Detailed Predictions for: Pt Of The Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 40.4715, -111.8883, 5200
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

 KSLC

Date/Time:

 5 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Tue 34 34 SE 5 9 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 34 34 SE 5 9 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 38 38 SE 6 10 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 37 37 SE 6 10 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 36 36 SE 6 10 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 35 35 ESE 5 11 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 33 33 ESE 5 11 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 34 34 ESE 5 11 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 33 33 SE 5 12 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 36 36 SE 5 12 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 39 39 SE 5 12 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 42 43 S 5 12 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 45 47 S 5 12 6477 5665 465 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 48 49 S 5 12 7393 6202 1002 Blue 2
2 PM Tue 50 51 W 4 9 8149 6734 1534 Blue 4
3 PM Tue 48 48 W 4 9 6744 5934 734 Blue 1
4 PM Tue 47 47 W 4 9 6477 5665 465 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 45 45 NNW 4 8 5938 5509 309 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 41 41 NNW 4 8 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 40 40 NNW 4 8 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 41 41 S 5 10 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 41 41 S 5 10 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 40 40 S 5 10 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 39 39 S 6 12 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 39 39 S 6 12 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 39 39 S 6 12 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 39 39 S 8 16 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 38 38 S 8 16 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 37 37 S 8 16 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 36 36 SE 8 17 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 35 35 SE 8 17 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 33 33 SE 8 17 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 33 33 SSE 10 19 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 36 36 SSE 10 19 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 39 39 SSE 10 19 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 44 45 SSE 11 19 5938 5509 309 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 46 47 SSE 11 19 6477 5665 465 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 48 49 SSE 11 19 7393 6202 1002 Blue 2
2 PM Wed 50 50 SSW 12 19 7988 6469 1269 Blue 3
3 PM Wed 49 49 SSW 12 19 7393 6202 1002 Blue 2
4 PM Wed 47 47 SSW 12 19 6477 5665 465 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 45 45 SSW 11 17 5938 5509 309 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 43 43 SSW 11 17 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 42 42 SSW 11 17 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 41 41 SSE 13 18 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 41 41 SSE 13 18 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 41 41 SSE 13 18 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 41 41 S 13 21 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 41 41 S 13 21 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 41 41 S 13 21 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 40 40 SSE 12 18 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 39 39 SSE 12 18 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 37 37 SSE 12 18 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 36 36 SE 10 14 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 35 35 SE 10 14 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 33 33 SE 10 14 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 33 33 S 8 12 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 34 34 S 8 12 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 35 35 S 8 12 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 37 37 W 9 12 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 39 39 W 9 12 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 40 40 W 9 12 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 40 40 NW 9 13 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 39 39 NW 9 13 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 37 37 NW 9 13 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 35 35 NNW 8 11 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 34 34 NNW 8 11 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 32 32 NNW 8 11 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 31 31 WNW 5 9 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 30 30 WNW 5 9 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 30 30 WNW 5 9 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 30 30 S 5 8 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 30 30 S 5 8 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 29 29 S 5 8 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 29 29 WSW 6 11 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 28 28 WSW 6 11 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 28 28 WSW 6 11 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 27 27 WNW 8 12 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 26 26 WNW 8 12 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 25 25 WNW 8 12 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 24 24 NW 10 16 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 25 25 NW 10 16 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 26 26 NW 10 16 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 27 27 NW 11 17 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 28 28 NW 11 17 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 29 29 NW 11 17 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 30 30 NW 11 17 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 29 29 NW 11 17 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 28 28 NW 11 17 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 27 27 NNW 10 16 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 26 26 NNW 10 16 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 25 25 NNW 10 16 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 24 24 NW 8 12 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 24 24 NW 8 12 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 24 24 NW 8 12 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 24 24 NW 6 11 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 23 23 NW 6 11 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 22 22 NW 6 11 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 21 21 NW 8 11 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 21 21 NW 8 11 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 21 21 NW 8 11 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 20 20 SSE 8 12 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 19 19 SSE 8 12 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 19 19 SSE 8 12 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 19 19 SSE 8 12 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 20 20 SSE 8 12 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 22 22 SSE 8 12 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 25 25 S 9 12 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 27 27 S 9 12 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 29 29 S 9 12 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 30 30 S 9 12 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 29 29 S 9 12 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 28 28 S 9 12 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 26 26 S 8 11 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 26 26 S 8 11 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 26 26 S 8 11 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 26 26 S 8 11 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 26 26 S 8 11 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 27 27 S 8 11 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 27 27 S 9 12 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 26 26 S 9 12 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 26 26 S 9 12 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 25 25 S 9 13 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 26 26 S 9 13 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 27 27 S 9 13 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 28 28 S 9 13 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 27 27 S 9 13 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 26 26 S 9 13 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 26 26 S 9 13 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 27 27 S 9 13 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 29 29 S 9 13 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 31 31 S 9 13 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 33 33 S 9 13 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 34 34 S 9 13 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 34 34 SSW 8 11 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 34 34 SSW 8 11 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 34 34 SSW 8 11 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 32 32 WSW 6 11 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 31 31 WSW 6 11 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 30 30 WSW 6 11 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 30 30 W 6 11 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 30 30 W 6 11 5509 5509 309 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 30 30 W 6 11 5509 5509 309 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]