Detailed Predictions for: Mollies Nipple
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.1239, -113.298, 4375
LZ Altitude (f): 3320
Sounding

Station:

KSLC

Date/Time:

21 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
1 AM Tue 64 64 NE 14 20 0 4375 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 63 63 NE 14 20 0 4375 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 62 62 ENE 11 16 0 4375 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 61 61 ENE 11 16 0 4375 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 61 61 ENE 11 16 0 4375 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 58 58 ENE 10 14 0 4375 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 59 59 ENE 10 14 0 4375 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 58 58 ENE 10 14 0 4375 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 62 62 ENE 12 18 0 4375 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 67 69 ENE 12 18 7779 7779 3404 White 4
11 AM Tue 75 78 ENE 12 18 9703 9703 5328 White 13
12 Noon Tue 78 83 E 9 13 10758 10758 6383 White 18
1 PM Tue 82 88 E 9 13 11778 11778 7403 White 23
2 PM Tue 84 90 E 9 13 12184 12184 7809 White 25
3 PM Tue 86 91 NW 8 13 12386 12386 8011 White 26
4 PM Tue 87 91 NW 8 13 12386 12386 8011 White 26
5 PM Tue 87 89 NW 8 13 11981 11981 7606 White 24
6 PM Tue 87 87 ESE 6 11 11576 11576 7201 White 22
7 PM Tue 85 85 ESE 6 11 11168 11168 6793 White 20
8 PM Tue 80 80 ESE 6 11 10130 10130 5755 White 15
9 PM Tue 76 76 E 8 13 9280 9280 4905 White 11
10 PM Tue 72 72 E 8 13 8425 8425 4050 White 7
11 PM Tue 69 69 E 8 13 7779 7779 3404 White 4
12 Midnight Wed 68 68 E 11 14 7563 5168 793 White 3
1 AM Wed 68 68 E 11 14 7563 5168 793 White 3
2 AM Wed 65 65 E 11 14 0 4375 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 64 64 E 9 11 0 4375 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 65 65 E 9 11 0 4375 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 65 65 E 9 11 0 4375 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 64 64 E 8 10 0 4375 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 63 63 E 8 10 0 4375 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 62 62 E 8 10 0 4375 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 65 65 SSW 4 6 0 4375 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 71 73 SSW 4 6 8639 8639 4264 White 8
11 AM Wed 77 80 SSW 4 6 10130 10130 5755 White 15
12 Noon Wed 82 87 W 4 6 11576 11576 7201 White 22
1 PM Wed 85 91 W 4 6 12386 12386 8011 White 26
2 PM Wed 88 94 W 4 6 12989 12989 8614 White 29
3 PM Wed 90 95 W 12 17 13190 13190 8815 White 30
4 PM Wed 91 94 W 12 17 12989 12989 8614 White 29
5 PM Wed 91 93 W 12 17 12789 12789 8414 White 28
6 PM Wed 89 89 W 11 18 11981 11981 7606 White 24
7 PM Wed 86 86 W 11 18 11372 11372 6997 White 21
8 PM Wed 81 81 W 11 18 10345 10345 5970 White 16
9 PM Wed 77 77 WSW 5 8 9492 9492 5117 White 12
10 PM Wed 74 74 WSW 5 8 8853 8853 4478 White 9
11 PM Wed 72 72 WSW 5 8 8425 8425 4050 White 7
12 Midnight Thu 71 71 E 6 9 8210 8210 3835 White 6
1 AM Thu 70 70 E 6 9 7994 7994 3619 White 5
2 AM Thu 68 68 E 6 9 7563 5168 793 White 3
3 AM Thu 68 68 E 6 9 7563 5168 793 White 3
4 AM Thu 67 67 E 6 9 0 4375 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 67 67 E 6 9 0 4375 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 66 66 E 6 10 0 4375 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 65 65 E 6 10 0 4375 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 65 65 E 6 10 0 4375 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 66 66 E 6 9 0 4375 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 71 72 E 6 9 8425 8425 4050 White 7
11 AM Thu 76 79 E 6 9 9916 9916 5541 White 14
12 Noon Thu 82 86 SW 4 5 11372 11372 6997 White 21
1 PM Thu 85 89 SW 4 5 11981 11981 7606 White 24
2 PM Thu 88 92 SW 4 5 12588 12588 8213 White 27
3 PM Thu 89 93 WSW 9 14 12789 12789 8414 White 28
4 PM Thu 90 93 WSW 9 14 12789 12789 8414 White 28
5 PM Thu 90 92 WSW 9 14 12588 12588 8213 White 27
6 PM Thu 89 89 W 10 16 11981 11981 7606 White 24
7 PM Thu 86 86 W 10 16 11372 11372 6997 White 21
8 PM Thu 82 82 W 10 16 10552 10552 6177 White 17
9 PM Thu 79 79 N 6 10 9916 9916 5541 White 14
