Detailed Predictions for: Mollies Nipple
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.1239, -113.298, 4375
LZ Altitude (f): 3320
Sounding

Station:

 KSLC

Date/Time UTC:

 260911/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Fri 84 84 SSE 6 11 4758 4501 126 Blue 6
1 AM Fri 83 83 SSE 6 11 4673 4417 42 Blue 5
2 AM Fri 82 82 SSE 6 11 4589 4375 0 Blue 4
3 AM Fri 81 81 SSE 6 10 4504 4375 0 Blue 3
4 AM Fri 80 80 SSE 6 10 4420 4375 0 Blue 2
5 AM Fri 79 79 SSE 6 10 4335 4375 0 Blue 1
6 AM Fri 79 79 SE 6 9 4335 4375 0 Blue 1
7 AM Fri 77 77 SE 6 9 4229 4375 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 77 77 SE 6 9 4229 4375 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 79 79 E 6 11 4335 4375 0 Blue 1
10 AM Fri 84 85 E 6 11 4842 4586 211 Blue 7
11 AM Fri 88 91 E 6 11 11634 6139 1764 Blue 13
12 Noon Fri 91 96 W 9 20 16821 13554 9179 White 18
1 PM Fri 93 99 W 9 20 17417 16601 12226 White 21
2 PM Fri 95 101 W 9 20 17812 17613 13238 White 23
3 PM Fri 96 101 WSW 11 25 17812 17613 13238 White 23
4 PM Fri 96 100 WSW 11 25 17614 17098 12723 White 22
5 PM Fri 98 100 WSW 11 25 17614 17098 12723 White 22
6 PM Fri 96 97 WSW 11 25 17020 14701 10326 White 19
7 PM Fri 96 96 WSW 11 25 16821 13554 9179 White 18
8 PM Fri 93 93 WSW 11 25 13900 10289 5914 Blue 15
9 PM Fri 89 89 S 11 20 8232 4892 517 Blue 11
10 PM Fri 87 87 S 11 20 5564 4754 379 Blue 9
11 PM Fri 85 85 S 11 20 4842 4586 211 Blue 7
12 Midnight Sat 84 84 SSE 12 23 4758 4501 126 Blue 6
1 AM Sat 83 83 SSE 12 23 4673 4417 42 Blue 5
2 AM Sat 82 82 SSE 12 23 4589 4375 0 Blue 4
3 AM Sat 80 80 SSE 11 18 4420 4375 0 Blue 2
4 AM Sat 79 79 SSE 11 18 4335 4375 0 Blue 1
5 AM Sat 78 78 SSE 11 18 4251 4375 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 77 77 SSE 11 18 4229 4375 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 76 76 SSE 11 18 4229 4375 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 75 75 SSE 11 18 4229 4375 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 78 78 ESE 10 17 4251 4375 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 83 85 ESE 10 17 4842 4586 211 Blue 7
11 AM Sat 87 91 ESE 10 17 11634 6139 1764 Blue 13
12 Noon Sat 90 95 WSW 11 24 16315 12435 8060 Blue 17
1 PM Sat 92 98 WSW 11 24 17218 16016 11641 White 20
2 PM Sat 94 100 WSW 11 24 17614 17098 12723 White 22
3 PM Sat 94 99 WSW 14 29 17417 16601 12226 White 21
4 PM Sat 95 99 WSW 14 29 17417 16601 12226 White 21
5 PM Sat 96 98 WSW 14 29 17218 16016 11641 White 20
6 PM Sat 94 95 SW 16 29 16315 12435 8060 Blue 17
7 PM Sat 93 93 SW 16 29 13900 10289 5914 Blue 15
8 PM Sat 90 90 SW 16 29 10573 5523 1148 Blue 12
9 PM Sat 87 87 SSW 14 29 5564 4754 379 Blue 9
10 PM Sat 85 85 SSW 14 29 4842 4586 211 Blue 7
11 PM Sat 84 84 SSW 14 29 4758 4501 126 Blue 6
12 Midnight Sun 83 83 SSE 16 37 4673 4417 42 Blue 5
1 AM Sun 82 82 SSE 16 37 4589 4375 0 Blue 4
2 AM Sun 80 80 SSE 16 37 4420 4375 0 Blue 2
3 AM Sun 79 79 SE 12 23 4335 4375 0 Blue 1
4 AM Sun 77 77 SE 12 23 4229 4375 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 76 76 SE 12 23 4229 4375 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 75 75 ESE 10 16 4229 4375 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 75 75 ESE 10 16 4229 4375 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 75 75 ESE 10 16 4229 4375 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 77 77 SE 11 20 4229 4375 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 80 82 SE 11 20 4589 4375 0 Blue 4
11 AM Sun 84 87 SE 11 20 5564 4754 379 Blue 9
12 Noon Sun 88 93 SW 13 27 13900 10289 5914 Blue 15
1 PM Sun 90 96 SW 13 27 16821 13554 9179 White 18
2 PM Sun 91 97 SW 13 27 17020 14701 10326 White 19
3 PM Sun 91 96 SW 16 31 16821 13554 9179 White 18
4 PM Sun 92 96 SW 16 31 16821 13554 9179 White 18
5 PM Sun 92 94 SW 16 31 15198 11378 7003 Blue 16
6 PM Sun 92 93 SW 16 31 13900 10289 5914 Blue 15
7 PM Sun 90 90 SW 16 31 10573 5523 1148 Blue 12
8 PM Sun 87 87 SW 16 31 5564 4754 379 Blue 9
9 PM Sun 84 84 SW 10 21 4758 4501 126 Blue 6
10 PM Sun 82 82 SW 10 21 4589 4375 0 Blue 4
11 PM Sun 81 81 SW 10 21 4504 4375 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Mon 79 79 SSE 9 14 4335 4375 0 Blue 1
