139 4976 601 Blue 12
10 AM Mon 90 94 SW 8 14 10987 8541 4166 Blue 18
11 AM Mon 95 101 SW 8 14 16090 13295 8920 White 25
12 Noon Mon 99 107 WSW 14 19 17290 17290 12915 White 30
1 PM Mon 100 108 WSW 14 19 17485 17485 13110 White 31
2 PM Mon 101 110 WSW 14 19 17876 17876 13501 White 33
3 PM Mon 102 110 WSW 19 25 17876 17876 13501 White 33
4 PM Mon 103 109 WSW 19 25 17681 17681 13306 White 32
5 PM Mon 103 107 WSW 19 25 17290 17290 12915 White 30
6 PM Mon 102 104 WSW 20 27 16692 16692 12317 White 27
7 PM Mon 100 101 WSW 20 27 16090 13295 8920 White 25
8 PM Mon 97 97 WSW 20 27 12382 10902 6527 Blue 21
9 PM Mon 93 93 SW 12 19 10082 7776 3401 Blue 17
10 PM Mon 89 89 SW 12 19 7050 5177 802 Blue 13
11 PM Mon 86 86 SW 12 19 5188 4519 144 Blue 10
12 Midnight Tue 84 84 S 10 16 4776 4431 56 Blue 8
1 AM Tue 83 83 S 10 16 4520 4387 12 Blue 7
2 AM Tue 82 82 S 10 16 4476 4375 0 Blue 6
3 AM Tue 81 81 ESE 10 13 4432 4375 0 Blue 5
4 AM Tue 79 79 ESE 10 13 4344 4375 0 Blue 3
5 AM Tue 77 77 ESE 10 13 4257 4375 0 Blue 1
6 AM Tue 76 76 ESE 10 13 0 4375 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 77 77 ESE 10 13 4257 4375 0 Blue 1
8 AM Tue 79 79 ESE 10 13 4344 4375 0 Blue 3
9 AM Tue 83 85 S 10 13 4985 4475 100 Blue 9
10 AM Tue 87 90 S 10 13 7886 5378 1003 Blue 14
11 AM Tue 91 96 S 10 13 11708 9943 5568 Blue 20
12 Noon Tue 94 100 SW 17 23 15888 12059 7684 White 24
1 PM Tue 96 103 SW 17 23 16492 16492 12117 White 26
2 PM Tue 97 104 SW 17 23 16692 16692 12317 White 27
3 PM Tue 98 102 WSW 20 31 16291 16291 11916 White 25
4 PM Tue 98 101 WSW 20 31 16090 13295 8920 White 25
5 PM Tue 99 101 WSW 20 31 16090 13295 8920 White 25
6 PM Tue 99 100 WSW 20 32 15888 12059 7684 White 24
7 PM Tue 97 97 WSW 20 32 12382 10902 6527 Blue 21
8 PM Tue 94 94 WSW 20 32 10987 8541 4166 Blue 18
9 PM Tue 90 90 SW 16 25 7886 5378 1003 Blue 14
10 PM Tue 87 87 SW 16 25 5390 4765 390 Blue 11
11 PM Tue 84 84 SW 16 25 4776 4431 56 Blue 8
12 Midnight Wed 82 82 S 10 14 4476 4375 0 Blue 6
1 AM Wed 81 81 S 10 14 4432 4375 0 Blue 5
2 AM Wed 81 81 S 10 14 4432 4375 0 Blue 5
3 AM Wed 81 81 ESE 9 13 4432 4375 0 Blue 5
4 AM Wed 80 80 ESE 9 13 4388 4375 0 Blue 4
5 AM Wed 79 79 ESE 9 13 4344 4375 0 Blue 3
6 AM Wed 80 80 E 9 13 4388 4375 0 Blue 4
7 AM Wed 80 80 E 9 13 4388 4375 0 Blue 4
8 AM Wed 81 81 E 9 13 4432 4375 0 Blue 5
9 AM Wed 82 83 S 9 16 4520 4387 12 Blue 7
10 AM Wed 85 87 S 9 16 5390 4765 390 Blue 11
11 AM Wed 88 91 S 9 16 8663 6061 1686 Blue 15
12 Noon Wed 91 96 SW 12 23 11708 9943 5568 Blue 20
1 PM Wed 92 97 SW 12 23 12382 10902 6527 Blue 21
2 PM Wed 92 97 SW 12 23 12382 10902 6527 Blue 21
3 PM Wed 92 97 WSW 16 31 12382 10902 6527 Blue 21
4 PM Wed 92 96 WSW 16 31 11708 9943 5568 Blue 20
