Detailed Predictions for: Mollies Nipple
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.1239, -113.298, 4375
LZ Altitude (f): 3320
Sounding

Station:

KSLC

Date/Time:

19 JUN 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 72 72 NE 8 12 7517 6253 1878 Blue 9
1 AM Wed 72 72 NE 8 12 7517 6253 1878 Blue 9
2 AM Wed 71 71 NE 8 12 7193 5466 1091 Blue 8
3 AM Wed 68 68 ENE 5 10 5473 5143 768 Blue 5
4 AM Wed 66 66 ENE 5 10 5257 4375 0 Blue 3
5 AM Wed 66 66 ENE 5 10 5257 4375 0 Blue 3
6 AM Wed 65 65 E 5 10 5149 4375 0 Blue 2
7 AM Wed 65 65 E 5 10 5149 4375 0 Blue 2
8 AM Wed 68 69 E 5 10 6339 5251 876 Blue 6
9 AM Wed 72 74 NNE 5 11 8046 7153 2778 Blue 11
10 AM Wed 79 83 NNE 5 11 11947 11947 7572 White 20
11 AM Wed 82 88 NNE 5 11 12972 12972 8597 White 25
12 Noon Wed 87 95 W 10 19 14366 14366 9991 White 32
1 PM Wed 90 99 W 10 19 15151 15151 10776 White 36
2 PM Wed 93 102 W 10 19 15737 15737 11362 White 39
3 PM Wed 94 102 W 11 21 15737 15737 11362 White 39
4 PM Wed 94 100 W 11 21 15347 15347 10972 White 37
5 PM Wed 95 99 W 11 21 15151 15151 10776 White 36
6 PM Wed 94 96 W 11 23 14563 14563 10188 White 33
7 PM Wed 93 94 W 11 23 14170 14170 9795 White 31
8 PM Wed 92 92 W 11 23 13774 13774 9399 White 29
9 PM Wed 86 86 WSW 9 14 12563 12563 8188 White 23
10 PM Wed 82 82 WSW 9 14 11741 11741 7366 White 19
11 PM Wed 80 80 WSW 9 14 11329 11215 6840 White 17
12 Midnight Thu 77 77 SE 5 10 10701 8006 3631 White 14
1 AM Thu 77 77 SE 5 10 10701 8006 3631 White 14
2 AM Thu 76 76 SE 5 10 10490 7740 3365 White 13
3 AM Thu 74 74 SE 6 11 8046 7153 2778 Blue 11
4 AM Thu 72 72 SE 6 11 7517 6253 1878 Blue 9
5 AM Thu 71 71 SE 6 11 7193 5466 1091 Blue 8
6 AM Thu 71 71 ESE 6 11 7193 5466 1091 Blue 8
7 AM Thu 69 69 ESE 6 11 6339 5251 876 Blue 6
8 AM Thu 73 74 ESE 6 11 8046 7153 2778 Blue 11
9 AM Thu 77 79 ESE 5 11 11120 10357 5982 White 16
10 AM Thu 84 88 ESE 5 11 12972 12972 8597 White 25
11 AM Thu 89 95 ESE 5 11 14366 14366 9991 White 32
12 Noon Thu 93 101 S 9 17 15542 15542 11167 White 38
1 PM Thu 96 105 S 9 17 16320 16320 11945 White 42
2 PM Thu 99 108 S 9 17 16895 16895 12520 White 45
3 PM Thu 100 108 SW 11 24 16895 16895 12520 White 45
4 PM Thu 101 107 SW 11 24 16705 16705 12330 White 44
5 PM Thu 100 104 SW 11 24 16126 16126 11751 White 41
6 PM Thu 99 101 WSW 12 23 15542 15542 11167 White 38
7 PM Thu 97 98 WSW 12 23 14956 14956 10581 White 35
8 PM Thu 93 93 WSW 12 23 13972 13972 9597 White 30
9 PM Thu 90 90 W 9 14 13376 13376 9001 White 27
