Detailed Predictions for: Pt Of The Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 40.4715, -111.8883, 5200
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

 KSLC

Date/Time UTC:

 250322/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Sat 38 38 SE 6 12 5917 5527 327 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 37 37 SE 6 12 5527 5527 327 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 39 39 SE 6 12 6201 5527 327 Blue 1
3 AM Sat 38 38 ESE 5 10 5917 5527 327 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 38 38 ESE 5 10 5917 5527 327 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 37 37 ESE 5 10 5527 5527 327 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 36 36 ESE 5 10 5527 5527 327 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 37 37 ESE 5 10 5527 5527 327 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 37 37 ESE 5 10 5527 5527 327 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 38 38 SE 8 14 5917 5527 327 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 38 38 SE 8 14 5917 5527 327 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 41 41 SE 8 14 7167 5914 714 Blue 3
12 Noon Sat 42 43 WSW 10 16 8193 6630 1430 Blue 5
1 PM Sat 44 45 WSW 10 16 8713 7652 2452 White 7
2 PM Sat 45 46 WSW 10 16 8934 8151 2951 White 8
3 PM Sat 47 48 N 10 17 9374 9143 3943 White 10
4 PM Sat 47 47 N 10 17 9154 8636 3436 White 9
5 PM Sat 48 48 N 10 17 9374 9143 3943 White 10
6 PM Sat 49 49 ENE 11 17 9591 9438 4238 White 11
7 PM Sat 46 46 ENE 11 17 8934 8151 2951 White 8
8 PM Sat 43 43 ENE 11 17 8193 6630 1430 Blue 5
9 PM Sat 40 40 WNW 9 12 6647 5527 327 Blue 2
10 PM Sat 39 39 WNW 9 12 6201 5527 327 Blue 1
11 PM Sat 38 38 WNW 9 12 5917 5527 327 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 37 37 N 6 11 5527 5527 327 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 37 37 N 6 11 5527 5527 327 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 36 36 N 6 11 5527 5527 327 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 35 35 ENE 6 9 5527 5527 327 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 35 35 ENE 6 9 5527 5527 327 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 34 34 ENE 6 9 5527 5527 327 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 34 34 NE 5 8 5527 5527 327 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 34 34 NE 5 8 5527 5527 327 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 33 33 NE 5 8 5527 5527 327 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 36 36 SSE 5 9 5527 5527 327 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 39 40 SSE 5 9 6647 5527 327 Blue 2
11 AM Sun 42 45 SSE 5 9 8713 7652 2452 White 7
12 Noon Sun 45 49 WSW 6 12 9591 9438 4238 White 11
1 PM Sun 47 51 WSW 6 12 10024 9888 4688 White 13
2 PM Sun 48 52 WSW 6 12 10240 10240 5040 White 14
3 PM Sun 51 54 NW 8 13 10669 10669 5469 White 16
4 PM Sun 52 54 NW 8 13 10669 10669 5469 White 16
5 PM Sun 52 53 NW 8 13 10455 10455 5255 White 15
6 PM Sun 52 52 N 9 16 10240 10240 5040 White 14
7 PM Sun 50 50 N 9 16 9807 9663 4463 White 12
8 PM Sun 47 47 N 9 16 9154 8636 3436 White 9
9 PM Sun 44 44 ENE 6 10 8492 7140 1940 White 6
10 PM Sun 43 43 ENE 6 10 8193 6630 1430 Blue 5
11 PM Sun 42 42 ENE 6 10 7687 6195 995 Blue 4
12 Midnight Mon 41 41 SE 6 9 7167 5914 714 Blue 3
1 AM Mon 40 40 SE 6 9 6647 5527 327 Blue 2
2 AM Mon 40 40 SE 6 9 6647 5527 327 Blue 2
3 AM Mon 39 39 ESE 5 9 6201 5527 327 Blue 1
4 AM Mon 39 39 ESE 5 9 6201 5527 327 Blue 1
5 AM Mon 38 38 ESE 5 9 5917 5527 327 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 37 37 SE 5 10 5527 5527 327 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 38 38 SE 5 10 5917 5527 327 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 39 39 SE 5 10 6201 5527 327 Blue 1
9 AM Mon 40 40 SE 6 10 6647 5527 327 Blue 2
10 AM Mon 43 44 SE 6 10 8492 7140 1940 White 6
11 AM Mon 47 49 SE 6 10 9591 9438 4238 White 11
12 Noon Mon 51 54 SW 9 13 10669 10669 5469 White 16
1 PM Mon 54 57 SW 9 13 11310 11310 6110 White 19
