Detailed Predictions for: Fort Ebey
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 48.2147, -122.759, 251
LZ Altitude (f): 66
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

23 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 54 54 W 14 18 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 56 56 W 14 18 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 54 54 WSW 12 16 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 54 54 WSW 12 16 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 54 54 WSW 12 16 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 53 53 SW 4 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 53 53 SW 4 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 54 54 SW 4 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 56 56 SSE 2 3 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 57 57 SSE 2 3 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 58 58 SSE 2 3 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 60 63 SSE 5 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 62 65 SSE 5 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 64 67 SSE 5 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 65 71 S 5 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 65 70 S 5 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 65 69 S 5 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 64 67 W 6 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 62 63 W 6 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 61 61 W 6 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 60 60 W 17 23 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 58 58 W 17 23 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 55 55 W 17 23 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 55 55 WSW 17 23 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 55 55 WSW 17 23 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 57 57 WSW 17 23 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 55 55 WSW 13 18 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 55 55 WSW 13 18 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 55 55 WSW 13 18 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 54 54 SSW 6 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 55 55 SSW 6 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 56 56 SSW 6 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 57 57 SSE 3 4 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 58 59 SSE 3 4 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 59 61 SSE 3 4 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 60 63 NW 5 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 62 66 NW 5 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 63 67 NW 5 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 64 69 WNW 8 10 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 64 68 WNW 8 10 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 64 67 WNW 8 10 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 64 66 W 6 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 63 64 W 6 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 62 62 W 6 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 61 61 W 10 13 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 60 60 W 10 13 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 58 58 W 10 13 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 57 57 W 8 10 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 57 57 W 8 10 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 57 57 W 8 10 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 57 57 WNW 6 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 57 57 WNW 6 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 57 57 WNW 6 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 57 57 WNW 10 13 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 58 58 WNW 10 13 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 60 60 WNW 10 13 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 61 62 WNW 9 11 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 62 64 WNW 9 11 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 63 66 WNW 9 11 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 64 69 WNW 9 11 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 65 71 WNW 9 11 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 67 74 WNW 9 11 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 69 76 WNW 6 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 71 77 WNW 6 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 72 77 WNW 6 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 72 75 WNW 8 10 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 70 72 WNW 8 10 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 68 69 WNW 8 10 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 66 66 NW 4 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 64 64 NW 4 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 63 63 NW 4 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 63 63 W 2 3 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 63 63 W 2 3 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 63 63 W 2 3 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 63 63 NNW 6 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 62 62 NNW 6 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 61 61 NNW 6 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 60 60 NNW 4 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 61 61 NNW 4 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 63 63 NNW 4 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 65 66 NW 4 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 66 68 NW 4 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 68 72 NW 4 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 69 75 NW 6 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 71 78 NW 6 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 73 81 NW 6 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 75 82 NW 6 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 76 82 NW 6 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 77 82 NW 6 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 77 80 WNW 9 11 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 76 78 WNW 9 11 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 74 75 WNW 9 11 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 72 72 WNW 8 11 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 70 70 WNW 8 11 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 67 67 WNW 8 11 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 65 65 WNW 6 10 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 64 64 WNW 6 10 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 63 63 WNW 6 10 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 63 63 W 4 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 63 63 W 4 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 63 63 W 4 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 63 63 W 4 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 64 64 W 4 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 66 66 W 4 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 67 68 NW 5 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 69 71 NW 5 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 70 74 NW 5 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 71 77 NW 5 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 73 80 NW 5 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 75 83 NW 5 6 2418 2388 2137 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 76 83 WNW 6 9 2418 2388 2137 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 78 84 WNW 6 9 2549 2388 2137 Blue 1
4 PM Sun 79 84 WNW 6 9 2549 2388 2137 Blue 1
5 PM Sun 79 82 W 10 13 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 77 79 W 10 13 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 75 76 W 10 13 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 72 72 WNW 11 14 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 70 70 WNW 11 14 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 68 68 WNW 11 14 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 67 67 WNW 9 11 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 66 66 WNW 9 11 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 66 66 WNW 9 11 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 65 65 WNW 5 10 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 65 65 WNW 5 10 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 64 64 WNW 5 10 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 64 64 WNW 5 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 65 65 WNW 5 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 66 66 WNW 5 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 67 68 WNW 5 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 68 70 WNW 5 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 69 72 WNW 5 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 70 75 WNW 6 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 72 78 WNW 6 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 74 80 WNW 6 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 76 83 WNW 6 10 2418 2388 2137 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 77 83 WNW 6 10 2418 2388 2137 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 77 82 WNW 6 10 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 76 79 WNW 9 13 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 74 76 WNW 9 13 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 72 72 WNW 9 13 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 69 69 W 9 13 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 67 67 W 9 13 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 64 64 W 9 13 0 251 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]