Detailed Predictions for: Tiger Mt
Launch Altitude (f): 1830
LZ Altitude (f): 180
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

2 DEC 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 43 43 E 20 3452 3281 1451 Blue 16
5 AM Wed 42 42 SE 17 3392 3227 1397 Blue 15
6 AM Wed 43 43 SE 21 3452 3281 1451 Blue 16
7 AM Wed 44 44 SE 22 3799 3334 1504 Blue 17
8 AM Wed 44 44 SE 21 3799 3334 1504 Blue 17
9 AM Wed 47 47 SE 22 4701 3770 1940 Blue 20
10 AM Wed 50 50 SE 22 4865 4695 2865 Blue 23
11 AM Wed 53 53 SE 20 5084 4858 3028 Blue 26
12 Noon Wed 55 56 SE 13 5340 5069 3239 Blue 29
1 PM Wed 58 59 SE 14 5528 5332 3502 Blue 32
2 PM Wed 56 56 SE 13 5340 5069 3239 Blue 29
3 PM Wed 55 55 SE 10 5284 4967 3137 Blue 28
4 PM Wed 51 51 SE 15 4920 4749 2919 Blue 24
5 PM Wed 48 48 SE 15 4756 4109 2279 Blue 21
6 PM Wed 45 45 SE 14 4142 3388 1558 Blue 18
7 PM Wed 45 45 SE 14 4142 3388 1558 Blue 18
8 PM Wed 45 45 SE 13 4142 3388 1558 Blue 18
9 PM Wed 45 45 SE 12 4142 3388 1558 Blue 18
10 PM Wed 45 45 SE 12 4142 3388 1558 Blue 18
11 PM Wed 45 45 SE 9 4142 3388 1558 Blue 18
12 Midnight Thu 43 43 SE 8 3452 3281 1451 Blue 16
1 AM Thu 43 43 SE 8 3452 3281 1451 Blue 16
2 AM Thu 41 41 SE 10 3338 3173 1343 Blue 14
3 AM Thu 41 41 SE 10 3338 3173 1343 Blue 14
4 AM Thu 40 40 SE 8 3284 3120 1290 Blue 13
5 AM Thu 38 38 SE 3 3177 2951 1121 Blue 11
6 AM Thu 38 38 SE 8 3177 2951 1121 Blue 11
7 AM Thu 38 38 SE 8 3177 2951 1121 Blue 11
8 AM Thu 39 39 SE 8 3231 3066 1236 Blue 12
9 AM Thu 41 41 S 6 3338 3173 1343 Blue 14
10 AM Thu 42 42 S 5 3392 3227 1397 Blue 15
11 AM Thu 44 44 S 5 3799 3334 1504 Blue 17
12 Noon Thu 46 46 S 5 4481 3442 1612 Blue 19
1 PM Thu 47 47 S 5 4701 3770 1940 Blue 20
2 PM Thu 47 47 S 5 4701 3770 1940 Blue 20
3 PM Thu 46 46 S 5 4481 3442 1612 Blue 19
4 PM Thu 44 44 S 3 3799 3334 1504 Blue 17
5 PM Thu 43 43 S 3 3452 3281 1451 Blue 16
6 PM Thu 41 41 S 3 3338 3173 1343 Blue 14
7 PM Thu 40 40 S 6 3284 3120 1290 Blue 13
8 PM Thu 39 39 S 6 3231 3066 1236 Blue 12
9 PM Thu 39 39 S 6 3231 3066 1236 Blue 12
10 PM Thu 39 39 S 6 3231 3066 1236 Blue 12
11 PM Thu 38 38 S 6 3177 2951 1121 Blue 11
12 Midnight Fri 38 38 S 6 3177 2951 1121 Blue 11