1 AM Mon 77 77 SSE 9 14 4229 4375 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 76 76 SSE 9 14 4229 4375 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 74 74 E 10 14 4229 4375 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 73 73 E 10 14 4229 4375 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 73 73 E 10 14 4229 4375 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 72 72 E 9 12 4228 4375 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 72 72 E 9 12 4228 4375 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 73 73 E 9 12 4229 4375 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 74 75 E 9 14 4229 4375 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 78 80 E 9 14 4420 4375 0 Blue 2
11 AM Mon 83 87 E 9 14 5564 4754 379 Blue 9
12 Noon Mon 87 92 SW 6 13 12796 7900 3525 Blue 14
1 PM Mon 89 95 SW 6 13 16315 12435 8060 Blue 17
2 PM Mon 90 96 SW 6 13 16821 13554 9179 White 18
3 PM Mon 90 95 WSW 10 24 16315 12435 8060 Blue 17
4 PM Mon 90 94 WSW 10 24 15198 11378 7003 Blue 16
5 PM Mon 90 92 WSW 10 24 12796 7900 3525 Blue 14
6 PM Mon 89 90 WSW 9 23 10573 5523 1148 Blue 12
7 PM Mon 87 87 WSW 9 23 5564 4754 379 Blue 9
8 PM Mon 84 84 WSW 9 23 4758 4501 126 Blue 6
9 PM Mon 82 82 WSW 5 10 4589 4375 0 Blue 4
10 PM Mon 80 80 WSW 5 10 4420 4375 0 Blue 2
11 PM Mon 78 78 WSW 5 10 4251 4375 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 77 77 ESE 10 16 4229 4375 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 75 75 ESE 10 16 4229 4375 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 74 74 ESE 10 16 4229 4375 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 73 73 ESE 13 20 4229 4375 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 72 72 ESE 13 20 4228 4375 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 71 71 ESE 13 20 4228 4375 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 71 71 E 16 21 4228 4375 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 71 71 E 16 21 4228 4375 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 71 71 E 16 21 4228 4375 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 73 73 ESE 13 20 4229 4375 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 77 79 ESE 13 20 4335 4375 0 Blue 1
11 AM Tue 82 85 ESE 13 20 4842 4586 211 Blue 7
12 Noon Tue 86 91 SSW 9 18 11634 6139 1764 Blue 13
1 PM Tue 88 94 SSW 9 18 15198 11378 7003 Blue 16
2 PM Tue 90 96 SSW 9 18 16821 13554 9179 White 18
3 PM Tue 90 95 WSW 11 24 16315 12435 8060 Blue 17
4 PM Tue 90 94 WSW 11 24 15198 11378 7003 Blue 16
5 PM Tue 89 91 WSW 11 24 11634 6139 1764 Blue 13
6 PM Tue 88 89 WSW 11 25 8232 4892 517 Blue 11
7 PM Tue 86 86 WSW 11 25 4920 4670 295 Blue 8
8 PM Tue 83 83 WSW 11 25 4673 4417 42 Blue 5
9 PM Tue 80 80 WSW 6 12 4420 4375 0 Blue 2
10 PM Tue 78 78 WSW 6 12 4251 4375 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 77 77 WSW 6 12 4229 4375 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 76 76 ESE 9 13 4229 4375 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 75 75 ESE 9 13 4229 4375 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 73 73 ESE 9 13 4229 4375 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 72 72 ESE 12 19 4228 4375 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 71 71 ESE 12 19 4228 4375 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 70 70 ESE 12 19 4228 4375 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 70 70 E 12 17 4228 4375 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 70 70 E 12 17 4228 4375 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 72 72 E 12 17 4228 4375 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 74 74 ESE 8 10 4229 4375 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 77 79 ESE 8 10 4335 4375 0 Blue 1
11 AM Wed 82 85 ESE 8 10 4842 4586 211 Blue 7
12 Noon Wed 85 90 SSW 5 11 10573 5523 1148 Blue 12
1 PM Wed 87 93 SSW 5 11 13900 10289 5914 Blue 15
2 PM Wed 88 94 SSW 5 11 15198 11378 7003 Blue 16
3 PM Wed 89 94 SW 8 19 15198 11378 7003 Blue 16
4 PM Wed 89 93 SW 8 19 13900 10289 5914 Blue 15
5 PM Wed 89 91 SW 8 19 11634 6139 1764 Blue 13
6 PM Wed 88 89 WSW 8 18 8232 4892 517 Blue 11
7 PM Wed 86 86 WSW 8 18 4920 4670 295 Blue 8
8 PM Wed 84 84 WSW 8 18 4758 4501 126 Blue 6
9 PM Wed 81 81 W 5 9 4504 4375 0 Blue 3
10 PM Wed 79 79 W 5 9 4335 4375 0 Blue 1

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]