Detailed Predictions for: Pt Of The Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 40.4715, -111.8883, 5200
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

KSLC

Date/Time:

21 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
1 AM Tue 44 44 ENE 9 13 5194 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 43 43 ENE 9 13 5194 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 42 42 SE 8 10 5194 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 42 42 SE 8 10 5194 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 41 41 SE 8 10 5194 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 44 44 SE 6 9 5194 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 40 40 SE 6 9 5194 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 41 41 SE 6 9 5194 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 46 46 S 6 10 5194 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 50 52 S 6 10 5194 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 55 58 S 6 10 9702 9447 4247 Blue 4
12 Noon Tue 58 62 S 5 9 11792 10795 5595 Blue 8
1 PM Tue 62 67 S 5 9 12860 11991 6791 Blue 13
2 PM Tue 64 69 S 5 9 13694 12332 7132 Blue 15
3 PM Tue 67 71 W 4 9 14630 13174 7974 Blue 17
4 PM Tue 69 72 W 4 9 15097 13584 8384 Blue 18
5 PM Tue 68 70 W 4 9 14123 12757 7557 Blue 16
6 PM Tue 67 67 N 5 10 12860 11991 6791 Blue 13
7 PM Tue 64 64 N 5 10 12015 11610 6410 Blue 10
8 PM Tue 59 59 N 5 10 11065 9522 4322 Blue 5
9 PM Tue 57 57 NE 4 8 9607 9372 4172 Blue 3
10 PM Tue 56 56 NE 4 8 9532 5200 0 Blue 2
11 PM Tue 54 54 NE 4 8 9381 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 55 55 E 6 9 9456 5200 0 Blue 1
1 AM Wed 53 53 E 6 9 5194 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 52 52 E 6 9 5194 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 51 51 SE 8 13 5194 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 51 51 SE 8 13 5194 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 50 50 SE 8 13 5194 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 49 49 SE 10 16 5194 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 48 48 SE 10 16 5194 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 49 49 SE 10 16 5194 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 52 52 SSE 11 17 5194 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 57 58 SSE 11 17 9702 9447 4247 Blue 4
11 AM Wed 63 66 SSE 11 17 12430 11880 6680 Blue 12
12 Noon Wed 67 71 SSE 12 17 14630 13174 7974 Blue 17
1 PM Wed 70 74 SSE 12 17 15598 14478 9278 Blue 20
2 PM Wed 73 77 SSE 12 17 16319 15549 10349 Blue 22
3 PM Wed 75 79 SSE 8 11 16894 15832 10632 Blue 24
4 PM Wed 77 80 SSE 8 11 17087 16183 10983 Blue 25
5 PM Wed 77 78 SSE 8 11 16690 15691 10491 Blue 23
6 PM Wed 75 75 S 5 9 15740 14966 9766 Blue 21
7 PM Wed 72 72 S 5 9 15097 13584 8384 Blue 18
8 PM Wed 67 67 S 5 9 12860 11991 6791 Blue 13
9 PM Wed 64 64 ENE 5 8 12015 11610 6410 Blue 10
10 PM Wed 62 62 ENE 5 8 11792 10795 5595 Blue 8
11 PM Wed 61 61 ENE 5 8 11658 9687 4487 Blue 7
12 Midnight Thu 60 60 ESE 6 10 11418 9597 4397 Blue 6
1 AM Thu 59 59 ESE 6 10 11065 9522 4322 Blue 5
2 AM Thu 58 58 ESE 6 10 9702 9447 4247 Blue 4
3 AM Thu 57 57 ESE 6 10 9607 9372 4172 Blue 3
4 AM Thu 56 56 ESE 6 10 9532 5200 0 Blue 2
5 AM Thu 56 56 ESE 6 10 9532 5200 0 Blue 2
6 AM Thu 55 55 E 6 10 9456 5200 0 Blue 1
7 AM Thu 54 54 E 6 10 9381 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 54 54 E 6 10 9381 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 55 55 N 10 13 9456 5200 0 Blue 1
10 AM Thu 58 59 N 10 13 11065 9522 4322 Blue 5
11 AM Thu 63 65 N 10 13 12126 11769 6569 Blue 11
12 Noon Thu 67 71 NW 10 14 14630 13174 7974 Blue 17
1 PM Thu 71 75 NW 10 14 15740 14966 9766 Blue 21
2 PM Thu 73 77 NW 10 14 16319 15549 10349 Blue 22
3 PM Thu 74 78 NNW 11 16 16690 15691 10491 Blue 23
4 PM Thu 75 78 NNW 11 16 16690 15691 10491 Blue 23
5 PM Thu 74 75 NNW 11 16 15740 14966 9766 Blue 21
6 PM Thu 72 72 NNW 12 18 15097 13584 8384 Blue 18
7 PM Thu 68 68 NNW 12 18 13281 12102 6902 Blue 14
8 PM Thu 64 64 NNW 12 18 12015 11610 6410 Blue 10