1 AM Fri 37 37 SE 3 3123 2805 975 Blue 10
2 AM Fri 37 37 SE 3 3123 2805 975 Blue 10
3 AM Fri 37 37 SE 3 3123 2805 975 Blue 10
4 AM Fri 37 37 SE 2 3123 2805 975 Blue 10
5 AM Fri 37 37 SE 2 3123 2805 975 Blue 10
6 AM Fri 36 36 SE 2 3069 2714 884 Blue 9
7 AM Fri 36 36 E 3 3069 2714 884 Blue 9
8 AM Fri 37 37 E 3 3123 2805 975 Blue 10
9 AM Fri 38 38 E 3 3177 2951 1121 Blue 11
10 AM Fri 40 40 E 2 3284 3120 1290 Blue 13
11 AM Fri 43 43 E 2 3452 3281 1451 Blue 16
12 Noon Fri 45 45 E 2 4142 3388 1558 Blue 18
1 PM Fri 47 47 E 2 4701 3770 1940 Blue 20
2 PM Fri 48 48 E 2 4756 4109 2279 Blue 21
3 PM Fri 47 47 E 2 4701 3770 1940 Blue 20
4 PM Fri 46 46 SE 8 4481 3442 1612 Blue 19
5 PM Fri 43 43 SE 8 3452 3281 1451 Blue 16
6 PM Fri 40 40 SE 8 3284 3120 1290 Blue 13
7 PM Fri 38 38 SE 13 3177 2951 1121 Blue 11
8 PM Fri 37 37 SE 13 3123 2805 975 Blue 10
9 PM Fri 37 37 SE 13 3123 2805 975 Blue 10
10 PM Fri 38 38 SE 13 3177 2951 1121 Blue 11
11 PM Fri 38 38 SE 13 3177 2951 1121 Blue 11
12 Midnight Sat 38 38 SE 13 3177 2951 1121 Blue 11
1 AM Sat 38 38 SE 15 3177 2951 1121 Blue 11
2 AM Sat 38 38 SE 15 3177 2951 1121 Blue 11
3 AM Sat 37 37 SE 15 3123 2805 975 Blue 10
4 AM Sat 38 38 E 8 3177 2951 1121 Blue 11
5 AM Sat 38 38 E 8 3177 2951 1121 Blue 11
6 AM Sat 38 38 E 8 3177 2951 1121 Blue 11
7 AM Sat 38 38 SE 7 3177 2951 1121 Blue 11
8 AM Sat 39 39 SE 7 3231 3066 1236 Blue 12
9 AM Sat 40 40 SE 7 3284 3120 1290 Blue 13
10 AM Sat 41 41 SE 7 3338 3173 1343 Blue 14
11 AM Sat 43 43 SE 7 3452 3281 1451 Blue 16
12 Noon Sat 45 45 SE 7 4142 3388 1558 Blue 18
1 PM Sat 46 46 SE 5 4481 3442 1612 Blue 19
2 PM Sat 46 46 SE 5 4481 3442 1612 Blue 19
3 PM Sat 45 45 SE 5 4142 3388 1558 Blue 18
4 PM Sat 43 43 SE 6 3452 3281 1451 Blue 16
5 PM Sat 42 42 SE 6 3392 3227 1397 Blue 15
6 PM Sat 40 40 SE 6 3284 3120 1290 Blue 13
7 PM Sat 39 39 SE 7 3231 3066 1236 Blue 12
8 PM Sat 39 39 SE 7 3231 3066 1236 Blue 12
9 PM Sat 39 39 SE 7 3231 3066 1236 Blue 12
10 PM Sat 39 39 SE 7 3231 3066 1236 Blue 12
11 PM Sat 39 39 SE 7 3231 3066 1236 Blue 12
12 Midnight Sun 38 38 SE 7 3177 2951 1121 Blue 11
1 AM Sun 38 38 SE 6 3177 2951 1121 Blue 11
2 AM Sun 38 38 SE 6 3177 2951 1121 Blue 11
