Detailed Predictions for: Tiger Mt
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 47.4995, -122.008, 1830
LZ Altitude (f): 180
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

23 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 59 59 SSW 4 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 57 57 SSW 4 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 55 55 SSE 6 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 54 54 SSE 6 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 53 53 SSE 6 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 52 52 SSE 12 16 0 1830 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 52 52 SSE 12 16 0 1830 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 52 52 SSE 12 16 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 54 54 S 11 14 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 56 57 S 11 14 0 1830 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 58 59 S 11 14 0 1830 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 61 65 SSW 8 10 0 1830 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 64 69 SSW 8 10 0 1830 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 67 73 SSW 8 10 0 1830 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 69 76 SW 5 8 2493 2388 558 Blue 1
3 PM Wed 72 78 SW 5 8 3141 2388 558 Blue 3
4 PM Wed 73 78 SW 5 8 3141 2388 558 Blue 3
5 PM Wed 74 77 SW 5 8 2865 2388 558 Blue 2
6 PM Wed 74 75 SW 5 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 72 72 SW 5 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 69 69 SSW 3 4 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 65 65 SSW 3 4 0 1830 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 62 62 SSW 3 4 0 1830 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 60 60 SSE 5 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 59 59 SSE 5 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 58 58 SSE 5 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 55 55 SSE 5 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 55 55 SSE 5 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 54 54 SSE 5 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 54 54 S 5 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 54 54 S 5 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 56 56 S 5 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 60 61 W 3 4 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 62 64 W 3 4 0 1830 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 64 67 W 3 4 0 1830 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 67 71 NW 4 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 69 73 NW 4 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 72 77 NW 4 5 2865 2388 558 Blue 2
2 PM Thu 74 79 NNW 9 11 3206 2488 658 Blue 4
3 PM Thu 75 79 NNW 9 11 3206 2488 658 Blue 4
4 PM Thu 76 79 NNW 9 11 3206 2488 658 Blue 4
5 PM Thu 76 78 N 9 11 3141 2388 558 Blue 3
6 PM Thu 75 76 N 9 11 2493 2388 558 Blue 1
7 PM Thu 73 73 N 9 11 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 70 70 NNE 5 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 67 67 NNE 5 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 65 65 NNE 5 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 63 63 ENE 6 9 0 1830 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 62 62 ENE 6 9 0 1830 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 60 60 ENE 6 9 0 1830 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 60 60 NE 5 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 59 59 NE 5 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 58 58 NE 5 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 58 58 NNE 4 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 60 60 NNE 4 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 62 62 NNE 4 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 65 66 N 5 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 68 71 N 5 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 70 74 N 5 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 73 78 N 6 9 3141 2388 558 Blue 3
12 Noon Fri 76 83 N 6 9 3467 3267 1437 Blue 8
1 PM Fri 78 85 N 6 9 3706 3398 1568 Blue 10
2 PM Fri 81 88 N 8 10 4086 3697 1867 Blue 13
3 PM Fri 83 89 N 8 10 4290 3818 1988 Blue 14
4 PM Fri 84 89 N 8 10 4290 3818 1988 Blue 14
