Detailed Predictions for: Jupiter Ridge
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 47.68437 , -122.96199, 2044
LZ Altitude (f): 120
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

23 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 61 61 WSW 0 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 55 55 SW 0 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 49 49 SW 1 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 48 48 SW 1 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 48 48 SW 1 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 47 47 SSW 1 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 52 52 SSW 2 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 56 56 S 2 4 0 2044 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 60 61 SSE 3 4 0 2044 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 63 65 SSE 4 4 0 2044 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 66 70 SSE 4 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 70 76 SE 5 5 3288 3011 967 Blue 5
12 Noon Wed 72 79 SE 5 5 3496 3286 1242 Blue 8
1 PM Wed 75 82 SE 5 5 3867 3491 1447 Blue 11
2 PM Wed 77 84 SE 5 5 4155 3737 1693 Blue 13
3 PM Wed 78 84 ESE 4 5 4155 3737 1693 Blue 13
4 PM Wed 79 83 ESE 4 5 3990 3614 1570 Blue 12
5 PM Wed 79 82 E 4 5 3867 3491 1447 Blue 11
6 PM Wed 77 78 ESE 3 4 3420 3220 1176 Blue 7
7 PM Wed 74 74 ESE 2 3 3157 2388 344 Blue 3
8 PM Wed 72 72 ESE 1 2 2522 2388 344 Blue 1
9 PM Wed 71 71 SSE 2 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 70 70 SSW 2 4 0 2044 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 68 68 SW 2 4 0 2044 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 62 62 WSW 2 4 0 2044 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 56 56 WNW 1 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 50 50 NW 1 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 50 50 WNW 1 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 49 49 W 1 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 49 49 W 1 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 53 53 SW 2 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 58 58 S 2 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 63 64 SE 2 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 66 69 SE 3 4 0 2044 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 69 73 ESE 4 4 3032 2388 344 Blue 2
11 AM Thu 72 78 ESE 4 5 3420 3220 1176 Blue 7
12 Noon Thu 75 81 ESE 4 5 3743 3417 1373 Blue 10
1 PM Thu 77 84 ESE 4 5 4155 3737 1693 Blue 13
2 PM Thu 79 85 ESE 5 5 4360 3860 1816 Blue 14
3 PM Thu 79 84 E 4 5 4155 3737 1693 Blue 13
4 PM Thu 79 83 E 4 5 3990 3614 1570 Blue 12
5 PM Thu 79 81 ENE 4 5 3743 3417 1373 Blue 10
6 PM Thu 77 78 ENE 4 5 3420 3220 1176 Blue 7
7 PM Thu 74 74 ENE 3 4 3157 2388 344 Blue 3
8 PM Thu 72 72 ENE 3 4 2522 2388 344 Blue 1
9 PM Thu 70 70 SE 3 4 0 2044 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 69 69 SW 2 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 68 68 WNW 2 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 64 64 WNW 2 4 0 2044 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 59 59 WNW 2 4 0 2044 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 55 55 WNW 1 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 54 54 NW 2 4 0 2044 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 54 54 NW 2 4 0 2044 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 53 53 NW 2 4 0 2044 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 59 59 SW 2 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 64 64 SSE 2 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 70 71 ENE 2 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 73 76 ENE 2 3 3288 3011 967 Blue 5
10 AM Fri 77 81 ENE 4 4 3743 3417 1373 Blue 10
11 AM Fri 80 86 ENE 4 5 4565 3983 1939 Blue 15
12 Noon Fri 82 89 ENE 5 6 8390 4549 2505 Blue 18
1 PM Fri 85 93 ENE 5 6 11820 8605 6561 White 22
2 PM Fri 87 94 ENE 6 7 12025 10170 8126 White 23
3 PM Fri 88 94 ENE 6 6 12025 10170 8126 White 23
4 PM Fri 89 94 ENE 6 6 12025 10170 8126 White 23
5 PM Fri 89 92 NE 5 6 11614 8336 6292 White 21
6 PM Fri 87 89 ENE 4 5 8390 4549 2505 Blue 18
7 PM Fri 84 84 ENE 3 5 4155 3737 1693 Blue 13
8 PM Fri 82 82 E 2 4 3867 3491 1447 Blue 11
9 PM Fri 80 80 SSE 2 5 3620 3352 1308 Blue 9
10 PM Fri 77 77 SW 2 6 3354 3155 1111 Blue 6
11 PM Fri 75 75 NW 3 6 3223 2520 476 Blue 4

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]