Detailed Predictions for: Pt Of The Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 40.4715, -111.8883, 5200
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

KSLC

Date/Time:

24 JUL 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 80 80 SE 3 5 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 78 78 SE 3 5 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 75 75 SE 3 5 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 74 74 SE 6 12 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 71 71 SE 8 12 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 71 71 SE 8 12 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 71 71 SE 9 13 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 69 69 SE 9 13 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 71 71 SE 9 13 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 74 76 SSE 9 13 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 80 83 SSE 9 13 6130 5581 381 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 83 88 SSE 9 13 11199 6964 1764 Blue 5
12 Noon Wed 89 95 S 8 12 17463 15168 9968 White 12
1 PM Wed 92 99 S 8 12 18271 18271 13071 White 16
2 PM Wed 94 101 S 8 12 18671 18671 13471 White 18
3 PM Wed 95 101 WNW 5 13 18671 18671 13471 White 18
4 PM Wed 95 99 WNW 5 13 18271 18271 13071 White 16
5 PM Wed 95 98 WNW 5 13 18071 18071 12871 White 15
6 PM Wed 95 96 NW 6 12 17667 17249 12049 White 13
7 PM Wed 92 92 NW 6 12 15647 13018 7818 Blue 9
8 PM Wed 88 88 NW 6 12 11199 6964 1764 Blue 5
9 PM Wed 84 84 N 5 11 6555 5581 381 Blue 1
10 PM Wed 82 82 N 5 11 5735 5581 381 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 80 80 N 5 11 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 79 79 SE 6 11 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 77 77 SE 6 11 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 76 76 SE 6 11 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 75 75 SE 6 11 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 73 73 SE 6 11 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 72 72 SE 6 11 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 71 71 NE 6 11 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 69 69 NE 6 11 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 70 70 NE 6 11 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 71 71 NNW 6 12 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 74 75 NNW 6 12 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 78 79 NNW 6 12 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 81 83 E 8 13 6130 5581 381 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 83 86 E 8 13 8566 6124 924 Blue 3
2 PM Thu 85 88 E 8 13 11199 6964 1764 Blue 5
3 PM Thu 86 88 NNW 6 14 11199 6964 1764 Blue 5
4 PM Thu 87 89 NNW 6 14 13183 8435 3235 Blue 6
5 PM Thu 86 87 NNW 6 14 9896 6543 1343 Blue 4
6 PM Thu 85 85 NNW 8 13 6982 5733 533 Blue 2
7 PM Thu 83 83 NNW 8 13 6130 5581 381 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 80 80 NNW 8 13 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 77 77 NW 5 10 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 75 75 NW 5 10 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 74 74 NW 5 10 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 73 73 ESE 5 10 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 72 72 ESE 5 10 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 70 70 ESE 5 10 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 69 69 SE 5 10 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 68 68 SE 5 10 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 68 68 SE 5 10 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 68 68 SSE 5 10 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 68 68 SSE 5 10 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 69 69 SSE 5 10 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 69 70 SSE 8 11 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 72 75 SSE 8 11 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 75 79 SSE 8 11 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 79 82 SSW 8 13 5735 5581 381 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 82 86 SSW 8 13 8566 6124 924 Blue 3
2 PM Fri 84 88 SSW 8 13 11199 6964 1764 Blue 5
3 PM Fri 85 88 W 8 16 11199 6964 1764 Blue 5
4 PM Fri 86 89 W 8 16 13183 8435 3235 Blue 6
5 PM Fri 86 88 W 8 16 11199 6964 1764 Blue 5
6 PM Fri 85 86 NW 8 13 8566 6124 924 Blue 3
7 PM Fri 82 82 NW 8 13 5735 5581 381 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 79 79 NW 8 13 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 76 76 E 6 11 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 75 75 E 6 11 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 74 74 E 6 11 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 73 73 ESE 6 11 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 71 71 ESE 6 11 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 70 70 ESE 6 11 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 68 68 SE 6 11 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 67 67 SE 6 11 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 66 66 SE 6 11 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 65 65 SE 8 12 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 65 65 SE 8 12 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 66 66 SE 8 12 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 68 69 SSE 11 17 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 73 76 SSE 11 17 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 78 83 SSE 11 17 6130 5581 381 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 82 88 S 14 24 11199 6964 1764 Blue 5
1 PM Sat 86 93 S 14 24 17055 13689 8489 White 10
2 PM Sat 88 95 S 14 24 17463 15168 9968 White 12
3 PM Sat 89 95 SW 17 26 17463 15168 9968 White 12
4 PM Sat 89 94 SW 17 26 17260 14327 9127 White 11
5 PM Sat 89 92 SW 17 26 15647 13018 7818 Blue 9
6 PM Sat 87 89 WSW 14 24 13183 8435 3235 Blue 6
7 PM Sat 83 83 WSW 14 24 6130 5581 381 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 79 79 WSW 14 24 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 76 76 NNW 11 18 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 75 75 NNW 11 18 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 74 74 NNW 11 18 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 73 73 NE 5 11 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 71 71 NE 5 11 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 68 68 NE 5 11 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 66 66 SE 6 11 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 65 65 SE 6 11 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 64 64 SE 6 11 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 64 64 SE 8 12 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 64 64 SE 8 12 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 65 65 SE 8 12 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 67 69 SSE 10 16 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 71 74 SSE 10 16 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 75 80 SSE 10 16 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 79 86 S 12 19 8566 6124 924 Blue 3
1 PM Sun 82 90 S 12 19 13861 9740 4540 Blue 7
2 PM Sun 84 92 S 12 19 15647 13018 7818 Blue 9
3 PM Sun 86 93 S 12 20 17055 13689 8489 White 10
4 PM Sun 87 92 S 12 20 15647 13018 7818 Blue 9
5 PM Sun 88 92 S 12 20 15647 13018 7818 Blue 9
6 PM Sun 87 89 WSW 11 19 13183 8435 3235 Blue 6
7 PM Sun 84 85 WSW 11 19 6982 5733 533 Blue 2
8 PM Sun 80 80 WSW 11 19 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 76 76 NNE 8 13 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 74 74 NNE 8 13 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 73 73 NNE 8 13 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 72 72 SE 9 13 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 70 70 SE 9 13 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 69 69 SE 9 13 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 67 67 SSE 11 17 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 66 66 SSE 11 17 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 65 65 SSE 11 17 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 64 64 SSE 12 18 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 65 65 SSE 12 18 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 66 66 SSE 12 18 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 68 70 SSE 13 21 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 72 75 SSE 13 21 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 76 81 SSE 13 21 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 80 87 S 14 23 9896 6543 1343 Blue 4
1 PM Mon 83 90 S 14 23 13861 9740 4540 Blue 7
2 PM Mon 86 94 S 14 23 17260 14327 9127 White 11
3 PM Mon 87 94 SSW 14 24 17260 14327 9127 White 11
4 PM Mon 89 94 SSW 14 24 17260 14327 9127 White 11
5 PM Mon 89 92 SSW 14 24 15647 13018 7818 Blue 9
6 PM Mon 88 90 SSW 13 21 13861 9740 4540 Blue 7
7 PM Mon 85 85 SSW 13 21 6982 5733 533 Blue 2
8 PM Mon 81 81 SSW 13 21 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 77 77 SSE 9 14 5581 5581 381 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 75 75 SSE 9 14 5581 5581 381 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]