Detailed Predictions for: Pt Of The Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 5200
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

KSLC

Date/Time:

20 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sun 31 31 NW 15 5171 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 30 30 NW 15 5171 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 29 29 NW 15 5171 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 29 29 NW 15 5171 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 32 32 NW 15 5171 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 35 35 NW 15 5171 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 36 38 N 14 10479 5200 0 White 2
1 PM Sun 38 40 N 14 10900 10548 5348 White 3
2 PM Sun 40 42 N 14 11319 11319 6119 White 5
3 PM Sun 41 42 N 14 11319 11319 6119 White 5
4 PM Sun 42 43 N 14 11528 11528 6328 White 6
5 PM Sun 41 41 N 14 11110 11062 5862 White 4
6 PM Sun 40 40 NE 10 10900 10548 5348 White 3
7 PM Sun 35 35 NE 10 5171 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 34 34 NE 10 5171 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 33 33 SE 6 5171 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 33 33 SE 6 5171 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 33 33 SE 6 5171 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 33 33 SE 15 5171 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 33 33 SE 15 5171 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 34 34 SE 15 5171 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 35 35 SE 13 5171 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 34 34 SE 13 5171 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 34 34 SE 13 5171 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 35 35 SE 6 5171 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 34 34 SE 6 5171 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 32 32 SE 6 5171 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 33 33 NE 6 5171 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 36 36 NE 6 8512 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 41 41 NE 6 11110 11062 5862 White 4
12 Noon Mon 43 44 N 14 11736 11736 6536 White 7
1 PM Mon 45 46 N 14 12152 12152 6952 White 9
2 PM Mon 48 49 N 14 12773 12773 7573 White 12
3 PM Mon 49 50 N 14 12979 12979 7779 White 13
4 PM Mon 50 50 N 14 12979 12979 7779 White 13
5 PM Mon 49 49 N 14 12773 12773 7573 White 12
6 PM Mon 47 47 NW 5 12359 12359 7159 White 10
7 PM Mon 44 44 NW 5 11736 11736 6536 White 7
8 PM Mon 42 42 NW 5 11319 11319 6119 White 5
9 PM Mon 39 39 NW 5 10691 5200 0 White 2
10 PM Mon 38 38 NW 5 10479 5200 0 White 2
11 PM Mon 37 37 NW 5 10266 5200 0 White 1
12 Midnight Tue 37 37 SE 7 10266 5200 0 White 1
1 AM Tue 37 37 SE 7 10266 5200 0 White 1
2 AM Tue 37 37 SE 7 10266 5200 0 White 1
3 AM Tue 37 37 SE 7 10266 5200 0 White 1
4 AM Tue 37 37 SE 7 10266 5200 0 White 1
5 AM Tue 37 37 SE 7 10266 5200 0 White 1
6 AM Tue 37 37 S 7 10266 5200 0 White 1
7 AM Tue 36 36 S 7 8512 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 35 35 S 7 5171 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 36 36 S 7 8512 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 39 39 S 7 10691 5200 0 White 2
11 AM Tue 44 45 S 7 11944 11944 6744 White 8
12 Noon Tue 48 50 S 7 12979 12979 7779 White 13
1 PM Tue 52 54 S 7 13801 13801 8601 White 17
2 PM Tue 55 57 S 7 14410 14410 9210 White 20
3 PM Tue 56 58 S 7 14609 14609 9409 White 21
4 PM Tue 57 58 S 7 14609 14609 9409 White 21
5 PM Tue 57 57 S 7 14410 14410 9210 White 20
6 PM Tue 55 55 W 6 14006 14006 8806 White 18
7 PM Tue 52 52 W 6 13391 13391 8191 White 15
8 PM Tue 49 49 W 6 12773 12773 7573 White 12
9 PM Tue 46 46 W 6 12152 12152 6952 White 9
10 PM Tue 44 44 W 6 11736 11736 6536 White 7
11 PM Tue 43 43 W 6 11528 11528 6328 White 6
12 Midnight Wed 43 43 W 6 11528 11528 6328 White 6
1 AM Wed 43 43 W 6 11528 11528 6328 White 6
2 AM Wed 44 44 W 6 11736 11736 6536 White 7
