Detailed Predictions for: Pt Of The Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 40.4715, -111.8883, 5200
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

 KSLC

Date/Time UTC:

 260911/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Fri 65 65 ESE 5 10 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 65 65 ESE 5 10 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 65 65 ESE 5 10 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 65 65 SE 6 11 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 65 65 SE 6 11 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 63 63 SE 6 11 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 63 63 ESE 8 12 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 62 62 ESE 8 12 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 61 61 ESE 8 12 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 63 63 SSE 8 13 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 68 69 SSE 8 13 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 72 75 SSE 8 13 5385 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 76 80 SSE 8 14 12866 7718 2518 Blue 4
1 PM Fri 80 84 SSE 8 14 14640 13732 8532 White 8
2 PM Fri 82 86 SSE 8 14 15063 15063 9863 White 10
3 PM Fri 82 86 WNW 8 17 15063 15063 9863 White 10
4 PM Fri 83 86 WNW 8 17 15063 15063 9863 White 10
5 PM Fri 81 82 WNW 8 17 14214 11434 6234 White 6
6 PM Fri 80 81 W 8 18 14000 10286 5086 White 5
7 PM Fri 78 78 W 8 18 10503 5389 189 Blue 2
8 PM Fri 72 72 W 8 18 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 69 69 SE 4 9 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 68 68 SE 4 9 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 67 67 SE 4 9 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 67 67 ESE 5 10 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 65 65 ESE 5 10 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 65 65 ESE 5 10 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 64 64 SE 8 12 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 63 63 SE 8 12 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 62 62 SE 8 12 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 61 61 SSE 11 17 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 61 61 SSE 11 17 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 62 62 SSE 11 17 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 64 64 SSE 13 21 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 69 71 SSE 13 21 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 74 77 SSE 13 21 7856 5200 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sat 79 83 SSE 14 25 14426 12575 7375 White 7
1 PM Sat 83 88 SSE 14 25 15486 15486 10286 White 12
2 PM Sat 86 91 SSE 14 25 16118 16118 10918 White 15
3 PM Sat 87 90 SSE 17 28 15908 15908 10708 White 14
4 PM Sat 87 89 SSE 17 28 15697 15697 10497 White 13
5 PM Sat 88 89 SSE 17 28 15697 15697 10497 White 13
6 PM Sat 86 86 S 16 29 15063 15063 9863 White 10
7 PM Sat 84 84 S 16 29 14640 13732 8532 White 8
8 PM Sat 81 81 S 16 29 14000 10286 5086 White 5
9 PM Sat 77 77 S 25 40 7856 5200 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sat 76 76 S 25 40 6040 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 75 75 S 25 40 5385 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 75 75 S 26 41 5385 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 73 73 S 26 41 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 71 71 S 26 41 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 68 68 SSE 25 37 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 66 66 SSE 25 37 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 63 63 SSE 25 37 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 62 62 SSE 21 34 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 61 61 SSE 21 34 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 61 61 SSE 21 34 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 62 62 S 19 31 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 64 66 S 19 31 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 67 70 S 19 31 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 70 74 SW 19 29 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 72 76 SW 19 29 6040 5200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 74 78 SW 19 29 10503 5389 189 Blue 2
3 PM Sun 75 79 W 17 27 11631 6031 831 Blue 3
4 PM Sun 74 77 W 17 27 7856 5200 0 Blue 1
5 PM Sun 72 73 W 17 27 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 70 70 NW 16 26 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 67 67 NW 16 26 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 65 65 NW 16 26 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 62 62 NNW 16 26 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 60 60 NNW 16 26 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 59 59 NNW 16 26 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 58 58 NNW 12 25 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 56 56 NNW 12 25 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 54 54 NNW 12 25 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 52 52 NNW 11 20 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 51 51 NNW 11 20 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 50 50 NNW 11 20 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 49 49 N 9 16 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 49 49 N 9 16 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 50 50 N 9 16 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 51 52 N 6 11 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 55 57 N 6 11 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 60 63 N 6 11 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 64 69 NNW 8 12 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 67 73 NNW 8 12 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 69 75 NNW 8 12 5385 5200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 70 74 NNW 6 14 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 69 72 NNW 6 14 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 67 69 NNW 6 14 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 66 66 NNW 8 14 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 63 63 NNW 8 14 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 60 60 NNW 8 14 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 58 58 NNW 9 14 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 57 57 NNW 9 14 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 56 56 NNW 9 14 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 56 56 N 4 9 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 55 55 N 4 9 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 55 55 N 4 9 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 54 54 E 3 6 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 53 53 E 3 6 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 53 53 E 3 6 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 53 53 SE 5 11 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 53 53 SE 5 11 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 55 55 SE 5 11 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 57 57 SSE 8 13 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 61 62 SSE 8 13 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 66 69 SSE 8 13 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 71 75 S 13 24 5385 5200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 74 79 S 13 24 11631 6031 831 Blue 3
2 PM Tue 77 82 S 13 24 14214 11434 6234 White 6
3 PM Tue 78 82 SSW 12 24 14214 11434 6234 White 6
4 PM Tue 78 81 SSW 12 24 14000 10286 5086 White 5
5 PM Tue 76 78 SSW 12 24 10503 5389 189 Blue 2
6 PM Tue 74 74 WSW 8 17 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 70 70 WSW 8 17 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 66 66 WSW 8 17 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 63 63 NNE 5 11 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 62 62 NNE 5 11 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 61 61 NNE 5 11 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 61 61 SE 13 21 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 61 61 SE 13 21 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 60 60 SE 13 21 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 60 60 SSE 14 24 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 59 59 SSE 14 24 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 58 58 SSE 14 24 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 57 57 SSE 14 24 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 57 57 SSE 14 24 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 57 57 SSE 14 24 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 59 59 SSE 13 23 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 63 64 SSE 13 23 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 68 70 SSE 13 23 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 72 76 S 12 21 6040 5200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 75 79 S 12 21 11631 6031 831 Blue 3
2 PM Wed 76 81 S 12 21 14000 10286 5086 White 5
3 PM Wed 77 81 SSW 9 19 14000 10286 5086 White 5
4 PM Wed 77 80 SSW 9 19 12866 7718 2518 Blue 4
5 PM Wed 75 77 SSW 9 19 7856 5200 0 Blue 1
6 PM Wed 73 73 W 8 17 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 70 70 W 8 17 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 66 66 W 8 17 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 63 63 E 5 11 5000 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 62 62 E 5 11 5000 5200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]