Detailed Predictions for: Saddle Mt
Launch Altitude (f): 2350
LZ Altitude (f): 506
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

19 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 44 44 S 10 2067 2350 0 White 0
6 AM Sat 42 42 SW 9 2067 2350 0 White 0
7 AM Sat 41 41 W 9 0 2350 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 41 41 W 9 0 2350 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 43 43 W 10 2067 2350 0 White 0
10 AM Sat 45 45 W 12 2113 2350 0 White 0
11 AM Sat 49 49 W 14 2994 2994 644 White 5
12 Noon Sat 51 51 W 17 3436 3436 1086 White 7
1 PM Sat 54 54 W 20 4097 4097 1747 White 10
2 PM Sat 56 56 W 22 4536 4536 2186 White 12
3 PM Sat 58 58 W 24 4962 4962 2612 White 14
4 PM Sat 58 58 W 25 4962 4962 2612 White 14
5 PM Sat 57 57 W 25 4750 4750 2400 White 13
6 PM Sat 54 54 W 24 4097 4097 1747 White 10
7 PM Sat 51 51 W 22 3436 3436 1086 White 7
8 PM Sat 48 48 W 20 2773 2773 423 White 4
9 PM Sat 47 47 W 17 2550 2475 125 White 3
10 PM Sat 46 46 W 15 2331 2350 0 White 0
11 PM Sat 46 46 W 14 2331 2350 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sun 45 45 W 13 2113 2350 0 White 0
1 AM Sun 44 44 W 12 2067 2350 0 White 0
2 AM Sun 44 44 W 12 2067 2350 0 White 0
3 AM Sun 43 43 W 12 2067 2350 0 White 0
4 AM Sun 42 42 W 10 2067 2350 0 White 0
5 AM Sun 41 41 W 13 0 2350 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 40 40 W 12 0 2350 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 39 39 W 9 0 2350 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 39 39 W 8 0 2350 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 41 41 SW 9 0 2350 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 44 44 SW 10 2067 2350 0 White 0
11 AM Sun 47 47 SW 12 2550 2475 125 White 3
12 Noon Sun 50 50 SW 10 3215 3215 865 White 6
1 PM Sun 52 52 SW 10 3657 3657 1307 White 8
2 PM Sun 53 53 S 10 3877 3877 1527 White 9
3 PM Sun 52 52 S 10 3657 3657 1307 White 8
4 PM Sun 50 50 S 9 3215 3215 865 White 6
5 PM Sun 48 48 S 8 2773 2773 423 White 4
6 PM Sun 46 46 S 7 2331 2350 0 White 0
7 PM Sun 46 46 SW 6 2331 2350 0 White 0
8 PM Sun 45 45 W 7 2113 2350 0 White 0
9 PM Sun 46 46 W 6 2331 2350 0 White 0
10 PM Sun 46 46 W 7 2331 2350 0 White 0
11 PM Sun 45 45 W 8 2113 2350 0 White 0
12 Midnight Mon 45 45 W 9 2113 2350 0 White 0
1 AM Mon 44 44 W 10 2067 2350 0 White 0
2 AM Mon 43 43 W 13 2067 2350 0 White 0
3 AM Mon 43 43 W 13 2067 2350 0 White 0
4 AM Mon 43 43 W 12 2067 2350 0 White 0
5 AM Mon 43 43 W 12 2067 2350 0 White 0
6 AM Mon 42 42 W 10 2067 2350 0 White 0
7 AM Mon 42 42 W 9 2067 2350 0 White 0
8 AM Mon 43 43 SW 9 2067 2350 0 White 0
9 AM Mon 46 46 SW 8 2331 2350 0 White 0
10 AM Mon 50 50 SW 8 3215 3215 865 White 6
11 AM Mon 54 54 SW 8 4097 4097 1747 White 10
12 Noon Mon 56 56 SW 7 4536 4536 2186 White 12
1 PM Mon 57 57 SW 8 4750 4750 2400 White 13
2 PM Mon 57 57 SW 8 4750 4750 2400 White 13
3 PM Mon 56 56 SW 10 4536 4536 2186 White 12
4 PM Mon 55 55 SW 10 4317 4317 1967 White 11
5 PM Mon 54 54 SW 10 4097 4097 1747 White 10
6 PM Mon 54 54 SW 9 4097 4097 1747 White 10
7 PM Mon 54 54 SW 9 4097 4097 1747 White 10
8 PM Mon 54 54 SW 9 4097 4097 1747 White 10
9 PM Mon 54 54 SW 9 4097 4097 1747 White 10
10 PM Mon 54 54 SW 9 4097 4097 1747 White 10
11 PM Mon 54 54 SW 9 4097 4097 1747 White 10
12 Midnight Tue 53 53 SW 9 3877 3877 1527 White 9
1 AM Tue 52 52 SW 9 3657 3657 1307 White 8
2 AM Tue 51 51 SW 9 3436 3436 1086 White 7
3 AM Tue 50 50 SW 9 3215 3215 865 White 6
4 AM Tue 49 49 SW 10 2994 2994 644 White 5