3 AM Wed 43 43 W 6 11528 11528 6328 White 6
4 AM Wed 42 42 W 6 11319 11319 6119 White 5
5 AM Wed 41 41 W 6 11110 11062 5862 White 4
6 AM Wed 40 40 NW 8 10900 10548 5348 White 3
7 AM Wed 38 38 NW 8 10479 5200 0 White 2
8 AM Wed 37 37 NW 8 10266 5200 0 White 1
9 AM Wed 37 37 NW 8 10266 5200 0 White 1
10 AM Wed 40 40 NW 8 10900 10548 5348 White 3
11 AM Wed 44 45 NW 8 11944 11944 6744 White 8
12 Noon Wed 48 50 NW 9 12979 12979 7779 White 13
1 PM Wed 51 53 NW 9 13597 13597 8397 White 16
2 PM Wed 53 55 NW 9 14006 14006 8806 White 18
3 PM Wed 54 56 NW 9 14211 14211 9011 White 19
4 PM Wed 54 55 NW 9 14006 14006 8806 White 18
5 PM Wed 52 52 NW 9 13391 13391 8191 White 15
6 PM Wed 52 52 NW 13 13391 13391 8191 White 15
7 PM Wed 50 50 NW 13 12979 12979 7779 White 13
8 PM Wed 48 48 NW 13 12567 12567 7367 White 11
9 PM Wed 45 45 NW 13 11944 11944 6744 White 8
10 PM Wed 42 42 NW 13 11319 11319 6119 White 5
11 PM Wed 39 39 NW 13 10691 5200 0 White 2
12 Midnight Thu 36 36 N 8 8512 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 33 33 N 8 5171 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 32 32 N 8 5171 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 31 31 N 8 5171 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 30 30 N 8 5171 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 30 30 N 8 5171 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 31 31 N 8 5171 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 32 32 N 8 5171 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 33 33 N 8 5171 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 36 36 N 8 8512 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 38 38 N 8 10479 5200 0 White 2
11 AM Thu 40 41 N 8 11110 11062 5862 White 4
12 Noon Thu 42 44 N 7 11736 11736 6536 White 7
1 PM Thu 44 47 N 7 12359 12359 7159 White 10
2 PM Thu 46 49 N 7 12773 12773 7573 White 12
3 PM Thu 47 49 N 7 12773 12773 7573 White 12
4 PM Thu 48 49 N 7 12773 12773 7573 White 12
5 PM Thu 48 48 N 7 12567 12567 7367 White 11
6 PM Thu 47 47 N 9 12359 12359 7159 White 10
7 PM Thu 46 46 N 9 12152 12152 6952 White 9
8 PM Thu 44 44 N 9 11736 11736 6536 White 7
9 PM Thu 42 42 N 9 11319 11319 6119 White 5
10 PM Thu 39 39 N 9 10691 5200 0 White 2
11 PM Thu 37 37 N 9 10266 5200 0 White 1
12 Midnight Fri 34 34 E 6 5171 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 32 32 E 6 5171 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 30 30 E 6 5171 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 29 29 E 6 5171 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 29 29 E 6 5171 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 29 29 E 6 5171 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 30 30 SE 7 5171 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 32 32 SE 7 5171 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 35 35 SE 7 5171 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 38 38 SE 7 10479 5200 0 White 2
10 AM Fri 41 42 SE 7 11319 11319 6119 White 5
11 AM Fri 45 47 SE 7 12359 12359 7159 White 10
12 Noon Fri 48 51 S 6 13185 13185 7985 White 14
1 PM Fri 50 53 S 6 13597 13597 8397 White 16
2 PM Fri 52 55 S 6 14006 14006 8806 White 18
3 PM Fri 54 56 S 6 14211 14211 9011 White 19
4 PM Fri 55 56 S 6 14211 14211 9011 White 19
5 PM Fri 55 55 S 6 14006 14006 8806 White 18
6 PM Fri 54 54 SW 6 13801 13801 8601 White 17
7 PM Fri 53 53 SW 6 13597 13597 8397 White 16
8 PM Fri 51 51 SW 6 13185 13185 7985 White 14
9 PM Fri 48 48 SW 6 12567 12567 7367 White 11
10 PM Fri 46 46 SW 6 12152 12152 6952 White 9
11 PM Fri 43 43 SW 6 11528 11528 6328 White 6
12 Midnight Sat 40 40 S 8 10900 10548 5348 White 3
1 AM Sat 38 38 S 8 10479 5200 0 White 2
2 AM Sat 36 36 S 8 8512 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 35 35 S 8 5171 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 35 35 S 8 5171 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 35 35 S 8 5171 5200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]