Detailed Predictions for: Mollies Nipple
Launch Altitude (f): 4375
LZ Altitude (f): 3320
Sounding

Station:

KSLC

Date/Time:

20 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sun 47 47 N 15 4686 4375 0 Blue 1
7 AM Sun 48 48 N 15 5913 4375 0 White 2
8 AM Sun 46 46 N 15 0 4375 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 47 47 N 10 4686 4375 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sun 51 52 N 10 6771 6771 2396 White 6
11 AM Sun 56 58 N 10 8048 8048 3673 White 12
12 Noon Sun 59 62 N 17 8894 8894 4519 White 16
1 PM Sun 61 65 N 17 9524 9524 5149 White 19
2 PM Sun 62 66 N 17 9734 9734 5359 White 20
3 PM Sun 63 66 NE 15 9734 9734 5359 White 20
4 PM Sun 64 66 NE 15 9734 9734 5359 White 20
5 PM Sun 64 65 NE 15 9524 9524 5149 White 19
6 PM Sun 63 63 NE 13 9104 9104 4729 White 17
7 PM Sun 57 57 NE 13 7836 7836 3461 White 11
8 PM Sun 54 54 NE 13 7198 7198 2823 White 8
9 PM Sun 52 52 E 7 6771 6771 2396 White 6
10 PM Sun 51 51 E 7 6557 6557 2182 White 5
11 PM Sun 51 51 E 7 6557 6557 2182 White 5
12 Midnight Mon 50 50 SE 2 6342 4660 285 White 4
1 AM Mon 50 50 SE 2 6342 4660 285 White 4
2 AM Mon 49 49 SE 2 6127 4375 0 White 3
3 AM Mon 46 46 SE 2 0 4375 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 46 46 SE 2 0 4375 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 45 45 SE 2 0 4375 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 44 44 S 8 0 4375 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 44 44 S 8 0 4375 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 43 43 S 8 0 4375 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 45 45 S 2 0 4375 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 51 52 S 2 6771 6771 2396 White 6
11 AM Mon 57 59 S 2 8260 8260 3885 White 13
12 Noon Mon 62 65 W 5 9524 9524 5149 White 19
1 PM Mon 65 68 W 5 10143 10143 5768 White 22
2 PM Mon 68 71 W 5 10745 10745 6370 White 25
3 PM Mon 71 74 W 5 11336 11336 6961 White 28
4 PM Mon 72 74 W 5 11336 11336 6961 White 28
5 PM Mon 73 74 W 5 11336 11336 6961 White 28
6 PM Mon 72 72 NW 8 10942 10942 6567 White 26
7 PM Mon 68 68 NW 8 10143 10143 5768 White 22
8 PM Mon 64 64 NW 8 9314 9314 4939 White 18
9 PM Mon 60 60 NW 8 8471 8471 4096 White 14
10 PM Mon 58 58 NW 8 8048 8048 3673 White 12
11 PM Mon 57 57 NW 8 7836 7836 3461 White 11
12 Midnight Tue 57 57 NE 8 7836 7836 3461 White 11
1 AM Tue 56 56 NE 8 7624 7624 3249 White 10
2 AM Tue 55 55 NE 8 7411 7411 3036 White 9
3 AM Tue 53 53 NE 8 6984 6984 2609 White 7
4 AM Tue 52 52 NE 8 6771 6771 2396 White 6
5 AM Tue 51 51 NE 8 6557 6557 2182 White 5
6 AM Tue 49 49 NE 7 6127 4375 0 White 3
7 AM Tue 47 47 NE 7 4686 4375 0 Blue 1
8 AM Tue 47 47 NE 7 4686 4375 0 Blue 1
9 AM Tue 49 49 NE 7 6127 4375 0 White 3
10 AM Tue 54 55 NE 7 7411 7411 3036 White 9
11 AM Tue 61 63 NE 7 9104 9104 4729 White 17
12 Noon Tue 67 70 SE 3 10545 10545 6170 White 24
1 PM Tue 70 74 SE 3 11336 11336 6961 White 28
2 PM Tue 73 77 SE 3 11926 11926 7551 White 31
3 PM Tue 74 77 SE 3 11926 11926 7551 White 31
4 PM Tue 75 77 SE 3 11926 11926 7551 White 31
5 PM Tue 76 77 SE 3 11926 11926 7551 White 31
6 PM Tue 75 75 W 5 11533 11533 7158 White 29
7 PM Tue 72 72 W 5 10942 10942 6567 White 26
8 PM Tue 67 67 W 5 9941 9941 5566 White 21
9 PM Tue 63 63 W 5 9104 9104 4729 White 17
10 PM Tue 61 61 W 5 8683 8683 4308 White 15
11 PM Tue 59 59 W 5 8260 8260 3885 White 13
12 Midnight Wed 59 59 NE 6 8260 8260 3885 White 13
1 AM Wed 57 57 NE 6 7836 7836 3461 White 11
2 AM Wed 56 56 NE 6 7624 7624 3249 White 10
3 AM Wed 54 54 NE 6 7198 7198 2823 White 8
4 AM Wed 53 53 NE 6 6984 6984 2609 White 7
5 AM Wed 52 52 NE 6 6771 6771 2396 White 6
