Detailed Predictions for: Saddle Mt
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 46.8173, -119.8773, 2350
LZ Altitude (f): 506
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

23 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 76 76 W 14 20 3275 2866 516 Blue 5
1 AM Wed 74 74 WNW 13 19 3143 2388 38 Blue 3
2 AM Wed 71 71 WNW 12 17 0 2350 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 69 69 WNW 11 16 0 2350 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 68 68 WNW 11 16 0 2350 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 70 70 WNW 12 17 0 2350 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 68 68 WNW 11 14 0 2350 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 70 70 WNW 10 14 0 2350 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 74 75 WNW 10 13 3209 2493 143 Blue 4
9 AM Wed 77 79 WNW 10 13 3472 3272 922 Blue 8
10 AM Wed 81 85 W 10 14 4317 3834 1484 Blue 14
11 AM Wed 85 90 W 10 14 8604 6392 4042 Blue 19
12 Noon Wed 89 95 W 10 14 12209 11257 8907 White 24
1 PM Wed 91 97 W 10 14 12614 12614 10264 White 26
2 PM Wed 92 97 W 10 17 12614 12614 10264 White 26
3 PM Wed 94 99 W 13 20 13019 13019 10669 White 28
4 PM Wed 95 99 W 14 24 13019 13019 10669 White 28
5 PM Wed 94 97 WNW 17 26 12614 12614 10264 White 26
6 PM Wed 92 93 WNW 20 31 11799 8547 6197 White 22
7 PM Wed 87 87 WNW 23 32 6630 4099 1749 Blue 16
8 PM Wed 84 84 WNW 25 34 4112 3711 1361 Blue 13
9 PM Wed 79 79 WNW 21 31 3472 3272 922 Blue 8
10 PM Wed 75 75 WNW 20 28 3209 2493 143 Blue 4
11 PM Wed 73 73 WNW 18 25 2884 2388 38 Blue 2
12 Midnight Thu 70 70 WNW 14 21 0 2350 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 69 69 WNW 13 19 0 2350 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 67 67 NW 12 17 0 2350 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 65 65 WNW 12 18 0 2350 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 64 64 WNW 12 17 0 2350 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 64 64 WNW 11 16 0 2350 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 65 65 WNW 10 14 0 2350 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 68 68 NW 9 12 0 2350 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 73 74 NW 6 9 3143 2388 38 Blue 3
9 AM Thu 77 80 NW 5 8 3594 3338 988 Blue 9
10 AM Thu 80 84 NW 4 5 4112 3711 1361 Blue 13
11 AM Thu 84 89 NW 3 4 8332 4506 2156 Blue 18
12 Noon Thu 87 93 NW 3 4 11799 8547 6197 White 22
1 PM Thu 90 96 NW 3 4 12412 12114 9764 White 25
2 PM Thu 91 97 NW 3 4 12614 12614 10264 White 26
3 PM Thu 93 98 NW 4 5 12817 12817 10467 White 27
4 PM Thu 94 98 NW 5 8 12817 12817 10467 White 27
5 PM Thu 94 96 NW 6 10 12412 12114 9764 White 25
6 PM Thu 92 93 NW 6 10 11799 8547 6197 White 22
7 PM Thu 88 88 NW 6 10 7836 4302 1952 Blue 17
8 PM Thu 85 85 NW 12 17 4317 3834 1484 Blue 14
9 PM Thu 81 81 NW 12 17 3718 3404 1054 Blue 10
10 PM Thu 78 78 NW 12 17 3407 3207 857 Blue 7
11 PM Thu 76 76 NW 13 19 3275 2866 516 Blue 5
12 Midnight Fri 74 74 NW 13 19 3143 2388 38 Blue 3
1 AM Fri 73 73 NW 13 19 2884 2388 38 Blue 2
2 AM Fri 72 72 NNW 12 18 2495 2388 38 Blue 1
3 AM Fri 71 71 NNW 12 18 0 2350 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 70 70 NNW 12 18 0 2350 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 70 70 NNW 12 18 0 2350 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 72 72 NNW 12 18 2495 2388 38 Blue 1
7 AM Fri 75 75 NNW 12 18 3209 2493 143 Blue 4
8 AM Fri 80 81 N 12 17 3718 3404 1054 Blue 10
9 AM Fri 84 86 N 12 17 4522 3957 1607 Blue 15
10 AM Fri 88 92 N 12 17 11458 8278 5928 Blue 21
11 AM Fri 92 98 NNE 11 16 12817 12817 10467 White 27
12 Noon Fri 94 101 NNE 11 16 13419 13419 11069 White 30
1 PM Fri 96 103 NNE 11 16 13815 13815 11465 White 32
2 PM Fri 98 105 NNE 11 16 14210 14210 11860 White 34
3 PM Fri 99 105 NNE 11 16 14210 14210 11860 White 34
4 PM Fri 99 104 NNE 11 16 14013 14013 11663 White 33
5 PM Fri 99 102 NNE 11 16 13617 13617 11267 White 31