5 PM Fri 84 87 N 6 9 3950 3575 1745 Blue 12
6 PM Fri 83 85 N 6 9 3706 3398 1568 Blue 10
7 PM Fri 81 81 N 6 9 3337 3137 1307 Blue 6
8 PM Fri 78 78 NNE 4 5 3141 2388 558 Blue 3
9 PM Fri 75 75 NNE 4 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 72 72 NNE 4 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 69 69 ENE 5 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 67 67 ENE 5 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 66 66 ENE 5 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 65 65 E 5 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 65 65 E 5 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 64 64 E 5 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 63 63 ENE 5 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 64 64 ENE 5 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 67 67 ENE 5 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 70 71 NNE 4 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 74 77 NNE 4 6 2865 2388 558 Blue 2
10 AM Sat 78 83 NNE 4 6 3467 3267 1437 Blue 8
11 AM Sat 82 88 N 5 8 4086 3697 1867 Blue 13
12 Noon Sat 86 93 N 5 8 8275 4472 2642 Blue 18
1 PM Sat 89 97 N 5 8 12207 8482 6652 White 22
2 PM Sat 92 99 NNW 6 11 12611 11066 9236 White 24
3 PM Sat 94 101 NNW 6 11 13012 12553 10723 White 26
4 PM Sat 95 100 NNW 6 11 12811 11828 9998 White 25
5 PM Sat 94 97 NNW 4 6 12207 8482 6652 White 22
6 PM Sat 92 94 NNW 4 6 8544 5855 4025 Blue 19
7 PM Sat 89 89 NNW 4 6 4290 3818 1988 Blue 14
8 PM Sat 85 85 N 5 10 3706 3398 1568 Blue 10
9 PM Sat 81 81 N 5 10 3337 3137 1307 Blue 6
10 PM Sat 78 78 N 5 10 3141 2388 558 Blue 3
11 PM Sat 75 75 NE 5 9 0 1830 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 73 73 NE 5 9 0 1830 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 72 72 NE 5 9 0 1830 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 70 70 E 5 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 69 69 E 5 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 68 68 E 5 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 68 68 ESE 5 9 0 1830 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 70 70 ESE 5 9 0 1830 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 72 72 ESE 5 9 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 76 77 E 4 9 2865 2388 558 Blue 2
9 AM Sun 79 82 E 4 9 3402 3202 1372 Blue 7
10 AM Sun 83 87 E 4 9 3950 3575 1745 Blue 12
11 AM Sun 86 92 N 5 9 7619 4271 2441 Blue 17
12 Noon Sun 89 96 N 5 9 11280 8215 6385 Blue 21
1 PM Sun 91 99 N 5 9 12611 11066 9236 White 24
2 PM Sun 94 101 N 6 9 13012 12553 10723 White 26
3 PM Sun 96 102 N 6 9 13211 13211 11381 White 26
4 PM Sun 97 102 N 6 9 13211 13211 11381 White 26
5 PM Sun 97 100 N 8 11 12811 11828 9998 White 25
6 PM Sun 95 97 N 8 11 12207 8482 6652 White 22
7 PM Sun 91 91 N 8 11 6295 4069 2239 Blue 16
8 PM Sun 87 87 N 4 6 3950 3575 1745 Blue 12
9 PM Sun 83 83 N 4 6 3467 3267 1437 Blue 8
10 PM Sun 79 79 N 4 6 3206 2488 658 Blue 4
11 PM Sun 76 76 NNE 4 6 2493 2388 558 Blue 1
12 Midnight Mon 74 74 NNE 4 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 73 73 NNE 4 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 71 71 ENE 5 9 0 1830 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 70 70 ENE 5 9 0 1830 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 68 68 ENE 5 9 0 1830 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 68 68 E 5 9 0 1830 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 69 69 E 5 9 0 1830 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 71 71 E 5 9 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 74 75 NE 4 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 78 81 NE 4 8 3337 3137 1307 Blue 6
10 AM Mon 81 85 NE 4 8 3706 3398 1568 Blue 10
11 AM Mon 84 90 NW 5 9 4493 3940 2110 Blue 15
12 Noon Mon 87 94 NW 5 9 8544 5855 4025 Blue 19
1 PM Mon 90 97 NW 5 9 12207 8482 6652 White 22
2 PM Mon 92 99 NW 5 11 12611 11066 9236 White 24
3 PM Mon 93 99 NW 5 11 12611 11066 9236 White 24
4 PM Mon 94 99 NW 5 11 12611 11066 9236 White 24
5 PM Mon 93 96 NW 5 11 11280 8215 6385 Blue 21
6 PM Mon 90 92 NW 5 11 7619 4271 2441 Blue 17
7 PM Mon 86 86 NW 5 11 3828 3463 1633 Blue 11
8 PM Mon 81 81 W 5 9 3337 3137 1307 Blue 6
9 PM Mon 77 77 W 5 9 2865 2388 558 Blue 2
10 PM Mon 74 74 W 5 9 0 1830 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]