3 AM Sun 39 39 SE 6 3231 3066 1236 Blue 12
4 AM Sun 39 39 SE 6 3231 3066 1236 Blue 12
5 AM Sun 39 39 SE 6 3231 3066 1236 Blue 12
6 AM Sun 38 38 SE 6 3177 2951 1121 Blue 11
7 AM Sun 38 38 SE 5 3177 2951 1121 Blue 11
8 AM Sun 38 38 SE 5 3177 2951 1121 Blue 11
9 AM Sun 39 39 SE 5 3231 3066 1236 Blue 12
10 AM Sun 40 40 SE 5 3284 3120 1290 Blue 13
11 AM Sun 41 41 SE 5 3338 3173 1343 Blue 14
12 Noon Sun 43 43 SE 5 3452 3281 1451 Blue 16
1 PM Sun 44 44 S 2 3799 3334 1504 Blue 17
2 PM Sun 44 44 S 2 3799 3334 1504 Blue 17
3 PM Sun 44 44 S 2 3799 3334 1504 Blue 17
4 PM Sun 43 43 SE 3 3452 3281 1451 Blue 16
5 PM Sun 42 42 SE 3 3392 3227 1397 Blue 15
6 PM Sun 41 41 SE 3 3338 3173 1343 Blue 14
7 PM Sun 40 40 SE 5 3284 3120 1290 Blue 13
8 PM Sun 40 40 SE 5 3284 3120 1290 Blue 13
9 PM Sun 40 40 SE 5 3284 3120 1290 Blue 13
10 PM Sun 40 40 SE 6 3284 3120 1290 Blue 13
11 PM Sun 40 40 SE 6 3284 3120 1290 Blue 13
12 Midnight Mon 39 39 SE 6 3231 3066 1236 Blue 12
1 AM Mon 39 39 SE 6 3231 3066 1236 Blue 12
2 AM Mon 39 39 SE 6 3231 3066 1236 Blue 12
3 AM Mon 39 39 SE 6 3231 3066 1236 Blue 12
4 AM Mon 39 39 SE 6 3231 3066 1236 Blue 12
5 AM Mon 39 39 SE 6 3231 3066 1236 Blue 12
6 AM Mon 38 38 SE 6 3177 2951 1121 Blue 11
7 AM Mon 38 38 SE 6 3177 2951 1121 Blue 11
8 AM Mon 38 38 SE 6 3177 2951 1121 Blue 11
9 AM Mon 39 39 SE 6 3231 3066 1236 Blue 12
10 AM Mon 40 40 SE 6 3284 3120 1290 Blue 13
11 AM Mon 41 41 SE 6 3338 3173 1343 Blue 14
12 Noon Mon 43 43 SE 6 3452 3281 1451 Blue 16
1 PM Mon 44 44 S 5 3799 3334 1504 Blue 17
2 PM Mon 44 44 S 5 3799 3334 1504 Blue 17
3 PM Mon 44 44 S 5 3799 3334 1504 Blue 17
4 PM Mon 43 43 SE 6 3452 3281 1451 Blue 16
5 PM Mon 43 43 SE 6 3452 3281 1451 Blue 16
6 PM Mon 42 42 SE 6 3392 3227 1397 Blue 15
7 PM Mon 42 42 SE 7 3392 3227 1397 Blue 15
8 PM Mon 42 42 SE 7 3392 3227 1397 Blue 15
9 PM Mon 43 43 SE 7 3452 3281 1451 Blue 16
10 PM Mon 43 43 SE 7 3452 3281 1451 Blue 16
11 PM Mon 43 43 SE 7 3452 3281 1451 Blue 16
12 Midnight Tue 43 43 SE 7 3452 3281 1451 Blue 16
1 AM Tue 43 43 SE 6 3452 3281 1451 Blue 16
2 AM Tue 43 43 SE 6 3452 3281 1451 Blue 16
3 AM Tue 43 43 SE 6 3452 3281 1451 Blue 16

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]