6 PM Fri 98 99 NNE 11 16 13019 13019 10669 White 28
7 PM Fri 96 96 NNE 11 16 12412 12114 9764 White 25
8 PM Fri 93 93 NE 12 17 11799 8547 6197 White 22
9 PM Fri 89 89 NE 12 17 8332 4506 2156 Blue 18
10 PM Fri 85 85 NE 12 17 4317 3834 1484 Blue 14
11 PM Fri 82 82 N 9 13 3841 3470 1120 Blue 11
12 Midnight Sat 80 80 N 9 13 3594 3338 988 Blue 9
1 AM Sat 78 78 N 9 13 3407 3207 857 Blue 7
2 AM Sat 77 77 N 9 13 3341 3141 791 Blue 6
3 AM Sat 74 74 N 9 13 3143 2388 38 Blue 3
4 AM Sat 72 72 N 9 13 2495 2388 38 Blue 1
5 AM Sat 72 72 NNW 10 12 2495 2388 38 Blue 1
6 AM Sat 74 74 NNW 10 12 3143 2388 38 Blue 3
7 AM Sat 78 78 NNW 10 12 3407 3207 857 Blue 7
8 AM Sat 83 85 N 10 14 4317 3834 1484 Blue 14
9 AM Sat 88 91 N 10 14 10184 7637 5287 Blue 20
10 AM Sat 92 97 N 10 14 12614 12614 10264 White 26
11 AM Sat 96 102 NE 11 18 13617 13617 11267 White 31
12 Noon Sat 99 106 NE 11 18 14407 14407 12057 White 35
1 PM Sat 101 109 NE 11 18 14998 14998 12648 White 38
2 PM Sat 103 110 ENE 13 20 15193 15193 12843 White 39
3 PM Sat 104 110 ENE 13 20 15193 15193 12843 White 39
4 PM Sat 105 110 ENE 13 20 15193 15193 12843 White 39
5 PM Sat 105 108 ENE 11 19 14801 14801 12451 White 37
6 PM Sat 103 104 ENE 11 19 14013 14013 11663 White 33
7 PM Sat 100 100 ENE 11 19 13220 13220 10870 White 29
8 PM Sat 96 96 ENE 13 19 12412 12114 9764 White 25
9 PM Sat 92 92 ENE 13 19 11458 8278 5928 Blue 21
10 PM Sat 87 87 ENE 13 19 6630 4099 1749 Blue 16
11 PM Sat 84 84 NNE 13 17 4112 3711 1361 Blue 13
12 Midnight Sun 81 81 NNE 13 17 3718 3404 1054 Blue 10
1 AM Sun 79 79 NNE 13 17 3472 3272 922 Blue 8
2 AM Sun 78 78 N 10 12 3407 3207 857 Blue 7
3 AM Sun 76 76 N 10 12 3275 2866 516 Blue 5
4 AM Sun 74 74 N 10 12 3143 2388 38 Blue 3
5 AM Sun 74 74 N 10 12 3143 2388 38 Blue 3
6 AM Sun 76 76 N 10 12 3275 2866 516 Blue 5
7 AM Sun 79 79 N 10 12 3472 3272 922 Blue 8
8 AM Sun 84 85 NNE 11 17 4317 3834 1484 Blue 14
9 AM Sun 88 91 NNE 11 17 10184 7637 5287 Blue 20
10 AM Sun 93 98 NNE 11 17 12817 12817 10467 White 27
11 AM Sun 98 104 NE 12 20 14013 14013 11663 White 33
12 Noon Sun 101 108 NE 12 20 14801 14801 12451 White 37
1 PM Sun 104 112 NE 12 20 15580 15580 13230 White 41
2 PM Sun 106 113 ENE 11 20 15772 15772 13422 White 42
3 PM Sun 108 114 ENE 11 20 15964 15964 13614 White 43
4 PM Sun 108 113 ENE 11 20 15772 15772 13422 White 42
5 PM Sun 107 110 ENE 10 19 15193 15193 12843 White 39
6 PM Sun 106 107 ENE 10 19 14605 14605 12255 White 36
7 PM Sun 103 103 ENE 10 19 13815 13815 11465 White 32
8 PM Sun 100 100 ENE 12 19 13220 13220 10870 White 29
9 PM Sun 95 95 ENE 12 19 12209 11257 8907 White 24
10 PM Sun 91 91 ENE 12 19 10184 7637 5287 Blue 20
11 PM Sun 87 87 NNW 11 12 6630 4099 1749 Blue 16
12 Midnight Mon 85 85 NNW 11 12 4317 3834 1484 Blue 14
1 AM Mon 82 82 NNW 11 12 3841 3470 1120 Blue 11
2 AM Mon 80 80 NNW 10 10 3594 3338 988 Blue 9
3 AM Mon 78 78 NNW 10 10 3407 3207 857 Blue 7
4 AM Mon 76 76 NNW 10 10 3275 2866 516 Blue 5
5 AM Mon 76 76 NNW 9 10 3275 2866 516 Blue 5
6 AM Mon 78 78 NNW 9 10 3407 3207 857 Blue 7
7 AM Mon 81 81 NNW 9 10 3718 3404 1054 Blue 10
8 AM Mon 86 87 N 10 13 6630 4099 1749 Blue 16
9 AM Mon 91 94 N 10 13 12004 10036 7686 White 23
10 AM Mon 96 101 N 10 13 13419 13419 11069 White 30
11 AM Mon 100 106 NE 9 13 14407 14407 12057 White 35
12 Noon Mon 104 111 NE 9 13 15386 15386 13036 White 40
1 PM Mon 106 114 NE 9 13 15964 15964 13614 White 43
2 PM Mon 108 115 ENE 9 16 16156 16156 13806 White 44
3 PM Mon 110 116 ENE 9 16 16347 16347 13997 White 45
4 PM Mon 110 115 ENE 9 16 16156 16156 13806 White 44
5 PM Mon 109 112 E 9 16 15580 15580 13230 White 41
6 PM Mon 107 108 E 9 16 14801 14801 12451 White 37
7 PM Mon 104 104 E 9 16 14013 14013 11663 White 33
8 PM Mon 101 101 W 10 14 13419 13419 11069 White 30
9 PM Mon 97 97 W 10 14 12614 12614 10264 White 26
10 PM Mon 93 93 W 10 14 11799 8547 6197 White 22

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]