10 PM Thu 87 87 W 9 14 12767 12767 8392 White 24
11 PM Thu 84 84 W 9 14 12153 12153 7778 White 21
12 Midnight Fri 82 82 E 6 10 11741 11741 7366 White 19
1 AM Fri 80 80 E 6 10 11329 11215 6840 White 17
2 AM Fri 78 78 E 6 10 10910 9084 4709 White 15
3 AM Fri 77 77 E 9 13 10701 8006 3631 White 14
4 AM Fri 75 75 E 9 13 9344 7479 3104 Blue 12
5 AM Fri 74 74 E 9 13 8046 7153 2778 Blue 11
6 AM Fri 74 74 E 10 16 8046 7153 2778 Blue 11
7 AM Fri 75 75 E 10 16 9344 7479 3104 Blue 12
8 AM Fri 78 78 E 10 16 10910 9084 4709 White 15
9 AM Fri 81 82 ESE 10 17 11741 11741 7366 White 19
10 AM Fri 85 88 ESE 10 17 12972 12972 8597 White 25
11 AM Fri 89 93 ESE 10 17 13972 13972 9597 White 30
12 Noon Fri 93 97 SSE 10 20 14759 14759 10384 White 34
1 PM Fri 95 99 SSE 10 20 15151 15151 10776 White 36
2 PM Fri 96 100 SSE 10 20 15347 15347 10972 White 37
3 PM Fri 96 100 S 11 21 15347 15347 10972 White 37
4 PM Fri 96 99 S 11 21 15151 15151 10776 White 36
5 PM Fri 95 97 S 11 21 14759 14759 10384 White 34
6 PM Fri 94 96 SSW 10 20 14563 14563 10188 White 33
7 PM Fri 93 93 SSW 10 20 13972 13972 9597 White 30
8 PM Fri 91 91 SSW 10 20 13576 13576 9201 White 28
9 PM Fri 89 89 E 9 14 13175 13175 8800 White 26
10 PM Fri 87 87 E 9 14 12767 12767 8392 White 24
11 PM Fri 84 84 E 9 14 12153 12153 7778 White 21
12 Midnight Sat 82 82 E 9 13 11741 11741 7366 White 19
1 AM Sat 80 80 E 9 13 11329 11215 6840 White 17
2 AM Sat 79 79 E 9 13 11120 10357 5982 White 16
3 AM Sat 78 78 E 8 12 10910 9084 4709 White 15
4 AM Sat 77 77 E 8 12 10701 8006 3631 White 14
5 AM Sat 76 76 E 8 12 10490 7740 3365 White 13
6 AM Sat 75 75 E 8 11 9344 7479 3104 Blue 12
7 AM Sat 76 76 E 8 11 10490 7740 3365 White 13
8 AM Sat 78 79 E 8 11 11120 10357 5982 White 16
9 AM Sat 81 83 ESE 6 11 11947 11947 7572 White 20
10 AM Sat 85 89 ESE 6 11 13175 13175 8800 White 26
11 AM Sat 90 96 ESE 6 11 14563 14563 10188 White 33
12 Noon Sat 94 102 SSW 8 14 15737 15737 11362 White 39
1 PM Sat 97 105 SSW 8 14 16320 16320 11945 White 42
2 PM Sat 99 108 SSW 8 14 16895 16895 12520 White 45
3 PM Sat 100 107 WSW 10 18 16705 16705 12330 White 44
4 PM Sat 102 108 WSW 10 18 16895 16895 12520 White 45
5 PM Sat 102 106 WSW 10 18 16515 16515 12140 White 43
6 PM Sat 101 103 WSW 10 18 15932 15932 11557 White 40
7 PM Sat 99 99 WSW 10 18 15151 15151 10776 White 36
8 PM Sat 97 97 WSW 10 18 14759 14759 10384 White 34
9 PM Sat 94 94 WSW 8 13 14170 14170 9795 White 31
10 PM Sat 92 92 WSW 8 13 13774 13774 9399 White 29