10 PM Thu 75 75 N 6 10 9067 9067 4692 White 10
11 PM Thu 73 73 N 6 10 8639 8639 4264 White 8
12 Midnight Fri 71 71 NE 10 13 8210 8210 3835 White 6
1 AM Fri 69 69 NE 10 13 7779 7779 3404 White 4
2 AM Fri 67 67 NE 10 13 0 4375 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 66 66 NE 9 11 0 4375 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 65 65 NE 9 11 0 4375 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 65 65 NE 9 11 0 4375 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 64 64 NE 8 11 0 4375 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 63 63 NE 8 11 0 4375 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 63 63 NE 8 11 0 4375 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 65 65 ENE 6 11 0 4375 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 70 72 ENE 6 11 8425 8425 4050 White 7
11 AM Fri 76 79 ENE 6 11 9916 9916 5541 White 14
12 Noon Fri 82 87 SW 4 5 11576 11576 7201 White 22
1 PM Fri 85 90 SW 4 5 12184 12184 7809 White 25
2 PM Fri 87 92 SW 4 5 12588 12588 8213 White 27
3 PM Fri 88 93 W 9 14 12789 12789 8414 White 28
4 PM Fri 89 93 W 9 14 12789 12789 8414 White 28
5 PM Fri 90 92 W 9 14 12588 12588 8213 White 27
6 PM Fri 89 89 W 9 13 11981 11981 7606 White 24
7 PM Fri 87 87 W 9 13 11576 11576 7201 White 22
8 PM Fri 83 83 W 9 13 10758 10758 6383 White 18
9 PM Fri 79 79 N 6 9 9916 9916 5541 White 14
10 PM Fri 76 76 N 6 9 9280 9280 4905 White 11
11 PM Fri 73 73 N 6 9 8639 8639 4264 White 8
12 Midnight Sat 70 70 ENE 8 9 7994 7994 3619 White 5
1 AM Sat 69 69 ENE 8 9 7779 7779 3404 White 4
2 AM Sat 68 68 ENE 8 9 7563 5168 793 White 3
3 AM Sat 67 67 ENE 6 9 0 4375 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 66 66 ENE 6 9 0 4375 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 66 66 ENE 6 9 0 4375 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 65 65 ENE 6 10 0 4375 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 63 63 ENE 6 10 0 4375 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 63 63 ENE 6 10 0 4375 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 65 65 E 6 9 0 4375 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 69 71 E 6 9 8210 8210 3835 White 6
11 AM Sat 75 78 E 6 9 9703 9703 5328 White 13
12 Noon Sat 81 86 SW 5 8 11372 11372 6997 White 21
1 PM Sat 85 91 SW 5 8 12386 12386 8011 White 26
2 PM Sat 87 93 SW 5 8 12789 12789 8414 White 28
3 PM Sat 89 94 WSW 9 14 12989 12989 8614 White 29
4 PM Sat 90 93 WSW 9 14 12789 12789 8414 White 28
5 PM Sat 90 92 WSW 9 14 12588 12588 8213 White 27
6 PM Sat 89 89 WSW 11 17 11981 11981 7606 White 24
7 PM Sat 86 86 WSW 11 17 11372 11372 6997 White 21
8 PM Sat 82 82 WSW 11 17 10552 10552 6177 White 17
9 PM Sat 78 78 WSW 6 9 9703 9703 5328 White 13
10 PM Sat 75 75 WSW 6 9 9067 9067 4692 White 10
11 PM Sat 72 72 WSW 6 9 8425 8425 4050 White 7
12 Midnight Sun 71 71 E 5 8 8210 8210 3835 White 6
1 AM Sun 69 69 E 5 8 7779 7779 3404 White 4
2 AM Sun 69 69 E 5 8 7779 7779 3404 White 4
3 AM Sun 68 68 E 5 8 7563 5168 793 White 3
4 AM Sun 67 67 E 5 8 0 4375 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 67 67 E 5 8 0 4375 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 66 66 E 6 9 0 4375 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 65 65 E 6 9 0 4375 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 65 65 E 6 9 0 4375 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 67 67 ESE 5 8 0 4375 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 71 72 ESE 5 8 8425 8425 4050 White 7
11 AM Sun 75 78 ESE 5 8 9703 9703 5328 White 13
12 Noon Sun 80 83 SW 5 8 10758 10758 6383 White 18
1 PM Sun 83 87 SW 5 8 11576 11576 7201 White 22
2 PM Sun 85 89 SW 5 8 11981 11981 7606 White 24
3 PM Sun 87 91 WSW 10 17 12386 12386 8011 White 26
4 PM Sun 88 91 WSW 10 17 12386 12386 8011 White 26
5 PM Sun 88 89 WSW 10 17 11981 11981 7606 White 24
6 PM Sun 87 87 WSW 12 20 11576 11576 7201 White 22
7 PM Sun 84 84 WSW 12 20 10963 10963 6588 White 19
8 PM Sun 80 80 WSW 12 20 10130 10130 5755 White 15
9 PM Sun 77 77 SW 5 9 9492 9492 5117 White 12
10 PM Sun 74 74 SW 5 9 8853 8853 4478 White 9
11 PM Sun 72 72 SW 5 9 8425 8425 4050 White 7

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]