Detailed Predictions for: Pt Of The Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 40.4715, -111.8883, 5200
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

KSLC

Date/Time:

20 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
1 AM Sun 72 72 N 10 14 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 70 70 N 10 14 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 68 68 NNE 11 14 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 67 67 NNE 11 14 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 66 66 NNE 11 14 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 72 72 ESE 9 14 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 64 64 ESE 9 14 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 72 73 ESE 9 14 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 76 78 SW 11 20 7822 5453 253 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 81 85 SW 11 20 12632 10963 5763 Blue 4
11 AM Sun 84 90 SW 11 20 18400 17324 12124 White 9
12 Noon Sun 86 93 NNW 16 26 19017 18934 13734 White 11
1 PM Sun 89 97 NNW 16 26 19813 19813 14613 White 15
2 PM Sun 90 98 NNW 16 26 20010 20010 14810 White 16
3 PM Sun 90 97 NNW 17 27 19813 19813 14613 White 15
4 PM Sun 90 96 NNW 17 27 19616 19616 14416 White 14
5 PM Sun 90 94 NNW 17 27 19220 19220 14020 White 12
6 PM Sun 89 91 NNW 16 26 18606 17880 12680 White 10
7 PM Sun 88 89 NNW 16 26 18194 13756 8556 White 8
8 PM Sun 84 84 NNW 16 26 11770 10023 4823 Blue 3
9 PM Sun 78 78 SW 12 19 7822 5453 253 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 74 74 SW 12 19 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 72 72 SW 12 19 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 70 70 N 6 10 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 66 66 N 6 10 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 65 65 N 6 10 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 65 65 NE 5 9 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 64 64 NE 5 9 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 61 61 NE 5 9 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 60 60 SE 6 10 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 60 60 SE 6 10 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 67 68 SE 6 10 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 72 74 SSW 5 10 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 76 80 SSW 5 10 9401 6901 1701 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 81 87 SSW 5 10 17550 11699 6499 Blue 6
12 Noon Mon 84 91 WNW 9 11 18606 17880 12680 White 10
1 PM Mon 88 96 WNW 9 11 19616 19616 14416 White 14
2 PM Mon 90 98 WNW 9 11 20010 20010 14810 White 16
3 PM Mon 90 97 NNW 12 16 19813 19813 14613 White 15
4 PM Mon 91 97 NNW 12 16 19813 19813 14613 White 15
5 PM Mon 92 96 NNW 12 16 19616 19616 14416 White 14
6 PM Mon 91 93 N 14 19 19017 18934 13734 White 11
7 PM Mon 88 89 N 14 19 18194 13756 8556 White 8
8 PM Mon 84 84 N 14 19 11770 10023 4823 Blue 3
9 PM Mon 80 80 N 10 16 9401 6901 1701 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 77 77 N 10 16 6938 5453 253 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 76 76 N 10 16 5966 5453 253 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 74 74 ENE 6 10 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 72 72 ENE 6 10 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 70 70 ENE 6 10 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 68 68 SE 10 13 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 66 66 SE 10 13 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 65 65 SE 10 13 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 65 65 SE 12 18 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 67 67 SE 12 18 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 71 72 SE 12 18 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 75 77 S 17 23 6938 5453 253 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 80 84 S 17 23 11770 10023 4823 Blue 3
11 AM Tue 85 91 S 17 23 18606 17880 12680 White 10
12 Noon Tue 90 97 S 19 26 19813 19813 14613 White 15
1 PM Tue 92 100 S 19 26 20402 20402 15202 White 18
2 PM Tue 94 102 S 19 26 20791 20791 15591 White 20
3 PM Tue 94 100 SSW 19 27 20402 20402 15202 White 18
4 PM Tue 95 100 SSW 19 27 20402 20402 15202 White 18
5 PM Tue 95 98 SSW 19 27 20010 20010 14810 White 16
6 PM Tue 93 94 SSW 19 28 19220 19220 14020 White 12
7 PM Tue 90 90 SSW 19 28 18400 17324 12124 White 9
8 PM Tue 86 86 SSW 19 28 16098 11331 6131 Blue 5
9 PM Tue 83 83 S 14 23 11398 9315 4115 Blue 2
