Detailed Predictions for: Pt Of The Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 5200
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

KSLC

Date/Time:

1 DEC 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 29 29 N 13 5125 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 27 27 N 13 5125 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 25 25 N 13 5125 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 25 25 N 13 5125 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 27 27 N 13 5125 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 31 31 N 13 5452 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 33 34 N 18 9028 5455 255 White 2
12 Noon Tue 35 36 N 18 9465 7050 1850 White 4
1 PM Tue 36 37 N 18 9683 9683 4483 White 5
2 PM Tue 37 38 N 18 9900 9900 4700 White 6
3 PM Tue 37 37 N 18 9683 9683 4483 White 5
4 PM Tue 35 35 N 18 9247 5990 790 White 3
5 PM Tue 32 32 N 14 5995 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 30 30 N 14 5125 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 29 29 N 14 5125 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 27 27 N 12 5125 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 27 27 N 12 5125 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 27 27 N 12 5125 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 27 27 N 10 5125 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 25 25 N 10 5125 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 25 25 N 10 5125 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 24 24 N 10 5125 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 24 24 N 10 5125 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 23 23 N 10 5125 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 23 23 N 10 5125 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 21 21 N 10 5125 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 20 20 N 10 5125 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 20 20 N 9 5125 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 23 23 N 9 5125 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 27 27 N 9 5125 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 31 32 NW 9 5995 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 33 34 NW 9 9028 5455 255 White 2
1 PM Wed 35 36 NW 9 9465 7050 1850 White 4
2 PM Wed 36 37 N 13 9683 9683 4483 White 5
3 PM Wed 35 35 N 13 9247 5990 790 White 3
4 PM Wed 34 34 N 13 9028 5455 255 White 2
5 PM Wed 32 32 NE 10 5995 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 29 29 NE 10 5125 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 27 27 NE 10 5125 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 26 26 NE 9 5125 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 26 26 NE 9 5125 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 25 25 NE 9 5125 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 25 25 E 8 5125 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 24 24 E 8 5125 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 23 23 E 8 5125 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 22 22 E 9 5125 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 21 21 E 9 5125 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 21 21 E 9 5125 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 21 21 E 9 5125 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 19 19 E 9 5125 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 18 18 E 9 5125 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 18 18 SE 9 5125 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 21 21 SE 9 5125 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 26 26 SE 9 5125 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 31 32 S 8 5995 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 35 36 S 8 9465 7050 1850 White 4
1 PM Thu 37 38 S 8 9900 9900 4700 White 6
2 PM Thu 38 39 NW 9 10117 10117 4917 White 7
3 PM Thu 37 37 NW 9 9683 9683 4483 White 5
4 PM Thu 35 35 NW 9 9247 5990 790 White 3
5 PM Thu 32 32 N 10 5995 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 30 30 N 10 5125 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 29 29 N 10 5125 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 28 28 N 9 5125 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 28 28 N 9 5125 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 28 28 N 9 5125 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 27 27 NE 9 5125 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 27 27 NE 9 5125 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 26 26 NE 9 5125 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 25 25 NE 9 5125 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 25 25 NE 9 5125 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 25 25 NE 9 5125 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 24 24 NE 9 5125 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 23 23 NE 9 5125 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 21 21 NE 9 5125 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 21 21 E 9 5125 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 24 24 E 9 5125 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 30 30 E 9 5125 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 35 36 NW 9 9465 7050 1850 White 4
12 Noon Fri 39 40 NW 9 10330 10330 5130 White 8
1 PM Fri 42 43 NW 9 10961 10961 5761 White 11
2 PM Fri 42 43 N 10 10961 10961 5761 White 11
3 PM Fri 40 40 N 10 10330 10330 5130 White 8
4 PM Fri 38 38 N 10 9900 9900 4700 White 6
5 PM Fri 35 35 N 9 9247 5990 790 White 3
6 PM Fri 32 32 N 9 5995 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 30 30 N 9 5125 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 30 30 N 9 5125 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 29 29 N 9 5125 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 29 29 N 9 5125 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 28 28 N 8 5125 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 27 27 N 8 5125 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 26 26 N 8 5125 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 26 26 N 9 5125 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 26 26 N 9 5125 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 26 26 N 9 5125 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 26 26 E 8 5125 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 24 24 E 8 5125 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 22 22 E 8 5125 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 22 22 E 9 5125 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 25 25 E 9 5125 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 30 30 E 9 5125 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 35 36 W 8 9465 7050 1850 White 4
12 Noon Sat 39 40 W 8 10330 10330 5130 White 8
1 PM Sat 42 43 W 8 10961 10961 5761 White 11
2 PM Sat 43 44 N 9 11171 11171 5971 White 12
3 PM Sat 42 42 N 9 10751 10751 5551 White 10
4 PM Sat 39 39 N 9 10117 10117 4917 White 7
5 PM Sat 36 36 NW 9 9465 7050 1850 White 4
6 PM Sat 34 34 NW 9 9028 5455 255 White 2
7 PM Sat 33 33 NW 9 7063 5200 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sat 32 32 N 9 5995 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 32 32 N 9 5995 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 31 31 N 9 5452 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 31 31 NE 8 5452 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 30 30 NE 8 5125 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 28 28 NE 8 5125 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 28 28 E 9 5125 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 28 28 E 9 5125 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 28 28 E 9 5125 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 28 28 E 9 5125 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 26 26 E 9 5125 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 25 25 E 9 5125 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 25 25 SE 9 5125 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 28 28 SE 9 5125 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 33 33 SE 9 7063 5200 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sun 38 39 NW 9 10117 10117 4917 White 7
12 Noon Sun 42 43 NW 9 10961 10961 5761 White 11
1 PM Sun 44 45 NW 9 11382 11382 6182 White 13
2 PM Sun 45 46 NW 9 11592 11592 6392 White 14
3 PM Sun 44 44 NW 9 11171 11171 5971 White 12
4 PM Sun 41 41 NW 9 10540 10540 5340 White 9
5 PM Sun 38 38 N 9 9900 9900 4700 White 6
6 PM Sun 35 35 N 9 9247 5990 790 White 3
7 PM Sun 33 33 N 9 7063 5200 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sun 31 31 N 9 5452 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 31 31 N 9 5452 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 31 31 N 9 5452 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 31 31 NE 9 5452 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 31 31 NE 9 5452 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 30 30 NE 9 5125 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 29 29 NE 9 5125 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 29 29 NE 9 5125 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 29 29 NE 9 5125 5200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]