5 PM Wed 93 95 WSW 16 31 11347 9261 4886 Blue 19
6 PM Wed 92 93 SW 16 29 10082 7776 3401 Blue 17
7 PM Wed 90 90 SW 16 29 7886 5378 1003 Blue 14
8 PM Wed 88 88 SW 16 29 6139 4976 601 Blue 12
9 PM Wed 86 86 SW 10 17 5188 4519 144 Blue 10
10 PM Wed 84 84 SW 10 17 4776 4431 56 Blue 8
11 PM Wed 82 82 SW 10 17 4476 4375 0 Blue 6
12 Midnight Thu 81 81 SE 8 11 4432 4375 0 Blue 5
1 AM Thu 80 80 SE 8 11 4388 4375 0 Blue 4
2 AM Thu 80 80 SE 8 11 4388 4375 0 Blue 4
3 AM Thu 79 79 E 8 11 4344 4375 0 Blue 3
4 AM Thu 78 78 E 8 11 4300 4375 0 Blue 2
5 AM Thu 77 77 E 8 11 4257 4375 0 Blue 1
6 AM Thu 76 76 E 8 11 0 4375 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 76 76 E 8 11 0 4375 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 78 78 E 8 11 4300 4375 0 Blue 2
9 AM Thu 80 82 ESE 6 11 4476 4375 0 Blue 6
10 AM Thu 84 88 ESE 6 11 6139 4976 601 Blue 12
11 AM Thu 88 94 ESE 6 11 10987 8541 4166 Blue 18
12 Noon Thu 91 98 SSW 8 13 13738 11257 6882 Blue 22
1 PM Thu 93 101 SSW 8 13 16090 13295 8920 White 25
2 PM Thu 94 102 SSW 8 13 16291 16291 11916 White 25
3 PM Thu 94 101 WSW 11 20 16090 13295 8920 White 25
4 PM Thu 95 100 WSW 11 20 15888 12059 7684 White 24
5 PM Thu 96 100 WSW 11 20 15888 12059 7684 White 24
6 PM Thu 96 98 WSW 13 21 13738 11257 6882 Blue 22
7 PM Thu 95 96 WSW 13 21 11708 9943 5568 Blue 20
8 PM Thu 93 93 WSW 13 21 10082 7776 3401 Blue 17
9 PM Thu 90 90 W 10 16 7886 5378 1003 Blue 14
10 PM Thu 87 87 W 10 16 5390 4765 390 Blue 11
11 PM Thu 84 84 W 10 16 4776 4431 56 Blue 8
12 Midnight Fri 82 82 ENE 6 10 4476 4375 0 Blue 6
1 AM Fri 81 81 ENE 6 10 4432 4375 0 Blue 5
2 AM Fri 80 80 ENE 6 10 4388 4375 0 Blue 4
3 AM Fri 80 80 E 6 11 4388 4375 0 Blue 4
4 AM Fri 79 79 E 6 11 4344 4375 0 Blue 3
5 AM Fri 77 77 E 6 11 4257 4375 0 Blue 1
6 AM Fri 77 77 E 6 11 4257 4375 0 Blue 1
7 AM Fri 78 78 E 6 11 4300 4375 0 Blue 2
8 AM Fri 79 80 E 6 11 4388 4375 0 Blue 4
9 AM Fri 82 84 E 5 9 4776 4431 56 Blue 8
10 AM Fri 86 90 E 5 9 7886 5378 1003 Blue 14
11 AM Fri 91 97 E 5 9 12382 10902 6527 Blue 21
12 Noon Fri 95 103 SW 6 11 16492 16492 12117 White 26
1 PM Fri 97 106 SW 6 11 17091 17091 12716 White 29
2 PM Fri 98 107 SW 6 11 17290 17290 12915 White 30
3 PM Fri 99 107 WSW 11 19 17290 17290 12915 White 30
4 PM Fri 101 107 WSW 11 19 17290 17290 12915 White 30
5 PM Fri 102 106 WSW 11 19 17091 17091 12716 White 29
6 PM Fri 102 104 W 12 19 16692 16692 12317 White 27
7 PM Fri 100 101 W 12 19 16090 13295 8920 White 25
8 PM Fri 97 97 W 12 19 12382 10902 6527 Blue 21
9 PM Fri 94 94 W 10 16 10987 8541 4166 Blue 18
10 PM Fri 91 91 W 10 16 8663 6061 1686 Blue 15
11 PM Fri 88 88 W 10 16 6139 4976 601 Blue 12

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]