10 PM Tue 80 80 S 14 23 9401 6901 1701 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 78 78 S 14 23 7822 5453 253 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 77 77 S 14 21 6938 5453 253 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 75 75 S 14 21 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 73 73 S 14 21 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 71 71 SSE 12 18 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 68 68 SSE 12 18 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 66 66 SSE 12 18 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 67 67 SSE 12 18 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 70 70 SSE 12 18 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 72 72 SSE 12 18 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 75 77 S 13 20 6938 5453 253 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 78 81 S 13 20 10120 7765 2565 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 81 85 S 13 20 12632 10963 5763 Blue 4
12 Noon Wed 84 88 SSW 16 27 17990 12377 7177 White 7
1 PM Wed 86 91 SSW 16 27 18606 17880 12680 White 10
2 PM Wed 87 92 SSW 16 27 18812 18342 13142 White 11
3 PM Wed 87 90 SSW 17 29 18400 17324 12124 White 9
4 PM Wed 87 90 SSW 17 29 18400 17324 12124 White 9
5 PM Wed 87 89 SSW 17 29 18194 13756 8556 White 8
6 PM Wed 86 87 SSW 16 27 17550 11699 6499 Blue 6
7 PM Wed 84 84 SSW 16 27 11770 10023 4823 Blue 3
8 PM Wed 81 81 SSW 16 27 10120 7765 2565 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 78 78 S 13 20 7822 5453 253 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 77 77 S 13 20 6938 5453 253 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 76 76 S 13 20 5966 5453 253 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 75 75 SSE 12 19 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 73 73 SSE 12 19 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 71 71 SSE 12 19 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 69 69 SSE 10 16 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 67 67 SSE 10 16 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 65 65 SSE 10 16 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 65 65 SSE 10 16 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 67 67 SSE 10 16 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 70 71 SSE 10 16 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 73 75 S 10 16 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 76 80 S 10 16 9401 6901 1701 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 79 85 S 10 16 12632 10963 5763 Blue 4
12 Noon Thu 82 89 SSW 11 19 18194 13756 8556 White 8
1 PM Thu 84 91 SSW 11 19 18606 17880 12680 White 10
2 PM Thu 85 92 SSW 11 19 18812 18342 13142 White 11
3 PM Thu 86 91 WNW 12 20 18606 17880 12680 White 10
4 PM Thu 87 91 WNW 12 20 18606 17880 12680 White 10
5 PM Thu 87 90 WNW 12 20 18400 17324 12124 White 9
6 PM Thu 86 88 NW 13 21 17990 12377 7177 White 7
7 PM Thu 83 83 NW 13 21 11398 9315 4115 Blue 2
8 PM Thu 80 80 NW 13 21 9401 6901 1701 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 77 77 N 10 14 6938 5453 253 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 75 75 N 10 14 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 73 73 N 10 14 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 72 72 E 10 13 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 70 70 E 10 13 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 69 69 E 10 13 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 67 67 E 6 10 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 65 65 E 6 10 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 64 64 E 6 10 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 64 64 ESE 8 10 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 66 66 ESE 8 10 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 69 70 ESE 8 10 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 73 75 SSE 8 11 5453 5453 253 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 77 81 SSE 8 11 10120 7765 2565 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 81 87 SSE 8 11 17550 11699 6499 Blue 6
12 Noon Fri 84 91 WNW 9 13 18606 17880 12680 White 10
1 PM Fri 86 94 WNW 9 13 19220 19220 14020 White 12
2 PM Fri 87 95 WNW 9 13 19418 19418 14218 White 13
3 PM Fri 88 94 NNW 12 19 19220 19220 14020 White 12
4 PM Fri 88 93 NNW 12 19 19017 18934 13734 White 11
5 PM Fri 88 91 NNW 12 19 18606 17880 12680 White 10
6 PM Fri 87 89 NNW 13 19 18194 13756 8556 White 8
7 PM Fri 84 85 NNW 13 19 12632 10963 5763 Blue 4
8 PM Fri 81 81 NNW 13 19 10120 7765 2565 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 78 78 N 10 14 7822 5453 253 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 76 76 N 10 14 5966 5453 253 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 74 74 N 10 14 5453 5453 253 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]