Detailed Predictions for: Pt Of The Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 40.4715, -111.8883, 5200
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

 KSLC

Date/Time UTC:

 251106/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Thu 53 53 N 13 23 9800 7470 2270 White 5
1 AM Thu 52 52 N 13 23 9578 6587 1387 White 4
2 AM Thu 51 51 N 13 21 8489 5734 534 Blue 3
3 AM Thu 50 50 N 13 21 7526 5200 0 Blue 2
4 AM Thu 47 47 N 13 21 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 45 45 N 10 16 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 44 44 N 10 16 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 42 42 N 10 16 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 42 42 N 9 13 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 43 43 N 9 13 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 45 45 N 9 13 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 48 49 N 9 14 6615 5200 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Thu 49 50 N 9 14 7526 5200 0 Blue 2
1 PM Thu 50 51 N 9 14 8489 5734 534 Blue 3
2 PM Thu 51 52 N 8 14 9578 6587 1387 White 4
3 PM Thu 50 50 N 8 14 7526 5200 0 Blue 2
4 PM Thu 49 49 N 8 14 6615 5200 0 Blue 1
5 PM Thu 47 47 N 6 11 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 43 43 N 6 11 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 42 42 N 6 11 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 41 41 NNE 4 9 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 42 42 NNE 4 9 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 40 40 NNE 4 9 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 40 40 SE 5 11 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 39 39 SE 5 11 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 39 39 SE 5 11 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 38 38 SE 8 12 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 39 39 SE 8 12 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 39 39 SE 8 12 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 38 38 SE 9 13 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 38 38 SE 9 13 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 38 38 SE 9 13 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 38 38 SSE 8 12 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 39 39 SSE 8 12 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 41 41 SSE 8 12 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 45 45 SSW 5 11 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 47 47 SSW 5 11 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 50 50 SSW 5 11 7526 5200 0 Blue 2
2 PM Fri 51 51 NNW 5 10 8489 5734 534 Blue 3
3 PM Fri 51 51 NNW 5 10 8489 5734 534 Blue 3
4 PM Fri 50 50 NNW 5 10 7526 5200 0 Blue 2
5 PM Fri 48 48 N 5 9 5738 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 47 47 N 5 9 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 45 45 N 5 9 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 43 43 NW 3 8 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 43 43 NW 3 8 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 43 43 NW 3 8 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 43 43 NNW 5 10 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 42 42 NNW 5 10 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 41 41 NNW 5 10 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 40 40 N 5 11 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 39 39 N 5 11 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 38 38 N 5 11 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 37 37 N 5 11 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 36 36 N 5 11 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 36 36 N 5 11 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 36 36 N 6 11 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 39 39 N 6 11 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 42 43 N 6 11 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 45 47 NNW 6 11 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 47 49 NNW 6 11 6615 5200 0 Blue 1
1 PM Sat 49 51 NNW 6 11 8489 5734 534 Blue 3
2 PM Sat 50 51 NNW 6 12 8489 5734 534 Blue 3
3 PM Sat 50 51 NNW 6 12 8489 5734 534 Blue 3
4 PM Sat 48 48 NNW 6 12 5738 5200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 46 46 NNW 5 10 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 44 44 NNW 5 10 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 41 41 NNW 5 10 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 39 39 N 4 9 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 38 38 N 4 9 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 39 39 N 4 9 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 39 39 NE 3 6 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 39 39 NE 3 6 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 38 38 NE 3 6 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 38 38 E 3 6 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 37 37 E 3 6 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 36 36 E 3 6 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 36 36 ESE 4 6 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 35 35 ESE 4 6 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 34 34 ESE 4 6 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 35 35 SE 5 10 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 38 38 SE 5 10 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 42 43 SE 5 10 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 46 48 S 4 8 5738 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 49 51 S 4 8 8489 5734 534 Blue 3
1 PM Sun 52 54 S 4 8 10023 8398 3198 White 6
2 PM Sun 54 55 NNW 4 8 10243 9320 4120 White 7
3 PM Sun 53 54 NNW 4 8 10023 8398 3198 White 6
4 PM Sun 51 51 NNW 4 8 8489 5734 534 Blue 3
5 PM Sun 49 49 NNW 4 9 6615 5200 0 Blue 1
6 PM Sun 46 46 NNW 4 9 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 44 44 NNW 4 9 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 42 42 NNE 3 6 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 42 42 NNE 3 6 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 42 42 NNE 3 6 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 43 43 ESE 2 6 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 42 42 ESE 2 6 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 42 42 ESE 2 6 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 41 41 SE 4 8 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 41 41 SE 4 8 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 40 40 SE 4 8 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 40 40 SE 5 11 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 39 39 SE 5 11 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 39 39 SE 5 11 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 40 40 SSE 8 12 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 43 43 SSE 8 12 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 48 49 SSE 8 12 6615 5200 0 Blue 1
11 AM Mon 52 53 S 6 11 9800 7470 2270 White 5
12 Noon Mon 56 57 S 6 11 10675 10675 5475 White 9
1 PM Mon 59 60 S 6 11 11314 11314 6114 White 12
2 PM Mon 60 61 S 5 10 11528 11528 6328 White 13
3 PM Mon 59 59 S 5 10 11102 11102 5902 White 11
4 PM Mon 57 57 S 5 10 10675 10675 5475 White 9
5 PM Mon 54 54 NW 3 6 10023 8398 3198 White 6
6 PM Mon 52 52 NW 3 6 9578 6587 1387 White 4
7 PM Mon 50 50 NW 3 6 7526 5200 0 Blue 2
8 PM Mon 48 48 SE 3 6 5738 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 48 48 SE 3 6 5738 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 48 48 SE 3 6 5738 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 48 48 SSE 5 10 5738 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 47 47 SSE 5 10 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 46 46 SSE 5 10 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 45 45 SSE 5 10 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 44 44 SSE 5 10 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 43 43 SSE 5 10 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 43 43 SSE 8 12 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 42 42 SSE 8 12 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 41 41 SSE 8 12 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 41 41 SSE 9 13 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 44 44 SSE 9 13 5087 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 49 49 SSE 9 13 6615 5200 0 Blue 1
11 AM Tue 53 54 S 8 12 10023 8398 3198 White 6
12 Noon Tue 57 58 S 8 12 10888 10888 5688 White 10
1 PM Tue 60 61 S 8 12 11528 11528 6328 White 13
2 PM Tue 61 62 S 5 10 11741 11741 6541 White 14
3 PM Tue 60 60 S 5 10 11314 11314 6114 White 12
4 PM Tue 58 58 S 5 10 10888 10888 5688 White 10
5 PM Tue 55 55 E 3 6 10243 9320 4120 White 7
6 PM Tue 53 53 E 3 6 9800 7470 2270 White 5
7 PM Tue 50 50 E 3 6 7526 5200 0 Blue 2
8 PM Tue 48 48 SE 3 8 5738 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 48 48 SE 3 8 5738 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 48 48 SE 3 8 5738 5200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]