2 PM Mon 57 60 SW 9 13 11945 11945 6745 White 22
3 PM Mon 59 62 NNW 10 16 12366 12366 7166 White 24
4 PM Mon 60 62 NNW 10 16 12366 12366 7166 White 24
5 PM Mon 61 62 NNW 10 16 12366 12366 7166 White 24
6 PM Mon 60 60 N 12 18 11945 11945 6745 White 22
7 PM Mon 57 57 N 12 18 11310 11310 6110 White 19
8 PM Mon 53 53 N 12 18 10455 10455 5255 White 15
9 PM Mon 49 49 NNE 8 11 9591 9438 4238 White 11
10 PM Mon 47 47 NNE 8 11 9154 8636 3436 White 9
11 PM Mon 46 46 NNE 8 11 8934 8151 2951 White 8
12 Midnight Tue 45 45 ENE 5 10 8713 7652 2452 White 7
1 AM Tue 44 44 ENE 5 10 8492 7140 1940 White 6
2 AM Tue 43 43 ENE 5 10 8193 6630 1430 Blue 5
3 AM Tue 43 43 E 5 9 8193 6630 1430 Blue 5
4 AM Tue 42 42 E 5 9 7687 6195 995 Blue 4
5 AM Tue 41 41 E 5 9 7167 5914 714 Blue 3
6 AM Tue 41 41 E 5 9 7167 5914 714 Blue 3
7 AM Tue 42 42 E 5 9 7687 6195 995 Blue 4
8 AM Tue 42 42 E 5 9 7687 6195 995 Blue 4
9 AM Tue 44 44 ESE 6 10 8492 7140 1940 White 6
10 AM Tue 47 48 ESE 6 10 9374 9143 3943 White 10
11 AM Tue 51 54 ESE 6 10 10669 10669 5469 White 16
12 Noon Tue 55 59 S 6 10 11735 11735 6535 White 21
1 PM Tue 58 63 S 6 10 12574 12574 7374 White 25
2 PM Tue 61 66 S 6 10 13197 13197 7997 White 28
3 PM Tue 63 67 N 8 12 13402 13402 8202 White 29
4 PM Tue 65 68 N 8 12 13607 13607 8407 White 30
5 PM Tue 65 66 N 8 12 13197 13197 7997 White 28
6 PM Tue 64 64 N 10 14 12784 12784 7584 White 26
7 PM Tue 61 61 N 10 14 12156 12156 6956 White 23
8 PM Tue 57 57 N 10 14 11310 11310 6110 White 19
9 PM Tue 53 53 N 6 10 10455 10455 5255 White 15
10 PM Tue 51 51 N 6 10 10024 9888 4688 White 13
11 PM Tue 50 50 N 6 10 9807 9663 4463 White 12
12 Midnight Wed 49 49 ENE 5 9 9591 9438 4238 White 11
1 AM Wed 48 48 ENE 5 9 9374 9143 3943 White 10
2 AM Wed 47 47 ENE 5 9 9154 8636 3436 White 9
3 AM Wed 46 46 ESE 6 11 8934 8151 2951 White 8
4 AM Wed 45 45 ESE 6 11 8713 7652 2452 White 7
5 AM Wed 44 44 ESE 6 11 8492 7140 1940 White 6
6 AM Wed 44 44 SE 10 13 8492 7140 1940 White 6
7 AM Wed 45 45 SE 10 13 8713 7652 2452 White 7
8 AM Wed 45 45 SE 10 13 8713 7652 2452 White 7
9 AM Wed 47 47 SSE 11 17 9154 8636 3436 White 9
10 AM Wed 51 52 SSE 11 17 10240 10240 5040 White 14
11 AM Wed 55 58 SSE 11 17 11523 11523 6323 White 20
12 Noon Wed 59 63 S 11 18 12574 12574 7374 White 25
1 PM Wed 63 67 S 11 18 13402 13402 8202 White 29
2 PM Wed 66 70 S 11 18 14017 14017 8817 White 32
3 PM Wed 68 71 S 11 19 14220 14220 9020 White 33
4 PM Wed 70 72 S 11 19 14420 14420 9220 White 34
5 PM Wed 70 71 S 11 19 14220 14220 9020 White 33
6 PM Wed 69 69 S 12 19 13813 13813 8613 White 31
7 PM Wed 66 66 S 12 19 13197 13197 7997 White 28
8 PM Wed 62 62 S 12 19 12366 12366 7166 White 24
9 PM Wed 58 58 SE 10 17 11523 11523 6323 White 20
10 PM Wed 56 56 SE 10 17 11098 11098 5898 White 18
11 PM Wed 55 55 SE 10 17 10885 10885 5685 White 17
12 Midnight Thu 54 54 SSE 13 19 10669 10669 5469 White 16
1 AM Thu 53 53 SSE 13 19 10455 10455 5255 White 15
2 AM Thu 52 52 SSE 13 19 10240 10240 5040 White 14
3 AM Thu 51 51 SSE 13 19 10024 9888 4688 White 13
4 AM Thu 50 50 SSE 13 19 9807 9663 4463 White 12
5 AM Thu 49 49 SSE 13 19 9591 9438 4238 White 11
6 AM Thu 49 49 SSE 16 21 9591 9438 4238 White 11
7 AM Thu 49 49 SSE 16 21 9591 9438 4238 White 11
8 AM Thu 50 50 SSE 16 21 9807 9663 4463 White 12
9 AM Thu 51 51 SSE 17 25 10024 9888 4688 White 13
10 AM Thu 54 55 SSE 17 25 10885 10885 5685 White 17
11 AM Thu 57 58 SSE 17 25 11523 11523 6323 White 20
12 Noon Thu 60 62 S 19 28 12366 12366 7166 White 24
1 PM Thu 63 65 S 19 28 12990 12990 7790 White 27
2 PM Thu 65 67 S 19 28 13402 13402 8202 White 29
3 PM Thu 66 67 W 21 32 13402 13402 8202 White 29
4 PM Thu 66 67 W 21 32 13402 13402 8202 White 29
5 PM Thu 64 64 W 21 32 12784 12784 7584 White 26
6 PM Thu 62 62 NW 19 28 12366 12366 7166 White 24
7 PM Thu 58 58 NW 19 28 11523 11523 6323 White 20
8 PM Thu 54 54 NW 19 28 10669 10669 5469 White 16
9 PM Thu 50 50 NW 18 26 9807 9663 4463 White 12
10 PM Thu 48 48 NW 18 26 9374 9143 3943 White 10

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]