6 AM Wed 51 51 NE 6 6557 6557 2182 White 5
7 AM Wed 49 49 NE 6 6127 4375 0 White 3
8 AM Wed 49 49 NE 6 6127 4375 0 White 3
9 AM Wed 51 51 NE 6 6557 6557 2182 White 5
10 AM Wed 56 57 NE 6 7836 7836 3461 White 11
11 AM Wed 63 65 NE 6 9524 9524 5149 White 19
12 Noon Wed 70 73 NW 7 11139 11139 6764 White 27
1 PM Wed 73 77 NW 7 11926 11926 7551 White 31
2 PM Wed 75 79 NW 7 12317 12317 7942 White 33
3 PM Wed 75 78 NW 7 12123 12123 7748 White 32
4 PM Wed 76 78 NW 7 12123 12123 7748 White 32
5 PM Wed 76 77 NW 7 11926 11926 7551 White 31
6 PM Wed 74 74 N 10 11336 11336 6961 White 28
7 PM Wed 72 72 N 10 10942 10942 6567 White 26
8 PM Wed 69 69 N 10 10344 10344 5969 White 23
9 PM Wed 65 65 N 10 9524 9524 5149 White 19
10 PM Wed 61 61 N 10 8683 8683 4308 White 15
11 PM Wed 58 58 N 10 8048 8048 3673 White 12
12 Midnight Thu 54 54 N 10 7198 7198 2823 White 8
1 AM Thu 51 51 N 10 6557 6557 2182 White 5
2 AM Thu 49 49 N 10 6127 4375 0 White 3
3 AM Thu 47 47 N 10 4686 4375 0 Blue 1
4 AM Thu 45 45 N 10 0 4375 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 45 45 N 10 0 4375 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 45 45 NE 9 0 4375 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 46 46 NE 9 0 4375 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 48 48 NE 9 5913 4375 0 White 2
9 AM Thu 51 51 NE 9 6557 6557 2182 White 5
10 AM Thu 53 54 NE 9 7198 7198 2823 White 8
11 AM Thu 56 58 NE 9 8048 8048 3673 White 12
12 Noon Thu 59 62 N 7 8894 8894 4519 White 16
1 PM Thu 61 64 N 7 9314 9314 4939 White 18
2 PM Thu 63 66 N 7 9734 9734 5359 White 20
3 PM Thu 65 68 N 7 10143 10143 5768 White 22
4 PM Thu 66 68 N 7 10143 10143 5768 White 22
5 PM Thu 66 67 N 7 9941 9941 5566 White 21
6 PM Thu 65 65 N 9 9524 9524 5149 White 19
7 PM Thu 63 63 N 9 9104 9104 4729 White 17
8 PM Thu 61 61 N 9 8683 8683 4308 White 15
9 PM Thu 58 58 N 9 8048 8048 3673 White 12
10 PM Thu 54 54 N 9 7198 7198 2823 White 8
11 PM Thu 51 51 N 9 6557 6557 2182 White 5
12 Midnight Fri 48 48 NE 10 5913 4375 0 White 2
1 AM Fri 45 45 NE 10 0 4375 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 43 43 NE 10 0 4375 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 42 42 NE 10 0 4375 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 41 41 NE 10 0 4375 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 41 41 NE 10 0 4375 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 42 42 NE 7 0 4375 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 44 44 NE 7 0 4375 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 46 46 NE 7 0 4375 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 49 49 NE 7 6127 4375 0 White 3
10 AM Fri 53 54 NE 7 7198 7198 2823 White 8
11 AM Fri 56 58 NE 7 8048 8048 3673 White 12
12 Noon Fri 60 63 E 3 9104 9104 4729 White 17
1 PM Fri 63 67 E 3 9941 9941 5566 White 21
2 PM Fri 66 70 E 3 10545 10545 6170 White 24
3 PM Fri 68 71 E 3 10745 10745 6370 White 25
4 PM Fri 69 71 E 3 10745 10745 6370 White 25
5 PM Fri 70 71 E 3 10745 10745 6370 White 25
6 PM Fri 70 70 W 3 10545 10545 6170 White 24
7 PM Fri 68 68 W 3 10143 10143 5768 White 22
8 PM Fri 65 65 W 3 9524 9524 5149 White 19
9 PM Fri 62 62 W 3 8894 8894 4519 White 16
10 PM Fri 59 59 W 3 8260 8260 3885 White 13
11 PM Fri 55 55 W 3 7411 7411 3036 White 9
12 Midnight Sat 52 52 NE 5 6771 6771 2396 White 6
1 AM Sat 49 49 NE 5 6127 4375 0 White 3
2 AM Sat 46 46 NE 5 0 4375 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 45 45 NE 5 0 4375 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 44 44 NE 5 0 4375 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 44 44 NE 5 0 4375 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]