Detailed Predictions for: BJ
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 48.8605, -122.126, 582
LZ Altitude (f): 180
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

23 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 61 61 S 5 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 63 63 S 5 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 56 56 S 5 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 57 57 S 5 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 58 58 S 5 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 53 53 S 9 11 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 56 56 S 9 11 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 59 59 S 9 11 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 58 59 SSW 6 9 0 582 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 61 63 SSW 6 9 0 582 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 65 68 SSW 6 9 0 582 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 68 71 SSW 4 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 68 72 SSW 4 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 70 74 SSW 4 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 71 74 SSW 8 10 0 582 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 70 72 SSW 8 10 0 582 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 73 75 SSW 8 10 0 582 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 71 73 S 8 10 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 70 71 S 8 10 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 71 71 S 8 10 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 65 65 S 8 10 0 582 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 65 65 S 8 10 0 582 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 65 65 S 8 10 0 582 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 57 57 S 6 9 0 582 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 60 60 S 6 9 0 582 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 62 62 S 6 9 0 582 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 56 56 S 6 9 0 582 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 57 57 S 6 9 0 582 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 59 59 S 6 9 0 582 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 53 53 SSW 4 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 57 57 SSW 4 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 61 61 SSW 4 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 61 62 SW 6 9 0 582 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 64 66 SW 6 9 0 582 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 68 71 SW 6 9 0 582 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 71 74 SW 6 9 0 582 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 73 77 SW 6 9 2568 2388 1806 Blue 1
1 PM Thu 74 78 SW 6 9 3112 2388 1806 Blue 2
2 PM Thu 74 78 SW 6 9 3112 2388 1806 Blue 2
3 PM Thu 75 79 SW 6 9 3178 2430 1848 Blue 3
4 PM Thu 75 78 SW 6 9 3112 2388 1806 Blue 2
5 PM Thu 74 75 SW 6 9 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 73 74 SW 6 9 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 71 71 SW 6 9 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 68 68 SSW 4 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 65 65 SSW 4 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 62 62 SSW 4 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 60 60 S 4 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 60 60 S 4 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 59 59 S 4 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 59 59 WNW 2 2 0 582 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 59 59 WNW 2 2 0 582 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 58 58 WNW 2 2 0 582 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 58 58 N 3 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 60 60 N 3 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 63 63 N 3 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 67 68 N 4 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 72 75 N 4 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 77 81 N 4 5 3308 3109 2527 Blue 5
11 AM Fri 82 88 N 5 6 4018 3642 3060 Blue 12
12 Noon Fri 85 92 N 5 6 7093 4180 3598 Blue 16
1 PM Fri 86 93 N 5 6 8152 4382 3800 Blue 17
2 PM Fri 87 94 NNW 5 6 8422 4604 4022 Blue 18
3 PM Fri 88 94 NNW 5 6 8422 4604 4022 Blue 18
