Detailed Predictions for: Blanchard
Launch Altitude (f): 396
LZ Altitude (f): 10
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

24 NOV 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Tue 43 43 SE 16 0 396 0 White 0
5 AM Tue 42 42 SE 15 0 396 0 White 0
6 AM Tue 44 44 SE 16 0 396 0 White 0
7 AM Tue 43 43 SE 15 0 396 0 White 0
8 AM Tue 43 43 SE 17 0 396 0 White 0
9 AM Tue 44 44 SE 17 0 396 0 White 0
10 AM Tue 46 46 SE 21 0 396 0 White 0
11 AM Tue 48 48 SE 21 0 396 0 White 0
12 Noon Tue 47 47 SE 21 0 396 0 White 0
1 PM Tue 48 48 SE 20 0 396 0 White 0
2 PM Tue 49 49 SE 21 0 396 0 White 0
3 PM Tue 48 48 SE 16 0 396 0 White 0
4 PM Tue 47 47 S 16 0 396 0 White 0
5 PM Tue 47 47 W 13 0 396 0 White 0
6 PM Tue 45 45 W 10 0 396 0 White 0
7 PM Tue 44 44 W 8 0 396 0 White 0
8 PM Tue 43 43 W 9 0 396 0 White 0
9 PM Tue 43 43 W 5 0 396 0 White 0
10 PM Tue 43 43 SW 6 0 396 0 White 0
11 PM Tue 42 42 W 7 0 396 0 White 0
12 Midnight Wed 42 42 W 7 0 396 0 White 0
1 AM Wed 42 42 SW 3 0 396 0 White 0
2 AM Wed 41 41 W 2 0 396 0 White 0
3 AM Wed 41 41 S 5 0 396 0 White 0
4 AM Wed 41 41 SW 8 0 396 0 White 0
5 AM Wed 40 40 SW 7 0 396 0 White 0
6 AM Wed 41 41 S 7 0 396 0 White 0
7 AM Wed 41 41 S 8 0 396 0 White 0
8 AM Wed 41 41 S 8 0 396 0 White 0
9 AM Wed 41 41 SE 8 0 396 0 White 0
10 AM Wed 42 42 SE 6 0 396 0 White 0
11 AM Wed 43 43 SE 6 0 396 0 White 0
12 Noon Wed 44 44 SE 6 0 396 0 White 0
1 PM Wed 45 45 SE 3 0 396 0 White 0
2 PM Wed 45 45 SE 3 0 396 0 White 0
3 PM Wed 45 45 SE 3 0 396 0 White 0
4 PM Wed 45 45 N 1 0 396 0 White 0
5 PM Wed 44 44 N 1 0 396 0 White 0
6 PM Wed 44 44 N 1 0 396 0 White 0
7 PM Wed 43 43 N 6 0 396 0 White 0
8 PM Wed 43 43 N 6 0 396 0 White 0
9 PM Wed 42 42 N 6 0 396 0 White 0
10 PM Wed 42 42 E 1 0 396 0 White 0
11 PM Wed 42 42 E 1 0 396 0 White 0
12 Midnight Thu 42 42 E 1 0 396 0 White 0
1 AM Thu 42 42 SE 3 0 396 0 White 0
2 AM Thu 42 42 SE 3 0 396 0 White 0
3 AM Thu 41 41 SE 3 0 396 0 White 0
4 AM Thu 41 41 SE 6 0 396 0 White 0
5 AM Thu 41 41 SE 6 0 396 0 White 0
6 AM Thu 40 40 SE 6 0 396 0 White 0
7 AM Thu 40 40 SE 7 0 396 0 White 0
8 AM Thu 40 40 SE 7 0 396 0 White 0
9 AM Thu 41 41 SE 7 0 396 0 White 0
10 AM Thu 42 42 SE 8 0 396 0 White 0
11 AM Thu 43 43 SE 8 0 396 0 White 0
12 Noon Thu 44 44 SE 8 0 396 0 White 0
1 PM Thu 45 45 S 9 0 396 0 White 0
2 PM Thu 45 45 S 9 0 396 0 White 0
3 PM Thu 45 45 S 9 0 396 0 White 0
4 PM Thu 44 44 SE 9 0 396 0 White 0
5 PM Thu 44 44 SE 9 0 396 0 White 0
6 PM Thu 43 43 SE 9 0 396 0 White 0
7 PM Thu 43 43 SE 14 0 396 0 White 0
8 PM Thu 43 43 SE 14 0 396 0 White 0
9 PM Thu 43 43 SE 14 0 396 0 White 0
10 PM Thu 43 43 SE 14 0 396 0 White 0
11 PM Thu 43 43 SE 14 0 396 0 White 0
12 Midnight Fri 42 42 SE 14 0 396 0 White 0
1 AM Fri 42 42 SE 13 0 396 0 White 0
2 AM Fri 42 42 SE 13 0 396 0 White 0
