Detailed Predictions for: Jupiter Ridge
Launch Altitude (f): 2044
LZ Altitude (f): 120
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

19 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 43 43 N 5 1772 2044 0 White 0
6 AM Sat 43 43 N 5 1772 2044 0 White 0
7 AM Sat 43 43 N 5 1772 2044 0 White 0
8 AM Sat 43 43 NE 5 1772 2044 0 White 0
9 AM Sat 44 44 NE 5 1772 2044 0 White 0
10 AM Sat 45 45 NE 5 1772 2044 0 White 0
11 AM Sat 47 47 SE 5 1772 2044 0 White 0
12 Noon Sat 48 48 SE 5 1772 2044 0 White 0
1 PM Sat 49 49 SE 5 1772 2044 0 White 0
2 PM Sat 49 49 E 3 1772 2044 0 White 0
3 PM Sat 49 49 E 3 1772 2044 0 White 0
4 PM Sat 49 49 E 3 1772 2044 0 White 0
5 PM Sat 48 48 NW 2 1772 2044 0 White 0
6 PM Sat 47 47 NW 2 1772 2044 0 White 0
7 PM Sat 45 45 NW 2 1772 2044 0 White 0
8 PM Sat 44 44 NW 3 1772 2044 0 White 0
9 PM Sat 44 44 NW 3 1772 2044 0 White 0
10 PM Sat 43 43 NW 3 1772 2044 0 White 0
11 PM Sat 42 42 NW 7 1772 2044 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sun 42 42 NW 7 1772 2044 0 White 0
1 AM Sun 42 42 NW 7 1772 2044 0 White 0
2 AM Sun 42 42 N 6 1772 2044 0 White 0
3 AM Sun 41 41 N 6 0 2044 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 41 41 N 6 0 2044 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 41 41 W 7 0 2044 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 42 42 W 7 1772 2044 0 White 0
7 AM Sun 42 42 W 7 1772 2044 0 White 0
8 AM Sun 41 41 S 7 0 2044 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 43 43 S 7 1772 2044 0 White 0
10 AM Sun 44 44 S 7 1772 2044 0 White 0
11 AM Sun 46 46 S 10 1772 2044 0 White 0
12 Noon Sun 48 48 S 10 1772 2044 0 White 0
1 PM Sun 49 49 S 10 1772 2044 0 White 0
2 PM Sun 49 49 S 9 1772 2044 0 White 0
3 PM Sun 50 50 S 9 1776 2044 0 White 0
4 PM Sun 50 50 S 9 1776 2044 0 White 0
5 PM Sun 50 50 S 7 1776 2044 0 White 0
6 PM Sun 49 49 S 7 1772 2044 0 White 0
7 PM Sun 47 47 S 7 1772 2044 0 White 0
8 PM Sun 47 47 NW 5 1772 2044 0 White 0
9 PM Sun 46 46 NW 5 1772 2044 0 White 0
10 PM Sun 46 46 NW 5 1772 2044 0 White 0
11 PM Sun 46 46 NW 6 1772 2044 0 White 0
12 Midnight Mon 46 46 NW 6 1772 2044 0 White 0
1 AM Mon 46 46 NW 6 1772 2044 0 White 0
2 AM Mon 45 45 W 6 1772 2044 0 White 0
3 AM Mon 45 45 W 6 1772 2044 0 White 0
4 AM Mon 45 45 W 6 1772 2044 0 White 0
5 AM Mon 45 45 SW 7 1772 2044 0 White 0
6 AM Mon 46 46 SW 7 1772 2044 0 White 0
7 AM Mon 46 46 SW 7 1772 2044 0 White 0
8 AM Mon 45 45 S 13 1772 2044 0 White 0
9 AM Mon 47 47 S 13 1772 2044 0 White 0
10 AM Mon 48 48 S 13 1772 2044 0 White 0
11 AM Mon 50 50 S 16 1776 2044 0 White 0
12 Noon Mon 52 52 S 16 2209 2209 165 White 0
1 PM Mon 52 52 S 16 2209 2209 165 White 0
2 PM Mon 52 52 S 14 2209 2209 165 White 0
3 PM Mon 53 53 S 14 2425 2425 381 White 8
4 PM Mon 53 53 S 14 2425 2425 381 White 8
5 PM Mon 53 53 S 8 2425 2425 381 White 8
6 PM Mon 52 52 S 8 2209 2209 165 White 0
7 PM Mon 50 50 S 8 1776 2044 0 White 0
8 PM Mon 50 50 S 10 1776 2044 0 White 0
9 PM Mon 49 49 S 10 1772 2044 0 White 0
10 PM Mon 49 49 S 10 1772 2044 0 White 0
11 PM Mon 49 49 S 7 1772 2044 0 White 0
12 Midnight Tue 49 49 S 7 1772 2044 0 White 0
1 AM Tue 49 49 S 7 1772 2044 0 White 0
2 AM Tue 48 48 SW 10 1772 2044 0 White 0
3 AM Tue 48 48 SW 10 1772 2044 0 White 0
