Detailed Predictions for: Blanchard
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 48.6097, -122.426, 396
LZ Altitude (f): 10
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

23 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 58 58 SE 9 11 0 396 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 58 58 SE 9 11 0 396 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 57 57 SSE 9 11 0 396 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 56 56 SSE 9 11 0 396 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 56 56 SSE 9 11 0 396 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 55 55 SE 5 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 56 56 SE 5 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 57 57 SE 5 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 59 60 SSW 3 4 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 62 63 SSW 3 4 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 62 64 SSW 3 4 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 66 70 SW 4 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 69 73 SW 4 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 69 74 SW 4 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 70 75 SW 3 4 0 396 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 73 77 SW 3 4 0 396 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 72 75 SW 3 4 0 396 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 72 75 WSW 3 4 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 73 74 WSW 3 4 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 71 71 WSW 3 4 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 69 69 ESE 6 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 65 65 ESE 6 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 62 62 ESE 6 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 61 61 ESE 8 10 0 396 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 59 59 ESE 8 10 0 396 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 59 59 ESE 8 10 0 396 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 58 58 ESE 5 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 57 57 ESE 5 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 57 57 ESE 5 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 57 57 SE 6 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 56 56 SE 6 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 59 59 SE 6 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 61 62 SSE 5 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 64 65 SSE 5 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 66 68 SSE 5 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 68 71 WNW 8 10 0 396 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 69 73 WNW 8 10 0 396 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 70 74 WNW 8 10 0 396 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 72 77 NW 9 11 0 396 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 73 78 NW 9 11 0 396 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 74 78 NW 9 11 0 396 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 75 77 WSW 3 4 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 75 76 WSW 3 4 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 74 74 WSW 3 4 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 72 72 SE 5 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 69 69 SE 5 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 65 65 SE 5 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 63 63 ESE 6 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 61 61 ESE 6 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 61 61 ESE 6 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 60 60 ESE 5 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 60 60 ESE 5 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 59 59 ESE 5 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 59 59 NNE 4 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 61 61 NNE 4 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 63 63 NNE 4 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 66 67 NNW 10 13 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 69 71 NNW 10 13 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 71 75 NNW 10 13 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 74 79 NNW 11 14 0 396 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 76 82 NNW 11 14 0 396 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 79 86 NNW 11 14 3166 2408 2012 Blue 3
2 PM Fri 81 88 NNW 9 11 3294 3078 2682 Blue 5
3 PM Fri 82 88 NNW 9 11 3294 3078 2682 Blue 5
4 PM Fri 83 88 NNW 9 11 3294 3078 2682 Blue 5
5 PM Fri 83 86 NNW 8 10 3166 2408 2012 Blue 3
6 PM Fri 83 85 NNW 8 10 3102 2388 1992 Blue 2
7 PM Fri 81 81 NNW 8 10 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 79 79 N 4 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 76 76 N 4 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 72 72 N 4 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 68 68 ESE 3 4 0 396 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 66 66 ESE 3 4 0 396 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 65 65 ESE 3 4 0 396 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 64 64 E 3 4 0 396 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 64 64 E 3 4 0 396 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 63 63 E 3 4 0 396 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 63 63 ENE 2 4 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 64 64 ENE 2 4 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 66 66 ENE 2 4 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 69 70 NNW 3 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 72 75 NNW 3 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 76 80 NNW 3 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 79 85 NW 4 8 3102 2388 1992 Blue 2
12 Noon Sat 82 89 NW 4 8 3359 3159 2763 Blue 6
1 PM Sat 85 92 NW 4 8 3619 3352 2956 Blue 9
2 PM Sat 86 93 WNW 5 10 3739 3416 3020 Blue 10
3 PM Sat 88 94 WNW 5 10 3859 3485 3089 Blue 11
4 PM Sat 90 95 WNW 5 10 3979 3605 3209 Blue 12
5 PM Sat 90 93 NW 5 8 3739 3416 3020 Blue 10
6 PM Sat 89 91 NW 5 8 3498 3288 2892 Blue 8
7 PM Sat 87 88 NW 5 8 3294 3078 2682 Blue 5
8 PM Sat 84 84 NW 4 8 2549 2388 1992 Blue 1
9 PM Sat 81 81 NW 4 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 77 77 NW 4 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 74 74 SW 3 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 72 72 SW 3 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 70 70 SW 3 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 69 69 E 2 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 68 68 E 2 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 67 67 E 2 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 67 67 E 3 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 68 68 E 3 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 71 71 E 3 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 74 75 S 3 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 78 81 S 3 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 81 85 S 3 6 3102 2388 1992 Blue 2
11 AM Sun 84 90 W 4 8 3423 3223 2827 Blue 7
12 Noon Sun 86 93 W 4 8 3739 3416 3020 Blue 10
1 PM Sun 88 95 W 4 8 3979 3605 3209 Blue 12
2 PM Sun 90 97 NW 8 10 4331 3844 3448 Blue 14
3 PM Sun 91 97 NW 8 10 4331 3844 3448 Blue 14
4 PM Sun 92 97 NW 8 10 4331 3844 3448 Blue 14
5 PM Sun 92 95 NNW 9 11 3979 3605 3209 Blue 12
6 PM Sun 91 93 NNW 9 11 3739 3416 3020 Blue 10
7 PM Sun 89 90 NNW 9 11 3423 3223 2827 Blue 7
8 PM Sun 86 86 NW 5 8 3166 2408 2012 Blue 3
9 PM Sun 82 82 NW 5 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 78 78 NW 5 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 74 74 N 4 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 72 72 N 4 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 71 71 N 4 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 70 70 E 3 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 69 69 E 3 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 68 68 E 3 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 68 68 NNE 3 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 69 69 NNE 3 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 70 70 NNE 3 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 73 74 NW 3 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 76 78 NW 3 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 79 83 NW 3 6 2418 2388 1992 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 82 87 WNW 4 9 3230 2538 2142 Blue 4
12 Noon Mon 84 90 WNW 4 9 3423 3223 2827 Blue 7
1 PM Mon 86 93 WNW 4 9 3739 3416 3020 Blue 10
2 PM Mon 88 95 W 5 11 3979 3605 3209 Blue 12
3 PM Mon 89 95 W 5 11 3979 3605 3209 Blue 12
4 PM Mon 89 94 W 5 11 3859 3485 3089 Blue 11
5 PM Mon 89 92 W 5 10 3619 3352 2956 Blue 9
6 PM Mon 87 89 W 5 10 3359 3159 2763 Blue 6
7 PM Mon 85 85 W 5 10 3102 2388 1992 Blue 2
8 PM Mon 82 82 WSW 4 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 78 78 WSW 4 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 75 75 WSW 4 9 0 396 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]