4 PM Fri 88 93 NNW 5 6 8152 4382 3800 Blue 17
5 PM Fri 87 90 NW 3 4 4402 3886 3304 Blue 14
6 PM Fri 85 87 NW 3 4 3896 3521 2939 Blue 11
7 PM Fri 82 82 NW 3 4 3373 3174 2592 Blue 6
8 PM Fri 79 79 SW 4 5 3178 2430 1848 Blue 3
9 PM Fri 75 75 SW 4 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 71 71 SW 4 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 69 69 S 5 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 68 68 S 5 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 67 67 S 5 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 66 66 NE 5 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 65 65 NE 5 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 64 64 NE 5 6 0 582 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 64 64 E 5 9 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 65 65 E 5 9 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 68 68 E 5 9 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 73 74 ENE 5 10 0 582 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 79 82 ENE 5 10 3373 3174 2592 Blue 6
10 AM Sat 85 89 ENE 5 10 4199 3764 3182 Blue 13
11 AM Sat 90 96 NNW 5 10 10271 7977 7395 Blue 20
12 Noon Sat 93 100 NNW 5 10 12767 11414 10832 White 24
1 PM Sat 94 102 NNW 5 10 13167 12877 12295 White 26
2 PM Sat 95 102 WNW 5 9 13167 12877 12295 White 26
3 PM Sat 96 102 WNW 5 9 13167 12877 12295 White 26
4 PM Sat 96 101 WNW 5 9 12968 12260 11678 White 25
5 PM Sat 95 98 WNW 4 5 12365 8626 8044 White 22
6 PM Sat 93 95 WNW 4 5 8960 6874 6292 Blue 19
7 PM Sat 90 90 WNW 4 5 4402 3886 3304 Blue 14
8 PM Sat 86 86 NW 4 6 3774 3434 2852 Blue 10
9 PM Sat 82 82 NW 4 6 3373 3174 2592 Blue 6
10 PM Sat 77 77 NW 4 6 2568 2388 1806 Blue 1
11 PM Sat 74 74 E 5 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 72 72 E 5 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 71 71 E 5 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 70 70 E 5 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 69 69 E 5 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 68 68 E 5 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 68 68 E 5 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 69 69 E 5 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 72 72 E 5 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 76 77 E 5 8 2568 2388 1806 Blue 1
9 AM Sun 81 84 E 5 8 3529 3304 2722 Blue 8
10 AM Sun 86 90 E 5 8 4402 3886 3304 Blue 14
11 AM Sun 91 97 WNW 5 8 11714 8360 7778 Blue 21
12 Noon Sun 94 101 WNW 5 8 12968 12260 11678 White 25
1 PM Sun 96 103 WNW 5 8 13366 13366 12784 White 27
2 PM Sun 97 104 WNW 4 5 13562 13562 12980 White 28
3 PM Sun 97 103 WNW 4 5 13366 13366 12784 White 27
4 PM Sun 97 102 WNW 4 5 13167 12877 12295 White 26
5 PM Sun 96 99 NNW 4 5 12567 10185 9603 White 23
6 PM Sun 94 96 NNW 4 5 10271 7977 7395 Blue 20
7 PM Sun 91 91 NNW 4 5 4706 4007 3425 Blue 15
8 PM Sun 87 87 NE 3 4 3896 3521 2939 Blue 11
9 PM Sun 83 83 NE 3 4 3438 3239 2657 Blue 7
10 PM Sun 79 79 NE 3 4 3178 2430 1848 Blue 3
11 PM Sun 76 76 E 8 10 2435 2388 1806 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 75 75 E 8 10 0 582 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 73 73 E 8 10 0 582 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 72 72 ESE 4 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 71 71 ESE 4 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 69 69 ESE 4 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 69 69 E 5 9 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 70 70 E 5 9 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 72 72 E 5 9 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 76 77 E 4 8 2568 2388 1806 Blue 1
9 AM Mon 82 85 E 4 8 3651 3369 2787 Blue 9
10 AM Mon 87 91 E 4 8 4706 4007 3425 Blue 15
11 AM Mon 91 96 W 4 8 10271 7977 7395 Blue 20
12 Noon Mon 93 99 W 4 8 12567 10185 9603 White 23
1 PM Mon 94 101 W 4 8 12968 12260 11678 White 25
2 PM Mon 94 100 W 5 10 12767 11414 10832 White 24
3 PM Mon 95 100 W 5 10 12767 11414 10832 White 24
4 PM Mon 95 99 W 5 10 12567 10185 9603 White 23
5 PM Mon 94 97 W 6 10 11714 8360 7778 Blue 21
6 PM Mon 92 93 W 6 10 8152 4382 3800 Blue 17
7 PM Mon 89 89 W 6 10 4199 3764 3182 Blue 13
8 PM Mon 85 85 W 5 8 3651 3369 2787 Blue 9
9 PM Mon 80 80 W 5 8 3243 2562 1980 Blue 4
10 PM Mon 76 76 W 5 8 2435 2388 1806 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]