Detailed Predictions for: Saddle Mt
Launch Altitude (f): 2350
LZ Altitude (f): 506
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

2 DEC 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 31 31 N 7 2973 2669 319 Blue 9
5 AM Wed 31 31 N 7 2973 2669 319 Blue 9
6 AM Wed 30 30 N 7 2825 2618 268 Blue 8
7 AM Wed 28 28 N 7 2670 2518 168 Blue 6
8 AM Wed 29 29 N 7 2720 2568 218 Blue 7
9 AM Wed 32 32 N 7 3075 2719 369 Blue 10
10 AM Wed 34 34 N 8 3183 2968 618 Blue 12
11 AM Wed 38 39 N 8 3511 3290 940 Blue 17
12 Noon Wed 39 40 N 8 3861 3344 994 Blue 18
1 PM Wed 40 41 NE 8 4208 3398 1048 Blue 19
2 PM Wed 40 40 NE 8 3861 3344 994 Blue 18
3 PM Wed 39 39 NE 8 3511 3290 940 Blue 17
4 PM Wed 37 37 NE 5 3346 3181 831 Blue 15
5 PM Wed 35 35 N 7 3238 3073 723 Blue 13
6 PM Wed 35 35 N 7 3238 3073 723 Blue 13
7 PM Wed 34 34 N 6 3183 2968 618 Blue 12
8 PM Wed 34 34 NW 6 3183 2968 618 Blue 12
9 PM Wed 33 33 NW 6 3129 2821 471 Blue 11
10 PM Wed 32 32 NW 6 3075 2719 369 Blue 10
11 PM Wed 32 32 NW 6 3075 2719 369 Blue 10
12 Midnight Thu 31 31 N 5 2973 2669 319 Blue 9
1 AM Thu 32 32 N 5 3075 2719 369 Blue 10
2 AM Thu 31 31 N 5 2973 2669 319 Blue 9
3 AM Thu 30 30 N 5 2825 2618 268 Blue 8
4 AM Thu 30 30 N 5 2825 2618 268 Blue 8
5 AM Thu 30 30 N 5 2825 2618 268 Blue 8
6 AM Thu 29 29 N 3 2720 2568 218 Blue 7
7 AM Thu 29 29 N 3 2720 2568 218 Blue 7
8 AM Thu 30 30 N 3 2825 2618 268 Blue 8
9 AM Thu 31 31 N 3 2973 2669 319 Blue 9
10 AM Thu 32 32 N 6 3075 2719 369 Blue 10
11 AM Thu 33 33 N 6 3129 2821 471 Blue 11
12 Noon Thu 34 35 N 6 3238 3073 723 Blue 13
1 PM Thu 35 35 NE 3 3238 3073 723 Blue 13
2 PM Thu 34 34 NE 3 3183 2968 618 Blue 12
3 PM Thu 33 33 NE 3 3129 2821 471 Blue 11
4 PM Thu 32 32 E 5 3075 2719 369 Blue 10
5 PM Thu 31 31 E 5 2973 2669 319 Blue 9
6 PM Thu 31 31 E 5 2973 2669 319 Blue 9
7 PM Thu 31 31 W 6 2973 2669 319 Blue 9
8 PM Thu 31 31 W 6 2973 2669 319 Blue 9
9 PM Thu 31 31 W 6 2973 2669 319 Blue 9
10 PM Thu 31 31 NW 6 2973 2669 319 Blue 9
11 PM Thu 30 30 NW 6 2825 2618 268 Blue 8
12 Midnight Fri 30 30 NW 6 2825 2618 268 Blue 8
1 AM Fri 30 30 NW 7 2825 2618 268 Blue 8
2 AM Fri 29 29 NW 7 2720 2568 218 Blue 7
3 AM Fri 29 29 NW 7 2720 2568 218 Blue 7
4 AM Fri 28 28 N 7 2670 2518 168 Blue 6
5 AM Fri 28 28 N 7 2670 2518 168 Blue 6
6 AM Fri 28 28 N 7 2670 2518 168 Blue 6
7 AM Fri 28 28 N 7 2670 2518 168 Blue 6
8 AM Fri 29 29 N 7 2720 2568 218 Blue 7
9 AM Fri 31 31 N 7 2973 2669 319 Blue 9
10 AM Fri 33 33 N 6 3129 2821 471 Blue 11
11 AM Fri 35 35 N 6 3238 3073 723 Blue 13
12 Noon Fri 37 37 N 6 3346 3181 831 Blue 15
1 PM Fri 38 38 NE 5 3401 3235 885 Blue 16
2 PM Fri 37 37 NE 5 3346 3181 831 Blue 15
3 PM Fri 35 35 NE 5 3238 3073 723 Blue 13
4 PM Fri 33 33 N 6 3129 2821 471 Blue 11
5 PM Fri 31 31 N 6 2973 2669 319 Blue 9
6 PM Fri 30 30 N 6 2825 2618 268 Blue 8
7 PM Fri 30 30 N 7 2825 2618 268 Blue 8
8 PM Fri 30 30 N 7 2825 2618 268 Blue 8
9 PM Fri 30 30 N 7 2825 2618 268 Blue 8
10 PM Fri 30 30 N 7 2825 2618 268 Blue 8
11 PM Fri 30 30 N 7 2825 2618 268 Blue 8
12 Midnight Sat 29 29 N 7 2720 2568 218 Blue 7
1 AM Sat 29 29 N 7 2720 2568 218 Blue 7