3 AM Fri 42 42 SE 13 0 396 0 White 0
4 AM Fri 42 42 SE 7 0 396 0 White 0
5 AM Fri 41 41 SE 7 0 396 0 White 0
6 AM Fri 41 41 SE 7 0 396 0 White 0
7 AM Fri 41 41 SE 7 0 396 0 White 0
8 AM Fri 41 41 SE 7 0 396 0 White 0
9 AM Fri 42 42 SE 7 0 396 0 White 0
10 AM Fri 43 43 SE 8 0 396 0 White 0
11 AM Fri 44 44 SE 8 0 396 0 White 0
12 Noon Fri 46 46 SE 8 0 396 0 White 0
1 PM Fri 47 47 SE 7 0 396 0 White 0
2 PM Fri 47 47 SE 7 0 396 0 White 0
3 PM Fri 47 47 SE 7 0 396 0 White 0
4 PM Fri 46 46 SE 7 0 396 0 White 0
5 PM Fri 45 45 SE 7 0 396 0 White 0
6 PM Fri 45 45 SE 7 0 396 0 White 0
7 PM Fri 44 44 SE 9 0 396 0 White 0
8 PM Fri 44 44 SE 9 0 396 0 White 0
9 PM Fri 43 43 SE 9 0 396 0 White 0
10 PM Fri 43 43 SE 9 0 396 0 White 0
11 PM Fri 43 43 SE 9 0 396 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sat 42 42 SE 9 0 396 0 White 0
1 AM Sat 42 42 S 8 0 396 0 White 0
2 AM Sat 42 42 S 8 0 396 0 White 0
3 AM Sat 42 42 S 8 0 396 0 White 0
4 AM Sat 42 42 S 7 0 396 0 White 0
5 AM Sat 42 42 S 7 0 396 0 White 0
6 AM Sat 41 41 S 7 0 396 0 White 0
7 AM Sat 41 41 SE 5 0 396 0 White 0
8 AM Sat 41 41 SE 5 0 396 0 White 0
9 AM Sat 41 41 SE 5 0 396 0 White 0
10 AM Sat 42 42 SE 5 0 396 0 White 0
11 AM Sat 43 43 SE 5 0 396 0 White 0
12 Noon Sat 44 44 SE 5 0 396 0 White 0
1 PM Sat 45 45 E 3 0 396 0 White 0
2 PM Sat 45 45 E 3 0 396 0 White 0
3 PM Sat 45 45 E 3 0 396 0 White 0
4 PM Sat 44 44 NE 3 0 396 0 White 0
5 PM Sat 43 43 NE 3 0 396 0 White 0
6 PM Sat 42 42 NE 3 0 396 0 White 0
7 PM Sat 41 41 E 5 0 396 0 White 0
8 PM Sat 40 40 E 5 0 396 0 White 0
9 PM Sat 40 40 E 5 0 396 0 White 0
10 PM Sat 39 39 E 5 0 396 0 White 0
11 PM Sat 39 39 E 5 0 396 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sun 38 38 E 5 0 396 0 White 0
1 AM Sun 38 38 E 5 0 396 0 White 0
2 AM Sun 38 38 E 5 0 396 0 White 0
3 AM Sun 38 38 E 5 0 396 0 White 0
4 AM Sun 38 38 E 5 0 396 0 White 0
5 AM Sun 38 38 E 5 0 396 0 White 0
6 AM Sun 37 37 E 5 0 396 0 White 0
7 AM Sun 37 37 E 5 0 396 0 White 0
8 AM Sun 38 38 E 5 0 396 0 White 0
9 AM Sun 39 39 E 5 0 396 0 White 0
10 AM Sun 40 40 E 6 0 396 0 White 0
11 AM Sun 42 42 E 6 0 396 0 White 0
12 Noon Sun 44 44 E 6 0 396 0 White 0
1 PM Sun 45 45 SE 6 0 396 0 White 0
2 PM Sun 45 45 SE 6 0 396 0 White 0
3 PM Sun 45 45 SE 6 0 396 0 White 0
4 PM Sun 44 44 SE 7 0 396 0 White 0
5 PM Sun 44 44 SE 7 0 396 0 White 0
6 PM Sun 43 43 SE 7 0 396 0 White 0
7 PM Sun 43 43 SE 8 0 396 0 White 0
8 PM Sun 42 42 SE 8 0 396 0 White 0
9 PM Sun 41 41 SE 8 0 396 0 White 0
10 PM Sun 41 41 SE 9 0 396 0 White 0
11 PM Sun 41 41 SE 9 0 396 0 White 0
12 Midnight Mon 42 42 SE 9 0 396 0 White 0
1 AM Mon 42 42 SE 9 0 396 0 White 0
2 AM Mon 42 42 SE 9 0 396 0 White 0
3 AM Mon 41 41 SE 9 0 396 0 White 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]