4 AM Tue 48 48 SW 10 1772 2044 0 White 0
5 AM Tue 48 48 NE 3 1772 2044 0 White 0
6 AM Tue 48 48 NE 3 1772 2044 0 White 0
7 AM Tue 48 48 NE 3 1772 2044 0 White 0
8 AM Tue 48 48 NE 3 1772 2044 0 White 0
9 AM Tue 49 49 NE 3 1772 2044 0 White 0
10 AM Tue 50 50 NE 3 1776 2044 0 White 0
11 AM Tue 52 52 S 3 2209 2209 165 White 0
12 Noon Tue 53 53 S 3 2425 2425 381 White 8
1 PM Tue 54 54 S 3 2643 2643 599 White 9
2 PM Tue 54 54 S 3 2643 2643 599 White 9
3 PM Tue 54 54 S 3 2643 2643 599 White 9
4 PM Tue 53 53 S 3 2425 2425 381 White 8
5 PM Tue 52 52 W 5 2209 2209 165 White 0
6 PM Tue 50 50 W 5 1776 2044 0 White 0
7 PM Tue 49 49 W 5 1772 2044 0 White 0
8 PM Tue 47 47 W 5 1772 2044 0 White 0
9 PM Tue 46 46 W 5 1772 2044 0 White 0
10 PM Tue 46 46 W 5 1772 2044 0 White 0
11 PM Tue 46 46 NW 5 1772 2044 0 White 0
12 Midnight Wed 46 46 NW 5 1772 2044 0 White 0
1 AM Wed 45 45 NW 5 1772 2044 0 White 0
2 AM Wed 45 45 NW 5 1772 2044 0 White 0
3 AM Wed 44 44 NW 5 1772 2044 0 White 0
4 AM Wed 44 44 NW 5 1772 2044 0 White 0
5 AM Wed 43 43 NW 6 1772 2044 0 White 0
6 AM Wed 42 42 NW 6 1772 2044 0 White 0
7 AM Wed 42 42 NW 6 1772 2044 0 White 0
8 AM Wed 42 42 NW 6 1772 2044 0 White 0
9 AM Wed 43 43 NW 6 1772 2044 0 White 0
10 AM Wed 45 45 NW 6 1772 2044 0 White 0
11 AM Wed 47 47 E 6 1772 2044 0 White 0
12 Noon Wed 48 48 E 6 1772 2044 0 White 0
1 PM Wed 49 50 E 6 1776 2044 0 White 0
2 PM Wed 49 49 E 6 1772 2044 0 White 0
3 PM Wed 49 49 E 6 1772 2044 0 White 0
4 PM Wed 50 50 E 6 1776 2044 0 White 0
5 PM Wed 49 49 N 3 1772 2044 0 White 0
6 PM Wed 48 48 N 3 1772 2044 0 White 0
7 PM Wed 46 46 N 3 1772 2044 0 White 0
8 PM Wed 44 44 N 3 1772 2044 0 White 0
9 PM Wed 43 43 N 3 1772 2044 0 White 0
10 PM Wed 42 42 N 3 1772 2044 0 White 0
11 PM Wed 41 41 NW 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 41 41 NW 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 41 41 NW 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 41 41 NW 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 41 41 NW 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 40 40 NW 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 40 40 N 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 39 39 N 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 39 39 N 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 39 39 N 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 41 41 N 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 44 44 N 5 1772 2044 0 White 0
11 AM Thu 46 46 N 6 1772 2044 0 White 0
12 Noon Thu 47 48 N 6 1772 2044 0 White 0
1 PM Thu 48 49 N 6 1772 2044 0 White 0
2 PM Thu 49 50 N 6 1776 2044 0 White 0
3 PM Thu 50 50 N 6 1776 2044 0 White 0
4 PM Thu 50 50 N 6 1776 2044 0 White 0
5 PM Thu 49 49 N 3 1772 2044 0 White 0
6 PM Thu 48 48 N 3 1772 2044 0 White 0
7 PM Thu 46 46 N 3 1772 2044 0 White 0
8 PM Thu 44 44 N 3 1772 2044 0 White 0
9 PM Thu 43 43 N 3 1772 2044 0 White 0
10 PM Thu 42 42 N 3 1772 2044 0 White 0
11 PM Thu 42 42 N 5 1772 2044 0 White 0
12 Midnight Fri 42 42 N 5 1772 2044 0 White 0
1 AM Fri 42 42 N 5 1772 2044 0 White 0
2 AM Fri 42 42 N 5 1772 2044 0 White 0
3 AM Fri 42 42 N 5 1772 2044 0 White 0
4 AM Fri 42 42 N 5 1772 2044 0 White 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]