9 PM Thu 61 61 N 10 14 11658 9687 4487 Blue 7
10 PM Thu 59 59 N 10 14 11065 9522 4322 Blue 5
11 PM Thu 58 58 N 10 14 9702 9447 4247 Blue 4
12 Midnight Fri 57 57 NNE 8 11 9607 9372 4172 Blue 3
1 AM Fri 56 56 NNE 8 11 9532 5200 0 Blue 2
2 AM Fri 55 55 NNE 8 11 9456 5200 0 Blue 1
3 AM Fri 54 54 NE 6 10 9381 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 53 53 NE 6 10 5194 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 52 52 NE 6 10 5194 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 51 51 E 6 10 5194 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 51 51 E 6 10 5194 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 52 52 E 6 10 5194 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 53 53 S 6 9 5194 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 57 58 S 6 9 9702 9447 4247 Blue 4
11 AM Fri 61 64 S 6 9 12015 11610 6410 Blue 10
12 Noon Fri 66 70 W 6 9 14123 12757 7557 Blue 16
1 PM Fri 70 75 W 6 9 15740 14966 9766 Blue 21
2 PM Fri 73 78 W 6 9 16690 15691 10491 Blue 23
3 PM Fri 75 79 NNW 8 10 16894 15832 10632 Blue 24
4 PM Fri 75 78 NNW 8 10 16690 15691 10491 Blue 23
5 PM Fri 74 75 NNW 8 10 15740 14966 9766 Blue 21
6 PM Fri 72 72 NNW 10 14 15097 13584 8384 Blue 18
7 PM Fri 68 68 NNW 10 14 13281 12102 6902 Blue 14
8 PM Fri 65 65 NNW 10 14 12126 11769 6569 Blue 11
9 PM Fri 62 62 NNW 6 10 11792 10795 5595 Blue 8
10 PM Fri 60 60 NNW 6 10 11418 9597 4397 Blue 6
11 PM Fri 59 59 NNW 6 10 11065 9522 4322 Blue 5
12 Midnight Sat 59 59 E 5 9 11065 9522 4322 Blue 5
1 AM Sat 58 58 E 5 9 9702 9447 4247 Blue 4
2 AM Sat 57 57 E 5 9 9607 9372 4172 Blue 3
3 AM Sat 55 55 ESE 6 9 9456 5200 0 Blue 1
4 AM Sat 54 54 ESE 6 9 9381 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 54 54 ESE 6 9 9381 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 53 53 SE 9 10 5194 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 53 53 SE 9 10 5194 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 54 54 SE 9 10 9381 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 55 55 S 10 13 9456 5200 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sat 59 61 S 10 13 11658 9687 4487 Blue 7
11 AM Sat 64 67 S 10 13 12860 11991 6791 Blue 13
12 Noon Sat 68 72 S 9 13 15097 13584 8384 Blue 18
1 PM Sat 73 78 S 9 13 16690 15691 10491 Blue 23
2 PM Sat 76 81 S 9 13 17280 16550 11350 Blue 26
3 PM Sat 78 82 SW 9 13 17472 16819 11619 Blue 27
4 PM Sat 79 82 SW 9 13 17472 16819 11619 Blue 27
5 PM Sat 78 80 SW 9 13 17087 16183 10983 Blue 25
6 PM Sat 76 76 NNW 9 13 15943 15309 10109 Blue 22
7 PM Sat 72 72 NNW 9 13 15097 13584 8384 Blue 18
8 PM Sat 68 68 NNW 9 13 13281 12102 6902 Blue 14
9 PM Sat 64 64 NNE 5 8 12015 11610 6410 Blue 10
10 PM Sat 62 62 NNE 5 8 11792 10795 5595 Blue 8
11 PM Sat 61 61 NNE 5 8 11658 9687 4487 Blue 7
12 Midnight Sun 61 61 SE 6 10 11658 9687 4487 Blue 7
1 AM Sun 59 59 SE 6 10 11065 9522 4322 Blue 5
2 AM Sun 57 57 SE 6 10 9607 9372 4172 Blue 3
3 AM Sun 56 56 SE 8 10 9532 5200 0 Blue 2
4 AM Sun 55 55 SE 8 10 9456 5200 0 Blue 1
5 AM Sun 55 55 SE 8 10 9456 5200 0 Blue 1
6 AM Sun 55 55 SSE 9 13 9456 5200 0 Blue 1
7 AM Sun 54 54 SSE 9 13 9381 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 54 54 SSE 9 13 9381 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 56 56 SSE 9 14 9532 5200 0 Blue 2
10 AM Sun 60 61 SSE 9 14 11658 9687 4487 Blue 7
11 AM Sun 66 69 SSE 9 14 13694 12332 7132 Blue 15
12 Noon Sun 72 76 S 10 13 15943 15309 10109 Blue 22
1 PM Sun 76 81 S 10 13 17280 16550 11350 Blue 26
2 PM Sun 78 83 S 10 13 17664 17011 11811 Blue 28
3 PM Sun 79 83 W 9 14 17664 17011 11811 Blue 28
4 PM Sun 80 83 W 9 14 17664 17011 11811 Blue 28
5 PM Sun 80 81 W 9 14 17280 16550 11350 Blue 26
6 PM Sun 78 78 NNW 10 14 16690 15691 10491 Blue 23
7 PM Sun 75 75 NNW 10 14 15740 14966 9766 Blue 21
8 PM Sun 71 71 NNW 10 14 14630 13174 7974 Blue 17
9 PM Sun 67 67 NNE 5 9 12860 11991 6791 Blue 13
10 PM Sun 65 65 NNE 5 9 12126 11769 6569 Blue 11
11 PM Sun 64 64 NNE 5 9 12015 11610 6410 Blue 10

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]