5 AM Tue 49 49 W 12 2994 2994 644 White 5
6 AM Tue 48 48 W 12 2773 2773 423 White 4
7 AM Tue 48 48 W 12 2773 2773 423 White 4
8 AM Tue 49 49 W 13 2994 2994 644 White 5
9 AM Tue 52 52 W 17 3657 3657 1307 White 8
10 AM Tue 54 54 W 20 4097 4097 1747 White 10
11 AM Tue 57 58 W 21 4962 4962 2612 White 14
12 Noon Tue 60 61 W 22 5597 5597 3247 White 17
1 PM Tue 61 62 W 23 5808 5808 3458 White 18
2 PM Tue 62 63 W 23 6019 6019 3669 White 19
3 PM Tue 62 63 W 24 6019 6019 3669 White 19
4 PM Tue 61 61 W 25 5597 5597 3247 White 17
5 PM Tue 59 59 W 25 5174 5174 2824 White 15
6 PM Tue 57 57 W 25 4750 4750 2400 White 13
7 PM Tue 53 53 W 25 3877 3877 1527 White 9
8 PM Tue 50 50 W 25 3215 3215 865 White 6
9 PM Tue 48 48 W 25 2773 2773 423 White 4
10 PM Tue 46 46 W 25 2331 2350 0 White 0
11 PM Tue 45 45 W 20 2113 2350 0 White 0
12 Midnight Wed 44 44 W 20 2067 2350 0 White 0
1 AM Wed 43 43 W 20 2067 2350 0 White 0
2 AM Wed 43 43 W 20 2067 2350 0 White 0
3 AM Wed 42 42 W 20 2067 2350 0 White 0
4 AM Wed 42 42 W 20 2067 2350 0 White 0
5 AM Wed 42 42 NW 13 2067 2350 0 White 0
6 AM Wed 41 41 NW 13 0 2350 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 40 40 NW 13 0 2350 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 40 40 NW 13 0 2350 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 43 43 NW 13 2067 2350 0 White 0
10 AM Wed 46 46 NW 13 2331 2350 0 White 0
11 AM Wed 50 51 NW 9 3436 3436 1086 White 7
12 Noon Wed 52 54 NW 9 4097 4097 1747 White 10
1 PM Wed 54 56 NW 9 4536 4536 2186 White 12
2 PM Wed 56 57 NW 9 4750 4750 2400 White 13
3 PM Wed 57 58 NW 9 4962 4962 2612 White 14
4 PM Wed 57 57 NW 9 4750 4750 2400 White 13
5 PM Wed 56 56 NW 6 4536 4536 2186 White 12
6 PM Wed 53 53 NW 6 3877 3877 1527 White 9
7 PM Wed 50 50 NW 6 3215 3215 865 White 6
8 PM Wed 47 47 NW 6 2550 2475 125 White 3
9 PM Wed 45 45 NW 6 2113 2350 0 White 0
10 PM Wed 44 44 NW 6 2067 2350 0 White 0
11 PM Wed 43 43 W 6 2067 2350 0 White 0
12 Midnight Thu 41 41 W 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 40 40 W 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 40 40 W 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 39 39 W 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 39 39 W 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 38 38 NW 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 37 37 NW 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 37 37 NW 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 38 38 NW 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 41 41 NW 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 46 47 NW 6 2550 2475 125 White 3
11 AM Thu 50 51 E 5 3436 3436 1086 White 7
12 Noon Thu 53 55 E 5 4317 4317 1967 White 11
1 PM Thu 55 57 E 5 4750 4750 2400 White 13
2 PM Thu 56 57 E 5 4750 4750 2400 White 13
3 PM Thu 56 57 E 5 4750 4750 2400 White 13
4 PM Thu 56 56 E 5 4536 4536 2186 White 12
5 PM Thu 54 54 SE 6 4097 4097 1747 White 10
6 PM Thu 52 52 SE 6 3657 3657 1307 White 8
7 PM Thu 49 49 SE 6 2994 2994 644 White 5
8 PM Thu 46 46 SE 6 2331 2350 0 White 0
9 PM Thu 45 45 SE 6 2113 2350 0 White 0
10 PM Thu 44 44 SE 6 2067 2350 0 White 0
11 PM Thu 43 43 NW 5 2067 2350 0 White 0
12 Midnight Fri 42 42 NW 5 2067 2350 0 White 0
1 AM Fri 41 41 NW 5 0 2350 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 40 40 NW 5 0 2350 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 39 39 NW 5 0 2350 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 39 39 NW 5 0 2350 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]