11 PM Sat 90 90 WSW 8 13 13376 13376 9001 White 27
12 Midnight Sun 88 88 E 5 10 12972 12972 8597 White 25
1 AM Sun 86 86 E 5 10 12563 12563 8188 White 23
2 AM Sun 85 85 E 5 10 12358 12358 7983 White 22
3 AM Sun 83 83 E 5 9 11947 11947 7572 White 20
4 AM Sun 81 81 E 5 9 11535 11535 7160 White 18
5 AM Sun 80 80 E 5 9 11329 11215 6840 White 17
6 AM Sun 80 80 E 5 8 11329 11215 6840 White 17
7 AM Sun 80 80 E 5 8 11329 11215 6840 White 17
8 AM Sun 82 82 E 5 8 11741 11741 7366 White 19
9 AM Sun 85 87 ESE 5 9 12767 12767 8392 White 24
10 AM Sun 89 93 ESE 5 9 13972 13972 9597 White 30
11 AM Sun 93 99 ESE 5 9 15151 15151 10776 White 36
12 Noon Sun 97 103 WSW 6 14 15932 15932 11557 White 40
1 PM Sun 99 106 WSW 6 14 16515 16515 12140 White 43
2 PM Sun 101 108 WSW 6 14 16895 16895 12520 White 45
3 PM Sun 101 107 WSW 10 19 16705 16705 12330 White 44
4 PM Sun 102 107 WSW 10 19 16705 16705 12330 White 44
5 PM Sun 103 106 WSW 10 19 16515 16515 12140 White 43
6 PM Sun 102 104 W 10 19 16126 16126 11751 White 41
7 PM Sun 101 102 W 10 19 15737 15737 11362 White 39
8 PM Sun 99 99 W 10 19 15151 15151 10776 White 36
9 PM Sun 96 96 WSW 9 16 14563 14563 10188 White 33
10 PM Sun 93 93 WSW 9 16 13972 13972 9597 White 30
11 PM Sun 90 90 WSW 9 16 13376 13376 9001 White 27
12 Midnight Mon 88 88 ESE 6 11 12972 12972 8597 White 25
1 AM Mon 86 86 ESE 6 11 12563 12563 8188 White 23
2 AM Mon 85 85 ESE 6 11 12358 12358 7983 White 22
3 AM Mon 84 84 E 5 9 12153 12153 7778 White 21
4 AM Mon 83 83 E 5 9 11947 11947 7572 White 20
5 AM Mon 82 82 E 5 9 11741 11741 7366 White 19
6 AM Mon 81 81 E 5 8 11535 11535 7160 White 18
7 AM Mon 82 82 E 5 8 11741 11741 7366 White 19
8 AM Mon 84 85 E 5 8 12358 12358 7983 White 22
9 AM Mon 87 89 SSE 5 9 13175 13175 8800 White 26
10 AM Mon 91 95 SSE 5 9 14366 14366 9991 White 32
11 AM Mon 95 101 SSE 5 9 15542 15542 11167 White 38
12 Noon Mon 99 105 WSW 8 17 16320 16320 11945 White 42
1 PM Mon 101 108 WSW 8 17 16895 16895 12520 White 45
2 PM Mon 103 110 WSW 8 17 17272 17272 12897 White 47
3 PM Mon 104 110 WSW 11 23 17272 17272 12897 White 47
4 PM Mon 105 110 WSW 11 23 17272 17272 12897 White 47
5 PM Mon 105 108 WSW 11 23 16895 16895 12520 White 45
6 PM Mon 105 107 WSW 12 23 16705 16705 12330 White 44
7 PM Mon 103 104 WSW 12 23 16126 16126 11751 White 41
8 PM Mon 100 100 WSW 12 23 15347 15347 10972 White 37
9 PM Mon 97 97 WSW 10 17 14759 14759 10384 White 34
10 PM Mon 94 94 WSW 10 17 14170 14170 9795 White 31

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]