2 AM Sat 28 28 N 7 2670 2518 168 Blue 6
3 AM Sat 28 28 N 7 2670 2518 168 Blue 6
4 AM Sat 27 27 N 7 2619 2467 117 Blue 5
5 AM Sat 27 27 N 7 2619 2467 117 Blue 5
6 AM Sat 26 26 N 7 2569 2417 67 Blue 4
7 AM Sat 26 26 N 7 2569 2417 67 Blue 4
8 AM Sat 27 27 N 7 2619 2467 117 Blue 5
9 AM Sat 29 29 N 7 2720 2568 218 Blue 7
10 AM Sat 31 31 N 7 2973 2669 319 Blue 9
11 AM Sat 34 34 N 7 3183 2968 618 Blue 12
12 Noon Sat 36 36 N 7 3292 3127 777 Blue 14
1 PM Sat 37 37 N 3 3346 3181 831 Blue 15
2 PM Sat 36 36 N 3 3292 3127 777 Blue 14
3 PM Sat 34 34 N 3 3183 2968 618 Blue 12
4 PM Sat 33 33 N 5 3129 2821 471 Blue 11
5 PM Sat 32 32 N 5 3075 2719 369 Blue 10
6 PM Sat 31 31 N 5 2973 2669 319 Blue 9
7 PM Sat 32 32 NW 6 3075 2719 369 Blue 10
8 PM Sat 32 32 NW 6 3075 2719 369 Blue 10
9 PM Sat 32 32 NW 6 3075 2719 369 Blue 10
10 PM Sat 32 32 NW 6 3075 2719 369 Blue 10
11 PM Sat 31 31 NW 6 2973 2669 319 Blue 9
12 Midnight Sun 31 31 NW 6 2973 2669 319 Blue 9
1 AM Sun 30 30 NW 6 2825 2618 268 Blue 8
2 AM Sun 30 30 NW 6 2825 2618 268 Blue 8
3 AM Sun 29 29 NW 6 2720 2568 218 Blue 7
4 AM Sun 28 28 NW 6 2670 2518 168 Blue 6
5 AM Sun 27 27 NW 6 2619 2467 117 Blue 5
6 AM Sun 27 27 NW 6 2619 2467 117 Blue 5
7 AM Sun 27 27 NW 6 2619 2467 117 Blue 5
8 AM Sun 28 28 NW 6 2670 2518 168 Blue 6
9 AM Sun 30 30 NW 6 2825 2618 268 Blue 8
10 AM Sun 33 33 NE 6 3129 2821 471 Blue 11
11 AM Sun 35 35 NE 6 3238 3073 723 Blue 13
12 Noon Sun 37 37 NE 6 3346 3181 831 Blue 15
1 PM Sun 38 38 E 3 3401 3235 885 Blue 16
2 PM Sun 37 37 E 3 3346 3181 831 Blue 15
3 PM Sun 36 36 E 3 3292 3127 777 Blue 14
4 PM Sun 34 34 E 6 3183 2968 618 Blue 12
5 PM Sun 32 32 E 6 3075 2719 369 Blue 10
6 PM Sun 31 31 E 6 2973 2669 319 Blue 9
7 PM Sun 31 31 NW 6 2973 2669 319 Blue 9
8 PM Sun 30 30 NW 6 2825 2618 268 Blue 8
9 PM Sun 30 30 NW 6 2825 2618 268 Blue 8
10 PM Sun 31 31 NW 6 2973 2669 319 Blue 9
11 PM Sun 31 31 NW 6 2973 2669 319 Blue 9
12 Midnight Mon 31 31 NW 6 2973 2669 319 Blue 9
1 AM Mon 31 31 N 7 2973 2669 319 Blue 9
2 AM Mon 30 30 N 7 2825 2618 268 Blue 8
3 AM Mon 29 29 N 7 2720 2568 218 Blue 7
4 AM Mon 28 28 N 7 2670 2518 168 Blue 6
5 AM Mon 27 27 N 7 2619 2467 117 Blue 5
6 AM Mon 26 26 N 7 2569 2417 67 Blue 4
7 AM Mon 26 26 N 6 2569 2417 67 Blue 4
8 AM Mon 27 27 N 6 2619 2467 117 Blue 5
9 AM Mon 29 29 N 6 2720 2568 218 Blue 7
10 AM Mon 32 32 N 7 3075 2719 369 Blue 10
11 AM Mon 34 34 N 7 3183 2968 618 Blue 12
12 Noon Mon 36 36 N 7 3292 3127 777 Blue 14
1 PM Mon 37 37 NE 5 3346 3181 831 Blue 15
2 PM Mon 35 35 NE 5 3238 3073 723 Blue 13
3 PM Mon 32 32 NE 5 3075 2719 369 Blue 10
4 PM Mon 29 29 E 6 2720 2568 218 Blue 7
5 PM Mon 28 28 E 6 2670 2518 168 Blue 6
6 PM Mon 29 29 E 6 2720 2568 218 Blue 7
7 PM Mon 29 29 N 8 2720 2568 218 Blue 7
8 PM Mon 29 29 N 8 2720 2568 218 Blue 7
9 PM Mon 29 29 N 8 2720 2568 218 Blue 7
10 PM Mon 29 29 NW 7 2720 2568 218 Blue 7
11 PM Mon 30 30 NW 7 2825 2618 268 Blue 8
12 Midnight Tue 31 31 NW 7 2973 2669 319 Blue 9
1 AM Tue 31 31 NW 7 2973 2669 319 Blue 9
2 AM Tue 31 31 NW 7 2973 2669 319 Blue 9
3 AM Tue 30 30 NW 7 2825 2618 268 Blue 8

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]